Site bio here...

http://www.lindachap...

She represents the Aurora area--prime Wayne's World territory!

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by: James L. @ Sun Dec 03, 2006 at 23:50:42 PM CST

Excellent! Party Time!

Wayne's World!

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by: DavidNYC @ Mon Dec 04, 2006 at 08:10:15 AM CST

[ Parent ]

good, the key

to victory is winning Aurora, which is the most liberal portion of this distict. I had hoped Laesch would run again, he did do better than any of Hastert's previous unfunded Democratic challengers, but was a few points underwhelming for me at least.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Mon Dec 04, 2006 at 15:47:21 PM CST

[ Parent ]

No offense to John...

...but with the Foley scandal and the certainty that Hastert was unlikely to remain Speaker, 2004 was the best environment for any Democratic challenger in IL-14 for years, yet we didn't see the kind of organizational and financial strength that a similarly situated longshot challenger, Richard Morrison, showed against his fight against Tom DeLay in 2004.

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by: James L. @ Mon Dec 04, 2006 at 15:53:01 PM CST

[ Parent ]

you mean 2006

yeah, he missed tghe ball a little, and he really is a great guy, very knowledgable. But I said he had to make at least a 44% showing to get ticked down as strong possible candidate in 08. 40% wasn't bad, especially seeing as how the last guy got 30%, but Laesch raised about 10-12 times as much money as that guy did. I think a lack of a stronger and better oiled campaign organization along with very, very, very poor fundraising, comparatively at least, killed him. He didn't even have money to run a commercial districtwide, nobody knew his namee, and he didn't really recreate the district democratic party.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Mon Dec 04, 2006 at 16:00:24 PM CST

[ Parent ]

But in that 40%

He won Aurora and Whiteside county. Whiteside is incredibly rural. He also lost a battle with the courts when they ruled to keep ALL the polls open late in Kane County when only 16 of them opened late.

For a candidate to get 40% of the vote in those circumstances and with little to no name recognition speaks volumes both about the discontent with the republican party and about John's ground game.

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by: flautist @ Mon Dec 04, 2006 at 17:16:10 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Don't forget Tom Cross

I think it is important to keep an eye on State Rep. Tom Cross (R-Oswego) as well.  A long conversation with my neighbor and GOP Committeeman (he stores Hastert's parade elephant in his barn) indicated that Cross was the guy.

Secondly, Steve Rauchenburger inquired into his old office in Elgin, IL.

Both Rauschenberger and Cross have districtwide/statewide name recognition and fundraising lists.

Lauzen is a tough grassroots campaigner and the GOP fight will leave a nice little rift after the battle.  In a Special Election, I would hope that Lauzen is not the victor.  He has the ability to rally the silent majority.  Winning a Special Election is about GOTV.

The reason that Hastert Republicans back Schmitz/Cross comes back to Denny's Highway.  Lauzen is opposed to the Hastert Highway, a dream project for Fox Valley developers for the last 10-12 years.

A final note on Schmitz or Lauzen comes from my last "Chairman's note:"

(We know that Tim Schmitz is the past "Denny pick," but I believe that he dropped out after conducting a name recognition poll).  The poll was conducted by Rod McCulloch and was reported on by the Beacon News political writer, Matt DeFour.

Here's another clue, for what it's worth. GOP pollster Rod McCulloch conducted a poll of 400 Republican voters in the 14th congressional district in late October and asked who they would like to see succeed Hastert if he retires.
He mentioned in an e-mail that went out the weekend before the election that one of the potential candidates listed in the poll also sponsored the poll, but he wouldn't say who and he wouldn't say which Republicans were listed. He also wouldn't release the results of the poll.
The potential candidates I mentioned previously deny sponsoring the poll, but someone out there knows the results.
McCulloch did drop one intriguing clue to a riddle that I'm sure every potential candidate is salivating to solve.
Based on the results, the person who sponsored the poll is no longer interested in running.

John Laesch

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by: John Laesch @ Mon Dec 04, 2006 at 10:45:34 AM CST

Will you be running again???

In the event that Hastert retires early. Or perhaps in 2008???

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by: potus2020 @ Mon Dec 04, 2006 at 12:50:38 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Tom Cross isn't running

Hastert is actively supporting Schmitz. I watched his people lobbying locals last night on Schmitz's behalf. 

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by: capitolfax @ Fri Dec 08, 2006 at 09:28:39 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Wiki Racetracker needs an edit

to show its "Chapa-LaVia" other than that, she's in the State House not Senate, as the hyperlink is showing. I've never had success in creating a hyperlink, otherwise I'd do it. Her State House webpage is here:
http://www.housedem....

A map of her State House District is here: http://www.housedem....
 

Progressive Blue, a Blog for Progressive Populists

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by: Predictor @ Mon Dec 04, 2006 at 10:58:55 AM CST

Aurora Mayor Tom Weisner

has been salivating for this opportunity as well, I think. We would be treated to an awfully interesting fight between him and Chapa LaVia on the Dem side were Denny to step down.

It would be interesting to see who Mike Madigan would support. He seems to have a love/hate thing going with Chapa but if he is feeling some love toward her, he will help her to find money and resources.

Personally, I'd like to see Laesch go for it again, he's a great candidate and right on the issues. Weisner is something of a political whore who triangulates to an amazing degree, and Chapa, while very popular in her District, would probably get crushed in the more rural areas of IL-14. But Laesch'll have to play ball with the money people & the DCCC if he is to have a shot.

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by: MissSharon @ Mon Dec 04, 2006 at 14:21:47 PM CST

Chapa LaVia sponsored this awful bill.

http://www.ilga.gov/...

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by: Odysseus @ Mon Dec 04, 2006 at 14:42:49 PM CST

Based the info you provided, is it safe to say

that Chapa-LaVia is socially conservative? Not a Civil-Libertarian?

Progressive Blue, a Blog for Progressive Populists

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by: Predictor @ Mon Dec 04, 2006 at 16:34:18 PM CST

[ Parent ]

extremely pro-stem cell research though

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Mon Dec 04, 2006 at 16:49:33 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I won't support her

now. That's not just social conservatism, that's stupidity and far right pandering. Attacking violent video games bascially. i may be pro-life, but I'm all for civil libirties, I just believe an embryo to be a partial life and that the best way to trim back the number of abortions had, significantly, is to make them illegal. I don't want anyone put in jail like many right wing nuts. I think nothing should punish the woman for having it. The doctor should get a warning. Then a fine, then a larger fine, and finally have his medical licensed revoked. And after that, if he does again, then he's practicing law illegally, and that would an offense punishable by jail time, not the act of giving the abortion.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Mon Dec 04, 2006 at 16:49:12 PM CST

[ Parent ]

More info

SoapBlox/Chicago began having this discussion two days after election day. Among Democrats in the district there seems to be two camps (Chapa LaVia and Laesch). The Republican to watch out for (as mentioned upthread) is Tom Cross. He is a dark horse in this, but may decide to try to stay in the state legislature to continue his attempt to pull the Illinois GOP away from the nutjobs currently controlling it.

More coverage on IL-14 here.

SoapBlox/Chicago - Be heard!

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by: ltsply2 @ Mon Dec 04, 2006 at 15:16:12 PM CST

A split in republicans

not all Republicans like Hastert. Many local republicans where strongly opposed to Praire Parkway, but Hastert used his power to shove it down their throats, amking many local Republicans very angry. The Republican Primary won't be a race between moderate and conservative so much as it is a race between National Republican/Hastert Lackey, and local Republican/good ole boy. A lot of Republicans are going to wnat this district, we'll probably see about 9 serious candidates, becuase many people have been waiting and slowly preparing for Hastert's retirment fro over a decade, (by the way Hastert was going to retire in 2006, but got held off by just one term). This is going to be a very expensive, nasty, and draining Republican primary. With a good, new democratic organization and GOTV effort in this district, either Laesch, (if he finally raises money), opr LaVia could win, especially seeing as how all of North Illinois is trending Democratic, especially this district.

IL-14 is getting more Democratic allong it's suburban edges, but the rural areas were the spots most infuriated by the Praire Parkway, and if a highly conservative Hatstert Lackey gets nominated, they could finally vocie their frustrations adn put a Democrat in office. That Democrat would have a tough reelection the next election, but if che/she ould gain ground in the suburbs as an incumbent, then he/she could win reelection.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Mon Dec 04, 2006 at 15:54:25 PM CST

Re: Lauzen / Hastert / Lavia / Laesch etc...

I like John - but he didn't hit it out of the park.  He din't hit a triple or a double.  He made it on base.  It's not all Johns fault though.  The 14th is not only the most conservative region of Illinois it is ALSO the largest and most aggressive Democrat hating region of Illinois. 

Dennis Hastert protected a pedophile and the conservatives reelected him only because they would NEVER - I mean NEVER EVER vote for a Democrat or a progressive.  If there was an independant running - maybe he/she would have had a better chance in the 14th.  Joe Serra and Rubin Zamora would also had trouble in the 14th.  Too bad Serra dropped out of the race prematurely he may have done a lot better than anyone.

RE: Lauzen - He'll run and he'll win.  No Dem will beat him.
No Dem will beat ANY Repub running in the 14th.

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by: jdboos @ Tue Dec 05, 2006 at 17:22:47 PM CST

this district is winnable

No Dem?  I disagree.  That's not the isue.

Lauzen has support here locally, but will face an uphill battle as Hastert hates him with a white-hot passion.  And he is too eccentric for many people; Shakespearean expositions on the floor of the GA?  There's a lot to mock out there.  And he's the only member of the GA to vote against a woman's right to breastfeed in public; for that alone he deserves to lose. 

The problem with this race will be that BOTH the Dem and the Repub base are split.  Whichever party can unify will probably win; that's anybody's guess at this point.

But as to why locals voted for Hastert, it was three things, none of them having to do with people "never" voting for a Democrat.  Obama and Kerry won in many areas; this district has a large swing population if you look at the numbers.

First, Hastert is well-liked locally as a "nice guy" with prestige by people who don't follow politics much and he cultivated his image very, very carefully.  Other candidates won't have that to the extent Hastert did. 

Second, he brings home money - witness the newspapers echoing cries of "what shall we do now that our 'sugar daddy' is leaving us?"  This bodes well for a Democrat, who will be better able to bring home the bacon in a Dem controlled Congress. 

And third, Laesch's campaign suffered a funding deficit.  For any Dem, it would be virtually impossible for them to win out here without DCCC help, and the DCCC has simply not targeted this race for a long, long time.  Either the DCCC has to step up to the plate and endorse/support a populist, local candidate who doesn't have a million of his/her own to start with, or local progressives have to find someone wealthy enough (like a Lamont) to front a significant portion of their own seed money, so the DCCC will "feel like" supporting them.

As a progressive, I don't like the idea that only a rich candidate can break through the "entry fee" barrier set by Emanuel, and am hoping our local structural successes throughout the district have laid the foundation for DCCC "interest" in this district.  Really, for them I think the actual candidate has less to do with it - why throw millions at a race if the ground team (not the candidate's, but the township/county's) isn't strong enough to sustain it?  I think in that regard the district's Dems have turned a corner organizationally.

That's actually one of the things I liked best about Laesch - he saw his run as a means of solidifying a district-wide grassroots base for whoever runs when the seat opens up.  He helped others in local races, helped organize precinct trainings, and helped to organize a DFA training weekend in Kane Co.  From my perspective, these things are much more important than running a "dazzling" candidate.  Laesch did a lot of things right in his campaign, though he lacked professional campaign leadership.  He also got some strong ground support. 

But whoever runs, they will need to be seen as an insider (NOT someone foisted on the district by the DCCC or the Chicago machine, which is anathema to rural/suburban Chicago voters), and they will need to be enough of a "uniter" to reach out to the hundreds of progressives who supported someone else, in order to solidify that afore-mentioned grassroots base.  I think the Republicans in district will be motivated to do that, given their recent losses.

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by: CarolynS @ Wed Dec 06, 2006 at 13:07:34 PM CST

[ Parent ]

you're alittle extreme

Hastert barely won in 1984, and Bush only got 54% of the vote here. It's trending Democratic, like all of North Louisiana. It's not nearly as Republican as some of the Southern Illinois districts, and a strong Democrat who does well in the rural areas could easily win this, though we would have to nominate a moderate Democrat. IL-14 is nowhere near the most conservative area of Illinois. I think it;s amazig the party does as a well as it does here, it has no party organization just about, while Republicans are extremely strong and well organized. The State Democratic Party needs to dump about 400,000 into creating a strong district wide party apparatus.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Fri Dec 08, 2006 at 11:02:26 AM CST

[ Parent ]

You mean North Illinois.

:)

And yeah, the comment that IL-14 is the "most Republican" area of Illinois is either grossly misinformed or deliberately misleading.  The most Republican district in Illinois is IL-19 (Shimkus), which has a PVI of R+8.1, followed by IL-15 (Johnson) at R+6.2, IL-18 (LaHood) at R+5.5, IL-08 (MELISSA BEAN-DEMOCRAT) at R+5.2, and then IL-14 at R+4.8

If we can win in IL-08, then IL-14 is not undoable with a top notch candidate.

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by: James L. @ Sat Dec 09, 2006 at 13:23:06 PM CST

[ Parent ]

You're right... I agree... sort of

I'm not convinced that a Dem can win here. 

You mentioned the funding deficit.  ALL of the (for lack of a better term) "new" Dems faced a huge funding deficit.  The Democratic party of Illinois as well as the Kane, Kendall, Will, etc... Counties stiffed the candidates.  Some candidates were recruited some ran on their own initiative and all were lied to by the Democratic party.  They were all promised a lot of money to help with their ground breaking campaigns but not a single dime was given. 

I have a jaded opinion now of the Democratic party in Illinois.

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by: jdboos @ Wed Dec 06, 2006 at 14:12:46 PM CST