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NV-Sen: John Ensign Announces He'll Resign in May

by: DavidNYC

Thu Apr 21, 2011 at 6:54 PM EDT


Via the National Journal:

Two-term Republican Sen. John Ensign of Nevada will resign on Friday, Republican sources tell National Journal, ending a once-promising career that had the former veterinarian and casino manager eyeing a possible presidential bid before an ugly sex scandal and subsequent ethics probe snuffed out his ambition and, eventually, his Senate tenure.

Ensign's resignation will clear the way for GOP Gov. Brian Sandoval to appoint GOP Rep. Dean Heller, already an announced candidate for Ensign's seat, to the Senate vacancy.

Ensign, 53, began notifying Nevada friends of his intentions late Thursday. The senator has kept his distance from official GOP circles in Washington for months, but word quickly spread to GOP figures inside the Beltway who tell NJ they are certain Ensign will resign.

"We have no reason to doubt that it's true and believe it's happening," a senior GOP official told NJ.

I'm pretty surprised to see this happen - Ensign had many chances to resign over the years, and sooner would have been better for him than later. But with his announcement six weeks ago that he wouldn't seek re-election, there just didn't seem to be a reason for him to quit early anymore. So either he's doing one last solid for the GOP (as the National Journal notes, this will give Heller an easy and instant move into the Senate), or he's worried that the still-pending ethics investigation against him will somehow make him look worse than he already does, or both.

I'm not sure whether a year-and-a-half of incumbency will make a huge difference in next year's race (Heller would have to stand for re-election in November 2012), but I'm guessing Shelley Berkeley, the almost-certain Democratic nominee, would rather face Rep. Heller rather than Sen. Heller. I'll be very curious to see how she reacts if this comes to pass, and what her strategy looks like.

One final observation: Assuming Sandoval does the obvious thing here, this would also create a vacancy in Heller's 2nd CD seat. That would prompt a special election, presumably under existing district lines, which could be a very entertaining affair. Candidates have already been lining up for the GOP primary to replace Heller, so I'd guess they'd all likely run in a special election, too - and that includes Sharron Angle. If Dems put up a strong candidate, we could potentially steal this seat. It's going to be interesting.

UPDATE: Ensign in fact decided to announce today, via press release. He says his resignation will be effective May 3.

DavidNYC :: NV-Sen: John Ensign Announces He'll Resign in May
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NV-02
Don't get too excited. With party committees picking nominees, there is a near 0 chance that Angle is the nominee. It'll be Krolicki or Amodei. Amodei could surprise since he was NV GOP chair until today  

Oh and
As for Ensign, I'm guessing another big shoe was about to drop  

[ Parent ]
confusion
Do Party leaders pick the nominee or is it like Hawaii where there was a free for all and Djou won? Seems to be some confusion in the daily digest talking about this

22, male, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Maybe you legal eagles can figure it out.
http://www.leg.state.nv.us/NRS...

Only thing that seems clear to me is there is no Primary.  

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan


[ Parent ]
My two second graze at this
is as follows. First:

"If the Governor issues an election proclamation calling for a special election pursuant to NRS 304.230, no primary election may be held. Except as otherwise provided in this subsection, a candidate must be nominated in the manner provided in chapter 293 of NRS and must file a declaration or acceptance of candidacy within the time prescribed by the Secretary of State pursuant to NRS 293.204, which must be established to allow a sufficient amount of time for the mailing of election ballots. A candidate of a major political party is nominated by filing a declaration or acceptance of candidacy within the time prescribed by the Secretary of State pursuant to NRS 293.204. "

The reference to ch. 293 isn't much help. It says:

[A] vacancy occurring in a major or minor political party nomination for a partisan office may be filled by a candidate designated by the party central committee of the county or State, as the case may be, of the major political party

Problem: is this a vacancy in nomination? No, it's a vacancy in office.

I assume this has happened before, so someone must have experience. And I just skimmed this quickly!  


[ Parent ]
I imagine we see it one way
The GOP see it the other. Shouldn't really be the case. Wish they used plain English.

[ Parent ]
Well, there's more:
NRS 304.250  Regulations.  The Secretary of State shall adopt such regulations as are necessary for conducting elections pursuant to the provisions of NRS 304.200 to 304.250, inclusive.
   

So, under NV administrative law, can our SOS issue regulations providing for selection of nominees? I'd say a reasonable construction of this is that she can.


[ Parent ]
Oh boy
Instant karma's gonna get you!

[ Parent ]
Right
No one is sure. Weigel originally reported what I said, Ralston is saying it may be like HI. Election law experts in NV are trying to figure out what it says. The only thing for sure is there is no primary.  

[ Parent ]
http://www.leg.state.nv.us/NRS/NRS-304.html#NRS304Sec230
Can't understand the legal jargon but MNMike said parties would pick nominees. Might be wrong though

22, male, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Nope
He came back later to say he was wrong.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
I very well could be wrong
That was just my first layman's reading of the law but I am no lawyer.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
looks like a free for all
My mistake

22, male, VA-10

[ Parent ]
These things really should be made clearer in every state


[ Parent ]
Wish
I wish there were a wikipedia article about the special election laws in every state. They could do their nice color coded maps:

States in yellow hold jungle elections with first past the post winning.
States in brown hold jungle elections with top two advancing to run-off.
States in green hold voter primaries with party nominees participating in election.
States in blue parties pick the nominees to participate in election.

Senate:

States in yellow hold immediate special election.
States in brown the governor appoints placeholder until normally scheduled special election.
States in green require governor to appoint member of the same party.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.


[ Parent ]
In fact
Someone should do a diary about this and make the maps themselves.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
Agreed
Would be useful. Of course if some got their way the Seventeenth Amendment would be repealed and we wouldn't have this problem!

[ Parent ]
Seventeenth
The 17th is fine. However, another amendment specifying that the appointment must be reasonably similar to the person vacating the office in terms of age, ideology, partisanship, religion, and ethnicity would be nice.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
Totally unworkable
I would oppose such an amendment.  

[ Parent ]
Nah
As long as it was phrased in a way that the governor would only have to make a reasonable choice along some sort of guidelines. The age part might be somewhat difficult to fulfill (many vacancies are deaths), but the others aren't really difficult.


21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
Who gets to enforce the standards?
Can any citizen just sue the Governor with the complaint that the nominee he's chosen isn't satisfactory? The traditional answer is that the Senate gets to judge the qualifications of its members. Would you abrogate that?  

[ Parent ]
Er
This is getting weird fast. Let's get back to Nevada, shall we?

[ Parent ]
i would oppose such an amendement


22, male, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Wikipedia's open to all
Why don't you create this page?

[ Parent ]
Maybe
I've got five essays to write by next Tuesday, then finals are the week after. Immediately after finals is the three week maymester in which I'm taking Race & Ethnicity on Public Policy. The structure of that class is one 12 page paper each week and a written in class final exam. The texts for the class are both over 800 pages.

I'm not going to have the time over the next month, so I was shrugging it off assuming that someone would like the resource sooner rather than later.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.


[ Parent ]
Ralston said
on twitter that the law may provide for a free-for-all.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Don't be so sure
Check this out, from Ralston.

[ Parent ]
Yeah
It looks like it might be a WILD free-for-all, actually. Here's the statute Ralston linked:

     NRS 304.240  Issuance by Governor of election proclamation precludes holding of primary election; nomination of candidates; placement of names of candidates on ballot; conduct of election; application of general election laws; exception.

     1.  If the Governor issues an election proclamation calling for a special election pursuant to NRS 304.230, no primary election may be held. Except as otherwise provided in this subsection, a candidate must be nominated in the manner provided in chapter 293 of NRS and must file a declaration or acceptance of candidacy within the time prescribed by the Secretary of State pursuant to NRS 293.204, which must be established to allow a sufficient amount of time for the mailing of election ballots. A candidate of a major political party is nominated by filing a declaration or acceptance of candidacy within the time prescribed by the Secretary of State pursuant to NRS 293.204. A minor political party that wishes to place its candidates on the ballot must file a list of its candidates with the Secretary of State not more than 46 days before the special election and not less than 32 days before the special election. To have his or her name appear on the ballot, an independent candidate must file a petition of candidacy with the appropriate filing officer not more than 46 days before the special election and not less than 32 days before the special election.

So to the contrary. If Ralston's reading is right (and it seems to be), we should get very excited, because this will be an insane race.


[ Parent ]
As I posted above, it depends on the meaning
of ch. 293. In particular, is this the kind of nomination vacancy that allows the central committee to pick a nominee?  

[ Parent ]
293
Reads more like a situation where a nominee dies or whatever and needs replacing after they win their party primary. But I'm not a lawyer.

[ Parent ]
Yes, I think that's probably what it means
But I would ask whether the legislature reasonably intended for there to be a plurality free-for-all in a special election. the code appears to empower the SoS to issue regulations preventing that.

[ Parent ]
It still doesn't matter
You can get on as an independent.

[ Parent ]
It matters to the extent
that people are much more likely to be willing to vote for a candidate with a party designation than not.  

[ Parent ]
Okay, maybe so
But the question isn't, what will happen in a free-for-all. The question we're trying to answer is whether there will be a free-for-all, and even if major party candidates have to be nominated by committee, anyone can get on as an independent. I can't imagine Sharron Angle turning down that opportunity if she had it, and probably not Lippold, either.

Also, I think there are other ways to read the statute. The provision in 304.240 we're talking about says, "Except as otherwise provided in this subsection, a candidate must be nominated in the manner provided in chapter 293 of NRS...." You then cite specifically to 293.165... but 304.240 doesn't say "293.165," it just says "293." And at 293.175, there's a lengthy section dealing with nominations. So maybe 304.240 is referring to that.


[ Parent ]
Well, 293.175 says:
5.  The provisions of NRS 293.175 to 293.203, inclusive, do not apply to:
     (a) Special elections to fill vacancies.

I really think it matters what kind of free-for-all this is. Angle is much more dangerous to the Republicans if she can wear the Republican badge on the ballot than if she can't.  


[ Parent ]
Good catch
And I'm not saying it doesn't matter what kind of free-for-all we have. But I think it matters more whether there is one or isn't one. And it's probably always better for the minority party if there is one.

Also, after Lisa Murkowski's successful run last year, I'm sure lacking the (R) label won't be a huge obstacle for Sharron Angle. But anyhow, we'll see how the state interprets its own fucked up laws.


[ Parent ]
You would think that Nevada
had held a special election at some point in history, no?

[ Parent ]
I think I saw Ralston tweet
That this law only dates to 2003.

[ Parent ]
It looks that way, but even so. . .
I no nothing about Nevada Administrative law, but I read the statute to commit interpretation to the SoS. Our Sos.

[ Parent ]
*know nothing* (An appropriate place for an error. . .)


[ Parent ]
Wait, who passed the 2003 law?
They're presumably still around, right? Like, who was on the committee of government affairs in 2003 in both houses?

In 2003, the Senate had Sen. Ann O'Connell, Chair, Sen. Sandra Tiffany, Vice Chair, Sen. Raggio, Sen. Randolph Townsend, Sen. Warren Hardy II, Sen. Dina Titus and Sen. Terry Care sitting on the government affairs committee according to the minutes of this meeting.

In the lower house, on Elections, Procedures & Ethics, it was Ms. Chris Giunchigliani (Chair), Mr. Marcus Conklin (Vice Chair), Mr. Bernie Anderson, Mr. Bob Beers, Mr. Chad Christensen, Mr. Tom Grady, Ms. Kathy McClain, Mr. Bob McCleary, Ms. Peggy Pierce and Ms. Valerie Weber, according to these minutes.

The SoS at the time, of course, was Dean Heller. On second thought, maybe that's not such a good idea. Hell, on third thought, maybe it is...

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
This Statute apparently applies to Congress
and from what I can gather from Wikipedia (which of course may not be right), Nevada has never had a House special election since statehood, and last had a Senate special election in 1954.

35, Male, Democrat, MD-8

[ Parent ]
Nope
According to Greg Giroux, this will be their 1st

[ Parent ]
House special election process
So to be "nominated" by either major party, you just have to file and qualify, and everyone (including multiple Ds and/or Rs) appears on the special election ballot?  Potentially that's the best path to a Democratic pickup, as, say, Sharron Angle and a more establishment-favored Republican split the GOP vote and a Dem slips through with a plurality, in a reverse Hawaii-1.

Even in a conventional 1-on-1, this would quite possibly be competitive (well, not entirely 1-on-1, taking into account "None of the Above" and minor party candidates), but it would be neat, in a sort of Schadenfreude way, to see tea partyism and infighting cost the Nevada GOP for the second year in a row, in a possible preview of events elsewhere.

35, Male, Democrat, MD-8


[ Parent ]
Would still be competitive I imagine
It isn't that Republican.

[ Parent ]
Comments
Comments on the status of the race:
http://www.swingstateproject.c...

Comments on the special election rules:
http://www.swingstateproject.c...

Comments on the special election rules regarding redistricting:
http://www.swingstateproject.c...


21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.


Obviously
These are from the Daily Digest thread where the news was broken.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
Thank You
I thought it would be helpful.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
Kate Mrashall?
I take it that this would basically be a freebie for everyone, including Kate Marshall on our side?

Maybe
I think she'd do well.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
Treasurer Marshall would almost certainly break through...
In a jungle primary with Angle and at least one other Republican on the ballot.

This is actually great news for the Democrats, in my opinion. Will it be harder to beat an incumbent Sen. Heller? Maybe. But I don't think that's conclusive. He'll only have been a senator for a year and a half by Election Day 2012, and he'll be an obviously political appointee. That worked out for the politically adroit Sen. Gillibrand and the incredibly fortunate Sen. Bennet, but those kind of appointments don't always go so well.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


[ Parent ]
It goes both ways
Yeah, but in a free for all, would Jill Derby or someone else also run on the D side?

[ Parent ]
Good point
It means finding a consensus nominee. And Harry Reid is obviously very powerful.

[ Parent ]
Nevada seems to have something of a Democratic machine...
In contrast with the disorganized chaos that is the Nevada Republican Party.

I think the Democrats could probably talk Derby out of running, perhaps by promising to support her for the Nevada Senate seat formerly held by Amodei (up in 2014).

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


[ Parent ]
Eh
I don't think that such support would be enticing. Things like that only work in states where legislators actually get paid decently. Nevada Senators only get paid $146.90 a day plus a per diem.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
Good point
Well, that job as state treasurer may be open in a few months...

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
good question
basically, in 2012 it would also be a freebie for Marshall as all state constitutional officers are elected in non-presidential years (2010,2014). However, all Assemblymembers and most State Senators don't have that freebie in 2012. One Assemblywoman being talked about is Debbie Smith. But she could also become Assembly Speaker after the next election. So I'd guess she would think twice about a run for Congress. In essence, there may be more Dems interested in the special than in 2012. However, it depends on the date of the special election as the legislative session doesn't end until June 6 and any Assemblymember and state senator would not have much time for campaigning until then. All this leads me to think it would probably have to be Marshall.

[ Parent ]
Hmm
Not sure how much this helps Heller, but I can't see it hurting him at all. I do expect this race to be close so I guess every little bit helps for him.  

At the very least
He'd get to avoid having to take votes on insane shit put forth by the House GOP for the next 18 months.

[ Parent ]
Equally
He could tie himself in knots with cloture arguments.

[ Parent ]
Not sure I follow you
I mean, the bills that come up in the House these days are a lot more crazy - and a lot more numerous - than those that come up in the Senate, just by virtue of leadership. Sure, he'll still have some awkward votes in the Senate, but likely fewer.

Also, if he's the incumbent, I think there's less of a chance that he'll be primaried, and also makes it easier for the NRSC to back him to the hilt if he is primaried.


[ Parent ]
Oh I get that
It probably helps a bit. But it isn't like he can hide on the other side of the capitol either. My point really is that the electorate doesn't really see a distinction between voting for cloture and on the final product.

[ Parent ]
Senate
I don't think there will be too many controversial votes in the Senate these next two years, at least compared to previous terms and the bills being churned out in the House. Reid is doing his best to provide political cover for all his incumbents up this year by not making them vote on anything they don't need to.  

[ Parent ]
Paging atdleft!


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


Seconded
Incidentally, do people still have pagers?

[ Parent ]
Pagers
One of Liz Lemon's boyfriends on 30 rock was the "pager king of New York".  

[ Parent ]
He was the beeper king, actually
"You sell beepers?"

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Doctor's still do...
And Tina Fey's boyfriend on 30 Rock a few years ago. ;-)

[ Parent ]
Oh yeah...
It's called my wife...."JIM!!!!!"  Very effective too.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
OK, OK, I'm here!
I've been busy today, and I'm about to head to my HRC social in a few, but let me first give y'all my $0.02:

- This is nothing more than Ensign, Sandoval, & Heller trying to game the system and cheat in the next election.

- If Dems stay on this message, IMHO it will negate whatever "advantage" Heller gets out of this.

- Shelley shows no indication of dropping out, and there's really no reason to.

- In a NV-02 free for all, expect Angle to jump in... Along with a few other GOPers. Kate Marshall just keeps looking better and better...

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
I honestly don't think the fact that he is an appointed senator matters
Sure, this is a case of the NV GOP trying to game the system, but only political junkies like us pay attention to that sort of shit.

The major advantages of incumbency are:
-Name recognition
-A support base (half of the electorate has already voted for you)
-Fundraising

Heller will probably get the third, but not much of the first or second.


[ Parent ]
1st one
Doesn't sound like it based on Ethics Committee statement: "The Senate Ethics Committee has worked diligently for 22 months on this matter and will complete its work in a timely fashion. Senator Ensign has made the appropriate decision."
"Appropriate decision" implies that they are finding something else that could be even more damaging to him. According to Ralston, the committee recently voted to proceed with its investigation of Ensign.  

[ Parent ]
I wonder...
I can't help but think that if Nevada had a Democratic governor, he or she wouldn't go for the upper hand, but simply appoint a placeholder rather than appoint Shelley Berkley.

I'm just thinking of Kaufman in Delaware. Goodwin in West Virginia. Burris in Illinois. Kirk in Massachusetts.

I know I'm making a generalization, and there are probably 20 reasons for the appointments for each of those 4 people. I just can't help but feel that it seems like Republicans are more likely to play hardball and not care.


Lynch too remember
I had the same thought.

[ Parent ]
Not entirely fair
DE- She was keeping to seat open for Biden and wanted to weaken the nepotism charges

WV- He wanted the seat for himself

IL- Didn't seem like a competitive general election and no Republican would buy the seat

MA- Thats the law they made and, like IL, looked like a freebie for the Dem primary winner. Didn't want to give anybody an advantage in the primary

If NV had a Dem governor, Ensign probably wouldn't be resigning and it would look bad if he appointed a Dem because he would be changing the partisan control of the seat.  


[ Parent ]
Oddly
I agree with all of that.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
IL
IL wasn't because of the Dem primary it was because Blagoavich went crazy and appointed Roland Burris before he was impeached and there was nothing that could be done to stop the appointment.

Before they caught Blago he was thinking of giving the seat to Madigan or Jesse Jackson Jr. who would have ran for reelection.  


[ Parent ]
Democrats had weeks
They could have stopped Blago from appointing anyone and called a special in early 09 if I'm not mistaken. They totally dropped the ball on Burris

22, male, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Well there was no IL statute...
... providing for an early special election. Rather, some legislators were arguing that the state legislature had the right to call a special election under the 17th Amendment. It would have been an interesting test case, and it should have been done, though it may not have mattered. (Would Giannoulias have fared better in '10 as an incumbent? Probably, but maybe not.)  

[ Parent ]
The democratic legislature could have passed a bill
providing for special elections.

[ Parent ]
State leg Dems couldn't agree on what to do, but that had nothing to do with the Burris appointment......
Blago picked Burris specifically to give the middle finger to everyone.  He knew Burris was not who anyone wanted, and that's why he picked him.

The great irony of all those appointments was how damn lucky we got.  In such a bad anti-Democratic wave and all those seats made vulnerable by questionable appointments even before any wave materialized, we should've lost 'em all.  But our appointee beat the odds and won in Colorado, did great in New York, and kept the seat warm for a Democratic successor in Colorado.  Only in Illinois did we bomb, and that's where a competent appointment would have helped.  But that wasn't possible with Blago.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Changing partisan control
of a seat doesn't always look bad, though it is getting something of an unearned and arguably not entirely fair partisan boost.

The last time I recall that happening was in 2000, when Sen. Paul Coverdell (R) of Georgia died and Zell Miller (D) was appointed in his place.  Miller then won the special election by a landslide.  However that's not necessarily a very good example, as Miller was personally popular from being governor and, of course, turned out not to be much of a Democrat in Washington (except in providing a crucial vote to keep a majority after Jim Jeffords switched.)

35, Male, Democrat, MD-8


[ Parent ]
I often wondered if that was part of the reason
Miller went off the dead end. Like he had some kind of moral obligation to be as conservative as possible.

[ Parent ]
Kinda what I'm saying
Rather than go for the upper hand and the consequences be damned, it seems they'd rather play nice.

Don't appoint Biden, cause it looks like nepotism. Play nice.

Don't piss off any of the elected Democrats, appoint Kirk instead of Capuano or even Coakley to the seat and have the advantage of running as the incumbent. Play nice.

You could say that Ritter appointed a less than strong contender in Bennett. Don't piss off any of the elected Democrats, play nice.

For all his faults, David Patterson made a good pick with Gillibrand. He probably pissed off some members of Congress who also wanted the job.


[ Parent ]
Then-Gov. Paterson pissed off quite a few people...
Reps. Israel and Maloney were particularly vocal about it, and that airhead Caroline Kennedy wasn't thrilled.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Airhead? Come on! Play nice!
The concern I had with a prospective Caroline appointment wasn't that she would've been a poor Senator; rather it was that she would've been a poor candidate.

She reminded me too much of her cousin for comfort.


[ Parent ]
To be fair,
The national MSM would've torn the hell out of Democrats in general if Minner had appointed Biden, and the "Democrats are corrupt OMFG" hyperbole would've started before Obama was even elected. She pretty much HAD to appoint a placeholder or it would've screwed her party at the national level. Of course, it would've screwed her party anyway if not for the impeccable comedic timing of one Christine O'Donnell.

I entirely agree about Massachusetts and especially Colorado, though. Massachusetts at least makes a little bit of sense, but Bennet's appointment has always been a WTF for me.

Ironically, the only one of these three seats that actually went red was the one in solidly Democratic Massachusetts. Go figure.

 


[ Parent ]
*inaugurated.
Not elected.

I understand how the process works, really I do!  


[ Parent ]
Appointing Bennet
(Bennet, not Bennett, right?)

Hickenlooper was always the most obvious choice for that Senate seat, but I believe there's bad blood between Ritter and Hickenlooper. I've always read it as  Ritter appointing a well-regarded non-entity who had ties to Hickenlooper so Hick couldn't beef but his political future was curtailed. (It would have worked, too, had Ritter not botched things as governor while the economy took a nose dive.)


[ Parent ]
Bennet worked out surprisingly well
A nice surprise.  

[ Parent ]
Oh, and...
... his voting record - though not as left-wing as progressives might like - was waaay to the left of Ken Salazar's, who might have been as difficult a get as Lincoln, Landrieu, Lieberman, and Ben Nelson on major legislation.  

[ Parent ]
Really?
I was under the impression that Ken Salazar was was a lot better than Jon Salazar. I'd still believe he was to the right of Bennet, but I didn't think he was THAT bad.

[ Parent ]
All those are true
But it's funny to think that the Democrats probably screwed themselves out of two seats; had someone who was both competent and intended to run for election in the special/general been appointed in MA or IL, those two seats would probably be blue. Heck, even if Giannoulias and Coakley had been appointed, they might have won despite their respective terribleness as candidates.

21, Dem, NY-15 (formerly NJ-05)

[ Parent ]
Weigel:
Okay. What's that mean? It's not completely clear whether there's a free-for-all or whether, as when a candidate drops out of a race after grabbing the nomination, the candidate is selected by a party committee. A snap election is good for Sharron Angle; a party committee election, not as good. Pam DuPre, a state elections official who sent me the info, says the office is trying to figure out the current law as we speak.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/blo...

I'd think there would have to have been a special election for a state legislative seat or something to use as precedent, but Google hasn't turned up anything yet....

23, male, Democrat, IA-02 (previously CA-26, PA-06, CA-06)


was just gonna post this article
Yeah, election law is weird...

22, male, VA-10

[ Parent ]
There was
For Bill Raggio's seat. I know a committee picked the Republican who succeeded him but I'm not sure if that was for an election or if it was an appointment to the seat  

[ Parent ]
Appointment by the county commission
According to this article.  So I guess the state legislature isn't going to be useful in providing precedents.

23, male, Democrat, IA-02 (previously CA-26, PA-06, CA-06)

[ Parent ]
I guess
there's no precedent. Ralston tweeted that there never was a house vacancy in Nevada. And when you look at this wikipedia timeline that appears to be the case. So this would be a first.

[ Parent ]
Change the law
I am impressed by how many people jumped on here, and so quickly.  Wasn't the law changed in West Virginia after Sen. Byrd died, so that an election had to be held for his open Senate seat.  And wasn't the GOP in strongly in favor of this change?  Why don't the Dems raise the same stink and force the law to be changed.  I realize that Nevada has a GOP governor, but, public pressure could change things, and it would certainly tarnish Heller if he came out against having a special election for this Senate seat.  Even if the law wasn't changed, Heller would look illegitimate.

That was because their was confusion
It was done that way because Manchin wanted it. Senate seat procedure looks pretty clear here. The cloud is over the House seat.

[ Parent ]
That's great thinking
It would be a win-win for Democrats if they used the correct messaging, too. Gov. Sandoval would likely veto the legislation, but how bad would that look, and how seriously would it taint a potential Sen.-designate Heller?

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
I agree
There is the law and then there is the perception of what the law is or should be.  In a swing state like Nevada, with 14% unemployment, and Ensign leaving under a cloud of scandal, the Dems could definitely work up a frenzy over this and make the GOP look bad, irregardless of what the law says.  What do we have to lose?

[ Parent ]
The WV law
was unclear, and SoS Tennant and then-Gov. Manchin both offered conflicting versions of it.  Tennant saw it as allowing a replacement to be appointed for two years, but ultimately Manchin prevailed on the legislature to pass a law clarifying that a special election must he held (and he could appoint a replacement just for the few months in between).  

The WV GOP wanted a special election as well, probably enticed by the idea that Shelley Moore Capito or another strong candidate would run in a year when big GOP gains were clearly likely by that point.  But of course she didn't, the gaffe-prone John Raese (who didn't even live in the state most of the time) did, and Manchin prevailed again.

35, Male, Democrat, MD-8


[ Parent ]
Ralston leaves snarky, but loaded tweet.
Truly shows what sophisticated state NV is that no one in authority what the heck special will look like. If free-for all, Angle a favorite


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


Wow
... Wow.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
If it gets really messy...
I wonder if there could be some backlash on Heller for not staying in his current seat and on Sandoval for not naming a place holder.

If Angle wins a wide open special election but only gets 35% of the vote, Heller could be blamed for putting his personal ambition ahead of any other consideration and put Sharon Angle in Congress.  


[ Parent ]
Voters
probably won't mind that Heller takes an offered promotion, just like most people would take a promotion if offered to them. And certainly not in his Nov. 2012 election.
Not Heller's fault that the NV election laws appear to be a mess.

[ Parent ]
I respect the hell out of Ralston...
But I have a really hard time seeing Angle getting a plurality of the vote against an establishment Republican like Amodei or Lt. Gov. Krolicki, especially if Cmdr. Lippold is in to split the crazy vote, and especially if the Democrats are able to get together behind one candidate (ideally Treasurer Marshall).

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
If the Democrats get behind one candidate
That really is the million dollar question here. If that happens, I think it's almost inevitable that we win the special. If not, I really have no idea.  

Male, VA-08

[ Parent ]
My guess for a four-way race would be...
Angle - 22%
Krolicki - 25%
Lippold - 8%
Marshall - 45%

For a three-way race (eliminating the commander):

Angle - 29%
Krolicki - 26%
Marshall - 45%

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


[ Parent ]
If it's truly a wide open special
where anyone can file, there could be lots of names on the ballet.
Kind of comparable: the upcoming CA-36 special has sixteen  names of the ballot (11 of which are from the 2 major parties! Only 5 "others".)

[ Parent ]
plus "none of these candidates"
in NV which in recent years seems to be getting around 2-3% (in the non presidential elections).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N...

[ Parent ]
Tomorrow?
http://politicalwire.com/archi...

Taegan Goddard is saying that he'll resign tomorrow instead of waiting until May 3rd.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.


.
I think Goddard is misreading the info. The Roll Call article clearly states that he'll inform Biden that he's going to resign tomorrow.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
Ensign is a douchebag
Okay, I feel better now...

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

Senate race
If Heller is appointed, how much does this change the Dem calculus for the Senate race? I've read the arguments from Silver and others about it not boosting Heller much, given the history with senate vacancies. I'd also note that Heller already represents the vast (geographic) bulk of the state in the House, but won't being incumbent senator give him a boost in stature that would strengthen him in Clark and Washoe? Not to mention the thing people have mentioned about Heller being less exposed to tough votes in the Senate. The DSCC reportedly preferred Masto/Miller over Berkley, I think one report claimed that even Reid shared the concern. Given that it makes the already-steep climb for Berkley more difficult, might it lead some recalculations?

Silver
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n...


21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
He ends the post in a ridiculous way
Dems do not need to win districts like this one to win back the House. there are many better targets.  

[ Parent ]
He also assumes that a win here wouldn't help
But it likely would since we wouldn't have been expected to benefit greatly here from redistricting and thus it gives us the power of incumbency.

His blog has gotten pretty irrelevant since moving to the nytimes site.  He even wrote some article in the past couple of weeks with the assertion of the Dem open seats in Hawaii, Connecticut, and New Mexico as being very competitive in the general which is either buying into the cw or very lazy analysis.

NC-06/NC-04


[ Parent ]
FWIW, I've never been a fan of his hocus pocus
But that's off topic here!  

[ Parent ]
Agreed
Silver was much better and much more prolific when he was on his own, however I don't remember any article describing Hawaii, Conn, and NM as being competitive.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
I also agree
I loved FiveThirtyEight before it moved over to The New York Times. I've found it to be somewhat dull and frequently head-bobbling since then. Silver used to be an outsider with an unorthodox view and a clever methodology; I think he's sort of been subsumed into "the system". The BosWash MSM ate him, I suppose.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
He did used to have good analysis before
And it was this article I was referencing, and I misremembered it slightly.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n...

He buys into that narrative of "Dems have twice as many seats to defend, they're DOOMED!!!1!!1" and quite frankly it's beneath him.

And now I'm wondering which other supposedly respectable political analyst I read in the past weak or two who asserted that Dems hold was vulnerable due to Hawaii and Connecticut.

NC-06/NC-04


[ Parent ]
What do you mean he buys into that narrative?
That seems like the exact opposite of what he's arguing there. He literally states in the last sentence of that article that the senate is a tossup.  

Male, VA-08

[ Parent ]
Never mind, confused that article with another one by someone else...
I just read the above the fold section on the main blog when I linked it a little while ago and after re-reading the whole thing that doesn't make much sense.

Anyway, I think calling Republicans the slight favorite to take over the senate is a bit optimistic, because I wouldn't give them an expected value of 4 gains, but then again I'd say VA is lean Dem and OH, FL, and MI are likely dem so it's not like it's out of the range of possibilities if NV, MT, and MO are tossups.

NC-06/NC-04


[ Parent ]
You guys are wrong about this one
NV-2 is slightly more Republican than the country as a whole, but you are neglecting the difference between open seats and incumbent seats. The incumbency advantage in Congressional elections is worth about 7 points.

Go here (http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/) and sort by McCain's vote total. Subtract 7 points from McCain's vote total for all the seats with Democratic incumbents. Add 7 to all those with Republican incumbents. Neither add or subtract from NV-2, since it has no incumbent any longer.

Now sort by McCain's adjusted vote share.

What you'll find is that NV-2 actually comes out as being slightly easier for Democrats to win than the median district. It ranks about 165th out of 435.

There will, of course, be other districts in which Republicans eventually retire. And one can argue -- although I don't know if it's the stronger side of the argument -- for using the average of the last two elections, rather than just 2008, which would push NV-2 down the list somewhat.

You're still going to find that NV-2 comes out pretty close to the median, if not a little toward the Democratic side.

Democrats certainly don't have to win this particular district, of course, but they have win the majority of districts like it. If you're not winning R+5ish open seats, that means you're not winning D+1ish seats with Republican incumbents, and that means you're not taking back the Congress since Republicans now control almost all of those.

-Nate

 


[ Parent ]
Holy crap, the man himself!
This is an even bigger pleasure than that time Cook Reports posted a comment here.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
The man
himself graces us with his presence. Awesome.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
I am impressed that you have an account here
Good day to you, sir.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
Come now Nate, I'm not "neglecting" anything
I'm making a judgement about the need to win this seat against the opportunity (which must exist if Democrats are to have any real chance at the House next fall) to win seats in California, Pennsylvania, Ohio, etc.  

Abstract analysis about the value of incumbency does not mean a tremendous amount to me given that a) many "incumbents" are freshmen and poor fits for their districts, and b) that redistricting will change the territory incumbents represent (for better or worse).


[ Parent ]
Wow.
 I don't want to gush but I love your work. It is fascinating. Thanks for all you do.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
cool that you have an account here


22, male, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Nate has really arrivedo to be gushed over here. It wasn't long ago when...
...he was just another schmuck posting diaries on DailyKos.  Among the best diaries, yes, and frequently, and rightly, on the rec list, but still just "one of us."

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I'm REALLY biting my tongue
But I said my bit above.  

[ Parent ]
Your reply was fair and good, and I said my bit further below. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Your point about "old Nevada" is exactly
what I had in mind when I reacted to Nate's original post.  

[ Parent ]
Guess I should read all the way down before posting again lol
but this is pretty much what I said in my previous comment and what I disagreed with was that it wouldn't help win back the house. It would help since this is a district where Obama will probably win by low single digits or come very close in 2012 depending on whether the legislature or court draws the map, but most importantly since the new 4th would be the intended Dem district if the legislature draws a compromise map.  So winning here and having incumbency going into 2012 would result in a pretty large chance of Nevada going from 2-1 GOP to 3-1 Dem and giving us +2 instead of +1 which matters a whole lot when we're looking at a net gain of at least 10 from redistricting and need 25 total to gain the house.

NC-06/NC-04

[ Parent ]
Hey Nate
I don't know why you feel the need to add in a variable like open seat/incumbent but not other variables. Like, how many points better do Republicans do in off-year elections than presidential ones? Why isn't that variable included in your analysis? I know you said that you mean "districts like it," but it strikes me as a little intellectually dishonest that you're leading your readers to believe this is a pivotal race for Democrats when the circumstances in which it will take place are vastly different than the circumstances that Democrats will be dealing with in, as you say, "similar" districts in 2012.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

[ Parent ]
That makes a lot more sense
Thanks Nate. Good to see you back in the independent blogosphere, even ephemerally.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
With all due respect, I would argue not all R+5 districts are the same, and this is among the tougher ones......
This is a very rural district, not many suburbanites, and it's a special election with only the one race on the ballot making it tougher to get Hispanics, other minorities, and other Democratic-favoring demographics to show up.  That this is an odd-year special, when ordinary voters don't care at all, makes it even harder; I'd like our chances better if it were April 2012 instead of 2011.  So it's very white, very rural, and really the one district that can be called the "old" Nevada, harking back to when Nevada's politics resembled the rest of the conservative interior West.

The PVI is exaggerated by Obama's record performance.

This district would and might be more in play post-redistricting, since population must be added and it's tough to add people without further endangering GOP freshmen Rep. Joe Heck, who the state GOP wants to strengthen rather than weaken.

I'm sure there are plenty of R+5 districts out there that are Republican held that, if they came open, Democrats would have a great shot.

I would bet on Christie Vilsack beating Steve King in IA-04 on the same day as a Presidential election with the Obama turnout machine in full swing, before I'd bet on NV-02 flipping in an off-year special.

My one caveat is it obviously makes a huge difference what the rules are, which I understand no one understands yet.  If it's an open primary similar to Hawaii last year when Djou got elected, then we'd have a better shot here than almost any GOP-held seat in the country in November 2012 save the few accidental winners from last time and the few redistricted into oblivion.  We presumably could unify around a single candidate, clear the field, and Republicans would have a hard time preventing multiple vote-getters from going in.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
If there's just two candidates, then, yeah, I don't really think dems have a huge shot at winning this one.
However, if this is a juggle election, the way I see it playing out is Kate Marshal winning with something in the Mid 40s against Sharon Angle and an establishment republican, followed by her re-election in November on the back of the Obama turnout machine. In any case, trying to handicap the house before redistricting is a pretty much completely academic exercise. Sure, you can make generalizations, like "Allan West loses," Democrats pick up seats in Illinois" And "Russ Carnahan is screwed," but the balance of the house rests in marginal seats, most of which have freshmen GOP incumbents. In these races, the sort of districts they get will be vital.

[ Parent ]
One thought here
The PVI is exaggerated by Obama's record performance.

The 2000-2004 PVI for NV-02 was R+8. However, as you'll recall, Cook changed how it calculates PVIs (on account of SSP, actually), so really it would have been R+6. Redder, sure, but not a whole lot redder.

PVI does a pretty good job of "evening out" broad success like Obama had by comparing district scores to national scores.


[ Parent ]
Wow
I don't want to gush either, but Nate, you are literally the reason I am as involved in politics as I am. I've gone from being able to name maybe half a dozen Senators to co-founding a political blog of my own in the two years since I accidently discovered 538. Thanks and keep churning out the awesome work!

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Hi
I tweeted you today this very question.  

[ Parent ]
I miss the old 538
It was the first time I fell in love with politics. Now I'm 18 years old and running for office, 2 years later. So I owe you a thank you. The NYT version of 538 feels corporate, and the commenters are different (and quite frankly, a good deal worse) and your analysis has dipped, if only slightly. With all of that said, it is still the first blog I check every morning, even before SSP.

18, Dem, PA-7

[ Parent ]
Hi Nate!
I saw you a few years back (early 2009?) at a UChicago panel. And I understand that you are a Maroon yourself.

Still, I think you're overgeneralizing. NV-02 kind of reminds me of NJ-07, a district that is theoretically gettable for Dems on paper in an open seat situation in a good year but there's just a 5-10 point gap that's hard to overcome.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
In the Senate
Heller will blend in with the monolithic GOP caucus voting against cloture for the occasional Dem bill that actually gets traction. In the House he'd have to vote yes or no every week practically on some truly batshit stuff. Then again, he already voted for the Ryan budget and if Democrats message correctly that could be enough to hang around his neck. Overall I think the appointment is a slight plus for him, and I disagree with Nate that the race slightly favored Heller already. With Obama turnout and Berkley running, I felt Nevada was a better pickup opportunity than Massachusetts before this all went down.  

NY-01/NY-19

NV-SEN
Interesting how this has played out, especially with the uncertainty regarding the rules for the House special. I had assumed that if Rory Reid had won the gubernatorial last year, there was a good chance that Ensign would have resigned before January to avoid the risk of a Dem replacement for his seat following any other disclosures. On the other hand, if he had resigned in 09 or 10, then a competent replacement would have been set up well to survive a special in 2010, and would have to be considered a strong favorite for the regular election in 2012. By betting (ah, the Vegas jokes never cease) that he would survive his investigation, and ultimately resigning heading into an election cycle that should be much better for Dems nationally, this situation hardly seems to have worked out perfectly for Ensign, Heller or the NV GOP. I do think that 18 months of incumbency tips the scales a bit in Heller's favor, but of the possible scenarios that could have been gamed out in July 2009, this is hardly the worst outcome for Dems in terms of winning this seat in 2012.

In fairness, a placeholder should be appointed
Not that I'd expect that to happen, politics is far to partisan for that. I'd say the same thing for a Democratic seat, let the electoral process play out with attempting to game the system.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

And we have our first candidate for NV-02
http://twitter.com/#!/RalstonF...

RalstonFlash Jon Ralston
State Sen. Greg Brower (R) is missing from the higher ed debate this morning. Why? He's making calls telling people he's getting into #nvcd2.


"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

Not a surprise
Let the games begin...

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]

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