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SSP Daily Digest: 4/28

by: DavidNYC

Thu Apr 28, 2011 at 1:16 PM EDT


Senate:

FL-Sen: George LeMieux is unsurprisingly trying to distance himself from the label "Charlie Crist Republican," but all I can say is... good luck with that. The Miami Herald has a lengthy look at just how close the two men were, and while Crist himself won't say a word against LeMieux, other former staffers are more than happy to detail just how tight their working relationship was.

MA-Sen: Hey, Richie Neal: Shut the fuck up. Seriously. What is it with Democratic congressmen from Massachusetts who love to crack out of turn? First Barney Frank, and now this crap. And yeah, you'll have to click the link if you want to know what I'm worked up about.

TX-Sen: Over at Burnt Orange Report, Karl-Thomas Musselman, a long-time friend of SSP, has a good piece about Democrats' flawed strategies in Texas statewide races over the last decade, and how Team Blue should approach things differently going forward.

Gubernatorial:

IA-Gov: In a way, this might be the roughest "do-over" poll of all. Former Dem Gov. Chet Culver lost by double digits last fall, the worst performance of any incumbent governor, yet even he now beats Terry Branstad 48-46 in a hypothetical PPP rematch.

PA-Gov: GOP Gov. Tom Corbett's disapproval rating has soared in the past couple of months. He was at 39-11 in February, and is now at 39-37, according to Quinnipiac. I guess this means not a single new person in the state of PA grew to approve of Corbett in two months!

House:

AZ-06, AZ-Sen: It's getting hard to keep track of what Republican Russell Pearce's plans are. The author of Arizona's notorious immigration law supposedly was out of the running for the open Senate seat, was heavily talked up for the open 6th CD, then was talked down for it, and is now saying he's leaving both doors open. He says he wants to stay on through the end of the 2012 legislative session, though, and Arizona has a resign-to-run law, so who knows.

On the other hand, House Speaker Kirk Adams just announced that he will resign from the legislature, which can only mean he's gearing up for a run in the 6th. (We've mentioned his name a couple of times before as a possibility.) It's going to be a crowded GOP primary, as the field already includes ex-Rep. Matt Salmon (who used to hold this seat, more or less) and former state Senate majority leader Chuck Gray.

IA-04: These are statewide numbers, but still interesting: Steve King is the least-popular member of Iowa's congressional delegation, with 27-34 favorables. Christie Vilsack, meanwhile, is at 38-23. Certainly these scores within the new fourth district would look different, but unless there is some wild base of support for King in northwest Iowa, I can't see how you wouldn't prefer to have Vilsack's numbers.

NC-11: Asheville City Councilman Cecil Bothwell says he'll challenge Rep. Health Shuler in the Democratic primary next year. Shuler, thanks to his vote against healthcare reform, took just 61% in a primary last year against Aixa Wilson, who did not even file any FEC reports.

ND-AL: With a Rick Berg run for Senate looking likely, people are starting to look at filling his at-large House seat. On the Republican side, state House Majority Leader Al Carlson said he's considering a race.  Other possible names, according to the linked piece, are state Sen. Tony Grindberg and Tax Commissioner Cory Fong. I wonder if PSC Commish Brian Kalk might slide down from the Senate race, too.

NV-02: Oh well, I can't always be right! Sharron Angle shot down an unsourced rumor in the LVRJ that she'd run as an independent in the special election to replace Dean Heller if she isn't chosen as the GOP nominee. (She won't be.)

NY-13: Now it's Mike Grimm's turn to tell his side of the story about his instantly notorious nightclub incident from 1999. Meanwhile, NYC Public Advocate Bill DeBlasio is calling on the NYPD and DoJ to release their records from their investigations of the matter. Not really sure why DeBlas, of all people, is inserting himself into this one, except perhaps to try to take a GOP scalp as he eyes the 2013 mayoral race.

OR-01: Here's another interesting bit of sub-text to the whole David Wu saga: Nike. The sneaker company has apparently never forgiven Wu for his vote against a bill that would have expanded trade with China back in 2000, and Nike's chairman endorsed Republican Rob Cornilles last year. (The company also donated to him via their PAC.) It'll probably be easier to get rid of Wu in the Democratic primary, though, so Nike may decide to get involved yet again.

DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 4/28
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Richard Neal
has always been a douchebag. Pro-life, voted for DOMA, typical MA conservadem. Honestly, there's not that much of a difference between him and Stephen Lynch.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


Here's one difference...
http://clerk.house.gov/evs/200...

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
Didn't say there was no difference
the point is that Neal's still much douchier than what we can get out of a Democrat in Massachusetts.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Plus Menino
It's not even just him and Barney Frank. Thomas Menino publically said a while back that Brown was "unbeatable".

[ Parent ]
Frank has never said that.
And I don't care what Menino has to say.  Maybe he was just voicing that Brown would be harder to beat than they thought.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
About Neal...
I agree he should shut up, but in his defense he may be trying to subtly encourage a tea party challenge to Brown. Neal's rhetoric about Brown moving away from the hardline conservative views that helped him energize his base a year ago might make the crazies more angry than they already are with the senator. And although I think any challenge to him in a Republican primary would have almost no chance of success, it might make him move too far to the right for the general election with Obama at the top of the ticket.

Male, 20; living in MN-6 (unfortunately), born NJ-7

There is no way that Brown will be primaried...
And if he was, he certainly wouldn't lose as Republicans know they pulled a fast one in Massachusetts and if Brown is re-elected in 2012 he'll probably be in that seat for 25 years.  

Who really screwed things up is Coakley, but also Patrick for naming a place holder.  If he would have named Capuano he'd be the Senator right now and Brown would be back in obscurity.   Hell if he had named Coakley she'd probably be Senator.  However Patrick worried more about his re-election and didn't want to piss off any factions.

I can see where Frank is coming from as Setti Warren is a bad candidate.  However Neal waxing poetic about Brown is brutal because he'd going to be re-elected on the falsehoods that he is a moderate unless the eventual Dem candidate can get his vote record to stick to him.

Dems need to find a likeable guy but with the votes to draw a stark comparison.  Brown will look to make it about personality again - so Dems need an equally likeable, charismatic guy.  


[ Parent ]
Dems must make it about policy.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Its time to appoint Brown to something
Ambassador to Aruba? He has a home there already.

[ Parent ]
Unfortunately
I doubt he'd accept.

[ Parent ]
Can't the Obama administration just
announce that he's accepted something before they even ask him, kind of like how the Bartlet administration announced than Sen. Seth Gillette (Ed Begley, Jr.) was becoming part of some entitlement committee, a position that he would have otherwise turned down? I mean, if it worked on television, why wouldn't it work in real life?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Has President Obama nominated a new SecCommerce yet?
Brown is more liberal than Judd Gregg, and would fill the other "bipartisan" seat soon to be vacated by Bob Gates.

[ Parent ]
Keep up the West Wing references..
and I think we can be friends, haha.

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42

[ Parent ]
The optics woud be much worse in real life than on a TV show
Brown's response wouldn't be "sure, I'll do that," it'd be "no, I didn't say I'd do that."

[ Parent ]
The placeholder
To be fair to Gov. Patrick, the interim-Senator law was passed with the unwritten understanding that they appointee would not seek the Senate seat. That's what the Kennedy family was lobbying for, and what Ted apparently implied in his letter calling for a change in succession laws.

I don't doubt that if Patrick had appointed Capuano or Coakley, they would still be the Senator (maybe Coakley would have lost, but less likely), but such a move would have enraged the state party. Most of the power players were split between the two major candidates, and everyone wanted to see a fair fight primary.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


[ Parent ]
To unseat Brown...
The Democrats need to point out that he wasnt just an average joe who drove a truck... that truck hauled hay for his daughter's horse. He wasn't an average guy from Wrentham, he was more than well-to-do. They also need a democrat who can really stand up to and debate Brown, unlike Coakley whom I credit for being terrible in debates.

[ Parent ]
They're not gonna be Brown on personality
They need to beat him on Policy.

[ Parent ]
Yeah
Its not likehe Mass Dems are some poor working class guys who've never seen money before.  Eevn if they were, Brown is clearly the least monied of MA's last 3 Senators (Brown, Kenendy, Kerry).

[ Parent ]
Capuano
He lives in a Somerville two-family

[ Parent ]
I know this is nitpicky
but Culver lost by 9.6%, 52.8 to 43.2. Not quite double digits.

I have
a funny feeling the Dems in the Massachusetts house delegation want Scott Brown to be reelected for some odd reason.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

same
Probably because no one wants to leave the House delegation. My guess is whomever is forced out after redistricting runs a half-hearted campaign.

22, male, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Whoever it will be
will do it full-heartedly because they want to stay in Congress (should a congressman get nominated).

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Why leave the House...
When you could keep your House seat while running for the Kerry opening in early 2013.  

[ Parent ]
Kerry isn't going anywhere.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Who's going to replace Clinton as SOS?
Kerry sems to be the current favorite.  

[ Parent ]
It doesn't have to be a Senator.
If Lugar loses, I'm sure he'd be a top pick.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I can't see it.
SOS would be too high profile a posting to put a Republican in.  Even if PBO and Luger agree on a lot when it comes to foreign policy,  Kerry has been a good soldier for the Obama Administration on foreign and domestic issues and him not getting the SOS gig would be seen as a huge snub.  

[ Parent ]
PBO?


22, male, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Haha
That's a new acronym I haven't seen for President Barack Obama.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

[ Parent ]
I've never seen that before
But I assume it means "President Barack Obama"

Male, 26, MA-08 (hometown MI-06). Independent progressive, Christian.

[ Parent ]
ah


22, male, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Lugar was (and is) a powerful figure
in nuclear disarmament and treaties.  His expertise on foreign policy matches that of the late Senator Fulbright.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
There is politics in the decision though...
Only way I can see Kerry not getting it is if the Senate is 50-50 and taking Kerry out can't be risked given the Brown re-election.  Which is a real possibility given the Conrad retirement, Nelson in trouble and Montana, Missouri and Virginia toss-ups.  

[ Parent ]
IF
Brown is re-elected.  Also, NV is in play.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Of course.
Sen. Lugar is 79 yrs old now, would be 81 by the time Sec. Clinton would retire from the State Department.  If Lugar was to lose his race, I could absolutely see him tapped by President Obama as a senior advisor or special envoy.  

[ Parent ]
Lugar said no to being in Obama's administration back in 2008
,and he's getting pretty old. If he's primaried, he'll go into retirement and we'll probably never see him again, unless Obama wanted to make him an ambassador or something. But definitely not SoS.  

[ Parent ]
Is Clinton retiring?
I assumed she's get SecDef after Gates resigned, but now that's going to CIA Director Leon Panetta, it appears. So in this scenario, does Clinton retire?

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42

[ Parent ]
Yeah, she has said she will retire completely...
Early in PBO's next term, so early 2013.  

[ Parent ]
I actually like Samantha Power's odds
I don't think it'll be Sen. Kerry, but I could be wrong.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Panetta as SecDef
I don't know if this is a temporary gig for him though

22, male, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I actually meant for State.


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
I don't think so.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Canada-PM: NDP surge continues
http://www.theglobeandmail.com...

Nanos has a daily tracking poll, on a 3-day cycle. Currently, it's 37/30/22 (Cons/NDP/Lib) nationally, with the NDP at 43% in Quebec (up 6 from yesterday).

The surge is serious enough that the Globe and Mail (which has endorsed Harper), has a brief on a potential NDP cabinet...., ref http://www.theglobeandmail.com...


Liberals and NDPers must unite in coalition.
They need to put aside their petty differences and finally allow majority rule.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Really
the Liberals just need to go the way of the Progressive Conservatives. They've become such a joke, they're going to have a long recovery from the failure of leadership that Dion and Iggy have perpetrated. A Liberal-NDP merger might make some voters on the center-right move to the Conservatives, but it would give them a much better shot at governing.

[ Parent ]
How else do they expect to prevent another minority government?


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
How do you mean?
Currently the center-left vote is split between the Liberals, NDP, Greens and to an extent, the BQ. That gives the Conservatives a chance at winning a majority of seats while only getting about 40% of the popular vote. A Liberal-NDP merger would cut out a lot of that vote-splitting, and make the threshold higher; probably something around 45-47%. You'll always have the threat of a minority government while the Bloc is around, since they soak up a bunch of seats in Quebec, but a merging of the parties would help to cut down on the Liberal and NDP losing seats they should win but don't because they both have candidates running.

[ Parent ]
A lot of Liberal Voters Don't Like the NDP
There is a very strong fiscal conservative wing of the Liber party that would go Tory in such a scenerio, mostly concentrated in Ontario.

While a merger would help the Left, the polls that were done last year generally had them leading the Tories 44-42 or so, as opposed to 35-27-19. So it would not be a slam dunk.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent


[ Parent ]
A merged Liberal/NDP party
couldn't occupy the space of both in the electorate.  In all probability you'd see a significant detachment to the Conservatives (which would probably make them less conservative) and probably the Green Party taking some of the NDP's former vote as the merged party becomes less liberal than its more left-leaning constituent element.

[ Parent ]
Oh, c'mon.
The NDP's current wave is based pretty much entirely on the popularity of Jack Layton, and could quite easily recede in short order.  It's happened many times before (to cite a Quebec example, the ADQ; or the old Progressive Party in the 1920s).

It is, nonetheless, poised to be a major shakeup of the political scene.


[ Parent ]
The NDP surge will have one effect...
It likely keeps the Conservatives out of a majority government.  

[ Parent ]
TX redistricting: proposed plan splits Travis County 4 ways
http://www.statesman.com/blogs...

"U.S. Rep. Lloyd Doggett, D-Austin, provided the map this morning and said he believes it is the map that congressional Republicans, including the two GOP members who represent part of Austin, have submitted to leaders of the Texas Legislature."

map is here:

http://alt.coxnewsweb.com/shar...

and Travis County close-up here:

http://alt.coxnewsweb.com/shar...

it's ugly as hell and I have a suspicion it wouldn't hold up in court, though someone who knows more about the history of TX gerrymandering should weigh in.


That is one tough map to read


"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
Is There a Specific Reason It Might Fail in Court?
As federal election cases in TX & LA would eventually end up in the Fifth Circuit, the most right-wing circuit in the country, I have trouble seeing a Republican gerrymander knocked down. But I'd be delighted to hear how that might come about.

[ Parent ]
VRA, maybe
Don't have access to redistricting app here, but... I'm not sure it's a big success on Hispanic VRA seats.  TX-23, which is protected, looks diluted a bit by its move northward, and 3 of the 4 new seats are definitely not VRA.

Would have to look at TX-25,which they tried to use to replace TX-23 last time and the Supreme Court overruled, and TX-35, which I assume is drawn for Farenthold.  I don't know enough about the population in the TX-35 area to guess its demographics.


[ Parent ]
Initial reaction... wow
That map is not nearly as effective as what I thought they were going to do. For example, they're playing with fire in TX-31... I thought for sure they were going to take Killeen out of the district and throw it into Conaway's or Smith's. I drew one that would have been far more effective, IMHO. I'm going to write a diary about this...

There's my plan. The next Hispanic majority seat in Dallas and Farenthold's seat  are extremely similar. They're going to have to draw a new Hispanic seat in the valley, this won't pass VRA muster. Also, I'm suprised that McCaul wasn't drawn into Montgomery Country... McCaul's seat can't be that safe now...

Photobucket

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan


[ Parent ]
Doggett in 25?
Unless I am missing something, I still see Doggett winning this 25.  It's now much more Hispanic, but he's won a Hispanic seat before.  In fact, the seat looks a like the one I drew for him here:
Photobucket

[ Parent ]
The hell with What's the Matter with Kansas?
What the fuck is the matter with Massachusetts? Between dissolv--er, "limiting" bargaining rights to establish themselves as just to the right of Scott Walker, and the fawning over Scott Brown. Anyway Thanks for the post DavidNYC.

The State House speaker leads the House like sheep.
He controls committee assignments and seniority and everything to do with power in the House.  However, the State Senate will probably be a good block against this bad idea, and Patrick has sounded less than keen about what the House passed.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
How many
people voted for it only because the Speaker wanted them to but are really personally against it?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
IN-Sen/Gov(?)
Tim Roemer resigned the India ambassadorship today, citing "personal, professional, and family reasons."

It may well just be burnout or a desire to cash-out his connections for a lucrative corporate position. But any chance this means he's looking at, say, a Senate bid in Indiana?


Interesting.
I wonder if he's looking to cash in given college is damn expensive and he has two heading to college.  I think he'd be a top recruit to take a run at Governor or Sneate.  Luger gets through a primary he'll be impossible to beat though, but Roemer vs Pence would be really interesting.  

[ Parent ]
IL10
Sounds like he might be too far left to hold that seat unless it's made far more blue. I'd expect other candidates to announce for that one.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
It's D+6
And it certainly will get better, but it's not like it's a R+4 or something were a Blue Dog would need to run.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
favorite son
Its PVI is distorted by Obama's favorite-son run in 2008. A hardcore liberal might be able to squeak by in 2012 with Obama at the top of the ticket again, but it's probably more like D+4 in any other year and I think they would need a mainstream type (e.g. Hoyer) to hold it.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
IN-Gov: Gregg announces exploratory campaign
Also in Indiana news, Howey Politics had this item about John Gregg speaking at a Washington Township (Indianapolis) Jefferson-Jackson Dinner.

Obviously, the big news is that he announced an exploratory campaign. But at least from the text, he seemed to be taking confronting Pence head-on, though granted it was a friendly - and liberal - audience.

Gregg turned to abortion. "I want to share with you something you may already know," he began. "I'm in the minority of our party on a social issue dealing with choice. I am one of those pro-life Democrats. The great thing about our party is we invite everybody in regardless of where we are on that issue. We agree on about 85 percent of the issues. But they want to talk about that issue. And now they want to talk about Planned Parenthood. The problem in America isn't Planned Parenthood, it's unplanned parenthood."

The crowd of about 100 laughed and applauded.

"It's unplanned parenthood," Gregg repeated, taking aim at U.S. Rep. Mike Pence, his probable opponent. "For those who don't know, have you ever looked and seen about Planned Parenthood? Have you seen what they do? They do health screenings, birth control, counseling. They do cancer screenings for women and men, a preventative measure. I'm going on seven years of being cancer free due to early detection."

"Frankly," Gregg continued, "I'm insulted they want to take away preventative health care from people. That's just not right. We don't do that. These are for people who can't afford to go anywhere else. That's not an opportunity. We need to be concentrating on jobs. But they don't want to do that because it's the same old wedge issue that they've had for years. They don't want a lot of these wedge issues to go away."

Asked if he would push anti-abortion laws, Gregg said that as speaker he did not hand down a single abortion bill. "The U.S. Supreme Court has made it the law of the land."

Gregg talked about the GOP "attacks" on unions and public education.  

"They want to make it a Right to Work state," he said. "They are settling old scores. They were doing the wedge, the fear, the divide, the conquer."

As for public education, Gregg appeared to evolve.  "We've been a little lax at time," he said of Democrats. "I've got to be candid.  Some of our public school systems have some major problems and we've probably been a little wrong not to admit that and not to look at ways to solve that. I truly think we have been. But they want to dismantle it with a voucher system and solve it with a charter system. They only serve 2 percent of the students. We need to concetrate on education. We need to take that great teacher and we need to empower them. We need to get them more involved. We've got to help the poor teachers. And you know what? If they can't get better they need to go somewhere else."

Then Gregg described a culture of fear. "They always do fear, they always do wedge. They demonize us. We're not going to let them do that anymore. I'm not going to let them define me and I'm not going to let them define you."

"You want to talk about a social issue? Here in Marion County tonight there are going to be 25,000 kids who go to bed hungry," Gregg said. "That's a social issue. You know another social issue? Nine percent unemployment. They aren't doing anything about it. The next governor needs to be working with all the people in the state. He needs to make jobs No. 1. The second thing is jobs. The third thing is jobs. We've got to work together. We need to have a big table."

"They want to talk about radical. I'll tell you what, I'm radically reasonable. I really am. That's what we all need to be. We've got to work together. The next governor ought to unite us, not divide us." He noted that during two of his six years as House Speaker, there was a 50/50 split. "For every bill that passed out of the House, we had to have at least one Republican," Gregg explained. "How did we get it? We worked together. We worked together and we can work together. We've got to find our common ground and be radically reasonable with this."

"I am convinced I can help people get together. I've given it some serious thought and I will announce in May an exploratory committee for governor. I'm excited about it," Gregg said.

Indianapolis Democrats were, too.

Link: http://howeypolitics.com/main....

Also - THAT's what John Gregg looks like? That 'stach is straight out of 1905 or something. Impressive.


Wow, Gregg is real good on the issues.
He rightfully dismisses the culture wars as being a distraction from real issues.  Kinda reminds me of the basic platform of the MN Independence Party.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
There's a world of difference
between someone who describes themselves as pro-life but who doesn't make it the only thing they talk about and who isn't in your face about it like Rick Santorum is. For some people, it is the biggest issue, but for most people, it's one of many things to consider.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Great on issues, and rocks that 'stache.
If I ever run for office as a super progressive far lefty, I'll be sure to acquire a Civil War era mustache such as the one Gregg rocks right there. Should score some optics points with social conservatives.

[ Parent ]
Also makes him look old.
I had to find that he's only 56yo - seeing that pic made me think he'd be too old to make a serious run.  

[ Parent ]
Running for office: it's the right thing to do.


[ Parent ]
Good read.
It's interesting that he doesn't shy away from his position on abortion but instead takes a more "We'll have to agree to disagree"-type stance.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
IA-04: PPP tea leaves on polarization......
The caveat necessarily applies that what is true statewide is not automatically true in IA-04.

But at least IA-04 is 39 of the state's 99 counties and 25% of the population, and went about 5 points more Republican than the state as a whole in 2008, so we can still glean something from the PPP crosstabs to some extent.

The big thing I'm interested in is how polarizing King and Vilsack are.  Matt Strawn tried to make a big deal in his spin on Vilsack's candidacy that she'll motivate higher GOP activism and turnout, so it's worth putting to the test.

But, alas, at least statewide Christie's favorability not only is far better than King's overall, but also not that bad with Republicans.  She's at 15-37, with 48% "not sure."  That screams out "blank slate," not "motivating for the GOP base."  King, in contrast, is at an awful 5-59 with Democrats, and just 36% "not sure."  A far worse cross-party image.  Among indies, less of a split, but still a clear Vilsack advantage, at 29-25 positive compared to King's 26-32 negative; "not sure" is high for both with indies, in the 40s.

Also looking at age crosstabs, while these are generally the most unreliable crosstabs in any poll due to very small subsamples, it's worth noting that Vilsack has positive favorability in every bracket including a terrific 40-26 with seniors (65+), while King is negative with every bracket including seniors.  Iowa is an old state, and the senior vote is a bigger deal than in many states, even in a Presidential year.

I didn't think it would hold water that Christie Vilsack is in any way "polarizing," and sure enough she's not if this poll is right.  Tom Vilsack was a popular Governor and left office on good terms with Iowans.  Christie has no worries.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


Can Tom Vilsack campaign for Christie?
Or as Cabinet Secretary he's supposed to be non-partisan.  I mean the name speaks for itself, but having Tom stumping for Christie would be a definite benefit if he could.  

[ Parent ]
It's generally the departments that deal with foreign affairs that demur on campaigning
Defense, State, etc. I can't remember if any of Bush's cabinet members campaigned for Republican candidates.

[ Parent ]
The obvious analogy
would be McConnell - Chao. Quick googling turned up this on McConnell campaign website:

U.S. Labor Secretary Elaine Chao is on the campaign trail for her husband, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. Chao made a stop in Paducah Thursday where she spoke at the Women to Women Luncheon at the Carson Center. ...


30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

[ Parent ]
The problem is, that won't stop the Republicans
from acting as if that were a huge offense to the normal, non-partisan way of running the government. We'll see all sorts of breathless pearl clutching on Fox News about this, all of which will likely forget that Chao did that for her husband.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Nevada GOP releases redistricting maps
http://www.nevadarepublicanleg...

Tough to see details on map but it looks like the GOP is going for a safe 2-2 split.

Dems to release their maps tonight.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan


2-1-1
More like a safe 2-1-1. The Reno district will end up lean R but swingy under any realistic map. To get a safe 2-2 you would have to link the rurals and the red parts of Reno with some of the red parts of Vegas for one district, and cherry-pick all the other red parts of Vegas for the other.  

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
I came up with a pretty similar map a few months ago

Intended to be 2-2 (or 2-1-1 depending on how Washoe develops over the next decade). And that was without any partisan data.


[ Parent ]
Not really...
Seriously, your map looks awfully clean compared to that hot mess coming from The Nevada GOP! I think your map has a better chance of passing The Legislature than that.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
They're trying to screw Horsford...
That looks obvious with this map. It rips the Latino heart of North Las Vegas out of NV-01, then merges it into this Frankenstein NV-04 creation that has tentacles swinging down to The East Side. NV-01, in turn, becomes a mangled mess of a gerrymander that cobbles together parts of North Las Vegas, Summerlin, Spring Valley, and Old Henderson. It's obvious they're doing this to inflame Steven Horsford, as he'd be left with pretty much no options. I guess they're hoping they can lure Ruben Kihuen and other Latino Democrats with this map, but so far it sounds like they're refusing to take the bait. John Lee, OTOH, is a wild card who may flirt with this map just to piss all over Horsford (especially since he still thinks he has a shot at Congress himself).

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
But they don't have the votes to pass it...
Do they?

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Interesting, they give the finger to Heck
Well, not that much, but it puts all the Dem-y cow areas with Heck, and makes NV-02 as red as possible.

[ Parent ]
The way NV is now
It's nearly impossible to do a solid 2-2 map.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
That TX article
I've seen that before.  David i think you might owe a hat-tip to our resident Texas optimist "b.j." as I think he's posted comments about that link before :-)

Correct.
I did post that link before--last week, I think, when a few of us were discussing Ricardo Sanchez and his potential candidacy.

The Burnt Orange blog does raise an interesting question: is it better to hedge slightly when running a candidate, or does it make more sense to double down on one's beliefs and try to convince people? It's usually not an either/or thing, but which end do we emphasize?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
Both
It all depends on the candidate.  Bill White wasn't going to be that popular with new Hispanic voters, at least not enough to drag new voters to polls, but he was going to get the floor to 40+%.  

Add in more base/beliefs-oriented people to the ticket further down and maybe they can inspire new voters.

I'm still a believer in starting small but until Texans feel the same, what can we do.  The statewide strategy worries me as it delays having even a viable candidate who also is beliefs/oriented.  Bill White was "electable" but didn't get elected.  Any person storng on beliefs probably is an elected office holder of consequence in Texas so they aren't "electable".  And around and around we go.

It seems right now, due to our thin bench, we have to choose one or the other.  If we start local, I think we get to a point where we get to choose someone who is electable and strong on the issues and inspires new voters.  Without a strong bench to give us choices we continue this either/or world.


[ Parent ]
Texas State House Map Passed
The Texas State House map made it through its own body.  There's a pretty good case for retrogression in Harris County, and Dallas County just looks crazy.

PA-Gov
QPac's conclusions seem a lot more sensible than with equal approve./disapprove's for Corbett, though the trend is awful.

The detailed questions paint the paradoxical question.  People don't want tax hikes, believe budgets/deficits are serious issues, but also don't want spending cuts.  Of coruse we knew all of this already, its just hasn't previously been the #1 issue in so many states like it has been in 2011.


NY-13 DeBlasio thought about running for this seat in 2006...
So I guess he still has an interest in this district. At least he probably figures beating up Grimm a little wont hurt him if he ever decides to pull the trigger and carpetbag to SI again.

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If De Blasio runs for Mayor, Democrats are probably stuck with Bill Thompson again...
De Blasio and Weiner (and, if they run, Stringer and Quinn) will split the white liberal vote and Thompson, likely the only black candidate in the field, will run up a crazy margin among his base.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Thompson may still win anyway
Weiner lost a lot of backing around here as of late, and Thompson impressed a lot of people with his last campaign, have no idea why, it wasn't great, but he nearly knocked Bloomy off.  

[ Parent ]
Thompson's actually rather popular among whites, too
So, yeah, he definitely starts this as the front-runner. His one downside, at least in comparison to Anthony Weiner, is he's hardly a sterling fundraiser. He's definitely a safe, competent, affable figure, far better than Green or Ferrer, but I imagine he'd still have an uphill battle vs. Ray Kelly. If Kelly passes, though, it's probably Thompson's to lose. And I think he'd be a decent mayor. At this point, I think a lot of New Yorkers are ready to take a chance on another Democrat.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Kelly probably beats anyone
but if he was to run, he'd run as an Independent.  

[ Parent ]
I doubt DiBlasio would run for it...
...he's pretty dead set on Mayor.  And it's not exactly an easy district to win and he's at a distinct disadvantage being from Brooklyn.  Plus right now the nomination is McMahon's to lose.  And if he wanted to be a congressman why not run in 2006 since Harrison wasn't exactly the most formidible opponent.

However if McMahon doesn't run it isn't DiBlasio but DiBlasio's Staten Island liason Mark Murphy who would have first right of refusal assuming no Staten Island electeds want to go for it.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...


[ Parent ]
just keeping his options open
1) Remember we dont know what district will look like next year. It could have more Brooklyn in it than it does now.

2) if he runs for Mayor and loses he's out of a job and might look to run for congress in 14.

So he loses nothing by taking potshots at Grimm although I think there is really nothing to this club/cop/fbi story.  

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[ Parent ]
de Blasio lives no where near it
He lives in Park Slope, is an unabashed liberal, and has a black wife...no way he wins a Staten Island district.

Though he'd make an awesome mayor, I'd give him that.  


[ Parent ]
Ideally, I'd like to see Bothwell in Congress rather than Shuler...
but there's no way this district will elect a liberal atheist.

25, Male, Eurasian American, Democrat, VA-11 (current residence), VA-09 (college)

Virginia redistricting: Ben Tribbett of NLS tweets...
...that he's seen the new compromise state Senate map, and...wait for it...he says it "could be electoral disaster" for Democrats.

No surprise there, Ben meritlessly said much the same about the first map.

Ben tweets that the new map is one where McDonnell won 29 of the 40 districts.

This is where I get angry at him, for intentional dishonesty.  McDonnell won 30 of the 40 districts under the current map!  Ben conveniently leaves out that this compromise map is actually one better for us.

I'll wait and see what more honest analyses say about it.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


NLS despises it?! It must mean...
that Arlington is not packed-up the way Tribett (and the VA GOP) want it.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
lolz


22, male, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Looking Grim for Grimm nt


50, straight white male, Democrat(Dan Boren/Gene Taylor 2012!), AL-7(born in AL-5)


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