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KY-Gov: Beshear on Top by Double Digits

by: DavidNYC

Mon Apr 18, 2011 at 12:18 PM EDT


SurveyUSA for the Louisville Courier-Journal & WHAS11 (4/8-13, likely voters, no trendlines):

David Williams (R): 49
Phil Moffet (R): 14
Bobbie Holsclaw (R): 12
Undecided: 25
(MoE: ±4.4%)

Steve Beshear (D-inc): 51
David Williams (R): 39
Undecided: 10

Steve Beshear (D-inc): 54
Phil Moffet (R): 34
Undecided: 13

Steve Beshear (D-inc): 53
Bobbie Holsclaw (R): 34
Undecided: 13
(MoE: ±2.5%)

The Republican primary is just a month away - May 17th - and it's hard to imagine state Senate President David Williams losing. But despite Kentucky's dark red turn of late, the general election numbers show that incumbency and candidate quality really do matter. SUSA paints the most optimistic picture for Steve Beshear so far, but his 12-point lead is in line with what we've seen previously (PPP +9, Braun +10).

While I'd expect this race to tighten as we approach election day, it's also worth noting that Williams went on the air with his first TV ad a couple of weeks ago, before this poll went into the field. I'm guessing the buy was fairly small and probably had a limited impact on his numbers, but the fact that he's still in the 30s isn't a good sign for Republicans. You never want to get too comfortable in a race like this, but Beshear is looking pretty good.
DavidNYC :: KY-Gov: Beshear on Top by Double Digits
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KY-Gov: Beshear on Top by Double Digits | 25 comments
Has anyone polled Pand Raul's approval yet?
I wonder if Kentucky voters are having a sense of "buyer's remorse" in reverse to the teabagger Governors taking a popularity nose dive in Florida, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and in turn inadvertently helping Dem Senators running for reelection in those states.

Whether it's that or something else, Beshear must be thanking his lucky stars the election is this year, and not 2010.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

SUSA almost never polls approvals
Or if they do, they don't share them. I do note that they included cell phones in this poll.
[ Parent ]
They used to have the most
extensive collection of approvals out there. And then they stopped.

Probably their media clients stopped paying.

[ Parent ]
Yes
Those were extremely valuable. I meant to say that SUSA almost never includes approvals when testing horserace numbers, but yeah, they used to be great.
[ Parent ]
My recollection
is that it's how we knew Eliot Spitzer was doomed. If he'd had higher approvals, I think he may have survived his scandal.  
[ Parent ]
I suspect the recession killed those polls......
Those polls were non-client freebies that cost them money.  That they stopped during the recession, coinciding also with SUSA doing fewer polls (definitely fewer in the 2010 cycle than in the previous couple cycles), tells me they had to cut the expense.

On these polls like this KY-Gov one, they poll what the client, usually local TV stations not flush in cash, pays them to poll.  Every additional question is another bundle of cash the client has to pony up.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Now that I recall it
I believe SUSA's pricing plans do in fact work this way - you pay for the total # of questions. It's a weird way to do it, since length of calls and number of calls is a minimal expense when it comes to IVR polling. The biggest expense is obtaining voter lists. (This is why our WI recall polls had such insane sample sizes - Tom bought lists that were sufficient, in normal circumstances, to produce samples of around 600 or 800, as I recall. But the high level of engagement meant we got a much higher response rate than usual. PPP could have stopped making calls once we got to 800, but there really wasn't much additional expense in making the normal number of calls.)
[ Parent ]
Gatewood Galbraith
I'd be interested to see polling with him added; he's running as an independent. Yes, he's kind of a gadfly/perennial candidate, but he's staked out a position to the left of Beshear, so he could draw some votes. Plus he got 15% in 1999 on the Reform Party ticket.
The GOP had a weak candidate in 99
Peppy Martin.  Two gadfly opponents vs. Patton.  It led to a massive Patton win and probably had some folks willing to vote for Galbraith.  He only got 6% in the 07 primary, coming in 5th out of 6 above Otis "Bullman" Hensley.

28, male, NC-13 formerly NC-01, 04, 05, 07, 11
[ Parent ]
Galbraith won't make a difference
unless the election is super-close. He's run for like 500 different things, he's still not well known, and really he's not taken seriously at all. He definitely won't cut into Beshear's base of rural Democrats, and Jerry Abramson's presence on the ticket should keep most JeffCo liberals in line who might potentially think about straying.  

20, Democrat, KY-01
[ Parent ]
Where did Abramson come from?
What is his significance other than being the Lt. Gov. nominee?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Longtime Mayor of Louisville
to be honest, he's really taking a demotion to run for Lt. Gov. I'm glad he's running though.  

20, Democrat, KY-01
[ Parent ]
He means longtime(!), too
For those here that don't know him, Abramson had been mayor of Louisville since the mid 1980s, excepting a few years in the early 2000s when the city transitioned from the old city government into the new Metro Louisville system. I was genuinely shocked when he announced he was retiring.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Thanks, and btw....
Who are the candidates for Ag Commissioner?  Do Dems really have a good shot at winning this one too?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
To tell you the truth
I haven't been following that one very much and I don't know much about any of the candidates, sadly. I do know that neither side has another star like Richie Farmer in waiting, so I assume a Dem win is definitely possible. If Beshear's winning big that'll help all downticket Dems, of course.  

20, Democrat, KY-01
[ Parent ]
Only
thing that makes me hesitant is he is getting a big mining endorsement this time right? I think he'll get 55%.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
5% that is.


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
He did get the United Mine Workers endorsement
If he did end up playing spoiler, that would probably be why. But from what I gathered it was more a protest endorsement aimed at Beshear as opposed to any sort of stamp of approval of Gatewood. I don't think it will make much of a difference in the end unless, again, the race tightens significantly.  

20, Democrat, KY-01
[ Parent ]
Cross-Tabs!
http://barefootandprogressive....

Approval of the tea party in KY fell and is now even to the disapproval since last October.

Full cross-tabs:

Democrats
Beshear- 73
Williams- 19

Republicans
Beshear- 22
Williams- 68

Independents
Beshear- 42
Williams- 42

Conservatives
Beshear- 30
Williams- 60

Moderates
Beshear- 66
Williams- 27

Liberals
Beshear- 81
Williams- 9

Men
Beshear- 48
Williams- 44

Women
Beshear- 54
Williams- 35

Below 50 years old
Beshear- 48
Williams- 42

50 or older
Beshear- 53
Williams- 37  

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

Again,
SUSA shows young voters loving them some Republicans. 2008 Exit Polling shows that as whole voters under 50 were much stronger groups for Obama than 50+
[ Parent ]
Below 50 is not the youth demographic.
It could be those in their 30's and 40's while those over 50 are likely Yellow Dog Democrats.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Irrelevant
Among voters between 18-44, my I'm estimating, were a 53% McCain Demographic in 2008, compared to 60% for 44+, which means that there is still a discrepancy here, if a poll shows a significantly stronger Democratic performance among +50 voters.  
[ Parent ]
Perhaps it's different with KY-Gov
A prez race is a different animal.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Yeah,
Obama did manage to lose several counties that gave Mongiardo 80% of the vote against Jim Bunning.  
[ Parent ]
Also, Beshear/Abramson raise $1.27million in Q1
http://bluegrasspolitics.blogi...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
KY-Gov: Beshear on Top by Double Digits | 25 comments

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