Tennessee- Mike McWherther.

I would not be surprised if Alexander(TN) loses. The Democratic Candidate is  Mike McWherther- son of Tennessee's most popular and well respected political figure- Governor Ned McWherther.

---

by: CMBurns @ Fri Sep 28, 2007 at 18:08:55 PM UTC

"Most popular"? Really?

Do you have polling data to back that up, or are you just making it up because it sounds nice?

First, how far back in history are you going to determine "most popular"?

Second, what criteria are you using?

McWherter was first elected with 54% of the vote, then re-elected with 61%. For purposes of comparison, Lamar Alexander was first elected with 55%, then re-elected with 60%. That seems to be pretty even up.

However, neither of them were elected with the greatest margin in recent history. That would go to Don Sunquist in 1998, who was re-elected with 69% of the vote, or Phil Bredesen in 2006 who was re-elected with 68% of the vote.

Was McWherter popular? By all accounts, yes. But not any more popular than some of the other recent Tennessee Governors, including Lamar Alexander. If Alexander and McWherter are about equal in terms of popularity, then surely Alexander has a huge advantage over McWherter's son, who has never held elective office before.

---

by: Unabridged @ Fri Sep 28, 2007 at 18:22:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

a

"who has never held elective office before."

He's had strong ties to politics and public service though. 

"McWherter has been intensely involved in Tennessee politics throughout his life, most recently as treasurer of State Sen. Lowe Finney's (D-Jackson) successful campaign that unseated party-switcher Don McLeary. He has been a longtime political advisor to West Tennessee Democratic Congressman John Tanner."

---

by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Sat Sep 29, 2007 at 00:00:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Link

http://www.nashville...

---

by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Sat Sep 29, 2007 at 00:01:41 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Neat-o.

n/t

---

by: Unabridged @ Sat Sep 29, 2007 at 01:22:02 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

McWherther's popularity is less to do with electoral performance

When I mentioned above that Ned McWherther is the most popular political figure in Tennessee. I was mentioning that he is very respected and admired by the general public especially among older voters.

Voters reminescent of former politicians.

Unabridged mentioned that Sundquist was re-elected with 69% of the popular vote. He does to know that Sundquist's Democratic opponent was a sacrificial lamb- Total Joke. Sundquist left office with low job approval ratings.

Lamar has to deal with the unpopularity of the Republican President- George W. Bush. The Republican Leadership in the US Senate. McWherther benifits from voter reminensce of his father.

---

by: CMBurns @ Sat Sep 29, 2007 at 22:30:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

So?

The fact that Sundquist didn't have a strong challenge doesn't make Ned McWherter the "most popular political figure in Tennessee" (I like the way that you go from one statement you can't prove to an even grander one, btw). If you're going to throw around terms like that, you better have numbers to back them up. The only reason I used re-election numbers as a basis for comparison is because I don't know of any polls that can properly compare all of the political figures in Tennessee. Since you don't either, then there's absolutely nothing to support your gradiose assertion.

There is also little proof that reminenscing about McWherter (which seems odd to me; he was a Governor and from what I understand, Phil Bredesen is also popular, so why exactly are these supposed voters pining for the McWherter name?) will lead to voters throwing out a two-term Governor and incumbent Senator in favor of his son.

---

by: Unabridged @ Sat Sep 29, 2007 at 23:48:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Unabridged You are a NEOCONNED GAY OLE PRICK

Being popular is totally different from voter support.

A political candidate can have a job approval rating or personal favorable ratings of 70%. Yet he can end up winning by a 60-40 margin.

---

by: CMBurns @ Mon Oct 01, 2007 at 14:58:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Uh, mods?

While I understand that I hold a different opinion politically than those who typically post here, I have never done anything so egregious as to call someone a "neo-conned gay ole prick", especially not in all caps as the title of a post. The non-sensical nature of the insult doesn't detract from its violation of several of your rules. Certainly, it is much, much, much worse than whatever I did to earn a ban last time around.

As for Burnsy, good job of recapping what I just said in my post. However, as I'll point out again for you, while electoral support isn't a very good indicator of popularity, it is the only thing we have to go by in this case. Since you cannot support your claim that McWherter is "the most popular governor in recent history", or "the most popular politician in Tennesse" (since you baselessly made both claims) using my methodology or any other, then it stands that there's no reason why I, or anyone else, should believe you.

Also, since you ignored, and therefore conceded, that Phil Bredesen is popular and therefore Tennessee voters aren't pining for the McWherter days, there's little reason to believe that his son will be swept into office on a wave of fond memories running against a popular former Governor himself (and not just someone who shares his name). Moreover, if Harold Ford couldn't win an open seat in TN in 2006, I'm not sure what makes you think that someone who has never run for office can defeat an incumbent who has won three times statewide in a Presidential year.

You're welcome to respond, but I have a feeling it'll just be more name-calling and point rehashing, so it might be better for you to stop digging this hole.

---

by: Unabridged @ Mon Oct 01, 2007 at 15:37:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Alexander is currently the Senior Senator from Tennessee.

He has been a US Senator since the last 5 years. Before that he unsucessful ran for President in 1996- more than ten years ago. He served as Bush Sr- Secretary of Education. He was Governor from 1979 to 1987. Alexander is currently a mediocre US Senator.

McWherther Senior left the TN Governorship in 1994- more than 12 years ago. He has been out of the spot light. Voters in Tennessee- especially Older Voters have fond memories of Ned McWherther.

Alexander has to deal with the Unpopularity of the National Republican Party.

Mo

---

by: CMBurns @ Mon Oct 01, 2007 at 16:43:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

At least you didn't attack me this time.

Alexander also ran for President in 2000. Thank you, however, for pointing out his long and distinguished resume. I disagree that he is a mediocre Senator, though I doubt you're basing that statement on anything other than pure partisanship.

I'm sure some voters have fond memories of McWherter. And if Ned McWherter were running for Senate, we'd be having a different conversation. Since its only his son, and since Alexander is a former Governor himself, I don't think "fond memories" is going to accomplish as much as you hope.

And if Bob Corker won in 2006, having to deal with the unpopularity of the GOP, I like Alexander's chances. Over the course of his illustrious career and record of public service for Tennessee, he's most certainly earned the right to have his record judged on its own. Given his electoral success in the state, its fair to say that voters approve of his record.

---

by: Unabridged @ Mon Oct 01, 2007 at 16:53:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

demographics

Ford lost white men by a 61-39 margin and white women by 56-42.  while i'd like to think it was because white people in tn prefer republicans to democrats, i have to wonder how much of it was racism.  hopefully none, but i'm not that idealistic.  considering white people make up 84% of the state, had ford polled a few points better he would have won. while it's unlikely Mcwherther will have as good a race as ford, if Mcwherther does better amongst the white demographics he'll have a better chance.  info obtained at http://edition.cnn.c...

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

---

by: doug_tuttle @ Mon Oct 01, 2007 at 16:54:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ford vs Corker is totally different from Alexander vs McWherther.

In the former Race- It was open seat election. Republicans had a primary between Corker- the Moderate Republican from Eastern Tennessee and Two Wing Nuts- Ed Bryant and Van Hilleary. Ford was a Black Democrat from Memphis.

In the latter Race= The Republican- Alexander has the Incumbency advantage- Unseating Alexader is an uphill battle. However McWherther may have some advantages in which Ford lacked. Ability to perform in Eastern and Middle Tennessee.

---

by: CMBurns @ Mon Oct 01, 2007 at 17:50:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ford had relatives involved in scandals and he is from Memphis

Western Tennessee.

McWhether- Ned is popular in the Eastern part of Tennessee.

UNABRIGED- YOU GOP LOVER.

You also have not disproved the fact the McWherther is very popular in Tennessee.

Mentioning Bredesen's name is irrevelant because he is not running for Office. Same thing with Sundquist.

---

by: CMBurns @ Mon Oct 01, 2007 at 16:51:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm not trying to disprove that

Are you incapable of following my line of logic? If so, tell me what I can do to help you.

My point isn't that McWherter isn't popular; I'm sure he is. My point is that 1) that doesn't mean his son is going to be elected on a wave of fond memories, and 2) McWherter isn't the only popular political or former Governor in Tennessee.

However, you didn't just say McWherter was popular; you said he was the most popular politician in Tennessee. Given how many politicians are from Tennessee (Fred Thompson, Al Gore, Phil Bredesen, to name a few), that seems like a very large stretch. You made two claims that you absolutely cannot back up. Don't get mad at me for calling you out.

And Bredesen's name is important. You said that voters will pine for Ned McWherter, since he was a popular Governor. Ignoring the fact that Ned McWherter won't be on the ballot, I don't see why voters would be pining for a popular former Governor when they have a popular current Governor in office right now.

---

by: Unabridged @ Mon Oct 01, 2007 at 16:56:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I never said McWhether JR is going to win but

I would not be surprised if he wins.

Tennessee is a Second or Third Tier Race for the Democrats.

Democrats have an obvious advantage of picking up CO,NH,and VA.

The First Tier Targets for Democrats are ME,MN,NE,and OR.
Tossup Elections.

Second Tier Targets- The Republican Incumbent has a slight advantage but Democrats have a decent shot at winning.
AK,KY,NC,NM,and TN

---

by: CMBurns @ Mon Oct 01, 2007 at 17:30:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

For a Second Tier Target- McWherther is a credible recruitment.

---

by: CMBurns @ Mon Oct 01, 2007 at 17:35:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Okay?

Where did I say otherwise?

---

by: Unabridged @ Mon Oct 01, 2007 at 17:37:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well,

you are the commenter that is claiming that Virginia is still a toss-up and Davis has a great chance of beating Mark Warner, and that Mark Warner's popularity as governor just won't translate into a federal race. I think that's pretty laughable; barring another macaca, Mark Warner will win by double digits.

That said, I still think McWherter is a longshot at this point, mostly because he's the son of a popular governor, not the governor itself. Regardless, his candidacy does put Tennessee on the map.

---

by: KainIIIC @ Mon Oct 01, 2007 at 17:50:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Good job of bringing nothing new to the table.

This thread isn't about VA SEN, its about TN SEN. However, I never said that Tom Davis has a "great chance" against Warner; I said Davis would make the race competitive. And if its Davis vs Warner, yes, I rate it as a toss-up. I also never said that Warner's popularity "won't translate" into a federal race; I have repeatedly made the point that Warner's high approval ratings are soft. He will start out with a 70% favorability. Its up to the GOP nominee to bring those numbers down, and it can and will happen because his numbers are soft. The question is whether whoever the nominee can do it enough to win.

Its amazing how reasonable that all sounds when you don't use the loaded language you used.

---

by: Unabridged @ Mon Oct 01, 2007 at 17:57:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Unbridged- You are a Republicunt.

This thread is about all US Senate Race in 2008. Expanding the MAP.

Regarding the VA US Senate Race. Warner is favored to win. Nobody is saying Warner gets 70% of the popular vote but he wins by a comfortable margin.

Davis who comes from Northern VA- DC Burbs might perform better than a Generic Republican in Northern VA.

Warner is likely to perform better than Webb or Kaine or a Generic Democrat in Southern VA.

Warner will carry Northern Virginia but by a narrower margin than a Webb/Allen race.

Davis will carry Southern Virginia by a narrower margin than a Webb/Allen race.

---

by: CMBurns @ Mon Oct 01, 2007 at 18:18:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Please pay heed to the warnings of the site admins

There is no reason to use obscene language. It is possible, as I and others have demonstrated on this site before, to disagree with one another, even dramatically, and not resort to name-calling, profanity, or ad hominem attacks. You have already been warned once; I had hoped that would've been enough.

Yes, CMBurns, you cracked the code. I am a registered Republican who is interested in several of the races covered by this site. My affiliation is widely known and I make no attempts to hide it.

---

by: Unabridged @ Mon Oct 01, 2007 at 18:45:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

CM Burns - final warning.

That kind of language will not be tolerated on this site.  If you cannot keep the discussion civil, you will no longer be welcome here.

---

by: James L. @ Mon Oct 01, 2007 at 18:55:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

James L.

Are you having a relationship with Unabridged.

---

by: CMBurns @ Mon Oct 01, 2007 at 19:35:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

CMBurns

This user has been banned for refusing to be civil to other users.

---

by: James L. @ Mon Oct 01, 2007 at 23:58:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Your language...

...is unacceptable.  Such treatment of other commenters here will not be tolerated.  Please keep the discussion civil.

---

by: James L. @ Mon Oct 01, 2007 at 17:21:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]