• House: Congratulations to Rep. John Garamendi, who was sworn in yesterday, and Rep. Bill Owens, who was sworn in today. Garamendi and Owens are joining the Democratic caucus as quickly as possible so that they can be eligible to vote on healthcare reform this weekend. (D)
• AR-Sen: Remember how yesterday NRSC chair John Cornyn caved to the party's right flank, and said that he wouldn't spend money in primaries or endorse in the future? Well, that lasted about a day: turns out that state Sen. Gilbert Baker, the GOP's best shot in Arkansas, will be having a fundraiser in Washington DC on the 19th... at the NRSC. (The NRSC did announce that it still didn't amount to endorsement, and that other Arkansas candidates were still welcome to have fundraisers at the NRSC. Uh, call me when there's actually a fundraiser for head teabagger Tom Cox at the NRSC building.) More generally, CQ has a nice overview of the tightrope Cornyn is walking as he tries to make some inroads in swing states in 2010.
• CA-Sen: Perhaps in an attempt to give some cover to Cornyn (whose hand-picked candidate, Carly Fiorina, is raising the ire of the Chuck DeVore-supporting right wing), eight GOP Senators all endorsed Fiorina yesterday: a couple from leadership (McConnell, Kyl), the moderate women (Snowe, Collins, and Murkowski), some chit-cashing from last year (McCain and Graham), and one from total right field (Coburn). Tom Coburn's endorsement is especially surprising in view of fellow wackadoodle Jim DeMint's endorsement of DeVore. DeMint, for his part, is still attacking John Cornyn's recruitment efforts today, perfectly encapsulating the right-wing mentality while saying "He's trying to find candidates who can win. I'm trying to find people who can help me change the Senate."
• FL-Sen: After Charlie Crist's bizarre denials that he ever supported the Obama stimulus package, the White House left Crist out to dry yesterday, saying that, yes, in fact, he did support the stimulus.
• KS-Sen: This may fall under the "endorsement you don't want to tout too loudly" category, although with most of the big-name endorsements so far going to Rep. Jerry Moran in the Kansas Senate race, Rep. Todd Tiahrt will probaly take what he can get. Former AG and Senator John Ashcroft endorsed Tiahrt.
• MT-Sen: Here's what has the potential to be one of 2012's hottest Senate races, already shaping up. Rep. Denny Rehberg, the state's lone at-large Congressperson, met with the NRSC concerning a possible run at Jon Tester.
• CA-Gov: With ex-Gov. Jerry Brown suddenly finding himself with the gubernatorial primary field to himself for now, a familiar face has popped up yet again. Dianne Feinstein, who all year has alternately expressed interest and dismissed rumors of her interest, is now back to saying that she still hasn't ruled out a gubernatorial run. She'll wait to see what proposals for fixing the badly-broken state the various candidates put out before deciding whether or not to get in herself.
• IL-Gov: Somehow this got lost in all the shuffle surrounding Election Day, but it's kind of important: after a short period of being the subject of speculation, Jim Ryan made it official that he's running for the Republican gubernatorial nomination in Illinois. He probably becomes the frontrunner in the GOP field, by virtue of name rec: he was the state's Attorney General from 1994-2002, and lost the 2002 governor's race to Rod Blagojevich. The rest of the GOP field is a hodge-podge of state Senators and county-level officials, with state GOP chair Andy McKenna maybe the best known of the rest. Ryan's biggest problem may be hoping people don't confuse him with imprisoned ex-Gov. George Ryan or weird-sex-fan and 2004 Senate candidate Jack Ryan.
• MN-Gov: Another gubernatorial entry that seemed to fly below the radar this week is also a big one: Minneapolis mayor R.T. Rybak filed to run for governor yesterday. The well-liked Rybak seems like one of the likeliest candidates to prevail in the very crowded Democratic field.
• NJ-Gov: There are going to be a lot of coulda-shoulda-wouldas in the next few weeks in New Jersey, and here's a big one already. State Senate leader (and former acting Governor) Richard Codey says that the White House contacted him repeatedly over the summer about taking over for Corzine on the ticket, and that Corzine and Codey even discussed it. Codey deferred to Corzine's decision to stay in -- although Corzine nearly decided to pack it in. Reportedly, internal polls over the summer showed Codey beating Chris Christie by double digits.
• NY-Gov: David Paterson is going on the air with two different TV spots (including one where he admits to "lots of mistakes"), apparently trying to bring up his approvals before deciding whether or not to run again in 2010. Paterson is still looking to move forward on the contentious issue of gay marriage, though, planning to put it on the agenda for next week's special session. It may not have the votes to clear the Senate, but it hasn't really been put to the test yet. (The worry is that moderate Republicans in the Senate who might have been on board earlier may be leerier now, afraid of getting Scozzafavaed by the right.)
• NY-23: A rare bit of history was made on Tuesday, in that a seat flipping to the president's party in a House special election (as opposed to a tough retention, as in NY-20) is highly unusual. The most recent case was in VA-04 in 2001, when Republican Randy Forbes picked up a swing district left open by the death of Dem Norman Sisisky. (Subsequent gerrymandering turned the 4th into a safe GOP seat.) The previous instances before that were in 1989, 1988, and 1983.
• TX-32: Pete Sessions Deathwatch, Vol. 3? One more article piles on the "loser" meme regarding Sessions' series of NY-23 screwups -- and it comes from his hometown paper in Dallas. Meanwhile at home, Sessions is now facing a primary challenge from the right, from financial analyst David Smith. Smith is upset about the Scozzafava thing, but mostly focusing on Sessions' TARP vote. Still, a primary challenge from the right against one of the House's most conservative members? Seems like that'd be like going after Tammy Baldwin from the left.
• WI-02: Oh, wait. But that's exactly what some guy is doing. And he's not just a rube who fell off the biodiesel-fueled organic turnip truck while reaching for his bong: it's an actual member of the Board of Supervisors of Dane County (where Madison is). David de Felice is upset that Baldwin hasn't pushed harder for single-payer health care.
• WI-08: Two different new entries in the Green Bay-based 8th. Physician and Air Force vet Marc Trager got into the Republican field to go against Democratic sophomore Rep. Steve Kagen, where businessman Reid Ribble seems to have the inside track based on fundraising and NRCC-touting so far. And yet another random right-winger is imagining his own head superimposed on Doug Hoffman's body: former Niagara mayor Joe Stern will run as a grassroots conservative independent in 2010.
• NY Comptroller: A piece on New York 1 speculates that NYC Comptroller Bill Thompson, fresh off a much narrower-than-expected loss to Mayor Mike Bloomberg, could challenge New York State Comptroller Bill DiNapoli in the Democratic primary next year. DiNapoli, you may recall, was appointed to the seat after Alan Hevesi resigned. Thompson said he's not currently looking at the race, but says that nothing is off the table. (D)
• WA-Init: Referendum 71 was finally called by the press (for the side of equality). Although more votes remain to be counted in the currently 52-48 race, it would require a bizarre turnaround in King County (where it's currently at 70% approval) to change the result. Meanwhile, Seattle's mayoral race is still up in the air; Mike McGinn leads by a 515-vote margin (out of 130,000 counted so far).
• Census: As expected, the Vitter amendment requiring the Census to include a question on citizenship was blocked by Democrats. Conservatives don't want undocumented immigrants to count for apportionment, and there's an added incentive for David Vitter, as Louisiana might be able to salvage its 7th seat if such legislation were passed.
• Primaries: MoveOn and DFA are allocating millions of dollars to potential primary challenges against any Democrats who join a Republican filibuster on health care. (The only one who's on the fence about that and actually up in 2010 is Blanche Lincoln, and nobody of consequence has stepped up to primary her from the left yet, although Lt. Gov. Bill Halter has alluded to the idea.)
• Polling: Mark Blumenthal has a good wrapup of how the various pollsters did on Tuesday. As others have pointed out, IVR polls outperformed live pollsters, at least in the two gubernatorial races (even though they still got weird results in the crosstabs, especially on race). Blumenthal also analyzes what went wrong in NY-23 polling. Also on the polling front, it looks like Nate Silver may have succeeded in scaring off Strategic Vision LLC. As he reports today, not only did they never get around to suing him, but they haven't released any polls since the imbroglio began, despite that this week's election would be the prime time to do so.
• WATN?: Finally, we have sad news to report: the Mumpower has finally been contained. Republican Carl Mumpower, the out-of-the-box thinker who lost spectacularly to Rep. Heath Shuler in 2008, got bounced out of his position as Asheville City Councilor on Tuesday.
Democrats got their woman in Iowa, expanding the Senate playing field a bit:
Des Moines lawyer Roxanne Conlin plans to file paperwork with the Federal Elections Commission next week to run for U.S. Senate next year, adviser Mark Daley said today.
Conlin, a Democrat, has said last month she is more likely than not to seek the seat held by five-term Republican Chuck Grassley, but had to work out how she was going to handle her law practice and staff a campaign first.
Conlin is best known for running for Governor in 1982 (ironically against Terry Branstad, who's back for another gubernatorial run). She was only 38 then, meaning she's a spry 65 now. While she might not have that much residual name rec leftover from 27 years ago, her main asset is money. She's gotten wealthy from her involvement in some class action suits, and she plans to spend up to $10 million on her bid.
She'll be helped along by the precipitous decline in Grassley's approval numbers, which just happen to coincide with his transparently bad-faith negotiating on health care reform. The one poll of this matchup, an R2K poll from last month, shows Grassley leading Conlin 51-39.
• FL-Sen: It looks like the Club for Growth has decided to weigh in on the Florida Senate primary, and they're doing so with a vengeance, with a TV spot going after Charlie Crist's embrace of the Obama stimulus package. Crist himself has been trying for the last few days to walk back his stimulus support -- despite statements on the record from February saying that if he'd been in the Senate, he'd have voted for it. Crist now says he wasn't "endorsing" it and just playing along so Florida would get a good share of the bennies. (I'm sorry, but my 5-year-old comes up with more convincing excuses than that.)
• NY-Sen-B: Former Gov. George Pataki is reportedly telling friends he's not that interested in becoming Senator at age 64, and has his eye set a little higher: a presidential race in 2012. The idea of the wooden, moderate Pataki going up against Huckabee and Palin seems a little far-fetched, but a clue in support of that idea is that Pataki joined the Romneys and T-Paws of the world in calling new Manchester, New Hampshire mayor Ted Gatsas to congratulate him. (In case you aren't connecting the dots, Manchester's mayor has an outsized influence on NH's first-in-the-nation presidential primary.)
• AZ-Gov: Appointed incumbent Republican Governor Jan Brewer says she'll run for a full term in 2010. She already faces several minor primary opponents, and may face off against state Treasurer Dean Martin. Her likely Democratic opponent, AG Terry Goddard, who has had a significant lead over Brewer in recent polls, has to be feeling good about this.
• CA-Gov: Capitol Weekly, via Probolsky Research, takes another look at the primaries in the California gubernatorial race, and find free-spending ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman opening up a lead on her opponents. Whitman leads with 37, against ex-Rep. Tom Cambell at 15 and Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner at 6. (Their previous poll, in June, gave a small lead to Campbell at 13, with 10 for Whitman and 8 for Poizner.) On the Dem side, ex-Gov. Jerry Brown led SF Mayor Gavin Newsom 46-19; the sample was completed shortly before Newsom's dropout last Friday.
• MD-Gov: A poll of the Maryland governor's race from Clarus Research has a mixed bag for incumbent Dem Martin O'Malley. He defeats ex-Gov. Bob Ehrlich without too much trouble in a head-to-head, 47-40, and he has decent approvals at 48/40. Still, on the re-elect question, 39% want to see him re-elected and 48% would like someone new. That would potentially present an opportunity for the Maryland GOP -- if they had someone better than Ehrlich to offer, but he's really the best they have. (By contrast, Barb Mikulski, who's also up in 2010, has a 53/36 re-elect.)
• OR-Gov: Moderate Republican state Sen. Frank Morse -- who, without Rep. Greg Walden or state Sen. Jason Atkinson in the race, might actually have been the GOP's best bet -- said no thanks to a gubernatorial race despite some previous interest; he'll run for re-election in 2010. Former Portland Trail Blazers center Chris Dudley has formed an exploratory committee to run in the Republican field, though.
• PA-Gov: Here's an interesting development in the GOP primary field in Pennsylvania: a very conservative state Rep., Sam Rohrer, is scoping out the race and has formed an exploratory committee. Rohrer isn't well-known outside of conservative activist circles and his Berks County base, but against the moderate Rep. Jim Gerlach and the generally-conservative but ill-defined AG Tom Corbett, he seems like he could peel off a decent chunk of votes on the far right.
• VT-Gov: Add two more Democratic names to the lengthening list in the governor's race in Vermont. Former state Senator Matt Dunne officially got in the race, and another state Senator, Peter Shumlin, is planning to announce his bid in several weeks. Dunne lost the Lt. Governor's race in 2006 to current Republican LG Brian Dubie, who is the only declared Republican candidate to replace retiring Gov. Jim Douglas.
• WI-Gov: Rumors keep flying of the Obama administration leaning on ex-Rep. and Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett to run for Wisconsin governor. WH political director Tom Patrick Gaspard met with Barrett. With Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton having recently and surprisingly dropped her bid, Barrett has a free shot if he wants it.
• AZ-03: Dems seem close to pinning down a candidate to run against Rep. John Shadegg in the Phoenix-based 3rd. Lawyer, businessman, would-be-novelist, and former Gary Hart staffer Jon Hulburd is prepping for the race.
• FL-05: The blood is already flowing down Republican streets in the wake of the NY-23 debacle, even a thousand miles away. Rep. Ginny Brown-Waite, hardly the first name that comes to mind when you think of moderate Republicans (although she is a Main Street member), is now being challenged by a political newcomer in the GOP primary, Jason Sager. One of Sager's key talking points is Brown-Waite's support of Dede Scozzafava, on whose behalf Brown-Waite campaigned last week. And more generally, RNC chair Michael Steele (who one week ago was supporting Scozzafava) is flexing his muscles, telling moderates to "walk a little bit carefully" on health care or "we'll come after you."
• FL-08: The NRCC has found a couple willing patsies to go up against Rep. Alan Grayson, whom they've been interviewing this week. The two contenders are businessman Bruce O'Donoghue (who owns a traffic-signal business... odd, but I guess somebody has to make them) and first-term state Rep. Eric Eisnaugle. (Carpetbagging real estate developer Armando Gutierrez Jr., radio talk show host Todd Long, who nearly beat then-Rep. Ric Keller in last year's GOP primary, and three anonymous teabaggers are all in the race, but clearly not striking the NRCC's fancy.) Attorney Will McBride (whose name you might remember from 2006, when he ran in the GOP primary against Katherine Harris) also talked with the NRCC this week, but just pulled his name from contention today.
• MN-01: Another potential challenger to Rep. Tim Walz popped up: former state Rep. Allen Quist. Quist, who ran in gubernatorial primaries twice in the 1990s, is from the state party's right wing and is a key Michele Bachmann ally (his wife used to Bachmann's district director). Republican Lt. Gov. Carol Molnau has also been interested in the race.
• MS-01: After all that work to clear the path for state Sen. Alan Nunnelee in the GOP primary in the 1st, the Republicans may still see a contested primary. Former Eupora mayor Henry Ross is seriously considering the race, and making preparations. This may not result in a pitched rural vs. suburbs battle like the previous primary, though; Eupora (pop. 2,400) is near the district's southern end, near Columbus. Nunnelee is from the Tupelo area, which is also Democratic Rep. Travis Childers' base.
• NH-02: Katrina Swett has been slow to get into the field in the Democratic primary for the open seat in the 2nd, letting Anne McLane Kuster raise more than $200K unimpeded and secure the EMILY's List endorsement. Swett may be ready to make a move, though, as she's been touting a GQR internal poll giving her a 20-point lead in the primary over Kuster. (The actual polling memo hasn't been released, though, as far as I know.)
• NY-23: Doug Hoffman already has a key House leadership backer for a 2010 race: Indiana's Mike Pence endorsed Hoffman.
• PA-06: Looks like we have a real race in the Dem primary in the 6th. State Sen. Andy Dinniman, one of the biggest fish in the district and someone who had considered running himself, endorsed physician Manan Trivedi instead of presumed frontrunner Doug Pike. One advantage that Dinniman sees is that Trivedi hails from Reading in Berks County, the part of the district where Dems have traditionally been the weakest.
• Turnout: If you're wondering what the crux of what happened on Tuesday is, it boils down to terrible turnout. (And it's pretty clear that higher turnout benefits Democrats, as younger and/or non-white voters who tend to be less likely voters are more likely to vote Democratic.) In Virginia (where the outcome seemed clear long ago), turnout was the lowest in 40 years, including a 10% falloff in key black precincts. And in New Jersey, turnout was also a record low for the state, even though the race was a tossup -- indicating a lack of enthusiasm for either candidate. If you want to dig into exit polls for a post-mortem, the New York Times has them available for New York, New Jersey, and Virginia.
• 2010: The White House (or at least David Axelrod) wants to nationalize the 2010 elections, as a means of fixing the Dems' turnout problems from this week. Expect to see Obama front and center in the run-up to next year's elections.
• Illinois Filings: With Illinois's first-in-the-nation filing deadline for 2010 having passed, as usual, our filings guru Benawu is on the scene with a recap in the diaries; check it out.
Yesterday, John Cornyn declared that the Republican Party establishment is afraid of its base:
"We will not spend money in a contested primary," Sen. John Cornyn, the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, told ABC News in a telephone interview today.
"There's no incentive for us to weigh in," said Cornyn, R-Texas. "We have to look at our resources.... We're not going to throw money into a [primary] race leading up to the election."
But just a year-and-a-half ago, the grownups declared that they were going to take charge. Smarting after special election losses in deep red districts which featured a shabby parade of Republican nominees - Jim Oberweis (IL-14), Woody Jenkins (LA-06), and Greg Davis (MS-01) - John Boehner ordered Tom Cole to jump into the muck:
The NRCC will now wade into competitive GOP primaries when appropriate. This is a significant shift, as Cole's policy has been to stay out of such contests even when the party believes one candidate would clearly be the best general election bet. In Illinois and Louisiana in particular, Republicans suffered because they fielded a poor nominee. The race to replace retiring Rep. Vito Fossella (R) in New York, which could draw several GOP contenders, could be the first high-profile test of the new policy.
I have to laugh for a moment regarding the Fossella succession - that was a shitshow for the ages. But in general, this move actually made some sense. After all, did the Republicans really want to drown their chances with more Randy Grafs?
It turns out the answer now is yes. Sure, Cornyn runs the NRSC, and here we're talking about the NRCC. But no doubt Pete Sessions is running scared, too - after all, it was his NRCC that took serious heat from the teabaggers for backing Scozzafava in NY-23, and obviously that race is what inspired Cornyn's newfound wimpiness. So I'm sure we'll see a reluctance on the part of both campaign committees to meddle in primaries. The Republicans are terrified of their base - and they should be.
One of the nicest things about this particular win is that NY-23, at 13,200 square miles, is the fifth-largest district east of the Mississippi. The four bigger eastern districts are ME-02, MI-01, WI-07 and WI-03, all of which are already held by Democrats. So this is the biggest swath of bright blue we're going to get to paint on this side of the Mizzip. Congrats, Bill Owens!
P.S. This is the sixth special election in a row that Dems have flipped from Republicans. Our streak began at the end of a GOP streak of five straight from 1994 to 2001. (Before that, according to Wikipedia, the longest streak appears to have been the eight seats the GOP flipped in succession from 1976 to 1980.)
Dan Mongiardo (D): 39 (39)
Jack Conway (D): 28 (31)
Other: 18 (17)
Undecided: 16 (14)
(MoE: 4.1%)
Check out those GOP primary numbers. If Rand Paul knocks off Trey Grayson, that really would be quite the coup. The Paulists represent a different, weirder strain of outsider Republicans than do the teabaggers, but I almost wonder if they might make common cause in a race like this. On the other hand, I've gotten the sense that Greyson fits the mold of the tribal conservative, so he ought to satisfy the extremists despite his establishment cred. Despite his millions, Ron Paul's high-water mark in the GOP primaries last year was just 24% (Idaho), so I'm a bit skeptical that Rand's stronger fundraising alone is the reason for his surge - or perhaps this just means the comparison of son to father is imperfect. Either way, I'm eager to hear from folks on the ground in Kentucky. (And I also want to see if other pollsters confirm this movement.)
The Dem primary numbers are a bit frustrating. Despite getting crushed on the fundraising front and having several embarrassing tapes get released, Dan Mongiardo still leads Jack Conway. Not only do I like Conway far better, he performs better against both Republicans (more on that in a moment). Still, there are a lot of votes up for grabs, and the primary isn't until May. What's more, Mongiardo is beating Conway 2-to-1 among self-identified liberals (who make up a fifth of the Dem electorate); given that Conway is largely running to Mongiardo's left, he ought to be able to make serious headway with that group. For his part, Conway just put out an internal poll from the Benenson Strategy Group showing him down just three points.
Jack Conway (D): 44 (43)
Rand Paul (R): 39 (38)
Undecided: 17 (19)
Dan Mongiardo (D): 43 (43)
Rand Paul (R): 43 (41)
Undecided: 15 (16)
(MoE: ±2.4%)
The fact that Mongiardo has slipped all the way back to ten points behind Grayson troubles me, as does the fact that he's tied with Paul. Meanwhile, Conway's numbers have improved a touch. Still, a lot can and probably will change between now and election day. The real news, though, is that Mitch McConnell and his merry band of potentates have a lot to worry about right now.
• CA-Sen: The Carlyfornia Dreaming commenced today, as former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina officially announced her bid for the GOP Senate nomination. In a development that's both DeLightful and DeLovely as the GOP barrels headlong into civil war, though, SC Sen. Jim DeMint endorsed GOP Assemblyman Chuck DeVore in the GOP primary, in his ongoing quest to have a Senate caucus of 30 pure Republicans.
• DE-Sen: Also on the GOP civil war front, the movement/establishment split is even spilling over into Delaware, which most pundits look at as the GOP's closest to a sure thing. Conservative activist Christine O'Donnell, who lost badly to Joe Biden last year, will stay in the GOP field with or without Castle. O'Donnell is sitting on $2K CoH, along with $24K in debts from her previous run.
• IL-Sen: Also on the GOP civil war front, one of Rep. Mark Kirk's minor-league GOP primary opponents -- not Patrick Hughes, but even lower down the food chain: Eric Wallace -- is looking at Doug Hoffman and saying "That could be me!" Wallace is dropping out of the GOP field and planning to run as an independent -- which could conceivably tip the race to Alexi Giannoulias in a close contest. Kirk, sensing trouble brewing on his right flank, is asking for help from an unlikely source (based on his attacks on her inexperience during the 2008 election). He's asking queen teabagger Sarah Palin for her endorsement!
• NH-Sen: Also on the GOP civil war front, wealthy businessman Andrew Binnie made official his run for the GOP nod in New Hampshire's Senate race. Sounds like lots of Granite Staters aren't buying GOP establishment candidate Kelly Ayotte's smoke-and-mirrors campaign.
• OH-Sen: Finally, one item from what passes for the Democratic civil war. DSCC chair Bob Menendez all-but-endorsed Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher in Ohio, by mentioning only him in Ohio when talking about pickup prospects. Fisher faces a primary (for the time being) against underfunded SoS Jennifer Brunner.
• CT-Gov: It looks like Ned Lamont, who beat and then lost to Joe Lieberman in 2006, is going to take a whack at the Connecticut gubernatorial race. Lamont just formed an exploratory committee; he'll face an uphill fight just to get out of the primary, though, against SoS Susan Bysiewicz.
• FL-Gov: So many Kennedys, so little time. Yet another random member of the Kennedy clan is considering a quixotic run for office; this time it's Maria Shriver's brother Anthony Shriver (founder of a disabilities-related nonprofit), considering a race in the Democratic gubernatorial primary (which Alex Sink already seems to have locked down).
• NY-Gov: If there's any doubt that AG Andrew Cuomo is gearing up for a gubernatorial run next year, Cuomo will be holding a big fundraiser in Washington in several weeks, hosted by DC power couple Tony and Heather Podesta.
• CO-04: While state House minority whip Cory Gardner seemed to have impeccable conservative bona fides (running against freshman Dem Rep. Betsy Markey), there's some new information that calls that into question: it turns out in 1998 he was an active volunteer for Democrat Susan Kirkpatrick, who ran against then-Rep. Bob Schaffer in the 4th. (He even gave the seconding nominating speech for her at the Dem convention in the 4th.) In his defense, Gardner claims he was raised a Democrat, but became a Republican convert in college -- but he graduated from college in 1997. Looks like the teabaggers have one more insufficiently pure specimen to add to their hunting list.
• FL-08: The netroots love them some Alan Grayson. Nov. 2's online moneybomb event netted the Florida rabblerouser over $500,000, from over 13,000 contributions averaging $40 each. (The GOP also has an answer site up -- "mycongressmanisnuts.com," a nice third-grade response to "congressmanwithguts.com", as apparently "poopyhead.com" was already taken -- which so far has brought in $4,000.)
• FL-19: Charlie Crist has set a special election date for the election to replace resigning Rep. Robert Wexler (although there doesn't seem to be much drama here in this dark-blue district, as the wheels seem to be greased for state Sen. Ted Deutch). The primary will be Feb. 2, and the general will be April 6.
• KS-04: Republican state Sen. Susan Wagle was considered on the short list for the open seat being left behind by Rep. Todd Tiahrt, but yesterday she confirmed that she won't run for it next year.
• NY-23: The gift that keeps giving. Doug Hoffman is reportedly already sounding interested, via Twitter, in running again in the 23rd. (No clue as to what ballot lines he'd seek to run on.)
• PA-19: Here's a surprise: long-time Republican Rep. Todd Platts may be looking for an exit strategy. He's applying to become the Comptroller General, an appointed position at the top of the government's nonpartisan Government Accountability Office. Platts has been safe so far in his York-based R+12 district, but as a Main Street Republican, he's rather out-of-whack with his red turf and may suddenly not be relishing the thought of having teabaggers using him for target practice in 2010.
• NYC-Mayor: Well, somebody at the White House is feeling defensive over the decision not to get involved in the surprisingly-close mayoral race. When Rep. Anthony Weiner (who'd considered running) asked maybe if Obama should have helped out, an anonymous leaker snarled "Maybe Anthony Weiner should have manned-up and run against Michael Bloomberg."
• NRSC: Having gotten the message from the rabid teabagging hordes, NRSC head John Cornyn is announcing that the NRSC won't be spending money in any Republican primaries next year. The NRSC has endorsed in four primaries so far (Florida, Illinois, Missouri, and Pennsylvania), but it's sounding like they may not endorse in any more, either... Cornyn admits "Endorsements, frankly, are overrated. They can to some extent be a negative." Guess who is coming to play in GOP Senate primaries, though? That's right, the Club for Growth, who are now threatening involvement in Illinois and Connecticut, saying that the best Mark Kirk and newly-converted teabag-carrier Rob Simmons can hope for is to be "left alone."
• NRCC: Pete Sessions Deathwatch, Vol. 2? All over the punditosphere today are proclamations of the NRCC head as one of yesterday's top "losers," as the NRCC's special election losing streak had two more notches added to it. George Stephanopolous makes the case that Sessions actually managed to lose NY-23 twice, once with Scozzafava over the long haul, then over the weekend again with Hoffman.
On a day when upstart ultra-conservative challengers to the Republican establishment are feeling emboldened, Utah AG Mark Shurtleff (one prominent member of that group) is instead suspending his campaign against incumbent Republican Senator Bob Bennett:
Mark Shurtleff said he will continue to serve as Utah attorney general while he deals with his daughter's mental health problems. He said his daughter has been placed in a treatment center.
"Today, I am announcing the suspension of my campaign for the U.S. Senate," Shurtleff wrote in an e-mail to reporters. "This announcement comes with sorrow because I do want to serve my country, and I do believe both political parties have put this nation in grave danger by spending so foolishly that our children and grandchildren will have a difficult time recovering."
Our best wishes to Shurtleff. We'll have to wait and see what the long-term effect of this is... Shurtleff was the top contender against Bennett. Does Bennett skate to re-election? Does one of his lesser, even more fringe-right opponents (like Tim Bridgewater or known gnome-hater Cherilyn Eagar) grab Shurtleff's support? Or does another prominent figure (like freshman Rep. Jason Chaffetz, who's been eyeing the race) get in now?
New York: In NY-23, we lost, apparently because the conservatives won, because in their brave new world winning no longer means earning more votes than the other candidates, but rather defeating the candidate that will vote with you most of the time in order to pave the way for the candidate who would theoretically vote with you all the time but has no chance of getting elected in your swing district. I quake in fear of next November, when conservatives will enjoy the mightiest of all glorious historic victories, with the crushing general election losses of Marco Rubio, Chuck DeVore, Rand Paul, Ovide Lamontagne, Sharron Angle, Christine O'Donnell, Peter Schiff, Chuck Purgason, Ken Buck, and Patrick Hughes, thus purifying the soil for decades to come.
Uh, more specifically, in NY-23, Bill Owens (D) defeated Doug Hoffman (C) and Dede Scozzafava (R), 49-45-6, with about a 6,000 vote margin (out of 131,000) separating Owens and Hoffman.
Elsewhere in New York, two powerful incumbents got scares. New York City's I/R mayor Michael Bloomberg beat Democratic comptroller William Thompson by a much narrower-than-expected margin: 51-46. And Democratic Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi is barely leading Republican Ed Mangano, 48-48 (with a 237-vote margin, which may change as absentees are counted). Republicans picked up two open New York City council seats in Queens (including the one vacated by new comptroller John Liu), bringing the Democrats' control of that body down to a perilous 46-5.
New Jersey: Republican former US Attorney Chris Christie defeated Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine in the Republicans' big score of the night, beating Corzine and independent Chris Daggett 49-44-6. The big story here may be the unexpected collapse in Daggett's numbers (he had been polling near 20% several weeks ago); I'd guess that a swath of moderate but fervently anti-Corzine voters realized that they were planning to waste their votes on a spoiler (Daggett) and in the end held their noses and voted for Christie. The other big story: the robo-pollsters (PPP, SurveyUSA) not only getting the result right but coming close on the spread, while some of the more traditional pollsters saw a Corzine victory. Christie's amply-cut jacket didn't have much in the way of coattails, though: Republicans picked up a total of only one seat in the Assembly, with Domenick DiCicco poised to pick up an open seat in Gloucester County in Philly's suburbs, leaving Dems in control of the chamber, 47-33.
Virginia: Here's where the Democrats really stunk it up, although the handwriting on the wall could be clearly seen from months away. In the gubernatorial race, Republican Bob McDonnell defeated Creigh Deeds by a substantial margin, 59-41. Further down the ticket, Republican Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling was re-elected over Jody Wagner, 56-44, and Republican Ken Cuccinelli won the AG's race over Steve Shannon, 58-42. Democrats also took some damage in the House of Delegates, although they seemed to stave off total wipeout: Republicans netted five seats, to move the total from 53 (and 2 GOP-caucusing indies)-45 (with 2 formerly Dem vacancies) to 58 (plus the 2 indies)-39 (with one Dem incumbent-held seat, the 21st, going to recount).
Maine: In what seemed to be the night's biggest heartbreak for many in the netroots, Question 1, a vote to repeal gay marriage, passed by a 53-47 margin. Nevertheless, Mainers defeated an anti-tax initiative (Question 4, 40-60) and expanded medical marijuana access (Question 5, 59-41).
Washington: In the nation's other corner, Referendum 71, a vote to approve legislation creating "marriage in all but name" expanded domestic partnerships, is passing 51-49. (Assuming it passes, this would be, by my reckoning, the first time gay rights have been expanded through statewide vote; since King County has reported disproportionately few of the state's ballots, that margin is likely to grow.) Washington also rejected anti-tax I-1033, 44-56, and King County elected Dow Constantine as County Executive by a comfortable 57-43 over Susan Hutchison (in the first time this has been run as a nonpartisan race -- unfortunately for Hutchison, somewhere in the last few weeks her Republican cover got blown). The Seattle mayor's race will probably be the last race in the country to get resolved: with less than half reporting, anti-establishment progressive Mike McGinn leads establishment progressive Joe Mallahan 50-49.
California: In the night's other House election, Democratic Lt. Gov. John Garamendi defeated Republican attorney David Harmer in CA-10, 53-43 (with the balance going to Green and Peace & Freedom candidates). That's a bit underwhelming in a district where Barack Obama won 65-33, but in a low-turnout special, it's not remarkable.
North Carolina: Charlotte got only its second African-American mayor and its first Democratic mayor in 22 years, as 38-year-old Anthony Foxx beat the polls en route to a 51-49 over Republican Andy Lassiter. Democrats also now have an 8-3 edge on the city council. College town Chapel Hill now has an openly gay mayor: Mark Kleinschmidt, who narrowly defeated conservative Matt Czajkowski, 49-47.
Ohio: Somehow I can't see Cleveland becoming the next Las Vegas (maybe $pringfield, Ohio will), but Ohio voters just opted to legalize casino gambling in Issue 3, 53-47.
Pennsylvania: Republicans picked up a seat on the state Supreme Court; Jane Orie Melvin defeated Democrat Jack Panella 53-47. The GOP now controls the court 4-3, which has bad implications for state legislative redistricting next year.
Michigan: Another Dem screw-up that may bury the prospect of a pro-Democratic gerrymander in Michigan next year is a loss in the one hotly contested state Senate seat anywhere last night. In SD-19, Republican Mike Nofs won 61-34, picking up a seat formerly held by Democratic now-Rep. Mark Schauer. Republicans now control the Senate 22-16 (all seats are up in 2010, meaning Dems now need to flip four for control -- of course, they'd also need to hold the gubernatorial race, which may not happen either). In Detroit, incumbent Dave Bing held on to win the mayor's race, 58-42.
Georgia: We're headed to a runoff in Atlanta, where city councilor Mary Norwood and state Senator Kasim Reed finished 1 and 2, with 46% and 36% respectively. Reed may be able to pull it out, though, if he consolidates African-American votes in the general (the 3rd place finisher, Lisa Borders with 14%, is also African-American). The most interesting legislative race seems to be the previously Dem-held HD-141, where it's unclear whether Dem Darrell Black or GOPer Angela Gheesling-McCommon (each of whom got 23%, although Black has a 16-vote edge) will face off against independent Rusty Kidd (who got 44%) in the runoff.
Got any other races you want to share results from, or want to talk about? Let us know in the comments!
Team SSP is calling it a night, but we'll put up one last open thread for all you night owls and early-risers. Feel free free to have at it in the comments, either discussing results from your favorite downballot race that we failed to notice tonight, or to engage in that time-honored swingnut pastime of telling us What It All Means.
2:50PM: Well, at some point in the last half hour or so, CA-10 got called in favor of John Garamendi. With not much else left to talk about, we'll wrap it up here. A disappointing night on the balance, although certainly with its surprising bright spots (some of which are also hilarious and teabagger-enraging, like NY-23).
2:07AM: You're probably out there thinking, "Hey, you promised us results on the House race in Washington's LD-16!" Unfortunately, the GOP picked that one up. At about R+16 (centered on Walla Walla in eastern Washington), it was by far the reddest seat held by a Dem in the state legislature; long-time Dem Bill Grant died earlier in the year, but his daughter Laura Grant was unable to hold it against GOPer Terry Nealey, 58-42. Dems still are in firm control of the state House, 61-37.
1:57AM: If you're wondering what happened in all those legislative special elections in Georgia, TheUnknown285 tells you all about it in the diaries.
1:45AM: Assorted good news and bad news. The good news is that Tom Suozzi finally pulled it out in Nassau County, winning by 200-odd votes. The bad news is that the Dems totally dropped the ball in Michigan on that state Senate seat (SD-19, the one that Mark Schauer vacated). GOPer Mike Nofs picked it up easily, 61-34. That boosts the GOP's edge to 22-16 in the chamber, making it that much harder to flip come 2010 (a key target for redistricting purposes). Also in Michigan, Detroit mayor Dave Bing survived his re-election, although maybe by a closer margin than anticipated (58-42 against Tom Barrow). With Kevin Johnson ensconced in Sacramento, hopefully soon we can field a starting five of NBA guards turned big-city mayors. Can we get Walt Frazier to run for NYC mayor next time?
1:35AM: They're taking their sweet time in CA-10. Not that it matters. With 51% reporting, it's still Garamendi 55, Harmer 40.
1:29AM: Couple other odds and ends from Pennsylvania. Wunderkind Pittsburgh mayor Luke Ravenstahl won re-election without much trouble, getting 55% of the vote against two challengers, including Franco Harris (son of the similarly-named Steelers legend), running as an indie, who pulled in 15%. And in Harrisburg, PA, the Democrat, Linda Thompson won a contested race, 55-45.
1:21AM: The AP now seems to be calling the race in Maine, for the side of evil. The numbers still are at 87% reporting, with it passing 53-47. On the plus side, it's shaping up to be a good night for pot -- Maine's Question 4, which expands medical marijuana (including state dispensaries), passed 59-41. Maine's own anti-tax TABOR-style initiative also went down to defeat, 60-40. So: Maine likes pot and taxes. Gays and lesbians, not so much.
1:09AM: Still bad news in Maine; with 86% reporting, the spread grew a tiny bit more on Question 1. "Yes" (i.e. against gay marriage) now leads 53-47.
1:06AM: This definitely calls for a ganja break. The tiny Colorado town of Breckinridge just, via initiative, legalized the possession of up to one ounce of marijuana, plus paraphernalia. 72% voted yes.
12:57AM: There's one more barnburner that wasn't on anybody's radar screen: Tom Suozzi, the Democratic Nassau County Exec (1.5 million people on Lon Gisland), is barely winning reelection. He's up 48-48, with a 400-vote margin, with 99% reporting (only 10 precincts left). If he wins, he'll owe his survival to a Constitution Party candidate sucking up votes on the right. Assuming he squeaks through (and that depends on where those last 10 precincts are... hopefully not Massapequa) this may dim his luster a bit; he was seeming likely to run for AG assuming Cuomo vacated to run for Gov.
12:45AM: Here's a hot mayor's race I don't think we've mentioned yet. Bill Foster, the more conservative option, beat Kathleen Ford 52-47 in St. Petersburg, Florida.
12:38AM: We're headed to a runoff in Houston; that was expected. City controller Annise Parker leads at 31%, and she'll face off against former city attorney Gene Locke, who got 26%.
12:33AM: You know, Chris Christie didn't seem to have much in the way of coattails. It looks like the GOP only netted one Assembly seat in New Jersey. McDonnell did a little more damage in Virginia, pulling along the LG and AG (Bolling and Kooky Cuccinelli); the net GOP gain in Virginia was 5, which seems to move the GOP's advantage in the House of Delegates to 60 (including 2 R-leaning indies) to 40. (That might be off by 1, someone correct me if I'm wrong.) (UPDATE at 1AM: NLS says it's 60-39, with one race still not called.)
12:20AM: Good news from Washington, although R-71 is still closer than I'd like. R-71 is being approved (contra the Maine initiative, 'yes' is the vote for tolerance here), 52-48. I-1033 (a TABOR-style anti-tax initiative from unstoppable initiative huckster Tim Eyman) is getting its butt kicked, 44-56. And King County Executive is staying in Democratic hands, as Dow Constantine is beating quasi-Republican Susan Hutchison 57-43. Seattle mayor, though, is paper-thin: contrary to polls, Mike McGinn is leading (he probably has lots of cellphone-only voters), but only 50-49.
12:18AM: Let's kick it west coast. In CA-10, we're only up to 29% reporting, and the numbers haven't changed much. Garamendi leads Harmer 56-40. Looks like Garamendi got most of the last minute deciders (based on that 50-40 poll). So that's two nice upgrades in the House (from McHugh to Owens, and from Tauscher to Garamendi).
12:16AM: Of course, it's all ACORN's fault.
12:15AM: More good news from the comments: Hoffman has apparently conceded in the 23rd. Thus sparing us the agony of a NY-20 style drawn-out recount process, and we won't have to wonder about those malfunctioning St. Lawrence County machines. Cue the sound of a million wingnut heads 'sploding.
12:07AM: Bad news from the comments: the Pennsylvania Supreme Court race has been called for the Republican (Jane Orie Melvin). This looks like it'll hand the advantage in state legislative redistricting to the GOP for 2010.
12:05AM: Thanks to DavidNYC for handling all the hard stuff; I'll be working the late shift and the west coast stories. Let's start the new thread with some good news. Reportedly Fox has called NY-23 for Bill Owens. Who would have ever thunk that we could pick up the 23rd at the same time as we're losing NJ-Gov?
12:05AM: Please join us in the new thread.
11:49PM: Mark Kleinschmidt narrowly beat Matt Czajkowski for the mayoral job in Chapel Hill, NC.
11:46PM: Oh, yeah, so the NYC mayoral race was officially called for Bloombo, but it wound up being close - just five points. A lot of people are going to have a lot of 'splainin' to do tomorrow.
11:44PM: 85% tallied and Owens still leads 49-45 - about 4,200 votes.
11:41PM: Democrat Anthony Foxx looks to have won the Charlotte mayor's race by a little more than 3,000 votes. (All precincts are in.)
11:39PM: Out in California's 10th CD, John Garamendi is up 56-40 with 22% in.
11:35PM: Taegan Goddard says that there are 10K absentees in NY-23.
11:31PM: Good guys with a narrow lead on Washington's Ref. 71, 52-48. But remember, it can take a long time (even weeks) to count the vote in Washington.
11:28PM: Bad guys pull ahead, 51.6 to 48.4 in Maine.
11:27PM: Also in the NYC burbs, incumbent Dem Andy Spano (Westchester Co. Exec.) is getting destroyed, 58-42. Did anyone see that coming? Down in Hotlanta, Norwood is holding a lead at 45, with Reed at 37. This one looks headed to a run-off.
11:23PM: Ambitious Nassau County (Long Island) Executive Tom Suozzi is leading his Republican challenger by just 1% with half the vote counted. Suozzi would probably run for AG if Cuomo runs for governor - wonder if this might put a crimp in his plans.
11:22PM: Reid Wilson of The Hill: "Several GOP sources telling me they expect Bill Owens (D) to win NY23."
11:00PM: We are down 52-48 in that PA Sup. Ct. race - 83% reporting. Not good.
10:57PM: A bright ray of sunshine? Owens leading 49-46 with two thirds in.
10:44PM: Dave Weigel says: "WHOA - Hoffman splitting Madison County, where he was leading 2-1 in Siena Poll. Getting ready to say 'Congressman Bill Owens.'" You can get county results here.
10:33PM: The good guys have won in Kalamazoo.
10:43: Time for some more thread.
10:25PM: Shades of Florida 2000: Apparently, NBC has retracted its call on NYC-Mayor, but the NYT is still loud-n-proud. Bloombo's lead has widended a bit, with three-quarters of the vote now reporting. But barring some late, wild changes, this is going to be a major story - how all the polls were so wildly wrong (and so many of them, too!), and how establishment Democrats failed to support one of their own.
10:21PM: Dems win a special election in Alabama, taking HD-65 by a 53-47 margin, which was quite a bit closer than expected.
10:17PM: Up in Maine, gay marraige is holding on by 51-49 with 22% in.
10:16PM: With 27% in, Bill Owens is up 51-44-5.
10:13PM: The AP is calling NJ-Gov for Chris Christie.
10:11PM: Man. Bill Thompson is only 0.5% back with over half the vote recorded. What is going on here?
10:07PM: As I'd suspected, Corzine is overperforming a bit in the north and Christie is overperforming in the south. (Maybe those LG picks actually made a difference, too.) Corzine is 49/48 in Bergen (should be 42/47 according to baselines), 68/27 in Essex (should be 64/25), 68/27 in Hudson (should be 61/28), and 52/43 in Passaic (should be 48/41). But Christie is cleaning up down the shore: 31/62 in Monmouth (should be 35/53), 28/66 in Ocean (should be 28/60), and unfortunately, in blue Camden County, where it's 52/42 (should be 55/33). This balances out to a very close race, but it looks like it's shading toward Christie.
10:05PM: In NY-23, Owens is still leading even at 15% reporting. He's at 51%, with Hoffman at 45 and Dede at 5.
9:47PM: NYT calls the NYC mayoral race for Bloombo. Jesus. More than half my adult life has been spent under Republican mayors in NYC, and that ratio is about to get worse. The Times must really know something, though - 17% in and Bloombo leads by little more than 1%.
9:39PM: With 158 of 169 precincts reporting, Dem Anthony Foxx has a 52-48 lead in the Charlotte mayor's race.
9:35PM: Sorry about the server errors, folks - not a whole lot we can do on our end, I'm afraid. Anyhow, the first few precincts are reporting in NY-23.
9:29PM: Looks like Jon Corzine is underperforming his county baselines just about everywhere. Though it just closed to 49-44-6 Christie with 44% reporting.
9:24PM: Another VA General Assembly Dem incumbent set to bite the dust in HD-83, trailing by 20 points with 82% reporting.
9:22PM: Some results are finally starting to make their way in from the Atlanta mayor's race.
9:20PM: 52-42-6 Christie with 35% in. Ugh.
9:08PM: 50-43-5 Christie, with 29% reporting.
9:02PM: Polls are now closed in NY. In PA, the Dem Supreme Court candidate is up large with 6% in.
8:56PM: 16% of the vote in so far in New Jersey, and Christie is up 54-40. Don't fret, though - most of the counties reporting are expected to go heavily to Christie.
8:55PM: Just 4% in so far in Maine - good guys with 56%.
8:52PM: TheUnknown285 says of GA-HD-141: "There will be a runoff. One of the candidates will be the indy Rusty Kidd. The question is: who will be the other candidate? Democrat Darrell Black and Republican Angela Gheesling-McCommon are separated by sixteen votes with seemingly only canvassing and absentees left."
8:50PM: Johnny LT has a good update on the VA Assembly races. Says Johnny: "So far not looking as bad as it should be for such a large McDonnell victory."
8:38PM: Just a head's up for those planning to burn the midnight oil: We may not get the full results of NY-23 tonight, as several towns in St. Lawrence County are having difficulty with their new voting equipment.
8:33PM: Time for some fresh thread. The AP has results for several states: CA | CT | GA | ME | MI | NJ | NY | OH | PA | VA | WA.
8:37PM: This thread is getting a bit full, so please join us just above in a new thread.
8:31PM: The New York Times has a good New Jersey results page.
8:26PM: Seems that we might have a tally of some early votes in Jersey.
8:19PM: Looks like votes are about to start trickling in in Maine.
8:10PM: So South Carolina had a special election in HD-48 tonight. Results are here, though oddly no totals are displayed on the bottom. Excel says that the Dem is getting destroyed, though, 1,731 to 719.
8:08PM: Stick a fork in Creigh -- all the major media outlets are now calling VA-Gov for McDonnell.
8:00PM: Polls have now closed in a whole bunch of states with key races.
7:55PM: Looks like Virginia Dems are on pace to lose at least one seat in the General Assembly tonight -- take a look at HD-03, where incumbent Democratic Del. Danny Bowling is getting trashed by a 58-42 margin with 71% of the precincts reporting.
7:52PM: We're also trailing badly in the VA Lt. Gov. and AG races. The Dem numbers in those races are pretty similar to Deeds', so I wouldn't expect much divergence even as better precincts come in.
7:41PM: No results yet in Georgia, where the Atlanta mayor's race is hotly contested. Apparently, there have been polling problems.
7:38PM: Polls also just closed in North Carolina, where we have a couple of interesting mayoral races tonight.
7:30PM: Results are trickling in in Virginia, and Creigh Deeds is getting spanked with about 5% of the vote in. (Did you expect anything else?) Of greater interest tonight will be Virginia's Assembly races. Johnny Longtorso has a great, SSP-style ratings chart you can consult.
Here are some sites for returns in some of tonight's key races:
Virginia closes in about half an hour (and so too does our predictions contest!). But feel free to start using this thread for tailgating and chitchat. Got any reliable links for up-to-the-minute results? Let us know in comments, and we'll add them to the list.
