Unfortunately we all get excited when scandal hits the Reps in

places like Alaska and Idaho, we think we will get a miracle pickup in deep red! Unfortunately all the local Reps do is run a primary and bounce the unpopular Rep out and than win the general.  This happened in the AK Guv race with Murkowski getting bounced in the primary and than our Tony Knowles went down big against the replacement.  I am sure the same dynamic will play out in the AK Senate and House and the Idaho Senate.  The same thing happens to our advantage in one party Democratic house seats!

---

by: politics64 @ Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 16:12:06 PM CDT

I hear you on this one...

...but I think the situation with Dirty Don is different than it was with Frank Murkowski.  Don will likely emerge bloodied, yet victorious against Parnell and Ledoux, thus setting-up the Ds for a pickup in the Great Land.

Of the Ds in the primary, I'm putting my money on Jake Metcalfe as the man who can carry our state out of the red and into the blue this November.  Berkowitz, while slick, is a trust fund baby from Frisco; and Benson is a ex-Green running as a Democrat.  While I'll take a rich boy from SF or a hippy Green over Dirty Don any day, Jake actually has the potential to win a state-wide race.

---

by: AKGuy @ Sat Mar 22, 2008 at 01:12:09 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I am very nervous about Parnell here.

If Palin is swinging for the fences against Young -- and I would assume she is, there's no payoff in making a half-hearted effort against Young -- then she stands an extremely good chance of winning.  And Parnell vs Berkowitz would be a great race, but will break our hearts in November I'm quite sure.

The only silver lining I see is that there's no obvious similar challenge in the works for Stevens.  So maybe we beat Stevens and lose to Parnell?  I can certainly imagine that taking on both Young and Stevens would be too much for even Palin to pull off in one cycle, and that she appears to have chosen Young instead of Stevens to fight is a good thing for the national Democratic picture.

Of course, maybe she's just counting on the DOJ to edge Stevens out for her.  : (

---

by: texas dem @ Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 16:45:51 PM CDT

I'm not worried about the AK-Sen race

Even if we aren't running against Stevens, Mark Begich is still a top tier candidate.  Granted, the corruption killing Stevens helps, but we wouldn't drop the race completely.  

---

by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 19:37:33 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Easier target

Young may be the prince of pork but Stevens is the king.  The Anchorage airport is named after Stevens.  Young is also feuding with the state's major paper, the Anchirage Daily News.  The ADN is also the biggest paper in neighboring Republican stronghold the Mat-Su Valley.  Between the two of them, over half the state population lives there.

Palin is from Mat-Su (the town of Wasilla, I think). Murkowski was arrogant but he was really creamed in the Republican primary, finishing a bad third with 19%,  Palin represents the maverick wing of the GOP in Alaska.  Her mentor is Wally Hickel.  Palin, hersdelf, proved a political powerhouse in the general election.  Young is clearly an easier get than Parnell in the general.

---

by: David Kowalski @ Sat Mar 22, 2008 at 11:29:01 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

And unlike Don Young...

...Ted Stevens is actually a likable human being, an important factor in a state where everyone really does know everyone.  If anyone can take down Uncle Ted, it's Mark.

---

by: AKGuy @ Sat Mar 22, 2008 at 12:21:41 PM CDT

[ Parent ]