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LA-Gov: Election Results Open Thread

by: James L.

Sat Oct 20, 2007 at 7:58 PM EDT


RESULTS: Louisiana SoS | NoLa.com | Shreveport Times | Baton Rouge Advocate | WWLTV

2:44PM Sun: DCal looks at the numbers and finds that the Dems have held the state House, too.
12:35AM (final update): TXObserver brings us some key state House results.  Looks like the Republicans picked up a few seats and forced run-offs in other Dem-held districts.  Democrats had a 17-seat edge in the state House going into the election.  We'll have to wait a few weeks to see what the complete carnage is.
11:59PM: The lack of a Democratic candidate with a strong appeal in Orleans Parish really helped lift Jindal over the 50% mark.  Check this out: while Mitch Landrieu cleaned up with 90% of the vote here, Democrats Boasso and Campbell combined for a pathetic 28% of the parish's vote, with 382 of 442 precincts reporting.  That's way behind Republican-turned-Indie John Georges' total of 38%, and even behind Jindal's 33%.  Talk about a wipeout.
11:51PM: So here's why I think that Louisiana Secretary of State Jay Dardenne (R) didn't deserve to win re-election tonight: his website sucks.
11:36PM: TXObserver brings us some state Senate races to watch in the comments.  It looks like Mitch Landrieu will win comfortably--he's holding his closest challenger to a 56-32 margin with 82% of the vote in.
11:30PM: KTBS has Jindal at 47% with 3,413 precincts reporting, but he's expected to rack up some big points in his home turf in the NOLA suburbs (he scored 88% of the vote in his re-election bid there last year against two hapless Democrats).  (Update: there seems to be some bad math here, anyway.)
11:23PM: WWLTV's calling the race for Jindal.
11:14PM: With 3,032 of 3,967 precincts reporting, Jindal is sitting tight with 53%.
11:08PM: Highlights from some of the other statewide races -- Mitch Landrieu has 54% of the vote in bid for re-election as Lt. Governor with  2372 precincts reporting.  Democrat James Caldwell and incumbent Attorney General Charles Foti (D) are both slightly edging Republican challenger Royal Alexander.  Looks like a Caldwell-Foti run-off could be in the cards.
10:40PM: 2.641 of 3,967 precincts reporting: Jindal 53%, Boasso 18%
10:33PM: 2,636 of 3,967 precincts reporting: Jindal 56%, Boasso 18%, Georges 14%, Campbell 10% (according to WWLTV).
10:22PM: 1,388 of 3,967 precincts reporting: Jindal 52%; Boasso, 18%.  Landrieu holding at 51%.
10:20PM: 1096 of 3,967 precincts reporting: Jindal 53%, Boasso 18%
10:14PM: From WWLTV New Orleans: "Election analyst Greg Rigamer says things are looking very good for Jindal to get over 50% and win outright."
10:03PM: 787 of 3,967 precincts reporting: 52% Jindal, 19% Boasso.
9:56PM: 470 of 3,967 precincts reporting: Jindal 53%, Boasso 19%.  Landrieu at 51%.
9:47PM: 298 of 3,967 precincts reporting: Jindal 54%, Boasso 18%.  Landrieu at 50%.
9:27PM: 11 of 3,967 precincts reporting: Jindal 60%, Boasso & Campbell at 14% each.  Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu at 46% in the absentee ballot count so far.
9:21PM: What a surprise: some New Orleans voters get screwed at the polls.
9:06PM: 1 of 3,967 precincts reporting: Jindal 63%, Boasso 15%.


It's election day in Louisiana, as voters go to the polls to choose between Bobby Jindal (R), Walter Boasso (D), Foster Campbell (D), John Georges (I), and a slew of also-rans in the race to replace outgoing Gov. Kathleen Blanco.  Polls close at 8pm Central/9pm Eastern.  Turnout has been described as "brisk" and "steady" in the reports that I've seen.   We'll update this thread as results come in.

How well will Jindal do tonight?  Will he avoid the run-off?  Who will place second?  I don't usually like to stick my neck out, but here's my bet, for what it's worth: Jinal 55%; no run-off.

James L. :: LA-Gov: Election Results Open Thread
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Jindal gets 52%.
I'm also going to go out on a limb and guess that John Kennedy is re-elected as Treasurer without a run-off.

there are few too many variables to speculate on this race
aside from jindal will do well. 

there's the fact that voting is taking place on a saturday, possible low turnout due to an off year election, possible high turnout due to an electrified electorate.  a confidant republican electorate that turns out in high numbers/stays home, confidant in jindals victory.  an unenergized democratic electorate that stays home/comes out in high numbers due to fear of gov jindal.  the football game that's a big deal in the state (i don't know anything else about it).  an electorate that's more comfortable with a white guy than a nonwhite guy (sad, i know, but it's a factor). 

there are so many variables in this that speculation is impossible.  speculation on the results however, is not.  i see it like this.

jindal 60%+:elected, bad for dems, will steer state to the republicans.

Jindal 50%-59%: elected, will hurt dems, but not too bad.

Jindal 45-49%: not elected still strongly in his court though.  there are 13 candidates.

jindal 40-45%: not as good as expected, but still a strong candidate.

jindal below 40%: now we have a race!  if this happens for WHATEVER REASON it will seriously deflate his momentum.  going from inevitable to less than 40% would give his opponent just enough momentum to have a chance.  unlikely?  yes.  possible?  yes.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.


prediction
Jindal 45% gets a run-off
Mitch-Wins No-runoff
Senate-Dems keep control GOP gains
House-Dems keep control GOP gains
Campbell gets second

Guess
Jindal 47%
Boasso 18%, goes to runoff

Georges / Campbell get 14% + 12% respectively, rest get 9%.


You're wrong. Some of this is idiotic
Dems lose a seat or two in the House,
McDonald wins senate seat, Riser Wins Ellington's senate seat, Boasso's overwhelmingly Republican seat goes back to Republicans, and Democrats pick up two open south louisiana seats previously held by Democrats who switched to the Republican party, net gain of one seat in the state senate. Empty headed, visionless Mitch goes to a run off with Gary Beard in the LG race. Odom goes to a run off with Mike Strain in the race for sectrary of Agriculture. Buddy Caldwell goes to a runoff with Charles Foti in the AG race. Jindall gets 44%, Boasso goes into the runoff. And I say that's all there is to it for tonight. Time will show how wrong or how right I am.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

With 1% in
Jindal has a 52%-22% lead over Boasso.

It looks like
heavily Republican areas are coming in first. 

[ Parent ]
GOP first
don't they always

Usually
but not always.

[ Parent ]
Damn everyone caring about this election.
The results page won't reload.

any news about legislature races?
n/t

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

Yeah, I wanna know
about state legislative races too.

[ Parent ]
It looks like
Jindal will get about 51%. 

[ Parent ]
We'll see.
I'm wondering how big New Orleans will play.  He's sitting three points over 50%.  New Orleans should hurt him a little more than 3%.  It's too liberal. 

[ Parent ]
Really unsettled...
...especially since many races will go to a run-off.

Here's a D-held district that will go to a run-off: HD24

http://www.shrevepor...


[ Parent ]
I wanna know about other state House districts
Who gains and how many?

[ Parent ]
Me too.
Still looking into it...

[ Parent ]
It'd be a lot easier to tell you...
...if the SoS site wasn't do damn buggy and slow.  Jay Dardenne is clearly out of his league and out of his mind.

[ Parent ]
State Senate
These are probably a little old by now, but this was the most recent update from the SOS website

1st District (Boasso's Seat, Dem Seat) 72% reporting
Ken Odinet (D) 57%
A.G. Crowe (R) 43%

2nd & 3rd District Dems Hold

4th District (Dem seat) 81% reporting
Edwin Murray (D) 67%
Thomas Kennedy (R) 28%

5th District Dems Hold

6th District Reps Hold

7th District (Dem seat) 39% reporting
David Heitmeier (D) 52%
Paul Richard (R) 34%

8th District (Dem seat) 17% reporting
John Alario (D) 60%
John Roberts (R) 40%

9th, 10th, & 11th Districts, Reps Hold

12th District Dems Hold

13th District Reps Hold

14th and 15th Districts Dems Hold

16th District Reps Hold

17th, 18th, 19th, 20th Districts Dems Hold

21st District (Dem seat) 71% reporting
"Butch" Gautreaux (D) 74%
Clayton Diaz (R) 26%

22nd District (Rep seat) 63% reporting
Sydnie Durand (D) 38%
Jeff Landry (R) 35%
Troy Hebert (D) 27%

23rd District Reps hold

24th District Dems hold

25th District (Rep seat) 94% reporting
Gil Pinac (D) 38%
Dan Morrish (R) 34%
Mark Abraham (R) 29%

26th, 27th, 28th, 29th Districts Dems hold

30th District Dem pickup

31st District (Dem seat) 98% reporting
Gerald Long (R) 53%
Thomas Townsend (D) 47%

32nd District (Dem seat) 96% reporting
Neil Riser (R) 48%
Bryant Hammett (D) 43%

33rd District (Rep seat) 90% reporting
Charlie McDonald (D) 54%
"Mike" Walsworth (R) 46%

34th District Dems hold

35th District Reps hold

36th District Dems hold

37th District (Rep seat) 26% reporting
B. L. "Buddy" Shaw (R) 25%
Billy Montgomery (R) 22%
Barrow Peacock (R) 19%
Sheva Sims (D) 18%
"Jay" Murrell (R) 17%

38th District Reps hold

39th District Dems hold


What does the change look like
in the state Senate?  Who netted seats and how many?

[ Parent ]
From the looks of it,
Dem's seats aren't set in stone as holds yet:
1st
4th
7th
8th
31st
32nd

Republican's seats aren't set in stone as holds yet:
22nd
25th
33rd

How many look like takeovers? 
All of the Republicans seats I noted (3)

Democrats (2)
31st
32nd

We might actually gain a seat in the State Senate. 


[ Parent ]
If these results hold
Democrats will trade Districts 31 & 32 for Districts 30 & 33.

There may be two runoffs in Republican seats.

So right now, with runoffs, it's 25 Democrats, 12 Republicans, and two unknowns.

With these results holding, Democrats will need to win the one or two of the runoffs to pick up a seat.  And as of right now, Democrats won't lose any Senate seats.


[ Parent ]
Thats a bright spot
when we desperately need one.

[ Parent ]
State House
It looks like Democrats have only lost one seat so far.

[ Parent ]
Senate Update, 3 Runoffs possibly
From NOTP

1st Too close
4th Dems hold
7th Too close
8th Dems hold
22nd Too close, but a runoff
25th Runoff between Gil Pinac (D) & Dan Morrish (R)
31st Rep pickup

32nd A RUNOFF
Neil Riser (R) 19,019 49.16
Bryant Hammett (D)16,264 42.04

33rd Reps hold
37th Reps hold

Possibly 3 runoffs, 1 Dem seat and 2 Rep seats


[ Parent ]
Grrrrrrr
Ugh, the Republican took the lead in the 1st District on the last precinct.  So, a kind-of GOP pickup, but not really (only a pickup if you count it as a Dem seat with Boasso's switch this year to the Democrats in his run for Governor).

[ Parent ]
Surprisingly close, though.
I thought his seat was supposed to be quite Republican.

[ Parent ]
State House
Again, probably a little old by now.  Forgive me if there are any mistakes

1st Reps hold

2nd, 3rd, and 4th Dems hold

5th & 6th Reps hold

7th (Dem seat) 96% reporting
Richard Burford (R) 33%
Kenny Cox (D) 21%
Hilda Fair Rives (D) 18%
John G. Russell (D) 18%

8th & 9th Reps hold

10th & 11th Dems hold

12th Reps hold

13th Dems hold

14th (Dem seat) 98% reporting
"Buddy" Quinn (D) 42%
"Sam" Little (R) 34%
"Stan" Neathery (R) 24%

15th & 16th Reps hold

17th, 18th, 19th, 20th, 21st and 22nd Dems hold

23rd (Dem seat) 100% reporting
"Rick" Nowlin (R) 35%
Joseph Sampite (D) 33%

24th (Dem seat) 100% reporting
"Frankie" Howard (R) 31%
Mary Ann Wiggins (D) 28%

25th (Dem seat) 100% reporting
Lance Maxwell (R) 41%
"Chris" Roy (D) 35%

26th Dems hold

27th Reps pickup

28th (Dem seat) 100% reporting
Robert Johnson (D) 32%
Kirby Roy (R) 31%

29th Dems hold

30th (Dem seat) 100% reporting
James Armes (D) 49%
"Jack" Causey (R) 38%

31st (Rep seat) 100% reporting
Donald Trahan (R) 50% 7,365
Nancy Landry (O) 50% 7,332

32nd (Dem seat) 100% reporting
Dorothy Sue Hill (D) 46%
James David Cain (R) 41%

33rd Dems pickup

34th Dems hold

35th & 36th Reps hold

37th (Rep seat) 100% reporting
John Guinn (R) 32%
Kyle Reed (D) 30%

38th Dems hold

39th (Dems hold) 100% reporting
Raymond LaLonde (R) 30%
Bobby G. Badon (D) 27%

40th, 41st, & 42nd Dems hold

43rd Reps hold

44th Dems hold

45th Independent holds

46th Dems hold

47th Rep pickup

48th, 49th, & 50th Dems hold

51st (Dem seat) 65% reporting
Carla Dartez (D) 46%
"Joe" Harrison (R) 39%

52nd Reps hold

53rd Dems hold

54th (Rep seat) 100% reporting
Mitchell Theriot (R) 37%
Jerry Gisclair (D) 34%

55th & 56th Dems hold

57th (Dem seat) 100% reporting
Nickie Monica (R) 29%
"Geri" Broussard Baloney (D) 17%
Randal L. Gaines (D) 17%
Natalie Tatje (D) 16%

58th Dems hold

59th Reps hold

60th & 61st Dems hold

62nd Reps hold

63rd Dems hold

64th, 65th, & 66th Reps hold

67th Dems hold

68th, 69th, 70th, & 71st Reps hold

72nd Dems hold

73rd & 74th Reps hold

75th Dems hold

76th, 77th, 78th, 79th, 80th, 81st, 82nd Reps hold

83rd Dems hold

84th Reps pickup

85th Reps hold

86th Reps hold

87th Dems hold

88th, 89th, & 90th Reps hold

91st Dems hold

92nd Rep pickup

93rd Dems hold

94th (Rep seat) 88% reporting
"Nick" Lorusso (R) 49%
Deborah Langhoff (D) 28%

95th, 96th, 97th, 98th, 99th, 100th, 101st, & 102nd Dems hold

103rd (Dem seat) 100% reporting
Reed Henderson (D) 22%
Mark Madary (D) 19%
"Mike" Bayham (R) 18%
Clay Cosse (R) 18%

104th & 105th Reps hold


I guess Dems
lose three in the state House.  Not bad at all considering the tailwind against them. 

[ Parent ]
Not out of the woods yet.
Can't say for sure how some of these run-offs will end.

[ Parent ]
Thats true, but
in most of the Dem held seats going to runoffs, the Democratic vote added up to much more than the Republican vote. 

[ Parent ]
Hope it's that simple.
But that's not always the case, especially in funky Louisiana politics.  In the 2003 election, all the Democrats running for Governor got something in the neighborhood of 58%+ combined during the first round of voting -- but only won by a 52-48 margin against Jindal weeks later.

Hope you're right, though.


[ Parent ]
How many runoffs are there
in House seats?  About five or six?

[ Parent ]
Jindal Elected Governor
From the New Orleans Time Picayune

http://www.nola.com/


Ok I just ran the numbers
I came up with the following

Senate Totals (20 needed for Majority, Democrats had 24 according to DLCC):
Democrats - 23
Republican - 13
Undecided (Run Offs) - 3

House Totals (53 needed for Majority, Democrats had 62 according to DLCC):
Democrats - 46
Republicans - 42
Independent - 1 (District 45)
Undecided (Run Offs) - 15*

*district 55 is a democrat vs. someone of the N party
*Of the run offs, if you wanted to declare a winner by saying which party got over 50%, Democrats won 12 of 15.

And yes, I missed a house seat somewhere. I'll figure it out later.

This is not too bad. It looks like we are gonna hold both legislatures and the Attorney General in the run-off. Dunno how the Agriculture Secretary will turn out. If all we lost was the Governor's office and just a narrower majority in the legislature, I think we did pretty good. Mary Landrieu may have a chance afterall.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


State Leg Results Summary
State House:
http://www.nola.com/...

(The results from the New Orleans Times Picayune match with the results on the Sec of State Web Site (which is impossible to use for getting all results in one place -- as far as I can tell -- since you have to go Parish by Parish).

54 Democrats elected (or in runoffs with other Democrats)
38 Republicans elected (or in runoffs with other Republicans)
1 Independent elected
11 Runoffs between a Democrat and Republican
1 Runoff between a Democrat and an Independent

The Democrats had a larger total share of the vote in 8 of the 12 seats with runoffs.

Following is the Dem share of the vote for the 12 runoff seats (with the remaining share Republican unless noted):

District 7:  56%
District 14: 41%
District 23: 65%
District 24: 69%
District 25: 59%
District 30: 49%
District 32: 54%D, 41%R, 5% Ind
District 37: 53%
District 51: 64%
District 55: 59%D, 41% Ind
District 94: 29%, 69%R, 2% Ind
District 103: 31%D, 55%R, 14% Ind

Before the election (according to the National Conference of State Legislatures web site: http://www.ncsl.org/...), the breakdown was 63D, 41R, I Ind.  If Dems win the runoffs where they have a larger share of the primary vote, they will end up with 62 seats, a net loss of 1 seat.

State Senate:

http://www.nola.com/...

21 Democrats elected (or in runoffs with other Democrats)
13 Republicans elected (or in runoffs with other Republicans)
4 Runoffs between a Democrat and Republican

As TXObserver Repored, Republicans came back and won District 1.  They also ended up winning in District 33.

Dem share of the vote in the 4 runoff races:

District 7:  59%
District 22: 65%
District 25: 38%
District 32: 51%

Before the election, the breakdown was 25D, 14R.  If Dems win 3 of the 4 runoffs, they will end up with 24 seats, a net loss of 1 seat.

But, regardless of the runoff results, Demcorats have retained control of both the State House and State Senate.


Wikipedia...
...had the House at 60D, 43R, 1 Indie, and 1 vacancy before the election:
http://en.wikipedia....

Seems possible... I know that the Dems lost an open seat special election or two earlier in the year.


[ Parent ]
The Wikipedia #s are almost certainly more up to date
I think the NCSL info was updated at the end of the 2006 election cycle.

[ Parent ]
Lets look at runoff races
and the 2004 Bush %, 2003 Blanco % and 2002 Landrieu %
  GOP/Dem

HD7: 2004:  62/38
  2003:  53/47
  2002:  52/48

HD14:2004:  64/35
  2003:  47/53  Likely Dem loss
  2002:  57/43

HD23:2004:  55/43
  2003:  43/57
  2002:  46/54

HD24:2004:  67/32
  2003:  46/54
  2002:  53/47

HD25:2004:  71/28
  2003:  49/51
  2002:  59/41

HD30:2004:  65/34
  2003:  44/56
  2003:  50/50

HD32:2004:  65/34
  2003:  37/63
  2002:  49/51

HD37:2004:  61/37
  2003:  42/58  Possible Dem pickup
  2002:  46/54

HD51:2004:  55/44
  2003:  39/61
  2002:  42/58

HD55:2004:  61/37
  2003:  51/49
  2002:  48/52

HD94:2004:  55/44
  2003:  64/36
  2002:  51/49

HD103:2004:  56/43  Possible Dem loss.  Surprising since
  2003:  50/50  John Kerry did relatively well here for
  Louisiana.
  2002:  46/54

It looks like a Dem loss of one in the House runoffs.  Im still not sure how many Dems lost last night in the House.

Senate: 

  2004: Bush/Kerry%
  2003: Jindal/Blanco%
  2002: Terrell/Landrieu%

SD7:  2004:  39/60
  2003:  46/54
  2002:  35/65

SD22:  2004:  57/42
  2003: 38/62  Probably Dem pickup
  2002: 51/49

SD25:  2004:  65/34
  2003: 47/53
  2002: 52/48

SD32:  2004:  71/28
  2003: 40/60  Possible Republican pickup
  2002: 57/43

It looks like no net change in the Senate runoffs, but I don't know how many Dems lost last night. 


[ Parent ]
Interesting info -- where did you find this data?
And, do you know of resources for non-Presidential results (Governor, Senator) by Congressional (or state legislative) district in other states?  It is not very easy to find.

[ Parent ]
California's SoS site
has info on presidential, senatorial, and governor results by county and by every district (Congress, Senate, Assembly).

http://sos.ca.gov/el...

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
State House Control Not Yet Decided
According to an article in today's New Orleans Times Picayune, the State House situation is as follows:

46 Democrats elected or runoffs between Democrats
41 Republicans elected or runoffs between Republicans
1  Independent elected
16 Runoffs between a Democrat and a Republican
1  Runoff between a Democrat and an Independent

http://www.nola.com/...

So (contrary to my previous post), Democrats have not won control of the State House yet.  But, Democrats held 13 of the 17 runoff seats before the election, which is a positive sign.

For the State Senate, there are:
22 Democrats
13 Republicans
4 Runoffs



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