How long will this go on?

How much longer can we expect retirements? I assume once the filling deadline has passed, the incumbent won't retire (short of a serious, major scandal).

Does this mean for the most part retirements are over, or could we see a few more trickle in? Or could we see another wave building?

---

by: C.S.Strowbridge @ Thu Jan 24, 2008 at 03:30:30 AM UTC

Oh, there will be more.

I have no doubts.

Check out this list of house retirements in the 2006 cycle, including the following 2006 announcements:

FL-09 Bilirakis R+4.3 Feb-2006
CO-05 Hefley R+15.7 2/16/2006
CA-22 Thomas R+16.0 3/6/2006
NY-24 Boehlert R+0.6 3/17/2006
TX-22 DeLay R+14.5 6/9/2006
OH-18 Ney R+6.1 8/7/2006
FL-16 Foley R+2.4 9/29/2006

Granted, the last three were "special", but I think we're gonna see a few more Sherry Boehlerts before we're done.

---

by: James L. @ Thu Jan 24, 2008 at 03:43:50 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think you are right.

Also, I think I was wrong. There could be several Republicans who wait till after the deadline passes before retiring, just so the party can choose their replacement, and not the people.  

---

by: C.S.Strowbridge @ Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 03:10:21 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

suiting

---

by: KainIIIC @ Thu Jan 24, 2008 at 03:52:06 AM UTC

Keep that link handy

That catchy tune is going into heavy rotation this year.

---

by: WoodyNYC @ Thu Jan 24, 2008 at 18:42:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

At this rate

Patrick McHenry should be in the leadership by 2013.

---

by: RBH @ Thu Jan 24, 2008 at 04:08:32 AM UTC

He's perfect for it

All the essential qualities for a leading role in Repub affairs are in his closet.

---

by: WoodyNYC @ Thu Jan 24, 2008 at 18:43:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

This is a pick up

There is no way Republicans will hold this seat.  This seat will likely be picked up by Dan Maffei and will be held by him for a long time.  

---

by: Sean @ Thu Jan 24, 2008 at 04:08:34 AM UTC

The only R's I can think of

who can run here are;

State Senator John DeFrancisco
State Senator James Alesi
State Assemblyman Robert Oaks

other than that, I don't know who else lives here.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

---

by: nrafter530 @ Thu Jan 24, 2008 at 04:51:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Lets hope one of those State Senators gets in it

That would be excellent, kill two birds with one stone. Take the congressional seat, and the open state Senate seat. Half of what we need to kick Bruno to the curb.

progressive, NY-8 (home), PA-7 (college)

---

by: pierredude @ Thu Jan 24, 2008 at 05:08:07 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I like your thinking

We need change in Albany too. If Congress wasn't looking so horrible, we'd all be shouting about the mess in the New York Lege.

---

by: WoodyNYC @ Thu Jan 24, 2008 at 18:26:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

New York Loses Two More House Seats

....in 2011.  Do you figure all of the casualties will be upstate?  Which districts do you expect will be erased?

---

by: Mark @ Thu Jan 24, 2008 at 06:17:29 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

My guess

is they eliminate one Democratic seat in the city, possibly Maloney or Ackerman and one Republican seat Upstate, possibly Reynolds or McHugh.

Unless the State Senate changes hands, then King and Fossella will see both their seats cut from under them.

Or unless there aren't any more Republican seats left.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

---

by: nrafter530 @ Thu Jan 24, 2008 at 15:32:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Vacant seat coming in Brooklyn?

Anthony Weiner (D) may be Mayor by 2012 -- he sure hopes so! (I don't.) That would leave his successor as a very junior and expendable member come redistricting time.

Staten Island's rapid population growth should make that now-Repub-held seat an island-only district. So as the Bay Ridge section gets absorbed into a neighboring district, furniture will have to be moved in Bklyn, and then probably Queens as well.

---

by: WoodyNYC @ Thu Jan 24, 2008 at 18:37:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

NY-9

is drawn to be middle-class white (Irish/Italian/Jewish) surronded by majority minority districts (6th, 10th, 12th). I don't know how they could split it up unless they give parts of it to Ackerman, parts of it to Crowley, and maybe the Brooklyn part to Nadler.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

---

by: nrafter530 @ Thu Jan 24, 2008 at 23:56:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The color trend in NYC

Usually white districts in the outer boros become less white as time goes by, so the lines will probably need to be redrawn in any case. After NY-09 sheds recently darkened neighborhoods on its edges to keep it white, there might not be enough white folks left to keep it as a majority-majority district. Then it's easy to see attaching the remaining northern areas to Ackerman's NY-05, and the areas near the ocean could attach to Nadler's NY-08.

But we don't worry, the experts can draw the lines to do what they want. What they will want to do is incumbent protection, and so eliminate the most junior members. That could be Weiner's successor elected after the Mayorial election of 2009 if Weiner wins. Or it could be McNulty's successor elected in 2008, as you suggest below.

That is if the Repub retain control of the State Senate, when the deal will be to cut one Repub seat and one Democrat. If the Democrats take the State Senate, then we can hope to see them squeeze out at least one Repub downstate and one Repub upstate and keep all the Dems.

I certainly don't see a majority-minority district being lost. The growing immigrant population alone should drive up the minority share of the state's population.

---

by: WoodyNYC @ Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 05:06:50 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

McHugh?

Would it really be possible to cut McHugh's seat? Geographically it's both enormous and isolated. It would seem difficult to make that one disappear.

---

by: armand @ Thu Jan 24, 2008 at 21:15:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

They could slice it up

and divided it among the current 20th, 25th and 24th somehow.

My guess though is that whoever takes over for McNulty will see his/her district divided up and secure Gillibrand and Arcuri.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

---

by: nrafter530 @ Thu Jan 24, 2008 at 23:53:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I say

For the upstate district, they eliminate either Kuhl or Reynolds (whichever one survives, which i'd say at least 1 is likely to) and make some more sensible district looks in this area. I also think that the NYC area is probably only going to lose a 1/2 a seat, which would probably make the Bronx/Westchester county district all Westchester.

---

by: KainIIIC @ Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 04:54:56 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

By my count, 22 official retirements/resignations

With the possible addition of VA-11 Tom Davis and many others.  

---

by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Thu Jan 24, 2008 at 04:22:49 AM UTC

This Should be as Close to a Freebie As They Come....

....particularly with Maffei back in the race.

---

by: Mark @ Thu Jan 24, 2008 at 06:16:10 AM UTC