Well

That blows. I halfheartedly expect this to end up in court to force two VRA districts.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

---

by: wmayes @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 20:31:26 PM UTC

It still could go to court

They have to have a map first before anyone could sue. Plus, the map has to be pre0cleared by DOJ or DC Circuit.

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08

---

by: M Riles @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 20:39:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I Know

Thats exactly why I expect it to end up in court.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

---

by: wmayes @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 20:43:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sorry

I misread "expect" as "expected" for some reason

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08

---

by: M Riles @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 20:46:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The Obama DOJ needs to not preclear this map!

As I and several others have shown, it is very easy to draw a Gingles-compliant, reasonably compact, 2nd VRA district in Louisiana (basically north-south along the Mississippi, dipping into Monroe, Alexandria, Baton Rouge, and maybe Lafayette would get you that district.  You can then draw a 2nd New Orleans-based seat.

Of course, politically, that would mean that the GOP sacrifice not one but two seats, so I can understand why the state legislature would try to pass something like this again.  But this needs to be rejected and/or litigated.

---

by: jsramek @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 01:27:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's overkill

and racial gerrymandering, (what does Monroe have in common with North Lafayette?).

I showed on this very thread you don't even really have to do that. You can get a compact south-central LA seat to be majority black with out much difficult and it doesn't go north of Concordia or west of Alexandria and Pineville.

---

by: jwaalk @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 02:36:50 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I was going off of rough memory

of what I did... can you repost your map please?

---

by: jsramek @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 03:13:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I agree

I agree with those of you who said the Obama DOJ should fight this. They should go for a second black VRA district.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

---

by: duffman @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 03:17:36 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Here it is:

http://www.legis.state.la.us/b...
One ugly 6th district. Tonight on RRH I will have full info and analysis, particularly on the Landry-Boustany match.  

---

by: GOPVOTER @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 20:33:26 PM UTC

wait

is it this map or the one on the top of this thread?

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

---

by: trowaman @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 20:43:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Argh

Which is it? The article I linked says the vote came on HB6, which is the map I used.

---

by: DavidNYC @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 20:50:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

HB 6

They are both HB 6. The one you posted is the original, the one that should have passed. The one I posted is the amended bill that passed. I think.  

---

by: GOPVOTER @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 20:50:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think its this one

The one at the top is the original plan that came out about 2 weeks ago. That plan was rejected by the Senate. The plan I posted is HB 6, the same plan rejected by the Senate last week, but it is the plan that had been amended by the House and Senate a few times and the one linked by Greg Giroux.  

---

by: GOPVOTER @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 20:50:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I am pretty sure you are right

Man, Louisiana has been wildly confusing. I will update with the proper map.

---

by: DavidNYC @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 20:53:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm still having trouble

believing that Republicans choose to pack most of the black voters in South Louisiana into one district. I'm really disappointed they played politics rather that supporting minority representation and creating a second black-majority district in a state that is 41% black. The DoJ would not be doing its job if it didn't challenge this.  

---

by: jwaalk @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 20:44:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

32%

According to the census LA is 32% black, not 41%. Doing a second majority-black district would strain the definition of "community of interest" more than a New Orleans to Baton Rouge district does.

41, Ind, CA-05

---

by: sacman701 @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 20:47:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

33% of six...

is two is the most proportional number of VRA seats to have in the state.  

---

by: eschaton @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 20:52:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not really

I've done a map of it, even shown it. The first of the black-VRA districts, the NOLA one, looks about as ugly as the current one does, but takes in more Jefferson Parish and none of Baton Rouge, although it does remain, obviously, 50.1% black. The West Baton Rouge Parish, and the black neighborhoods of East Baton Rouge parish are put in one district, which takes in St. Helena, the Feliciana's, St. Landry, Pointe Coupee, Iberville, Avoyelles, Carencro and the black areas of north Lafayette Parish, and the Pineville-Alexandria metro area, and it makes a district that is 54% or so black and more or less located in the same region.

And my mistake, Louisiana's total minority population is around 40%, not just the black population.

---

by: jwaalk @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 20:54:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's what I was thinking

Obviously, the district on this map was trying to avoid retrogression, but it seems like it packs together black voters unnecessarily. A second district would be more sensible.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

---

by: DrPhillips @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 21:08:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'll show what I'm talking about

as soon as photobucket comes back up. It's down right now.  

---

by: jwaalk @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 21:24:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Just try imagshack.us

---

by: DavidNYC @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 22:02:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thanks, here was what I was talking about:

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

---

by: jwaalk @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 22:19:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

More or less, but some tweaking

is likely needed.

---

by: jwaalk @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 22:20:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

my mistake

The blue one looks better than 4 of the 6 districts they actually drew. The green one is fugly but no worse than the LA2 they drew. The problem I see is that the area north of the green one and east of the blue one is boxed in, and unless its population is exactly enough for one district you have to connect it to the area south of New Orleans by having the green one dump at least those two easternmost precincts.  

41, Ind, CA-05

---

by: sacman701 @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 22:26:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You could technically use water

Continuity, (because i think it's more like 1.5 districts in that boxed in territory, or curve off some of the land area of outer Orleans Parish that is most white and thinly populated.  

---

by: jwaalk @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 22:32:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

water contiguity

You could actually make the same connection that the legislature has. That green swath of water would have the be blue but it doesn't affect population  

---

by: GOPVOTER @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 23:31:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

doesn't look too bad

But looks shouldn't even be an issue, because if NC-12 (Mel Watt's district) is okay, then pretty much anything goes.  Still, it is quite easy to draw a couple of black majority districts in Louisiana that are visually pleasing, as you demonstrate.  In a state that is almost a third black, African-Americans should have legitimate chances at two districts.  Under the GOP plan, they would only be able to compete in one.

---

by: skaje @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 01:41:02 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah

No reason at all that the 2nd has to be 63% African American.  It was about that last time, though.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

---

by: Tiger in BlueDenver @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 21:25:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not intentional

They aren't trying to pack black voters. Its just that once you get into Baton Rouge the black population is so densely packed. Many precincts are over 90% black, so what starts out as a low 50's VAP population before getting to EBR goes up to the 60s

---

by: GOPVOTER @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 21:28:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Other options besides EBR

Like Alexandria/Pineville, Shreveport and surround AA areas up north.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

---

by: Tiger in BlueDenver @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 21:30:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's not a good idea

Cleo Fields' district shouldn't be a model.

---

by: jwaalk @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 21:31:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Like I said,

It's unnecessary. I really look forward to showing you my version. The 2nd looks ugly, but it was going to regardless because of Katrina. But the other district is remarkable compact and fairly straightforward with its communities of interest.  

---

by: jwaalk @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 21:30:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't know about that

The way the 6th wraps around the 2nd looks like it was drawn intentionally for the specific effect.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

---

by: DrPhillips @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 21:34:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Why?

If they didn't have 2 before, and now they've lost a district, why would you expect 2 VRA districts now? I'm not getting this argument here.  

---

by: UpstateNYer @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 20:47:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

They had one at one point

But it was a big gerrymander where Democrats tried to get a district out of northern LA by packing all the black voters in that part of the state into one spiderweb of a district.

I was just noting that the state really should have a second VRA district at this point.  

---

by: jwaalk @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 20:51:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

cleo fields

I am glad that monstrosity got struck down. I hate ugly districts, and that is one of the ugliest in history. Anyone bot familiar with that district should look it up. It's a piece of work.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

---

by: OGGoldy @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 21:07:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I did a post on it once

I thought it was an amazing district!

---

by: DavidNYC @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 21:11:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

This second map is much more distgusting

and much more obviously a gerrymander. And terribly so. Taking all the black areas about of Cassidy's district while taking heavily Democratic Pointe Coupee and needless taking in the southern halves of black, Mississippi river counties?

I seriously can't fathom how they created a district that stretches from Monroe to Bogalusa and Hammond.  

---

by: jwaalk @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 21:22:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Why?

If they didn't have 2 before, and now they've lost a district, why would you expect 2 VRA districts now? I'm not getting this argument here.  

---

by: UpstateNYer @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 20:50:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm not sure...

You want to be highlighting the Bush-era DoJ as making all the right decisions regarding VRA seats in the south here.

---

by: eschaton @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 20:53:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

He's a Republican

it's not terribly surprising.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

---

by: sapelcovits @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 21:50:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

communities of interest

the new LA-02 is already putting a lot of people in districts where they don't belong. Another VRA (or minority-influenced district) would have made it even worse

---

by: GOPVOTER @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 20:52:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

See my comment above

GOPVOTER. Arguably, from when I've drawn such a map, communities of interest are less split by making a second VRA map.  

---

by: jwaalk @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 20:55:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The Problem

Is that New Orleans is fast becoming similar to Little Rock. A city with a substantial black population, but not substantial enough to constitute a VRA district on its own. Eventually there won't be a dense enough pocket of african americans to constitute a VRA district... Which will suck for Democrats.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

---

by: wmayes @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 20:45:53 PM UTC

The only positive note

I can take from this map is that it looks like the 5th gets substantially more Democratic, with St. Landry, St. Helena, and the Feliciana's, Benville, Winn, Lincoln and Jackson are also swingish counties when it comes to state politics.

I can't tell where they split Pineville-Alexandria in Rapides, but it looks like they might have followed the river and cleanly severed them, which also means they dumped a substantial African American population away from the 5th and into the 4th which had the room to spare.

It's sad to say this, but it looks like those two northern counties are the Democrats best chances at pick ups. Unless Landry wins the GOP primary in the 3rd and Chris John makes a comeback attempt.  

---

by: jwaalk @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 20:49:08 PM UTC

They are the best chances

Especially the 5th, I think.  In the map up top that DavidNYC put up, the 6th wasn't hideous, but the amended one made it beyond hideous (looks like Baton Rouge links with NOLA, yes?).

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

---

by: Tiger in BlueDenver @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 21:00:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The 6th

looks like a fish swallowing up a sea creature (the 2nd).

I think it was necessary to expand the 2nd to BR to keep a black majority as per VRA due to post-Katrina depopulation, but here it looks at first glance like they tried to carefully pack the African American precincts into one so as not to risk a GOP loss of the 6th, as happened briefly recently.  Whether it's contrived enough to spark a court challenge or DOJ objections remains to be seen.

35, Male, Democrat, MD-8

---

by: MikeinMD @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 21:09:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

wow

It seriously, seriously does. Especially with the placement of the district number. Hasn't New Orleans suffered enough? Now sea monsters are coming for them!!!

---

by: Venslor @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 06:02:43 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Is LA-02/LA-06

really all that much different than AL-07/AL-06? I mean, comparing a map to Alabama's gross one is not exactly the strongest defense one can offer, but at least isn't there some sort of precedent for such an arrangement?

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

---

by: Nico @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 06:16:24 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Creating two Black communities of interest

isn't that difficult. Have one New Orleans based one that doesn't take in that white suburbs in Jefferson County. Have another extend from Baton Rouge to the MS Delta and have a few spider webs to Lafayette, Opetousas and Alexandra. Bam two VRA districts.  

---

by: IdahoSocialist @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 21:00:07 PM UTC

how do the districts line up

Politically?  

19, Male, Conservative, NC-06 (SC-04 college)  

---

by: aggou @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 21:00:21 PM UTC

Realistically

Only the NOLA district is Democratic.  The 5th, around Shreveport/Bossier, might be gettable, but it's gotta be Likely R.  The 3rd is ancestrally Democratic and, if Chris John/John Breaux ran, it might be competitive, but it's been GOP territory for awhile (early-mid 90s).  The rest are solid GOP.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

---

by: Tiger in BlueDenver @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 21:03:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oops

Not 5th...4th!

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

---

by: Tiger in BlueDenver @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 21:07:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'd like to see how this map changes PVI

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 21:18:59 PM UTC

LA-05

Scott Angelle now lives here. He could run when Alexander retires, if he isn't Gov or Sen by then.  

---

by: GOPVOTER @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 21:30:39 PM UTC

Woops

Not in this map he isnt  

---

by: GOPVOTER @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 21:47:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think the new second district

arguably has the same problem as the TX-25 that the Supreme Court struck down in LULAC v. Perry. Moreover, there's arguably a vote dilution claim for black residents of the 4th and 5th because it is possible to draw a second reasonably compact minority-majority district centered around Baton Rouge. At least, it seems to be.  

---

by: andgarden @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 21:51:46 PM UTC

LULAC v. Perry

The Supreme Court struck down TX-23, not TX-25, and because it did not have a reliable Hispanic majority among VAP. That is quite clearly not the case with regard to black population in this LA-02. I think this map will survive.

20 years old, male, GA-12 (home), GA-10 (school); previously lived in CA-29, CA-28, CA-23, IL-06, IL-14, GA-01.

---

by: Nathaniel90 @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 21:58:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You tell me whether TX-25

was actually struck down or just collateral damage. The Kennedy opinion calls it a racial gerrymander, and it was totally redrawn on remand (I don't have time to pull up the final order), but I'm not sure that he got a majority for that proposition. I think there were 4 votes (CJ, S, T, A) for it to survive strict scrutiny.  

---

by: andgarden @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 22:09:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

We should draw a map

And file a suit. I'm serious.

---

by: DavidNYC @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 22:05:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

.

Do it.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

---

by: wmayes @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 22:06:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I agree.

There's something wrong with a map that goes from Ruston to Bogalusa.  

---

by: jwaalk @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 22:21:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Find a plaintiff

and a lawyer licensed in LA, and it's surely possible.  

---

by: andgarden @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 22:11:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Or, preparing for contingencies

be prepared to advise the DOJ to object and/or submit a brief to the D.C. Circuit.  

---

by: andgarden @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 22:12:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm going to email my election law prof

Who is a big litigant in cases like this.

---

by: DavidNYC @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 22:23:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not a bad idea

I was chatting with mine a couple of months ago, and he said that there's very little activity on that front right now. An issue of money I think.  

---

by: andgarden @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 22:36:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Believe you get automatic attorneys' fees

If you win a VRA case. In fact, that's a big part of how my prof made his living. So that doesn't really make sense - it's contingency work with a very deep-pocketed opponent who always pays (as long as you win).

---

by: DavidNYC @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 23:28:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

hmm

Perhaps it's just a matter of risk and uncertainty, then. I'll be interested to hear what you find.  

---

by: andgarden @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 23:32:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well also

Now we finally have something to sink our teeth into. Before, it was all just guesses. Is your prof a Dem, and does he do VRA litigation? If so, maybe worth reaching out to him, too. (My guy wouldn't have much reason to remember me, so I'm not sure if he'll write back.)

---

by: DavidNYC @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 23:41:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes, and not so far as I know, respectively

His bread and butter is local stuff. (I'm happy to let you know who I'm talking about by email, of course).

---

by: andgarden @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 23:54:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah

Shoot me an email. It's in the sidebar or my profile.

---

by: DavidNYC @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 01:09:31 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sent

---

by: andgarden @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 01:22:52 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes, please

This is gross. It's been almost a half century since we passed the VRA, and Republicans are still trying to take away blacks' right to vote.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

---

by: xcave @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 01:26:30 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

No kidding

A lawsuit is a capital idea. Somebody's gotta do it.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

---

by: SaoMagnifico @ Fri Apr 15, 2011 at 09:18:51 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Don't mess...

With SSP.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

---

by: SaoMagnifico @ Fri Apr 15, 2011 at 09:17:56 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

making a second vra seat

is much easier this time around because La. lost a congressional seat due to population loss. With seven seats it was much more difficult, but with six it can be done. If the DOJ allows this crap to pass without comment then something is wrong. This Republican endorsed second district is nothing but a racial gerrymander packing as many African Americans as they can into one district. Period! The Grand Old Party did the same thing in Virginia's third district.

---

by: 06STS @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 22:05:57 PM UTC

question

does anybody want to read my hs senior thesis on racial gerrymandering? it seems relevant here

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

---

by: jncca @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 22:16:36 PM UTC

High school seniors have to write a thesis?

Wow, that's a tough break. My college one is stressing me out enough; I can't imagine what it would have been like to write one when I was in high school.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

---

by: MassGOP @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 22:39:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Dude, aren't you a sophomore?

it's way too early to stress out!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

---

by: sapelcovits @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 23:13:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Depends

If he's like me and front-loaded the upper division courses to optimize grad school chances (basics are simply easier to get good grades in; grad schools usually only consider the last 60 hours). I've got another year left, in which I have three true classes and an internship only each semester. Only two of all of those courses are upper division...  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

---

by: wmayes @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 23:21:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Junior

As I'm sure you're aware, this is the year when it all gets way too real.....

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

---

by: MassGOP @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 01:19:10 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I actually haven't had it that bad, besides some stress about finding an advisor/narrowing down my topic

I know at Columbia (and maybe Princeton?) they have to get really legit about their thesis (maybe even start writing it?) junior year.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

---

by: sapelcovits @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 01:27:48 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah

And I didn't just mean the thesis, I mean the whole "real life is approaching way too fast" complex that I've had for the past month or two!

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

---

by: MassGOP @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 03:51:37 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Same

That's been a common theme in my anxiety issues for a few years.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

---

by: wmayes @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 05:29:04 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

yeah, at my school

all seniors do. it's nothing like a college one (i'm in ap lit, and it only needed to be eight pages), it's more just a preparation for college research. but we turned in the first draft, and this would actually be a good place for feedback if anyone wants to read it.  

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

---

by: jncca @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 00:30:13 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I am a Junior

 But I still had to write a research paper. I did mine on how Proposition 20 affects voter's rights in California.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....

17, CA-06,  

---

by: Alibguy @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 22:50:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

This map is a ridiculous GOP Gerrymander

This is so IOKIYAR I can hardly stand it anymore.

Republicans are allowed by the public to create districts like the second, a blatant dem vote sink, when there could easily be two AA dem districts by connecting Baton Rouge to the delta counties up north.  Yet in AR we chicken out and don't extend the 4th to Fayetteville!!!  

I'll tell you what, these people (the GOP) prove to be more and more dangerous by the day.  Why can't people give the GOP more hell about that constant barrage of atrocious things that they do! (Ok, broad statement, whatever.)

And the 5th is ridiculous as well!! Putting Washington county, something that should obviously be in the 1st, in the 5th!  The only district that makes any sense is the
3rd, what I shall deem Louisianna's "little Texas", as its economy and lifestyle are eerily similar to that of the denizens of Texas's SE coast.

--------

Oh btw, why join a dating site when you could just join ssp!!  As a 22 y/o gay man who just graduated from UT, I am always so surprised at the amount of other younger gay men around here.  How Awesome!  

---

by: badwolf @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 22:22:01 PM UTC

?

IOKIYAR  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

---

by: wmayes @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 22:32:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

IOKIYAR

It's OK If You're A Republican.  You know, how to some it's OK for Republicans to gerrymander but Democrats have to be the nonpartisan, "good government" redistricters, or how Barack Obama's deficit spending is a grave national crisis but George W. Bush's deficits were fine, or at least unimportant (not to get off topic here, but you get the idea.)

35, Male, Democrat, MD-8

---

by: MikeinMD @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 22:59:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I grew up in the 3rd

It's not little Texas. There's a lot of oil, but the area is seriously Cajun, and Cajun culture is the big thing in the district. I'd say about twenty% of that district, as they drew it, speaks Cajun French. It's also a hotbed for zydeco, fishing, and contains the Atchafalaya basin. The economy is similar to SE TX, but the lifestyle and culture is totally different.

The Arkansas map was horrible. I think it hurts Democrats while doing nothing to help them.

---

by: jwaalk @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 22:36:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not that bad

It doesn't hurt and it helps Dems who want to run in AR-01.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 01:11:34 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hate to break it to you

But many of the uglier parts (Ex. LA-05) first showed up in Democratic plans.  

---

by: GOPVOTER @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 23:34:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wonder what the map would look like if Hunt Downer had won LA-3

He'd have a lot more friends willing to go to bad for him than Landry does.  Wonder who'd be the odd man in that case.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

---

by: Darth Jeff @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 22:48:58 PM UTC

Boustany

It probably woulda been more of a 50-50 district between them two than the 70-30 it is now

---

by: GOPVOTER @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 23:35:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oh and

Terrebone-Lafourche would be in the 3rd because they wouldn't put him in Scalise's district  

---

by: GOPVOTER @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 23:36:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wonder what the map would look like if Hunt Downer had won LA-3

He'd have a lot more friends willing to go up to bat for him than Landry does.  Wonder who'd be the odd man in that case.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

---

by: Darth Jeff @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 22:50:00 PM UTC

So let's see

LA-01 (Steve Scalise, possibly versus Jeff Landry) is considered by far the most GOP district of the state, and it now reaches around and grabs a ton of coastal area from Jeff Landry's old LA-03...but by population the center is still north of New Orleans in Saint Tammany's Parish, right?  So Landry would get destroyed by Scalise here, I assume.

LA-02 (Cedric Richmond) expands out from New Orleans to Baton Rouge to maintain 63% African-American status, as many expected.

LA-03 (Charles Boustany, possibly versus Jeff Landry) is now physically centered in the southwest coastal districts and is mostly Boustany's old LA-07 territory, so again Landry is screwed despite his home in New Iberia now being in the eastern edge of this district.

LA-04 (John Fleming) is probably the least changed district.  Still the left half of Northern LA.

LA-05 (Rodney Alexander) now has a weird tail that goes out to Washington Parish.  A couple points more AA but nothing to get too excited about.

LA-06 (Bill Cassidy) drops the black areas of Baton Rouge (lowering its AA percentage from 33% to 24% and probably making it unwinnable for us) and makes up for it by making a curve around LA-02 to grab some more of the old LA-03, further demolishing Landry's district.

---

by: skaje @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 23:04:46 PM UTC

Landry

Lives in New Iberia, in the 3rd

---

by: GOPVOTER @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 23:36:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Republican gerrymander

I know many of you are saying this is a Republican gerrymander. The truth is: its not. The original map, by Republican Erich Ponti, was much nicer than this. This plan has been amended by Democrats in the Senate and House many times. That 5th district? Democrats made it. If Republicans really wanted to do a gerrymander, they would keep LA-02 out of Baton Rouge and make it an even 50.0% VAP black. I made one like that. That district would likely have less than 50%  black voter registration. In a year with low black turnout, a Republican could win it if they unified the white vote and took about 30% of the black vote. Then it would be a 6-0 map. Democrats wanted LA-02 in Baton Rouge to make it safe. If we didn't go to Baton Rouge, there would be accusations that we were diluting minority voting strength. It had to do that  

---

by: GOPVOTER @ Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 23:55:08 PM UTC

A 50% + black (or even minority) VAP district

that includes most of New Orleans is in no real danger of falling to a Republican. And the VRA doesn't require a certain win. Just requires an equal opportunity to elect. Even in Louisiana, that does not require an absolute black majority (though in most places outside of the south, the break-even point is at about 44% black VAP, even in the 1990s).

---

by: andgarden @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 00:06:49 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I know,

I'm quite astounded by that statement really. And his post are usually quite sensible. Not only is 30% an absurdly large percentage of the black vote for a Republican, but a district containing New Orleans has a considerable population of white liberals, meaning a moderately liberal, untainted black politician like Richmond should be able to expect 40% of the NOLA proper white vote, if not more.

The current LA-02 is actually closer to 50% black, if not plurality white, and yet that didn't even come close to saving Cao in a normal turnout election, (even in the 2010 environment). It's a shame to see him making excuses for what is truly an all out Republican gerrymander that leaves no other seats even remotely competitive for Democrats in the near future.  

---

by: jwaalk @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 00:30:35 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I would want

a compact 45% black New Orleans district and a 50%+ black delta/Baton district.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

---

by: duffman @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 03:12:27 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

White liberals

Most of those are put into Scalise's district. I'm not saying its likely it would happen but under the right circumstances it could. Someone like House Speaker Jim Tucker could do it in a midterm year with lower black turnout.  

---

by: GOPVOTER @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 05:22:59 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

?

There scenario is as possible as a Democrat winning LA-5 or LA-6 in a good year, it just doesn't strike me as possible. What kind of candidate could the Republicans run against Richmond who could win in a 56% to 59% Obama district? At the same time splitting Baton Rouge would not be worth the gains brought by a 50% Black LA-2.

---

by: IdahoSocialist @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 00:23:47 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Given the quality of candidates

That often come out of primaries in Minority-Majority districts, its not hard to see the GOP picking up such a seat intermittently. A Black Democrat could win a 53% BVAP seat in Mississippi. There is no way Bennie Thompson could in a bad year.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

---

by: BenjaminDisraeli @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 01:01:41 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Don't Cherry Pick

For every Bill Jefferson there is a Mazie Hirono, and for every Charles Rangel there is a Steve Cohen. Clyburn? Butterfield? etc. There are good guys.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

---

by: wmayes @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 01:11:59 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It just doesn't work like that

That's an overestimation of how the strong the GOP actually is, as we saw with GA-2, Keown got rather close, but he still fell short. Even in bad Democratic years, Republicans would only get close, but not win outright. And it's not as if they could hold it past one cycle.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

---

by: DrPhillips @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 02:44:55 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

So are

the only for sure maps so far AR and LA? or has IA decided their's yet too?

19, Male, Conservative, NC-06 (SC-04 college)  

---

by: aggou @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 00:43:18 AM UTC

AR and LA are in the books

Iowa is expected to vote on theirs this week, and it is expected to pass by wide margins in both chambers, and be signed into law by early next week. If this doesn't happen, it'd be shocking. Having a commission draw the lines is not a bad thing, and the districts actually look pretty neat and orderly.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

---

by: OGGoldy @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 00:46:45 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

.

Indiana's will probably pass as well. So there are four states who have released maps that are basically assured of passage:

Arkansas
Indiana
Iowa
Louisiana

The seat count is basically:

Arkansas:
SSPitizens are split on the seat count between 1-3 and 2-2. Let's call it 1-2-1.

Indiana:
SSPitizens are united in their belief that this is 2-6-1.

Iowa:
A split in judgment again. Some thing 2-2, some think 3-1. Lets call it 2-1-1.

Louisiana:
This is quite clearly 1-5.

Total seat count so far:
6-15-3 (D-R-Swing)

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

---

by: wmayes @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 01:08:26 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

*

*think

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

---

by: wmayes @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 01:12:48 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Indiana map looks more like

2-5-2 to me.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 01:14:16 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Optimistic?

I think that is a tad bit optimistic. The general feeling in the Indiana map thread was 2-6-1.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

---

by: wmayes @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 01:21:52 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The bloody 8th

No incumbent (of either party) should ever get comfortable in IN-8

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

---

by: OGGoldy @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 01:25:57 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Indiana's 8th

was not made safe GOP...it is actually a single percent more Democratic than before.  It still leans GOP but it has changed hands quite a few times in the past, it is simply a very competitive region and the GOP couldn't make it particularly safe for them while also accomplishing their goal of making IN-09 safe GOP.  Just too many blue dog Democrats in the region, they had to go somewhere.

So the map is truthfully 2-5-2.  We will struggle to protect Donnelly, but the GOP has to watch out for Buschon if he faces a strong Democrat like Ellsworth.

---

by: skaje @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 01:49:55 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

...

But it still requires a good candidate in a good year.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

---

by: wmayes @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 02:26:24 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

agree

The new IN2 and IN8 can definitely go Dem in a good year. I think Young should be able to hold the new IN9 even in a good Dem year. I think Burton would lose the new IN5 to any electable Dem in 2012, but any electable Reep should be able to hold it. Unlike IN2 and IN8, IN5 is ancestrally Republican.

41, Ind, CA-05

---

by: sacman701 @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 01:26:40 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

.

The problem is that we're using qualifiers like "in a good year". I'm thinking neutral year.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

---

by: wmayes @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 01:33:23 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

IN-05 was surprising

goes from 40-60 Obama-McCain to 46.5-53.5 Obama-McCain.  That's a surprisingly big shift and I wonder if the Indiana GOP may have gotten too clever for their own good in dumping Democrats into his district.  Historically, IN-05 is solid GOP (Gore only got 30% in this district) but I think it may be softening...Burton probably isn't ready for a serious challenge.

---

by: skaje @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 01:54:04 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Vermont

is historically Republican. Times change.

---

by: thematt523 @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 02:14:58 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The number of Democratic U.S. Senators from Vermont

one - Patrick Leahy

In the entire history of the state, only a single Democrat has served in the United States Senate.

Only two Democrats have been elected to the House since the creation of the Republican party in the 1850s: William Meyer and Peter Welch. (one seat was reliably dem in the 2nd party system).  

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

---

by: Marcus @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 17:58:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

And yes

I agree, the new AR map is 1-2-1, but that could change depending on candidate recruitment and quality.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 01:21:10 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The day isn't over! We got new maps . . . FROM TEXAS!

Texas State House (150 members)

http://gis1.tlc.state.tx.us/

Click Select Plans, then Base Plan, then choose Plan H113. Off the Kuff has a good summary for Harris: http://offthekuff.com/wp/?p=36208
Texas Tribune includes everything: http://www.texastribune.org/te...

If this is out of line for this diary, I apologize. I thought it would be relevant since it is still map related. I will repost this in the digest, if out of like here, mods, delete this comment!

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

---

by: trowaman @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 01:44:09 AM UTC

My Comments

I made my comments about this map at Kuffner's post.  Unfortunately, they are still in moderation so you can't see them yet.  In summary though, I predicted the major counties would have the following number of Democrats: Harris 12, Tarrant 3, Bexar 7, Travis 5, and Dallas 6.  In this map, I see reasons for pessimism in Harris but optimism in Dallas.

---

by: blank @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 05:37:14 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

.

So that is 33 Democratic seats?

Plus these:

Valley: 8 Dems (6 urban seats plus HD31 and HD43).
Laredo/Border: 3 Dems
El Paso: 4 Dems

I'm including Pena's valley seat simply because he won't last after switching to Republican.

Which gives Democrats 48 safe seats. That includes one gain (from Pena). We currently have 49 seats, so where did the other two seats go?

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

---

by: wmayes @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 05:57:06 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ah

23 and 23 are Democratic (Port Arthur and Galveston).

50 seats.

HD27 looks to be more Democratic.

51 seats.

I'm pessimistic about Democratic potential from this map, but it does look like we've been given two new seats.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

---

by: wmayes @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 06:01:11 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

2/3rds

Is probably hard to sustain long-term. But its hard to get members to vote for their own elimination as well. I wasn't sure if the GOP would go for a safe 90-60 map, or go for broke.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

---

by: BenjaminDisraeli @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 06:12:44 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

How is it overall in your view?

Does it give Dems room to grow back over 60 again?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 06:20:16 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Maybe

Depending on candidate quality and year, there are some places to play offense. I'd say that this map maxes us out at about 70 in a very good year, but in a typical year we won't get more than 60.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

---

by: wmayes @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 06:36:43 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

In the Austin area

freshman Paul Workman (R) looks like he is locked in, in exchange for making Donna Howard (D) safe.

District 45, which flipped D->R, is still competitive.  I think in 2012 it's reasonably likely to flip back.

District 17, currently Republican, becomes a bit more Democratic... looks like it could be competitive over the next decade

---

by: rmpatrick @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 06:56:51 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I was wondering about 17

That was Dem until 2008. I was wondering if it was an improvement or not.

I like the 45 as well, I'm hoping Rose starts back up on a return trip. I'm looking forward to cracking Travis county, see if it is a safe 5Dem-1 GOP county.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

---

by: trowaman @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 07:02:46 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

17

... Yeah, right. It may be an improvement, but that doesn't mean we'll actually be competitive there anymore.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

---

by: wmayes @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 07:08:26 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

If you use 2008 results

and combine vote State House Rep. vote totals using Rose v. Young in Caldwell county and Kleinschmidt v. Dippel in Bastrop and Lee counties, the democrat wins by 111 votes.

the new 17 has Gonzalez and Dewitt added, in which 2008 had the Republicans running unopposed, but they do swing the vote totals in the Republican direction by probably 4,000 votes.  whether that can become competitive over the next decade or not, I don't know.  I do know that the new District 17 voted for Cornyn over Noriega by about 5,000 less votes than the old one.

---

by: rmpatrick @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 07:28:35 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well, that shuts me up

Touché, salesman. Looks like new 17 is worse, not better.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

---

by: trowaman @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 07:32:00 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

14

Looks like a place where we might be able to compete. It contracts a bit due to growth, and I wouldn't be surprised if the AA% jumped because of it.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

---

by: wmayes @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 07:12:33 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

56

Same story, but with minorities. Trade A&M with Baylor. I'd say this map puts 14 on the radar though. It'd take a really special Aggie to win it, though. People like my relative are not interested in being represented by a democrat.

I'm going to challenge your take on 17. It's not coming our way anyway soon, but it only has 2 of its original counties. It stays out of Seguin and picks up Caldwell which used to be in Patrick Rose's 45. I think a candidate like Rose could win it. If he comes back to 45, if he wanted to have a hand in recruitment and find someone like himself to run and campaign with in the district next door, I think it could be won. It's not likely, but I think it's just as much in play as 14.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

---

by: trowaman @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 07:27:19 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Got the numbers

12 (Connector): 35.3% O 64.6% W
14 (College Station) 38.5% O 64.2% W
56 (Waco) 36.1% O 67.2% W

In other words, none of these 3 are happening unless a college decides to take over the city and not be super conservative as these two universities are.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

---

by: trowaman @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 08:11:22 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

45

I agree. Simply due to Texas State that district will always be swingish with Dem chances greater during Presidential years.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

---

by: wmayes @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 07:06:26 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I've run half the seats in DRM

Here's what I got so far.

Tarrant: 7GOP-3DEM-1 Map. The new dem seat is where Paula Pierson's district was. The toss up is the Zedler/Turner seat. It leans GOP, but if Turner wants back, he could win.

Dallas: A 6-8 map gone wrong. 6 dems are secured, 2 GOP are secured. There are 6 GOP seats where Obama got over 45%. This is not going to hold over the decade. (sweet . . .)

Collin/Rockwall: 5 GOP-0 Dem is secured

Denton: 4 GOP-0 Dem for now, there are two seats Obama got over 40% in, this could be 2-2 by decade's end.

Galveston: Looks like the decided to leave Eiland alone. It's a 1-0-1 map, but it'll stay 1-1.

Fort Bend: 3-1 looks secure. Possibility it could turn into 1-1-2 by decade's end, but unlikely.

Corpus: A 0-0-2 map currently held by 2 Republicans. They're throwing one of their own to the wolves to makes Corpus a solid 1-1.

Bexar (San Antonio): Gaining a seat and the GOP is getting it. Going 7-3-1 with the one being 117 which flipped GOP in the last election, could easily flip back.

District 45, Hayes: Obama finished in the high 40s here, Patrick Rose could come back in this seat if he wants too.

Besides that, only other Dem seats I got so far is Beaumont's, 3 in Brownsville are and District 35 at 44.5% Obama (Rural, just south of San Antonio,54% Hispanic). This map could have been worse, MUCH worse. I'm taking it.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

---

by: trowaman @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 06:30:45 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

In other words

I got 23 SOLID* Dems so far while missing Harris, Travis, Williamson, El Paso and 3/4 of the Valley.

*I'm counting the Galveston toss up seat as secure so long as Eiland is running for re-election.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

---

by: trowaman @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 06:34:37 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes

Kinda like IN, this could have been much worse.  How much worse, by the way?  Like a map where they take advantage of allowed population deviance?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 06:35:46 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

.

It couldn't be much worse than this.

This map is awful. Yes, there are places to pick up seats, but that is mostly a function of the fact that Dems in TX have hit their rock bottom total floor not because this map is nice. Speaking of Central TX (the only area I know well), the Bexar map sucks. If Dems were drawing it it would easily be 9-1. In Travis it would easily be 6-0. WillCo would easily get a Dem district. What the hell is with 149?  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

---

by: wmayes @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 06:57:51 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

---

by: wmayes @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 07:36:51 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hmm.

Purple: South Austin hippies would dominate this district.
Red: East Austin minority communities.
Green: It wouldn't be dominated exactly by Democrats, but the lakeside Republican leaning areas (which aren't exactly strongholds for them) would be overwhelmed by the social liberals in Bouldin and Travis Heights and the rest of inner south Austin.
Yellow: enough said.
Blue: Similar to green, except with the Northwest Hills and areas around Lake Austin blvd.
Teal: Pflugerville is rapidly becoming a Hispanic area. Besides this, the Wells Branch area is normally very Democratic.

6-0. Easily.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

---

by: wmayes @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 07:40:39 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Looks a lot like the current map

I question if green would hold, even though I have no doubt it would be lean dem at least and blue as likely dem.

Also, stupid Austin hippies, smelling funny and such! Do you really want to let them pick a state rep? Fort Worth already elects Lon Burnam*. :-P

Dumber GOP thinking they could have made a 3-3 map out of Travis county.

*Perfect example for non-Texans as to why Hispanics are not "a force", they don't show up. Fort Worth has a Hispanic majority seat. Instead, this district elects and re-elects a hippy who runs the local peace center and wears Hawaiian shirts every day a suit is not required. Great guy, but he shouldn't be holding this seat.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

---

by: trowaman @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 07:52:55 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Opposite

I'd sooner expect blue to fall than green.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

---

by: wmayes @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 07:54:26 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes

I typed that correctly, the new area that green picks up is so Democratic that it would overwhelm Workman. Howard loses alot of her most Democratic area in Rundberg.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

---

by: wmayes @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 07:59:37 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Worse as in making sure minorities are the only dems

Galveston says everything you need to know. It could easily have been made 2 GOP - 0 dems. I am SHOCKED they did not do that. Dallas could explode in their face, so good. Tarrant is giving Dems 1 new rep in a non minority district, and San Antonio was not drawn in crazy ways for a 6-4 map or something. That's how I mean, it could have been worse.

The best map drawing by the GOP is in Collin County this far though. That 5-0 is pretty awesome from a gerrymandering point of view.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

---

by: trowaman @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 06:59:50 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

?

Collin county is the largest Republican county in the state. It doesn't matter how they draw the lines, the county isn't going to elect a Democrat in any district.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

---

by: wmayes @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 07:01:50 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Here's why I'm giving it props

Obama got 39% in the county and the best Obama district is 40.3%. That is impressive to me.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

---

by: trowaman @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 07:04:26 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Eiland

Why are you shocked that the preserved Eiland? He's constantly chosen as one of Texas's best lawmakers and routinely works across party lines. Republicans like him.

Not only that, but his district is a Dem vote sink. Splitting it would be a dummymander for the Republicans.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

---

by: wmayes @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 07:04:23 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Cause I'm from Galveston originally

After watching every dem get wiped out at the county level the general consensus among Galveston Dems was Eiland was getting a nice dose of Friendswood (my hometown).

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

---

by: trowaman @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 07:05:49 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Definitely

Agree with everything above, except for Fort Bend. Surely you aren't saying that three of those seats are going to be solid Democratic? 2 of them are held by Republicans right now (26 and 28). Though 28 changes drastically, I'd say that Fort Bend is 1-3, easily and immediately.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

---

by: wmayes @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 06:41:40 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

D'oh, yes

It's a 3 GOP, 1 Dem map that could turn 1-1-2. My bad.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

---

by: trowaman @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 06:49:55 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm Also

Skeptical about your view on San Antonio.

The GOP currently has three Bexar seats: 117, 121, 122.
121 and 122 are safe for them and 117 is probably coming back to us over the next few cycles.

You say that the GOP is getting a new Bexar seat? Bexar county has ten seats now and has ten seats again in this plan. This map is 7-2-1 in Bexar.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

---

by: wmayes @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 06:47:36 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I am wrong again

Status quo in Bexar. Stays a 7Dem-3 GOP delegation in a 7 Dem-2 GOP-1 toss up map. Good catch.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

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by: trowaman @ Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 06:54:49 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Formerly of Shreveport, this is about as good as it will get

They tried that second black district back when they had 7 seats in 1991 and every plan they tried got overturned in court.

From the "butt ugly" so-called "Mark of Zorro" district-started in Shreveport went across the northern border (a thin band of border precincts-but including Grambling), down the Mississippi, over to Alexandria and Lafayette to get their black neighborhoods and then over to Baton Rouge.

Then there was the oblong football that stretched diagonally from Shreveport to Baton Rouge.

Finally, something approaching the current (prior to this map) set up was passed and it was accepted.

If you go for a second VRA district and you think that this map looks bad, SON, you ain't seen nothing yet.

54, male, Libertarian/Conservative, TX-24 (formerly LA-04)

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by: drblock @ Thu Apr 21, 2011 at 04:28:19 AM UTC