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OH-05: Lackluster Latta Poll

by: James L.

Thu Nov 15, 2007 at 2:01 PM EST

With the December 11th special election to fill the seat of the late Rep. Paul Gillmor (R), we now have our first poll of the race.

Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Bob Latta (Nov. 11-12, likely voters):

Robin Weirauch (D): 36%
Bob Latta (R): 50%

Generic Democrat: 37%
Generic Republican: 45%
(MoE: ±5.2%)

This is a district that gave Bush 61% of its vote in 2004, so Latta's 50% and especially the generic R tallies are especially underwhelming.  POS isn't the most reputable of Republican pollsters, but the result is still interesting.  Weirauch has a tough hill to climb and not much time to do it, but Latta isn't blowing her out of the water yet.

James L. :: OH-05: Lackluster Latta Poll
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POS has a history
of leaning overwhelmingly Republican.  Just look at some of their polling in the 2006 cycle.  Their polling was skewed up 14 points towards Republicans.  The only race they were even close to getting right was NM-01 where they had Wilson leading 48%-46% and she won 50%-50%.  One of their worst was the one in PA-07 that had Weldon leading Sestak by 52%-33%, and Sestak won 56%-44%. 

So I guess "POS"...
...isn't just a clever name.

[ Parent ]
Whoa there pardner ...
There's plenty of room for interpretation here, but in my experience POS is the best there is for Republican pollsters. They are a huge firm, though. There's nothing comparable in the Dem firmament. They have literally dozens and dozens of pollsters underneath their banner. Some are better than others. The office here in Colorado is very reliable and accurate.

[ Parent ]
How about
Garin-Hart-Yang? A pretty reliable Democratic pollster in my opinion.

[ Parent ]
We should get at least 43%
in this election.  There would be no excuse for losing by two to one or more in this special election they we did in GA-10 or other special elections in Republican seats in the past. 

It all depends on turnout
Can Weirauch make enough noise to inspire people to get to the polls?  That remains to be seen.

[ Parent ]
"Lackluster Latta"
Yeah, that's Bob in a (wing)nutshell.

Dumber than a brick and twice as boring.

We needed either a Buehrer win in the primary OR for it to be too close to call and require a recount. Didn't quite happen. The CTG has moved on and the old line GOP has closed ranks. Gillmor's wife is making robocalls for Latta and Buehrer will eventually offer a feeble "endorsement.' Without Ted and Sherrod on the ballot, anything over 35% is gravy.

In 2012 there might still be a District called "OH-05" but it won't be this one.

And that's first chance for this District to be in play. (Unless, it gets used to quarantine GOP voters, which could happen.)

"Dumber than a brick and twice as boring"
BEST. SLAM. EVER. You have quite the wit, you know ;-).

[ Parent ]
lackluster for Democrats
While the generic number may be OK, Latta outperforms that, even after a difficult and close primary. 

The Latta name must carry a lot of weight in NW Ohio--Delbert Latta was household name for the GOP in the 70s and 80s.

Del Latta LOVED Dick Nixon. He brought The Trickster to the annual Wood County GOP Lincoln Day Dinner as keynote speaker I would guess in 1967.

Near the finale of the House judiciary committee impeachment hearings on Nixon, a GOP committee member had a big heart attack (gosh, I wonder why?) and the GOP needed a replacement and Del Latta volunteered for the job.

After John Dean testified, after the WaPost ran the Woodward and Bernstein articles, just TWO DAYS, just FORTY EIGHT HOURS before Nixon was indicted (impeached) Del Latta offered up this gem to explain his rabid defense of Nixon:

"Show me a solid piece of evidence and I'll show you a vote for impeachment!"

His son once told me, in all seriousness, that the solution to our problems in education was that we should go back to using "McGuffy's Readers" with their quaint tales filled of bigotry and racism.

[ Parent ]

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