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ND-Sen, ND-AL: Rick Berg Reportedly "Likely" to Run for Senate

by: DavidNYC

Wed Apr 27, 2011 at 12:26 AM EDT


From Nathan Gonzales:

Rep. Rick Berg is very seriously considering a run for Senate in North Dakota and is even likely to make the race, according to sources close to the freshman Congressman.

According to the GOP sources, the Republican had no plans to seek higher office until Sen. Kent Conrad's (D) decision to retire and subsequent encouragement from supporters in the state forced Berg to re-evaluate his options. ...

Some of Berg's former colleagues in the state Legislature are circulating and signing a letter encouraging him to run. The letter is also signed by state Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem, who was a potential Senate candidate, and other statewide officials.

Berg was just elected to the House last November, but he'd instantly be the front-runner if he got into the race. This news might also help explain why Public Service Commissioner Brian Kalk's fundraising was so abysmal: If powerful Republicans have been working to get Berg in the race, then it makes sense that they'd snub Kalk, even though he was the only person who'd expressed real interest in the race so far.

As Nathan notes, though the state does officially hold primaries, the GOP nomination is really decided, Minnesota-style, at a party convention, where Berg would have the inside track. (He beat former GOP state chair Kevin Cramer at last year's convention.) So it's hard to see Kalk (or anyone else) sticking it out if Berg gets in. And Dems still don't have a candidate. This is going to be a very tough race for us if Berg makes the leap, but of course it will open up his at-large House seat at the same time.
DavidNYC :: ND-Sen, ND-AL: Rick Berg Reportedly "Likely" to Run for Senate
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ND-Sen, ND-AL: Rick Berg Reportedly "Likely" to Run for Senate | 67 comments
Maybe, maybe not
Resisting the urge to fight the last battle, I think there's every reason to believe that Kent Conrad at least has an even shot at keeping his seat against Berg.
But Kent Conrad is retiring
Did you not know that?
[ Parent ]
Err, crud, I forgot
I think that's a serious mistake.

[ Parent ]
So why is Conrad retiring?
I had assumed it was because he had a tough re-election fight. Then I had hoped maybe the Dems had somebody in mind that could benefit from a Presidential year or something.  Dems roll over completely in ND, with Dorgan and Conrad retiring rather than fighting it out.

I did write about my Phil Jackson theory recently here.  

Conrad's best friends (Dorgan & Pomeroy are gone)
and he wants to do something else.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Not all of his best friends are gone.
He still has his cute doggie, Dakota.
http://twitpic.com/87t51

Still, it's disappointing.  Conrad would have a strong chance of winning next year and I cannot find it in me to not be highly disapproving of his decision.  ND has mostly gone back to its Republican roots in terms of delegation.  I just hope the pendulum swings back by the end of the decade.  Heck, we could have our first real chance next year on the ND-AL side if Berg does run for Senate.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
? First Chance?
Pomeroy held that seat for ages.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
First chance to win it back.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Conrad deserves the right to retire whenever he wants.
nt

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
The way I interpreted it
is that it's similar reasons to why Evan Bayh retired last cycle - not wanting to face a close election and the possibility of losing.
[ Parent ]
There's no evidence that had anything to do with Bayh's retirement......
There's no indication Bayh was worried about losing.

All signs pointed to his simply being done being a Senator, a "been there, done that" feeling, combined with frustration about the Senate's polarization and partisanship.  Of course, his complaints about the Senate were b.s., as a Senator he was part of the problem, if he thought there was one.  But that's beside the point, which is what he perceived, not whether his perspective was right.

Regarding his chances of reelection, his job approvals were solid, he was crushing all potential rivals in all polling, and he had massive Harry Reid-ish amounts of campaign dollars to spend.  He wasn't worried about winning.  He just didn't want to be a Senator for another 6 years.

Also, in hindsight, based on his recent career choices, one can surmise he wanted to get rich.  Another 6 years in the Senate wasn't going to do that.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
We'll never know for sure
We'll never know for sure if Bayh would have had a very tough race or not. Remember that Russ Feingold, in deep blue Wisconsin, looked pretty safe up until the last few months too. And we saw how that ended up.

Indiana is a deep red state; Bayh (and his father) are probably the only two Democrats who have had consistent statewide success there in recent decades. Just because Evan Bayh led other opponents convincingly when he dropped out in February doesn't mean that wouldn't have changed by the time November 2 arrived.  

[ Parent ]
Your example of Feingold proves my point more than yours......
As awful as last year was, Feingold and Lincoln are the only incumbents who lost, and Lincoln's loss was telegraphed in polling more a year before the election.

So Feingold was the exception that proved the rule.

The point is Bayh was not worried about reelection, we know that.  There were no signs he could be beaten, so that wouldn't have been on his mind.  There's zero evidence the possibility of defeat ever crossed his mind.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
"Only incumbents who lost'
That's a little disingenuous. Dodd would have certainly lost had he run for reelection, and it's obvious that Dorgan retired out of fear of losing.  

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
You can't really use North Dakota as an example
John Hoeven was (and is) an absurdly popular politician, there isn't any reason to believe that Dorgan would have lost to a second-stringer this time around, even in 2010.

As for Dodd, using him doesn't really prove your point either, he was an incumbent with some scandals going on (not to mention his decision to move his family to Iowa). And even then, it's not a given that he would have lost to someone like Linda McMahon.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
I didn't really have a point
other than that the statement "Lincoln and Feingold were the only incumbents who lost," while true, isn't really the whole story.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
Deep blue? Deep red? Not so much.
Indiana is about R +6 at the presidential level, and Wisconsin is about D +2 (averaging the results of 2004 and 2008 together). I wouldn't call Indiana "deep red" any more than I'd call Wisconsin "deep blue", especially considering the fact that Obama narrowly won Indiana in 2008 and Kerry nearly lost Wisconsin in 2004. Certainly Indiana is a Republican state, but it's not "deep red", and Wisconsin is a swing state if there ever was one.

Feingold lost because he had never won with a percentage higher than the low 50's since he was first elected in 1992, and was generally a polarizing figure in a swing state in a bad year. There was little difference between him and Barbara Boxer, only Boxer actually IS from a "deep blue" state, and won easily.  

FYI, I live in Indiana.  

[ Parent ]
Feingold
The difference between him and Boxer is that Boxer knows how to win ugly, but Feingold thinks he's Holden Caulfield and that negative campaigning is beneath him. Put her in the Wisconsin race and she would have shredded Ron Johnson, who is far dumber and more ignorant than Carly Fiorina.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
No, she wouldn't have
Russ made some mistakes that certainly cost him a couple of percentage points, but Wisconsin was going red in 2010 by election day based on dynamics that had very little to do with any one person's campaign.
[ Parent ]
maybe
You know the state far better than I do, but I still suspect that with a well-run negative campaign Feingold might have been able to make Johnson toxic like Boxer did to Fiorina, Manchin did to Raese in WV, or Reid did to Angle.  

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
But wasn't Feingold too nice?
I mean, it's better than being too negative, but it did nothing to bring down Johnson's favorables.  Feingold should have hit Johnson for his tenousness on many issues and the fact that Johnson testified against a bill expanding the legal rights of sexually assaulted children.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Oh I agree that Feingold was too nice
and I agree that it cost him at least a couple of percentage points However, the main drivers of this election were:
-A shitty economy being blamed on Democratic incumbents
National antidemocratic mood

If Feingold had run a stronger negative campaign, the election would have been closer, but I suspect he still would have lost. He cetainly wouldn't have "crushed."

[ Parent ]
"Deep blue Wisconsin"?
Really? And are you really comparing Russ Feingold, the guy who has never been completely secure in his senate seat (and has a real holier-than-thou streak regarding fundraising/third party spending) to Evan Bayh, who has always romped and, as DCCyclone noted, had good approvals and such a huge warchest as to be comical?

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Actually,
the real reason Bayh retired had something to do with health issues with one of his sons. It was entirely personal. He just didn't talk about it until after he was out of office.  
[ Parent ]
Thanks, I had never heard that. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
me either, I had no idea.


23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42
[ Parent ]
If he does
then we have a good shot at winning back the House seat.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Is there a chance that Pomeroy
could be induced back into the race now that it's an open seat?

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...
[ Parent ]
I think he's tired, but he has not fully ruled out running.
But there are a handful of strong Dem contenders if he doesn't want to run.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
You say that as if you know something or read something, so...
...please elaborate?

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
To clarify...
...I mean elaborate on Pomeroy contemplating trying to get his seat back, not on other candidates, I don't care about them.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Pomeroy has said thousands of times since the election that he's not that interested, but he'd "never rule out returning to public life."
-

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
The handful of strong Dem contenders (?)
are not that strong. They don't have a statewide profile at all.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
They're not "very strong"
But they do have strength.  Heitkemp was A-G and would have won the governorship had she not gotten breast cancer back in 2000.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I'm hoping that there will be at least a legitimate Democratic candidate
This is one of the states where Democrats need to build up a viable statewide bench and a legitimate candidate who can make a decent showing will go a long way toward accomplishing that.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
Berg hasn't been around
for that long, and there are no indications he's got Hoeven-like stature, so perhaps he'll be easier to beat, either as a Senate candidate or as a House candidate, than some people think. It won't be necessarily easy, of course, but I'm not ready to throw in the towel, not by a long shot.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
We need Heidi Heitkamp
to run. Badly. In any case, while I'm not trying to start another Tester thread, I do have to say I'm not all that upset to see Conrad retire. Unlike Dorgan, or even Johnston, (his other Democratic Dakota colleagues), Conrad was one of the most vocal opponents of most of the progressive agenda, and he did so in a way that came off very bad, (the only one to come worse than he did was Ben Nelson). He wasn't a party player at all.
Speaking of that
Senator Johnson really ought to run again in 2014.  I hope he does.  His health has improved markedly since 2008.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Yep
And he is definitely one of the most underrated Senators on our side. He comes from a red state, but is always there when we need his vote, and never really makes a fuss about anything.

19, gay male, IL-7, MN 4 (college), Dem
[ Parent ]
Conrad wasn't vocal....
...which is what made him so dangerous.  He spoke well of Democratic priorities, but behind the scenes gutted them with his policy prescriptions.  

I don't attribute it with malice on his part.  He only cares about one thing in the world--deficits.  And he just doesn't see or doesn't care about the people behind those spreadsheet numbers.  All he cares about is numbers and that's it--nothing else.

I'm not sad to see him go, either.  This latest budget of his should of his will hurt us for years and decades to come.

[ Parent ]
Since I don't want to get into trouble again...
...and go back to the rules, has Conrad made any suggestions or endorsements of anybody?  He claims to have retired early to help find a new candidate, but is there any word of his assistance in that regard?
[ Parent ]
I didn't mind as much about Conrad
as others. I'm more annoyed at people like Lieberman, Lincoln, Nelson who actually held the bill hostage when they didn't get their way. If Conservadems want to advocate for more moderate bills, that's fine with me, particularly if they're from red states. But when the negotiations are finished and the bill is up to a vote, you better vote with the party. I don't remember Conrad ever threatening to take his ball and go home.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
ND Dem Dream Ticket:
Or at least...not nightmare ticket.

Pomeroy for his old house Seat.  Heidi Heitkamp for Senate.
Maybe switched would work too.  

21,Democrat, NY-02, male

.
Switched would probably work better.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
What do we know about the Democrat-NPLers here?
Jasper Schneider is very young (31), which is great in some ways; if he won and could hold his seat, he could become a Senate institution, plus he would inject some young blood into the Democratic caucus.

I hear Heidi Heitkamp mentioned a lot here, but she's approaching 60 and she hasn't held political office for over 10 years. I dunno.

Realistically, we're probably not gonna hold this seat, but I'd like to see us try.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

Schneider reminds me of Scott Kleeb
Is that a good thing or bad thing?

(Kleeb obviously was running in a much redder state)

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

[ Parent ]
Jasper Schneider
has the added benefit of actually running again for something in a few years and not being thought of as too old. If he loses but still runs a solid, respectable campaign, he could easily be a candidate again in a few years.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
There is nothing
I hate more than political opportunism, which is why I so strongly oppose the nominations of Berg in ND, Mandel in OH, and anyone else who wants to run not half-way(or in Mandel's case, not quarter-way) through their first term. What is this country coming to?

50, straight white male, Democrat(Dan Boren/Gene Taylor 2012!), AL-7(born in AL-5)
same with Hanabusa in HI-Sen
So not her time yet.

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42
[ Parent ]
There's no such thing as anyone's "time," Berg for Senate is fair as is...
...Hanabusa for Senate.

Of course I don't want Berg to win!

My point is there's nothing wrong with running.

Government is not a business, and elected offices are not like your workplace!  There's no seniority, there are no "turns"!

Was it Al Franken's "time" to be a Senator?  Would it ever have been Al Franken's time?

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
It wasn't Obama's turn in 2008
But he proved to be the best candidate by far.

22, male, conservative, VA-08 (residence), CA-15 (school)
[ Parent ]
There's a difference
Between Democratic opportunists and GOP opportunists. Democrats, minus Lieberman and Nelson, do it out of love for their country and the unbridled patriotism therein. GOPers do it for power and control over the little man, and nothing more or less.

50, straight white male, Democrat(Dan Boren/Gene Taylor 2012!), AL-7(born in AL-5)
[ Parent ]
completely disagree
with that statement, and i bet most democrats do as well

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
So you're essentially saying
That Democrats are un-American? If so, I completely and totally disagree with such a blanket assertion.

50, straight white male, Democrat(Dan Boren/Gene Taylor 2012!), AL-7(born in AL-5)
[ Parent ]
no!
i'm saying most republicans aren't un-american either.

but i don't think this is a productive discussion, so i'll end it here.

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

[ Parent ]
You're kidding, right?
I don't know how anybody could ever have such a white-and-black view of the world. Go out, meet some Republicans without kicking them in the face.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)
[ Parent ]
I actually think 2008
was Al Franken's "time", as a matter of fact.

You're right, however. "Turn" or "time" is the wrong term to use. I just think it shows a certain level of callousness towards your constituents when you're floating your name for a new office less than six months after you won your current one (less of an impact when the constituencies are the same, though, come to think of it..).

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42

[ Parent ]
from House to Senate
Isn't the same type of shift as making a bid for a different office with different responsibilities, as I see it. I agree that there's something a little off-putting, generally, when newly elected officials display restless ambition, but House to Senate (whether US or in state legislatures) is different, to me. Same issues, serving same (if sometimes expanded) constituent bases. Nearly all of your earlier campaign is still relevant.    

Half the population believes our electoral system is broken. The other half believes it is fixed. Wakeuplaughing.com  
[ Parent ]
Not to mention in Berg's case it's the exact same voters either way......
North Dakota is an at-large state!  There's no difference to voters between House and Senate except that Senators are more powerful since you're one of 100 instead of one of 435.

Honestly it makes perfect sense for the GOP to want Berg to run for Senate.  He's the strongest Republican they can run for either race, so why not have him run for the more powerful of the two offices?  And the fact Berg is a frosh with no House seniority anyway makes it even a stronger argument.

Really, in an at-large state like ND there's no reason for Berg to pass on the Senate race.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
and on a more philosophical note
Politicians wouldn't jump to new races if it weren't politically viable, and it's politically viable because we're a democracy and we as voters make it so.  Plenty of people in business have meotric rises and that's cause they're good at something; politicians do it because we personally approve it by voting for them.
[ Parent ]
?
Senator Obama was less than halfway into his first term when he ran for President and that worked out pretty good.  One of the most important things in politics is ceasing the moment.  There is a vacuum in the race and it appears the folks that decide the nomination are begging him to run for a six year term representing the same territory he represents now since ND is at large.  I really don't see this being a problem for him and he would be the instant frontrunner.  Will he be John Hoeven? No.  But I'd expect he will have a solid victory kind of like the Udalls in CO and NM in 2008 fairly easily won to long held GOP seats.  And the Dem bench is paper thin here. Remember Dorgan, Conrad and Pomeroy were all currently elected statewide officeholders when they won their seats and Dems have no one like that now.
[ Parent ]
Meant "seizing" to "ceasing"
There are no "turns" in politics  
[ Parent ]
Did I miss an annoucement
I think this week is "Big Kids beat up Little Kids" week.

Wagner in for MO-2 even though it isn't even open yet, basically slapping down Diehl, Akin is "outed" for MO-Sen slapping down Steelman & Martin (though Martin is so dumb he want to jump out of the flying pan and into the fire).

Now Kalk makes his big announcement and Berg (who I really wish was Ryan Renolds character from 2 guys & a girl, now that is a candidate I can get behind!) immediately metaphorically walks up behind him with a bat and bashes his head in the Bobby Deniro as Scarface in the Untouchables.

Brutal! We really need to do something about political bullying...

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

Now, if only Elizabeth Warren or Joe Kennedy III...
Would do the same to Alan Khazei and Bob Massie in Massachusetts. Fercryinoutloud.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Eh,
I was writing this seat off as Likely R even before Berg got in. And opening up ND-AL gives us one more target in taking back the House. I didn't see Berg losing, but as an open seat it might be competitive, assuming we can find one of the 3 remaining ND Dems to run for it. (Or Pomeroy, of course, but he seems to have been fairly spooked by his loss last year and only seems interested in a job where he isn't constantly running, i.e. Governor.)  
I actually agree, I like our odds better...
...taking back an open House seat than an open Senate seat in this state, even though the House seat is at-large.  Somehow I just feel like voters are likely to be more willing to vote Democratic downballot, where it's a lower profile and the GOP already has a majority.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Perhaps.
But at the same time, we should fight like dogs for both spots, and probably at the presidential level too, simply because the state is so small and the heft of a presidential campaign could prove very valuable. Ticket splitting wouldn't surprise me, but I would think that if Obama won a state like this, our candidates would almost certainly could out on top in the other races.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
ND-Sen, ND-AL: Rick Berg Reportedly "Likely" to Run for Senate | 67 comments

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