Good luck Ms. Vilsack

I hope she can do it. Iowa has never elected a woman to Congress or to the governor's office.  

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by: gomer @ Wed Apr 20, 2011 at 23:19:01 PM UTC

It will be tough

But if she can remove King Crazypants from Congress, she will be a hero.

20, Democrat, KY-01

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by: westkydem @ Wed Apr 20, 2011 at 23:22:24 PM UTC

I'd imagine it will be put on

the DCCC's main list.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

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by: ndrwmls10 @ Wed Apr 20, 2011 at 23:25:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't know how invested the DCCC will be...

The didn't help out Taryn challenging Bachmann last cycle because they said they like the idea that Bachmann is a spokesperson for the GOP because she makes them look bad.  I'd imagine they'd take the same stance with King.  

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by: Roscoe @ Wed Apr 20, 2011 at 23:34:43 PM UTC

Considering her husband is the

Secretary of Agriculture I'd imagine they'd make an exception. Especially considering they are in the minority now.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

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by: ndrwmls10 @ Wed Apr 20, 2011 at 23:36:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I would hope so.

And Bachmann had silly money to spend and the DCCC probably thought it was out of reach, and Bachmann was running in the same district that elected her - King will have half a new district.  

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by: Roscoe @ Wed Apr 20, 2011 at 23:37:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Meh

Keep Bachmann there but Vilsack is a coup of a candidate who can make this a race. I'm sure the DCCC will make this a major race barring any unexpected developments...like her making any "holy war" comments of her own. (C'mon Tom, goddammit, don't say shit like that).

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

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by: GeoffreyVS @ Wed Apr 20, 2011 at 23:36:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Bachman's higher-profile than King

She's on TV more and is more memorable. The GOP has enough crazy white guys that they blur together in the mind of the casual news follower.

22, male, conservative, VA-08 (residence), CA-15 (school)

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by: LtNOWIS @ Thu Apr 21, 2011 at 00:57:09 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

They'll have to have a bigger list this time around

At just 193 seats, the target list will have to be over 20 seats and even more than that just to have a cushion. This seat will be near the top of the list.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

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by: DrPhillips @ Thu Apr 21, 2011 at 00:59:37 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The list will be at least 40......

They want to take back the House.  What Israel said was only a lot of bluster but not completely so, they see the Ryan social darwin budget, Obama surge turnout, and possibly a bad GOP Presidential nominee, and there's real opportunity there.  It's not 50-50 at this point, not even close, but pieces are falling into place to imagine a plausible scenario where the House could flip yet again.

They need 25, they'll go after at least 40.

And Christie Vilsack will be a top priority assuming she proves competent as everyone thinks she will.  Boswell and Vilsack both will get A-list treatment.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Thu Apr 21, 2011 at 01:08:24 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think the same

I expect some D+ republican seats after redistricting but still this will be not enough.

In the group of R+low seats, IA-04 with a strong democratic challenger will in the A-list. Sure.

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by: abgin @ Thu Apr 21, 2011 at 03:56:26 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

will be

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by: abgin @ Thu Apr 21, 2011 at 03:57:22 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's not the real reason, if they said that it's a phony cover story......

The reason they didn't help Clark is it was an anti-Democratic wave election where they had to spend all there money desperately trying to save incumbents, and there was nothing left to help a longshot like Clark.

Vilsack has a far better shot at beating King in 2012 than Clark had in 2010.  It's a much better district for her in a much better year.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Thu Apr 21, 2011 at 01:04:59 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Clark was also one of the best funded challengers

She didn't even really need the money.  I'm at work so I can't look this up and link to it, but for one of the last fundraising quarters she raised over a million bucks, which I'd guess was better than several of our incumbents.

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by: Andrew @ Thu Apr 21, 2011 at 12:00:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Do you have a link

Which supports this claim?

The didn't help out Taryn challenging Bachmann last cycle because they said they like the idea that Bachmann is a spokesperson for the GOP because she makes them look bad.

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by: DavidNYC @ Thu Apr 21, 2011 at 02:05:43 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It was Kaine and the DNC, not the DCCC...

http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

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by: Roscoe @ Thu Apr 21, 2011 at 14:21:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The complaint in that diary is a fail on so many levels......

The DNC very rarely, if ever, gets involved in individual House races.  That's why we have the DCCC, to do that work.  Methinks the diarist there doesn't understand that.

Maybe Kaine should've just said that and didn't, so a possible mistake in how he answered the question at the event, but a DailyKos diary doesn't really tell us the whole story about the exchange, so I'm not inclined to conclude even that much.

And frankly I don't accept anything else in that diary at face value.  Ed Schulz asked Clark if the DNC was helping her?  I don't know how much Schulz knows about the party committees, but I don't know if the diarist even correctly relayed the question.  Did Schulz say DNC or DCCC?

That DailyKos diary is completely worthless.  It's why so many of us congregate here instead for campaign talk.  It'll be fine over there on the Elections page once the move from here is completed, but at least for awhile a lot of us might have to set people straight like that diarist more often than we're accustomed to.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Thu Apr 21, 2011 at 15:19:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

This is exciting

I'll be honest I had hoped for a map that would leave King with a western-based strong GOP district, and for the other three to easily favor our incumbents...to end up with a 3-1 map instead of one that could easily be 2-2.  But the possibility of going 4-0 in Iowa is very exciting.

Can King really hold a district that Obama almost won?

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by: skaje @ Wed Apr 20, 2011 at 23:56:58 PM UTC

agreed! when the map was first released

it looked like a crap shoot, but IA is going to be an extremely fun state to watch this next cycle!  Hopefully King gives us some crazy because of the Iowa caucuses.

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by: Andrew @ Thu Apr 21, 2011 at 12:24:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

looks like a 2-2 map

to me.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Thu Apr 21, 2011 at 15:39:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

would you say

that'd be your election prediction for 2012?  (Just wondering.)

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by: Andrew @ Thu Apr 21, 2011 at 18:00:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

desmoinesdem is routinely pessimistic......

I would never guess she'd predict Boswell to survive or Vilsack to win.  She's predicted a perenially tanked economy heading into 2012, too, for a headwind.

I'd say the safe bet is 3-1, that we split the 2 in the central-west.  But the delegation could easily end up 2-2 or 4-0.

Bottom line, though, is I'd rather be us than the Republicans in Iowa with this Congressional map.  We're simply better off.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Fri Apr 22, 2011 at 03:32:59 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

desmoinesdem predicted that Boswell would survive in 2010

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

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by: sapelcovits @ Fri Apr 22, 2011 at 23:06:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

At what point in the cycle? Early on, pre-GOP primary? I thought early on she thought he was in bad shape. (nm)

nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Sat Apr 23, 2011 at 02:40:24 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Consistently, I believe.

But I do specifically recall her saying she thought Boswell would hang on even before Zaun's stalker issues came to light.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

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by: sapelcovits @ Sat Apr 23, 2011 at 03:26:39 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Very smart Vilsack

I like.

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by: abgin @ Thu Apr 21, 2011 at 00:08:22 AM UTC

Hells to the yes!

Oh Christie Vilsack, you're now the First Lady of my heart.

Congratulations on replacing Lady Gaga in that position.

And here's to hoping you can replace Steve King in his position of representing Iowa's most conservative district.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

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by: arealmlc @ Thu Apr 21, 2011 at 00:13:45 AM UTC

who forms an exploratory committee for congress?

how does that even work? what's the cost/benefit analysis there?

22, male, VA-10

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by: Bharat @ Thu Apr 21, 2011 at 00:47:58 AM UTC

No distinction

In the eyes of the FEC, there is no distinction between an "exploratory" committee and a "regular" committee. It's just something candidates do to appear to avoid taking the full plunge. Unfortunately, the media does a terrible job of making this point.  

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by: nathanlgonzales @ Thu Apr 21, 2011 at 01:02:48 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

My understanding is there's a difference between "testing the waters" and actually filing candidacy......

"Testing the waters" is a bank account to accept contributions and comes with certain limits on what activities are allowed.

If a "testing the waters" pcandidate violates the limits on activities, s/he is in violation of FEC rules since anything more than what's allowed requires filing formal papers.

Is that right?

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Thu Apr 21, 2011 at 01:10:59 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

$5K

I believe if you raise and spend more than $5K for a federal race you have to file with the FEC. You can explore all you want without raising money, but once you start raising money, there is no distinction in the type of committee you file with the FEC. Usually it's just a matter of changing the name.  

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by: nathanlgonzales @ Thu Apr 21, 2011 at 01:21:58 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thanks, Nathan! (nm)

nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Thu Apr 21, 2011 at 01:44:50 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

the media did a terrible job making a point?

Quelle surprise  

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by: DNick @ Thu Apr 21, 2011 at 02:52:03 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

My guess is you don't "formally" declare until you buy a house in Ames

That's all it is.

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by: tommypaine @ Thu Apr 21, 2011 at 01:17:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Christie Vilsack, call Harry Reid's office!......

The DCCC should have stock advice for anyone challenging a whackjob to call Harry Reid.  Then Harry directs them to his consultants who tell the candidate what to do.

Corollary, the DCCC also should tell candidates to stay away at all cost from Ron Klein or his consultants.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Thu Apr 21, 2011 at 01:13:39 AM UTC

I'd get Sen. Bennet and Gov. Quinn on the phone, too.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

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by: SaoMagnifico @ Fri Apr 22, 2011 at 03:38:21 AM UTC

[ Parent ]