Steve Cohen

He's a much better match for his district (voting wise) than Harold Ford ever was.  If he gets voted out it will be racism, pure and simple.  Damn that identity politics.

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by: David Kowalski @ Thu Jan 24, 2008 at 03:36:30 AM CST

Exactly

This race makes me probably more irked than any in the country (and I live in IN-07, and with what's going on here now, that says a lot!!!).

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by: IndianaProgressive @ Thu Jan 24, 2008 at 07:13:44 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Tancredo and Hunter

Are Tom Tancredo and Duncan Hunter still retiring, now that they aren't running for president?

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by: bschak @ Thu Jan 24, 2008 at 07:54:58 AM CST

Yes.

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by: James L. @ Thu Jan 24, 2008 at 08:53:09 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Young

I think you're right on with Young.  His "I am running unless I say I am not running" was not nearly as definitive as it is being portrayed in the realm of the political junkie.  

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by: zac @ Thu Jan 24, 2008 at 09:39:37 AM CST

My favorite part of this all:

New Mexico politics from the local perspective.

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by: fbihop @ Thu Jan 24, 2008 at 12:15:22 PM CST

Update?

 I'd like to read an update on Pearce's district, NM-02. (Well, for that matter, on NM-01 and NM-03.)

In NM-02, last I knew, things were still shaking out on the two sides with no clear leaders for the nomination, much less any outlook for the fall. If 2008 turns into a 1932 style wave year, which it easily could, then NM-02 will be one of the unexpectedly winnable districts. And what is the filing deadline for these races?

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by: WoodyNYC @ Thu Jan 24, 2008 at 14:49:40 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Things are interesting in NM-02

perhaps the most interesting primaries in the state.

There are four Democratic candidates; Bill McCamley, Harry Teague, Al Kissling and Frank McKinnon.

There are seven, yes, you read that correctly SEVEN candidates for the Republican seat.  

Ed Tinsley, Bob Cornelius, Aubrey Dunn, Jr., C. Earl Greer, Monty Newman, Greg Sowards and Terry Marquardt.  Interestingly, Greg Sowards' campaign site is, I kid you not, ShortBaldHonest.com.  You can't make this stuff up.

The frontrunners for the Dems are Teague and McCamley (I'm supporting McCamley).  For the GOP... it's pretty wide open, really.  I could see Tinsley, Cornelius, Marquardt or Dunn, Jr coming away with it.

We can only hope for a bitter primary in the Republican primary.

What makes thing interesting in New Mexico is the so-called 20 percent rule.  I've wrote a series of posts at my blog on them.  I'd take a gander at The 20 Percent Problem, and I will be writing a new post on the issue tomorrow, time permitting.

New Mexico politics from the local perspective.

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by: fbihop @ Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 01:56:31 AM CST

[ Parent ]

ShortBaldHonest

Hey, not a bad slogan for someone trying to overcome the Repub brand image of dissembling and prevarication.

Thanks for this update. It should be a fun primary to watch
.

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by: WoodyNYC @ Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 16:07:13 PM CST

[ Parent ]

John Shadegg

Has anyone heard rumors that John Shadegg in Arizona-3 is considering retirement as well.  It looks like he's was just caught with some shady PAC money transfers (had to give back $10K or something like that)...and now the FEC is going to investigate.  Sounds like it would be a good time to give the private sector a whirl, if you ask me.

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by: MexTurkey @ Thu Jan 24, 2008 at 12:58:12 PM CST

shadegg

i heard the same thing.  he pledged to serve only 4 terms anyway, he has his first serious challenger ever, and he is getting hit for taking those illegal contributions.  now would be a good time to retire and then run for mccain's seat when it comes open.

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by: johns @ Thu Jan 24, 2008 at 13:15:49 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Sam Graves

cross him off the list

From the Columbia Missourian

U.S. Rep. Sam Graves has all but ruled out a bid for governor. Graves said he plans to continue his campaign for re-election to Congress this year despite suggestions that he might throw his name in the race.

I'm pretty sure that Jo Ann Emerson (R-Cape Girardeau) will not run against Peter Kinder (R-Cape Girardeau). Especially since it's a bit embarassing to give up your seat and finish third or worse in a primary.

Plus, MO-8 might be slightly in play due to some deeply Democratic areas being in the district (such areas which usually vote for the Emersons because they're smart enough at politics to impress those people)

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by: RBH @ Thu Jan 24, 2008 at 13:10:15 PM CST

More pure speculation here...

Most of this is utterly unfounded, but here's some additional names to chew on...

CA-19 Radanovich - There was some retirement speculation in 2004, but then I didnt hear a peep more about it in 2006. Who knows where his head is at?

CA-25 McKeon - There was slight speculation very early in the run-up to 2006 about McKeon also but then it seemed to go away. Wouldn't be surprised at all though if he was another out-of-the-blue anouncement.

CA-42/44 - Miller or Calvert take your pick. Both have had major corruption issues of a local nature in the last few years. Miller's legal problems are probably the more serious of the two. I only include them because of the massive local in-district bad corruption press they've garnered. I haven't heard any retirement rumors though and this one is probably wishful thinking. CA files first week of March.

CT-04 Shays - Remember he got all petulant last summer and threatened publicly to resign if he didn't get to become the ranking member on his committee? What an ass. Add to that he's facing a very tough race, while just barely surviving 06. Any Congressman who publicly threatens to resign in a high profile way like he did is highly suspect that he really wants to stay. He may well be out the door. CT Filing/Endorsement is around mid-May.

FL-08 Keller - Repeated talk about the DCCC trying to "push him towards making that retirement decision". Those kinds of unattributed quotes by the DCCC in the press usually mean that he has already privately mentioned to enough people that he's wavering and may get out. I think there might be something here? Keller has till May 8th to make up his mind.

IA-04 Latham - Harkins senate challenge? It's getting almost too late for Latham if he's planning on doing a senate run but stranger things have happened. IA files March 14.

KY-04 Rogers - Lots and lots of speculation on the KY Dem blogs at the beginning of the 06 cycle only to have old Hal finally say that yes, he was running. It really did seem like he was undecided for quite a while. Will 08 be the year that he does finally ride off after 28 years? KY files this Tuesday. It's time now old fella. Tomorrow night is usually the best time to put out the news you wish you didn't have to.

MI-09 Knollenberg - I only have that there has been written speculation, he'll be 74 yrs old, and he faces a tough challenger in Peters. As far as the speculation goes though, sometimes where there's smoke there's fire. MI files in May.

MO-09 Hulshof - He's mentioned above, but this afternoon/evening we are seeing tons of stories indicating that things are moving very quickly now regarding Hulshof. MO files on 3/25 but we'll likely know about MO-09 well before that.

NC-06 Coble and VA-10 Wolf - Coble's a 77 year old backbencher, and Wolf is extremely moribund 69 yr old backbencher in a quickly blueing Northern Virginia. I got nothin else. A retirement announcement from either of these guys would not be a major surprise and would probably elicit a yawn from almost everybody. NC files end of Feb, VA files mid April.

VA-11 Davis. He is also already listed above, but quite a lot has happened since the October story linked next to him above. Since October his wife was soundly defeated in the State Senate despite all the Davis machinery and money. Multiple long-time staff have announced they are leaving, he's closing area offices, he's in open war with the the VA Rep party, etc, etc, etc,. There have been many telltale signs in the last 3-4 weeks, and it sure as hell looks to everybody in the VA blogosphere that he's almost all but gone and headed for the lobby shops. A decision to run or not is expected from him within a short time.

WA-04 Hastings - There was some speculation early in the 06 cyle that he wasn't happy, especially after he got screwed out of his Ethics slot. I think he was a lot closer to retirement in 06 than we probably knew. However, since the departure of Hastings nemesis, Tom DeLay, that talk has definitely quieted. But you never know if it wasn't just DeLay and not other factors in addition. It wouldn't be a total surprise if the 67 yr old bailed out. Hastings has until June to announce if he's running.

A lot of this is absolutely a stretch, but hey, what's more fun than speculating about Republican retirements?

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by: mike20169 @ Thu Jan 24, 2008 at 21:14:56 PM CST

Regarding CT-04...

CQ had a comment from Shays in a recent article that said the leadership told him he wouldn't be passed over, so he's running for re-election.

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by: wmlawman @ Thu Jan 24, 2008 at 22:20:55 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Thanks for the info

I also found out Wolf will be making an announcement that he's running again too. I'm still thinking we're looking at another 3-4 Reep retirements before it's all said and done though.  

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by: mike20169 @ Thu Jan 24, 2008 at 22:47:54 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Shays

Might the fact that Jim Walsh decided to end it push Shays over the edge? The two are quite similar, and though I'm pretty sure CT filing ends in May, our lenient "Lieberman Laws" would probably allow the Republicans to replace him if he decided to quit before the Aug. 8th primary.

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by: ctwhalerman @ Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 00:43:40 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Fabulous list, Mike

Makes great fodder for thinking.  A few others who have been on my personal back burner:

Phil English, PA-3  English got 54% against a lackluster opponent in 2006 in a district wehere W got 53% in 2004.  More attention is being paid here.  English is a member of the Newt wave class of 94.  This seat is a higher priority target and he will have to work harder to keep it. He's only 51, bit thw two year wait would allow a nice. long lobbying career.

Chris Smith,NJ-4  Smith was pretty much pushed aside when he wanted to warn the Bushies about domestic intel type things.  My memory's a bit foggy but I think he was not only ignored but was moved to another committee.  Course, he was right.  He's the senior NJ GOper dating back to around 1980.  This seat might flip if he retired but I think he might want to stick it to the Bushies.  A moderate Republican who is increasingly out of style in the GOP.

Walter Jones, NC-3  Jones went off the reservation big time on Iraq and is the southern Republican who strays the most from the party line.  Sometimes rumored as a party switcher.  Will he switch, fight, or go home?

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by: David Kowalski @ Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 08:16:34 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Rogers is KY-05, not -04

Those old mossback Republicans can be hard to tell apart, I grant you.  

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by: Christopher Walker @ Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 13:19:58 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Rogers

is much easier to take than Davis, who looks like a puffer fish.  

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by: Sean @ Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 15:43:44 PM CST

[ Parent ]

A Rogers vacancy

A vacancy here would be a great thing. Outgoing AG Greg Stumbo is from this district and he would be propelled into the race by the political vacuum. Even with his notorious load of 'baggage' from past indiscretions, seems he'd be the winner of an open seat in KY-05.

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by: WoodyNYC @ Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 16:22:38 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Other Surprise Retirements

Well, the last and greatest "surprise" retirement last cycle was Mark Foley, so a few other Reps susceptible to pulling a "Foley" include:

1. David Drier (R-CA)
2. Phil English (R-PA) (if you know what he looks like, you're probably cringing right now)
3. Patrick McHenry (R-NC)

And of course, in the Senate, Miss Lindsay and Mitch McConnell...

Jim McCrery (R-LA) would be on the list too, but they're already leaving!

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by: gregindc @ Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 09:03:51 AM CST

McHenry's a ticking time bomb

Spot on Greg. The mention of McConnell made me chuckle.

We may see McHenry outed right before the election. He's got a tremendous amount of shit swirling around him that's just barely below the mainstream radar right now. He seems like the type of guy who's a self-destructive high risk taker.  

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by: mike20169 @ Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 01:25:44 AM CST

[ Parent ]

PA-05

Yes another candidate threw his hat in the ring Tuesday: 2-term Clearfield County commissioner Mark McCracken, a Democrat.

Clearfield County is the next county West of Centre County, toward Ohio. It straddles I-80.

Driving to work earlier this week I heard Matt Shaner, one of the Republicans viewed as a long shot for their nomination, on the radio.  It sounded like he is devoting quite a lot of energy to setting up campaign appearances. I must say, he has a disagreeable voice, which won't help him.  

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by: Christopher Walker @ Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 13:26:15 PM CST

FL-15

You can add Dave Weldon to the retirement list.  I don't miss him already.

"My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." -- Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

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by: walja @ Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 15:59:05 PM CST