always a bridesmaid...

Me thinks that Trent is heading back home after learning that our senior senator, Thad Cochran, announced that he will run for reelection.  Lott has always wanted to be the senior senator from Mississippi, but Thad was always in his way.  

Now the question is who Governor Barbour will appoint.  Rep. Pickering?  Rep. Wicker?  Lt. Gov. Tuck?  Haley is no fool; he's going to pick the person most likely to hold the seat to a heated election with either former AG Moore or former Gov. Musgrove.  

Pickering stated once that his position in the minority party in Congress helped push him into retirement.  It wouldn't make much sense for him to be on the other side of the rotunda where he'll be in the minority party as well.

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by: mississippiboy @ Mon Nov 26, 2007 at 09:13:18 AM CST

Minority status

Ah, but the minority in the Senate gets to have more fun (assuming the Democrats don't reach 60 seats).

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by: KCinDC @ Mon Nov 26, 2007 at 09:45:44 AM CST

[ Parent ]

maybe lott went a-trollin' with vitter

i have no evidence to this effect, but maybe lott's implicated in the dc madam scandal.  it would explain why he's leaving so suddenly.  also, who's going to be the new whip i wonder.

being normal is for the mediocre.

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by: doug_tuttle @ Mon Nov 26, 2007 at 10:32:06 AM CST

[ Parent ]

It's Pickering that I'm wondering about.

44 year old future Senator with no competitive House races on the horizon suddenly leaves the Congress, and now is considered a non-factor in an open Senate seat?  He's the one who went trolling for whores, I think.

TPM got an explicit denial from Palfrey's lawyer that Ferguson was on the famous phone records.  Has anyone heard from said lawyer re: Pickering?

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by: texas dem @ Mon Nov 26, 2007 at 15:31:42 PM CST

[ Parent ]

they say Lamar! is still interested in a leadership post

If passed over a second time, do you think he'll become distraught enough to retire?  It seems silly, but I imagine that Vanderbilt presidency, or whatever it was would look pretty nice, and after 2008, especially if McConnell loses, or steps down, the GOP will probably look north, or west for leadership, not south.  by then they'll have realized what most dems did years ago, being propped up by the south only makes you beholden to crazy special interests the rest of the country finds horrid, (in basic chronologic order slavery, the kkk, Jim crow, opposition to bi-racial marriage) or ridiculous (anti-stem cell, Terri Schiavo, the whole confederate flag thing).

being normal is for the mediocre.

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by: doug_tuttle @ Mon Nov 26, 2007 at 10:50:35 AM CST

rumor has it...

My sources tell me that former governor Musgrove is being named as the Democratic frontrunner.  yay!

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by: mississippiboy @ Mon Nov 26, 2007 at 11:11:34 AM CST

and one more...

I'm also being told that state senator Charlie Ross, who ran for Lt. Gov. in 2007, is being considered for the seat.  He and Gov. Barbour are pretty close, so it'd be interesting to see how it plays out.

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by: mississippiboy @ Mon Nov 26, 2007 at 11:15:52 AM CST

[ Parent ]

The relevant case law on this matter

§ 23-15-855. Elections to fill vacancies in office of U.S. Senator; interim appointments by Governor.

(1)  If a vacancy shall occur in the office of United States Senator from Mississippi by death, resignation or otherwise, the Governor shall, within ten (10) days after receiving official notice of such vacancy, issue his proclamation for an election to be held in the state to elect a Senator to fill such unexpired term as may remain, provided the unexpired term is more than twelve (12) months and the election shall be held within ninety (90) days from the time the proclamation is issued and the returns of such election shall be certified to the Governor in the manner set out above for regular elections, unless the vacancy shall occur in a year that there shall be held a general state or congressional election, in which event the Governor's proclamation shall designate the general election day as the time for electing a Senator, and the vacancy shall be filled by appointment as hereinafter provided.

So if Lott's resignation is effective on 12/31, then I think that they have to call a special election by March.

If Lott's resignation is effective on 1/1, then the election will be held in November.

And i'm pretty sure that the special election is supposed to be "initial election -> runoff"

or at least it will be that way if they hold an election in March.

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by: RBH @ Mon Nov 26, 2007 at 11:24:09 AM CST

Oh

I do hope one of our big guys gets in and the DSCC gets behind him big. It would be so rich to go into Nov 08 with a Senate victory in the deep south.

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by: Populista @ Mon Nov 26, 2007 at 11:24:57 AM CST

He is not finding a way to put this off till 10.

Can the Republicans really afford another open Senate Seat?

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by: democraticavenger @ Mon Nov 26, 2007 at 11:44:18 AM CST

Thoughts from Gov. Barbour...

GOV. HALEY BARBOUR

"Senator Lott's decision to resign will result in a terrible loss for Mississippi and for the country.

Pursuant to Mississippi law, specifically § 23-15-855 (1), of the Mississippi Code, once the resignation takes effect, I will call a Special Election for United States Senator to be held on November 4, 2008, being the regular general election day for the 2008 congressional elections.

Further, within ten days of Senator Lott's resignation's taking effect, I will appoint a Senator to serve until the winner of the Special Election for United States Senator is elected and commissioned, as provided in § 23-15-855 (2) of the Mississippi Code. My goal is to appoint the best qualified person who can do the most for our state and country.

I will not be a candidate for Senator in the Special Election, and obviously, I won't appoint myself to fill the vacancy on an interim basis."

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by: mississippiboy @ Mon Nov 26, 2007 at 13:32:02 PM CST

:)

Honestly, can this year be any better for the Dems in the Senate?  Even if it were to be Pickering, that shouldn't scare off any of our big name guys and even if we lose, imagine the amount of money the NRSC will have to spend here instead of MN, OR, or ME.  

That 60 filibuster proof margin is seriously within our grasps, it can be done, we just need to bust our asses working for these Senate candidates.

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by: Andrew @ Mon Nov 26, 2007 at 13:46:45 PM CST

Love it

First, it is nice to see an active and strong bench in such a red state like Mississippi.  

Second, I can't wait to see this race develop.  It's exciting, and it is going to be a nice couple weeks.  Carson finally retired in Indiana, and it's only going to get better for us.  

Rundown
0 of 12 Democrats in the Senate are retiring
6 of 23 Republicans are retiring from the senate
5 of 233 Democrats are retiring from the House.  (Three are running for senate)
17 of 202 Republicans are retiring from the House.  (Two are running for one senate seat)

The dice are rolling our way.  

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Mon Nov 26, 2007 at 14:59:33 PM CST

And that's just the beginning...

At this point, if the Dems only pick up 4 Senate seats, I'll be disappointed. If they only pick up 10 House seats, I'll be just as disappointed.  

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by: C.S.Strowbridge @ Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 05:42:06 AM CST

[ Parent ]

!!!, to coin a phrase.

What others have said makes sense - Lott knows he probably won't be in the majority again, Cochran will always be in the way of his being Senior Senator, and he can't go work for K Street after December 31st thanks to the new lobbying laws.

I'm no fan of Musgrove, who's about as progressive as Ben Nelson, but he's still a marked improvement over good ol' Trent, and it's not as though we're going to get a true progressive out of Mississippi, anyway. Still, I'm concerned that the ideological fractures among Senate Democrats aren't going to be helped by winning a few more Republican seats. If we have Musgrove, Warner, and Shaheen on one side and Udall, Udall and, say, Steve Novick or Al Franken on the other, they'll essentially cancel each other out. More Democrats overall, and it doesn't matter as much who caucuses where with a Democratic White House, but it's still going to be messy, esp. if Reid remains in charge.

So if McConnell goes down (which he probably will), Lott's now retiring, and Lamar! buggers off to Vanderbilt out of spite for them both, who's the new minority leader? (Can I venture a guess that Gordon Smith, if he doesn't lose, is vying for the job? What else would he stand to gain from hanging out with Mitch and Trent all day? It does nothing for his "moderate" image.) My other best guess is that Mike Enzi, as the safest GOP Senator in the country (and also one of the most cretinous) gets the position in a walk.  

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by: notanothersonofabush @ Mon Nov 26, 2007 at 15:24:58 PM CST

Shaheen

What is her voting style going to be?  I hear that she isn't that progressive but I havent heard any examples or policy positions.

Will she be a Blanche Lincoln, Hillary Clinton, or an Amy Klobuchar?  (Lincoln being the most conservative and scales up to Klobuchar, I didn't bother adding in the most progressive since from what you guys say she clearly wont be that.)

I can live with a Klobuchar, she's my Senator and I am quite content with her, Clinton is pushing it, Lincoln we could've done better and still won.

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by: Andrew @ Mon Nov 26, 2007 at 18:31:32 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Klobuchar/Lincoln

Somewere in between. She was more like Lincoln as guv but since she will win in a landslide and NH is so blue now she should shift to the left.

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by: Populista @ Mon Nov 26, 2007 at 18:59:22 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Next in line after Mitch

It'll probably be Jon Kyl. He's next in line in the leadership and has already announced he's running for Lott's job.

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by: armand @ Mon Nov 26, 2007 at 19:36:29 PM CST

[ Parent ]

*nods*

There isn't a piece of obstructionist legislation since Kyl was elected in 1994 that hasn't had his greasy fingerprints all over it. He's the brain behind McConnell and the others, and a truly dangerous man - moreso, I think, than any other elected Republican except for Cheney. The press has mostly gone out of its way not to report on him (save one "Ten Best Senators" article in Time), so he's essentially been able to do whatever he wants. I would've assumed he'd stay where he is in the hierarchy, as any higher would risk exposing to his constituents and the world how truly awful he is. He didn't win by a very large percentage in 2006 (mostly because his constituents didn't know who he was thanks to McCain getting all the press), Arizona is slowly bluing, and a win against the likely Senate Minority Leader would help Democrats compensate for a 2012 map that's otherwise as bad for them as the 2008 and 2010 maps are for the Republicans.

On the bright side, Kyl being in the picture increases the odds that Lamar! gets passed over again and retires out of spite for the whole process.  

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by: notanothersonofabush @ Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 09:59:39 AM CST

[ Parent ]

You should also add that Mike Moore is considering

Info via Cilliza's "The Fix"

For Democrats, the Fix has learned that former state Attorney General Mike Moore -- Democrats' dream candidate -- is indeed interested in the contest and is considering a race. If Moore ran, he would likely clear the field.

Here: http://blog.washingtonpost.com...

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Mon Nov 26, 2007 at 15:59:21 PM CST

wouldn't it be great

if cochran decided to hell with it, and retired just for the heck of it, and we could run moore and musgrove for two DIFFERENT senate seats!  it won't happen i know, but a guy can dream can't he?

being normal is for the mediocre.

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by: doug_tuttle @ Mon Nov 26, 2007 at 18:31:21 PM CST

Haha

Now that would be wild.  I bet he wanted to retire, but Lott talked him out of it (MS would lose all of its seniority in the Senate).

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by: James L. @ Mon Nov 26, 2007 at 18:55:34 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Winnable seat

Bush carried MS with 60% of the vote -- more than three years ago.

But according to the 2004 CNN exit poll, Kerry won 63% of the MS voters under age 30. So if voters now age 18, 19, and 20 are like the twentysomethings, Democrats are gaining voters by about two to one.

Meanwhile, Bush got 75% of MS voters over age 65. But annual voter mortality is estimated as about 1.25%. Naturally, the impact is greatest on older voters. A statistician could do a better calculation, but by the back of the envelope, Bush voters have been dying off about twice as fast as Kerry voters.

In '04 Bush got that same 60% as his approval rating (with only nine states giving a higher figure). But by October, '07, his approval in MS fell to the 41-45% range (with three states in the lower range).

Of course, approval ratings don't match vote share exactly, but if they did, a re-run of the '04 election would see Bush get only get 45% of the MS vote.

Lott's Senate seat is very winnable.

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by: WoodyNYC @ Mon Nov 26, 2007 at 19:49:10 PM CST