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SSP Daily Digest: 4/28 (Part Deux)

by: DavidNYC

Thu Apr 28, 2011 at 3:43 PM EDT


Other Races:

Philly Mayor: Even though several labor organizations endorsed his crazy ex-con nobody of an opponent, Philadelphia's largest union, the Federation of Teachers, came out for incumbent Michael Nutter earlier this week. But Nutter's been having problems with the municipal unions, with the city's white collar union (known as District Council 47... I've always wondered where they get these numbers) declining to endorse. (Several others have either backed Milton Street or no one at all.)

Wisconsin Recall: As expected, Democrats filed signatures against Rob Cowles, making him the sixth Republican to face a possible recall election. Republicans have filed against three Dems and missed the deadline against three others. Meanwhile, the state's Government Accountability Board asked a judge to give them more time to review the petitions, which would allow the agency to consolidate the elections on July 12. However, the MSNBC article linked first in this bullet suggests the elections may not take place until the fall.

WI Sup. Ct.: Under state law, the Supreme Court recount must be completed very quickly, by May 9. It's apparently only the third statewide recount in Wisconsin history. The most recent one took place in 1989... and the one before that in 1858! Unsurprisingly, things are off to a bumpy start in Waukesha, though fortunately the now-notorious Kathy Nickolaus has recused herself from the process.

Grab Bag:

EMILY: EMILY's List announced its first four endorsements of the cycle: Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ-01), Lois Frankel (FL-22), Christie Vilsack (IA-04), and Ann McLane Kuster (NH-02).

Pennsylvania: PPP did something on their new PA poll that I like, and that I hope we'll see more of: They included a statewide generic House ballot, which in this case showed respondents favoring Dems by a 42-36 margin, despite weak numbers for Obama.

Town Halls: With Congress on recess and members back home doing town halls, we're seeing some turnabout from the summer of 2009, with motivated liberals showing up to castigate Republicans for their votes to kill Medicare. Ordinarily, this would be the sort of topic we'd love to cover in the Daily Digest, but the good news/bad news is that there are just too many of them for us to keep track of. What's more, other outlets are doing a great job of covering them, like ThinkProgress and the DCCC.

Redistricting Roundup:

Michigan: We've been saying this for some time ourselves, but now the MI state lege is hearing it, too: In order to preserve Detroit's VRA seats, a redistricting expert for the legislative black caucus agrees that new district lines will have to be drawn that cross the traditional "8 Mile" boundary separating the city of Detroit from its suburbs. Michigan's maps must be complete by Nov. 1.

Missouri: Republicans finally reached an agreement on a map at the 11th hour, sending it to Gov. Jay Nixon. (You can see the new map here.) Democrats in the state House are urging Nixon to veto the plan, where the map fell 13 votes short of a veto-proof majority. The governor has not yet said what he'll do, but there's also a dispute brewing as to whether the legislature will be even able to schedule an over-ride vote this session, or if they'll have to wait until September.

Nevada: Republicans have released their proposed maps, which you can find here. Democrats will put theirs out later today. Anjeanette Damon describes the congressional map as a 2-2 plan, but you be the judge.

Texas: Score one for Rep. Lloyd Doggett: He snarfed up a copy of what he believes is the congressional map that Republican congressmen have proposed to leaders of the legislature. A copy is here (PDF). An unnamed source tells the Austin Statesman that they think the map is out-dated, but that Republican plans for splitting Travis County (home of Austin) four ways, as shown by the map, are in fact correct.

Virginia: Well, it sure sounds like the Democrats have caved on the Virginia Senate map. A deal is reportedly done, and the key changes are summarized by the Richmond Times-Dispatch as follows:

Under the deal, the proposed new Democratic-leaning district in the Richmond area would be eliminated, according to Sen. John Watkins, R-Powhatan. Republicans would lose one of two senators in Virginia Beach and new districts would be created in Loudoun County and east of Lynchburg.

Also, the idiot Democrats in the House voted yet again for the newest Republican gerrymander (which makes mostly cosmetic changes). How stupid are these people? You don't fucking vote for the other side's gerrymander. I mean, it was one thing to act like this the first time around, when it appeared a multi-way deal was in place. But now these schmucks are like chickens voting to elect Col. Sanders. Hope you enjoy getting dipped in 11 herbs and spices and getting deep-fried to your doom, morans.

DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 4/28 (Part Deux)
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As I said in the last thread...
GOPers are trying to screw Horsford with their Congressional map, and they must be hoping they can either entice Ruben Kihuen or John Lee to go to "the dark side" and embrace their map. So far Ruben and the other Latino Dems are holding strong against it, and I haven't heard anything from Lee. As I said earlier, Horsford has virtually no options under this map. NV-01 actually looks like a district John Lee can win!

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


Virginia Sen
So it sounds like they have kept the set up in the Tidewater the same, having drawn two GOP senators together in Virginia Beach, but are caving by not drawing that new Richmond district (which sucks), and drawing what will certainly be a GOP-leaning district east of Lynchburg (God, I can only imagine) and what will likely be a somewhat GOP-leaning district in Loudon, though the demographics there mean it will be in play (hopefully), and could in the long-run be a Dem-leaning area.

I did this mentally on the back of a napkin so I could be wrong about what the new districts will be like. Still, this seems to be what has happened. Thus, having gone from a map that gave Dems a shot at 24-16 (counting the swing seat in Virginia Beach) to now risking 22-18 at best, if not dooming ourselves to actually losing the majority if the elections in November go poorly.

Dammit.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05


FWIW
The VA Dem Senate Committee is outraising its GOP counterpart.  I just hope that Mark Warner can stop pontificating on the debt for one month so he can stump around the state for VA Dems.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
One statistic that makes me feel OK if it's right......
I posted this comment in today's other digest a little while ago, but Ben Tribbett of NLS tweeted today that he's seen the new map and that McDonnell won 29 of the 40 districts under this map.  Ben cited that statistic to justify his claim that this map is a Democratic electoral disaster...and it turns out, not surprisingly, Ben was willfully dishonest.  In fact, the current map that has a 22-18 Dem majority is one where McDonnell won 30 of the 40 districts!  That's how things break down in a 59-41 blowout!

Given that the new map has one less McDonnell district than the current map, I'm going to withhold alarmism for the time being.  I would like honest observers who are map-savvy to weigh in after careful study.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
As I said below, it must mean
that Arlington is cracked instead of packed, the latter being what Tribett and the VA GOP want.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
It is cracked, Ben in another tweet said...
...the new SD-31 from Arlington to Loudoun remains intact.

So I will share a district with Ben (who lives in Rosslyn) after all.

As I said, I really would like honest map-savvy Virginia SSPers to study and opine.  Unfortunately the Virginia netroots are driven by a strange can't-even-identify agenda to fight whatever state Senate Dems vote for, and not willing to evaluate honestly.  So this place is about it for me to get an honest read.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
The Dems seem to be giving up one seat
If this is really a deal, that might be an OK (though not wonderful) concession. If they're just negotiating against themselves, then they're idiots.  

[ Parent ]
Well, it could be worse...
They could be acting like Nevada Republicans! So far, the new map shows Republicans conceding The Assembly in maintaining a 26-16 split (26 Dem pulrality/majority seats, 16 GOP plurality/majority seats) while creating possibly 3 more Dem pickups in The Senate (allowing for a 14-7 Dem supermajority!).  It seems like Nevada Republicans are putting all their redistricting eggs in one Congressional basket by pushing hard for a 2-2 split more likely to hold (than my past attempts at it).

I guess both Virginia Democrats and Nevada Republicans don't feel very confident about what they can reasonably expect (out of either The Leg or the courts)...

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
I've figured it out: it's blind hatred of Dick Saslaw
He's no great Democrat, kind of a pro-corporate hack, but he could cure cancer and they'd find a way to complain about it.

[ Parent ]
For some odd reason
Lowkell seems to find any excuse to take a dig at Favola.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
It's because she's backed by Saslaw.
There's been nothing controversial about her tenure on the county board, otherwise he would post about it, but all he does is rant about how Favola is being forced on the voters by the Democratic establishment.

[ Parent ]
LOL
I was wondering where you were going when you said you were comforted by something... then brought up NLS!

As for alarmism, all of my heated rhetoric was directed at the House Dems, not the Senate Dems. I guess I'll reserve judgment on the latter (though I'm quite pessimistic, and I could believe McDonnell would veto a second time). But as for the former, those guys are just idiots.


[ Parent ]
Agree totally on House Dems. There is not a more incompetent bunch...
...in America.

It's really frustrating.

My only solace is that at least they are too weak to hurt us.  With a 61-39 deficit they can't stop anything the GOP majority does even if they were the smartest bunch around, and even though they gave McDonnell some political cover for his map veto it's a given McDonnell would've vetoed even without any cover, making up whatever excuse could be fabricated to criticize only the Senate map.

But the incompetence matters in the future because it raises doubt whether House Dems can ever get their act together enough to expand their numbers.

At least if we can hold the state Senate this fall, we have a good shot at the Governorship in 2013 vs. Cuccinelli.  Even McAuliffe could beat him.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
What about Bill Bolling?
My impression was that Bolling passed on the governorship in 2009 with the understanding he could run in 2013. Meanwhile, Cuccinelli can run for re-election.

22, male, conservative, VA-08 (residence), CA-15 (school)

[ Parent ]
Bolling seems to have McDonnell's support
but as I've said time and time again, Bolling is a complete empty suit who would be savaged by Cuccinelli in a primary (and moreso in a convention). Bolling's career has been that of a bland, nondescript, party-line Republican, from his days in the State Senate to his tenure as Lt. Governor. Meanwhile, Cuccinelli is a true believer who's done nothing but throw red meat at the base in his term so far as Attorney General. McDonnell may be popular among Republicans, but I don't think he's popular enough to pull Bolling across the finish line vs. Cuccinelli.

[ Parent ]
Johnny is right, the Republicans are excited by Cuccinelli, blah about Bolling......
Bolling can't beat Cooch unless Cooch really runs a bad campaign or has some unknown scandal come out about him.

And we don't want Bolling to beat Cooch!  Cuccinelli is toxic enough that we can beat him with imperfect candidates.  I would be OK with McAuliffe as our nominee against him, because the negatives cancel out at worst for us, and McAuliffe will run a mechanically strong campaign--probably better than Cooch.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
McDonnell won't veto it again
It passed the Senate by a 32-5 margin, so it's veto-proof now.

[ Parent ]
Oh, ok, good.
No more shenanigans.  Not a very good map, but definitely better than I feared it would end up.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
McDonnell Numbers are so useless
Mark Warner probably won more than 30 of these seats.  Elections at the extremes have no informational value.

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08

[ Parent ]
Yup, and I suspected Ben was being too cute by half right up front......
I read Ben's tweet on McDonnell winning 29 of 40 and was suspicious right away.  Obviously it was a 59-41 blowout, so the proposed map couldn't be far off from the current map, and the only question was in which direction.  As it turns out, the new proposal is still one seat better than at present.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I partially blame VPAP
They calculated McDonnell numbers, and only McDonnell numbers, when the districts were first released.  I'm not sure why they thought that to be a good idea.

I'd guess from his tweets that NLS won't be running.  Doesn't much matter to me, since I think I'm in the 32nd now.

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08


[ Parent ]
I'm pretty sure Mark Warner won all 40 Senate districts in 2008.


25, Male, Eurasian American, Democrat, VA-11 (current residence), VA-09 (college)

[ Parent ]
there's gotta be at least one


[ Parent ]
Every last House district too
All 100 of them

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Geez, was Gilmore that bad a campaigner?
I know Mark Warner is manifestly popular, but wow...just wow.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Also, ex-Sen. John Warner wanted Tom Davis to have his seat.
But because the VA GOP went with a convention in lieu of a primary, Davis did not have a chance in hell of making it out.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Well, there's that
and there's the fact that Warner is the most popular politician in the state, while Gilmore is probably the least popular politician in the state (at least of those with a statewide profile). Only the hardcore partisan Republicans deigned to vote for Gilmore. Everyone else went for the guy who fixed Virginia's budget over the guy who wrecked it.

[ Parent ]
They wanted to avoid a court map
They might have been willing to risk back to back elections on the current lines, but it became apparent in the last few days that the VA court did not consider it too late to put in a new map, and seemed inclined to consider several of the commission-produced ones.

For those who haven't seen them, that would have been a very bad thing. It would have made several Democratic seats more republican without any real corrisponding gain anywhere.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent


[ Parent ]
Your information comes from where???
You sound like you've got inside info.  If you can't reveal sources, then OK, but you at least should say you've got anonymous sources in Virginia, or elsewhere who are in the loop on what's going on in Virginia.

You're definitely sharing information that I haven't found anywhere else.

And if what you're sharing is true, then yes the state Senate Dems were in a box and got the best-case scenario.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Rumors
VA Dems have the same firm as several other Dem legislative chambers elseware, including one I have done work with, and I am somewhat nosy. So its second-hand, but apparently there were concerns that things had been set-up perfectly for the courts to decide that it was not too late to institute new maps.

The House map had passed overwhelmingly, and there were a dozen senate maps produced by a bipartisan commission laying around. Now tell me if you were the VA Supreme Court what would you do:

1.Say it was too late for any maps and force people to run on ones that were ten years out of date and run into one-man one vote issues. Not to mention forcing a second election next year.

2.Institute a modified version of the House Plan, and then either pick a commission map, or do a least change version of the current map. Either of those two would be disaster.

Supposedly a lawyer close to one of Justices indicated that it was unlikely they would force two elections except as a last resort, and that their inclination was to do door number 2 if at all possible. The Dems caucused Tuesday night and decided to deal.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent


[ Parent ]
if anything, I guess that's somewhat fair
The VA GOP have 2/3 and should get to screw with us a bit more on redistricting.  Where we went wrong and where we let the GOP get a bigger share was not negotiating with McDonnell.  They already had a 2/3rds win on the issue (state house plus Congressional) and we got our 1/3 with the senate.  Sounds like we negotiated too early and should've dragged it out a little bit more.

[ Parent ]
Thanks for the info, that explains all this and is more credible than...
...believing merely that Saslow "caved" without good cause.

We still have a map where we can realistically hold the state Senate.  Now if we can just do that this fall, we'll have a shot to get back to 2-out-of-3 control in 2013 in the Governor's race.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Potential silver lining
I don't think Congressional redistricting is included in the package, so there is the potential for that to go to court and/or fail pre-clearance by the DOJ.

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08

[ Parent ]
Given how the Dems have rolled over so far
I'm sure they'll meekly agree to the 8-3 House of Delegates plan.

[ Parent ]
Probably
But I think there is a non-trivial chance the map won't be pre-cleared or will be changed in court because of the 3rd.

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08

[ Parent ]
Who says it will be 8-3?
What if the big, bad governor says he will veto anything that isn't 9-2? Won't we cave in to that?  

[ Parent ]
No, McDonnell is claiming to be the "nonpartisan"
meaning he'll be fine with the 8-3 map that the House has proposed.

[ Parent ]
9R-2D
would be a dummymander anyway, even if the GOP had full control of the process.  There's only so many Dems that can be packed into the 3rd and 8th districts, and trying to shred other areas of Democratic strength would only cause trouble for Republicans in nearby districts.  I don't think that 8-3 can necessarily be locked in for the whole decade, even assuming that they give up all hope of winning the 11th.

35, Male, Democrat, MD-8

[ Parent ]
Plus 9-2 isn't really possible anymore
The bright side is that almost any 8-3 map has some serious dummymander potential. Although everyone talks about the political and racial transformation of NOVA the changes in the suburbs of Richmond and Hampton Roads are just as significant. Over the course of the decade the 8-3 map could easily become a 7-4 or even 8-3 map in our favor.  

25, Democrat, male, Currently living and voting in PA-2, originally form OK-1

[ Parent ]
Btw, here are the Nevada CD partisan #s...
From the GOP plan, courtesy of Anjeanette Damon...

New #s from the GOP: CD 1 46% Dem; CD 2 43% GOP; CD 3 41% GOP; CD 4 58% Dem. Plan gives Heck safe district.


Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


Why
Why are the numbers given by one side only?

Male, 26, MA-08 (hometown MI-06). Independent progressive, Christian.

[ Parent ]
The Republicans are first out the gate...
Contrary to what everyone in Carson City expected. Dems announced earlier this week a plan will be released this afternoon, but GOPers made no advance notice of this being released.

I'm sure once the Nevada Dems' plan is released at 4:30 this afternoon, we'll start to see partisan and demographic breakdowns in their Legislature and Congressional maps.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Do you think this one goes to the courts?


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Full Numbers
http://www.nevadanewsbureau.co...

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
Nevada
Late tonight I will complete transferring the 2008 Obama/McCain numbers for Nevada into the 2010 census voting districts used on Dave's App (it's mostly done, I just have about a quarter of Las Vegas to match up). Hopefully soon thereafter it can be added to the App and then y'all can just map out the proposed plans accordingly.

I would note, however, that many Nevada precincts have clearly experienced massive growth just between 2008 and 2010 (hardly a surprise). The transferability of 2008 figures to 2012 outcomes is therefore obviously subject to debate.


Does that mean you've wrapped up IL?


[ Parent ]
Well
I still need Richland County, which I did not receive in the mail today. If I don't receive it tomorrow then I will call the county clerk (yet again) and request that she fax it to me. If that fails, then I will get her to read me the figures over the phone.

Richland County is small enough that assuming there is any precinct discordance with the census voting districts then I can resolve it within minutes. Everything else is ready to forward to Dave for upload to the App.


[ Parent ]
Illinois Project
I've forwarded the Illinois data to Dave. Hopefully it'll show up on the App soon.

I've received a huge assist from a very helpful collector of election data that I got in touch with via DavidNYC & jeffmd. If all goes well, I'll be preparing many more states for Dave's App quite soon. Fingers crossed!

Now, back to the Florida Project!


[ Parent ]
Very exciting
Thanks Dave.

[ Parent ]
Thanks, roguemapper!
Really, I appreciate this... And I'm looking forward to finding out the Obama/McCain #s in these proposed maps.

Btw, is there also a way to upload Reid/Angle 2010 data to the map? IMHO Obama 2008 represents something close to (but not quite) the high water mark for Dems, while Reid 2010 represents a more sober view of what Dems can expect.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Well
I can't speak directly for Dave, but I'm sure it could be added. Much more easily than Obama/McCain data, for that matter, since the 2010 election precincts would already match the census voting districts (I believe the last 2010 precinct changes were in place by February).

[ Parent ]
Nevada's done
Clark County was deceptive. At first, it appeared as if I could simply plug in most of the numbers. Then, I ran a formula to calculate the total number of votes as a percentage of VAP (turnout). That's generally my last step to assess the reliability of my data. If I get wild numbers, then I know something's probably wrong. In any case, something was wrong. It's fixed now.

[ Parent ]
If you get around to the 2008 presidential and/or 2010 gubernatorial numbers for Oregon...
I will love you forever.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Oregon
I can't promise anything before I look it over, but I'll assess the Oregon situation Friday evening. Since it's a relatively small state, it may prove fairly easy. I'll see what I can do!

[ Parent ]
I have Idaho data.
I can mail it to you if you tell me a way to get in touch with you. Also, I'd be incredibly grateful if you did MT, haha. Those two states, ID and MT are two states where I have enough political contacts to get the redistricting commissions of the states to consider my work, so it'd be cool if I had some real data to work with.  

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

[ Parent ]
ID & MT
Both states should be rather easy if I have a full dataset. I just downloaded the precinct data from the Idaho SoS website. The only problem is that a number of the counties don't have the absentee ballots distributed by precinct. Transferring the figures to Dave's App without the absentees for those counties would obviously fail to capture a significant number of votes.

In any event, if you give me an email addy then I'll email you so you can reply with the data you have. I imagine I could do Idaho quite swiftly.


[ Parent ]
Sure.
My name is Rasmus Pianowski, and the email address is
firstname.lastname@gmail.com (I guess it's harder to find for web crawlers that way- I don't want to get overwhelmed by spam).

MT might be a problem, I don't know how you did the other states, but MT precincts and DRA subdivisions don't align. In Idaho, they do.  

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)


[ Parent ]
I hope your middle name isn't Senreports


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Heh. No, not really.
The name is actually not that rare in Scandinavian countries-- I'm just not Scandinavian.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

[ Parent ]
I know, I've heard of it before
From your last name, I'm guessing you're Polish?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
My father is Polish and immigrated to Germany
in the mid-1980s, my mother is German. I was born in 1992 and don't speak Polish, so... I don't really self-identify as Polish.  

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

[ Parent ]
OK, I'm about to bust a gut laughing......
A lifelong German son of a Polish immigrant "has Idaho data."

Gotta love SSP.

I'm equally amazed at the people on the Canadian elections thread furiously typing about this or that riding, by name, leaning this way or trending that way.

SSP truly has the most fascinating collection of campaign enthusiasts not just in America, not just in the world, but in all of human history.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
OK
I just sent email. If Idaho precincts line up with the DRA then they'll be the first. All the states I've done thus far have required manipulating the data to fit - ranging from extreme in the case of Nevada to slight in the case of Minnesota.

There are basically four types of issues that arise:

1) Election precincts that are combined in the census voting districts. This is relatively simple: I just add up the numbers.

2) Election precincts that are numbered or named differently in the census voting districts. In this case, I basically have to compare maps until I match them up, and then transfer the data accordingly.

3) Election precincts that have split between 2008 and 2010. These are obviously the most problematic. There is no precise way to transfer the data. What I do is distribute the 2008 precinct vote proportional to either (a) voter registration, if available; or (b) voting age population.

4) Election precincts that collectively cover the same geographic area, but in which the boundaries have changed in a very substantial way. These have been rare, but I essentially add their votes together, and then redistribute them as in #3 above.

If 2008 Idaho precincts generally align with the census voting districts in use on Dave's App, then it'll take me almost no time at all to do it.


[ Parent ]
As it is, THANK YOU!


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Austin
I do not know why the GOP is trying to split Travis county.  One can easily draw two safe Democratic seats using Hays, Travis and part of Williamson County.  One can gerrymander two safe Democratic seats and one toss-up seat out of Travis county.  If I recall the 2010 Census put the city of Austin a 790,000 people, that is more than sufficient for a single district.  If the GOP were smarter instead of trying to crack Travis county they would pack as many Democrats as possible into one district in Travis county and prevent people from calling them out on such a mess.  Based on that map it does looks like DFW is receiving a second minority-majority district that includes west Dallas and a heavily Democratic part of Fort Worth.  That is, if this map is the proposed map that makes it through.

I suppose they are hellbent
on getting rid of every Caucuasian Dem in the delegation.  However, we all know what happened the last time they tried to draw a "fajita strip."

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
31 is going to be interesting
Carter won't be a congressman by the end of the decade. Williamson is swinging left as is Bell. What may be a 41% McCain district now would likely be a 55% Dem district in 2020.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Yep.
But that's really the one danger spot I can see on that map.

Looks to me like three of the four "new" districts would be Republican leaning, though "new" is in quotes because Farenthold would almost certainly run in the 35th (basically, they excised Corpus Christi from the old 27th and threw it in with some of Paul's old territory.)  The 33rd looks like it would be a Hispanic majority (or at least plurality.)  34th looks like it would be very Republican... the Travis County portion is Republican-leaning while the rural counties are dark red.  36th, also Republican; Beaumont/Port Arthur isn't enough to balance out the rural counties.

Also, Sessions is shored up by having Rowlett and Sachse added to his district.  Aside from Carter potentially being in trouble, this would be a solid Republican gerrymander.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent


[ Parent ]
Whoa there
Wasn't DFW supposed to get a new seat?  That area grew tremendously.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
33rd is in DFW
It goes from west side of Dallas through Grand Prairie and Arlington over to Fort Worth.  Just from eyeballing the map it's probably a Hispanic seat, though it's also a lot of areas that mid-cities Republicans like Marchant don't want.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

[ Parent ]
On Ron Paul
Isn't he and Farenthold in the same district now? Isn't Paul from Matagorda county?

Not that this would stop him from moving to Brazoria (if he's not there now).

I want a better view of Harris, see what they did with Olson, Culberson, and how tight in Poe is.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


[ Parent ]
IIRC
Paul lives in Brazoria County.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

[ Parent ]
Lake Jackson is in Brazoria
You are right. Good call. For some reason i thought it was further south. Looks like Paul is getting all of Galveston and maybe some of the Clear Lake/NASA area now.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Doggett in 25
As posted in previous thread, I think Doggett still wins this 25th district.

[ Parent ]
I dunno
He got a narrow-ish win this year. 3 of the 4 rural counties are no big deal and can be neglected (especially Hayes which is shifting left), but then there's Comal (the one at the bottom). It's blood red and if New Braunfels is in there, it's game over in the next wave. That would be enough to shift the overall PVI to low single digit Dems.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Unfortunately
Yes, New Braunfels is in the district. I don't think it'd be enough to push it below a D+5 PVI.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
25 has Seguin not New Braunfels
Unless I am misreading something, it looks like District 21 has all of Comal County. District 25 starts in Austin, follows Southeast of I35 through San Marcs, and then cuts over into Seguin in Guadalupe County.  Senguin has become increasingly Hispanic and even has a few solid Democratic precincts.  I also just tried to draw this 25 district in Dave's App, and the version I drew was 67% Obama.  I think what the Republicans are doing is trying to draw it as Hispanic as possible, so they can claim they drew a new Hispanic district to help them fend off the VRA.  However, this district is still solidly Democratic.  

[ Parent ]
Misreading
25 probably has part of New Braunfels and Seguin. It looks like the split is running along the interstate, with everything east in Comal and Hays being 25 and everything west being 21.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
West Border
It depends upon what the Western border of District 25 is.  I assumed that it was the county line, but I suppose that it could be I35.  If it is I35, New Braunfels would be split.

[ Parent ]
Phila Mayor
Yawn. The real action's in the Council races -- the open seats in the 1st, 2nd, 6th, 8th and GOP at-large.

C'mon
You're not excitied to see nutter win by 70%+ in the general after eeking out a 40-50% win in the primary.

The city council will be itneresting, not for who wins but how things change, if at all.  I can't imagine turnover of this magnitude is that common and it will be interesting to see if fresh/clean candidates get in or if connections to the retiring slime are brought in.

The DROP program was political suicide for Verna and company.


[ Parent ]
Wisconsin Recall: I wouldn't assume MSNBC is more up-to-date...
...than the other story citing the GAB's July 12 target date for the elections.

The MSNBC piece, which I saw earlier today, said "fall" as if it was informed speculation.  I bet they wrote it without awareness of July 12, or they would've cited that.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


I agree w/you
And I was set to ignore that MSNBC quote, but it came right in the midst of quotes from a GAB official, so I thought perhaps it was something more than speculation.

[ Parent ]
Indeed, smart people on the ground have been saying they'd probably be sometime in July
for the better part of a month at least.

[ Parent ]
Dems get more than 26K sigs to recall Cowles.
Graeme Zielinski, a spokesman for the Wisconsin Democratic Party, confirms that Dems today filed 26,524 signatures supporting a recall election against GOP senator Robert Cowles, out of 15,960 required. This is the strongest signature showing by Dems yet: Against five previous GOP targets, Dems amassed signatures in the area of 140 or 150 percent.

-The Plum Line

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


Cowles was unopposed in 2008
and got 60,000 votes.

Let's assume for the sake of argument that all of those 26,000 people come out to vote against Cowles (which is too nice to us, since not all will vote and not all who do vote will vote against Cowles) and there are 60,000 total votes (which is too nice to Cowles, since I doubt the recall will have turnout as high as for a presidential election). That means we're only 4,000 votes shy of clearing 50%.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Wow,
How did Democrats let someone like Cowles, who represents such a marginal district, go unopposed in 2008?

[ Parent ]
His district isn't that marginal
57-42 Bush in '04, and the margin was pretty similar in the SC election (I have it as 57.9% Prosser). Obama won it, sure, but that's no big feat when he won the state by 14.

[ Parent ]
He had some surprisingly weak poll
numbers in the last PPP poll.  

[ Parent ]
Sorry to be a wet blanket
But since Cowles went unopposed, there was probably a substantial undervote in the state Senate Election. A lot of the people who signed the petition are probably democrats who wouldn't vote for Cowles. I'm looking for some statistical evidence to support this right now.

[ Parent ]
Only 70% of the voters in the parts of Brown County in Cowles' district voted in the State Senate election
http://www.co.brown.wi.us/i_br...

40564 votes were cast in the portions of Brown County in the district, only 28370 of which had votes for the State Senate election, either for Cowles or write-ins.


[ Parent ]
I can't easily find precinct level data for the other counties.


[ Parent ]
Go to the GAB's website
They keep precinct-by-precinct totals (well, I guess y'all call them 'wards') for all counties in one statewide Excel file.

[ Parent ]
Does the GAB have total votes by ward?
I can only find the results for specific races by ward, not the total votes cast. I may just add together the McCain and Obama numbers for a quick and dirty approximation, but I'm not sure I feel up to it tonight.

[ Parent ]
Does the GAB have total votes by ward?
I can only find the results for specific races by ward, not the total votes cast. I may just add together the McCain and Obama numbers for a quick and dirty approximation, but I'm not sure I feel up to it tonight.

[ Parent ]
Full district analysis complete, 71.4% 0f voters who voted for a major party candidate in the presidential election voted in Cowles district voted in the state Senate election.
85286 people voted for either Obama or McCain, whereas 60900 either voted for Cowles or wrote someone in for the State senate election. Considering the fact that this analysis discounted votes for thrid party presidential candidates, that's probably almost the exact same undervote as in brown county.

The number of signatures collected is equal to a bit less than 30% of the two-way 2008 presidential vote. While I don't expect turnout to get that high, this race is by no means a gimmie based on the number of signatures we got. This is still probably the race I'm actually the most pessimistic about of the recalls.


[ Parent ]
Still, the turnout for the recalls will probably be much lower, yeah?


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
We know what the 2010 gubernatorial vote is
4x the recall requirement. They got 160%, meaning 40% of the 2010 vote for governor, and 20% of the voting age population in the district has been contacted, IDed, and has taken action against Cowles, and the Democratic Party has a clean, up-to-date list of their names and addresses.

All we have to do now is turn them out in a couple months.


[ Parent ]
Not necessarily
I'm pretty sure the Gubernatorial vote is only the benchmark for recalling walker. You need 1/4th the vote in the last election FOR THAT OFFICE, which would be the 2008 election.

[ Parent ]
Incorrect
The most recent gubernatorial vote in the district is the threshold for all offices. From alder to Governor to appeals court judge.

From the GAB website

http://gab.wi.gov/elections-vo...

"The number of signatures required to trigger a recall is one-quarter of the number of votes cast for governor in the most recent gubernatorial election."


[ Parent ]
Oh wow.
I guess the number of people who voted in the Gubernatorial election must just be eerily similar to the number who voted in the state senate election.

[ Parent ]
This will actually benefit Dem recall efforts in 2012
Only needing to get ~20,000 signatures per district is helpful, especially if the movement continues in 2012.

There are about a half-dozen or so elected in 2010 in Obama districts, so Dems could actually recall their way to a majority in 2012...if the fervor keeps up for Dems!


[ Parent ]
There's no question that we can recall our way to majority this year if we don't quite manage this year.
The question is how much our state gets fucked over in the meantime.

[ Parent ]
Did you spell morons as "morans" deliberately?
Pretty funny coincidence if you didn't.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



Pretty sure it's intentional
And for those of us with Brian Moran as chair of their state's Democratic party (Virginia), it seems appropriate in the most painful kind of way.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

[ Parent ]
I guess this one should go in the glossary, too


[ Parent ]
I think that's pretty common in the Left side of the blogosphere.
From my limited exposure, anyways.  

22, male, conservative, VA-08 (residence), CA-15 (school)

[ Parent ]
CA-36 special
Just a note that vote-by-mail ballots are out for the May 17 election. Sixteen names on the ballot!
(and remember that will in all likelihood be a top-two runoff in July)

VA St Sen
Based on the vapap chart here:

http://www.vpap.org/updates/re...

It looks like the new map has a few more safer GOPer, a few less safer Dems, but the partisan breakdown by performance is about the same, 11 seat are d+1 or better and there are fewer highly endangered seats (R+10 or higher).

Looks like the makings for some very exciting election in '11, '15 & '19 with (by my count) 25 seats potentially in play to one degree or another in the next 10 years.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


Canada-PM: NDP may get 51 seats -- just in Quebec
http://www.theglobeandmail.com...
An updated seat projection by EKOS predicts the NDP could win 51 of Quebec's 75 seats.

Meanwhile.... for the background of one of the NDP Quebec candidates

Until last week, she'd been working in Ottawa - about three hours away from the riding - as an assistant manager of Oliver's Pub, on the Carleton University campus.

snip -- and now given her success, in the final week of the campaign, in a move that makes David Wu look like a normal politico, she took a trip out of the country:

"She's actually in Las Vegas," says her boss, Rod Castro.


"I'm Martha Coakley and I approve this vacation"
That's all i got.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
As long as she...
Doesn't look like this...

Or sound like this...

Perhaps she'll be OK here in Vegas. ;-)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
The NDP spin is...
Our Candidates are every day Canadians, and they don't have a lot of money and booked this vacation months before the election was announced and canceling would have cost them a lot of money.  

[ Parent ]
Non-issue
There's plenty of joke candidates and even MPs from all three parties, that is what happens when districts are only made up of 100,000 people and you live in a Westminster system where personal traits don't matter to the voters as much as how they'll tow the party line.

The former BQ voters that are supporting the NDP en masse aren't going to switch their votes because the NDP candidate is a joke, they're really voting for Layton.

Anyways the NDP hasn't peaked yet. They still have the momentum, there's still a good chunk of Grits who could switch their votes and there's still a very, very large pool of Undecided voters who like Layton's personal qualities. Both the Tories and Liberal attack ads against the NDP aren't working.

In otherwords, I'd bet that the NDP's bottom at this point is 25%.  


[ Parent ]
Also
"Nothing in the culture of the federal Liberals has prepared them for life as a third party." This is a big tent/political machine party that's whole entire schtick is based around them being Canada's party that delivers results. As a third party they'd fail to claw their way back to the top. I could see them remaining like the LibDems in Britain as they represent a constituency that fits into neither party.

Their support groups would be very similar to Britain: Newfoundland, Toronto's metro area, probably a good chunk of Montreal and Vancouver Centre and Vancouver Quadra. So in otherwords they would be the party of immigrants, the urban elite and the rural areas that hate both Social Democracy and Conservatism (Newfoundland)


[ Parent ]
The Canadian Liberals have been losing immigrants
Iggy's been focused too much on centralism. Harper has been pushing pro-immigrant programs of various sorts. Don't know how many immigrants (about 20% of the Canadian vote, if I understand correctly) have been drifting NDP.

[ Parent ]
Yeah
I know, they have many problems on that front. The Italians and Chinese have been drifting away from them at a rapid pace towards the Tories and the Indians seem to be comfortable with voting for the NDP.  

[ Parent ]
It's the best they've got
now that they've been caught off-guard by the NDP surge.

http://www.montrealgazette.com...

I suspect the BQ is fighting for its life now, also pointing to NDP candidates who are less than fluent,

"It is certainly not serious to be in Europe or in Vegas during an election," he added.

"It is not serious to be not able to have a debate in French in Quebec. This is not acceptable."

While I suspect there will be some backsliding from the NDP to the Liberals and even Conservatives (yes the NDP has taken some blue collar support from the CPC), the NDP does still have the momentum.

51 seats for the NDP in Quebec would be incroyable.


[ Parent ]
That would
be great if the BQ is terminated by the NDP. The BQ is the single biggest obstacle to ending the Harper government in Canada. I hoping this isn't one of these poll surges where voters commit to voting for the NDP when asked, but when they enter the poll booth they vote completely differently. It's going to be very hard to get these rusted on BQ voters to vote for the NDP.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Wow
NDP currently has but 1 of Quebec's 75 seats.  That's insane.

[ Parent ]
The new Virginia Senate map
http://redistricting.dls.virgi...

Changes:

1. The district in Virginia Beach that was winnable, now isn't. It went back to its previous status as a 37% Deeds district.

2. The one big improvement to a district was the 10th, which went from 33% Deeds in the current map to 41% Deeds. There might be an outside shot of that one being competitive in an open seat, but I doubt it will be this year.

3. The new seats are the 22nd, east of Lynchburg (36% Deeds), and the 13th in NoVa (35% Deeds). Both will be safe Republican.

Aside from that, the districts' numbers are pretty much the same as the vetoed map. The Democrats will have to somehow hold 21 of the 22 seats they currently have.


So this is largely an incumbent protection map for Dems?
I think they can hold the majority.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Well, aside from several incumbents being vulnerable still
Houck, Puckett, and Reynolds, in particular.

[ Parent ]
Reynolds and Houck are improved
http://www.vpap.org/updates/re...

Puckett is also one of the few Dems who can hold that district and I think he can.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Yes, they're improved
but they're still Republican-leaning districts. And if either retires, you can say goodbye to the Senate majority.

[ Parent ]
This has been said before
but using McDonnell/Deeds number as a benchmark is almost as misleading as assuming WV is heavily Republican because they vote Republican for presidential races.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
What we're looking for
is about 24-25 seats that would vote for a Democrat in a tied statewide election. This new map surely doesn't qualify.  

[ Parent ]
That was never going to happen and isn't essential because...
The Republicans under no circumstances would go that far, and Democrats won the state Senate with a much worse map than that in 2009.

Regarding a statewide tied election, Deeds-McDonnell for Attorney General was just that in 2005, with McDonnell winning by only a few hundred votes, and Deeds won only in 17 districts compared to 23 for McDonnell.

Even more dramatically, Kaine won that year 52-47, and still won only the same number, 17, of state Senate districts.  Kaine just outperformed Deeds in almost all those same districts, indeed winning and losing the same ones except for one Kaine-McDonnell district, and one Kilgore-Deeds district.

And yet Democrats won 21 seats in that same gerrymandered GOP map just 2 years later in 2007, and then picked up another Democratic-leaning seat in 2010.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
A couple points in response
First, I'm not saying we can't win on a suboptimal map. I know we can. The point is to not have to. I assume you can think of several examples, past and present, where a majority depending on electing members from very unfriendly territory. It can leave the party unpleasantly boxed-in.

Second, It is possible to draw a legal VA Senate map of the kind I describe. The first Democratic proposal came close.  


[ Parent ]
Sure, but losing the last Governor's race boxed us in, and that's that
If SSPer BenjaminDisraeli is right that the court-drawn map option wasn't going to give us 2 elections and wasn't going to do any better than this, and might do worse, then this is it.

Unlike the Virginia netroots, I'm willing to cut Dick Saslow some slack that he's competent and knows what he's doing when it comes to protecting his party's majority status.  Frankly BenjaminDisraeli's explanation is a lot more credible than "Saslow is stupid" which is what Ben Tribbett and Lowell Feld would have everyone believe.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
If you scroll down,
you'll see that I give this new proposal my very tepid, bitter, agreement.


[ Parent ]
Ugh
I didn't see that we gave up BOTH potential new seats. I think this would be just barely preferable to a court drawn map, if only because our vote distribution sucks. Still, I'm not delighted.  

[ Parent ]
I'd take our chances with the courts
It'd unlock the House map a bit, and who knows what could happen on the federal level. But when your alternative is 8-3, you can't possibly do any worse.

Then again, I don't think I've seen any decision-making by empowered Democrats in any state so far where I've agreed with their moves. Arkansas was a shit-show, Virginia's turning to crap, Chaisson admittedly did not hold a lot of cards in LA but mostly caved in the end, Hickenlooper refuses to issue veto threats. If Nixon doesn't veto, then sheesh. About the best you can say is that Iowa Dems were smart enough to accept the map they got, but that's pretty meager.

Honestly, I think our best showing so far is the new lines in Indiana's 8th!


[ Parent ]
I dunno... If Nevada Dems' legislative maps...
Are a sign of what's to come with Congressional redistricting, then we should be in for a really fun surprise! IMHO this really boxes in Brian Sandoval. He keeps saying he wants "fair maps", and this delivers them to him. If he threatens to veto this while defending the Nevada GOP's ridiculous dummymander, then not only does he look like a dick... But he also doesn't look all that smart.  

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
The thing about Virginia
is that they're getting an opportunity to take what we have, and we're getting a chance to keep it. They give up nothing except a guarantee to take what we have. On top of that,  we give up the chance to pick up two Congressional seats. If I'm John Boehner or Frank Wolf, I'm probably pushing this deal. If I'm Bob McDonnell, I don't like it much at all.

Gut check: would I like this deal in reverse in New York? Not really, no.

This one is a hard call.


[ Parent ]
You raise some good points
However, I don't see why this should be the case anymore:

"On top of that, we give up the chance to pick up two Congressional seats."

To the extent this "deal" ever made sense, the congressional part of the whole arrangement could only be propped up if all three maps were passed at once as part of a single bill. That's what I assumed would have to happen at the outset, and I was quite shocked when it didn't. I feel like bifurcating the process in fact screwed the Dems, because we held leverage over the federal map and were trading it for the senate map.

But the legislative maps are now a done deal. It's a whole new ballgame. We can play as hard as we want on the congressional map and force it to go to court. We already have our senate map. There's nothing (more) they can do to us.


[ Parent ]
Virginia Dems will accept the 8-3 map and the only hiccup will be if...
...DOJ or some private party raises a VRA issue, perhaps on retrogression but I don't know.

My sense is the state Dems are plenty happy just to make Connolly safe and call it a day.

FWIW, at least a couple other districts are very winnable if they were to become open seats and Dems nominated DLCish candidates.  Forbes' and Rigell's seats fit that bill...their seats, even after being made a little safer, are not truly safe except for them personally as scandal-free incumbents.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Very stupid of them
The Republicans can't really draw a 9-2 map.  

[ Parent ]
I;m just hoping we gain back control of the state senate
before my state does redistricting.

[ Parent ]
The WI GOP mulling reinvigorating opposition to them.
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


There's so much shit in that budget all ready, throwing in the Union bill again won't matter
I mean, they're already slashing education by a billion bucks in that bill.

[ Parent ]
Nevada Democrats out with their maps now
http://www.nevadanewsbureau.co...

Thoughts in the next post.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


Must correct, the congressional map is still in the workshop
This is just state legislative maps.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
What a fucking tease :(
I don't know enough about Nevada politics for the state legislative maps to be sexy. :(

[ Parent ]
It will be released next week...
That was the original plan. Dems didn't expect GOPers to dump all their maps on us today.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Nevada Dems propose "fair plan"??!!
OK, so that's a stretch. It still draws some lines in ways to protect certain incumbents. However, the Democratic plan draws boundaries based on city lines and "natural boundaries". Oh, and not only does it create plenty of Latino districts and other minority-majority seats... But it even creates 5 seats that Asian-American candidates can presumably win!

Hmmm... I wonder who took queues from Arizona's IRC, California's Prop 11/20, and recent court drawn maps? ;-)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


Btw, here's the linky...
You can view the big maps of Democrats' legislative districts here.

Btw, they also propose introducing "nesting" here. This would mean 2 Assembly Districts are drawn completely within 1 Senate District, like how legislative maps currently work in Arizona and Wisconsin.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Nevada Assembly GOP Leader Disses REPUBLICAN Redistricting Plan!
OMG, this keeps getting better! From The LV Sun's always amazing Anjeanette Damon...

Pete Goicoechea furious over Senate Repubican maps. His quote: We got pretty well bent.

Heh. Nevada Republicans are now eating their own over their dummymander! I wonder how Brian Sandoval is now trying to defuse this. So far, this isn't the best week for him. Hehe. ;-)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


National: Trump fading, Romney, Huckabee leading GOP field
http://www.scribd.com/full/541...

Cain edges out Pawlenty, Bachmann and Daniels.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


well it is fox
they could certainly release this in an attempt to derail trump.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Not really fading, just statistical noise......
Republican sample sizes were 322 for this poll and 344 for the previous, those are high margins of error.  For this one it was 6%, certainly at least 5% for the previous.

Trump "dropped" from 11% to 8%, that's too small with samples this small to say he's dropped at all.

The only thing these Fox polls tell us is that Romney and Huckabee still benefit for having come in 2nd and 3rd, respectively, in the 2008 Prez nomination chase, and Palin still retains enough residual support for 3rd place after having been the VP nominee.

In other words, all this polling is based solely on previously having been on voters' radar screens.
I do hope Huckabee runs to kill off Pawlenty.  And I hope Palin, too, runs, so Romney basically gets squeezed from a divided field and everyone who doesn't want him going to someone else.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
That's after Rasmussen
also released a poll showing Trump in 1st, agreeing with the other recent polls by CNN and PPP.  Fox looks like a clear outlier here.

[ Parent ]
and wow
just check out the other questions in that poll:

Do you like [Donald Trump's] straight talk and the message he sends to the world?

Do you think [Barack Obama] has been trying to hide something about his upbringing and past?

just...ugh.


[ Parent ]
W....T....F


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Fair and balanced


24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
"Straight talk"?
Didn't all those jokes about McCain finally kill that phrase off?  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
That's where Fox poll bias is, their methodthology isn't damned yet......
One thing a lot of people overlook is that Fox has changed pollsters a few times the past couple years.

They used to go with Opinion Dynamics, and Marc Blumenthal vouched for their Fox polls back then.

Then they switched to Rasmussen which is to polling what the National Enquirer is to news.

Now they go with two firms I'm not familiar with, one R and one D.  Too soon to conclude anything, since there have been no actual elections against which to test their results.

But where Fox has been consistent has been in inflammatory or otherwise loaded choices of questions.  That's Fox's decision, it's always the client and not the pollster who decides what questions to poll.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Irony
I doubt msot of you know or care, but there's a move on in PA and maybe you've already read this, but I find it uber-ironic.

A Pennsylvania State Senator from suburban Philly was pulled over after a motorist reported he was waving a gun at him.  The Senator is co-sponsor of a "somewhat controversila" bill to expand gun/self-defense rights to people anywhere, including their cars.  So this is gun control that just simply makes sense LOL

http://www.philly.com/philly/b...


Oh, I remember that douchebag
he won a special election by a pretty large margin. Which is a poor judgment on the voters of his district apparently.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
The important thing is
He was able to drive and threaten motorists with guns, I think we all feel safer knowing that.

[ Parent ]

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