• AZ-Sen: As the Arizona GOP Senate primary heats up, ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth has pulled in a prominent backer, one of the state's unfortunately most popular politicians: Maricopa Co. Sheriff Joe Arpaio. Arpaio - a hero of the anti-immigrant set who'd been the subject of calls to get into the gubernatorial race this year - wrote a fundraising letter for Hayworth that's being sent around nationally.
• FL-Sen: Marco Rubio got two more endorsements today from the GOP's right flank: from Indiana's Rep. Mike Pence, #3 in the House GOP and a favorite of the social values set, and on the economic-conservative side of the party, bathtub-drowning fan Grover Norquist.
• NH-Sen (pdf): A couple different polls are out today in the New Hampshire Senate race, although both from pollsters in the "take with salt" category. UNH looks at the general election, finding a lead for Kelly Ayotte over Paul Hodes that's about in line with most other pollsters: 41-33. Hodes leads the lesser GOPers in the race, though; he beats Jim Bender 36-27, William Binnie 34-30, and Ovide Lamontagne 38-29. What about that thorny GOP primary, though? Republican internal pollster Magellan has some answers, although it's not clear if this poll was on the behalf of any particular candidate. They see Ayotte at 37%, but contrary to that recent R2K poll, they have Binnie in second place at 23% and Lamontagne back at 12. (Binnie seems to be the most moderate in the field, and gained a lot of attention, at least in the Boston media market parts of the state, for running ads on behalf of Scott Brown in Massachusetts.) In case anyone was wondering about the GOP gubernatorial primary, that's in there too, although nobody has any idea who these candidates are: Jack Kimball beats Karen Testerman 18-5.
• AL-Gov: There's one other interesting poll from a Republican pollster of a Republican primary (this time in Alabama); it's from Baselice, and they're explicit about not working on behalf of any of these candidates. Former higher ed system chancellor Bradley Byrne has a narrow lead, and he has a lot of company. Byrne is at 20, followed closely by wingnut judge Roy Moore at 17. Real estate developer (and gubernatorial spawn) Tim James is at 8, state Rep. Robert Bentley is at 4, state treasurer Kay Ivey is at 3, and former Economic Development Dir. Bill Johnson is at 2.
• AL-05: Democrats now have two candidates lined up to go against Parker Griffith (or whatever other GOPer teabags him out of a job): the new one is attorney (and former Air Force JAG) Mitchell Howie. Howie is young and doesn't have electoral experience, but is the grandson of a well-loved local physician. Prominent attorney Taze Shepard made his candidacy official today as well (via press release).
• AL-07: EMILY's List weighed in with an endorsement in the Democratic primary in the 7th. Interestingly, they showed their hand even though there are two women well-positioned in the field - and they went with attorney Terri Sewell, who's something of the moneyed-interests candidate in the race with ties to outgoing Rep. Artur Davis, rather than the more progressive option of Jefferson Co. Commissioner Shelia Smoot.
• AR-02: Add one more Dem to the field in the 2nd, to replace retiring Rep. Vic Snyder. Assistant Attorney General John Adams launched a bid today, although it's unclear whether he'll pose much of an obstacle to state House speaker Robbie Wills.
• AZ-03: One of the widely-expected candidates to run in the open seat vacated by Rep. John Shadegg has decided not to get involved, after all. Shadegg's former chief of staff Sean Noble said he won't run. The field is already top-heavy with Republicans, including former state Sens. Pamela Gorman and Jim Waring (both of whom resigned to run, per state law), former state Rep. Sam Crump, Paradise Valley mayor Vernon Parker, and former Paradise Valley mayor Ed Winkler.
• CO-03: Hat-tip to Daily Kos's Steve Singiser, who, while rummaging through the used-polls bin, found a stale Republican internal poll of the race in the 3rd that hadn't caught anyone's notice before. It points to a close race in the Republican-leaning, mostly-rural district; Democratic Rep. Pete Salazar leads GOP state Rep. Scott Tipton (who lost the 2006 race to Salazar) 46-44.
• NH-01, 02 (pdf): Both of the New Hampshire House races are looking like tossups, according to the same UNH poll mentioned above. In the 1st, they find Rep. Carol Shea-Porter in bad shape against any of her GOP challengers; she loses 43-33 to Frank Guinta, 36-33 to Bob Bestani, 36-33 to Rich Ashooh, and 39-32 to Sean Mahoney. (Of course, UNH repeatedly showed her in a tight spot in 2008 until the closing weeks of the campaign - although without Obama coattails this year, she may not get that late boost.) And in the 2nd, Dems only win one potential matchup: Katrina Swett beats Jennifer Horn 30-26. Swett loses to Charlie Bass 37-30, while Ann McLane Kuster loses to both Bass (39-28) and Horn (28-25). (One other caveat: these are small samples, with 6.2% MoEs.)
• NJ-02: Add Rep. Frank LoBiondo to the long list of establishment Republicans getting a good teabagging this year. Schoolteacher and tea partier Michael Conte will challenge LoBiondo in the GOP primary. Conte seems most put out about LoBiondo's cap-and-trade vote, and supports opening up the Jersey Shore to offshore oil drilling. (Somehow, I can't see that part being popular.)
• TX-14: The epidemic of own-eating on the teabagging right has reached French Revolution proportions, to the extent that now Ron Paul, pretty much the spiritual forefather of the movement, is facing not one but three teabagging primary challengers. Weirdly, one of their knocks against Paul is that he's "too extreme," and also that he's against the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan... all pretty suggestive that there's nothing "new" about the Tea Party movement, just that it's a catchall for conservative Republicans who are feeling extra-agitated about things.
• TX-32: The DCCC has been stepping up its attacks on Rep. Pete Sessions, maybe in part to keep the NRCC head pinned down a bit, but also because they may sense this is one of the few places where they have a legitimate shot at playing offense. Between the district's rapidly changing demographics, Sessions' ties to Ponzi schemer "Sir" Alan Stanford, a serious primary challenge from a teabagger, and good fundraising from Dem challenger Grier Raggio, there may be some substance to that.
• IL-LG: With Dan Hynes having taken his name out of consideration for the now-vacant LG slot for the Dems in Illinois, Lynn Sweet runs down the top contenders. First on the docket is state Rep. Art Turner, who finished second to Scott Lee Cohen in the primary and now has state House speaker Michael Madigan's stamp of approval. Other possibilities include state Sen. Rickey Hendon, state Sen. Terry Link, or state Rep. Mike Boland (all of whom fared worse in the primary), or if they want to go with a woman, either state Rep. Julie Hamos (who narrowly lost the IL-10 primary, and is now campaigning for the LG slot) or VA Deputy Sec. Tammy Duckworth.
• CfG: A couple more endorsements, as the Club for Growth picked the zaniest of the bunch in a few competitive primaries in dark-red seats that are open. They endorsed former state GOP chair Robin Smith in TN-03, and businessman Mike Pompeo in KS-04.
• NRCC: Here's a good catch from the Boston Phoenix: the NRCC is really putting the "guns" in "Young Guns," as a whopping total of 4 of the 64 members of its offense program are women - with only one, Martha Roby (in AL-02) looking like she's in position to possibly make it through both the primary and general.
• NY-St. Ass.: There are not one, but four, special elections for open seats in New York's Assembly tonight, all resulting from legislators getting elected to something better-paying in November. The Democrats are defending seats in Queens (although there the Republican lineholder is a lifelong Democrat), Suffolk County, and Westchester County, while the Republicans are defending a Nassau County seat.
• Polltopia: More back-and-forth in the discussion over the polls that SurveyUSA performed for Firedoglake, that we may have accidentally triggered (pointing out the dramatically low young-voter composition of the polls). SurveyUSA's Jay Leve responded "vehemently" (Mark Blumenthal's words) to last week's critique from poli sci professor Alan Abramowitz, while Blumenthal offers some interesting graphs showing the disparity between the SurveyUSA numbers and actual Catalist records. PPP's Tom Jensen offered some qualified support for SurveyUSA, though, by pointing out that even if you "weighted up" the youth numbers to the levels seen in Catalist (the Dems' voter database), it wouldn't tend to impact the topline numbers by a significant amount.
Rick Perry (R-inc): 39
Kay Bailey Hutchison (R): 28
Debra Medina (R): 24
Undecided: 10
(MoE: ±4.8%)
(Medina supporters only: who is your second choice?)
Rick Perry (R-inc): 43
Kay Bailey Hutchison (R): 39
Undecided: 18
(MoE: ±9.7%)
Bill White (D): 49
Farouk Shami (D): 19
Undecided: 24
(MoE: ±4.9%)
I don't think anyone was expecting this: PPP takes a look at the primary races in the Texas governor's race, and finds Debra Medina, the Paulist candidate who was something of a nobody before the debates, making a huge impact in the race. Not only is her presence almost certainly going to force a runoff now -- with Rick Perry unlikely to top 50% -- but it's now at least conceivable that she and not Kay Bailey Hutchison could be the one who makes it to the runoff with Perry. There must be a major freakout going on at KBH HQ today; this is all a bit reminiscent of what must have happened last month with the Martha Coakley camp, when the nice lady who'd been coasting for a while finally looked in the rear view mirror and realized that object was closer than it appeared.
What I find baffling, though, is how Medina supporters will split if she doesn't make it into the runoff. You'd think that Medina's right-wing followers would all pile into the Perry camp, given a choice between Perry's anti-Washington posturing and KBH's decades of insiderness. Nope: it's almost an even split, with a narrow edge to Perry... suggesting that Medina is tapping into a lot of generalized anti-Perry sentiment too, or maybe just that the voters have a really superficial understanding of the differences between the candidates. (Of course, now maybe the more interesting question we should be asking is: how would KBH supporters split if she didn't make it into the runoff?)
Finally, there's the little matter of the Democratic primary. Houston mayor Bill White isn't currently making it over the 50% mark against hair product magnate Farouk Shami, but he's almost there, with a sizable number of undecideds left to break.
• IN-Sen: The Dan Coats rollout is turning into more of a field day for Democratic opposition researchers than the strike-fear-in-the-hearts-of-Democrats moment that Republicans may have hoped for. I'm not even sure what to lead off with... that Coats dissed his own state, saying that North Carolina, where he intended to retire, was a "better place" than Indiana (although Coats' spokesperson is now saying that Coats intends to "do his part" and sell his $1.8 million waterfront house in Wilmington, NC)... or that Coats has been active in lobbying on behalf of foreign powers, representing India himself, while his firm was lobbying on behalf of extremist hotbed Yemen. I'm starting to wonder if the GOP would actually be better off sticking with the somewhat nuttier and flakier John Hostettler, who isn't stepping aside for Coats. While Hostettler won't have Coats' Beltway money, he at least has the profile to keep the various right-wing weirdo elements (teabaggers, Paulists, the religious right) at fever pitch.
• NV-Sen: I'm not sure which is more of an overstuffed clown car: the Republican Senate field in Arkansas, or Nevada. It looks like one more GOPer may join the fun in Nevada: retired Navy commander Kirk Lippold, whose main claim to fame is commanding the USS Cole when it was attacked (in Yemen).
• NY-Sen: TV talking head and economic conservative Larry Kudlow is "80 or 90%" likely to run against Charles Schumer, according to Kudlow ally John Lakian. Even if he runs, though, it sounds like Kudlow is in no hurry to decide (he wants to keep his TV show as long as possible, which he'd have to give up if he became a candidate). This isn't the first time Kudlow, a veteran of the Reagan White House, has been the subject of Senate speculation; he was considered a Senate contender way back in the early 90s, before getting derailed by drug and alcohol problems.
• NY-Sen-B: Kirsten Gillibrand is taking aim at Harold Ford Jr.'s associations with Merrill Lynch and the Bank of America. Ford's camp has had little to say after Gillibrand called for Ford to disclose details of his Merrill Lynch bonuses. Ford, in the meantime, is busy comparing himself to Robert F. Kennedy. How? Well, the liberal establishment opposed him too... or at least Eleanor Roosevelt did... or at least she would have, if she hadn't in fact died several years before he ran for Senate.
• PA-Sen: Arlen Specter got the endorsement of the statewide Democratic party committee over the weekend, winning a solid majority of the votes, underscoring his establishment support. (Of course, one of his biggest establishment supporters, Ed Rendell, lost the state party's 2002 endorsement in the gubernatorial race to Bob Casey and went on to win the primary anyway.) Part of the proceedings was a feisty debate between Specter and Joe Sestak, with Specter going hard after Sestak's number of missed votes in the House recently.
• WA-Sen: Republicans got at least something of an upgrade in the Senate race against Patty Murray: long-time state Sen. Don Benton decided to get into the race. (The best they had so far was ex-NFL player and current teabagger Clint Didier.) Benton has represented the Vancouver suburbs for many years; in fact, his biggest claim to fame is narrowly losing the WA-03 open seat race to Brian Baird way back in 1998. In fact, I'm a little surprised he isn't looking to the again-open 3rd if he's going for an upgrade, where he would have a good chance at shoving aside the other less-known GOPers in the field, whereas he faces long odds against Murray unless things go completely kerflooey for the Democrats. Unfortunately, the race is a freebie for Benton; he isn't up for re-election in 2010, so Dems won't get a shot at his swingy Senate seat in LD 17. It remains to be seen whether Benton got an official behind-the-scenes green light after nobody better (Dino Rossi, Dave Reichert) was interested in the race, or just that Benton decided to roll the dice regardless.
• RI-Gov: A poll by Fleming & Associates on behalf of WPRI finds that a race between independent ex-Sen. Lincoln Chafee and Democratic state treasurer Frank Caprio is a dead heat: Chafee pulls in 31 and Caprio is at 30, with Republican candidate John Robitaille flailing at 13. AG Patrick Lynch, the other possible Dem nominee, doesn't fare as well; he loses to Chafee 34-23, with Robitaille at 18.
• HI-01: Hawaii Democrats have avoided a potential problem with the decision of state Sen. Will Espero not to get involved in the still-not-scheduled special election in the 1st. Under Hawaii law, the special election is an all-party, winner-take-all affair, so the worries have been that with two prominent Dems already in the race, a fractured field could allow Republican Charles Djou to sneak through (although the one poll of the race seems to disabuse us of that notion). Neil Abercrombie's resignation is now scheduled for Feb. 28.
• KS-03: Democrats are pretty much at square one in trying to find a nominee to replace retiring Rep. Dennis Moore. Joe Reardon had been pretty much everyone's top pick, but Reardon, whose official title is "Mayor/CEO of the Unified Government of Wyandotte County/Kansas City, Kansas," won't run. With his mayoral predecessor, Carol Marinovich, also taking a pass, this R+3 seat seems on track to be one of the Dems' likeliest losses - although Reardon's demurral may open the door to a candidate from suburban Johnson County instead, which may still work out better since that's where most of the district's votes are.
• LA-03: "Entrepreneur" Chris Leopold filed to get into the GOP field in the open seat race in the 3rd, but what may be most noteworthy here is who all hasn't filed. Attorney Ravi Sangisetty is the only Dem, and while Leopold's entry brings the GOP field up to 4, the only elected official is state Rep. Nickie Monica. The GOP establishment still seems to be waiting on Hunt Downer, the former state House speaker and current assistant adjutant general of the state's National Guard. The problem is that few people seem interested in a two-year stint in the House, only to see the 3rd get vaporized due to Louisiana losing a seat for 2012.
• MS-01: Here's a strange development, considering how much effort the NRCC spent to clear the path for state Sen. Alan Nunnelee: Fox News commentator Angela McGlowan will be running in the GOP primary too. McGlowan kicked off her bid with an appearance at Teabag-o-rama in Nashville this weekend. It looks like the Republican establishment will be trying to prevent McGlowan from getting any traction, as they privately point to her various negatives: having lobbied for Steve Wynn's gambling empire (not a popular issue in this heavily evangelical area), and claiming an opposition research treasure trove from her past interviews. There's also a geographical problem: her base (not that a base really matters, as she's spent little time in the state in years) is the college town of Oxford, which puts her in neither bloc in terms of the Memphis suburbs/Tupelo split in the district.
• NH-01: Former NRC committee member Sean Mahoney, who had earlier thought about and then ruled out a run in the GOP field, is starting to sound interested again. Mahoney (who lost the NH-01 GOP primary in 2002 to Jeb Bradley) dropped out when the NRCC seemed content with Manchester mayor Frank Guinta, but with Guinta's star fading the wake of mediocre fundraising, he may sense an opening. Compounding that is the recent entry into the primary by businessman Rich Ashooh; Guinta and Ashooh are both from Manchester, so the Portsmouth-based Mahoney may think he can ride the geographical split to victory.
• PA-03: Democratic freshman Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper keeps attracting random money bags challengers, even as none of the district's elected Republicans seem interested in a promotion. Today it's yet another one of those freakin' ophthalmologists: Tom Trevorrow, who kicked off his campaign with $150K out of his own pocket and hired some expensive-sounding consultants.
• SC-01: A swap in races in South Carolina means that there's the plausible possibility of the Republicans having their first African-American House member since J.C. Watts retired. State Rep. Tim Scott dropped his bid to become the next Lt. Governor, and instead switched over to the open seat race in the 1st, where he'll face the scions of two prominent political families: Paul Thurmond, and Carroll "Tumpy" Campbell III.
• Minnesota: Minnesota lawmakers are moving up the primary date this fall, in order to better comply with federal law that requires overseas voters get at least 45 days to return their absentee ballots. They're planning to move the election from September, up to Aug. 10. (This is probably good, in terms of giving the winner of the DFL gubernatorial primary more time to recover from what's likely to be a giant clusterf@ck.)
• NRCC: The NRCC will unveil more changes to its "Young Guns" program this week, with 14 new entrants to its lowest tier ("On the Radar") and some promotions to higher tiers as well. They aren't releasing the full list yet, but some leaked names moving onto the list include state Rep. Scott Bruun in OR-05, former state Rep. David McKinley in WV-01, and ex-Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick in PA-08. We'll discuss this in more detail once the full list is available.
Lansing mayor Virg Bernero, who'd sent a few mixed signals, seems to finally have things straightened out, and is plowing straight ahead on his run for the Democratic gubernatorial nod.
Mr. Bernero, a 45-year-old Pontiac native, made the announcement in front of an auto parts supplier in Detroit, promising to challenge excessive credit card interest rates, foreclosures, and tuition increases.
"We're done playing games, we're fighting back," Mr. Bernero said, according to the Detroit Free Press.
Interestingly, he's launching his campaign in Detroit rather than Lansing, saying it's "going to be a great city again." Bernero, who received national attention for his impassioned defense of the bailout of the American automakers, is likely to sound a more populist note than his more business-friendly competition in the primary.
Rep. John Murtha, the longest serving member of Pennsylvania's House delegation, died today at age 77. He was hospitalized in intensive care after experiencing complications from surgery last week.
We'll update as more information becomes available.
Rep. Dave Obey (D-Wis.), the Chairman of the House Appropriations Committee:
Jack Murtha was the first Vietnam veteran to serve in Congress and he was incredibly effective in his service in the House. He understood the misery of war. Every person who serves in the military has lost an advocate and a good friend today. My wife Joan and I extend our sympathy and prayers to his wife Joyce, and the entire Murtha family.
Rep. Edward J. Markey (D), the dean of the Massachusetts congressional delegation:
I am saddened to learn of the death of Jack Murtha, a man that I have known for the last 34 years.
While Jack was always known as a military hawk, he became a leading voice in the effort to bring an end to the war in Iraq and it is in no small part due to his work in this area that America is now on track to removing all combat troops from that country by this summer.
My thoughts go out to his wife Joyce and the rest of the Murtha family.
Rep. John Boozman officially entered the Arkansas Senate race this weekend. While he had telegraphed this for weeks, his official entry means that there's finally a top-tier candidate for the Republicans. This race was a tossup even with a grab-bag of state legislators and self-funders, thanks to the Democratic brand's decay in Arkansas and Blanche Lincoln's play-it-down-the-middle-and-appeal-to-nobody approach. Two polls this week gave Boozman a lead over Lincoln in the 20-point ballpark, though, indicating that a stronger Republican probably pushes this one out of Lincoln's grasp.
Boozman will still have to fight his way out of the crowded GOP primary -- state Sen. Gilbert Baker and businessman Curtis Coleman aren't getting out of the way (although some of the lesser opposition, like Tom Cox and Buddy Rogers, have bailed out), and Boozman's long House tenure may be a liability in an anti-incumbent, anti-establishment year. His base in the state's dark-red northwest will probably see him through the primary, though.
IL-Gov (Quinn): Likely D to Tossup
It's a bit of a surprise that Pat Quinn survived the primary election, as the primary campaign revealed he had something of a glass jaw, and the last few polls of the race showed him with terrible approval ratings and getting edged by challenger Dan Hynes. It's never a good sign to have a bloody, depleted victor staggering out of a barely-won primary, and his problems are compounded by general anti-incumbent fervor and bad economic conditions in the Rust Belt, which is enough for us to move this race all the way up to Tossup.
Still, there are a few things that Quinn has in his favor: he has an extremely long period (nine months) to rehabilitate himself, while the Republicans won't even have a nominee for a while, and most likely it'll be Bill Brady -- while Illinois throughout the 80s and 90s was happy to elect moderate, suburban Republicans to statewide office, it remains to be seen whether a socially conservative downstate resident can get over the hump. Finally, the Scott Lee Cohen sideshow quickly and suitably resolved itself this weekend, leaving the state party to pick a more appealing running mate... although, after some initial lukewarm interest, Hynes has now taken his name out of consideration for a unity ticket.
You can find our complete ratings here: Sen | Gov.
Scott Lee Cohen, the Democratic nominee for Illinois lieutenant governor, removed himself from the campaign Sunday, freeing Gov. Pat Quinn from the baggage Cohen brought to the ticket, but also leaving him without a running mate.
"I'm someone who made mistakes in my life. And look where I am. If I let you down I'm sorry," Cohen said Sunday evening in a tearful announcement at the Hop Haus Tavern.
For days, the pawn broker-turned Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor was dogged over allegations he abused anabolic steroids, went into fits of rage, sexually abused his then-wife, got behind in child support payments and held a knife to the throat of a former girlfriend who is a convicted prostitute.
The task now turns to Illinois Democratic Party leaders to pick a replacement for Cohen. As head-spinning and bad of an episode as this has been, at least it resolved itself fairly quickly. The Republican gubernatorial primary, however, looks like it won't be resolving itself any time soon.
Selection of a replacement to fill the ballot vacancy is the work of the 38-member Democratic State Central Committee, made up of a male and female representative from each of the state's 19 congressional districts. The state central committee is scheduled to meet March 17, though a meeting could be held sooner.
Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu appears to have routed five major challengers in today's mayoral primary, riding a sense of regret among voters who rejected him four years ago and extraordinary biracial support to claim a rare first-round victory.
With 90 of the city's 366 precincts counted, Landrieu had 64 percent of the vote, according to WWL-TV. His closest challenger, businessman Troy Henry, had 15 percent.
When he takes office May 6, Landrieu will become the city's first white chief executive since his father, Moon Landrieu, left the job in 1978. Early analysis shows that Mitch Landrieu's victory owed to widespread crossover voting by African-Americans, who make up two-thirds of the city's residents.
This was Landrieu's third try at the office - he lost in a runoff to outgoing mayor Ray Nagin in 2006. State Sen. Ed Murray's unexpected departure from the race in January was a big part of Landrieu's landslide, but the NYT identifies another interesting reason:
Just as the election was gaining heat, the Saints happened to win a trip to the Super Bowl and all talk of the mayor's race was drowned out for its last two weeks. That made it much harder for lesser-known candidates to gain traction.
As a Jets fan, I am definitely rooting for the Saints over the Colts. Feel free to use this as a Super Bowl open thread!
UPDATE: As Izengabe points out in comments, Gov. Bobby Jindal will get to appoint a replacement for Landrieu (his pick has to be confirmed by a majority of both houses of the state lege). GOPVoter provides a list of possible names, but note that Jindal is also trying to get rid of the Lt. Gov. position entirely.
UPDATE (David): Check it out - every time you use bit.ly to create a short URL for a link here at the Swing State Project, you'll now get a link to our new "ssp.bz" (think "buzz") micro-domain, such as: http://ssp.bz/7se2hb. This is especially great for Twitter users - whenever you see an ssp.bz link, now you'll always know the source, regardless of who tweets it. This hotness is courtesy bitly.Pro, a free service which launched tonight.
UPDATE 2 (David): So I didn't have my explanation of bitly.Pro quite right. It turns out that for now, only the editors of SSP can create ssp.bz links. The ability to make that universal hasn't been rolled out yet. But even so, any time you see an ssp.bz link on Twitter or elsewhere, you'll know it's from us.
Also, since sapelcovits brought up the "What congressional district do you live in?" question, I thought I'd bring back this Frappr map we created when we first asked this question a couple of years ago. You can joint to show fellow SSPers where you're from (no personal information is revealed):
• FL-Sen: Jeb Bush has studiously avoided explicitly taking sides in the Florida Senate primary, but various actions (like sending out his sons to endorse Marco Rubio) have tipped his hand. Another moment like that today, as he said on a radio interview that he's "proud" of Rubio and the challenge he's mounted. Meanwhile, Charlie Crist seems to be digging in rather than making plans to switch to an indie or Dem bid: he's saying "he's no RINO," and perhaps more tellingly, now saying he opposes the repeal of "don't ask don't tell," a wedge issue he could be using to propel himself out of the GOP if he so chose. (h/t sapelcovits)
• OH-Sen: Geez, this is just bad to worse for Jennifer Brunner. She's been holding off on reporting her fundraising again, and here's why: she raised $93,000 in the fourth quarter, and managed to burn through more than that, leaving her sitting on a whopping total of $60,000 in the bank (1% of what Rob Portman has). Clearly she thinks someone is going to bail her out at some point - I'm just wondering who she thinks it'll be.
• FL-Gov (pdf): Republican internal pollster McLaughlin & Assocs. finds a sizable lead for Republican AG Bill McCollum over Democratic state CFO Alex Sink: 41-30. That's right in line with both Rasmussen and Quinnipiac's most recent looks at the race, so this one seems to be moving away from Sink for the time being.
• IL-Gov: With all the new allegations popping up about pawnbroker-turned-LG nominee Scott Lee Cohen - on top of yesterday's news about his rap sheet, today's news features his steroid use and resulting 'roid rage and sexual violence -- I'm starting to wonder where the other Lt. Governor candidates were in terms of doing opposition research. For that matter, where was the media? That's the kind of thing that sells papers, if nothing else. At any rate, Cohen is saying he isn't stepping down (having invested more than $2 million of his own money in winning the race purely on name rec), while Pat Quinn is reduced to saying that "the situation will resolve itself." Ex-Sen. Adlai Stevenson is advising Quinn to take the same route he did in 1986 when he was saddled with a LaRouchie running mate, which is to abandon ship and make a third-party run. Of course, that didn't work too well for Stevenson, who lost anyway, although he was running an uphill fight against popular Gov. Jim Thompson.
The one bright spot for the Dems in all this is that the GOP may be months away from having a candidate. State Sen. Kirk Dillard, who came up 406 votes short, isn't conceding, and is saying let's wait until all the absentee and provisional ballots (possibly up to 10,000 of them) are counted. Even if he wants a recount, that won't be able to start until the race's certification in early March.
• MN-Gov: The Democratic field in the Minnesota governor's race got a little smaller, as state Sen. Steve Kelley dropped out. He was probably motivated by his poor showing on Tuesday's informal straw poll, where he finished with 4%, behind at least half a dozen other candidates and "uncommitted" as well.
• OR-Gov: With ex-SoS Bill Bradbury getting a Howard Dean endorsement, ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber just rolled out an endorsement of his own from another netroots favorite: Steve Novick, who barely lost the 2008 Senate primary. Kitzhaber, of course, was one of the few establishment figures to line up behind Novick, so Novick is returning the favor. (You've gotta love the photo of the two of them at the link.)
• AL-05: Looks like the Democrats are moving closer to a candidate to take on Parker Griffith (or whoever defeats him in the GOP primary). Taze Shepard, a Huntsville attorney and elected member of the state Board of Education in the 90s, is considering the race. He has quite the pedigree, too: he's the grandson of John Sparkman, who represented the 5th from 1936-1946 and then was Alabama's senator from 1947 to 1979 (and was the Democratic VP nominee in 1952). Also, Griffith may have a little more company in the GOP primary, and it's an old foe: businessman Wayne Parker, who narrowly lost to the Democratic version of Griffith in the open seat race in 2008.
• MA-10: There are increasing retirement rumors about Rep. William Delahunt, since, of course, the dominant narrative is that Democrats start to cry and run home as soon as usually-ignored Reps face a halfway-credible challenge. Also feeding the rumors, perhaps, are Delahunt's fundraising numbers from last quarter: $31K (although he is sitting on $568K). What may be most interesting is that the rumors all come with a likely replacement attached: Joe Kennedy III.
• WA-08: Ex-Microsoft executive Suzan Del Bene brings her own money to the race (and lots of it - she already has $773K on hand, compared with Rep. Dave Reichert's $477K), but now she's poised to tap into a nationwide donor base, with an endorsement from EMILY's List.
• Mayors: So primary season is here for real: the primary election in the New Orleans mayoral race is tomorrow. With a highly cluttered field and one clear frontrunner looming over the field (Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu), the real question here seems to be who manages to get into a runoff with Landrieu (who was polling at 45% in the most recent poll of the race). Other major opponents include John Georges, Rob Couhig, Nadine Ramsey, James Perry, and Troy Henry.
Research 2000 for Daily Kos (2/1-3, likely voters, 7/13-15 in parentheses)
Paul Hodes (D): 39 (38)
Kelly Ayotte (R): 46 (39)
Undecided: 11 (23)
Paul Hodes (D): 46
Ovide Lamontagne (R): 36
Undecided: 13
Paul Hodes (D): 45
William Binnie (R): 35
Undecided: 15
(MoE: ±4%)
Kelly Ayotte (R): 36
Ovide Lamontagne (R): 27
William Binnie (R): 4
Undecided: 33
(MoE: ±5%)
John Lynch (D): 59
Jack Kimball (R): 13
Undecided: 26
(MoE: ±4%)
The toplines in Research 2000's new poll of the New Hampshire Senate race aren't that noteworthy; they fall right in line with most other recent polls of the race, which have given Republican ex-AG Kelly Ayotte a 5 or 7 point lead over Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes. The trendlines aren't very appealing, but they go back to July, and think about everything (mostly bad for the Dem brand) that's happened in the last half a year; at any rate, Ayotte's gain has only come out of the undecided column.
What's very intersting about this poll is the GOP primary, about which we have precious little information so far. Ayotte has been running a startlingly substance-free campaign, leaving her to get squeezed both on the right by Ovide Lamontagne, favorite of national movement conservatives, and perhaps on the left (though it's hard to tell, since Ayotte hasn't given us any benchmarks) by businessman William Binnie, who seems to be operating in traditional New England moderate mode.
The only poll we've had about the primary prior to this one is a Kelly Ayotte internal from Tarrance from last month, where she led Lamontagne 43-11, with Binnie at 5 and Bender at 3. That poll seemed pretty optimistic to me from the outset, and now we have some confirmation from an independent pollster that Ayotte's in a real fight here. With 33% still undecided, there's still plenty of time for Lamontagne to torpedo Ayotte -- especially if he can pick up national-level institutional backing, from the Club for Growth, the tea partiers, and their ilk. And considering that Lamontagne loses convincingly to Hodes in the general, I sure hope these groups are taking notice. (For what it's worth, Ayotte is starting to go on the air, with her first radio spot, suggesting that she may be starting to notice that she can't sleepwalk her way to the nomination.)
There are also numbers from the gubernatorial race, one of the few uncompetitive ones anywhere in the country. Centrist Democratic incumbent John Lynch has a 57% generic re-elect, and thumps GOP businessman Jack Kimball in a head-to-head. (Kimball may lose in the primary to social conservative activist Karen Testerman, but either way, this race doesn't look like it'll be on anyone's radar come November.)
• CA-Sen: Possibly the most bizarre political ad (well, web video) of all time has just gotten unveiled by the Carly Fiorina campaign, which makes their "Carlyfornia Dreaming" website look reasoned and well-thought-out. I mean, they're going to be studying this in political rhetoric classes 50 years from now, as an example of what not to do. Not only is the imagery laughable (check out the glowing-eyed demon sheep at 2:24) but the metaphor completely falls apart (Tom Campbell is a "FCINO" (financial conservative in name only) and thus a crafty wolf, while good politicians are a herd of helpless mindless sheep?).
• CT-Sen: Even Rasmussen can't find a way to put a happy face on the tombstone piledriver the Connecticut GOP suffered with the Chris Dodd-for-Richard Blumenthal swap. They find Blumenthal leading ex-Rep. Rob Simmons 54-35 and Gorgeous Lady of Wrestling Linda McMahon 56-36. Simmons is actually very well-liked, at 60/26 favorables, but that's no match for Blumenthal at 70/27.
• IL-Sen: Republicans can content themselves with Rasmussen's first post-primary poll of the Senate field; they find GOP Rep. Mark Kirk leading Dem state treasurer Alexi Giannoulias 46-40. This, of course, doesn't jibe with not only last week's PPP poll (with a 42-34 Alexi lead) but the last Rasmussen poll of the general, from December (with a 42-39 Alexi lead). Both those polls predate the strangely-timed consent decree between the FDIC and the Giannoulias-family-owned Broadway Bank, so it's possible Giannoulias might have taken a hit from that. Also, Rasmussen's numbers aren't that far off from an internal (pdf) from Magellan that the Kirk campaign was quick to release yesterday: 47-35. One suggestion that might cast a little doubt on the samples, though, is Barack Obama's approval ratings in his home state, oddly low at 54% and 51% respectively, only a few points ahead of his national average.
• IN-Sen: Ex-Sen. Dan Coats is leaving himself a lot of elbow room with the way he's carefully phrased what he's doing: "as I test the waters for a potential challenge..." I realize that SSP is pretty much powerless to change the nature of the political discourse, but we're getting very tired of the whole "I'm not running, but I'm running, wink wink" kabuki that seems to be standard practice these days (John Boozman, we're talking to you too). We fully intend to change the rating on this race, but not until Coats truly and officially gets in. At any rate, Coats may be wise leaving himself an escape hatch, if the dribs and drabs like this one keep piling up: one of his lobbying clients has been Hugo Chavez-connected oil company Harvest Natural Resources (but, then, making nice with Chavez is IOKIYAR, I guess).
• WI-Sen: If you're looking for a tea leaf on whether or not ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson is interested in taking on Russ Feingold this year, look no further: he just took a position as an advisor to a hedge fund. He'll consult with Peak Ridge Capital Group on agribusiness matters. Not only will that keep him occupied in the near future, but it's not really the kind of thing you want on your resume if trying to run at a time of anti-banker agitas. (Another hint: the talk of an ex-Rep. Mark Neumann switch from the Governor's race, to a rematch with Feingold, suddenly bubbling up.)
• IL-Gov: We have winners in the gubernatorial primaries, as all of Illinois's precincts reported by the end of the day yesterday. Pat Quinn wound up with a more than 8,000 vote margin over Dan Hynes (good for 50.4%), and Hynes conceded this morning. On the Republican side, state Sen. Kirk Dillard didn't make up as much ground in Cook County on fellow state Sen. Bill Brady as anticipated, and Brady wound up finishing with a 406-vote margin. There's no automatic recount law in Illinois, so it's up to Dillard to decide whether or not to proceed with a challenge.
Meanwhile, down the ballot, both parties seem somewhat aghast at the winners of their Lt. Governor primaries. News came out today that pawnbroker Scott Lee Cohen, winner of the Democratic nod, was arrested four years ago for misdemeanor assault after holding a knife to the throat of a girlfriend (who had also been convicted of prostitution). Needless to say, Quinn is already distancing himself from Cohen, calling on him to step aside. (Although Governor and Lt. Governor are elected separately in primaries, they're then lashed together as a ticket for the general, which is how Rod Blagojevich and Quinn got put together despite their antipathy - I'm not sure if any other state does it that way.) Which isn't to say that the Republicans fared much better on that front, nominating random teabagging businessman Jason Plummer (who, like Cohen, won by pouring his own money into the race) instead of state Sen. Matt Murphy.
• NY-Gov: I can't see this being of any interest unless something goes seriously wrong and we somehow wind up with a David Paterson/Rick Lazio matchup and we need to shunt off some right-wing votes to get Paterson over the hump. But now there's a teabagger-linked rich guy, Buffalo real estate developer Carl Paladino, saying that he's considering a gubernatorial run, and that he "would go in as a pure independent."
• PA-Gov: Allegheny Co. Exec Dan Onorato has the big financial edge in the Dem gubernatorial primary, and now he has some key labor backing as well. The Teamsters are the first major union to endorse in the primary, and they went for Onorato.
• TX-Gov: Looks like there's going to be a crazy Wang Dang Tango at Rick Perry's Houston rally on Sunday: not only is Sarah Palin going to be there to endorse Perry, but so too is the Motor City Madman, the Ten Terrible Fingers of Doom, the Rock 'n' Roll Caveman: Ted Nugent (who plans to perform). In case you're wondering where the normally reserved and understated Nugent stands on all things political, he recently said: "I think that Barack Hussein Obama should be put in jail. It is clear that Barack Hussein Obama is a communist. Mao Tse Tung lives and his name is Barack Hussein Obama. This country should be ashamed. I wanna throw up."
• AR-01: The first Democrat making moves to replace retiring Rep. Marion Berry is Berry's very own Chief of Staff, Chad Causey, who has already scheduled a fundraiser. State Sen. Steve Bryles, state Rep. Keith Ingram, and former state party chair Jason Willett are other Dems publicly eyeing the race. For the GOP, broadcaster Rick Crawford probably won't have the race to himself, with state Sen. Johnny Key interested. Princella Smith is also likely to get in - she'll definitely need a new job starting in November, as she's currently a staffer to Rep. Joe Cao.
• FL-24: The 24th seems like an apt target for Republicans, with a Republican lean and freshman Rep. Suzanne Kosmas not quite finding her footing - but fundraising has gone poorly for the two GOPers in the race, state Rep. Sandy Adams and Winter Park city councilor Karen Diebel, neither of whom has broken into the six digits in the last few quarters. The NRCC is now touting the likely entry of Craig Miller, the former CEO of Ruth's Chris Steakhouses. He's never held office before, but at least he brings his own money with him.
• NC-10: In the dark-red 10th, the only way odious chickenhawk Rep. Patrick McHenry is going to get dislodged is in a GOP primary - and it's starting to look like that's a possibility this year. Not one but two different opponents have outraised him (although mostly by dipping into their own wallets): dentist and Iredell Co. Commissioner Scott Keadle and businessman Vance Patterson. Keadle has some electoral experience, coming within 14 points of Mel Watt in NC-12 in 1998, during the brief period when the frequently-modified VRA district had a sizable white plurality. Keadle claims to be coming at McHenry from the right, which is hard to fathom as McHenry is already one of the most stridently conservative members of the House.
• NH-01: Another one-time NRCC fave who's fallen by the side of the road somewhat as he's put up quarter after quarter of mediocre fundraising is former Manchester mayor Frank Guinta. Sensing an opening, several other contenders have gotten into the GOP field; one, Richard Ashooh, has been exploring the race but made it official today. He comes with his own set of insider credentials, though: he's the VP of governmental relations for large locally-based defense contractor BAE Systems.
• NY-23: Talk about not learning from the past. If Assemblyman Will Barclay wins the GOP nomination, he may find himself getting Scozzafavaed by the same guy. Doug Hoffman plans to run on both the Republican and Conservative lines, but Conservative party chair Mike Long says he'll continue to back Hoffman on the Conservative line even if Hoffman loses the Republican primary.
• Redistricting: There's still a chance to get on the newly-created California legislative redistricting board. The deadline to submit an application is Feb. 12. The state is taking notice that 73% of applicants are non-Hispanic whites and 70% are males, neither of which is very representative of the state's makeup, and is shelling out for a last-minute outreach campaign to bring in some more minority applicants. Part of the problem is that applicants can't have run for office or worked for a politician, which filters out many of the most politically engaged in minority communities. At any rate, it's an opportunity to get more progressives behind the wheel of shaping a more competitive legislative map for next year, so any SSPers in the Golden State are urged to apply.
With January coming to a close, silly season on retirements is hopefully also winding down, giving us a pretty clear picture of the open seats on tap for November. With that in mind, let's do one last version of the House Vulnerability Index, accounting for the wave (wavelet? small whitecap?) of Democratic retirements.
In case you missed the previous installments, I've been developing an index for predicting vulnerability for House members based on a mix of Charlie Cook's PVI and previous House election performance. (It turned out to be pretty useful, in that 2006 numbers were pretty predictive of who actually got knocked off in 2008.) Here's a quick recap of how it works. Check out the chart of vulnerable Democrats below, which indicates that Bobby Bright is in the worst shape. Bobby Bright had the 3rd narrowest margin of victory of any Democrat (0.6%, behind only Tom Perriello at 0.2% and Scott Murphy at 0.4% in the NY-20 special), and he's in the district with the 4th worst PVI of any Democrat (R+16, behind only Chet Edwards, Gene Taylor, and Walt Minnick). Add them up for a raw vulnerability score of 7, the worst of any Democrat. Slightly below him you might notice that LA-03 gets a margin of 0 (despite that Charlie Melancon won unopposed in 2008); that's the tweak that I perform for all open seats. With PVI alone (R+12, 13th worst of any Dem-held seat), the raw score is 13, good for 3rd place.
You might remember that in November's installment, I expanded the Democratic list to 50, reflecting the GOP's success at expanding the playing field. Well, I've expanded it again this time, up to 75, not just to accommodate the new red open seats that previously weren't on the list because their entrenched inhabitants had won against little or no opposition in 2008, but also to acknowledge that the danger zone is starting to seep up above 50. Again, not to say that actual losses will be above 50, just that there may be some potential losses up that high on the list. (Eagle-eyed observers will also notice that many of the numbers have shifted down 1 since the previous installment. That's because I'm no longer counting AL-05 among Dem seats, thanks to Parker Griffith's switch.)
District
Rep.
Margin rating
PVI rating
Total
AL-02
Bright
3
4
7
ID-01
Minnick
6
3
9
TN-06
Open
0
10
10
LA-03
Open
0
12
12
MD-01
Kratovil
5
11
16
AR-01
Open
0
21
21
TX-17
Edwards, C.
20
1
21
TN-08
Open
0
30
30
MS-01
Childers
27.5
7
34.5
VA-05
Perriello
1
37
38
NY-29
Massa
7
35
42
AR-02
Open
0
41
41
KS-03
Open
0
48
48
NY-20
Murphy, S.
2
52
54
VA-02
Nye
16.5
39
55.5
GA-08
Marshall
41
15
56
PA-10
Carney
37
19
56
PA-03
Dahlkemper
9
49
58
PA-04
Altmire
33
28
61
MI-07
Schauer
8
55
63
AZ-05
Mitchell
24
42
66
FL-08
Grayson
13
53
66
NM-02
Teague
35
33
68
TN-04
Davis, L.
60
9
69
NY-24
Arcuri
13
56
69
CO-04
Markey, B.
36
34
70
WA-03
Open
0
73
73
OH-16
Boccieri
29.5
47
76.5
AZ-01
Giffords
34
43
77
OH-15
Kilroy
4
74
78
NY-23
Owens
13
65
78
AZ-01
Kirkpatrick
48
31
79
ND-AL
Pomeroy
66
14
80
OH-18
Space
58
23
81
IN-09
Hill
56
26
82
WI-08
Kagen
21
61
82
NJ-03
Adler
15
69
84
TX-23
Rodriguez
39
46
85
NC-08
Kissell
29.5
58
87.5
UT-02
Matheson
84
5
89
NH-01
Shea-Porter
19
71
90
CA-11
McNerney
27.5
63
90.5
FL-24
Kosmas
47
44
91
SC-05
Spratt
67
24
91
OH-01
Driehaus
16.5
77
93.5
FL-02
Boyd
64
32
96
NH-02
Open
0
96
96
NC-11
Shuler
69.5
27
96.5
PA-07
Open
0
98
98
FL-22
Klein
22
76
98
MO-04
Skelton
94.5
6
100.5
NV-03
Titus
18
83
101
NY-19
Hall
51
50
101
CO-03
Salazar
63
40
103
PA-17
Holden
74
29
103
MI-09
Peters
23
82
105
KY-06
Chandler
87.5
18
105.5
IL-14
Foster
44
62
106
IN-08
Ellsworth
87.5
20
107.5
PA-11
Kanjorski
10
101
111
PA-12
Murtha
45
68
113
TX-27
Ortiz
57
60
117
VA-11
Connolly
32
85
117
IA-03
Boswell
40
78
118
NY-01
Bishop, T.
49.5
70
119.5
NY-13
McMahon
75
45
120
SD-AL
Herseth Sandlin
107
17
124
OR-05
Schrader
46
79
125
CT-04
Himes
11
114
125
PA-08
Murphy, P.
43
84
127
WV-03
Rahall
102.5
25
127.5
IL-08
Bean
61
67
128
NY-25
Maffei
38
90
128
IL-11
Halvorson
65
66
131
NM-01
Heinrich
31
108
139
As always, some of these names that are high up the list may not be in much danger: Scott Murphy and Jim Marshall, for instance, are still lacking first (or second-)tier opposition. And some of the higher-up names are, as we've seen, already in grave danger: Steve Driehaus and Dina Titus, up in the 40s, have seen some alarming polls. This is just a rough guide, looking at the various Reps. relative to one another.
Now let's turn to the vulnerable GOP seats. The only change here is that PA-06 has become less vulnerable for the GOP, seeing as how Rep. Jim Gerlach came back to it. It doesn't change much, though; given his lame performance in 2008, he's still the (UPDATE: second) most vulnerable incumbent (although that's largely by virtue of the Republicans having almost no other vulnerable incumbents). None of the other newly-minted GOP-held open seats comes even close to being interesting (CA-19 is closest, with a vulnerability index of 70).
You might be wondering where Parker Griffith is these days. Even if you bumped his margin rating down to 0 (since he's basically starting from scratch), his R+12 district is #102 among Republicans, so he's nowhere near this vulnerability list. (His vulnerability in the primary, of course, is a whole 'nother matter, but I don't purport to measure that.) You might also notice that I've shortened the list down to 10 here. Frankly, with a few possible exceptions (PA-15, MN-06), there's really not much to see here beyond the top 10.
