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OH-05: NRCC Scrambles to Respond

by: James L.

Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 5:51 PM EST


Hot on the heels of the DCCC's $150K media buy against Republican Bob Latta, the NRCC just poured in a good deal of cash into the OH-05 special election today.  Check out the latest filing:

NATIONAL REPUBLICAN CONGRESSIONAL COMMITTEE

  1. Opposes Candidate: ROBIN WEIRAUCH FOR CONGRESS
       Office Sought: House of Representatives, Ohio District 05
       Payee: MAJORITY STRATEGIES
       Date Expended = 12/03/2007      Amount Expended = $18178.81
       Purpose: Mailing Service

  2. Opposes Candidate: ROBIN WEIRAUCH FOR CONGRESS
       Office Sought: House of Representatives, Ohio District 05
       Payee: MAJORITY STRATEGIES
       Date Expended = 12/03/2007      Amount Expended = $14695.72
       Purpose: Mailing Service

  3. Opposes Candidate: ROBIN WEIRAUCH FOR CONGRESS
       Office Sought: House of Representatives, Ohio District 05
       Payee: STEVENS REED CURCIO & POTHOLM
       Date Expended = 12/03/2007      Amount Expended = $2313.00
       Purpose: Media Production

  4. Opposes Candidate: ROBIN WEIRAUCH FOR CONGRESS
       Office Sought: House of Representatives, Ohio District 05
       Payee: STEVENS REED CURCIO & POTHOLM
       Date Expended = 12/03/2007      Amount Expended = $10086.00
       Purpose: Media Production

  5. Opposes Candidate: ROBIN WEIRAUCH FOR CONGRESS
       Office Sought: House of Representatives, Ohio District 05
       Payee: STEVENS REED CURCIO & POTHOLM
       Date Expended = 12/03/2007      Amount Expended = $234505.00
       Purpose: Issue Ad Placement

To do the math for you, that's $280,000 to defend a rock solid Republican seat that Bush carried by 22 points in 2004.  As we've said before, this is money the GOP can't afford to spend -- their latest fundraising report showed the committee to still be carrying a net debt of $1 million (compared to a net surplus of $27 million for the DCCC).

The GOP is seriously sweating this district?  Inconceivable!

UPDATE: Here's the ad that the DCCC put up on the air beginning yesterday:

Tying Republicans to Noe and Taft (two of the most hated recent figures in Ohio politics) has been an effective line of attack for Democrats in Ohio as of late.  I haven't gotten any word yet on the contents of the NRCC's advertising.

James L. :: OH-05: NRCC Scrambles to Respond
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We have to take a look at this
This isn't a response.  A response would be a financial match, or respond with 50K and laugh at them thinking they can pickup the district.  

This is Republicans fretting over what should be a safe seat.  Clearly, we are in the blue, and everybody knows something we don't.  (Basically that this race is much more competitive than on paper - but we don't know how much more competitive)


Seriously sweating the special
In Ohio-5, we ask, "Why rock?"
Answer, to put Latta in drydock
Making GOP cash pour out like sweat
And starting '08 so deep in debt

Peace


Already a semi-victory
They are spending 10% of their resources, twice as much money as us, in an R+10 district. If we win they will be so utterly demoralized. And from everything I'm hearing and reading Weirauch is a real true blue Democrat. It is good to be a Democrat these days.

progressive, NY-8 (home), PA-7 (college)

Maryland
any news on who filled for congress in Maryland...today was the filling deadline

Both parties filed a full slate
but there aren't any serious challengers to the incumbents outside the primaries for Gilchrest and Wynn.

[ Parent ]
Steny Hoyer
Has a nominal challenger on the Dem side, too.  Maybe he'll decide to STFU for a few months.  Please.

[ Parent ]
any word on virginia?
would a flux of money cause a similar reaction in VA?  we should try, either they won't be able to spend it, and we might get a win, or they have to spend more money.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

Not sure
The NRCC paid $10K to poll it, but I would be surprised if either side made a move here -- the compressed campaign period makes it hard for Forgit to get much traction.

[ Parent ]
The Dems should...
The Dems should spend another $150k here just to see what the Republicans will do. If they don't have another round of spending, they we pretty much know they can't.

They should also spend a $100k in Virginia.  


I hope
That we win this but I still don't think we can.

Even better would be the DSCC pouring like a million dollars into IL-14 and winning it for John Laesch. That would send the message that the Democrats are going to win next year and the Republicans can't match that kind of buy.


So you want - er
The Senate Dems to step into a contested House primary? I'm confused.

[ Parent ]
I think
He is assuming Laesch wins it.  DCCC will stay out until after Feb. 5th.  Although IL-14, I expect Footlik to win since he is self-funding and Laesch isn't raising anywhere near enough to make it through a contested primary.  

[ Parent ]
Alright, lemme get it straight...
the DSCC is gonna spend money to help Laesch beat Footlik in the IL-14 primary?

Gosh, politics is confusing.

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08


[ Parent ]
No
No they aren't.  The poster assumed Laesch would win the primary, which I doubt will happen.  And the DCCC will stay out until Foster wins the primary.  

[ Parent ]
The point isn't who wins the primary
The point of the above comments is that DSCC = Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and DCCC = Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

IL-14 is a House race, not a Senate race.  It doesn't matter if the winner of the primary is Laesch, Foster, or my kitchen sink, DSCC won't be involved.


[ Parent ]
...
I'm guessing he meant DCCC so I said DCCC to as a qausi-correction.  And no... The issue was whether the committee would get involved in the primary.  

[ Parent ]
...
DavidNYC and texas dem were commenting lightheartedly on the mixup between DSCC and DCCC. That's all.

[ Parent ]
Thank you Lucas
and actually, I was commenting on the DSCC/DCCC mixup as well as the Footlik error; Footlik is running against Dan Seals and Mark Kirk in IL-10, not against Laesch and Foster in IL-14.

The combination of both of those mistakes was worth a silly comment, I thought.  I'm glad it was clear to you what I meant.

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08


[ Parent ]
Nope
Footlik is IL-10, Foster is IL-14.

[ Parent ]
Simple mistake, people knew what I meant, Obviously NT


[ Parent ]
That's great
If anything, at the minimum we'll make the financial difference between Republicans and Democrats even greater. Then if we can come close or even win it, we would have a strong media narrative and momentum going into 2008. We'll also be gaining needed voter contacts and attention in the district, which could valuable in the 2008 presidential elections.

In so many ways, this is a big plus for Democrats.



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