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NV-02: It's a Ballot Royale

by: James L.

Mon May 02, 2011 at 2:23 PM EDT


Great news for us, straight from Jon Ralston:

.@rossjmiller "law is very clear....no primary election...how are candidates picked, by people or small group... Open to all candidates."

What are the chances that Sharron Angle can resist this juicy opportunity? (Update: Another notable tidbit -- there will be no filing fee. Also, Ralston reports that Dem state Treasurer Kate Marshall will run in the special.)

UPDATE (David): More here. The GOP unsurprisingly says it may sue. Miller's formal legal opinion is here (PDF).
James L. :: NV-02: It's a Ballot Royale
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NV-02: It's a Ballot Royale | 53 comments
the chances are equal
  that she will run and that she will lose...

Both are nearly sure things...

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

If we get Congresswoman Kate Marshall out of this
I'm sending Sharon Angle a personalized thank-you note.
none
angle is already fundraising
Will Dems consolidate around Marshall
Gosh i hope so.  How is Marshall's replacement chosen, another free-for-all special election later this year?
Gotta think Harry Reid will pull out all the stops
To make it so.
[ Parent ]
She will be the unitary Dem
So long as Jill Derby stays out (the only other Dem who could run and garner a good showing).

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Derby was very recently the chair of the NVDP
I imagine she is cozy enough with the establishment that if they ask her to stay out, she will oblige.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Who else do they have?
Jill Derby? I mean, come on.
[ Parent ]
She got 45% of the vote in 2006 against Heller.
That's nothing to sneeze at.  However, there must be only 1 Dem running for this to work out.  If Marhsall is running, Derby should stay out.  

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
That's nothing to sneeze at
but that was also 2006. Kate Marshall is almost assuredly a better candidate.
[ Parent ]
I'm worried about the rich guy
Currently running against Berkley.  If he feels like he can't win there, he might try for this race.
[ Parent ]
Georgiou lives in Las Vegas though
I can't see him playing well in the Reno/Washoe area.  

24, SSP Gay Caucus Policy Committee Chair, Western Democrat; CO-05 (home), CA-14 (law school)
[ Parent ]
He doesn't have to play well though
If he plops in and siphons votes away from Marshall it makes the non-Angle GOP establishment choice better able to win.  If its just Angle, Marshall and GOP-establichment candidate A, its great for Dems, if another Dem comes in I get slighlty more concerned.
[ Parent ]
Understandable
But I see him as more of a Chachas-style candidate, who plopped a bunch of money into a multi-way race and didn't get out of the low single digits. If it's Marshall/Georgiou v. Angle/Krolicki/another, I think Marshall still wins that race, even if the Dem ceiling is 45%.


24, SSP Gay Caucus Policy Committee Chair, Western Democrat; CO-05 (home), CA-14 (law school)
[ Parent ]
John Charminchachachas only spent about 600 grand of his own money
and still got about 4% of the vote. If Georgiou is crazy enough to really get the gas flowing a la Jack Davis, he could really mess this up for us. But hopefully the fact that he's in Vegas will make him go for NV-01 if he decides he wants to be in Congress.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
With all of the musical chairs in NV
I'm sure there's a job for him somewhere.  Not State treasurer (if Marshall wins) but something within the NV Democratic party so he can build himself up to be a more formidable and establishment candidate down-the-road.  

He doesn't look that old, and if Haerry Reid retires in 2016 there'd be 1,000 Dems running for his seat and a lot of openings down the line for georgiou to run for.

[ Parent ]
Agreed
There will be 2 open seats in the Vegas area next year. If he wants to run for Congress he has plenty of opportunity to do in in Vegas in 2010.

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[ Parent ]
Oh boy
Maybe the tide is turning on a few fronts.
Results for 2006 & 2008
these were the two Heller vs. Derby campaigns. Dems fielded only minor candidates in 2010 and prior to 2006.

Results for 2006 (open seat):

Jill Derby (D) 44.94%
Dean Heller (R) 50.35%
James Kroshus (IAP) 2.34%
Daniel Rosen (I) 2.37%

Results for 2008:

Jill Derby (D) 41.44%
Dean Heller (R) 51.82%
John Everhart (I) 3.39%
Sean Patrick Morse (Lib) 1.74%
Craig Bergland (Green) 1.6%

Two reasons why I'm posting this:
1) Jill Derby's had her chance twice. And consider the considerably wider spread in 2008 when Obama beat McCain in Washoe by 25,000 votes and Derby lost the county to Heller by 2,000 votes.

2) Even in her 2008 performance Derby got 41% of the vote. Presuming Kate Marshall will be the only Democrat in the race she should be able to get 40% plus x. If at least two Republicans (Sharron Angle and an establishment candidate) and a right wing independent or and IAP candidate run, the chances of Marshall winning are very high.

Marshall only got ~42% in this district in her 2010 re-election campaign against a Las Vegas-based opponent
Granted, it was 2010 and her opponent was fairly strong. So let's say she gets about ~45% of the vote. I think Sharrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrron is still strong enough to peel off more than 5%.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I actually think Angle will be the biggest GOP vote getter
with the establishment candidate playing second fiddle.
[ Parent ]
Really?
Given that poll which showed her getting Some Dude numbers against Heller in a statewide primary, I think that might be going a bit too far.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I sorta envision things playing out like NY-23
And Jon Ralston seems to think a free for all is good for Angle.

I could easily be wrong, though.

[ Parent ]
Doug Hoffman didn't have the history of losing a race against a huge target with bad approvals
It does make sense that she'd still get a significant amount of the vote though, enough to throw the election to Kate Marshall.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I agree
I see Angle as the top GOPer and the the establishment candidate as the spoiler to Angle.  

Its lucky its a special so no one has to give up their job on the GOP side, if it were otehrwise and Angle was in I can't imagine which GOPer would dive in knowing 20% or so of the usually counted-upon GOP vote is going to her.

[ Parent ]
What that "x" is matters, though.
If Marshall only gets 40% of the vote, a republican can still win while losing 20% of the republican vote, which is quite plausible. If Kate gets 45% of the vote, that number shrinks to 10%, which is less likely for a Republican to pull off. If she get's 47% or 48%, that number is 5%, which means that she's pretty much set.

The percentage that Marshal gets will also be important to the strength that she goes into the 2012 general election with. The new second will probably be more democratic than the current second, but this will still be a tough hold, more so if she squeaks by with, like, 42% of the vote than is she comes close to an outright majority.

[ Parent ]
my thinking goes something like this
different independent candidates 5%, Angle should get at least double digits, my guess 15% plus, Marshall would get at least Derby's 08 numbers so 42-45%, establishment Republican gets 35-28%. Maybe optimistic. But I simply don't see how in a Marshall-Angle-establ.R race either the establishment R or Angle get above 40% of the vote. A lot can happen until September but I simply don't see it as of now.
[ Parent ]
Angle
I don't think she can get 15% in the general, as she only got 8% of Republicans in that poll against Heller. But even if she gets 6%, that might be enough to throw the election as Marshall would then need just 47% of the two-party vote.  

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
Depends
Obviously that is statewide and she would likely do better outside of Vegas which is obviously pertinent here.
[ Parent ]
8%
I'd be very surprised if she got more than 12% in NV2. It's her home base, but it isn't that far to the right of the rest of the state: it's R+5 where the state as a whole is D+1. Even if she had 15% of Republicans in NV2, that works out to maybe 8% of all voters there, so I think her ceiling would be about 10% against a credible mainstream Republican.  

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
Under that math
Establishment R-45%
Marshall-45%
Angle-10%

It's too simplistic; it assumes only one establishment Republican, excludes Jill Derby and Lippold, and also excludes the myriad of independents and lesser Ds and Rs who will run. But it's a start.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Remember, that was 8% statewide, and with 7% undecided
presumably Angle would do better in NV-02 which likely has more teabaggers than Clark County, and if more Republican gadflies like Lippold or even a Some Dude get in, they could combine for more than 8%.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I think you're reading way too much into that poll
First of all, it was statewide, and NV-02 is more conservative than the state as a whole. Also, a huge part of this election will be about intensity and turnout.
[ Parent ]
I bet the GOP clears the deck...
for their candidate of choice, outside of Angle. So it will all depend on how much Angle will be able to peel off from the establishment GOP candidate.  
What about Kurt Lippold?
May he not run too? The more the merrier.
[ Parent ]
He was already running on the assumption this was a 2012 race w/primary, and...
...the same goes for Greg Brower and Mark Amodei, and maybe Brian Krolicki.

So there were 5 Republicans who wanted this, and the question is how many of them will bow out.  It's awfully tough to squeeze out as many as 4 of them, especially when 3 are well-liked establishmentarians.  Lippold presumably would be more receptive than Angle to the wishes of the party establishment, but still no guarantee he'd get out.

As long as we can squeeze out Derby and have just Marshall on our side, we're in good shape against what almost surely will be a divided GOP field, even if Angle doesn't run but we know she will.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
RRH
Is claiming Derby is running?  Is that true?  It really stinks if so.

29/D/Male/NY-01
This is where we're getting it from
http://www.therepublic.com/vie...

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Yeah
I just read the same article at multiple websites. Harry Reid will have something to say about that I'm sure. There could well be several candidates on both sides.
[ Parent ]
Offer Derby a statewide office
We can't afford to play games.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
A few hours later
and this is already looking like a huge clusterfuck. We could see a winner with something like 25% of the vote. And there doesn't appear to be any signature requirement, either, so there could be potentially dozens of candidates on the ballot.
Democrat Lock
There's no way the GOP can win with the abysmal field they've got. The Democrats have this seat locked down for generations to come.

50, straight white male, Democrat(Dan Boren/Gene Taylor 2012!), AL-7(born in AL-5)
Dust must settle and only one strong Dem must run, no more.
Jill Derby is wanting in, which may throw a wrench in Kate Marhsall's ambitions.  I hope atdleft stops by and gives us a view on wth is going on.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Bad news, not good
If Derby runs, game over, take it Republicans.

And no filing fee???  Lizard people are already packing the car and heading for Reno.

We had a shot here with picked candidates, but now it looks aour only shot is two establishment Reps plus Angle facing Marshall and Derby, plus an assortment of teabagger gadflies who do better than the Green gadflies.

They need
a clean field where there is a single strong Dem.  Derby is one and so is Marshall, so they need to figure out which one of them wants it more and get the other to bow out.  

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Like atdleft said the Nevada State Democratic party is a machine.
What are machines good for? Getting what they want.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Any lawyers in the house?
I'd like to know how strong that opinion is. Will it hold well in court?

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
David is a lawyer
But I don't see him here in the comments at the moment.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
Looking at her twitter feed
Marshall seems to be an Obama Democrat. Definitely worth it in a district like this one.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
.
You realize that's her live tweeting Obama's budget speech, right?
[ Parent ]
Fantastic news
and the district is only going to get more Democratic after redistricting.
And this one's a pickup, folks
Provided Jill Derby can be coaxed out of the race or at least isolated to the point of not getting any traction, I really don't see Republicans unifying behind a candidate enough to hold this one.

I could be wrong...

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

Hopefully it is a pickup, and
and we all can give a shout out to Sandoval for it, by appointing Heller rather than a placeholder to the Senate seat.
(I gotta assume that Sandoval had been advised that the NV-2 special would most likely be primary-less jungle style.)

Now it's up to Reid to do what he must to keep the field cleared for Marshall.

[ Parent ]
NV-02: It's a Ballot Royale | 53 comments

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