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SSP Daily Digest: 4/15

by: DavidNYC

Fri Apr 15, 2011 at 8:27 AM EDT


Senate:

FL-Sen, FL-Gov: Suffolk University does a little poking around in the Sunshine State and finds that Sen. Bill Nelson winds up with rather good 43-24 favorables (including strong 30-39 marks among Republicans). Rick Scott, though, not so good... he's gasping at 32-47 overall. (President Obama stands at 48-44.) Suffolk also tested the GOP Senate primary (see Q.14 on p. 3), but no one scores higher than 7% in their kitchen sink head-to-head hypothetical, so I can't say it's worth very much.

NE-Sen: Dem Sen. Ben Nelson says he raised over $1 million in Q1 and has $2.3 million on hand.

NJ-Sen: Dem Sen. Bob Menendez apparently raised $1.6 million in Q1 and had about $4 million on hand.

NV-Sen: Interesting: Aaron Blake is telling his WaPo colleague Felicia Sonmez that the DSCC is formally endorsing Rep. Shelley Berkley in her bid for Senate. This is probably a message to Byron Georgiou that he might want to think about finding something else to do.

PA-Sen: Dem Sen. Bob Casey took in $1.1 million in Q1 and has over $2.1 million on hand.

Gubernatorial:

PA-Gov: Tom Jensen loves the re-do polls, and so do we, of course. This time, it's Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Corbett, who would lose in a hypothetical rematch to Dan Onorato by a 49-44 margin. Corbett's job approvals are at a sucky 34-44, which is interesting because unlikely the other Republican governors PPP's been testing, Corbett hasn't been caught at ground zero in labor-related disputes or (ala Rick Scott) in endless conflagrations with legislators in his own party.

RI-Gov: Brand-new Gov. Lincoln Chafee says he might run as a Dem if he seeks re-election in 2014 - and also says he might not endorse President Obama for re-election. At first I imagined he was trying to preserver wankerish "moderate" credentials, but if you read the linked article, you'll see he actually criticizes Obama from the left for giving away too much in the recent government shutdown showdown.

House:

IA-03: Could the truly crazy Rep. Steve King really be scoping out a potential run in the proposed new 3rd CD? King, as you know, would be thrown into a new 4th CD with fellow Republican Tom Latham if Iowa's new maps pass into law, as expected. That's not a particularly appealing choice, but would a matchup with Dem Rep. Leonard Boswell in the new 3rd be any better? Blogger desmoinesdem, who lives in the 3rd, says she received a robocall from King asking if she supported a "total repeal of Obamacare." Another commenter at Bleeding Heartland says he, too, received the same call - but he's in the new 2nd, so it may just be that King is trying to raise money from Obama haters throughout the state. (The call included options for offering to donate to King.)

LA-03, LA-07: With Louisiana's new maps becoming law (see bullet below in Redistricting Roundup), the big issue now is what happens between Republican Reps. Charles Boustany and Jeff Landry. The CW has long been that Landry, a teabagger who beat an establishment GOPer for the seat, would be left out in the cold. But I'm starting to wonder if maybe the knives will be out for Boustany instead. Boustany, you'll recall, very nearly derailed the entire redistricting process late in the day, prompting all five other Republican congressmen to ask that mapmaking be delayed for an entire year. An angry state legislature refused to entertain that possibility, but there was still a lot of ill will toward Boustany. Indeed, Rep. John Fleming said of Boustany last week: "I don't feel like I can trust anything he says. Everything he told me, he reneged on." In any event, Boustany says he raised a not-especially-impressive $230K in Q1. I'll be very curious to see what Landry took in.

MT-AL: Republican businessman Steve Daines announced he raised almost $200K and will report $330K on hand as he pursues Rep. Denny Rehberg's open seat. Dem state Rep. Franke Wilmer said she's only raised $10K so far, but adds that she hasn't been able to fundraise as much as she'd like because she's in the middle of the legislative session.

NV-02: Now things are getting interesting. Retired USS Cole Commander Kirk Lippold officially announced his entrance into the race for Dean Heller's open seat, making him the second Republican to get in. I say it's interesting because we might soon have at least three serious (well, "serious") candidates in the race, giving Sharron Angle a plausible shot of capturing her party's nomination. (The other expected entrant is Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki, who said he'll wait until the legislative session ends in June to announce.)

NY-26: Dem Kathy Hochul has a new ad up touting her leadership in the War on Tollbooths. It's actually her third ad; her second is an attack ad, going after Republican Jane Corwin for being a phony on spending cuts. NWOTSOTB.

PA-11, PA-17: Lackawanna County Commissioner Corey O'Brien, who staged a rather unsuccessful primary challenge to now-ex-Rep. Paul Kanjorski last year in PA-11, basically ruled out another run for Congress, and said he definitely won't challenge Rep. Tim Holden in a primary if Lackawanna gets drawn into Holden's 17th CD.

Grab Bag:

DCCC, NRCC: Despite having gotten its ass kicked last year and having sixty fewer members to lean on for donations, the DCCC had a monster first quarter, raised $19.6 million and cutting its debt by more than half, from $17.3 million to just $8 mil. By comparison, the NRCC took in just $18.1 million and has the same amount of debt - but it started off with much less. Republicans have twice our cash-on-hand, though ($9 mil to $4.6 mil). We'll bring you a full chart with all the committee numbers once they all report.

VETO: I don't really have a good place to put this, but you just gotta click the link and check out the pics of Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer vetoing a bunch of Republican legislation. Pure awesome.

Redistricting Roundup:

Iowa: Both houses of the state lege have now approved Iowa's new maps by very broad margins, and they go to Gov. Terry Branstad for his signature - or veto. He has three days to decide, but it would be quite the bombshell if he chose to nuke things at this stage, especially since he's said he hasn't heard a "compelling reason to reject" the plans. Also, a great data point from Greg Giroux:

Braley now reps 48% of population in proposed CD1, Loebsack 54% of CD2, Boswell 57% of CD3, Latham 50%/King 47% of CD4

Louisiana: Gov. Bobby Jindal signed his state's much-fought-over new maps into law yesterday, and now they go to the Dept. of Justice for pre-clearance. The Legislative Black Caucus says it will oppose the maps (citing problems with all three: state House, state Senate, and congressional) and ask the DoJ to deny approval. However, the chair of the Legislative Democratic Caucus says " "Nothing jumps out at me and says [preclearance] will be a problem." Needless to say, quite a lot of folks at SSP disagree! Once the maps are submitted (likely in the next few weeks), Justice has 60 days to make a decision.

Missouri: New redistricting plans, crafted by the Republican-controlled legislature, are getting closer to Dem Gov. Jay Nixon's desk, but he hasn't yet said whether he'll veto them. Republicans sound divided as to what they think Nixon will do. To over-ride a veto, they'd have to bring a few wayward members of their own team back into the fold, and buy off a couple of Dems. I suspect they can pull that off.

Oklahoma: Just call it No Drama Oklahoma - so far, anyway. A state House committee passed a new map (PDF here), and the district lines for OK's five CDs have barely changed. (Helpfully, the map shows both the old lines and the new boundaries, so you can see just how minimal the differences are. It's still possible, though, that the Senate or the governor could try to push a plan which screws the state's lone Dem, Dan Boren. But it seems like legislators are more concerned with re-doing their own maps.

Texas: They might be our mortal enemies, but the folks who draw the lines in the Lonestar State share our penchant for ruthlessness when it comes to map-making. Like a mother eagle shoving her own babies out of her nest, Republicans in the legislature are dealing with the problem of unwanted teabaggers by drawing them out of their districts - and into districts with one another. Indeed, a plan by the chair of the state House redistricting committee would pit no fewer than 14 Republicans against one another, allowing the GOP to create a whole mess of new open seats in other areas. This isn't cat fud so much as it is the cat stuffing her mangiest kittens into the dryer herself.

Virginia: Bill Bartell of the Virginian-Pilot takes a detailed look at what the Democratic plan to turn the 4th CD into a majority-black district would mean, particularly for the seat's current inhabitant, GOP Rep. Randy Forbes.

DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 4/15
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Landry and Boustany
The problem for Landry is that the new LA-03 only consists of about 25% of his current district. Money isn't going to matter much when Boustany has been representing the overwhelming majority of the district for six years, while Landry has only been in office for a few months.

Sure
That is the problem for Landry, no doubt. But will the rest of the delegation sit on the sidelines? Or will they want to get Boustany back for trying to fuck them all? If the latter, then this is a problem Landry can potentially overcome.

[ Parent ]
Its gonna be fun
Boustany has the Dems on his side. Landry likely has the Congressional delegation (except for maybe Alexander) and the LA GOP. The LA GOP endorsed him in 2010 over Downer and I expect them to do that same again after Boustany told the LA Senate Republicans "Fuck the Republican Party". Supposedly Pete Sessions was also pissed at Boustany.  

[ Parent ]
Yeah
the district that Landry's home was dumped in almost looks exactly like Boustany's current district...just extended a bit further eastward.  I think Landry is toast no matter how much money he raises or support he gains from the other Reps.

The map drawn is basically the best Boustany could have hoped for.


[ Parent ]
Schweitzer-Gillibrand 2016
Seriously.  

i would he okay with that.
Schweitzer is my potus preference, as I said yesterday. But I think that Gillibrand is not ky top pic for vp. Not sure who is, mind you, but she does have the stigma of being a New Yorker. I fear that may eat into the populist vibe Schweitzer brings to the table.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
On the other hand,
she would energize the base in a way that Schweitzer might not, and our idiot media would actually pay attention to her because she was from a state that "mattered" (and she's young and photogenic, which Schweitzer isn't).

I also think Gillibrand comes across as down to earth enough that being from New York would matter less - after all, she's from UPSTATE New York, and doesn't have a Brooklyn accent or anything. Frankly, Bernie Sanders sounds more "New York" than Gillibrand.

Schweitzer's problem will just be getting enough coverage at the beginning to get more than 1%, because he's an outsider from a tiny state in the middle of nowhere. HRC might not run again, but you can damn well bet she'll have an anointed candidate who will suck up all of the media oxygen early. (Probably Gillibrand, heh...) The establishment will want to avoid a repeat of Obama 2008, even though it turned out ok for them in the end.  


[ Parent ]
Home states
I didn't know that the state a contender comes from matters so much in terms of media coverage.

Ironically, in the actual election, Montana might just matter more than New York, given the latter's votes are rather predictable.


[ Parent ]
Media States Probably Matter
I don't think there's much to home states mattering (though down thread there is note of research that shows being from a small state can hurt). But I think the media is naturally more inclined to cover the politicians they know, which for political media means extra attention to those around NYC (NY, NJ, CT) and DC (VA). I haven't seen empirical work supporting this, but intuitively I'd think it plays into the coverage that people like Christie, McDonnell, Warner, Kaine, and Schumer get.

[ Parent ]
Absolutely!
If it weren't for Harry Reid being Majority Leader, and if it weren't for John Ensign falling into so much "scandaliciousness", none of the Beltway media chatterers would really care who our Senators were. "Big Media States" like New York and California have a natural advantage. New York and DC are the big news media hubs, and LA is the traditional entertainment industry hub.

Otherwise, it's hard to imagine why Kirsten Gillibrand became so famous so fast, and why Dianne Feinstein can attract media coverage when she sneezes.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Regional disparities in media coverage
Coming from such a small country, it feels weird for this to be such a large factor.

Certainly something to take into account in future.


[ Parent ]
Schweitzer seems tailor made for the Iowa caucus,
which is more or less the be all and end all of the Democratic prmary. If he wins there, which I easily see him doing, he becomes a favorite in the rest of the primary.

[ Parent ]
Y'all realize Gillibrand was a center-right Blue Dog in the House, right?
I can't fathom how she "energizes the base." Sure, she's moved way left in the Senate, but she carries with her conservaDem baggage from her Upstate days.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
More or less nobody is going to remember/care
about her more conservative early days. It'll be much more "what have you done for me lately?"


[ Parent ]
Yeah
Honestly, what votes did she make that were so conservative anyways.  Its not like she voted to do anything sincerely right-wing.  NY-20 is plenty rural/conservative and the fact she won there twice is proof of her political skill and her ability to listen to constitueents and vote their will.

[ Parent ]
You mean her 2 years in the House?
Compared to what will have been 7 years as New York's liberal female senator, instrumental in passage of liberal pet issues like repealing DADT?

Give it a rest.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)


[ Parent ]
which no one cares about
her most memorable vote as a member of the House was against the bailout.

Sure, let's bring up her House days!


[ Parent ]
Dude, did you see Schweitzer's speach at the 2008 DNC?
He energizes the fucking base alright.

[ Parent ]
He may talk all folksy
But he is also very learned, which is a sure plus.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
disagree
As mentioned below, Gillibrand doesn't fit any of the NY stereotypes. I think that most of the people who liked Hillary would like her. IMO She's enough to Schweitzer's left to help motivate base Dems who might have preferred someone more liberal at the top of the ticket, but not so far left as to alienate swing voters who would otherwise be inclined to vote for him.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
gillibrand is a flip-flopper
if you want populist, schweitzer and sherrod brown seem better.  

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

[ Parent ]
Agreed on that last sentence.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
S Brown
He's more of a populist than Gillibrand is, but I think she would likely be a more effective running mate. He's to her left overall, but I don't think that's a real problem as he does fine in Ohio which is a tilt-R state. She's (to put it mildly) more telegenic than he is, and I think she'd be better at energizing younger voters who I suspect would see Brown as another generic older white guy. He also sometimes comes across as angry and somewhat backward-looking and I think Gillibrand's style would be a better fit for the sort of campaign I think Schweitzer would run.

Brown does better on geography as NY is off the table in any competitive election, but even half a point in OH could make the difference.  

41, Ind, CA-05


[ Parent ]
Also, if Schweitzer is the candidate it would likely
mean he had beaten Gillibrand in the primary (assuming she runs). I don't think Democrats want to have another cycle with a woman getting beaten in the primary and then compounding that with no women on the ticket.  

[ Parent ]
I agree
Sen. Gillibrand would just compliment Gov. Schweitzer so well on the campaign trail. Both are very telegenic, but Gillibrand is attractive and refined whereas Schweitzer is folksy and straightforward. Having a woman on the ticket would also be a huge boost (in fact I wouldn't mind that ticket being flipped for that reason, but I do think Schweitzer is more qualified for the top job right out the gate; I can easily see a Vice President Gillibrand running in 2024 if the Schweitzer presidency goes two terms, of course), and Gillibrand would make people sit up and take notice.

Sen. Sherrod Brown is a solid vote and a good advocate, but let's be honest: not that many people, even Democrats, know or care who he is. He's just another liberal white guy in Congress. Gillibrand knows how to work the talk-show circuit, she was on the news heavily during both the DADT repeal efforts and after Rep. Giffords was shot (and I expect her to continue to be a go-to Democrat for the Washington pundits and correspondents in the future), and she's dynamic on the campaign trail. She's also a much stronger fundraiser.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


[ Parent ]
I'd bet on a Hickenlooper/Clinton ticket...
Hick vs Warner will be the battle royale in the Dem Primary, Hillary Clinton won't run but will be the VP on Hick or Warner's ticket.  I think Warner will be too bland to have to follow President Obama.  Hick has a quirky charisma to him.  

Schweitzer won't "play" well in the north-east or either coast.  Hickenlooper will appeal to the same Mountain-West demo.  


[ Parent ]
i think clinton is calling it a career in 2012
She isn't going to be SOS in a potential Obama second term. She will be nearly 70 in 2016. I think she is done. However, if Gillibrand leaves office to be vp or whatever, I think CHELSEA Clinton may be the next senator from new york. How about THAT possibility?

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
Ew
Based on what credentials?

[ Parent ]
Credentials?
Who needs credentials? But think about it, she has a top notch education, is a successful business woman, has a famous last name, and is soon to be the sion of an American political dynasty. And she is like 2 year younger than former Senator Goodwin. I think she could win election in new york rather easy if the remnants of the Clinton political machine got behind her. She could raise copious amounts of cash, and would be supported by the best political staff money can buy. Don't dismiss it as a possibility.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
I'm not dismissing it
Just questioning. Carte Goodwin was a placeholder so I don't see the connection. I do think the Caroline Kennedy snafu would pale into insignificance with a Chelsea Clinton appointment.

[ Parent ]
who said anything about an appointment?
I think being appointed to the senate is often the kiss of death. I think the more likely scenario would be a placeholder followed by a special election to the senate by Clinton. She may well be president one day, and she wouldn't want to fuck that up by being the appointed senator that lost her first election for that seat. Imo goodwin was smart to step aside, and wait until Rockefeller retires, or the governor's mansion opens up.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
Ah
That would be different.

[ Parent ]
on top of that
Governor cuomo (i assume he wi still be governor in 2017) could appoint a senior statesman that is a declared placehilder only until the election can be scheduled. Perhaps former senator, or former us secretary of state, 70 year old Hilary Clinton perhaps? This is how politics works, and that exact scenario would not surprise me in the least.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
At the time it would matter
Cuomo would be in the middle of a second term so he could do what he'd want (I doubt he'd want to do 3 terms as guv).  Though i think its just as likely Cuomo runs for Pres.  it'd be funny if he lost the nomination and then Gillibrand ran for and won VP and he had to appoint Gilli's replacement, maybe he'd appoint himself lol.

And nothing will ever compare to the caroline kennedy fiasco, remember that had the dual prongs of the befuddled appointer and the befuddled potential appointee.  If Chelsea Clinton were considered, she couldn;'t possibly be worse-prepared than kenedy and Cuomo is infinitely more competent than Patterson.  


[ Parent ]
I think the VP offer would be too much...
to pass up.  She'd only have to campaign for 3-4 months rather than the two years if she ran for the top spot.  I think she retires to private life, but will start a non-partisan global "Womens Rights" initiative/charity to run.  To be the first woman VP would be the topper to her career.  

Her credentials as VP would be unmatched by anybody the GOP could pull outside of maybe Petraeus.  

Hickenlooper/Clinton vs Bush/Portman would be my guess at the moment. Florida/Ohio of the GOP ticket would be pretty tough to beat. Not to mention Jeb being married to a Mexican-American, and fluent in Spanish.  


[ Parent ]
Jeb wod be strong
He is much more competent than big brother. But he has his last name as baggage (and I believe that alone is his biggest weakness). Portman, we will see about him. I want to see how he handles life as senator. Hickenlooper is not the person I want to get the democratic nomination. He strikes me as being to the left or Obama, and I am not sure someone at that part of the political spectrum will be able win win after 8 year of Obama. And if history tells us anything the vp nominees will not be on anyone's radar this far out from the election. Bell presidential nominees often are off the radar this far out. How many people had heard of bush Jr. in spring of 95? How about Gore Jr. in spring of 87? Mayor Palin in spring 2003? Or state senator Obama in early 03? The answer to all of these questions would be damn few.  

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
Au contraire!
He strikes me as being to the left or Obama, and I am not sure someone at that part of the political spectrum will be able win win after 8 year of Obama.

I think he can, mainly because he's from a swing state and has to know how to frame progressive values in a way that wins. Not that long ago, Colorado was fairly hostile territory for Democrats. That's clearly changed. And in the future, especially as some Rust Belt states potentially move away from Dems and "Deep South" states continue to drift away, The West will become even more critical for us to win.

In fact, I think a Western progressive may just be more electable in the future than a Rust Belt "centrist".

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Western progressive
Such a candidate would almost have to be from Colorado, not only because its the only western/non-coastal state likely to elect a progressive but also because Colorado is big enough to have a major city, suburbs, rural areas and diverse populations and could in some ways be a microcosm of the US as a whole.  

I can't see a Schweitzer/Tester or even a New Mexico Udall being able to pull it off, but Hick in 6 years could have the credentials.


[ Parent ]
I see no indications that the Rust Belt
states are moving away from the Democrats. Why do you say that?

Other than that, you make interesting points.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
That's at least my perception
as rust belt states get older, aka, their young are moving to states such as VA/NC/WA/OR/GA/CO to our benefit. Under current conditions, older voters are R, so demographic trends in the Midwest favor Rs.

But if we can take advantage of the latest R Medicare fiasco, that may change.


[ Parent ]
Aren't the Rust Belt states
seeing growth coming from ethnic groups far more favorable to us than to the Republicans, for one thing? And where's the evidence that people are leaving Iowa, Ohio, and Michigan for North Carolina and Georgia? Did I miss something?

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Yeah, you did..
The young are leaving MI and OH in droves.  They go to college in state and move somewhere else to find jobs.  What are left are the uneducated and the old.  As for evidence, look no further then the census reports themselves.  Minority growth is not replacing the exodus fast enough to compensate.

[ Parent ]
Well, Michigan is in its own
special category, since it's the only state to actually lose population. But Ohio did see a population increase, albeit a small one, and the groups that are increasing appear to be the ones that are most friendly to us. This doesn't mean that they will continue to be friendly to us forever or will always show up, but if the growth rates keep up, it should be good for the long term. Perhaps there will be a dip in our fortunes because the older, whiter voters will show up in greater numbers, but that could be temporary, as the newer voters come through and as the older ones, um, die off. Plus, any sort of economic recovery could reverse these trends amongst whites, or accelerate the trends amongst non-whites.

Which specific Census information are you referring to, by the way?


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
Growing Ohio
I should also add that while the problem is more severe than I realized (a few minutes on Google does me good, it seems), it's not set irreversible, particularly because people seem more open to changes when they are more desperate. While I wouldn't count on a surge in population any time soon, it wouldn't surprise me to see a lot of immigrants being welcomed into the state, particularly if there's some improvement as far as immigration policy at the national level where they have an easier time moving around. This is even more true if the changes are more on the gradual end, I think. And if this process is strong enough to help the state's economy beyond what the national economic climate might provide--as people buy homes, buy products, and contribute to a broadening the tax base, for instance--it'll grow even faster.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I don't see it
I think she would only accept one "promotion" at this point and that would be to become POTUS. Can't see her as the VP - it just doesn't fit her personality. The President was smart to offer her SecState because it was the only way I think he could get her to be a part of his administration because of the importance of the position (traditionally the most conspicuous and prestigious Cabinet post).

I believe she is more likely to serve as another party "elder" like her husband and I could definitely see her throwing her support behind someone like Gillibrand.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05


[ Parent ]
Ohio and Florida aren't all they're cracked up to be these days
I'm pretty sure Obama won at least 270 EVs by a greater margin than he won either of those states.

[ Parent ]
Correct, but you never
want to cede a state like those from the outset.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Is Patraeous actually a Republican?
For all of the slobbering people like Palin have done over the thought of him running on the Republican ticket, I'm not sure there's ever been confirmation about his leanings. In fact, I remember reading him saying that people would be surprised to learn his beliefs. Is he a Democrat?

Anyway, perhaps Portman would take Ohio off the table, but if Jeb Bush is so powerful in Florida, why did Obama beat him in the last P.P.P. poll?

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
I have read definitively that Petraeus is, indeed, a Republican, BUT...
...any mention of him as a candidate is truly emotional masturbation by the Repubs.

It speaks to Republican desperation that they throw out names so willy-nilly as they do.  Petraeus, Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, it goes on like this.

As far as Petraeus himself goes, maybe he'd be fine as a VP running mate, but nothing more without actually spending 4 or 8 years as VP under a popular President.  He offers nothing except his military resume, and his military resume is based on wars the public turned against.  Petraeus himself remains respected, but he's an easy target on Iraq and Afghanistan.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Interestingly enough,
one of my bosses, who calls himself an Independent (which I think is true in this case, even if he is right-leaning), told me the other day he wishes Hillary Clinton would run. Why he thinks she'd be so drastically different than Obama is as president isn't clear, but were she to largely hold the coalition that Obama tried to and is is trying to again cobble together but add people like my boss that voted for McCain, she'd be unstoppable.

I agree that she's probably done, but she seems like a fighter, and if for some reason there seemed to be an opening and no clear candidate, I could see her reconsidering her retirement. Being elected the first female president after coming so close less than a decade earlier would be an incredible end to a hugely impressive career. She knows that, and she'd like to make history yet again in some way.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
I prefer Schweitzer
He's a great speaker, and I think his regular-guy image would go over well with a lot of swing voters in the mountain west and midwest. He wouldn't have to worry about the west coast or northeast in the general. Hickenlooper may have more appeal to coastal voters in the primary, but he is further left and comes across as a little geeky and I think he would have less crossover appeal.  

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
I don't understand this idea
that people would vote against Schweitzer because he seems a little folksky and rugged. There's a huge difference between being that and being a genuine hick, and the latter Schweitzer definitely is not. Plus, I suspect that if his politics were not only acceptable but actually preferable to a lot of the coastal voters, he'd be very attractive once it started to be drilled into their heads how successful he might be in the rest of the country.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I know a lot of Democrats...
And only one doesn't like Gov. Schweitzer, and it's pretty much just because of the gray wolf hunting issue (she loves animals more than people, I think).

He'd win Iowa for sure, which is a big deal.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


[ Parent ]
I remember that J. Bernstein
Wrote about how it's hard for people from low-population states to run national campaigns.   Although, I think the examples were Goldwater (AZ being small at the time), McGovern, and Palin, so I think they might have had other problems.

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]
Eh
Doesn't Arkansas count?

[ Parent ]
I don't remember
But VT, ND, SD, MT, AK, DE, WY, RI, HI, ID, NH, ME, NV, UT, NE, NM, WV are all smaller, so maybe it's not that small.  Looking at this, though, I'm pretty sure he didn't mention Dean or Biden.

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]
Biden doesn't count.
He gets the same media coverage as everyone else on the East Coast because Delaware is part of the BosWash media market. He could take the train to DC for Chrissakes.

MT is truly isolated by comparison, and you've got a lot of cultural differences as well. DE is "like" the media. MT really isn't.  


[ Parent ]
Schweitzer
Those are great pictures.  Unfortunately, I suspect the new Republican governor will sign all those bills into law in the next term.  Sigh.

[ Parent ]
It's possible
that the next GOP majority will be smaller and less crazy. Smaller is more likely.

[ Parent ]
dems had the majority.
Not sure if it is realistic they can take back the legislature in 2012 though. Time will tell

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
I'm alright with this
Schweitzer could very well be a media darling nationally. He could be the first "western" President (I'm not sure California - Nixon, Reagan too I guess -- counts given my meaning of western).

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

[ Parent ]
Ironically,
Schweitzer would be in the interesting position of being able to campaign AGAINST California, win most of the West easily, and probably still actually win California.  

[ Parent ]
I think a
Schweitzer-Gillibrand ticket risks trying to be everything to everyone. As others have accurately noted, Gillibrand isn't your stock NY politician with an accent, but she is a Northeastern liberal nonetheless. This ticket reminds me of a reverse Kerry-Edwards - borderline hypocritical. A presidential ticket isn't a sitcom, opposites don't always attract.  

NY-01/NY-19

[ Parent ]
It worked fine for Obama/Biden. In all honesty, I
don't think VP candidates matter very much to the outcome of the election.

[ Parent ]
I'd say that Obama and Biden
were less contrasting figures than Schweitzer and Gillibrand. Sure, Biden was an bland establishment figure and Obama was a fiery, young upstart, but, ideologically, there wasn't much space between them. Both were Senate liberals. Of course he needed someone with tons of foreign policy experience, but moreover Obama needed a safe choice to play second fiddle to him and reassure independents the next administration wasn't going to be all change, that some "politics as usual" would remain. Also, from what I've read, Obama wasn't thrilled with the prospect of picking Biden, but rather felt he was his only viable option and that they were stuck together.

It's hard to conceptualize a ticket being more radically opposed than an old, dull white guy and an energetic, youthful black guy, but I think Schweitzer-Gillibrand relies too heavily on the craven model of pairing "a little bit country and a little bit rock n' roll." Voters can see right through that stuff. A rural populist from what would be the smallest state to send a man to the Oval Office in I don't know how long and a New York liberal elitist (as she'll be painted)? I don't see it happening.  

NY-01/NY-19


[ Parent ]
I think it would be difficult to paint Gillibrand
as an elitist. She was basically being called an upstate "hick" a couple years ago. She sleeps with rifles under her bed, etc. If anything, she'd get the Sarah Palin "too much inexperience, too pretty" treatment.  

[ Parent ]
The thing is...
They have a lot more in common than you might think. They're both populists, they're both from the country when it comes down to it, and they both seriously know how to connect with voters even from across the aisle. Now-Sen. Gillibrand had two terms in the House of Representatives from a conservative district, and Gov. Schweitzer is the two-term governor of a red state. And while they both know how to play to the middle, and they're both fairly permissive on gun control issues (though I think Gillibrand in particular would naturally be gravitating toward a more authoritarian position after Tucson), they're both reliable progressive Democrats. Schweitzer comes in well to the left of his fellow Democratic governors of red states, Govs. Beshear and Beebe, and he's still strikingly popular.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Flip it and you've got a winner
Gillibrand should be on top of the ticket.

[ Parent ]
Hell yes.


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Some
rumblings about State Senator John Flanagan running for Suffolk County Executive. Should he run, and win, this would open up a seat held in the 32-30 split in the state senate. Unfortunately, since four dems currently caucus as the Independent Democratic Caucus, should a Dem win the election to replace him it wouldn't tip the power balance.

http://www.newsday.com/long-is...

22, Male, NY-03, Liberal Dem.


Not going to happen!
A) Flanagan pulls this con every couple of years. He head fakes a run for a higher office to get concessions and more power from the GOP Senate caucus. It's his version of the game Pedro Espada played. I would be shocked if Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos doesn't do everything in his power to buy off Flanagan and prevent this from happening.

B) If you think the 4 Dems who currently caucus as "Independent Democrats" wont come scurrying back if there is a chance for them to retake power than you are kidding yourself. These four are playing the "Amigos Game" only these 4 our actually honest Democrats who are sick to their stomach about the crooks who are in charge of the Democrats Senate caucus. The sad part is if they had the guts to do this "Independent Democratic Caucus" thing 2 yrs ago they could have undercut the "Amigos" crooked game and played their own for the cause of reform.

C) Even if the impossible happens and Flanagan runs for Suffolk County Ex and wins and a Dem wins his State Senate seat and the 4 "Independent Democrats" return to the fold the Democrats, the Democrats majority in the Senate would be dependent on the soon to be jail Carl Kruger.

IMHO I think there is MUCH better odds of another state senator (from either party) being indicted and going to jail then this happening!

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[ Parent ]
I don't
doubt much of what you said. I'm more worried Kruger's seat will go Republican due to Skelos's recent pandering in the budget negotiations for state funding Rabbi colleges. A lot of the Jewish base in that district has no problem supporting GOP causes, and may even be more closely aligned with Republicans at this point.
I do think that the IDC would flip back, but I'm also skeptical about a Dem's ability to win Flanagan's district. Then again, no one knows what anything is going to look like after redistricting, and Suffolk has been rolling towards a Dem enrollment advantage. Honestly, the whole thing is one big hypothetical right now.
In terms of another Senator getting indicted, Skelos wouldn't surprise me. Something about that guy just makes me think he's up to something no good, and I don't believe he's the smartest guy in the room either.

22, Male, NY-03, Liberal Dem.

[ Parent ]
Kruger's district
is relatively conservative, but it has a much better Dem bench than GOP bench for some reason.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Because there is no GOP bench there
because outside of Bay Ridge there are no Republicans in Brooklyn! Just conservative Dems who are willing to vote for a Republican Presidential or Mayoral candidate and vote Dem for everything else.

This is by no means an easy seat for the GOP to win. I would guess the Dems have a better shot a Flanagan's seat than the GOP at Kruger's (which is why Flanagan wont run).

But this being NYS watch for the GOP to try an recruit a conservative Dem to run as the GOP candidate in any special election for Kruger's seat.


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[ Parent ]
Who is aiming to run for Kruger's seat?


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
No one yet
Kruger is still in it and will be until the day they haul him off to jail. Once that happens Cuomo would have to call a special elections.

If Kruger is somehow able to beat the wrap (or if the trail drags on until next year) watch for Kruger to try and run for re-election!

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[ Parent ]
Assemblyman Alec Brook-Krasny seems to be the most likely candidate.


[ Parent ]
My money for the next to be indicted is on State Sen. Shirley Huntley
For sending over $400,000 to fake non-profits controlled by her family.

Although Wilson and Sampson could also go down for their crooked shenanigans.

Heck I think it would be harder to find a State Senator not in danger of being indicted than one that is!

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[ Parent ]
Oklahoma map
Man, I love that map (the design, not all the Republican districts).  Having the old and new district lines on the same map is so helpful.  Plus, the whole thing is clean and easy to read, not like some of the other maps we've seen (like the almost illegible VA maps).

Crowley has no words


24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

What the hell was that?
Performance art?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Plus, Oregon legislators "Rick Roll"


24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

I call BS on the PA-Gov redo poll
He'd win today by a larger margin.  Onorato was weak in Sept and is weaker today.  Corbett ahs done nothin in particular to change a single person's mind (literally nothing happens in PA state govt most of the time) so I have no idea what is going on with this poll.

My guess is they could have tested Corbett against just about any non-incumbent and the non-incumbent would win.


Do you live in PA?
Corbett has made massive education cuts that are going to lead to thousands if not tens of thousands of teachers being laid off around the Commonwealth and to huge increases in tuition at state universities all the while refusing to consider levying any taxes on natural gas extractors.

Any Governor who has to preside over a massive budget deficit and the resulting painful austerity measures is going to lose a lot of popularity.

25, Democrat, male, Currently living and voting in PA-2, originally form OK-1


[ Parent ]
People voted for cuts over higher taxes
See Elections, 2010.

Seriously.  He absolutely ran on a platform of:

1.  not taxing nat-gas extractors, possibly his biggest basic difference with Onorato on the issue of taxes.  The issue was discussed at every debate and the candidates positions were very clear.

2.  Education funding could not continue at current rates given state budget deficits.  At the debates, especially the pro-business one in late Sepetmeber, Corbett made this position known.

He actually didn't lose popularity.  I do live in Pennsylvania, Philadelphia proper.

The people who voted for Corbett would still vote for him today, those who voted for Onorato would vote for him today, and the same people who didn't vote at all (but will answer a poll stating they wished they voted for onorato) will also not vote again in 2014 when Corbett is re-elected...and I will bet any amount of money on that...dude is a serious darkhorse for GOP Prez/VP in 2016.



[ Parent ]
The electorate didn't internalized the ramifications of election in 2010
There's a big difference between saying that he'd cut education over raising property taxes and hearing of the seeng the impacts in your child's school when the funding is actually cut (he didn't exactly have the most detailed education plan anyways).

I will give him this though, his cuts were very politically shrewd in that they disproportionately target low-income and minority communities that already vote Democratic while having virtually no impact on the suburban communities that usually decide elections in PA. Case in point, the School District of Philadelphia has 1/10 of all the students in PA, but is bearing almost 30% of the costs of all the education cuts.

http://abclocal.go.com/wpvi/st...  

25, Democrat, male, Currently living and voting in PA-2, originally form OK-1


[ Parent ]
Well
It really is a disservice to the voting populace that whenever someone is elected with policies we think they shouldn't like that they weren't smart enough to understand.

Honestly, if you say you need to cut K-12 school funding, what else could it mean besides laying off teachers and closing schools?  What does this uninformed public think will happen, teachers will work for free?  People know what it means.  If you ask a parent to pay more in taxes to help their kids college, well, they'd be better served sending their kids to private schools.  When you ask someone to pay higher taxes for someone else's kids education, the response is pretty obvious.


[ Parent ]
He never said how big the cuts would be
During the campaign he never said all that much publicly about education at all other than that he strongly supported vouchers. The average voter would have no idea he planned to make massive cuts to education because he never said he would and never laid out a detailed education plan. Even if you read about the debate which you mentioned earlier you wouldn't know anything about his education policy other than that he didn't want to expand education funding - http://www.post-gazette.com/pg...

I just don't understand why you find it so hard to believe that a Governor who is proposing a multi-billion dollar austerity measure would lose some popularity. It's not like slashing education funding is ever popular and it's not like he campaigned on cutting billions and billions of dollars from education.

25, Democrat, male, Currently living and voting in PA-2, originally form OK-1


[ Parent ]
While its an unpopular thing to do
It doesn't mean the person who did it loses out.  Clinton raised taxes in 1993-4 and a few years later the country was running surpluses.  If education funding balances the budget that will matter more than teacher layoffs, just like with Clinton people remember budget surpluses more than higher taxes.

Also, its not like these cuts have imapcted anyone yet, its all a media phenomenon.  Its not like tuition at in-state universities has doubled since he was elected.

The fact that specifics weren't offered up in a campaign is nothing new to politics in the last 100 years, its fewer and fewer specifics each election.  This race was nothing...if people didn't understand education funding cuts would be big I don't know how they expected him to lower deficits, but maybe everyone should not be expected to understand basic arithmetic.  

We lost billions in fed govt funding, we need to balance a budget, hence billions need to be cut.  Ergo, the cuts need to be in the billions.


[ Parent ]
So you recognize
That there's a "media phenomenon" about the proposed education cuts - yet you don't think this "media phenomenon" might have hurt Corbett's standing?

[ Parent ]
Except that that's frequently the case.
See, all over the country, independent voters being shocked (shocked!) by newly-elected Republicans doing...pretty much exactly what they said they'd do.

Or, for that matter, with Obama and the Democrats trying to implement their platform in the prior period.

Independents are typically low-information voters.


[ Parent ]
I'm thoroughly convinced
That majority of all voters are low information voters.  that being said, the ultimate poll is on election days and these phone polls are just ridiculous when literally nothing much has changed since election day in PA.  

My ultimate point was that if the elction were held today Corbett would win by about the same amount he won in November.  On the flip-side, if the elction were held in 2012 with Obama at the top of the ticket, Onorato might actually win.  

However in 2014 I'm betting the economy will be substantially improved, taxes will be kept in check and people will have come to terms with education cuts and Onorato coasts to re-election, unless Casey (or to a lesser extent Sestak) runs against him.  I don't see Philly mayor Nutter running against Corbett in 2014 but that could be an interesting wildcard.


[ Parent ]
Btw sorry for the "do you live in PA comment?"
That sounded a little harsher than I intended.

25, Democrat, male, Currently living and voting in PA-2, originally form OK-1

[ Parent ]
That wasn't harsh at all, it was fair......
The first thing I did when I read that was to check your sig and the other commenter's sig, and saw you live in PA and the other doesn't have a sig.

That's a fair question when a commenter says something about your own state that you know is not true.

And you made a convincing case that Corbett has, indeed, slid in popularity the same as a lot of new GOP Govs.

And you're right that people last fall, as in most "change" elections, weren't voting for what Republicans offered.  They were voting against the party in power, that's all they really cared about.  Same was true in 2006 and 2008, although in a Presidential choice (as opposed to downballot on the same day) it's always far more a "choice" election than a referendum on the party in power.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Independents just don't go that deep
Most of them think that 5% of the Federal budget is spent on PBS, that the budget can be balanced today by cutting "waste, fraud, and abuse", and are against cutting specific anything that isn't "foreign aid".

If a pollster asked independents in 2008 if he supported Obama's heath care plan or "cap and trade", 60% would have said yes. 12 months later the same independents would be 70% against it.

Independents are extremely fickle. They have no problem holding contradictory positions on issues, or changes their positions on the issues.


[ Parent ]
I don't remember seeing you around
So let me welcome a fellow constituent of Chakah Fattah.  And, while I don't follow state government (I should), I do not think that "nothing happens" abates voter irritation.  But I did go through Harrisburg over the weekend, which seems to have a surprising number of strip clubs and porn stores nearby...we have a large state legislature.

I was annoyed with Corbett's commercials, where he talked about how the other guy raised taxes (or whatever) and he put away crooked pols.  Yeah, he was a county executive and you were attorney general...you couldn't have raised or lowered taxes if you tried.

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)


[ Parent ]
Haha Nice to meet a fellow Chaka Fattahn(?) as well
I assume you're likely also either in Center City, U-City or Manayunk.

As a total side note, it'll be interesting to see where such areas end up after redistricting. I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with Brady instead.

25, Democrat, male, Currently living and voting in PA-2, originally form OK-1


[ Parent ]
10th and South St, Center City
Pretty sure I became a Brady in 2010, though for the prior 10 years was in fattah's district.  I've always considered them to both be my reps to be honest, just representing different segments of Philly rather than different areas, if that makes any sense.

[ Parent ]
Center City
I think Broad Street remains the natural dividing line but who knows what those idiots will do.

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]
I think Center city is okay, and even Alison Schwartz.
Its those Gerlach/Meehan districts that irk me, they are swingy enough and if we had control we could really shore them up to be far more Dem but alas that will not happen.

I've heard rumors of somehow putting Fattah and Schwartz together, I can only imagine how that could even work.  It would be quite a map and I really don't understand how it would fit into the GOP master plan...but we'll see.


[ Parent ]
Its why Attorney general is the perfect springboard to Guv
See Cuomo, Nixon, heck even Jerry Brown was AG before his most recent Guv campaign.

Its not like we complain when our side has the same advantage.


[ Parent ]
Indeed
Also Beebe, Beshear, Sandoval, Gregorie, McDonnell...and Mead, Christie and Martinez were prosecutors.  That's 11 out of 50.

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]
Er, 12, with Corbett (nt)


25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]
The PPP voter sample is indeed way off, but still...
Even if you narrow the D advantage to a more modest, realistic margin, Onorato still comes out on top by a point or two. This race surely would be tighter now than in a uber-GOP-friendly cycle.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Depends on the assumption
If you believe Corbett voters turn into Onoorato voters I have to disagree.  If you believe non-voters come out and support Onorato based on 3 months of Corbett, maybe a few, but nothing near the 360K vote margin Corbett won by.

Sadly, increasing Dem turnout in Philly in anything but a presidential year is just not easy.  And this is where Dem support is its strongest.


[ Parent ]
I think you're misreading the poll yourself......
I didn't read PPP's write-up, but if they're arguing bluntly that Onoroto would win a do-over today, then yes you're right.  An actual election would be more complicated than initial reactions from voters to a hypothetical.

But the fair consideration of the question is what does it tell us about Corbett?  It's basically just a second way of measuring his approval/disapproval.  Asking directly on approval/disapproval is one way, but asking to choose between the officeholder and his previous very recent opponent is a different way that's equally valid and tells you something very different.

I think this poll tells us that people last fall really just didn't consider Onorato.  They considered the letter of the alphabet next to each candidate's name, and they probably considered Corbett and Rendell more than Onorato.  So it's a fair question when its result is interpreted in that light.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Pretty surprised
So you mention all of Corbett's plans to cut education spending... but you think that somehow just because he "ran" on that platform, that that's all locked in, and no one could now get pissed off about it? That's just not how politics works, for a whole variety of reasons.

Also "calling bs" on a poll is very extreme language, in my view. I think it's one thing to you say you think a poll is inaccurate. But saying a poll is "bullshit" is almost casting aspersions on the pollster. That's unwarranted.


[ Parent ]
My point isnt that simple
It's that he ran on all of this and has only been in office 3 months and I can't thong of a single law that been signed by him that's actually in effect.  To me this poll reminds me of all the GOPers crying "i want my country back" during the health care debate before the law even passed.

[ Parent ]
Yeah
And Democrats' poll numbers started to tank in the summer of 2009 during the town hall craziness - half a year before the law passed into effect. The passage of legislation into law is almost irrelevant to political perceptions.

[ Parent ]
I just think PA is more like NY
Preface: I grew up in NY-20 and now live in Philly.

Corbett campaigned on what I've stated in other posts, and seems to be delivering, yet its apparently causing this groundswell of anti-Corbett sentiment amongst Dems (i.e. Philly) and living here I just don't feel.

On the other hand, in NY Cuomo has also reduced education spending and alot of educators are lsoing jobs (my brother is out of his job as principal, sister-in-law reduced to hal-time Spanish teacher) and his approvals are like a net-30 positive.  

I find that dichotomy baffling, especially w/r/t the fact the Corbett, from what I've seen/heard, has done nothing like Walker/Kasich/Ind Legislature in terms of going after teahcer's unions.  I just don't get why Corbett would viewed so poorly and Cuomo so highly, when I thought they were both cutting roughly the same amount as promised int ehir respective campaigns (from the education budget) and both causing in-state tuition to go up and K-12 teacher layoffs.

We could sum up the difference with select points (Corbett as a repub is guilty by association with Walker/Kasich, Cuomo is getting high approval due the on-time budget even with budget cuts, etc).  

I've read varied polling that Cuomo came out as a winner in the budget debate, I'm guessing because the GOP Senate wanted more cuts, but with a Dem Guv and a Dem Assembly and slim minority in the Senate I'd have thought Dems would have been expected to do better than the cuts that were enacted.  Or was it simply because the funding re-stored in the final bill made the cuts seem less drastic. (i.e. under-promise and over-deliver)?


[ Parent ]
Without
getting into an argument over what is right, my guess is that it has something to do with how Cuomo managed the cuts (bringing along certain unions, for instance) and the fact that spending and taxes here are very high. It's hard to be sure, but a lot of people probably felt that there was a lot of room to cut without being too drastic because they have a vague idea of how much is spent and even better idea of how it's being financed. He's also been running commercials touting how this will enable the private sector to create jobs and so on, and I doubt that hurt.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Also, I'll apologize for the BS remark <nt>


[ Parent ]
OR-01: More challengers to Wu coming
http://www.blueoregon.com/2011...

Besides current state Labor Commish Brad Avikian,

The rumor mill has also mentioned that State Representative Brad Witt is considering entering the primary fray. In addition, Clatsop County Commissioner Dirk Rohne, who recently party-flipped to join the Democrats, may also wade in.

Both alternatives are from more rural parts of OR-01. (Clatsop Co includes Astoria).

btw, nothing online yet, but the morning news reports Wu raised $250k this qtr.


Great.
Just what we need - enough candidates getting into the primary that Wu can pull a Dan Burton and win with 30% of the vote.



[ Parent ]
And he'll continue voting the Dem line
I'm not sure we're really getting an actual upgrade with any of these people.  I don't care if the guy is weird, so far he isn't corrupt from what I can tell and isn't a thorn in anyone's side, just weird.

[ Parent ]
Dude
The guy is a lot worse than weird. He was downright abusive to his staff and prompted most of them to quit. He also seems to be ill, possible depressed. What's more, do you want to have to prop up this guy in Nov. 2012?

[ Parent ]
Honestly
Its a situation that will work itself out.  If voters want to keep him in, that's fine.  In terms of representing his district, he probably is in line with the district.  

I hadn't read anything about him assaulting anyone but if that's the case charges should be filed and his former staff member should be courageous and go that route.  Once that happens he should resign but until then I can't say I want him to resign.  If the abuse was verbal, I'll move on since I personally will differ from most on that topic

Personally I have way more problems with corruption than erratic behavior, I'm way more interested in Rangel's ouster than Wu's.

I won't post again, I realize I'm on disagreeable territory with this one.


[ Parent ]
smells like a Dan Burton situation
Everybody smells blood and jumps into the primary, allowing the schmuck incumbent to squeak through on name recognition with 30% of the vote.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
I certainly don't see Cty. Commissioner Rohne getting oxygen...
Against Commissioner Avakian. I think the powers-that-be in Salem will try to keep Witt out.

The fact of the matter is that Avakian is senior to everyone else who might be eying the race, he's from the major center of population in OR-01 (the Hillsboro-Beaverton-Tigard triangle of Washington County suburbs), and he'll likely come in with strong support from the Oregon Democratic Party and the Kitzhaber administration. He's been a good soldier for the Democrats, agreeing to take an appointment to the labor commissioner job in the Kulongoski administration instead of forging ahead with his bid for secretary of state, and it's just "his turn".

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


[ Parent ]
Feingold's PAC raised over $1million since its inception.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


Texas Senate
First, because there apparently there just isn't enough nonsense being spouted in congress, we have word that Dr. Robert Paul may be jumping into the Senate race to replace Kay Bailey Hutchinson. Depending on how he markets himself, could he be a dark horse that both steals support from the more establishment Republicans like Shapiro, Dewhurst, and Leppert, as well as Teabagger types like Michael Williams? And if he won the nomination, would he give an opening to the Democrat?

http://politicalwire.com/archi...

On that note, yesterday, I mentioned how Patty Murray specifically mentioned Texas as one of the six Republican seats she plans to heavily target (the others being those in Massachusetts and Nevada, obviously, and those in Indiana, Maine, and Arizona). That was from Roll Call, but a National Journal blog post also mentioned her saying that had a candidate identified. She declined to say who, but I am curious, who might it be? And what effect will the DSCC's endorsement, if this is what it is, have on the race?

http://hotlineoncall.nationalj...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


Even Ron Paul himself wouldn't make a huge dent in this primary
There are tons of Tea Parties within the Texas GOP - by now, they're more powerful than the Hutchison/Bush '41 establishment wing by at least a 2 to 1 margin - but there's not a huge traditional libertarian force out there and that's what a Paul would need. I'm sure he could muster double-digits, but beyond 15 percent would be truly shocking. If anything, he just helps the more moderate candidates (Leppert, Roger Williams).

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
That kind of makes sense.
Then again, I wonder if Robert Paul would be able to unite both his dad's potential vote share in the primary and steal votes from someone like Williams or Cruz by focusing on economic issues.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I'd guess San Antonio mayor Julian Castro...
But he's so young, I'd figure he'd have eyes for the Governor's Mansion down the line.  

[ Parent ]
I thought that, too.
I mean, on paper, John Sharp seems fine, but is he really someone you hold off on?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Fundraising Grab Bag
I'll admit the DCCC did a great job on fundraising first quarter, but it's a bit of hyperbole to say the NRCC raised "just" 17.3M, 2.5M over a quarter is nothing to sneeze at but still.

Also, lost in the D-triple-C's self congradulations was that their GOP counterparts are the first committee to get themselves in the black (9M CoH minus $8M debt = +$1M vs 4.6M CoH - $8M = -$3.3M).

It will be interesting where the whole committee stuctures CoH to debt ratio is when we get all the numbers, it's important to note that all the on each side share a large portion of the same people, so the NRCC's success was in large at the RNC's expense...  

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


I think its obvious from the wording
That the point was that newly in charge the NRCC was outraised by the minority party.  

The description given seems to look at donations per house memeber as the reason for the "just 15.5 million" wording.


[ Parent ]
Correction
NRCC raised 18.1, not the 17.1 I said, so only a $1.5M difference in 1Q11. Still impressive for the minority to outraise the majority, but again two points;

1. NRCC's funraising may have been hampered by focus on RNC fundraising among high dollar donars.

2. Despite being outraised slightly, being (apparently) the first Committee to have CoH greater than debt is admirable.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
The numbers will be spun 8 million ways
My point was that clearly the OP was pointing to the concept of donations per house member for the "just" remark, which wasn't that big of a slight in the first place.

[ Parent ]
Why is it so admirable?
If the Democrats keep out raising the Republicans, won't they eventually have more cash on hand?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Both your points are nonsense......
The NRCC isn't singularly hamstrung by other committees' needs, the DCCC has the exact same thing to contend with.  So citing the RNC as a vacuum isn't valid as a distinction.

And eliminating debt doesn't mean anything.  On both sides these are standing committees that willingly take on debt for TV ads close to each election, they do it all the time and think nothing of it.  And this is because they can always pay off the debt later, it's never a big deal.  Individual campaigns are different, since losing is death and there's no continuing political life on which to base fundraising to pay it off, but party committees aren't like that.  So there's nothing "admirable" about it.  At this stage the monthly and quarterly fundraising numbers are all that matter, not cash-on-hand or debt.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Nice try
I quite clearly recall your firm statement that they would significantly outraise as a result of taking the majority. I see right through your poor attempt at spinning this away.

[ Parent ]
Yup, I forgot that. And, notpj, we now know you're a Republican, so give it up......
Some SSPers here have reported back from their visits to RRH that you revealed there you're on their side.

That's fine, but don't try to hide it anymore.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
You were the one that predicted
the NRCC heavily outraising the DCCC early this year because of the GOP majority relaxing lobbyist wallets to them.  Not only has that not happened, the NRCC has been raising LESS than the DCCC.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
You and dccyclone
Have memories like steel traps.

[ Parent ]
They Do
... its bitten me in the ass a fair few times.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
Latham v. Boswell
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

What're the chances here?

22, male, VA-10


NV-02: Should be interesting to see...
Who Kirk Lippold hurts the most by running. As I've said before, his entry can cut either way. Either Sharron Angle is hurt by Lippold splitting the tea-nut vote, or Brian Krolicki is hurt by Lippold splitting the "Anyone BUTT Sharrrrrrrrrrrrrrrron" vote... OR Lippold gets so many "NO Career Politicians!!!" votes that he manages to slip through the primary. Whatever the case, Kate Marshall and the DCCC must be smiling now. ;-)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


NV2
You think Marshall would beat Angle or Lippold in a normal environment? My guess about the new NV2 would be that it'll be sort of like Arizona's swing districts in that a moderate Dem would typically lose to a mainstream Reep but beat a wingnut Reep.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
That's about accurate.
NV-02 has historically been VERY Republican. It wasn't until recently that Reno took a sharp left turn, followed by the rest of Washoe turning bluer. And even now, Washoe still elects a number of Republicans at the local level.

And of course, we have the rurals. As I've said before, Dems can not afford to ignore the rurals.

Kate Marshall's advantage is that she gets all of this. She has the potential to even make Krolicki suffer, especially if he gets beaten and bruised in the GOP primary a la Heller v.2006. She's definitely more Gabby Giffords than Ann Kirkpatrick, so she has even better odds against a tea-nut, like Angle or Lippold, who has potential to turn off a great number of moderate Washoe GOPers.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Btw, in case you've been wondering...
I just posted a new map of what court drawn "fair districts" may look like next year if The Nevada Legislature deadlocks on the budget and can't agree upon a map.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Obama the Asshole
Barack Obama is an asshole, but in this case, it's a good thing. Apparently, he invited three Republicans--Camp, Hensarling, and our buddy Paul Ryan--to his big speech on Wednesday. Ryan was sitting in the front row as Obama threw some digs his way, and now, they are whining to The Washington Post.

More, please.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


and the 'oops' moment on the open-mic at last night's fundraiser
I bet Obama knew his mic was still hot and wanted the audio leaked: http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-50...

22, male, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Absolutely.
He can't do stuff like that speaking from the White House, but he can do it at a fund raiser and not be criticized (as much) for it. It's a bone, although a small one, that will likely please people like me.

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Ha, Obama intentionally takes advantage of a hot mic
How Jed Bartlet-esque. Fans of The West Wing may remember the episode I'm referring to.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

[ Parent ]
love it


22, male, VA-10

[ Parent ]
ditto


23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42

[ Parent ]
Wow
Remarkable concern trolling there. Was that really the Washington Post or Newsmax? The president telling them to their face what he thinks is meant to be a sign of weakness? Give me a break! And the media also need to get off of this idea that if Obama is nice to Republicans they may me be more open to negotiation. It is beyond ridiculous.

[ Parent ]
Well, it depends
on whether it's the White House that seriously believes this or whether the White House is simply trying to take advantage of its reputation for searching for some sort of compromise in order to appear to represent the reasonable center. It's entirely unclear what will happen, since Obama flatly ruled out Ryan's plan and since the Republicans even more strenuously objected to raising any taxes at all. Or is this all planned? The do-nothing plan--letting health care reform continue and letting all of the Bush tax cuts expire--seems likely to happen unless there's some sort of agreement. And if he does nothing but refuse to budge on raising taxes on the rich, I doubt there will be any agreement. Perhaps his plan is to get us to that point.

Of course, if the Republicans really do follow through with voting on the Ryan plan--which, by the way, absolutely no Democrat should vote for--all hell could break lose. It's not clear how the White House should approach this, as opposed to Congressional Democrats, but again, it seems easy to refuse to budge on raising taxes for the rich. He could then still maintain the appearance of being willing to compromise on everything else while letting the Republicans self-destruct.

Anyway, yes, the concern trolling is out of control. Not surprising, though.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
Your last substantive sentence speaks to one of my biggest pet peeves......
"And the media also need to get off of this idea that if Obama is nice to Republicans they may me be more open to negotiation."

How stupid are political reporters anyway?  Politico reported something similar recently about Obama "poisoning the well."

Bullshit.

They Rethugs will end up negotiating with Obama, and compromising, because he's strong and won't put up with bullshit, and because he's the President of the United States and you don't get anything you want, nothing at all, without his agreement.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Well,
there's also the fact that he is more willing to negotiate with them, which now seems to be the case with the debt ceiling and spending cuts.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
You say "seems to be the case" based on what???......
Based on the same political reporting that said Obama's speech earlier this week was going to endorse Simpson-Bowles?

The FY11 spending bill's details have been picked apart and revealed to involve a lot less pain than was advertised.  The teabaggers got rolled.

And the debt limit reporting has been based on the smallest of tea leaves.

Our President has been playing it smart and on priciple the whole time, as we keep finding out after the fact.  I'm confident he's setting things up nicely for the 2012 election, not just for real-time policy.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
A lot of what might have
happened hasn't actually happened, but when I read articles like the one linked to below, where he appears open to linking an increase in the debt ceiling to spending cuts, it does at the very least create the impression he's open to negotiating. It would be a lot easier, from a negotiating standpoint, to insist that the debt ceiling be raised on its own. Compare this to the Republicans, who seem to take a harder, much more uncompromising stance on almost any issue.

I hope he's being a little cagey here, but I worry.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/s...

Without going too much into policy, can you explain what you meant when you say, "Our President has been playing it smart and on priciple the whole time, as we keep finding out after the fact.  I'm confident he's setting things up nicely for the 2012 election, not just for real-time policy"? I think I agree with you, but I'd like to know what you are specifically referring to.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
I think everything revealed about Obama this week...
...shows a guy who is a liberal, who shares our values, and ultimately can be counted on to stand with us.  We forget that in the midst of necessary political compromises, but Obama is playing the long game.  So I think we'll see a campaign hammering Republicans for their social darwin budget, all the elements of it that are disastrous to most voters, and so many other things Republicans are doing (e.g., heavy focus on abortion) that most voters just don't like.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I get that he's supposed
to be playing the long game. I'm a big, big proponent of that idea myself. In fact, just this morning, I suggested that by refusing to budge on raising taxes for the rich, he might get us back to a situation where all taxes are raised and health care reform isn't repealed, which would keep us in good shape as far as the deficit goes for the next few years. I just wonder about some of the tactics he's using to get to where he wants to be.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Or rather, where's the trap?
It's entirely possible my kind of poor insight into legislative technique and my lack of, you know, actually being politics as an executive or legislator prevents me from grasping what he's trying to do. There might be, as James Wimberley says, a trap that Obama is laying for the Republicans. But if there is, I am not seeing it.

So, as Kevin Drum asked, why does he want a fight on the debt ceiling? What sort of political and electoral advantages will this bring him and his party?

http://www.samefacts.com/2011/...

http://motherjones.com/kevin-d...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
I don't care where his criticism is coming from
Chaffee had better endorse the President. Not only are they close friends, Obama is the reason Chaffee still has a career in government. I respect Chaffee a lot, but this is a strike against him in my book. Besides, we've seen what a great idea it is to run away from Obama in Rhode Island even in an awful year for liberals.  

NY-01/NY-19

Really?
I think it's great to see someone actually push against Obama from the left (who isn't someone you'd expect to do so). I'm sure Chafee will come around in the end, especially if he wants to run as a Dem in 2014. (He can't very well do that if he doesn't support Obama.) But for now, having him act as a critic of Obama from the left is a good thing for progressives.

[ Parent ]
Yeah, because there is such a shortage of critics attacking
Obama from the left. That's MSNBC's entire line-up outside of lock-up. What would be good for progressives is for Obama to get re-elected with huge coattails that help the Democrats take back the house. Undermining a President popular with the base is just going to hurt his coattails. As usual, "progressives" are being politically stupid. But, as long as it helps their bottom line, I guess they don't care if it damages the country.

[ Parent ]
Wow
I'm sorry I opened this can of worms. Let's move on.

[ Parent ]
There's a huge difference
between substantive criticism and mere bitching that nothing is ever good enough. There's far more of the former from the people that matter the most on our side, which is a good thing. None of that undermines him, or our country.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Let's move on
This is going to become a flame-war. Let's keep our eyes on the prize here. (And my fault for engaging on this one, but anyhow, like I say, let's move on.)

[ Parent ]
I agree.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
That would be strange
if as an indie, Chafee endorsed Obama, and as a Democrat, he opposed him.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
He'll endorse him, doesn't matter what he says now......
Chafee's complaint is from the left.  Come next year, he'll endorse Obama over any Republican.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Trump is leading the GOP primary by 9 points
According to PPP
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

That polls shows just how crazy Republican voters
have become.

The PPP poll found a sizable birther base within the party, as 23% of respondents said they'd be "unwilling" to vote for any candidate who says Obama was born in the U.S. Additionally, only 38% said they would be willing to vote for such a candidate, while 39% were unsure.

I really think Trump ends up running and there is no way Pawlenty or Romney stands a chance against him. Obama, however, will have no problem crushing the 4-time bankruptcy declaring, married 3x tool.

On a birhter related note, the Arizona legislature passed a birther law that is waiting for Gov Brewer's signature, there is a chance Obama won't be allowed on the 2012 ballot in Arizona.  


[ Parent ]
The more I think about it, the more I suspect Trump has zero chance of winning the nod
He can lead in every single GOP national primary poll, but if he doesn't win Iowa (where the religious right will never embrace him), New Hampshire (where Romney's a shoo-in) or South Carolina (where the Iowa winner will prevail), he's done. Like his pal, Rudy Giuliani, I suspect Trump would be misguided and run a lazy national-based campaign.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
I completely agree
While Rudy ran as the moderate in 2008 and Trump is positioning himself as far to the right as he can, I think they're campaigns are ultimately going to be very similar. Rudy ran on 9/11 sensationalism and fear, Trump will run on birtherism. If he announces, Trump, like Rudy before him, will come to regret his former views on issues like gay rights and abortion as the Christian right starts to take him seriously and begins to pummel him in Iowa. Both have the wealthy New Yorker stigma working against them. Both are celebrities (in different senses, of course). Both will probably run, as you said, lazy campaigns that rely too heavily on their huge amounts of name recognition and money. Both have huge national support that is a mile wide and an inch deep. And finally, both lack a clear state-by-state path to victory in the primaries.  

NY-01/NY-19

[ Parent ]
Hasn't he been leading
or close to it in New Hampshire?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Hilarious
I mean, we all knew birtherism was a huge thing for Republicans, but I just didn't realize how huge...

[ Parent ]
Good news
He likely won't win, but this boomlet just puts Team Red in greater disarray.

And if he does get the nomination, Obama stomps him everywhere.

And if he did win, he's better than most of the Republicans running.

win-win-win


[ Parent ]
Huh?
He's worse than Palin. Not only has he never served in government, but he's intentionally inauthentic (gay rights and birtherism) and the companies that he's run and he himself have a history of bankruptcy and near-bankruptcy.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
MI-Sen: Hoekstra will not challenge Stabenow
http://michiganmessenger.com/4...

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

Instead
He will spend the rest of his life being a lobbyist in favor of unwarranted wiretapping.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Wow, House Dems punk the House GOP!
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


Sorry, I did look (nt)


25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]
This is a little bit outside
The usual SSP realm. Let's see if it leads to any votes or anything we can put an electoral spin on before we get bogged down in debates about congressional tactics and procedure.

[ Parent ]
It does have some political ramifications
The Dems wanted to be able to pin a new albatross on the GOP going into 2012.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
DavidNYC, LookingOver is right, 119 GOPers voted for the RSC social darwinism budget......
It failed only 136-119, with 172 Dems voting "present."

Now, most of those 119 probably come from safe seats.  But I bet there are some in there who can be attacked with this.

In particular I'm hoping in IA-04 the state Dems work hard at landing a good recruit.  That's a winnable seat vs. the extremist lunatic Steve King who now gets a bunch of populated counties who have never seen him on a ballot, and while I haven't looked at the roll call yet he's a well-known social darwinist and it would be shocking if he wasn't one of the 119.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Also from TPM
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

Panic ensued. In the House, legislation passes by a simple majority of members voting. The Dems took themselves out of the equation, leaving Republicans to decide whether the House should adopt the more-conservative RSC budget instead of the one authored by Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan. As Dems flipped to present, Republicans realized that a majority of their members had indeed gone on the record in support of the RSC plan -- and if the vote closed, it would pass. That would be a slap in the face to Ryan, and a politically toxic outcome for the Republican party.

So they started flipping their votes from "yes" to "no."

In the end, the plan went down by a small margin, 119-136. A full 172 Democrats voted "present"



25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

Huntsman has no chance. Teabagging ahoy!
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...
In letters obtained and published today by the Daily Caller, Huntsman calls Obama "a remarkable leader." The word remarkable, as the Caller's Jonathan Strong notes, is underlined.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


Horrendous Polling for Republicans
Rather than summarize, I'll simply copy and paste:

A new Democracy Corps poll finds the Republican deficit reduction plan gets only 48% support, "but when voters learn almost anything about it, they turn sharply and intensely against it."

Key findings: "When the budget is described -- using as much of Paul Ryan's description as possible -- support collapses to 36% with just 19% strongly supporting the plan. The facts in the budget lose people almost immediately -- dropping 12 points. Putting the spotlight on this budget is damning. A large majority of 56% oppose it, 42% strongly. The impact is much stronger with seniors where support erodes from 48% to just 32%, with 57% opposed. Support with independents drops from 55% to 43%."

And to think these guys are going to vote on this plan! If the Democratic strategists don't bludgeon them with this, they need to find a new line of work.

http://politicalwire.com/archi...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


Kohl raises exactly $0.00 in Q1
http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

I know he can self-finance, but still...

22, male, VA-10


His total fundraising outside of self-funding in the 2005-06 cycle:
$11,912.

It means nothing, we just have to wait to see if he decides to run again or not.


[ Parent ]
It looks like he's always self-financed.
The page below says that his total amount of money raised from 1989 to 2010 was about $20.9 million, and 93 percent of that was self-financed. Which makes sense, of course. Why go to all of that trouble and open yourself up to charges of taking money from this group or that group when you don't have to?

http://www.opensecrets.org/pol...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
Virginia maps in trouble
McDonnell is apparently expected to veto the legislature's maps.

http://twitter.com/PilotOnPoli...


and I think this surprised everyone
NLS is liveblogging: http://notlarrysabato.typepad....

22, male, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I don't see this getting overriden, either
The Senate passed the plans by a party-line 22-18 vote. Senate Republicans have no incentive to protect the House of Delegates while screwing themselves.

On the upside, if McDonnell remains consistent, this means they should pass a better House map than the 8-3 incumbent protector that the House wants.


[ Parent ]
Aw hell
McDonnell may try to delay this past the 2011 elections in the hopes of getting a majority in the State Senate, thus allowing the GOP to do anything it wants.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

[ Parent ]
Yup. We're getting rolled. And he's using the idiot Assembly Dems as his cover......
Those dunces almost all voted for the GOP gerrymander, simply because "there was a deal" that would let Dems keep the opposite chamber.  Of course state Senate GOPers didn't reciprocate, they all voted "no" on the Dem state Senate map.  So McD has cover that the Assembly plan was "bipartisan," the state Senate plan was a partisan Democratic plan, and thus the state Senate plan is unfair and demands the whole thing be vetoed.

If the House Dems had all voted "no," then McD wouldn't have this argument.  He still might veto and say both plans are unfair, and we still might be screwed, but at least he wouldn't have the cover he wants.

Now I bet we'll end up forced to try to keep our state Senate majority under the current map, which will be tough.  Maybe we can persuade our oldest state Senators in sure-to-be-lost districts to stay in it, and not retire, for one more year until there's another election with new maps in 2012; that's a modest commitment compared to a 4-year term, and maybe our guys can be persuaded to hang on for a little longer for the team.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
yup
perfect analysis

22, male, VA-10

[ Parent ]
State Senate maps
must be completed by the next election. Doing otherwise would be a legal nightmare.

If something doesn't come soon, a court must draw the lines, which would actually be good for the Democrats.


[ Parent ]
Steve Israel: We will use GOP vote on medicare privatization against the GOP.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


Roll Call vote on Ryan budget.
http://clerk.house.gov/evs/201...
Every Dem a "No" and 4 Republican "No's".

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
The Four R nos
http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

While it's Politico, the explanation for each of these four seems to make sense

Rehberg/Ron Paul/Walter Jones/David McKinley (WV-01)


[ Parent ]
Walter Jones is continuing to deliver


[ Parent ]
Walter Jones
He was elected to office as a Democrat before becoming a Republican to run for the House. His father was a Dixiecrat too if I'm not mistaken. Maybe he's finally coming in from the cold...

(probably just being a grouchy old man though)

NY-01/NY-19


[ Parent ]
Probably more like Paul, in fact
Jones often votes with Paul on these sort of votes, and they're both in the Liberty Caucus. Jones is also in the Tea Party Caucus. It's probably more him voting against it from the Paulist right than from the centre as a Dixiecrat.

[ Parent ]
doubt it
Jones has been voting with the Dems a fair amount of time lately, and I've seen a number of votes where he was the only Republican to vote with the Dems. He's just been drifting left in general.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Some history on Walter Jones......
Jones' dad, Walter Jones, Sr., was indeed a Dixiecrat Congressman from NC for a long time.

Walter, Jr. was groomed to succeed him, but the seat was made VRA in the 1991 redistricting.  Walter, Jr. ran anyway and lost handily in the Democratic primary to a black candidate who, of course, went on to win.

Junior was openly angry and bitter about this, and switched parties.  The story was shared that his dad on his deathbed told Junior, acknowledging conservative voter abandonment of the Democratic Party across the South, that the Republican Party is the future of North Carolina, thus blessing a party switch.

So then Walter, Jr. eventually ran as a Republican in a different district, and won.

Junior was a reliable Republican vote for a long time, not a dissenter.  He's a right-wing evangelical fundie, so that's what animates his conservatism more than anything.  And he was the Congressman who, in anger over anyone dissenting over the Iraq War, forced the House cafeteria to change "french fries" to "freedom fries."  So it was quite ironic when Jones was the singular Member to do a full public 180 on the Iraq War, flipping completely and siding with the most virulent war opponents you might find on DailyKos.

Ever since he broke with his party on Iraq, and found himself easily winning GOP primaries in spite of it, he's been a thorn in the side of his party on a number of things.  I'm actually very surprised he hasn't been teabagged to death through all these cycles, he's been primaried several times long before wingnuts repackaged themselves into their latest and greatest Halloween costumes as teabaggers.  Jones apparently remains too well-liked in his very safe right-wing GOP district to get beat.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Interesting that Rehberg voted no
Was it from the right?

[ Parent ]
Never mind, read the article
Although it sorta surprises me.

[ Parent ]
Ron Paul?
Why would he vote against it? It doesn't go far enough?

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Not necessarily.
I mean, he probably feels invincible, so why wouldn't he do something like vote against it because it doesn't go far enough? For better or worse, he seems to operate to the beat of his own drum.

How funny would it be if he lost because of this, though? Imagine the sort of partying that would happen if we somehow managed to take out Boehner, Cantor, McCarthy, Rodgers-McMorris, Paul, and Bachmann, assuming she isn't doing the political equivalent of a swan dive off a building by running for president? Highly unlikely to get all of them, but if this is going to bring down Republicans all over the place, I have to think Paul Ryan is toast, which is probably most fitting of all potential losses.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
Unfortunately, I don't think Ryan is toast.
That district is right next door, and the people there just keep voting for him for some unfathomable reason. Obama even won his district by a point in 2008, but Ryan still won by double digits, if I recall right.

[ Parent ]
I don't think Paul Ryan
has had a serious contest at any point in the last ten years, so it's hard to say how he might react to actually facing a vigorous opposition campaign. Boehner's district, for instance, is so incredibly Republican than it wouldn't surprise me to see him survive even as Republicans are dropping all over the place, but as you said, Ryan's is actually an Obama district. If voting for his plan is as big an albatross around their necks as we think it might be and the DCCC actually tries for his seat, I wouldn't be surprised to see him lose fairly easily.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Color me skeptical
A big part of the reason Ryan never gets a serious challenge is that we have a shitty bench in his district. Plus Ryan consistently performs far better than he has any right to even against iffy opponents.

And a one point Obama win in 2008 isn't very Democratic for Wisconsin.


[ Parent ]
Times have changed... dramatically...
It won't be easy to knock him off, but it is certainly possible if done right.

[ Parent ]
That may have
been an excuse in the past, but it's no longer one. He's now the face of a terribly unpopular plan, so it should be easy to go after him, and we have a long, long time before the election. If they can't find an elected official to be the candidate, find some businessman or doctor or teacher or something. It probably doesn't matter as long as he or she doesn't have a criminal record.

And no, his district isn't that friendly to Democrats, but it's also not unfriendly to them, either. It's quite literally right in the middle. There's no particular love for Democrats, but there's no aversion to them, either. Let's find someone ideologically appropriate, devote the resources necessary, and see what happens.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
Boehner is vulnerable, too...
...but in a primary.  His district has never really been fond of him... not so much that he's not "conservative enough", but more that he's a total doofus.

[ Parent ]
There is almost zero chance Ryan loses
This stuff about Ryan being vulnerable has to stop.  It really sends a wrong message because the guy will cruise to reelection.

And to cut to the chase, check our RRH's map of Wisconsin redistricting.  They make a coastal Dem district (like Lois Capps current one in California) where part of Milwaukee is connected to the cities of Racine and Kenosha, making a uber-blue district, while Ryan retains only the red inland areas of Racine and Kenosha counties plus some of Waukesha.

In such a district, Ryan can't possibly lose, short dead girl/live boy problems.  

Unless the Republican Party of Wisconsin act as total imbeciles (insert joke here), they will make Ryan's district much, much, much redder than it is now.


[ Parent ]
I don't know if that will happen
There are local concerns that may stop such a map from happening, Wisconsin has never really been gerrymandered and the districts have maintained in a way that's regional. I wouldn't think anything on RRH would be close to what will really happen, Walker and his folks are ambitions, but I don't see big changes in the map like that.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
I posted this in the weekend thread too
but you don't even have to go as far as RRH's did.  Just take in only Racine with Milwaukee, and Ryan benefits.

And then even without the RRH type map, Janesville can be jettisoned in the west and replaced with redder areas to the north.


[ Parent ]
Getting rid of Janesville would be problematic
Because Ryan lives there.

[ Parent ]
You're missing something on Wisconsin redistricting......
The recalls.  If Dems take the state Senate, the game changes.

And I read recently either in a comment thread on SSP, or on another site, that the GOP can't ram through redistricting before that because they have to wait for localities to redraw precincts.  So there appears to be no mechanism to expedite, they gotta wait until the fall or so, after the chamber will have flipped, if it flips.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
I know it's been discussed in SSP comments.


[ Parent ]
And what if that doesn't happen?


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Thought the Rehberg no vote was interesting
at least one Republican saw that this isn't going to do them wonders in 2012.

Heller, however, voted for it.  I'm increasingly skeptical Heller can thread the needle between not getting primaried in NV and actually being electable statewide (in a presidential year to boot).

Flake voted for the even more conservative RSC plan and the Ryan budget.  Two austerity budgets worth of cuts to paint him with!


[ Parent ]
What do they know that we don't?
This is mass suicide!  Do they think that the Koch billions will somehow protect them from this insanity?  Why do they feel so safe and comfortable in voting for something so insane?

[ Parent ]
After 2010, they think they're invincible.
And I have no problem with letting them jump off a cliff under the impression that they'll sprout wings.

[ Parent ]
Yeah, but they have to have something backing up their confidence...
I mean, they can't be that stupid to go against their senior voters without something to comfort them.  What is it?

[ Parent ]
They had no choice
Vote against this bill, increase your electability in 2012 general election.  But seriously decrease your ability to survive a Republican primary.

[ Parent ]
We did the same thing in 2009
We pushed 240+~ of our members to vote for the Stimulus bill and Pelosi just to "prove a point".

After elections like 2008 and 2010, it is pretty easy to feel invincible


[ Parent ]
I don't think
there's any comparison to the stimulus and what the Republicans are doing now. The better comparison would be to what the Democrats did with health care, but even that is wanting.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
And a lot of Dems were released on health care...
I guess the GOP thinks that since there was such little debate and the budget was passed as essentially an afterthough, it won't become such a big deal... especially, since it will completely die in the Senate.

[ Parent ]
Which is a ridiculous call, I believe.
I defended McCaskill when she signed on Corker's Cap Act, which would limit government spending to a certain percentage of GDP, because I didn't think it was going anywhere. Whether or not she voted for it in the Senate--and I doubt she will get the chance to, since Reid would never let it come up--she'd still get the credit for "fiscal responsibility," which is a good thing right now. Now, there's a specific reason for us to hate a bill like this, which is what it would force huge cuts in just about everything. As much as some might want to use that against McCaskill, I doubt they could, because the bill is (a) positive sounding and (b) negative in a very vague, kind of technical sense that is hard to get across in ads. On the other hand, while the Republicans didn't explicitly call for the end of Medicare and Medicaid and tax cuts for the rich, the most charitable interpretation of what they are doing--which is still wrong, of course--is that they are trying to privatize Medicare and limit the costs of the program as well as those for Medicaid and lower the top marginal rates. Of course, those things really don't poll that well, and what they are actually doing--which is in fact gutting Medicare and showering the rich with huge tax breaks--polls even worse. And they just went on record as doing it, while every single member of the other party voted against it! (When was the last time every Democrat voted against some major piece of legislation, by the way?) Not only did they willingly put on a backpack full of bricks by voicing support for it in public, they added a few more by actually going on record for it. I really, really don't see the logic in this move.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
We should be happy to have a vote on Ryan's budget in the Senate
It isn't as if it will pass. It also forces Scott Brown to take a clear position on the issue.  

[ Parent ]
It really is stunning, I wonder if they didn't bother to even poll this privately......
It's not like they've found great rhetoric that sells.  I see hints of attempts of it in arguments that "Medicare will go bankrupt" without their dramatic action, but I can't believe that polled well.

They charged ahead on this without considering the voters' likely reactions.

The only thing the Republicans have going for them in this vote is that it's so early it could very well get buried by many other things before November 2012.  But given that Obama and Senate Dems will never give an audience to anything remotely close to the House bill, or its substance, it's a given this is a major attack point.

Former Congressman and onetime NRCC Chair Tom Davis admitted today that his party would pay a price for this, that it was a "tough vote" and there would be consequences.  He didn't explicitly criticize the bill or the decision to vote on it, but you could read between the lines quite clearly that he sees this as a major mistake.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
I'm definitely
curious to see how this expands the target list. I've got to think this makes them give every district in Florida, for instance, serious consideration.

Like I said yesterday, if they win one or two seats from every state Obama is likely to contest in 2012, that alone would be enough to take back the House. There were 17 "swing" states (not all are equally swingy, of course) given serious attention in 2008, no? Off the top of my head, I think that list would be: Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Indiana, and Michigan. And that's before we think of how it might help them in already states like New York, California, and Illinois, or new possible swing states like Georgia, Arizona, and Texas.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]

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