Kean vs. Stender

What are our odds? Anyone?

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by: trowaman @ Mon Nov 19, 2007 at 12:30:50 PM CST

Best to answer it this way

Having the guy with 750K in the bank, retiring... Our odds are a lot better now than they were.  That's for sure. 

Stender raised 240K last quarter and 270K total so far... I don't know when she officially "rejoined" the race though. 

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Mon Nov 19, 2007 at 13:30:13 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Will Kean be easier to beat than Ferguson?

What was the vote that Kean got in '06 in this CD? I guess an open seat is almost always better than an incumbent (WY-AL excepted) but Kean will be formidable.  Money won't be an issue for him, and he has very high name id from the '06 race. 

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by: vicupstate @ Mon Nov 19, 2007 at 13:30:19 PM CST

and AK-AL and CA-04 (Doolittle) and CA-41 (Lewis) and,

possibly, OH-02 (Schmidt).

There are quite a few districts where the incumbent Republican is so tarnished by scandal (definitely the first 3 I mentioned) or have disgraced themselves (Schmidt) that the Democratic challenger would definitely fare better against them than an (as yet) untarnished non-incumbent Republican.

But, yeah, in general, it's far better to face a non-incumbent.

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by: verasoie @ Mon Nov 19, 2007 at 17:27:40 PM CST

[ Parent ]

High name ID from the Senate Race and...

His dad, Gov Kean, is the most popular Republican in the past 25 years in NJ.  I would be interested in Kean Jr's returns in the Cong Dist last time.  We can hope he has been forced to take controversial Republican positions and had to be negative in that race and can be pegged as a "loyal bushie" rather than as the non-partisan common sense guy that his dad is known as.

Any chance that someone other than Stender might enter now?  Is she our best hope?

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by: st paul sage @ Mon Nov 19, 2007 at 16:12:58 PM CST

Kean

Tom Kean was elected minority leader of the senate, I don't think he would give that up to run for the house. Plus I think he is more interrested in running for Governor in 2009 against Corzine.

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by: Edwards2008 @ Mon Nov 19, 2007 at 17:22:02 PM CST

This is difficult

this is one of those seats where it was probably easier to beat the incumbent than to win an open seat, but not by much.

Democrats will have a tough time beating Tom Kean Jr, as they need to win his state senate district to win districtwide.

Also if Giuliani is the nominee, all bets are off. He'll win this district soundly.

Stender is the only Democrat who can do it, and against anyone but Kean with a GOP Presidential nominee who is not Giuliani, she has this pretty close to in the bag.

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Mon Nov 19, 2007 at 17:44:30 PM CST