Hodes

should win here with close to 60%.  This is a blue distrtict and I find it hard to believe that voters in a district that is likely to give the Democratic Presidential nominee 55% of the vote will cross over to vote for a right wing ideologue.

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by: Sean @ Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 02:30:49 AM UTC

I agree, but having a cahllenger wirh a radio talk show

in the most voter-rich city in the 2nd CD is, well, interesting.

That said, Hodes has raised a lot of scratch for a frosh incumbent and the district continues to push to the left.

OT, but of note: it was the second district towns along the Connecticut River Valley that by and large went for Obama in the primary, while southern NH bordering Boston-area MA went for Clinton by and large.  Nashua's down there too, but much of the 2nd CD isn't.  

birch paper - mostly NH, mostly politics.

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by: Dean Barker @ Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 02:35:58 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Primary

Obama won the second district by 400 votes; Clinton won the first district by a bit less than 8,000 votes.  Plder, more blue collar towns went for Clinton.  It's a telling thing that Obama carried the elitist Dartmouth (Hanover) vote by 1500 but won UNH (Durham) by only 500.  UNH has twice the enrollment of Dartmouth.

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by: David Kowalski @ Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 11:57:46 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

There were a few different dynamics going on, imho.

Regarding CD1 and 2 Obama/Clinton votes: 1 has voter-rich Manchester and many of the more populous towns in the southern tier, while Nashua is the only really big city in CD2, yet it is strangely also located in the southern tier below Manchester, so can follow CD1 voting patterns (see the second starred point below for what I mean by that).

Regarding the college towns:

* Edwards' economic populism message underperformed in low and middle- income towns/cities such as Claremont. Clinton picked up those voters by and large.  Why Obama didn't connect with those voters is a good question.

* UNH is closer to the southern NH Boston-area, and thus is closer in line with the Gore'00/Kerry'04/Clinton'06 CD1 brand of Democrat vs. the Connecticut River Valley bordering Vermont Bradley'00/Dean'04/Obama'06 CD2 brand of Democrat (speaking in great generalizations, of course).  (And student populations within those regions notwithstanding)

* Dartmouth was in session on 1/8, UNH was not. I'm not making excuses for Team Obama (Clinton won fair and square), but young first time primary voters perform better without the added hurdle of absentee ballots.  

birch paper - mostly NH, mostly politics.

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by: Dean Barker @ Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 18:26:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

OK, getting really OT here on my own diary,

but writing after hitting "post" I saw this from Dante Scala on Obama/Clinton/Edwards "elite" score.  Very interesting stuff about working class votes in NH v. "Volvo" Democrats in the Granite state.

birch paper - mostly NH, mostly politics.

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by: Dean Barker @ Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 18:31:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Great article

Scala adjusts the areas over time.  I went to grad school in Boston in the late 70s and it was obvious that NH had changed demographically from that time.  The proportion of Democratic voters is higher and a smaller percentage of them come from towns like Manchester, Nashua, and Hooksett.

A lot of votes seemed to come from unfamiliar towns (generally trending towards Obama but not overwhelmingly).  This was pretty obviously the spillover from suburban Boston with lower taxes and a bit lower housing prices (the prices had been lower in MA circa 1980).

Clinton's mix is probably better for closed primaries than for open ones.  What stuck in my head is that Jesse Jackson in 1988 won 93% of the black vote and 29% of the white vote.  That might be a winner this year but it might not.  If Obama gets 70% of the black vote his score may move even closer towards a 1.00 ratio.

The changing demographics of NH have contributed strongly towards the state's move towards "blue."  Hodes looks to be in better shape financially but maybe Carol Shea-Porter would be in better shape demographically for the fall.  

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by: David Kowalski @ Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 01:26:13 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

All very interesting stuff.

But you have wandered onto a hobby-horse among the readers at Blue Hampshire, so I feel obligated by them to mention it - that the new NH residents from the Boston-area, contrary to conventional wisdom, are actually the only source of new population in the state that's contributing to GOP numbers, as  Republicans flee MA for lower taxes and more libertarian laws.

The state is definitely trending blue fast, but it's doing so from new growth of residents in other areas who are coming to the state from around the country (northeast in general), are college educated, and want the quality-of-life and hi-tech industry jobs we have.  Added to that is the increasing disaffection of the native "Yankee Republican" Granite Staters, fiscal conservatives, social libertarians, and skeptics on being the world's police, who rightfully no longer recognize their own party.

So Shea-Porter is actually the one I worry more about, though I'm worrying much less now that I've seen in what great numbers Dems came out on primary day vs. Repubs.

birch paper - mostly NH, mostly politics.

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by: Dean Barker @ Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 03:35:07 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

A right wing talk show host?

Oh, this should be rich. Can we do some oppo? Anyone ever heard of a wingnut radio host who didn't say something false or scandalous at least once a week? I'll bet there will be volumes of material.

Delaware Liberal - biggest and best blog in Delaware.

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by: X Stryker @ Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 16:02:15 PM UTC

My thoughts exactly. (eom)

birch paper - mostly NH, mostly politics.

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by: Dean Barker @ Sun Jan 20, 2008 at 02:44:57 AM UTC

[ Parent ]