Any plan that would force either Sen. Wyden or Sen. Merkley to be eliminated from the Senate...

Is pure, unadulterated villainy of the first order.

That being said, great work on this. I disagree on some of your conclusions, but it's an interesting thought experiment.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

---

by: SaoMagnifico @ Sat Apr 16, 2011 at 07:48:21 AM UTC

Yeah, Oregon's loss of a senator is a sad one

Maybe one of them could move to the Bay area?

The thought experiment was pretty much intended to lead to people disagreeing my conclusions. Any of them in particular you want to call out?

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

---

by: borodino21 @ Sat Apr 16, 2011 at 16:03:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The bay area would have enough Senator-aspirants

Namely, Dianne Feinstein, Barbara Boxer, Leo McCarthy, and (more fancifully) Nancy Pelosi, Gavin Newsom, maybe Ron Dellums...Tom Campbell, but good luck.

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

---

by: Xenocrypt @ Sat Apr 16, 2011 at 18:40:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Feinstein and Boxer would be in separate districts

Boxer is from the North Bay (and now lives in Riverside Co anyway), while Feinstein is from San Francisco.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

---

by: sapelcovits @ Sat Apr 16, 2011 at 22:33:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Should've looked at the map again (nt)

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

---

by: Xenocrypt @ Sat Apr 16, 2011 at 23:35:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Barbara lives in Oakland.

Babs lives in the dirty east bay with the rest of us.  She definitely does not live in SoCal (her husband works at a law firm in Oakland).  She did live in and represent Marin and Sonoma counties in the house.  

26, D, MO-05, Hispanic

---

by: 707stuckinKCMO @ Sun Apr 17, 2011 at 04:35:43 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

So why is her official residence listed as Rancho Mirage?

This article makes it sound as if she legit moved there as opposed to merely buying a house.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

---

by: sapelcovits @ Sun Apr 17, 2011 at 04:41:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Leo McCarthy?

   That's the late Leo McCarthy. He died a few months ago and hadn't been on anybody's political radar since the late 20th century.  Ron Dellums is still alive but old and damaged politically by an unsuccessful stint as Mayor of Oakland.

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

---

by: Zack from the SFV @ Wed Apr 20, 2011 at 08:31:03 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

NC

FWIW, there is virtually no doubt that the green Triangle/Triad district on your North Carolina map would be Democratic. That is far more assured than a blue-dog winning the Coast.

---

by: roguemapper @ Sat Apr 16, 2011 at 09:09:41 AM UTC

Using a 2008 baseline, they're all competitive

I roughed out the map on the version with 2008 data in Dave's App. The western district is 53% McCain, the central district is 54% Obama, and the coast is 51% McCain. So green has the largest partisan lean, but that's only D+1 on an '08 PVI.

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

---

by: borodino21 @ Sat Apr 16, 2011 at 16:16:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes, but

Check out the Hagan/Dole numbers. Hagan wiped out Dole in the central district: 57% to 43% with a 230,000 vote victory margin.

---

by: roguemapper @ Sat Apr 16, 2011 at 16:46:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Worse case

Even the underfunded and ignored Elaine Marshall in 2010 managed to pull 47% of the two-party vote in that proposed central district against Richard Burr. That's probably a worse-case scenario for Dems. And, Richard Burr would not likely be the incumbent in such a district anyhow, considering even the miserable campaigner Erskine Bowles would've beat him by a few hundred votes in 2004.

---

by: roguemapper @ Sat Apr 16, 2011 at 17:02:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Good points

Obama numbers do only go so far.

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

---

by: borodino21 @ Sat Apr 16, 2011 at 17:10:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yup

And in our alternate universe, Jim Hunt would probably still be the incumbent senator in that district since his election in 1984.

---

by: roguemapper @ Sat Apr 16, 2011 at 17:18:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

NC would have only had two seats in 1984

They would have picked up the third seat in the 2000 census. (Here's the 1990 priority value list.) What would east and west NC districts have looked like over the 1980 - 2000 time frame?

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

---

by: borodino21 @ Sat Apr 16, 2011 at 17:43:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Probably something

like this. But I don't have any personal familiarity with the data.

---

by: andgarden @ Sat Apr 16, 2011 at 17:46:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Helms/Hunt Map

Here's a map for the 1984 Helms/Hunt election (red is Hunt). This should give you a good idea of how the hypothetical districts might've been drawn. In short, it probably would've been the Triangle & the Coast in one district with Charlotte and the Triad in the other.

The eastern district would've been solidly Dem. The western district would've been a swing district (Charlotte and the Triad were usually far more Republican leaning in the 1980s than they are now).

Hunt would all but surely be the current incumbent of whatever district included Raleigh, if not since 1984 (say, if another Democrat was already the incumbent) then since whenever the district next came open.

---

by: roguemapper @ Sat Apr 16, 2011 at 17:56:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thanks, andgarden and roguemapper for the NC data

While we're on the subject of 1990 to 2000 seat changes, it looks like the 2000 census would have cost California, Alabama and Louisiana seats to the benefit of Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina.

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

---

by: borodino21 @ Sat Apr 16, 2011 at 18:05:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I should add

The hypothetical western district would've been swingy if you had a conservadem running - say, a Heath Shuler type. Otherwise, it would've been lean-to-likely Republican.

---

by: roguemapper @ Sat Apr 16, 2011 at 18:26:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I've actually given some thought to this

before myself. It would probably finally ensure continuous--and roughly proportional--black representation in the Senate. I've never run the numbers before, though.

Anyway, as to your assumed divisions: I think you were too generous with your assumptions to Democrats in some places (i.e., New York) and not enough in others (Florida). The upshot is that I think your final count isn't far wrong. But what the numbers don't capture is that the new Democratic caucus would almost surely be much less conservative than the existing one. That's because this system goes a long way (though not all the way) towards addressing a grotesque rural bias in the existing Senate.  

---

by: andgarden @ Sat Apr 16, 2011 at 13:52:12 PM UTC

Excellent point

about the changed nature of the consitutencies leading to changes in ideological balance. And you're also right about this not solving the rural bias -- Wyoming still has about eight times as much representation than it ought. And of course, single-member districts are still biased against us as well.

With Florida, I was thinking that there might be an effect akin to a lot of Michigan's congressional districts -- the one Democratic city in each district is drowned out by suburbs, exurbs, and rurals. Which Florida districts do you think we should be expected to hold?

As for New York, I just roughed the map out in the version on the DRA that has 2008 partisan data. NY-01 is Obama+5, NY-02 is Obama+20, NY-03 is Obama+29, NY-04 is Obama+0, and NY-05 is Obama+1. I think that calling that a 3-2 split is pretty fair.

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

---

by: borodino21 @ Sat Apr 16, 2011 at 16:36:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

53-47?

I'd like to know what your assumptions are for your ratings. It can't really be a "neutral year" because then it would be 50-50 or a small GOP majority.

I don't know the partisan tendancies of the Texas districts but 4-3 Dem seems like it would be hard to get without a pro-Dem gerrymander.

---

by: Nichlemn @ Sat Apr 16, 2011 at 14:52:09 PM UTC

My assumptions were mostly intuitive and somewhat arbitrary

Despite the amount of time I devoted to the post-jump part of the diary, it's the pre-jump part that I find particularly interesting and important: just how badly apportioned the Senate is. The post-jump part is more whimsical, and obviously without the full context of the alternate universe is hard to figure out. When was each seat elected? Are a third of these each from '06, '08, and '10, and if so, which third is which? If it's some other system, then what? For now, I suppose the best method of evaluation is akin to whatever you use when evaluating House maps - whether that's best case, neutral year, or worse case, depending on your tastes.

On Texas, it pretty much is a pro-Dem gerrymander. (Which then requires the question, who is drawing the lines? For my maps, I'm thinking that the Library of Congress has the job of drawing them as a technical exercise. Your version of the alternate universe may differ.)

I roughed out the map on the special data version of Texas in Dave's App. TX-02, TX-03, and TX-05 are, in fact, uber-Republican votes sinks, voting for McCain at 64%, 64%, and 71%, respectively. Obama won the other four districts. Contrary to my intuition, TX-07 is actually the most Democratic, at 56% Obama. The three metropolitan districts apparently contain many more suburbanites that I expected. TX-01 voted 55% Obama, TX-04 52%, and TX-06 53%. The last two, therefore, would probably have GOP-favored PVIs, and giving them to us under neutral year conditions is probably wrong. (Although a local Dem would be able to tailor themselves to the district better than Obama did. Senator Doggett, maybe?)

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

---

by: borodino21 @ Sat Apr 16, 2011 at 16:01:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

BTW, you're missing something:

exactly how much would this address inequality? What is the standard divisor? Population variance? Biggest district? Smallest district?  

---

by: andgarden @ Sat Apr 16, 2011 at 16:35:54 PM UTC

Is true

I figured someone would ask for that eventually. I haven't done the math yet, so I don't know. Maybe later on today...

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

---

by: borodino21 @ Sat Apr 16, 2011 at 16:38:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

BTW, I have an intuition

that your apportionment method isn't right. The last time I did the rough division, I found that Pennsylvania was entitled to about exactly two senators based on population. As I recall, you can't just use to same "entitlement" list if you change the size of the House. You actually have to do the Huntington-Hill calculations again.  

---

by: andgarden @ Sat Apr 16, 2011 at 16:40:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't think that's right

My understanding is that point of Huntington-Hill is precisely that the size of the body doesn't matter. It's iteratively asking the question, "If we added one more seat to this body, who would get it?". That's why you can look at the priority list, and see who just made and just missed the cut.

And even though straight intuition doesn't mesh all that well with Huntington-Hill, US population is about 300 million. Divided by 100 is 3 million per senator. Pennsylvania population is between 12 and 13 million -- that's four senators.

Also, as a very partial answer to your questions about the math, rounding the populations of the states with multiple senators to the nearest million, then dividing by the number of senators, results in a range of 2.5M per senator (Colorado and Minnesota) to 4.0M per senator (Ohio and Virginia), with a mean of 3.3M per senator.

It looks like Alabama is the largest Senate district, at 4.8M. Wyoming is still the smallest, at 0.6M. (Although now with just one senator instead of two!)

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

---

by: borodino21 @ Sat Apr 16, 2011 at 17:08:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's entirely possible

that my recollection is wrong--it's been a few years.  

---

by: andgarden @ Sat Apr 16, 2011 at 17:10:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

No more statewide senators?

I would have assumed that all senators would be statewide, even in places like California where there would have to be 10 statewide seats (plus governor, etc.). As far as senate elections go, why not stay with six-year terms? Here's how it could work: States with more than three are divided up as evenly as possible: Calif 3-3-4, TX 3-2-2, Fl 1-2-2, NY 2-2-1, Illinois 2-1-1, Penn 1-2-1, with a running total of 10-10-9. The five states with three would be even for a running total of 15-15-14. The 11 states with two would be divided up similar to the way states are now, with no state having two up at once, for a running total of 22-22-22. The last 28 states with only one would be divided up as evenly as possible to get the total up to 33 one year, 33 two years later, and 34 two years after that. I like that better because the senate is constitutionally supposed to be more immune to short-term trends, whereas if they were all elected every four years it would go back and forth from like 65-35 one way and then back the other way. The senate is also supposed to represent the states, so that's why I thought they should all be statewide. Here I'm compromising with the Connecticut compromise.... =] if you know what I mean.

Anyway, if you assume that all the states that currently have two senators of the same party would have senators of that party in this method, then you have 67 senators easily decided, and they would go this way: 26 R and 41 D, although I think the case could be made that a few of those Dems, like Montana's lone senator, or one or both of Virginia's two senators, or WV's senator, etc. might be Republicans--but for the purpose of this exercise, we'll assume that the current senators from those states would run and could win. Then, there are 33 states that right now have a divided senatorial representation. I'll go through each, and decide what would most likely occur:
Alaska's lone senator: R
Arkansas' lone senator: R (not sure?)
Florida's five senators: I'll go with 3 R, two D
Illinois's four senators: 3 D, 1 R, assuming Kirk could win.
Iowa's lone senator: D, just to offset Arkansas, which I'm having similar problems deciding.
LA's lone senator: R
Massachusett's two senators: Alright, Scott B., I'll give you a seat, as much as I'd like not to: 1 R, 1 D
Missouri's two senators: We'll keep the current representation: 1 R, 1 D
Nebraska: 1 R
Nevada: Hmm. Harry Reid could win this race, I think: 1 D
New Hamp: Hmm, again. I'm going to sat 1 R, to offset Nevada
N.Carolina: 2 R, 1 D
N. Dakota: 1 R
Ohio: 1 R, 1 D
PA: I hate Pat Toomey, but I think a moderate Republican could win Pennsylvania under normal circumstances (but not him): 3 D, 1 R
S. Dakota: 1 R
WI: 1 R, 1 D (to keep the status quo)

So. Where does that leave us? 44 Republicans, 56 Democrats. I kind of like this representation!

---

by: bfen @ Sat Apr 16, 2011 at 16:38:31 PM UTC

That would certainly be another way of doing it

Although I'm still not sure how to make seats move between states and keep the one-third rotation going.

Thanks for your input!

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

---

by: borodino21 @ Sat Apr 16, 2011 at 17:11:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I actually think your green district in Illinois would be a Republican

You threw in some Dem parts of Lake Co. and a few Dem areas like Evanston, but you added all of DuPage County and the most Republican parts of Cook County. Your IL map would likely go 3-1 Republican in a D+8 state, which should immediately silence anyone whining about Democratic gerrymanders or whatever.

Conversely, however, I think your red district in PA would go Dem. You have all of Allegheny and Erie Counties, and some counties in the district that vote R for president, such as Butler and Fayette, voted for Casey in 2006 by more than his statewide margin. Casey or a similar candidate could win that district for sure.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

---

by: sapelcovits @ Sat Apr 16, 2011 at 17:45:51 PM UTC

Minnesota tends to elect a fair number of Republican senators

I think the out-state Senator would be much more likely to be Republican. The Dems would have Duluth, but the Republicans would have the ex-urbs and the rural areas (Mankato and Rochester are swingy)

---

by: gopherprof @ Sat Apr 16, 2011 at 18:10:46 PM UTC

Who's the Senator frolm Los Angeles?

Jerry Brown, circa his run against Pete Wilson, running here instead?  Tom Bradley?  Antonio Villagrosia?  Sheila Kuehl?  Maxine Waters?  Someone named Hahn?

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

---

by: Xenocrypt @ Sat Apr 16, 2011 at 18:33:34 PM UTC

you really like the dead politicians

   Tom Bradley? He has been gone a lot longer than Leo McCarthy. Maybe you shouldn't comment on CA if you haven't followed its politics since the late 20th century...

   You do get a pass for misspelling Antonio's name. Most people (or at least most Anglos) get it wrong. It is Villaraigosa.

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

---

by: Zack from the SFV @ Wed Apr 20, 2011 at 08:39:49 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Don't have to be so disgruntled with me

I don't even remember what I was probably thinking, but it is just as interesting to wonder what the past Senators were as the current.  Also, who knows--maybe something about being a Senator prolongs the lifespan.  

Also, way to insult me without trying to answer my question, even.

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

---

by: Xenocrypt @ Thu Apr 21, 2011 at 03:41:03 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

For the record

If you are going to do it this way, you might as well just disband the Senate (or greatly diminish it's power compared to the House).

On a different note, it's times like this I wish DRA would let us cross state-lines, I'd love to remake the entire United States to make 50 states that are a lot closer to each other in population (and as Democratic as possible, I'd love to create a few majority-black states in the south!)

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

---

by: DGM @ Sat Apr 16, 2011 at 19:09:50 PM UTC

I live in Illinois, and your districts would usually go 3-1.

Obama vs. McCainnumbers are very skewed here. For example, Joe Walsh's district is really about R+3.5 (in my opinion), and Bob Dold's is About D+2.5. The suburban district would be swingy, but would lean R due to DuPage county, and the mostly Republican areas of Cook you've added.
Also, that green Maryland district would be a toss-up, and I think maybe around R+1. It contains Andy Harris' CD, the GOP parts of Ruppersberger's, as well as Roscoe Bartlett's CD. Chris Van Hollen's district would also be in here, but that would bring the PVI back down to around even, in my opinion.

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

---

by: TokenRepublican @ Sat Apr 16, 2011 at 22:51:43 PM UTC

I agree with you on IL, as I posted above

However,I did his MD-01 on Dave's App and found that it went about 53-45 Obama but the 2006-2008 average is 55-45 Democratic.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

---

by: sapelcovits @ Sat Apr 16, 2011 at 23:03:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hmm...

What is the 2006-2008 data from? If it's solely Congressional results, that'd be a bit skewed in my opinion. Wayne Gilchrest was not generic R (so much crossover appeal), and the Rs really don't run anyone competent against CVH. Also, Republicans never seriously challenge Ruppersberger, even though he's only in a D+7.  I still think it'd be a tossup or a slight tilt D, and if a Republican like Connie Morella ran...

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

---

by: TokenRepublican @ Sat Apr 16, 2011 at 23:42:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

If Wayne Gilchrest got teabagged, Connie Morella would be DOA

also, I'm not sure what the 2006-2008 data is from (I'm guessing statewide only), but your point about Wayne Gilchrest suggests that if anything, it would be skewed towards the Republicans. It's also worth pointing out that Baltimore County has lots of conservadems who won't vote for a black candidate but would probably vote for a white congressional candidate. Lastly, the trends in Frederick and Washington counties are in our favor.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

---

by: sapelcovits @ Sat Apr 16, 2011 at 23:54:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Bob Ehrlich?

He probably won that outer district of MD big in all three of his runs for Governor.  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

---

by: MassGOP @ Sun Apr 17, 2011 at 00:40:05 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm saying that Congressional data would be skewed in each CD, and

Gilchrest's crossover and Ruppersberger's lack of a true challenger would cancel each other out.

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

---

by: TokenRepublican @ Mon Apr 18, 2011 at 00:31:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm confused

you said it was skewed before. so then it's not skewed?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

---

by: sapelcovits @ Mon Apr 18, 2011 at 00:38:14 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

All three are a bit skewed, as I've explained.

Ruppersberger- no real challengers (skew way D)
CVH- no real challenger (skew way D)
Gilchrest- good crossover appeal (skew way R)
Bartlett- Duck was a good candidate, and Bartlett isn't really inspiring (no skew). Therefore, a net skew for Team D.

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

---

by: TokenRepublican @ Mon Apr 18, 2011 at 02:39:31 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

*3 of the 4 seats in that district

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

---

by: TokenRepublican @ Mon Apr 18, 2011 at 02:39:52 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm not really convinced

CVH really doesn't overperform his district that much (he won 75-22 as Obama won 74-25) and Ruppersburger's district has lots of white conservadems who are hesitant to vote for a black candidate.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

---

by: sapelcovits @ Mon Apr 18, 2011 at 07:04:25 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Maryland

Montgomery County is the only Dem stronghold in that MD-1.
Here is a better distribution of Maryland

Maryland is better off split into east/west than inner/outer.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

---

by: duffman @ Sun Apr 17, 2011 at 02:39:15 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

In partisan terms, it is better

But black voters might well want a better shot at electing a Senator. And this map makes it harder (though I think the green district is not out of the question).  

---

by: andgarden @ Sun Apr 17, 2011 at 02:51:09 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

in that case

could we trade (on the original map) Howard County for some Republican parts of Baltimore County

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

---

by: duffman @ Sun Apr 17, 2011 at 04:46:04 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Interesting diary.

And kudos for taking the time to actually crunch the numbers. One thing I've always considered interesting would be if the U.S. had a unicameral legislature and the House was expanded, (maybe to five-hundred thirty-eight members) but I'm too damn lazy to actually do the math.

And I agree with some of the other commentators above; I think PA would be 3-1 Dem in most years, especially if you swapped Cambria County for some of the northern central counties in PA-04.

20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)

---

by: koolbens @ Sun Apr 17, 2011 at 04:50:41 AM UTC

Just out of curiosity on the Michigan data...

I decided to make a similar map and see what the stats were on the Voting Age Population. My MI-01 doesn't contain all of Oakland County, but the portions of Macomb have about the same % of Whites/AA as the portions of Oakland now in my MI-02 do.

MI-01

VAP is 64% White, 28% Black, 4% Hispanic, 4% Asian, <1% NA, 2% Other. For D's, Senator Carl Levin, Rep's. Sander Levin, Gary Peters, Hansen Clarke, John Conyers and John Dingell live here. For R's, Representative Thad McCotter lives here. Safe D.

MI-02

VAP is 86% White, 7% Black, 3% Hispanic, 2% Asian, <1% NA, 1% Other. For D's, Senator Debbie Stabenow and Rep. Dale Kildee live here. For R's, Gov. Rick Snyder and Rep's Dave Camp, Tim Walberg, Mike Rogers and Candice Miller live here. Safe D most years, Lean D ala-2010.

MI-03

VAP is 88% White, 5% Black, 4% Hispanic, 1% ASian, 1% NA, 1 % Other. The Democratic bench is, as of now, dry at the federal/state level, but for R's, LG Brian Calley and Rep's Fred Upton, Bill Huizenga, Justin Amash and Dan Benishek live here. Tossup to Lean R in a good Dem year, but Lean R to Safe R most of the time. Maybe in 10, 20 years Lean D, but unlikely.

I have no idea where in Oakland County SOS Ruth Johnson lives, or where Bill Schuette lives now.

20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)

---

by: koolbens @ Sun Apr 17, 2011 at 22:11:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Virginia

I would not be so quick to give both VA Senate Districts to Dems.  Although both would be competitive, the "South Virginia" district would be more amenable to Republicans.  It just barely went to Obama (50.7-49.3), but average is 52-48 GOP. "North Virginia" is 52.8-47.2 Obama and average is 50.2-49.8 for Dems (but see below).

Can some one with a better understanding of Dave's Redistricting app help me with a question? I recreated the 2 Senate districts from this thread and I am not missing any precints.  I get a total Obama vote of 1,653k whereas the Virginia SBE gives Obama's total as 1,960k (McCain's totals are 1,543k in Dave's App and 1,725k per Virgina SBE).  Where are the missing votes?  Could it be due to absentee ballots?  Depending on how the missing 307k Obama votes and 182k McCain votes were distributed, McCain may very well have won "South Virginia".

25, Male, VA-07 (Currently in France)

---

by: RVA_Exile @ Mon Apr 18, 2011 at 14:47:18 PM UTC

Every single map you have, IMHO, feels like a Republican Gerrymander except

for Texas.  What a beautiful Dem gerrymander that would be.

Dems would dominate the south texas district, the San An/Austin District, the Houston district (because you take out the Republican NW suburbs, and probably take the Dallas district as you are sparing it the heavily R western suburbs of Fort Worth.

Those green yellow and purple district have probably less than 100k votes for Obama in them, combined.  A republican map would divide the san/an and austin district and would surely have the purple district take in some south Dallas precints to make it more republican.  Also, they would probably put most of east houston in the green district and stretch the Houston district into the N and NW suburbs, making it republican.  

Basically, the R's would surely only give us one dem district, and that would the the S. Texas one.  This map is so beautifully gerrymandered for the dems it makes me want to weep with joy.  I wish it would come true.

The rest of the map is most assuredly an R gerrymander, as you are simply taking cities and sequestering them to one mega dem 'senate' district, while letting republicans run free in R+5/7 'big' districts.

---

by: badwolf @ Mon Apr 18, 2011 at 17:07:52 PM UTC

Single-member districts are pretty much

inherently R-gerrymandered. I went for compactionist district mostly to show how population is distributed. If the alternate universe also had state governments drawing the lines, I'm sure that they would be drawn differently.

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

---

by: borodino21 @ Fri Apr 22, 2011 at 23:55:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]