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NV-Sen: Shelley Berkley Is In

by: DavidNYC

Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 11:03 AM EDT


It's just a lone tweet, but it's Jon Ralston, and it's big news if true:

Rep. Shelley Berkley will run for US Senate, source close to her confirms.

I hope this is right, because I really think this is Berkley's time, and I'm convinced she can win, especially with Obama at the top of the ticket.

UPDATE: It's official!

Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Sen. Patty Murray told reporters Thursday morning at a briefing, "Shelley Berkley is running. ... Our polls show her up and winning."

Berkley said in a statement, "Nevadans know me, and they know I will never stop working on behalf of our state."
DavidNYC :: NV-Sen: Shelley Berkley Is In
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NV-Sen: Shelley Berkley Is In | 140 comments
Good
I wouldn't have minded AG Cortez Masto or SoS Ross Miller. But now this is going to be a race and a real opportunity for Dems to win a GOP held Senate seat.

This also means that NV will now have 3 open seats next year: Berkley's NV1, Heller's NV2 and the new NV4.

On the Dem side I hope that either State Treasurer Kate Marshall or Assemblywoman Debbie Smith run for Heller's Reno based seat.

The two open Clark County races oughta be very interesting, depending on how they would be drawn any of the following could run: former Assembly Speaker Barbara Buckley, current Assembly Speaker John Oceguera, Senate Maj. Leader Stephen Horsford, and former Rep. Dina Titus. A primary for either seat wouldn't be out of the question.

NV House Seats
This means the State Legislature can redraw NV-01 the way they want now.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Kate Marshall looks to be...
Running in NV-02, but Kirk Lippold likely running there throws the GOP primary into more doubt. Who will he hurt more, Sharron Angle or Brian Krolicki? Or might he just win that primary as the "I'm not the career politician" candidate?

Down here in Clark, it's probably even more likely that Steven Horsford runs in NV-01. And as long as The Legislature can work out a budget deal in time to tackle redistricting, he'll do his best to redraw it in a way that best suits him. The real fight will probably be NV-04, where Dina and Barbara Buckley are both hungry for a comeback but Oceguera may want a promotion to DC. It will be interesting to see how many allies Oceguera really has in Carson.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Krolicki is running too?
Ouch, he'll be tough to beat.  The guy is like teflon.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
He's delaying an announcement
until the end of the current legislature. But since he's delaying as opposed to just saying no, then he's probably running.

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42
[ Parent ]
What about NV-03?
I get that Heck's an incumbent and the district will be more Republican after redistricting, but it still seems a pretty inviting target.
[ Parent ]
It probably still will be...
Because The Legislature is limited in what to do there. Folks in Washoe don't want NV-02 weakened too much, and both Brian Sandoval and several legislators have poo-poo'ed the idea of drawing Vegas-to-Reno districts. So this means they can make NV-03 a few points more Republican by removing heavily Democratic areas like Spring Valley and The East Side, but it will likely still be a district that Obama wins next year (if narrowly).

If legislators can't agree on a map, it goes to the court. And from what I've heard, Nevada's Supremes are already growling at legislators and protesting that their docket is already full with other cases. It sounds like they're really fearing a possible redistricting case. And if it comes to that, then Joe Heck will NOT be spared and the final NV-03 will probably hew close to its current D+2 PVI.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
The way Nevada is going
Heck will always be at least a plausible target...there is simply no way to give him an R+10 district or anything like that.  I'd be surprised if Obama fails to win any of Nevada's four districts next year.
[ Parent ]
Obama as to be Carteresque
to not win any Nevada district, he'll at least win the Las Vegas district.

He'll probably win 3 out of 4.  

[ Parent ]
Where did I read
that they were going to create a Reno to Las Vegas NV-4 through Mineral and Nye counties for Kate Marshall?
[ Parent ]
Somewhere where they don't know there is Republican governor

[ Parent ]
I guess my assumption
was they would give Joe Heck a safe seat and draw a safe Democratic one for a 2-2 split.

[ Parent ]
It's never going to be 2-2
without a Reno-to-Vegas gerrymander, NV-02 will have to shrink, and will likely become a district that Obama won. Combine that with presidential turnout, an open seat, a potentially strong Democratic candidate, and a potentially weak Republican candidate, and you get a seat that can't be called Safe R.

The best Republicans can hope for is 2-1-1 I think. But 2-0-2 is probably more likely, although the two swing districts will probably have D+ PVIs.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
Huge news
Now let's win this.  We need to put some of their seats in play in the Senate.

I'm increasingly thinking that the House R's may shoot themselves in the foot with a government shutdown, which could give us the house back.  Even with that, though, we'll need a little margin in the senate to actually pass budgets.  This would be a huge seat.

From MO-3, college in CT-3, lived in NH-1, NH-2, PA-2, and MA-8 in the 3 years since.

A government shutdown?
Do you mean in September? I'm thinking that that the vote for the Ryan plan in the House may be the thing that blows a hole in the bottom of their boat more than anything else.

But yes, we do need to make a play for some of their senate seats, and not just the ones in Massachusetts (it still burns my ass to type that) and Nevada. It's entirely possible we will have attractive opportunities in Indiana, Arizona, and Maine, but I'd like to see some movement on the seats in North Dakota (which of course is ours now), Texas, and even Tennessee.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Precisely
Boehner's ability to get his caucus to act sane seems to be limited limited. My guess is some large fraction of the caucus rolls into September with a "Ryan plan or nothing" negotiation strategy.  Which would be, needless to say, insane.  If they shut the government down over their demand to destroy Medicare, the entire male staff of the DCCC would have to be treated for acute priapism.

From MO-3, college in CT-3, lived in NH-1, NH-2, PA-2, and MA-8 in the 3 years since.
[ Parent ]
Yeah, really.
At that point, why not start making a play for almost every congressional district in the country, or at least all of the ones in states Obama plans on contesting? You'd either see a significant number of Republicans bolt from the party platform on this or a huge wedge driven between the base and the candidates. If they could take an average or two three from just the swing states, they'd more than easily take back the House. And when you add in states like New York and California, the numbers could really climb.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Definitely winnable
While these two candidates appear quite evenly matched, I also give the edge to Berkley.  Her base in Clark/Las Vegas is clearly preferable to Heller's in Washoe and the cow counties, especially given his recent reinvention as a dyed in the wool tea partier, and of course we are dealing with a presidential turnout scenario.  While there won't be a spectacular Whitman/Schwarzenegger-style ad to run, linking Heller to Angle and reminding voters of national Republicans' Angle-esque policy positions should be pretty easy given the high profile of the 2010 Senate campaign.

The big question is money.  Reid had gobs of it because he was in the marquee race of the cycle; even though Berkley presents Democrats' best pickup opportunity, her campaign is going to have to work a little harder.  Reid also didn't have a Byron Georgiou to dispense with in the primary.

Will she really have any problem
with that, if she works for it? I imagine the argument of "I can help us keep the Senate for the Democrats" will unleash a flood of money from those would donate on the Internet. And since this is a Senate race instead of a presidential race, she doesn't have to work that many people to be successful. If 10,000 people gave her $500, she'd have $5,000,000.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Not a problem per se
but she will need to work harder.  Reid had a head start and a higher profile race.  And even without years of nearly full-time preparation, Angle raised just as much money as Reid did - $24M.  Of course, Berkley loves to talk about how nothing has ever been handed to her, and this is no exception.  IMO it's not a campaign-threatening challenge, just a challenge.
[ Parent ]
No, but Harry is close enough to Byron...
To urge him to knock it off and run for something else. But if Ralston is serious about Reid encouraging Byron Georgiou to run for a House seat, that puts that whole musical chairs game even more up in the air! Where will Byron want to run? If it's NV-01, Horsford can probably do away with him easily. But if it's NV-04, Dina Titus, Barbara Buckley, and John Oceguera will all be angry over yet another headache for them. And if it's NV-03, then we'll have to see if he can actually mount a serious challenge to Joe Heck.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Good
Best chance of picking up NV

18, Blue Dog Democrat, Male, NC-09 (Home), LA-06(College)  
Another close race.
I wonder how many races are going to go down to the wire.  

19, Male, Conservative, NC-06 (SC-04 college)  
ever since martin heinrich
dems seem to be getting their top recruits (kaine and berkley so far).

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
It's a Presidential year...
Much easier to recruit when you have Obama on the top of the ticket and the GOP Presidential primary class seems to be lacking at the moment.

[ Parent ]
Also, it seems
like there's more action on the Republican side because there is. But that's only because we already have candidates for most of the competitive races, while they do not.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I don't know about that...
We have Connecticut, Nevada, New Mexico, and Virginia covered, but we lack credible candidates in Arizona, Massachusetts, and North Dakota, or in Maine and Indiana in the event that Lugar or Snowe are 'bagged. We also need an acceptible candidate in Hawaii. And it doesn't hurt to have someone lined up in potentially close races, such as Texas, maybe Tennessee, and even Utah where a perfect storm could create an opportunity.  So really, we're only about half-way there.
[ Parent ]
Well,
the point is that we already have candidates for most of our seats because we already hold them and will be running incumbents in most of them. We will be defending 23 seats out of 33 (including those in Connecticut and Vermont, of course). We still need candidates in the more marginal races, but at this point, we have settled candidates in 17 of the 33 seats up in 2012. Make that 18 if we include Kohl. We haven't settled on a candidate in New Mexico, Connecticut, or Hawaii, but they will probably stay in our column, so little difference. That's more like 21. And while Virginia isn't as likely to stay in our column, we have a clear front runner. That's 22. We certainly do need candidates in the other states, but now, we are talking about 11.

Meanwhile, the Republicans not only haven't settled on a candidates in long shot states like New York or Maryland, they haven't even settled on a candidate in better opportunities, like those in Ohio or Florida. They will obviously fill those slots, and the ups and downs of doing so makes it seem like there's more action going only because there is more action going on. There has to be, because they aren't running incumbents and/or are favored to hold the seat. That's my point.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
back in 02
one of the arguments for johnson in SD was that dems needed to keep the senate for daschle to remain majority leader.  I wonder if that would be an acceptable strategy, or if reid's still too unpopular to associate herself with.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
The argument should be framed as
"Dems need to keep the Senate" and not mention Reid.  Although, in this race, Berkley won't push him away as she actually got her start in politics by working on his nailbitingly close 1974 Senate campaign against Paul Laxalt.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
No, not really.
Last year's election proved that most Nevadans are savvy enough to put aside whatever personal misgivings they have with Reid in order to keep him as Majority Leader and keep the juice flowing here. It would be nothing short of foolish for Shelley to distance herself from her. She would NEVER do that, as you correctly noted her start in politics... And she now needs him to tap his network of key Vegas, Reno, and Carson power players for her.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Yes, but
Johnson and Daschle were from the same state.

And the argument didn't work THAT well - Johnson won by a few hundred votes against Thune in 2002, Thune never stopped running, then defeated Daschle himself in 2004 as soon as it was obvious the GOP was going to take the chamber anyway (thanks, southern Dems, for all retiring at once).  

[ Parent ]
"Johnson and Daschle were from the same state. "
....um, as are Berkley and Reid.

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42
[ Parent ]
NV-02 questions
Right-wingers Lippold and Angle are in, who else?  Also, is the Treasurer still strongly considering running as well?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Yes, she is...
And all the turmoil so far on the GOP side has made it even more attractive to her... And to others. Assembly Member Debbie Smith (D-Sparks) is flirting with a NV-02 run, as is Reno City Council Member (& losing 2010 Lt. Gov. candidate) Jessica Sferrazza. But if Kate Marshall really wants to do it, she can probably "pull a Berkley" and get the others to back off.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
It's a decent recruit, but I still see this as Lean R
I suspect many Independents might well vote-split an Obama/Heller ticket. Berkeley's a good candidate in that she brings home the Clark County base, but I still think this is probably Heller's to lose. Neither candidate strikes me as particularly gaffe-prone, but I don't think any Republicans will cross over and vote for Berekley, whereas conservaDems might bolt for Heller. It'll be a high single-digit victory, methinks.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
Disagree. It's a tossup.
NV turned blue in 2008 and was one of a very few states with a high-profile Dem incumbent Senator to survive 2010. Obama will turn out the minorities that Berkley needs in Clark County. The question is really how massively Berkley wins Clark, and how narrowly she wins Reno. If she can pull 60+% in Clark, 55%+ in Reno and steal some votes from Carson City (Heller's home turf, but light blue) along the way, she's in. If Heller can beat her in the Clark suburbs by a decent margin and keep her votes in Reno and Carson City down, it'll be way close.

And it's not as though Berkley is particularly liberal for a Dem, either. I think she'll keep the base together pretty well, unless, of course, Romney is the GOP nominee. Then all bets are off.  

[ Parent ]
carson city light blue?
Pretty sure that is not the case.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
Agree with this.
Reid lost it and Obama won it only narrowly while winning the state 55-43.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I don't think she needs 60% in Clark and 55% in Reno...
even Obama only got 58% in Clark. Unless you mean 55% in the city of Reno rather than Washoe as a whole (I don't know how Reno proper votes), because if we assume that Heller overperforms in Washoe and Shelley overperforms in Clark, she can probably lose Washoe and still win as long as she kills it in Clark.

Basically, I'll be watching who Washoe votes for, but also if Shelley is taking Clark by double digits.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
No, she doesn't.
And if Shelley does get to 60% in Clark and 55% in Washoe, then she's winning in a double digit blowout statewide.

If Shelley overperforms in Clark and underperforms in Washoe, then the rural numbers might be key for her. Of course Heller will win there, but she will definitely want to keep his margins down.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Shelley can win on Clark alone
You don't need any rural votes really, Clark has 72% of the population.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
Ummm... Yes, she does.
The rurals aren't a huge portion of the population, but they're the folks that vote most often. Shelley just has to make sure she's not losing those counties by obscene 3-1 or 5-1 margins.

Last month, I had a chance to meet Nevada State Controller Kim Wallin during Equality Days. She couldn't stress enough the importance of campaigning in the rurals. She only BARELY won in 2006 because her campaign manager told her to ignore the rurals. Last year, she had a different plan and won by a wider margin.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
absolutely agree
Democrats running statewide in Nevada who ignore the rurals do so at their own peril.
[ Parent ]
Nevada is one of the most illustrative states for this
Obama and Reid lost outside Clark and Washoe, but winning elections is multi-faceted.  You don't lose counties 100-0.  You have to do decently in couinties that lean the other way, and you especially need to do well in blue areas of reddish counties.  The strip of counties between Washoe and Clark on the California border are going to go Republican, but in Obama's case he kept McCain under 60% in those counties, while losing all the other cow counties 60%+.
[ Parent ]
Yeah, but one small correction.
Reid won three counties.  He won Mineral County in addition to Washoe and Clark.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I think he meant Reid/Obama lost in the other counties in the aggregate
but if not, then worth mentioning that Obama won Carson City.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
you don't need to WIN rurals
but you need to perform well.

Berkley also needs to play in Washoe I think, even though that's Heller's home base. Heller will campaign in Vegas. He needs to do.

[ Parent ]
I need to see more polling
Though I suspect they will probably favor Heller by five points greater than reality as per usual.
[ Parent ]
Lean R is too generous
It's got to be tossup, because Berkley will win Clark County without much problem, which leaves Washoe as the deciding county and we don't know exactly what the margin there will be. The reality is that this isn't the sort of race that can be made Lean either way.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
I don't agree that Washoe will necessarily be the deciding county
I could very easily see a scenario where Berkley loses Washoe, but still wins statewide by running up a double-digit margin in Clark (really, that's going to be Heller's challenge, he can't let Berkley win Clark by double-digits, there simply aren't enough votes in the rest of the state for him to make that up).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Some numbers
Let's try to figure out a fairly bad starting place for Berkeley.

In 2008, the partisan breakdown was 38/30/32. Let's say that in 2012, it was more like 35/32/33. Let's also say that she only won 85 percent of Democrats, five percent of Republicans, and 40 percent of Independents. That would leave her with 44.55 percent. That's probably a floor, short of an implosion.

Let's readjust those numbers merely by changing the partisan breakdown back to what it was in 2008. She'd be up to 47 percent.

Now let's readjust them simply by having her consolidate more of the Democrats. If she were to get 90 percent of them under my alternate partisan breakdown, she'd be at 46.3 percent. If we used the 2008 breakdown, she'd be at 48.5 percent.

If she were to get 90 percent of Democrats and five percent of Republicans but increase to 45 percent of Independents, she'd be at 47.95 percent with my alternate partisan breakdown and 50.1 percent with a 2008 partisan breakdown. Notice how she's getting beat by a solid margin amongst Independents.

Maybe it does favor Heller, but if that's the case, that's barely the case. It looks far more like a toss up.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Tilts to Heller IMO

[ Parent ]
I think it's tilt D
It's probably about dead even on candidate appeal, with a conventional liberal against a conventional conservative in what's still a purplish state. But based on both 2008 and 2010 the Dems seem to be far better organized than the Reeps, and I think this will give them an edge that won't show up in polls.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
I agree
Plus Obama will be at the top, after winning NV by 12% in 2008...not exactly a close race then.
[ Parent ]
I wonder if that is the reason
For the seeming inability to poll the state accurately. Either that or the explosive Hispanic growth. Maybe a bit of both.
[ Parent ]
I wonder if that is the reason
For the seeming inability to poll the state accurately. Either that or the explosive Hispanic growth. Maybe a bit of both.
[ Parent ]
If you had asked me 2 months ago...
I would be agreeing with you. However, Mark Mellman's poll results told a very different story. While there is a risk of Northern Nevada Independents split with Obama/Heller tickets, down here in The South, Heller is a non-entity. And even though this state has grown tremendously, there are still a whole lot of voters who prefer to know the candidate they intend to vote for. As I've said before, Nevada is NOT California. People here don't just vote based on blind party ID or TV ads.

And don't underestimate Shelley's ability to win crossover votes. She actually got a slightly higher % of the vote than Harry Reid in NV-01 last fall. And because she's built a record on her pro-Israel advocacy (much to the chagrin of many local progressives), even Sheldon Adelson gave up on targeting her last decade. In addition, because Harry Reid has made clear he's on her side, MGM and Caesars will really have to think whether they want to piss him off by donating too much to Heller.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Why don't we see some polls first?

[ Parent ]
Well PPP did have her down double digits
Though maybe it was telling that Heller didn't release general electiln numbers with his Ensign internal. Anyway, pollsters seem to have so much trouble in the state I'm more than happy to take Ralston at his word that Berkley starts with a disadvantage.
[ Parent ]
So, about 3 weeks ago...
About 3 weeks ago people were bitching and moaning about Dem recruiting results and worriworts waxing philosophical about the impending doom

3 weeks later, we have preferred candidates in various races and things are certainly looking up.  Some will bitch about the slow-to-build field in Massachusetts, but that has to be seen as smaller potatoes since the race will form how it will no matter when everyone gets in, be it today or 2 months from now.

Don't exaggerate
Speaking for myself I was commenting on the fact the GOP had a flyer and it would be nice to see a response. Now we have. Good news.
[ Parent ]
I did it again.....
I went to RRH and I can't stop. They are referring to Berkley as a man. I should probably just stop going over there.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
Same crap at Dailykos
Evidently, we need "hotter" (women) candidates.

/snark

[ Parent ]
I have to say I'm pissed off
at the people on Kos for their nonstop chatter about her appearance. Someone did make a remark about her being a "transvestite" which doesn't make sense anyways, but everyone smacked him down and HR'd him.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
I saw that, I was floored
how disgusting.

I mean I have issues with the blogsphere, but I never thought they would cross that line

[ Parent ]
That site can be so ridiculous sometimes
They got the idea for the site from SSP, but none of the class. We do say some things here sometimes, but for the most part, I think it stays civil.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
They can go to hell.
I've seen far too many transgender people suffer because of crap like that. It's just not cool. Putting aside my feelings about Shelley, I just don't appreciate the "she's a man" BS.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
That's what especially bothered me about it.
Of course it was notpjorourke who brought it up.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
So he's hanging out there now?
I never really got the sense he's a Dem. And regardless of his party affiliation or ideology, I just don't appreciate that kind of personal attack against someone, especially not when I know people who are suffering from real discrimination based on that crap.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
It was pretty obvious from the tone of his posts here that he was not a Democrat.
I looked at his comments on RRH once, and he referred to Republican recruits as being on "our side" or something like that, so...

Either way, I don't miss him.

[ Parent ]
Agreed
he was pretty much just rdelbov lite.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I always had the impression
from his posts that he was an ex-Republican, but is now a centrist indie that slightly favors Dems over Repubs.

I guess I was wrong.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
That's intriguing, notpj was very sneaky here......
I, too, at times thought him a GOPer, but he kept it close enough to the vest that I could never be sure, and at times I thought nah, he's just a cantankerous Dem.

My original suspicion was right.

The only SSPer I've ever thought was a GOPer but appears to be a Dem after all was Mark, although even in his case I'm surprised he stopped coming around much after the election, and virtually never in recent months.  But I suppose he might not be interested in spring training, maybe his interest is limited to the regular season (i.e., the months leading up to the actual election).

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
He was the king of negative "concern"
He was the best on SSP of what they called in the 60s "agent provocateurs".  He tried to sound like "one of us" but virtually every comment was destructive.
[ Parent ]
Yup, good take. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
I never thought of notpj as anything but a Republican
From the bat he admitted that he used to work for Wayne Gilchrest. He was certainly very cute about the whole thing, making use of some shticks like "well I was a Republican but I'm not voting for them because of the direction the party has taken" or "I dislike Todd Akin personally but I'm going to go around in every thread talking about how he is invincible in 2012."

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I didn't know he used to work for Gilchrist, I missed that completely. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
At first I thought
they were being idiotic, like when Rush Limbaugh claimed Sherrod Brown was black. But if they were doing what you said--if they were implying she looks like a man--then they are way off. Fuck 'em indeed.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
For the record, I spoke up against it over there
We'll see what comes of it.
[ Parent ]
In our defense
The comments about Berkley's appearance were even more widespread at DKos.

I hold by the point I made over there: this is a horrible picture of her, and if I were her campaign manager I would not want it to be people's first impression of her. She's capable of looking much better, for example, in this picture.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
I mentioned that earlier.
It is disgusting, but when someone tried to call her a man everyone at least had the sense to smack that person down and HR him. It's both offensive to women of power and the transgendered community.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
At least her profile photo isn't nightmare fuel like Bob Filner's.
If I were several years younger, this would probably haunt my dreams for a week.
Photobucket

Also, nobody can top Dan Lipinski's profile photo in the ugly department. (photo redacted for obvious reasons)

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
Damn it, I had no idea the jpeg was so big!
Someone delete that, it was a mistake.  I meant to do a thumbnail.

I'm so embarrassed.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
Crisis Averted, pic is deleted
For a manageable-sized thumbnail, go here:
http://www.memberguide.gpoacce...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Political separated at birth: Bob Filner and the Joker
"Why so serious?"

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Do I need to pull out Capri Cafaro's picture again?

[ Parent ]
Capri Cafaro: The first gynoid to run for Congress.
http://images.politico.com/glo...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Delete that comment this is replying to.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
The issue was not the original diary
but user notpjorourke's response to the diary -- and the response of RRH to it, as shown in this subthread  http://www.redracinghorses.com...

In one line, it

1) Questioned Berkley's sexuality
2) Slurred older women by attacking their choices in makeup and hair
3) Repeated a common bias against the transgendered in our society.

The response was disappointing, given user notpjorourke's history, specifically http://redracinghorses.com/sho... , where he took a cheap shot at a former President's daughter who has passed away, and the commendable reaction of RRH against that.

In addition, RRH did well to tamp down some homophobic rhetoric here http://redracinghorses.com/sho...

My observation of RRH is that overall they've done quite well to moderate out the insensitive rhetoric frequently seen from Rs against several different constituencies. (That includes incidents beyond the ones I've noted.) Having been a moderator myself elsewhere, I know this is a difficult job.

However, this particular subthread IMO is a disappointment.

[ Parent ]
Wow, I have to hand it to MosheM
he is quite good at being a douchebag. His resume will sure look nice now that it has both "blog troll" and "raging homophobe."

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Why go there?
Do you miss RyainInDelco, notpjorourke, tekzilla and the rest of the people banned from this site?

[ Parent ]
Tekzilla's still around.
But why was notpjorourke banned?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I don't remember notpjorourke ever getting banned
...and Tekzilla, what? He's not banned to my knowledge, I don't see what he would have done considering that he's a Democrat and he stopped the "WE'RE ALL DOOMED" business a while back.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Just checked...neither are banned.
notpjorourke has not posted since 3/23, though.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I'm not even sure why I do it.


19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
I
go there and I like it. Yes there is Democrat bashing from time to time but there is Republican bashing here. I like to get both perspectives. I think it keeps me balanced. Sometimes I roll my eyes at comments but I'm sure Republicans do the same here. I do not like the SSP bashing some of the users do, I'll give you that. The front pagers are good at what they do, especially GOPVOTER (or JamesNOLA there). Not trying to be rude but If its not for you then you do not have to go there. I like it but to each is own. As for the comment, I have not read it but if it is very bad they will warn the users responsible. A user started gay bashing and he got told off by the front pagers and another reffered to Obama as Hussein and got told off by users and front pagers alike.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
For the same reason that Rs come here
to make sure that we're not in an echo chamber.
[ Parent ]
Warned, banned wahtever
The point isn't about those specific people, it was more about their views and types of commentary.

I'd rather wait for GOPVoter to post on ehre than seeking another GOP voice on RRH.

[ Parent ]
Huh?
I'm still here, no idea what you mean grouping me with those people.  I am an actual Liberal who roots for our team who just happened to think 2010 was going to be bad before everyone else.  

29/D/Male/NY-01
[ Parent ]
That's awful
I listened to her for 30 seconds on her Web site and she looks and sounds like she's from Brooklyn. She might even be wearing a sheitel.  
[ Parent ]
I don't understand this criticism at all.
Who the hell cares what her accent sounds like?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
No. You don't know me.
Chuck Schumer sounds so heimish, I could listen to him all day.
And my parents are from Brooklyn.

Obviously not a criticism since Berkley has been, from the same site, heavily involved in Nevada for 40 years.  

[ Parent ]
It certainly
sounded like a criticism. I don't think you were bigoted, by the way. I just think you were placing far too much emphasis on an accent--an accent, by the way, that sounds far less like Rosie Perez or Angie Martinez than people here seem to think it does--and its ability to affect the race in a state she's lived in for a long time.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
That's because you're normal
You don't think someones accent or their hair is a huge concern.  Others do, and its on both sides.  

Alex Sink's southern sound was supposed to help her in the FL panhandle and help her win, it didn't happen.

However I think for msot of us on here we're more concerned with say John Boehner's politics as opposed to his prema-tan, but I don't think anyone on RRH knows Shelley Berkley today so those inclined to not like Dems will attack what they see first, her appearance.

[ Parent ]
I should say that I get that some people
consider this a liability, and maybe in some circumstances it could be. But if it hasn't hurt her so far, why is it all of a sudden going to become this big problem, even if she is running statewide? It's hardly that extreme.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Didn't Sink win the panhandle?
She outperformed in North Florida, if I remember rightly. It was the lack of base turnout that cost her the election.
[ Parent ]
She won the Tallahassee area

[ Parent ]
I don't know if the accent thing was a criticism
Me, I just like New York accents, and in particular how they get exported across the country.  

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)
[ Parent ]
Heh.
My mom is originally from Rhode Island, and even after living on Long Island for decades, she still cannot properly pronounce some of the Native American names that we use her. It's really pretty amusing.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
That's funny
You're from LI and your mom's from RI. I'm from RI and my dad's from LI. (where in RI is your mom from btw?)

we have some confusing Indian names here too though. Escoheag, Pascoag (hint: that g is silent), Wampanoag, Pawtucket (emphasis on the second syllable, contrary to what Family Guy says), etc.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
Providence
More specifically, East Providence, I think. Interestingly enough, former Lt. Gov. and former Congressman Bob Weygand's wife Fran is one of her best childhood friends.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
which one?
East Providence is a separate city. do you know if she's from East Providence or the East Side of Providence? (either way, that Weygand connection is pretty cool.)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I'm pretty sure it's East Providence, the city.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Cool!
That's where Meredith Vieira is from. It's also got Sunshine Creamery, whose ice cream is forever a part of my childhood, and it is also one of the most solidly Democratic areas of the state, voting 55-39 for David Cicilline and 37-28-28 Chafee-Robitaille-Caprio.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
AFAIK
The only accent thing Nevadans care about is if you refer to their state as "Ne-vaw-da" (wrong) instead of "Ne-vah-da" (right).

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
Many Nevadans were born out-of-state
Dina Titus, if you remember, has a thick Georgian accent.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I hope so
If their population growth the last 3 decades was from in-state births the birth rate would be insanely high :-)
[ Parent ]
In the same
way that there isn't that much to do in the snowy parts of the Midwest, maybe there isn't that much to do in the desert. Besides making babies, I mean.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Ummm, wrong!
maybe there isn't that much to do in the desert

Ahem... National Geographic Adventure named us the #1 best place to live & play! :-p

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Well, what's there to do?
Obviously, this was a joke, but seriously, what can I do in a rural Nevada town?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Look for ghosts...
Check out the brothels, bribe some local politicians, hunt for UFOs, capture wild horses...

There's always something to do in rural Nevada!

But actually, the above link is for Vegas. Seriously, we're within reach of 13 national parks! We have plenty of natural beauty in our desert. :-)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
And heat.
Oh my God, so much heat.  Oh my freaking God, Netroots Nation last summer in Vegas was SO RIDICULOUSLY FREAKING HOT.  Y'all may have natural beauty there, but there's no way in hell I'm going to see it if I'm in Nevada.  I'm staying in air-conditioned locations the whole way through, LOL.
[ Parent ]
Close
Rep. Titus was from Texas, I believe.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
nope
from Georgia, went to school in FL, worked in TX for only a year and then moved to NV: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D...
[ Parent ]
Credit to Patty Murray
Gotta give Patty her props. I was skeptical at first since it seemed like no one wanted anything to do with the DSCC this cycle, but Murray really has brought in the top recruits for a lot of the races so far.
Heinrich, Kaine, Murphy, and Berkley are all candidates I (and the rest of the party) can be proud to rally behind.
As far as recruitment goes, my eyes are now on Arizona, Massachussetts, Indiana, Maine, and Hawaii. Hopefully she can find a real progressive to run against Ed Case.

Hometown: PA-8, Currently: CA-30.
Alt. Delegate to the CA DEMs from the 41st Assembly District.
Btw, in case you've been wondering...
I drew a Nevada map last month assuming Heller and Berkley Senate runs. I'm even more confident now that we may see a final map from The Legislature that at least somewhat resembles this... Unless they can't agree on any map, and the courts have to decide!

Perhaps I'll release another Nevada map over the weekend... ;-)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

weird seeing the Reno district shrink so much
I've been so used to seeing it take up 95% of the geographical area of the state.  Of course it must shrink to make space for the new district, but it's just going to take some getting used to.
[ Parent ]
Heller and Rehberg both voted against the FY2011 Budget compromise bill
Afraid of their right wing.  It's probably far enough away from the election to matter, but do moves like this play poorly in 2012 Senate campaigns?  They voted against a bill that passed with bipartisan support, that the majority of Republicans in the House supported.  It's pretty easy to argue they're "outside of the mainstream."

Flake voted against it too but that's not really a surprise.

Too far out to matter, I think
n/t

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
Yeah I meant to say
Far enough away to not matter.  
[ Parent ]
What will matter
Is when they vote for the Ryan Budget and / or a government shutdown that actually happens later.
[ Parent ]
Roll Call vote on CR for those interested:
http://clerk.house.gov/evs/201...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Oooh, interesting news in there for new IA-03......
Boswell and Latham both voted yes.  Not surprised by either, both are establishmentarians and dealmakers.

But if Latham moves and they run against each other, that's one issue neutralized.

Meanwhile, Braley and Loebsack voted "no" from the left, and Steve King of course voted "no" from crazyland.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Strange roll call, at first glance
Pelosi-Nay, Hoyer-Yay.  Split leadership can't be too common.  Also, DeFazio-Yay, Fattah-Yay, Speier-Yay, but Lee, Frank, Capuano, DeLauro, Kucinich, Larson all Nay.  Hirono is Nay, Hanabusa is Yay.  There'll be some interesting DW-Nominate graphs out of all this.  (My apologies if this is veering into policy--my interest at the moment isn't so much the bill itself but the nature of the split).  My first reaction is, what kind of "liberal no" has Pelosi but not DeFazio?

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)
[ Parent ]
I hope that split with Hirono and Hanabusa
doesn't portend to anything. I don't think it would. It's probably that Hirono is close to Pelosi. I wish one of them would announce soon. I would prefer Hirono, but if it's Hanabusa that's fine.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Hirono also has the more liberal district
So it might be ideology, or ideology claim-staking.  Hanabusa's district might be more dependent on the military, so she might fear a shutdown more...could be any number of things.

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)
[ Parent ]
heh
Berkley voted for it, Heller voted against it. I think he's worried about getting primaried. In contrast, she has nothing to worry about and can tack to the center. If this keeps up, he may end up with a record that's very hard to defend in a general election.

Basically this vote was mainstream Reeps and moderate Dems against tea party Reeps and liberal Dems.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Super!
It could go either way but I am sure glad to have her as a candidate. Can we get Titus to succeed her? I love her as well and do not want Reid as his baggage is not needed here.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
DSCC rolling one out every week.
Seems like a good approach. Heinrich, Kaine, Berkley week after week.  I'm guessing next it'll be Joe Donnelly in Indiana.
NV-Sen: Shelley Berkley Is In | 140 comments

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