|In previous diaries, I looked at TX, OH, IL, MD, MS, WV, KY, PA, NC, NM, IN, NC, NE and CA; today, AR where the deadline is 3/10, OR where it is 3/11, IA where it is 3/14, ME where it is 3/15, and UT
The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here - basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics (details here . I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well....I give you the Cook number too.
AR has 4 districts, 3 held by Democrats, 1 by a Republican
OR has 5 districts, 4 held by Democrats, 1 by a Republican
IA has 5 districts, 3 held by Democrats, 2 by Republicans
ME has 2 districts, both held by Democrats
UT has 3 districts, 1 held by Democrats, 2 by Republicans
The districts held by Democrats are
district Cook Prob Repub Incumbent Challenger? rating
AR-01 D+1 .60 Berry No Safe
AR-02 R+0 .50 Snyder No Safe
AR-04 D+0 .54 Ross No Safe
IA-01 D+5 .66 Braley No Safe
IA-02 D+7 .67 Loebsack Yes Vul
IA-03 D+1 .64 Boswell No Somewhat vul
ME-01 D+6 .80 Allen (retiring for senate) Somewhat vul
ME-02 D+4 .82 Michaud No Safe
OR-01 D+6 .49 Wu No Safe
OR-03 D+18 .31 Blumenauer No Safe
OR-04 D+0 .55 DeFazio No Safe
OR-05 D+1 .57 Hooley No Slight vul
UT-02 R+17 .55 Matheson Probably Safe
As for those held by Republicans:
AR-03 R+11 .64
AR-03 is the NW corner of AR, bordering OK and MO
Boozman, first elected in 2001, has won easily, even against opponents with competitive funding
He's got a different kind of challenger in 2008, though... David Pritt is on active duty in Iraq.
IA-04 D+0 .77
IA-04 is the central part of IA
Latham, first elected in 1994, has had a couple close wins: in 2002 he got 55%, in 2006 he got 57% against Selden Spencer, spending $1.1 million to $500,000
In 2008, his opponent is William Meyers
IA-05 R+5 .44
IA-05 is the Western part of IA, bordering NE, SD, and MN.
King, first elected in 2002, has won fairly easily against opponents with modest funding. It's not clear if he's running again. He might run for Senate against Harkin.
Rob Hubler is the only announced candidate; he's also got a blog
OR-02 R+11 .60
OR-02 is the eastern 2/3 of OR, bordering WA, ID, NV, and CA.
Walden, first elected in 1998, has not been seriously challenged. There is a rumor he may retire now to run full time for Governor in 2010.
There are no confirmed challengers
UT-01 R+22 .54
UT-01 is the NW part of UT, including the Great Salt Lake
Bishop, first elected in 2002, has won easily without spending much, against underfunded opponents.
There is no confirmed challenger
UT-03 R+26 .53
UT-03 is more or less the middle of the state.
Cannon, first elected in 1996, has won easily
There is no confirmed Democratic challenger