While Democrats are licking their chops over the chance to snag another special election victory in the special election to replace Rep. Richard Baker (R), Republicans are reportedly fretting over the chance that the GOP front-runner could end up losing the seat to Democratic state Rep. Don Cazayoux. From Roll Call:
Portions of a GOP poll conducted March 17-18 and obtained by Roll Call showed Jenkins down three points in a head-to-head matchup with Cazayoux. That's not great math to begin with in a district that gave President Bush a 19-point margin of victory in the 2004 presidential campaign and repeatedly sent former Rep. Richard Baker (R) to Congress by large margins.
But the numbers get worse when looking at specific important voting blocs in the Baton Rouge-based 6th district. Men 55 and older preferred Cazayoux 51 percent to 38 percent, voters who turned out in the special March primary would vote for Cazayoux 53 percent to 39 percent and those voters who said they are definitely going to vote in the special preferred Cazayoux by nine points.
Cazayoux will face off with state Rep. Michael Jackson in the Democratic runoff election this Saturday, while Woody Jenkins will square off with lobbyist Laurinda Calongne for the GOP nod. The winners of the runoff will advance to the special general election on May 3rd.