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LA-06: Internal Poll Has Republicans Worried

by: James L.

Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 12:36 AM EDT

While Democrats are licking their chops over the chance to snag another special election victory in the special election to replace Rep. Richard Baker (R), Republicans are reportedly fretting over the chance that the GOP front-runner could end up losing the seat to Democratic state Rep. Don Cazayoux.  From Roll Call:

Portions of a GOP poll conducted March 17-18 and obtained by Roll Call showed Jenkins down three points in a head-to-head matchup with Cazayoux. That's not great math to begin with in a district that gave President Bush a 19-point margin of victory in the 2004 presidential campaign and repeatedly sent former Rep. Richard Baker (R) to Congress by large margins.

But the numbers get worse when looking at specific important voting blocs in the Baton Rouge-based 6th district. Men 55 and older preferred Cazayoux 51 percent to 38 percent, voters who turned out in the special March primary would vote for Cazayoux 53 percent to 39 percent and those voters who said they are definitely going to vote in the special preferred Cazayoux by nine points.

Cazayoux will face off with state Rep. Michael Jackson in the Democratic runoff election this Saturday, while Woody Jenkins will square off with lobbyist Laurinda Calongne for the GOP nod.  The winners of the runoff will advance to the special general election on May 3rd.

James L. :: LA-06: Internal Poll Has Republicans Worried
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OH MY GOD!  It DOESN'T Get better than this!  Ahhhhahahaha.  Better take it all while we can.  Lets rock this race!  

Here's a link to Cazayoux's website:

how much will the NRCC blow on this race only to see the seat lost before their eyes?

They need the practice
They're gonna lose LA-04 too. And Ms. Mary Landrieu is gonna show Mr Turncoat Kennedy why he should never trust anything Karl Rove says. What a bunch of Repub losers we're looking at in Louisiana.

What do you guys think? -
I say on Sunday, (assuming Cazayoux wins the Democrats run-off) we put on an online fundraiser, make a group page on actblue for SSP, DKos, and Openleft, where we try to get 1,000 people to donate $20, for a total $20,000.  

That way, we'll be telling people like CQ Politics why they had this race rated as a toss up, before they put it as lean-Republican again.  We'll also be drawing a line in the sand to the NRCC saying, "We're here, and if you cross this line, I reckon we've got a fight on our hands."

We can make a hell of a difference here.  
- - - - - - - - - - Don Cazayoux v. Woody Jenkins
Total Raised ---- $612,745 v. $324,835
Cash On Hand - $159,870 v. $57,221

what I have been saying
Cazayoux is popular, Jenkins has lost four consecutive races for higher office. We are going to win. I've laid out the reasons twice. Jenkins doesn't seem to have much fire in his belly, at 66, his campaigning and fundraising point to that. Not only that , but the population of the area has increased by  almost 100,000 due to Katrina, including a huge increase in the black population, and huge influx of more liberal voters, and it's turned the entire local environment aganinst Republicans.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

kinda like oberweis
very similar, multiple time statewide loser running one more time for a reliable republican seat with an internal poll weeks before the election showing the democrat winning.  i'll have an icy black voodoo to celebrate if the result is the same!

i'm a little surprised that the liberal netroots have not embraced the less electable, more liberal candidate in this race as they so often (and i might be talking about leslie byrne:)

If you're talking about Leslie Byrne
How is she less electable?

[ Parent ]
Probably electable
Probably electable in a strong Democratic year. Though many argued otherwise when Matt Stoller put his article on her up on dKos. It is, after all, a moderate, pro-business, and until recently Repub district, and Ms. Byrne does not come across as a moderate.

My complaint is, Why the hell did we get involved in a highly contested race in a costly media market between two candidates who call themselves "anti-War progressives"? We all wanted a candidate in Virginia, so why not Tom Perriello in VA-05, or Glenn Nye in VA-02 or even Judy Feder VA-10, another NOVA race but one which seems to be primary-free?

A TV minute for a commercial in Baton Rouge must cost about 1/20 of what it's gonna cost Byrne in the Washington-Baltimore market. I'd prefer to see the 20 ads in Baton Rouge. Or put an ad on the air in Tulsa AND Oklahoma City several times for what just one minute will cost in the D.C. Metro.

Why does NOVA need us, and do they need us more than Baton Rouge or Tulsa or Reno or Boise? I just hate to see our little money diverted from more deserving races and poured into the NOVA money pit. Really hate it.

I put up a diary here that was actually a Rant on this subject, if you want to dig deeper. Or Search at dKos to see how controversial the Byrne pick was, if you wanna get some real negativity on Ms Byrne in particular.

[ Parent ]
Right on.
You convinced me.  

[ Parent ]
I can understand how endorsing Byrne was controversial, but
wasn't she already a congresswoman?  She can fundraise a lot, she has some solid name recognition.  I don't see her as significantly less electable than Denneny or Connoly (I know I guttered the spelling there)

[ Parent ]
I'm wondering
Did you go to my Diary here a week or so ago, or go to dKos to see what others said about her electability? I really don't want to repeat their points here again.

As for fundraising, can we have it both ways? "She can fundraise a lot" you say -- so why do we need to throw our money into her race while starving others like Tom Perriello in VA-05 or Andrew Rice in Oklahoma? Well, actually, her main primary opponent, Gerry Connelly, quickly outraised her this year.

[ Parent ]
I should also clarify that there was a sense of that.
The blog pushed Andy Kopplin.  He was a more liberal candidate, he didn't even make it to the runoff though.  

[ Parent ]
i apologize for injecting another thread here
but i believe leslie byrne is less electable because she lost 11th congressional seat as an incumbent (with 45% of the vote)and she is seen as a more extreme candidate.  she has name recognition, but people who have lost races don't tend to have "positive" name rec (see oberwies, woody jenkins) and have a hard time improving their standing because people's opinions are well defined.

she has every right to run, but i think it's odd that the netroots would get involved in the primary.  i support the most electable candidate in every race where i can discern one, and i don't see that ms. byrne is the most electable.

That was in 1994
A lot of incumbents lost their seats in that year.

Also, Gerry Connolly has been sucking up to Tom Davis lately. I can't say that makes me want to support him.

[ Parent ]
Internal Poll Has Republicans Worried
The Internal Poll Has Republicans Worried.But it is a political earthquake. Democrats have not been able to win a single statewide office in Ohio for most of the past decade -- and are completely shut out of power in the capitol at this moment.The impression these Republicans had is that support for GOP candidates had nose-dived this summer -- in part because of the chaos conveyed by the daily televised scenes of destruction in Iraq and Lebanon and in part because of the dismal reputation built by the Republican Congress that is home to many of the endangered GOP candidates.


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