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NM-Sen: Udall Will Decide in Two Weeks

by: James L.

Mon Nov 05, 2007 at 12:00 AM EST


Democracy For New Mexico has the scoop:

Rep. Tom Udall (NM-03) spoke to New Mexico Democrats yesterday at the Party's State Central Committee meeting at Smith-Brasher hall at CNM in Albuquerque. Bottom line: Udall will take another two weeks to listen to what the people and his family have to say, and weigh the pros and cons of giving up his secure U.S. House seat in Northern New Mexico before making a decision on entering the 2008 U.S. Senate in New Mexico. [...]

Udall entered the hall to a standing ovation, loud chants of "Run, Tom, Run" and a multitude of waving signs urging the same. His speech touched on many of today's hot button issues including Iraq, supporting our troops by getting them out of harm's way, protecting civil liberties, holding the telecoms accountable for warrantless surveillance and providing expanded children's health care. He emphasized that we need 60 votes in the Senate to overcome a Bush veto of legislation that the U.S. House has been passing  on matters like ending the war and regaining and preserving our Constitutional rights. It certainly sounded to me like he was leaning towards running to take back the seat held for so long by Pete Domenici, and helping to make that 60 vote majority a reality in the Senate.

Check the full account, with pictures and video, here.  There certainly is a deep hunger for a Tom Udall candidacy at the grassroots level, as the groundswell of support at the Central Committee meeting indicates.  Run, Tom, Run!

New Mexico FBIHOP has more.

(H/T: S2G)

James L. :: NM-Sen: Udall Will Decide in Two Weeks
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Hmm ...
I guess your tea leaves are as good as mine. Well, better actually, since you were there. But that sounds a LOT like a "leaning against" to me. You don't take two weeks to "discuss" with your family when you've known the seat was available for months and Chuck Schumer has your cell on auto-dial.

I've got a beer says he says no.


On the other hand....
It sounds like a great way to generate two weeks of free media/build up for an announcement. 

Chances are he has already made of his mind, and is just milking the sitution for his own benefit, as well he should. 

Of course, that could just be wishful thinking on my part, but I would take the bet myself. 


[ Parent ]
Disagree
If you read Cilliza of WaPo at all, he says there is no doubt in the Washington crowd that Udall *is* going to run in New Mexico.  He is doing the "Exploratory phase" pre-announcement, you travel around and try to milk the press a little.  Stumbo is doing this in Kentucky, and Versace is doing this in IL-18. 

Once you announce, then you get a wave of press.  Udall will get more press traveling around pre-announcement because writers will write about how he might run for US Senate, and he'll be the frontrunner if he does.  Then when he announces, they'll write about him all over again.  Whereas, if he announced first, he would get one media flash instead of two.  Earned press is a MAJOR part of campaigns. 


[ Parent ]
In addition to what the others are saying
If he was not going to run, he creates a lot of ill-will unnecessarily by allowing public statements to come out that he is reconsidering. If he genuinely was intending to say he wasn't planning to run for senate, he wouldn't go through all of this crap, he would've reaffirmed that he is definitely not running.

By doing it this way, he also has the added bonus of being on the good side of grassroots (by saying he wasn't going to run, but being "convinced" by the grassroots, it adds another level of legitimacy to the campaign).

If Tom Udall allowed all this press to come out and make this big local stink about it and announce he doesn't want to run, he would kill any possible chance of being courted for higher office, and might even create a backlash in a reelection campaign in the House.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
And, finally,
the "x politican was drafted to run for office by wildly enthusiastic supporters" is a GREAT storyline, for anyone.  Being drafted is much much much more appealing than being another ambitious politician.  Udall has every reason to let the "drafting" stage drag on as long as is plausible.  Not only is it a ton of free media, but it's extremely positive free media that sets up positive narratives about what kind of person he is (ie, not hyper-ambitious, but responsive to the people, and beloved by them).

Udall is playing this very very well.

What it makes me wonder is if he was really serious when he decided in 24 hours not to run after Domenici announced.  He knows the landscape in NM as well as anyone... he knows that Chavez, Madrid, Udall, Denish and Richardson are all there is.  He declined, waited for Denish and Richardson to say no, and then waited for the inevitable "pressure to reconsider."  He knew that absent Denish and Richardson (who are clearly running for governor and SecState, respectively) that there is no one in the state but him.  And being begged to run puts you in a much stronger position than volunteering yourself for the position.  Witness the $5mil that Schumer promised DeFazio, and the fast-track to Appropriations that he will probably promise Udall.

The only counter to this theory I can think of is that being a House Appropriations cardinal is SOOOO good, that he could well have been sincere in preferring it to a Senate seat, especially one he might actually have to actively defend someday.  And, he's only got a 75% chance of beating Heather Wilson, despite what everyone else here seems to think.  So given that switching chambers does have some drawbacks, it was appropriate (no pun intended) for him to force others to beg him.

Anyway, I can't wait to hear "Udall of Colorado" and "Udall of New Mexico" in the rollcall votes come 2009.

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08


[ Parent ]
Organized
I think the Draft Udall movement is very well orchestrated for a spontaneous grassroots upwelling of support. Not that there's anything wrong with that.

[ Parent ]

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