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Congressional races by state: AR, OR, IA, ME, UT

by: plf515

Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 7:30 AM EST

I am all for running everywhere, and the 50 state strategy.

But neither we nor the Republicans are running everywhere (at least not yet!) In this series, I will look at where we are not running (I am not going to look at where Republicans are not running, as I have no desire to help Republicans, however modestly)

This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU.

crossposted to dailyKos

plf515 :: Congressional races by state: AR, OR, IA, ME, UT

In previous diaries, I looked at TX, OH, IL, MD, MS, WV, KY, PA, NC, NM, IN, NC, NE and CA; today, AR where the deadline is 3/10, OR where it is 3/11, IA where it is 3/14, ME where it is 3/15, and UT

The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here - basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics (details here . I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well....I give you the Cook number too.

AR has 4 districts, 3 held by Democrats, 1 by a Republican
OR has 5 districts, 4 held by Democrats, 1 by a Republican
IA has 5 districts, 3 held by Democrats, 2 by Republicans
ME has 2 districts, both held by Democrats
UT has 3 districts, 1 held by Democrats, 2 by Republicans

The districts held by Democrats are
Confirmed district Cook Prob Repub Incumbent Challenger? rating AR-01 D+1 .60 Berry No Safe AR-02 R+0 .50 Snyder No Safe AR-04 D+0 .54 Ross No Safe IA-01 D+5 .66 Braley No Safe IA-02 D+7 .67 Loebsack Yes Vul IA-03 D+1 .64 Boswell No Somewhat vul ME-01 D+6 .80 Allen (retiring for senate) Somewhat vul ME-02 D+4 .82 Michaud No Safe OR-01 D+6 .49 Wu No Safe OR-03 D+18 .31 Blumenauer No Safe OR-04 D+0 .55 DeFazio No Safe OR-05 D+1 .57 Hooley No Slight vul UT-02 R+17 .55 Matheson Probably Safe

As for those held by Republicans:
AR-03 R+11 .64
AR-03 is the NW corner of AR, bordering OK and MO
Boozman, first elected in 2001, has won easily, even against opponents with competitive funding
He's got a different kind of challenger in 2008, though... David Pritt is on active duty in Iraq.

IA-04 D+0 .77
IA-04 is the central part of IA
Latham, first elected in 1994, has had a couple close wins: in 2002 he got 55%, in 2006 he got 57% against Selden Spencer, spending $1.1 million to $500,000
In 2008, his opponent is William Meyers

IA-05 R+5 .44
IA-05 is the Western part of IA, bordering NE, SD, and MN.
King, first elected in 2002, has won fairly easily against opponents with modest funding. It's not clear if he's running again. He might run for Senate against Harkin.
Rob Hubler is the only announced candidate; he's also got a blog

OR-02 R+11 .60
OR-02 is the eastern 2/3 of OR, bordering WA, ID, NV, and CA.
Walden, first elected in 1998, has not been seriously challenged. There is a rumor he may retire now to run full time for Governor in 2010.
There are no confirmed challengers

UT-01 R+22 .54
UT-01 is the NW part of UT, including the Great Salt Lake
Bishop, first elected in 2002, has won easily without spending much, against underfunded opponents.
There is no confirmed challenger

UT-03 R+26 .53
UT-03 is more or less the middle of the state.
Cannon, first elected in 1996, has won easily
There is no confirmed Democratic challenger

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Congressional races by state: AR, OR, IA, ME, UT | 5 comments

Congressional Races by State

AL-01

Since you are examining chances and probabilities, we in the
"Heart of Dixie" would love to see an assessment of chances here in our Congressional races. A lot of energy is being expended in an attempt to break the "Red State" image automatically given to Alabama and the rest of the South by National pollsters and (more importantly)funders.

by: normboyd40 @ Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 18:19:04 PM UTC

by: you @ soon

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Alabama revival

One of the encouraging signs on a national level was that candidates were found well ahead of the deadline in 3 of the 5 Republican seats in Alabama. Last cycle, the Alabama slots filled very late. FWIW, I probably saw more improvement in Alabama (in terms of filling candidate slots) than in any state in the Union.

Things are also looking up in many other southern states. Virginia, North Carolina, and Arkansas come to mind.

by: David Kowalski @ Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 19:38:30 PM UTC

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My current model is not adequate, I don't think

as it is based only on demographics.

For what it's worth, that model predicts AL-01 has having a .40 chance of being Republican - that is, a .60 chance of being Democratic. Most of the reason for it being so likely to be Democratic is due to a) The high percentage of Blacks (28%) and the relatively low median income ($34,700, at about the 25%tile).

I'm going to work on a model that includes 'Region' but that wouldn't really answer your question.

Probably the best statistical answer would be to look at trends over time.... I've got some of that data at home, but I haven't entered it into my computer.

by: plf515 @ Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 19:51:25 PM UTC

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by: you @ soon

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Maybe

your model should de-emphasize race somewhat. Race seems to create a lot of distortion in districts that are, say, 95% or more white but have a liberal tradition (like the Maine districts and IA-04, in this current diary). Religiosity may be a better proxy, but that's a big problem because a) the census bureau doesn't survey for that, and b) it would need to be accounted for in conjunction with race, as, for instance, a black evangelical is likely to be Democratic and a white evangelical is likely to be GOP.

You're probably right that past recent election results would be the best indicator. But downticket races should probably get thrown into the mix too... on the one hand, there are a number of rural districts that have swung dark red at the Presidential level but have a long history of voting Blue Dog Democrats downticket (OH-18 and IN-08 spring to mind), and on the other hand, there are a lot of affluent suburban districts that have trended Democratic at the Presidential level but persist in electing moderate Republicans downticket.

You might take a look at some of Superribbie's diaries at Daily Kos from the 2006 election cycle. I think he tried to create a quantitative formula for ranking House races. But I don't think it focused on demographics at all and used a lot of subjective thumb-on-the-scale mechanisms (like bonuses for incumbency, scandals, etc.).

by: Crisitunity @ Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 21:40:59 PM UTC

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Congressional Races (AL)

Thank you all for your helpful comments. I also feel I am seeing a pretty significant swing to Blue. The key, or one of the keys, is for the national party to help with some funding down here. And exposure on this well-viewed national blog is a big boost.

by: normboyd40 @ Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 23:15:46 PM UTC

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Congressional races by state: AR, OR, IA, ME, UT | 5 comments