How Accurate Is This Poll?

Adding all those numbers together, it only accounts for 60% of Democratic Primary voters. Where are the other 40%? Are they ALL undecided?

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by: Gatenmaru @ Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 05:51:45 AM CDT

Good question

A number of questions have been raised about this poll. But that's all a bit of a side issue as far as the Merkley campaign.

Jeff Merkley has an overwhelming dominance in endorsements and has only today begun to run his very first TV ads.

Steve Novick has had a couple different TV ad buys dating back to late January (I believe). It should be surprising that the only candidate who has run ads would have a better name recognition. But he shot a lot of his money on those efforts.

So here we are in the closing weeks of the campaign. Jeff Merkley has far more money to buy ads with and he has totally dominated the endorsement race.

Seems to me like a very smartly managed campaign. Which, frankly, is what it's going to take to send Senator Gordon Smith back to his frozen vegetable plant in Pendleton.

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by: Preemptive Karma @ Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 13:27:21 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

that's inaccurate info

Novick's ad buys were infinitesimal, MAYBE $5,000 total. They ran once or twice on shows like Oprah, Letterman and an Oregon basketball game. To say "he shot a lot of his money on those efforts" is patently false. By far most of the viewings were national earned media, not paid media in-state.

There is also no info on who has "far more money," since neither candidate has announced their totals yet. We do know that Merkley bought $57,000 for his ad in four markets starting this week, while Novick is in for $60,000 across six markets. Through April, I would venture that they'll be very competitive in buys.

Merkley has gotten more endorsements, but Novick has gotten the most coveted individual nod (popular former Gov Kitzhaber), and also the most revered union nod, of the OEA. He also has the support of the two most influential and popular City Councillors in Portland.

And this is only opinion, but waiting until four weeks before balloting to start your voter outreach doesn't sound smart to me at all.

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by: torridjoe @ Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 15:56:08 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

No thats not accurate

The numbers that the previous poster cited are wildly inaccurate according to the MSM and Merkley's TV blitz will help him turn around a name ID gap resulting from his opponent has being on the air when Merkley hasn't been on the air yet.

Im supporting Jeff Merkley because hes a proven progressive that brings people together to get things done.  Jeff Merkley really embraces Obama's vision of building coalition uniting the country to bring about progressive change while his opponent Steve Novick has called Obama a fraud  Jeff Merkley is the only candidate in the race with a progressive vision of how we move our country forward.

PS.  Merkley's add is darn good and in a time with so many important issues from the war to global warming to the economy, it is nice to see a politician relying on substance rather than gimmicks

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by: bdunn @ Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 21:16:08 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

thanks for the correction

I totally omitted the general buys, thinking only of the special spots they picked (like Oprah, Letterman, etc.) So that was way off, thank you for correcting the record. I will say in my defense that I certainly hadn't seen Mapes' rundown before writing, and I'm not sure it was even published when I did. The current buy amounts have also been updated, from just a day or two ago (and IIRC, also from a Mapes blog entry). Sorry for the errors, SSP.

That said, it ran fairly briefly almost three months ago. Those must have been SOME ads. They not only helped Novick's name ID, they helped Candy Neville's somehow too!

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by: torridjoe @ Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 15:03:46 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Looks bad for Merkley

Merkley ought to close well, as he's got the money and most of the establishment support, but that he's in third behind a Kucinich/Sheehan supporter has got to be concerning for him. From what I can tell he's well known amongst high-info voters, but if he's polling this low then he may struggle elsewhere amongst people who don't know he's the House Speaker.

Novick definitely has the advantage now. If he can keep winning the debates, keep his ads entertaining and not make any major slip ups, my money's on him to win it by about 45% to 40%. And yes, I probably have just doomed his candidacy by saying that.

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by: Englishlefty @ Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 08:15:28 AM CDT

I have long believed that Steve COULD win

But in recent weeks I am really beginning to feel that Steve WILL win.

It feels like all the dominoes are falling in his direction.

We haven't seen his Q1 fundraising numbers but I keep hearing that they're very good. I know he's pre-invested in a good amount of TV time in the key Oregon markets. I know he'll have brilliant new ads to go with the two that everyone has already seen:

He's got Russ Feingold's ad guys working for him. He's got a compelling personal biography and he's got solid progressive views that play well to those concerned with tax fairness and fiscal responsibility. This thing is breaking Steve Novick's way right now. It's not over yet, but with hard work and some decent breaks he will win.

And it will be a great day.

Then ... we all get to enjoy watching him go after Gordon Smith.

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by: portlandia @ Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 19:38:16 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Remember when polls seemed to show HRC as unbeatable?

Early poll leads are notoriously unreliable. That's not to say they are bogus, just that they aren't relevant to election day.

For example, Hillary Clinton peaked far too early. Remember when poll after poll showed her with a seemingly insurmountable lead in both national and state polls? Now compare those early polls to the delegate count. I rest my case. I mean no offense to HRC or her campaign, but they peaked too early. That's just the reality.

As you say, Merkley has a LOT more money. He's just started a MAJOR media blitz and is going to keep it sustained. Naysayers will chime in trying to tell you how little money Merkley has available. They are blowing smoke, as the next several weeks will make abundantly clear.

Combine Merkley's significant financial advantage with his overwhelming domination in the endorsement portion of the race and we begin to see a picture emerging of a very sagely managed campaign that knows when to peak.

BTW, Merkley's dominance in the endorsement part of the race is NOT done. More are coming!

 

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by: Preemptive Karma @ Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 21:05:53 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Voters pamphlet

People in other states underestimate the power of the voter's pamphlet in Oregon.  I know when I first moved here I did.  The state is entirely mail in ballots so you get your voters pamphlet at the same time as your ballot here and people especially the undecideds, who make up 40% of the poll (a surprisingly low number from my phone banking) actually read it. The voters pamphlet and vote by mail is a huge boon to candidates with great resumes and endorsements like Merkley.

I think Merkley is going to get a big late break because of people seeing all hes accomplished in the legislature and the coalition hes built to unite Oregon and defeat Gordon Smith.

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by: bdunn @ Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 21:25:34 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I don't quite know . . .

. . . what to make of Novick's candidacy. On the one hand, he seems to have the Wellstonian quality of bursting onto the scene as a dynamic outsider with real ideas, taking the establishment by surprise and potentially winning the support of the public. On the other hand . . . well, he can seem a bit outlandish, such as his tirade against U2's Bono at this past weekend's debate.  That bit reminded me of a candidate who was a far, far cry from Wellstonian greatness-- Geoffrey Fieger!  (Yes, I know, to be fair, we Dems didn't choose Fieger, Dr. Kevorkian's lawyer, on our own; it was because of that damn open primary in Michigan that the GOP saddled us with that nut.  But, still, it certainly didn't help us down-ballot when Fieger let loose with bizarre comments!) 

I know that many of our Oregonian denizens here are passionately in favor of one candidate or the other; I am curious as to what the average joe on the street thinks of each at this point.  While Novick may very well be ahead, this particular poll seems a little suspect . . . 

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by: The Caped Composer @ Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 08:46:56 AM CDT

Local take...Merkley can get it done, Novick's too unprofessional.

I don't live and breathe Oregon politics yet, mostly because I'm still stunned by how un-progressive things in Salem seem, the not-invented-here attitude I pick up on.  But here's my take, nonetheless...

First off, people are still bummed that neither Blumenauer nor DeFazio jumped into the race.  This is a pretty quiet race.

Merkley's not the most exciting candidate, and not particularly recognized, he's only been Oregon House Majority Leader since 2007.  He did manage to get some good laws through last year with a narrow 31-29 majority, so he's got some decent political chops.

Novick, on the other hand...

"Steve often makes his points by attacking and insulting," Merkley said after reading a host of acerbic comments Novick has published in letters and on the Internet about Sen. Hillary Clinton, Sen. Barack Obama and others.

"I keep trying to picture you going to Sen. Obama or President Obama and saying, 'I've called you a special interest fraud, but please help me with those timber payments for Oregon,' " Merkley said, drawing chuckles from the audience at the City Club of Portland.

http://www.oregonlive.com/poli...

Novick's lost my vote.  Too unprofessional.  Attack the problem, not the person.

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by: JimM @ Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 18:30:31 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Novick is for real

If you are goint to quote verbatim Merkley's "analysis" of Novick's candidacy. let's take a look at Novick's point of view regarding the key difference between him and Merkley:

"I am willing to criticize other Democrats when they depart from progressive prinicples.  The difference, Jeff, is that you are willing to depart from progressive principles in order to attack me."

Steve's vocabulary can be over-the-top, excessively colorful, however you want to word it. But he's brilliant, wonky, passionately progressive, honest and fearless.

Personally, if you offer me a choice between Merkley and Novick, I'm giving my vote to the guy who always tells the truth. That would be Steve Novick.

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by: portlandia @ Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 19:25:38 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I'd rather win the general than the primary.

And I believe Merkley has a better chance at that, I believe that Novick's comments are too polarizing.

Having said that, either of them would be an improvement over Gordon Smith.  Does anyone here doubt that, if re-elected, he'll take a hard right turn until the next election cycle?

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by: JimM @ Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 21:52:05 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

How does

Merkley criticizing Steve for attacking both Democratic presidential candidates makes him "departing from progressive principles" how?

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 23:20:46 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Merkley attacked Novick for advocating

raising the Social Security income cap, and equalizing tax rates on earned and unearned income.

THERE's your departure from progressive principles.

Merkley tested some ugly Republican-lite negative messages like "Steve Novick will raise your taxes."

Not my idea of progressive principles at work.

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by: portlandia @ Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 00:30:26 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Weird poll

I usually like SUSA's work but this poll just doesn't feel right.

Consider this:

Do you think Novick would be polling 7 points better with people over 65 than with voters under 34? This poll says he is.

Do you think David Lorea a guy who asked me twice to be his campaign manager (truly the sign of a legitimate candidate) is really getting 6% of the vote despite having no money no press? This poll says he is.

At least Lorea and Neville are were mentioned in the article talking about how they were barred from the city club debate but has anyone read anything about Obrist? Do you think that Roger Obrist is really getting five percent of the vote? This poll says he is.

Do you think that more than one out of every four voters is voting for Obrist, Goberman, Lorea, or Candy Neville? This poll says thats happening.

I have done a lot of phone banking in this race and probably talked to several hundred voters and not once have I heard anyone mention anyone besides Merkley or Novick though this poll suggests 1 in 4 voters will vote for someone besides those two.

The strangest one is this: According to the poll, 70% of voters said they had their minds made up. Of the 70% who have made up their mind, 37% said they were undecided. Does this make any sense at all?

Im not saying that it doesn't mean Merkley has a hill to climb but Novick went on TV early and Merkley hasn't yet and will have more money to spend on ads. Plus Merkley has a better on the ground opperation with his union support and more field organizers than Novick so if this poll is an outlier and in fact the candidates are neck and neck like the conventional wisdom before the poll, Merkley should be worried but is hardly done considering the time he has to leverage his advantages.

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by: bdunn @ Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 10:52:37 AM CDT

Ads starting today will help Merkley

As a Merkley supporter, I would have much preferred different numbers here, but there is still plenty of reason to be optimistic.  As noted in the post, Merkley's first TV ads start airing today.  The ad buy is pretty large, so a lot more people will know more about Jeff Merkley shortly.

Merkley has also been performing well in debates.  His performance at the Portland City Club really helped his cause, and his momentum is building as we head towards May 20.

40% of those polled were undecided, and Merkley will be able to convince plenty of those that he's the right person to knock Gordon Smith out of the Senate.

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by: greivel @ Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 10:59:09 AM CDT

reminds of one of those neal/hagen polls

where one was leading the other 23-16 with the rest undecided.  it tells me that hardly anyone has heard of either candidate or is paying attention.  not only are the remaining 40% undecided completely in flux, but most of the supporters of the 4 other than merkley and novick (totalling more than 25% of those polled) will not stick with  them once they focus on the race.

effective tv, radio and direct mail should define the race in the next few weeks.

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by: st paul sage @ Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 11:23:45 AM CDT

Undecided is the big winner

That's good. It means people like both Merkley and Novick, so either will have strong support no matter who wins.

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by: duffman @ Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 21:49:35 PM CDT