Associated probabilities?

Would you say something like:

Likely = 75% chance
Lean = 60% chance
Tossup = 50% chance

and those not on the list, say, 99% chance?

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by: plf515 @ Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 05:34:37 AM CDT

It took

some digging in the myDD cesspool, but I found Chris Bowers' exemplary last House prediction diary prior to the 2006 election, which has his projected and actual numbers for each category.

GOP held seats:

Lean Dem: 16 races. He projected 11-13 (69%-81%) and picked 13 winners (81%). (FYI, he whiffed on NM-01, NY-25, and PA-06.)

Toss-Up: 23 races. He projected 11-12 (48%-52%) and picked 11 winners (48%).

Lean GOP: 17 races. He projected 4-5 (24%-29%) and picked 4 winners (24%).

Likely GOP: 7 races. He projected 0-1 (0%-14%) and picked 1 winner (14%). (It was Carol Shea-Porter in NH-01.)

(Because of the runoff, the victory in TX-23 wasn't part of this calculus.)

Dem held seats:

Toss-Up: 2 races. He projected 1 (50%) and picked no winners (0%).

Lean Dem: 5 races. He projected 1-2 (20%-40%) and picked no winners (0%).

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by: Crisitunity @ Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 19:03:05 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I think it's a somewhat pessimistic list,

I'd move the south Florida trio to "lean".  But I think some of the open seats are more volatile than you think....

NM-01 looks like "Lean D" to me.... it's D + 2, and, of course, was super-close last time when it had Wilson as an incumbent.  The incumbency has to be worth a LOT of votes, unless the incumbent is on the way to jail or something.  In 2004, Wilson did much better than Bush (Wilson won 54-46, Bush lost 48-51).

OTOH, LA-06 looks like "lean R" - Bush got 59% in 2004; but the Repubs have no one running yet, which can't be good for them

OH-15 seems like "lean D".  Pryce and Kilroy essentially tied in 2006. The district is 7.2% Black, so Obama will have some coattails here.  

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by: plf515 @ Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 05:54:20 AM CDT

Correction: LA-06

They are in the middle of a special election.  There are two Democrats in a run-off for the special election for the nomination, and there are two Republicans in a run-off for the special election to be their nominee

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 08:37:29 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Not sold on NM-01 or OH-15 yet.

The Republicans actually made decent recruiting moves in both races.  Sheriff Darren White in NM-01 will be competitive, and State Sen. Steve Stivers, an Iraq vet, in OH-15 raised a surprisingly huge amount in his first quarter.

Without a single public poll known, I think it's a bit premature to fit these races in the Lean D category.

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by: James L. @ Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:56:14 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Also

I have no doubt that many of the races in the "Likely R" column will become "Leaners" as the campaigns become engaged, including, I hope, the South Florida trio.

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by: James L. @ Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 13:24:16 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Boeing?

Why do Republicans hate Boeing?  It is one of the few successful exporters we have had long term and under Republican pressure the DOD  gives the contract to a predominantly French, state-sponsored (owned?) company.  If a lot of Boeing workers live in Reichert's district, he's toast. French toast.

That's the largest facility I have ever seen.  It stretches on and on for what seems like a mile.

Aside from that caveat, my druthers, such as they are would add NJ-5 to the list as "Likely R."  Schulman seems to be outraising Paul Aronsohn's 2006 pace at this point and Garrett is coming off a 55% (and sinking) re-election.

Should Michelle Bachman (MN-6)be on this list for the Republicans.  She won pretty easily in what was supposed to be a contested race last cycle.

Just my opinion but I could also make the same comment about CT-5 being safe for the Democrats.

Should FL-10 be listed as "Likely R" to cover the possibility that Bill Young will retire?  I know, based on the charts, that only scandal driven Rs retired last cycle after March 17 but ...

PA-11 at this point should be off the list.  Kanjorski is loaded with cash and his opponent literally has no money.  Of course it can rapidly change.

Anybody want to move VA-11 from tossup to Lean D?

What happens if Bill Jefferson is our nominee in LA-2?  He's indicted, has no money ($250 K debt vs. 29 K cash). no fund raising possibilities.  I don't believe these are jungle primaries any more so there is at least some chance that the tainted Jefferson would go 1-on-1 with a Republican.  Likely D?

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by: David Kowalski @ Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 06:27:22 AM CDT

PA-11, CT-5, MN-6

Bachmann's opponent wasn't stellar. She's definitely only likely R, and nearing safe, but not absolutely.

Murphy should be on the list. His comfortable win was probably partly down to Nancy Johnson running the world's worst ad campaign.

As for Kanjorski, I agree absolutely. Immigration isn't going to work as a single issue and his opponent lost to him in 2002, which was a great year for the Republicans.

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by: Englishlefty @ Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 07:57:39 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

MN-6

Still in the process of an endorsement contest  The guy who looks like our nominee is Elwyn Tinklenberg, he ran last time after Wetterling said she wouldnt run, many think Tinklenberg could've won the first time.

Former MN Department of Transportation, which will certainly bode well considering the 35W bridge was essential to the north burbs the CD covers, those burbs used the bridge to commute to the cities for work.

The CD is R+6.5 and as someone whose family all lives in this CD (I got out to St. Paul), this district is pretty conservative, very very religious right.

Obama coattails could really help this race.  Obama won 66%-33%, 230,000 people came out to vote as opposed to the former caucus record, 75,000 and Obama won every part of the state of the Iron Range.  And this area is also the area where 18-30 year olds came out tremendously (i cant spell that word right now...) for Ventura and gave him the win, and there are certainly some similarities between the two.

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by: Andrew @ Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 10:50:17 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Boeing

767 production is (or now I should say 'was') at the Everett plant, which is up in WA-02. I suspect a lot of workers at the Renton plant (which is only 737s) live in WA-08, which includes part of Renton (although the plant itself is in WA-09) (there's also a large parts fabrication plant in Auburn, which is also partly in WA-08 and is Reichert's hometown).

I don't think the finger of blame, as far as angry Boeing workers go, is pointing at Dave Reichert (although perhaps it's telling that when he lost that recent contest for the vacant Appropriations seat, he lost it to Jo Bonner from Alabama, who represents Mobile, where the tanker conversion of the A330s is going to occur)... it's pointing at John McCain, who seems to have lost whatever chance he had at picking up Washington's electoral votes on the backs of independent males.

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by: Crisitunity @ Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 16:13:25 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

You have

NY-25 printed in blue, but that's Rep. Walsh's district, isn't it? But I agree that it's leaning Dem.
I dont think AK-AL is leaning Dem though. We should be more cautious, the great polls notwithstanding.
And you should add VA-05 as likely Rep, Tom Perriello is a great candidate against that awful Goode.

33, living in Germany  

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by: micha.1976 @ Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 06:34:35 AM CDT

Thanks

I fixed the NY-25 error.

And maybe you're right about AK-AL -- I perhaps am getting ahead of myself in such a red state, even though I can't see Young surviving this year.  "Tossup" is probably the safer call.

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by: James L. @ Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 13:27:44 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

First glance -

1. I would put AL-02 as Lean Republican, because we have the mayor of Montgomery running as a Democrat, and internals have him beating both Republican challengers for the open seat.  If you change the poll to include higher black turnout for Obama, he breaks the 50% mark.  

2. I would move Kagan from Lean Dem to Likely Dem because his opponent isn't raising as much as last time, he's an incumbent instead of a challenger, and he can always self fund a little if he felt finances were an issue.  

3. I would move Young over to toss-up.  He could still lose in the primary to the LT Governor.  

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 08:33:25 AM CDT

VA-05

I would make a case to put VA-05 on the chart, where Virgil Goode will be challenged by international peace-keeper Tom Perriello. Virgil Goode held the seat as a Dem, and has not had a competitive election since 1996 when he switched parties . At this point in the last campaign, Democrat Al Weed had no staff and $13000. This election, Tom Periello has 8 staff and $250,000, is campaigning INCREDIBLY hard, and many other Congressional Democrats are coming to do fundraisers with Tom.  

The party infrastructure at the county level has also been revamped, with former Democratic County chairs who were still loyal to Goode replaced with Democrats who support Democrats. This is also a district where Mark Warner, Tim Kaine, and Jim Webb ran right alongside their Republican challengers.

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by: faithfull @ Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 08:36:26 AM CDT

We Can Dream, Can't We?

Great to see it color-coded. Great work overall.

I'd like to see a column, way over on the right, labeled "Longshots" or "Under the Radar".

There we could put, for example, TX-10, where the netroots favorite lost the primary. The winner used to have his own TV show on Faux ("Texas Justice").  Larry Joe Doherty is a lawyer apparently with access to considerable funds. And he comes from the Houston end of this gerrymandered district that stretches from H-town suburbs to Austin. The Austin end tends to be more techy and liberal, while the other end, with slightly more population, has been DeLay-type nutty Repubs. So we have a candidate who is a minor celebrity, comfortable on camera, and can raise the funds. His geography and image (a gavel-wielding judge -- on TV, if not in real life) may give permission to those H-town suburbanites to vote Democratic for the first time in a long time, while consoling themselves that he's "not like those other Democrats." Actually, Doherty's stand on the issues like Iraq and health care is pretty damn progressive, so we'll see how that plays in a deep Recession during a lost War of Occupation. Anyways, if we have a shot anywhere in Texas this time around, this is it. But despite Bush's lower approval ratings even in Texas, it's still a longshot at this point. Oh yeah, Doherty is running against the son-in-law of the head of Clear Channel Communications, the radio semi-monopoly that's part of the VRWC.

Let me mention TX-04, where Glenn Melancon is again bravely challenging octogenarian Ralph Hall, one of the many Repubs tainted by association with Jack Abramoff. Looks like some of Abramoff's revelations are being slow-walked until after the election, or until never, but if something breaks on that story, this one could erupt. Until then, the numbers are grim; in '06 Melanon ran all of 4 points ahead of Kerry's share and got fully 33% of the vote.

There's others I'd like to see at least up on the board. Our man against Virgil Goode could go there, not to hurt the feelings of anyone who'd rank him higher. But putting Tom Perriello in a Longshot column would at least not ignore him. (Hey, BENAWU or somebody, why is Perriello listed 5th among possible challengers on the Race Tracker Wiki? A little housekeeping and updating here please! Thank.)

What's up in IN-03, the Fort Wayne district? A city councilman got 46% last time, after Kerry got a dismal 32%. This time we have Michael Montagano, a young lawyer and former staffer to a Dem Gov and a Dem Congressman? (His website has great photos, and an engaging  campaign-trail blog by his wife.)

How about KY-04, where the DCCC spent a zillion last time and we got creamed? This time we have Michael Kelley, a self-described "country doctor" who graduated from Harvard magna cum laude. He's young, attractive, likewise the wife and four kids, and he has some access to funds. Is this a total waste of his time, or does Kelley have a shot in a state trending Democratic, after Lucas in a comeback attempt barely held his successor, the incumbent, to 52%. (Good website, with good photos.)

Or out in Nebraska. We seemed to have a chance last time in NE-01 and Maxine Moul did six points better than Kerry in '04 while losing. (Uh oh, no website up for Max Yashirin, our candidate, a Marine Corps vet who fought in Iraq.)  In NE-02, the Omaha district, Jim Esch broke 45% and wants a re-match. First he has to take a May 13 primary over Richard Carter, an Air Force pilot who flew in Afghanistan and Iraq? (Esch has only a fragment "Full website coming soon" with a donation page.) I saw a map giving these two districts to Obama, based on someone's polling.

CQ Politics doesn't currently rate any of Nebraska's three U.S. House districts as competitive, though two of them are worth watching for signs of increased competitiveness.

Maybe that's the column head we need: "Worth Watching" for races like these where we hold our breath and pray, "Oh please, please." You know, in '06 we got a prayer or two like that answered.

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by: WoodyNYC @ Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 10:26:54 AM CDT

And another column?

Maybe on the other side, the 'far left column' ha ha, you could list the Sure Shots. Or what do you think of NM-03 and CO-02, the Udall & Udall now-vacant seats? Or Maine's First, a similar situation. Were they overlooked, put aside for later after the primaries, or what?

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by: WoodyNYC @ Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:27:21 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I don't think I'd add a 6th column...

...but next time, I'll do a list of "other races to watch" under the chart, including races like VA-05, NE-02, NJ-05, TX-10, etc.

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by: James L. @ Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 13:29:42 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

That would do it

Just don't forget IN-03. Dr Hayhurst got almost 47% in '06. This year Michael Montagano is smart, cute, with cute and smart wife, high energy, and building off what Hayhurst was able to put together last time (well, maybe not the other MD's contributions!) And this in a state, a region, that has been trending strongly Democratic and looks good for us in November.

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by: WoodyNYC @ Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 13:02:27 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

IN-03

I think Indiana 03 is exactly what you propose to label it as -- longshot/under-the-radar/could get interesting maybe.  It is very Republican, but not over-the-top conservative like Indiana 04 and 05 are.  Folks up there can at least be open-minded.  For any Democrat to win, they have to carry Fort Wayne proper, and then hope to hold down the margins in the rest of the district.  The Rep. incumbent, Mark Souder, hates to raise money, and isn't as terrible as much as he is incredibly average and uncompelling.  I think someone who runs an active, compelling campaign can MAYBE put this on the radar at the last minute.  A couple other factors could help: 1) The GOP in Allen County (Fort Wayne) are in shambles over a circus-like mayor's race last year, and 2) I think if Jill Long Thompson is our nominee for gov. (something completely unsettled at this point), it could help, as this is her neck-of-the-woods.

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by: IndianaProgressive @ Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 17:51:01 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

WV-02

I'd say Capito in WV-02 is lean R instead of likely R. The margin she won by in 2006 had more to do with Callaghan. He had closed to within 4 points before running out of money and she ran scared at the end, buying a landslide. But the DCCC and others ::cough:: think Capito is vulnerable.

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by: Carnacki @ Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 10:40:27 AM CDT

Yes, but

the Democratic nominee is someone who filled in at the last minute because the hyped nominee withdrew his nomination, and her potential is yet to be proven. This district is not inherently Democratic.  

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by: brittain33 @ Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:38:01 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

brittain33

As someone who helped hype the previous candidate, I actually think we have a better candidate now than before. Capito having to face a woman significantly improves the Democratic chances because Anne Barth can go at Capito more aggressively in challenging her than a male Democratic candidate could have done. While Unger was better known in the Eastern Panhandle, his rep was not so well known - and much of it negative - in the more populous Kanawha County. Barth, as Byrd's long time field director, is known throughout the district (and the state).

I also disagree the district is not inherently Democratic. Overall the Dems do outnumber the Reps in WV-02 (though too many are DINOS), and Dems held the district - some changes were made to it so a straight on comparison isn't apt for a long time. Harley Staggers and Bob Wise both held this district.  

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by: Carnacki @ Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 19:35:24 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

One to Watch

MN-02.  Our guy is Steve Sarvi, Iraq war vet (wow, we have two excellent Iraq war vets running in MN), former mayor of Watertown (small town, not sure but an educated guess would pen it at being quite Republican.)   He's been campaigning like a mad-man and is the type of guy who would resonate in this CD (R+3 I believe).  Also, we gained a number state house and senate seats here and as I mentioned above with Bachmann, Obama coattails.

This isn't a likely R yet but it is one to watch.  A while back, articles described MN as possibly being the next MA, a fairly populated state with a full Dem delegation to Congress.  It's of course a longshot but we really do have a full slate of excellent candidates.  

I do think MN-02 has a better chance than MN-06 though, Bachmann is a nut job but Sarvi is someone I would consider driving 40 minutes to intern/volunteer for on a regular basis.

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by: Andrew @ Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:07:35 AM CDT

WA-08

I'd keep your eye on it and perhaps move it to toss up ... none other than Bob Novak called Reichert the most endangered GOP house incumbent in America ...  

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by: raincityman @ Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 14:12:06 PM CDT

First look

James, I like your take on this list because it really gives us something to work towards as we continue onto November.  You can call me pessimistic but I prefer to be cautiously optimistic.  Besides, a couple of "Macacas" and we got ourselves a couple more leans.

While I generally agree with most of your rankings, here are a couple of my disagreements:

1) AK-AL- I think this should be a toss-up until we are sure that Don Young wins the primary.  Also, the fact that this is a a ruby red state gives the incumbent an edge even if the incumbent is Don Young.

2) CA-04- With Doolittle retiring, I think Brown has quite a steep hill to climb.  Secondly, this district has a heavy Republican lean.  Until Brown gains ground, I would downgrade that for now.

3) NC-08- Since Kissell is running again and considering how he faired without much establishment support, I would classify this one as a Toss-up.  He has name recognition and with the DCCC helping fund his race, I think all the external factors push this one to a Toss-up.

Keep up the great work!

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by: blueandwhite31 @ Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 20:15:16 PM CDT

Both NJ seats should be Lean D

We have good candidates and they don't.

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by: duffman @ Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 23:40:40 PM CDT

Well the Prez race

McCain will probably win those two districts right now, so that helps the Republican candidates there...but I think we should consider NJ-03 as leaning toward lean.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 17:28:31 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Beefs

I'd move probably two or three GOP incumbents into the Toss-Ups category. If I had to commit, I'd start with Walberg and Reichert, and maybe Kirk or Shays (although Shays seems remarkably resilient). I think it's fine to be conservative about not overusing the "Toss-Ups" category until we get closer to the general election, though.

I'd also second the call for another category of "Bubbling Under" or "Races to Watch" or something similar, for races where the numbers aren't good but we have a seemingly strong candidate who may catch fire (like Perriello in VA-05) or scandal might rear its head (Jerry Lewis, Gary Miller), or where the numbers seem pretty favorable for us (and where the DCCC is paying attention) but we're still waiting for a good candidate to appear (like NY-03 and IA-04) or where retirement still seems possible (Bill Young, or McHugh).

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by: Crisitunity @ Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 16:24:15 PM CDT

Ky 01?????????????????

I guess Ky 01 didn't even make a blip on the chart. yes we have a Dem. candidate running against Ed Whitfield "no Primary" but with out funds it's going to be hard..does the DCCC like Ed that much???
http://www.ryanforkentucky.com/

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by: kilowat @ Sat Mar 29, 2008 at 07:57:25 AM CDT