I hope Holland can get his name off the ballot

And with lower turnout, possibly throw Childers over the 50% mark.  Imagine what the DCCC could do if they undercut the NRCC by jumping in early to try and end it now.  

---

by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 12:53:05 PM CDT

While I agree

the DCCC should get involved in this race, I think it is best to wait until the last week to spend money on TV ads. If we spend too early the NRCC will try to match, or even beat, what we spend. By waiting until the last minute, they cannot respond. While it would be nice for them to burn through some of their limited resources, I would rather win the seat. Plus, losing here would hurt them in fundraising more than the money we could force them to spend to win here.

---

by: publius2481 @ Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 19:17:58 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

And we thought LA-6 was giving the GOP heartburn!

I don't think you can underestimate the massive bombshell potential of a win here. Could Tom Cole survive losing a double digit PVI seat in the Deep South? Their fundraising would go completely dry, morale would be rock-bottom and they would probably have to put everything left behind McCain. It would also likely bring on more retirements. Worse case scenario they have to spend some of what they don't have to save it abandoning poor Woody in the process.

---

by: conspiracy @ Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 13:10:05 PM CDT

Alphabetical!

Go look at this diary on dKos.

Can the Dems Win One in Mississippi on 4/22? by RBH

www.dailykos.com/story/2008/4/3/13435/91297/632/489572

Great maps and commentary. But look at the Sample Ballot he has posted there. OMG. The candidate's names are in alphabetical order.

Could that possibly be true at every precinct in every county? Because if it is true, then Childers starts off with an unearned 2 to 5% advantage from being the first name listed!

Well, it could be true only for the Sample, and it will be different at the various ballot boxes.

But every pollster rotates the names when talking to voters because of the well-established bias toward the first name listed. It could be huge in a race like this.

It could be true. There's weirder stuff than that in Mississippi, weirder in this election: the ballot does not identify the Democrat or the Repub, and it does not remove the names of the losers of the first primary!

Anyway, I'm reminded why I wanted to change my name to Aaron Aardvark!

---

by: WoodyNYC @ Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 13:12:10 PM CDT

Hm, looks like a familar diary

but yes.. the alphabetical thing is helpful here.

And so is the "no partisan designations" thing (sorry partisans, it'll help us)

---

by: RBH @ Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 14:53:54 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Insanity

Can anyone explain why the primary losers' names are still on the ballot? What's the point of having a primary in that case?

---

by: KCinDC @ Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 13:30:28 PM CDT

Here's the deal

The primary was for the November ballot, so the challengers already had their names filed for the special election ballot as well.  Once they lost the primary for the November general election, the primary losers all said that they would not campaign for the special election.

A bit confusing for the voters, to be sure.

---

by: James L. @ Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 13:35:00 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

What the hell is going on

If we win a distict like MS-1, then this election could be an absolute blow out at every government level and we should be looking at 30+ seats for sure with 50 not totally unattainable.  And I am dead serious, regardless of the special circumstances of this being a special election, winning this would be the nail in the coffon for the GOP and we should be challenging every incumbent in every area of the country because NO ONE is happy with the Republicans these days.

This makes me believe that 2006 was like 1930 and this year will be like 1932 even more.  Lets hope so!

---

by: Andrew @ Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 13:38:33 PM CDT

I getting my popcorn and root beer ready...

to watch the dogfight...

---

by: bonncaruso @ Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 14:02:17 PM CDT

Holy cow

Two things about winning this:

1) If we won this one and LA-6, the number of Repubs in the House would go under 200, which could be an important psychological benchmark that strengthens the D brand a little.

2) If Childers wins this I'd expect to see several more retirements, even though it's getting a little late.

---

by: Seth D @ Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 14:15:46 PM CDT

This would be a morale-crushing win.

But we're a long way from that happening just yet!

---

by: James L. @ Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 14:22:39 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

True.

My "ifs" are pretty big ifs.

---

by: Seth D @ Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 08:12:29 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

How much longer is the retirement season ?

How many and which states will not have hit their Filing deadlines by April 22?    

---

by: vicupstate @ Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 16:04:08 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Three wildcards

Lee County has three candidates on the ballot. McCullough, Holland, and John Wages. Holland and McCullough have basically given up and Wages is an official and a member of the Green Party.

So if we go into a runoff due to the protest votes, then that's not all that bad. It's a few more weeks to get Childers strong and weaken Davis.

Although it would be irritating if Childers wins 49% and has to go to a runoff due to the Lee County vote.

---

by: RBH @ Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 14:55:53 PM CDT

Hell

even getting close is good enough for me. Imagine if even Childers falls just short of victory in a district this Republican and this Southern.

This is the heart of the Republican south.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

---

by: nrafter530 @ Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 18:43:34 PM CDT

The numbers on this poll remind me...

...of an earlier poll of another race on extremely red territory.

There was some poll way back when showing Trauner (D) getting 41% and Lummis (R) getting 40% in WY-AL.

Boy, do I love it when Democrats show themselves to be the true big-tent party by running so strong in red districts it seems unbelievable.  And once we win these districts...that will be a unique sense of joy.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

---

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 01:28:16 AM CDT