Suprised to say the least

I figured the establishment would sit back and shoot for Hastert's seat only before 2008.  Clearly, we've got two seats in our sights before 2008.  

Unfortunately, Meehan wasn't contested in 2006, so we can't compare numbers as much as I would like, but here's a small breakdown to reflect on the dynamics of competitive special elections.  

2006 OH-05
Incumbent Jim Gilmor- 129,813 (57%)
Robin Weirauch ------ 98,544  (43%)

Competitive Special Election MA-05
Nikki Tsongas --- 54,363 (51%)
Jim Ogonowski --- 47,770 (45%)

If the GOTV programs can get 55,000+ votes out, I would expect us to outdo Latta.  Who knows if that's possible?  Our best odds are here and now.  

---

by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Sun Dec 02, 2007 at 14:48:48 PM CST

Check it

I'm brown like Sherrod and I'm young like Don
And I got more bling than Moseley Braun
In Senator Shaheen I will take pride
And in the Udall Boyz from the West Side
I'm supporting Warner, M., not Warner, J.
And we'll increase our posse on election day
November '08 is the time to shine
For stone-cold inauguration in 2009
So put your checks in the mail and don't be cheap
And wave your hands in the air 'cause you care so deep

Peace

---

by: Sucka MP @ Sun Dec 02, 2007 at 15:16:41 PM CST

Better ...

... and better than Rapper Karl Rove, for sure.

---

by: WoodyNYC @ Sun Dec 02, 2007 at 16:58:01 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Resolved: It's like a jungle sometimes

I'm rollin' down Pennsylvania in my hybrid car
With my Senators McCaskill and Klobuchar
I got more boys than Hangin' Chad
But I won't betray us like a MoveOn ad
Like Deloitte and Touche, I believe in Dodd
And I make more bank than Auburn Quad
In 2004, the place to be was Boston
Now it's Denver, or for bloggers, Austin
Now, I know you're wondering about the Sucka MP
But holla at my boys: "Run, DNC!"

Peace

---

by: Sucka MP @ Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 14:19:39 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Ladies and gentlemen...

...I believe that Swing State Project is the only blog with its own in house rapper!

---

by: James L. @ Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 14:28:03 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I gather this means

that the DCCC is outspending the NRCC 10:1. I'll bet they took a poll and have some interesting info. . .

---

by: andgarden @ Sun Dec 02, 2007 at 15:35:27 PM CST

Kudos

I kept hoping this would happen, but as time passed, I was becoming more discouraged.  This is really great news.  And I doubt the DCCC would jump in unless it saw at least a "reasonable chance" of success.  

Kudos to the DCCC.

Kudos to Wes Clark for fighting for Weirauch and fundraising for her.

Kudos to Brown and Ryan for campaigning for her.

Kudos for the Netroots for keeping the spotlight on this race.    

---

by: hilltopper @ Sun Dec 02, 2007 at 15:45:39 PM CST

Don't forget the big man

Gov. Strickland is going to hit there on a trip or two before the election.  Nine days to go!!!

---

by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Sun Dec 02, 2007 at 16:27:35 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Dollars per vote

In 2006, Gillmour spent $723,000 and got 130,000 votes, or about $5.56 per vote

Weirauch spent $115,000 and got 99,000 votes, or about $1.16 per vote.

If the money race is even.... who knows?

---

by: plf515 @ Sun Dec 02, 2007 at 17:09:31 PM CST

Don't forget the massive GOTV from the

Democratic establishment.  This could be a very hot race.  9 days till we have it play out!  

---

by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Sun Dec 02, 2007 at 17:37:34 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Great news

Given this expenditure and the NRCC own spending on the race, it is resonable to assume polling shows this is a tight race. This is not entirely suprising since Strickland and Bronw both carried the district last year. That being said, this is a district that we need to try and seize when the opportunity is avialable, since it may be a long time before we have another chance at this district.  

---

by: publius2481 @ Sun Dec 02, 2007 at 20:01:24 PM CST

This is so awesome!

A win here could really build momentum. It could even make a few more Republicans retire and a few more Democrats step up to the plate.

If we win in a set that's R+10, then any seat that's tilts Republicans by less than double digits has to be seen as competitive.

Even the six Texas seats that don't have Democrats currently running could become interesting to watch.

(Granted, they have incumbents to deal with, but a unexpectedly strong candidate, one that is passionate and has great leadership, could, with the right support, surprise.)  

---

by: C.S.Strowbridge @ Sun Dec 02, 2007 at 21:58:46 PM CST

According to Cook Political Report

The following districts are held by Democrats and are more Republican than OH-5:

TX-17: Edwards, R+18
UT-02: Matheson, R+17
MS-04: Taylor, R+16
TX-22: Lampson, R+15
ND-AL: Pomeroy, R+13
MO-04: Skelton, R+11
SD-AL: Herseth, R+10

We have several in the R+6 and R+7 area, but that is all we have currently from +10 and up, this would a major coup if we can nail this one or VA-01 which is also R+10 I believe (If it is R+9, you can add IN-09, Ellsworth to the list at a district of R+9).

I'd like us to get some R+14 and R+12 districts so we can get a nice pretty line going on there, lol.  

---

by: trowaman @ Sun Dec 02, 2007 at 22:45:58 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Will this be useful in 2008?

Will the results in OH-5 be useful in predicting 2008 results? If the Democrats win, does that mean they are in good shape to win Ohio's EC votes? Or would that be reading too much into it?

---

by: C.S.Strowbridge @ Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 02:58:18 AM CST

[ Parent ]

I'd say no

But it would say how large our advantage is in 50/50 district due to our cash advantage. It speaks more to DCCC power than to Democratic power overall.

---

by: trowaman @ Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 03:32:52 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Unfortunately

What this tells me is that a low-profile Democrat challenging a reasonably competent Republican has a hell of an uphill battle.

We have the cash, so we're right to test the opportunity and see what messages work. However, Weirauch would have to be an extraordinary candidate to pull this off.  

---

by: brittain33 @ Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 08:40:08 AM CST

[ Parent ]