Premium Sponsor

Featured Sponsor

Our Sponsors

Ad Networks

Buy an ad on all of the top liberal blogs with just one click.

Site Stats

OH-05, VA-01: NRCC Dropping Cash in Special Elections

by: James L.

Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 7:42 PM EST

When you're as hard-pressed for cash as the NRCC is, I'm sure that the last thing you want to do is dump money that you don't have into defending two deeply red districts in off-year special elections. But the NRCC is doing just that -- spending precious cash to defend the seats of the late Reps. Paul Gillmor (OH-05) and Jo Ann Davis (VA-01).

As a refresher, let's take a look at how red these districts really are. OH-05 has a PVI of R+10.1, and VA-01 sits at R+8.9. To put it another way, these districts supported Bush by 21 and 22-point margins in 2004. On any given day, these districts should be rock solid turf for the GOP.

But, as Roll Call reports, the NRCC is taking nothing for granted, making some independent expenditures against VA-01 Dem nominee and Iraq vet Phil Forgit on behalf of state Delegate Rob Wittman, the GOP candidate:

NRCC officials refused to comment about the committee's strategy in the special election.
But the committee's independent expenditure arm this week spent almost $8,000 to produce an ad attacking Forgit that hasn't yet aired, bringing its total expenditures for anti-Forgit activity to almost $39,000. The NRCC also has spent about $3,100 on phone banks to help Wittman.

As Roll Call implies, that expenditure will balloon very shortly, as the NRCC buys the necessary ad time to put their Forgit attack ad on the air.

We can also expect some NRCC-funded fireworks in Ohio's 5th district, where Republicans have spent over $9000 for the production of another ad (this one positive in tone, apparently) in support of Republican Bob Latta. Latta, as you may recall, won a bruising primary against state Sen. Steve Buehrer earlier this month.

Is the NRCC really sweating over the prospect of losing these districts? It would be a shocker for either of these races to end up in the Dem column, but perhaps Republicans are intent on playing it safe, because they can't afford not to.

James L. :: OH-05, VA-01: NRCC Dropping Cash in Special Elections

Tags: OH-05, VA-01, (All Tags)

Print Friendly View

Send As Email

OH-05, VA-01: NRCC Dropping Cash in Special Elections | 21 comments

Hmm

I don't know if this is a good thing or a bad thing. The good news is that Republicans will be forced to spend money that they can hardly afford to spend on seats that should be safe. The bad news is that Republicans are now aware that these seats could be competitive and we probably wont be able to fly under the radar in them. I would also watch the ads, because the NRCC produces some of the nastiest ads ever. I would bet anybody on here a million dollars that the ad against Forgit will attack Nancy Pelosi and "the liberal Democrat majority". These guys are just too damn predictable.

by: Sean @ Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 19:38:28 PM CST

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Definitely

My guess is it will be all about Congress trying to raise taxes and a vote for the Democrat will be a vote for Pelosi and I seriously doubt Iraq will be mentioned.

by: Progressive America @ Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 20:50:29 PM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

You know it

Even though Congress has not raised taxes. If they did, Bush would have had to sign them into law, since, uh, there is a Republican President. One thing that could stick in this district is Forgit mentioning that Republicans voted to cut Medicare and Social Security in their 2007 alternative budget proposal, since there are a lot of seniors in this district. It really annoys me that Democrats don't use this silver bullet much more often against Republicans in races like this.

by: Sean @ Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 21:08:14 PM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Websites

Forgit is not a politician. He's a teacher and National Guardsman who went to Iraq and won a Bronze Star. It looks like he may have some union contacts (NEA teacher award) so that might be attacked there but he has no public record voting for taxes, etc. Expect one of two lines of attack from his career pol opponent (22 years as an office holder): taxes and/or immigrant bashing. Parts of this district hit the DC exurbs so taxes might be a natural for the Republicans even though immigrant bashing is the flavor du jour.

A more creative line would be to claim that voting Republican would break the Republican created logjam and get things done for the district. How dumb does the GOP think voters in this district are? To be determined.

by: David Kowalski @ Fri Nov 30, 2007 at 08:26:18 AM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

NRSC spending money is good...

but I just got used to not seeing political ads here in VA, now that the state elections are over. It was a nice reprieve. Guess I'll just have to deal with it...

by: wmlawman @ Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 21:07:49 PM CST

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

My inaugural bash

GOP dropping cash like I drop MCs
I make more commission than Edwin Meese
Larry Craig's pants dropped like Henry Hyde
His margin is narrow but his stance is wide
Every two years I run up in DC
And I vote more times than the elderly
I got more rhymes than Domenici's got pajamas
And I got much back like Oprah got Obama's
Dropping bombs like your Rahm, I rock '08
Like Diamond Dogs, I'm your candidate

Peace

by: Sucka MP @ Fri Nov 30, 2007 at 00:39:38 AM CST

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Question

Of these two, does anyone have any inside information as to which one is more likely to be won by the democratic candidates, and how much more likely?

Now taking al bets . . . (not literally)

by: trowaman @ Fri Nov 30, 2007 at 02:52:48 AM CST

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Here's what I've heard

I've heard literally nothing about the Virginia race.

As for the Ohio race, a couple US Representatives have held fundraisers for Weirauch, Senator Brown campaigned for her a little, and governor Strickland is going to campaign for her some too over the next couple weeks.

So I would take the Ohio seat over Virginia, but who knows.

by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Fri Nov 30, 2007 at 08:36:49 AM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

I would guess OH-05 the better bet because...

...Sherrod Brown and Ted Strickland both carried the district, proving a Democrat can win there under the right circumstances. But it's still a very uphill climb, and the Rethugs nominated their best candidate.

VA-01, in contrast, hasn't been carried by any statewide Democrat in recent elections. George Allen won 54% in VA-01 last year, and that's about as bad as any Rethug has performed there.

Plus Ohio generally is less conservative than Virginia, but that may or may not mean anything when comparing specific districts that are gerrymandered anyway.

My wife caught me intellectually masturbating looking at dirty polls on Swing State Project.

by: DCCyclone @ Fri Nov 30, 2007 at 11:05:40 AM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

And the DCCC?

If the RCCC is spending some of its little stash on these two special elections, with the DCCC open its vaults to help our longshot candidates?

I hope they will, but expect that they won't. That would be a signal that the DCCC will be going along the same lines as in '06, putting all its efforts into the most predictable races -- which allows the Repubs to figure out exactly where the Dems will be attacking -- while being worse than stingy on all the longshot races where the Repubs can be taken by surprise.

by: WoodyNYC @ Fri Nov 30, 2007 at 13:13:00 PM CST

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

DNC, DCCC, SEIU and ODP are all in OH-05

But the nature of the District makes it an uphill struggle.

(Even Emily's List finally came on board.)

by: ohio_anon @ Fri Nov 30, 2007 at 13:49:09 PM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Also AFL-CIO...

...has some staff in OH-5.

by: Seth D @ Fri Nov 30, 2007 at 14:45:00 PM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

GOTV in Ohio 5

Josh from the Wulsin Campaign asked me to come over to help work the streets the last weekend through the election; I think another Wulsin volunteer will be there also.

As always the Painter's Union( my brothers) will be there.
Any campaign can use feet on the ground, so if you are within a couple of hundred miles of northwest Ohio you should call the campaign to volunteer.

Any recommendation of a good beer bar in that part of Ohio would be appreciated.

by: ChicagoJim @ Fri Nov 30, 2007 at 18:10:47 PM CST

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Good beer

It's a big District (all or part of 16 counties.)

Where do you think you'll be staying?

by: ohio_anon @ Fri Nov 30, 2007 at 20:28:03 PM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

good beer

Don't know where I'm staying. Josh is suppose to set something up for me so I guess I'll know Monday or Tuesday.

by: ChicagoJim @ Sat Dec 01, 2007 at 16:20:06 PM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Keep us posted

Campaign HQ is in Bowling Green. College town. Toledo has micro-breweries, etc. (25 miles north.)

by: ohio_anon @ Sun Dec 02, 2007 at 11:20:36 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Statewide Results in VA-01, OH-05

Does anyone know how Democrats did in these two districs in the last statewide races?

Tim Kaine and Jim Webb in VA-01

Sherrod Brown and Ted Strickland in OH-05. I thought I read somewhere that Attorney General Marc Dann narrowly won OH-05 in 2006, but I can't remember where I saw that or if it was true.

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

by: nrafter530 @ Fri Nov 30, 2007 at 23:45:28 PM CST

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Results

In OH-05, both Brown and Strickland won in 2006.

In VA-01, Kaine got 46% in 2005 and Webb got 44% in 2006. This shows that there is a base for Democrats here, mostly in Newport News, Prince William, and Hampton.

by: Sean @ Sat Dec 01, 2007 at 00:17:54 AM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Where did you find those results?

just out of curosity

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

by: nrafter530 @ Sat Dec 01, 2007 at 01:45:17 AM CST

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

VA Secratary of state

and I calculated the results by county for OH-05 based on the 2006 election results.

by: Sean @ Sat Dec 01, 2007 at 14:05:13 PM CST

[ Parent ]

It looks like

http://www.dccc.org/rapid_resp...

The NRCC is now sending out press releases(whats the point?), attacking Weirauch for supporting healthcare for illegal immigrants and her support from the "extreme" Emily's List. Emily's List is no more extreme than Grover Norquist's Americans for Tax Reform.

I don't know what they will attack Forgit on. They can't really attack him on immigration because he looks to be very conservative on it, as he supports Heath Shuler's bill. My guess is that they will say he would raise taxes.

by: Sean @ Sat Dec 01, 2007 at 14:11:27 PM CST

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

OH-05, VA-01: NRCC Dropping Cash in Special Elections | 21 comments