The Republican primary is just a month away - May 17th - and it's hard to imagine state Senate President David Williams losing. But despite Kentucky's dark red turn of late, the general election numbers show that incumbency and candidate quality really do matter. SUSA paints the most optimistic picture for Steve Beshear so far, but his 12-point lead is in line with what we've seen previously (PPP +9, Braun +10).
While I'd expect this race to tighten as we approach election day, it's also worth noting that Williams went on the air with his first TV ad a couple of weeks ago, before this poll went into the field. I'm guessing the buy was fairly small and probably had a limited impact on his numbers, but the fact that he's still in the 30s isn't a good sign for Republicans. You never want to get too comfortable in a race like this, but Beshear is looking pretty good.