Awesome

Good news all round but particularly in open seats. Reasonable quarters in longshots like MO-9, LA-4, NM-2, OH-7, PA-5, WY-AL  

---

by: conspiracy @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 10:12:47 AM CDT

AZ-1, IL-11, NJ-3, NJ-7, NY-25, OH-15, OH-16, VA-11

All these are looking really good.

---

by: conspiracy @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 10:25:41 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

4Q?

Shouldn't that be 1Q raised, not 4Q raised?

Visit Election Inspection for analysis, polls, and predictions!

---

by: X Stryker @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 10:15:07 AM CDT

Good catch.

Fixed -- thanks!

---

by: James L. @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 10:17:45 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Permission to copy?

James, would it be all right if I copied the data from this table to Election Inspection? I'd like to make it available as an at-your-fingertips resource.

Visit Election Inspection for analysis, polls, and predictions!

---

by: X Stryker @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 12:44:44 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Well

Obviously this data is public domain, so we can't control what anyone does with it. But it's already available as an "at your fingertips" resource right here -- check the right hand sidebar.

---

by: James L. @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 13:07:51 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Oh, neat, never mind then

I'll delete my sidebar page, no need for me to duplicate SSP then.

Visit Election Inspection for analysis, polls, and predictions!

---

by: X Stryker @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 16:03:32 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

SC-1 Charleston Newspaper has different figures

This is from Charleston.net today (4/17)

It noted Ketner outpaced Brown in fundraising - she with $413,875 to his $136,479 - during the past quarter. Brown still has raised about $125,000 more overall, however.

 

---

by: vicupstate @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 10:40:28 AM CDT

Here's Ketner's report.

Link

While she did post $414K in receipts, this chart compiles money raised -- these figures don't include candidate loans like the $50K that Ketner donated to herself.  If we did post receipts instead of money raised, many of these Republican challengers would look a bit better in terms of their 1Q hauls.

---

by: James L. @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 10:52:07 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Mistake in MI-07

You have:

MI-07   Tim Walberg   R-inc.   $265K   $604K   $823K
MI-07 Mark Schauer D $323K $751K $885K
MI-07 Sharon Renier D $349K $645K $730K

But here's Sharon Renier's actual fundraising for the quarter:

1Q Raised: $275.00 (No "K")
Cash-on-hand: $45.04
Cycle-to-date: $1,830.00

Mind you, I'd love it if she was raising $349,000. For one thing, it would mean two Democrats in a very Republican district could raise ridiculous amounts of money, and would be a great sign of strength for the party. But, unfortunately, that is not the case.

Schauer and Walberg's numbers are right, but I think maybe you accidentally copied Gary Peters' data into her row.

Still, thanks for compiling this! It's a great resource!

---

by: Fitzy @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 10:44:09 AM CDT

Whoa

That was a big mistake -- not sure how that happened.  I'll fix it...

---

by: James L. @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 10:47:39 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

What's going on in SC?

Do we have a realistic shot at either seat?  For that matter, Al-03?

It looks like OH and NY are gonna be killing fields...

---

by: omarka @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 11:31:58 AM CDT

Good question on SC

The First District (Linda Ketner vs. Henry Brown) is much more winnable IMO.  

Both disricts are GOP, but the First is MUCH more swing.  The principal cities of the First are Charleston and Myrtle Beach.  Both have been known to 'drop' their GOP leanings in certain issue/candidate situations. The 1998 Governor's race (a Democrat unseated an incumbent Republican) being a textbook example.

Charleston has a LONG and deep history of voting parochially.  Ketner needs to emphasize that as a Democrat, she would be in the majority. The district has a significant black population in Charleston. Charleston's long-serving (33 years ) mayor, Joe Riley, is a very promenient Democrat who is strongly supporting Ketner.  Riley has tremendous sway with the city's business and political power structure.  His GOTV operation is very strong also.

Ketner's dad sold the Food Lion grocery chain years ago (long before the 20/20 expose), so she and her family have plenty of money. If she is willing, she could easily self-finance.

She is best known in the Charleston area for her philanthrophy and her work with non-profits and homelessness.      

Keep your eye on this one, it is uphill to be sure, but it does have genuine potential. The incumbent is 73 and has never had a tough election campaign. I have never heard her speak, but the blog comments I have read are very complimentary.    

This one has 'sleeper' written all over it.

Here is her bio page.  

http://www.lindaketner.com/bio

---

by: vicupstate @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 19:56:52 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Three things

1. 1Q raised column - the numbers keep getting italicized here and there?  I don't see any correlation to it.  Mostly in Illinois.  

2. Scott Harper, Democratic challenger in Illinois raised something like 133K and total it says he's raised 110K.  Mistake?  Or am I missing something?

3. We should have a list of Republican held open seats where Democrats are leading the pack (For example, IL-11, AZ-01, etc.)  And vice versa for Republicans (OR-05, AL-05, etc.)

---

by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 11:42:23 AM CDT

Nevermind the italics thing

I just caught it when I came on the webpage again.  

---

by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 11:58:23 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Thanks

1. Italics correlate to shortened fundraising quarters (see the notes before the chart)

2. Thanks for catching this one -- it's now fixed.  There were a lot of numbers to compile, so we were bound to make a few mistakes.

3. Good idea.

---

by: James L. @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 12:17:10 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Here we go

Republican held Open seats where Democrats are leading the fundraising:
AZ-01 - Ann Kirkpatrick, IL-11 - Debbie Halvorson, LA-04 - Paul Carmouche, NY-25 - Dan Maffei, NY-26 - Jon Powers, OH-07 Sharon Neurhardt, VA-11 Gerry Connelly

Democratic held Open seats where Republicans are leading the fundraising:
AL-05 - Wayne Parker, OR-05 - Mike Erikson

Also, I recommend putting up numbers for NM-03, NJ-01, CO-02, and ME-01 for their respective Democratic primaries.  Although ME-01 probably has Pingree running away with it, and Don Wiviott sounded like he was going to self fund whatever it took to win, so that race might not be needed either.  

Also - FL-15 = competitive Republican open-seat district where Democrats don't have a frontrunner or top tier candidate.  I suppose it looks like Bill Posey (R) is going to start running away with it financially.  

---

by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 13:08:34 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I also forgot

OH-15 - Mary Jo Kilroy, OH-16 - John Boccieri
both are leading their open seat races.  NJ-03 - John Adler, NJ-07 - Linda Stender, and LA-06 - Don Cazayoux

---

by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 13:48:42 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Hopefully

John Barrow can feel safe enough now to take a step or two to the left, if he's so inclined. His voting record makes sense for, say, an R+10 district, but the guy's got a D+2 that's almost half African-American.

I think it's time to add a few more names to the "Likely R" column of the big SSP House scoreboard. I'd start with Tom Perriello in VA-05. He's clearly playing to win. (In fact, he seems like a great candidate for Blue Majority endorsement.) I might move Jane Mitakides in OH-03 up to "Likely R" too... she's outraising Turner, it's an R+3 that was held by a Dem prior to Turner, and with at least three hotter targets in Ohio, this one might sneak past everyone on the radar.

As for OR-05, I don't think it's as dire as the numbers first look. Schrader and Marks only jumped in the race about a month ago, and Erickson is a self-funding millionaire who's probably just writing himself checks. (Actually, do these FEC numbers reflect checks you write yourself? I'd never stopped to wonder about that till now.) As for Mannix, well, he has access to the coffers of well-known millionaire sex weirdo Loren Parks. But I think this is one the netroots needs to get on top of once the primary is over; the lay of the land favors the Dems, but they'll need outside infusions of money.

---

by: Crisitunity @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 12:23:29 PM CDT

Our numbers...

...don't include candidate loans, so no, the "4Q Raised" column doesn't reflect personal donations.  We do include all cash, including personal donations/loans in the CoH column, though.

Yeah, the winner of the OR-05 Dem primary will get all the money they need, I'm sure.

---

by: James L. @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 12:33:38 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

My list of notables

AZ-08, woh!  Tim Bee is going to be incredibly formidable and we very well could lose.  This will be a race we will need to watch and keep an eye on.  They already had polling a bit back showing both well under 50% and with Giffords with not much of a lead.  

CA-46, why isn't Rohrabacher raising anything?  It's a little late for retirements.

CT-4, looking good!  

Florida Trio, well done!  I imagine Ros-Lehtinen will pick-up her fundraising now that she sees she has a challenge.  FL-18 is certainly our least likely pick-up of the three, and it shows.  The other two, awesome.  Raul Martinez is putting on the A-game.

IA-4, Latham's challenger didn't do half-bad.  The seat is already Democratic leaning, I could see this being one of the races that coattails help a bit and it being one of the first seats to flip Dem if the election moves past just Democrats doing well to Democrats obliterating and taking everything possible with them.  Kind of like in 2006 with Laesch (if that's how you spell it), safe incumbent and then all of a sudden, wait what he lost?  If the fundraising continues to be this on par and if this Kurt Meyer runs a good race, who knows, maybe the overwhelming anti-Republican attitude could carry him over.

IL-10, man is Kirk raising some duckets.....  It came close last time, add in Obama coattails and I think we've got it.

KS-2, probably the most endangered incumbent.  And Boyda doesn't want any DCCC money, great principle, could cost her the race.  We'll just have to see...

LA-4, excellent to see us outraising the Republicans.  Hell, we all thought 2008 would bring about the end of Democrats in Louisiana, could 2008 actually be the reemergence of Democrats in Louisiana?!

MN-6, my home CD, I really don't think we have much of a shot here....  Bachmann is a complete nutjob and we can do great advertising that but...  I don't know, Im quite pessimistic yet hopeful.

MO-6, EXCELLENT!!!  Kay Barnes is an excellent candidate and her fundraising is spectacular.

NM-1, I'm also pessimistic about this race.  This is the one seat I think the GOP did a great job at recruiting and I think this will be the one race to really disappoint us.  This should be our seat, it goes blue for President, but for some reason, I feel like we will lose...  Maybe it's because there has to be one seat I feel we wont win come election day.

NY-29, is Randy Kuhl even running for re-election?  I predict another NY-GOP slaughter in 2008.  They'll lose three congressional seats, the state Senate, and will only have three congressional seats left!  One that will be redistricted out and two that will be ours pending retirements.  Seems almost impossible that such a large state will eventually have 0 Republicans at the federal level but congrats everyone, the Dems did it first!

OH-2, I still don't think Wulsin will win or that we should bother spending a cent (it seems to me she will just lose the following election after she wins with Schmidt gone) but her fundraising is quite awesome so we'll see.  Still seems like a waste of DCCC funds....

OR-5, why don't we have a candidate yet who is going to actually do something?!

SC-01, what the hell?  Who is this Linda Ketner and how did she kick so much ass?

VA-5, looks like a race we should/could get behind

VA-10, same as above, looks like a good race.  And Warner coattails, those will help out VA-5,10, 11

WA-8, we will win this one

WV-2, very disappointed we lost Unger, very impressed with Barth.  Kind of sucks she wasn't in the race from the get-go getting to raise money.  Barth is at such a disadvantage now.

---

by: Andrew @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 12:35:27 PM CDT

Fanastic stuff

not only great news, but very useful

I am working on a BIG diary....an analysis of every race that was close (less than 10 points) in 2006, and this table will make it a lot easier to update fundraising information

---

by: plf515 @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 14:38:45 PM CDT

Does it net COH?

That is, is debt subtracted?

---

by: plf515 @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 14:41:34 PM CDT

Nope

In most cases, debt is retired after the campaign is over.  And in many cases, the debt is often a personal loan that a candidate can easily forgive if they choose to.  So no, we don't subtract debt from cash-on-hand.

---

by: James L. @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 14:48:46 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

no. I asked james in an e-mail

"Not all debt is created equal"
Rich guys can pay off their debt like that, whereas others can't.  So it can be misleading in some cases.  

---

by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 14:49:05 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Segall, AL-03

Being from the South, I can tell you that the Josh Segall race is one to watch.  That district is ripe for flipping, with nearly 50% Dem performance and being 1/3 African-American.  The last challenger got almost 40% of the vote while spending only $7000 to Rogers' $1 million, and in '02 the Dem lost be less than 4000 votes after the DCCC pulled their money with 12 days to go (crazy).  Segall is worked a bunch of campaigns and knows what he's doing, as evidenced by these fundraising numbers...he outraised the incumbent 2.5 to 1 and brought in more than any other congressional candidate, D or R, incumbent or challenger, in the entire state!  Go Segall in AL-03!
This is another big Obama effect race too...  

---

by: jhaffner @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 15:33:30 PM CDT

Bluegrass State Blues

I'm getting concerned about John Yarmuth in KY-03.  He knocked out Anne Northup 51-49 in 2006, after she had held the seat for ten years.  She has always proven to be a fundraising monster along with her mentor, Mitch McConnell.  

I was so happy when Yarmuth won and he has not disappointed.  His Progressive Punch score is 95%, and for a district that is something like D +1, that is better than we could hope for from a freshman.  Indeed, considering the PVI and his PP score, he may be the most outstanding freshman we have.  He has condemned Bush's reckless Iraq policy and has voted against expanding Bush's unchecked warrantless wiretapping powers on American citizens.  And he's from Kentucky!

In 2006, there was no presidential race and no state-wide race in KY.  This year, current polls have McCain winning KY by more than 30 points (it will come down).  Plus, McConnell will pour money into Ky-03 (his old hometown) to help Northup.

In 1Q, Northup outraised Yarmuth, although he still leads in cash on hand, having had more time.  

I'd love to see the Netroots adopt Yarmuth, or really push to help him out.  He seems to be off our radar screens, and he deserves better.  Indeed, only 27 contributions to him have been made on Act Blue.  http://actblue.com/entity/fund...

---

by: hilltopper @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 16:48:06 PM CDT

Most outstanding freshman.

   According to your criteria I think that might be Steve Kagen (WI-08).  He beat the Speaker of the Wisconsin House in 2006 in an R+4 district.  He's very progressive.  

John McCain lets lobbyists shape his economic policy

---

by: cilerder86 @ Fri Apr 18, 2008 at 00:22:39 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Mostly because he self-funded a lot...

But I'm not complaining.  He donated, I think, around 2.4 million of his own money in the race.  

---

by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Fri Apr 18, 2008 at 08:38:38 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Gender trends

Currently, slightly less than 10% of House Republicans are women (19 out of 198 filled seats per the Clerk of the House of Representatives).  For Democrats the number is much higher and is around 22%.

For Democrats, women were the leading fund-raisers (presumed leader and/or nominee) in 28 of the 123 races on your big board.  That percentage (22.7%) is not markedly different than for Democratic House members as a whole.  Five of the Democratic women were incumbents defending their seats.

Among Republicans, women were the leading fund-raisers in just 13 of 123 seats with eight of the 13 being Republican incumbents defending their seats.  One of the remaining five, Anne Northrup, is seeking to regain her seat.  Again, the results are surprisingly typical for current Republican House membership as a whole.

Given the number of retirements (Deb Pryce, Heather Wilson, Barbara Cubin)and deaths (JoAnn Davis), the number of Republican women is likely to decline slightly while the number of Democratic women in the House is likely to increase.

Last cycle, 27 of the 30 successful Democratic challengers raised $1 million or more and one of the other three (Nancy Boyda) went over $1 million if DCCC expenditures are counted).  Only David Loebsack and Carol Shea-Porter managed to win with less and Loebsack was competing against Jim Leach in a race where neither man spent much (Leach was a little over $500 K; Loebsack was over $400 k).
Shea-Porter while nowhere near a million yet has already raised a lot more than she did in 2006.

---

by: David Kowalski @ Fri Apr 18, 2008 at 04:15:54 AM CDT

MN-03 Erik Paulsen #'s

Are off.  He's raised over 700K total.  

---

by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Fri Apr 18, 2008 at 21:17:55 PM CDT