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Racial Composition Change by CD

by: Crisitunity

Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 9:06 AM EDT


With the Census Bureau having released 2010 data for all 435 congressional districts, I started slicing 'n' dicing the data last week, looking at population change in the fastest growing and shrinking districts. Today, as promised, we're moving on to how the racial composition of the congressional districts has changed.

You might remember that I did this same project a year and a half ago based on 2008 estimated data, and that was a good template for today's work, as the lists haven't changed that much. Where the lists have changed, it seems to be more likely because of strange sample issues in 2008 (like the rapid appearance and subsequent disappearance of a big Asian population in NY-06) than rapid changes in the trend over the last two years. As with last time, the most remarkable chart is the one showing biggest declines, percentage-wise in districts' non-Hispanic white populations. (Because this is the key chart, I'm extending this list to 25 places.) As you'll no doubt notice, many of these districts also had some of the biggest moves in the Democratic direction over the years from 2000 to 2008.

DistrictRep.2000
white
2000
total
2000
%
2010
white
2010
total
2010
%
%
change
2000
election
2008
election
GA-07Woodall (R)476,346630,51175.5486,673903,19153.9- 21.731/6939/60
GA-13Scott (D)295,107629,40346.9202,053784,44525.8- 21.157/4371/28
TX-24Marchant (R)415,842651,13763.9368,645792,31946.5- 17.332/6844/55
TX-22Olson (R)394,651651,65760.6405,645910,87744.5- 16.033/6741/58
FL-19Deutch (D)494,890638,50377.5456,060736,41961.9- 15.573/2765/34
CA-25McKeon (R)363,792638,76857.0352,189844,32041.7- 15.242/5649/48
FL-20Wasserman Schultz (D)426,891639,79566.7358,470691,72751.8- 14.969/3163/36
TX-07Culberson (R)439,217651,68267.4411,276780,61152.7- 14.731/6941/58
NV-03Heck (R)459,756665,34569.1568,3431,043,85554.4- 14.749/4855/43
TX-10McCaul (R)431,992651,52366.3513,811981,36752.4- 13.934/6744/55
IL-03Lipinski (D)445,179653,29268.1361,581663,38154.5- 13.658/4064/35
CA-11McNerney (D)408,785639,62563.9400,825796,75350.3- 13.645/5354/44
VA-10Wolf (R)495,611643,71477.0554,054869,43763.7- 13.341/5653/46
TX-02Poe (R)418,476,651,60564.2399,454782,37551.1- 13.237/6340/60
FL-08Webster (R)447,266639,02670.0459,529805,60857.0- 13.046/5453/47
CA-41Lewis (R)405,790639,93563.4404,103797,13350.7- 12.741/5644/54
FL-12Ross (R)461,239640,09672.1500,066842,19959.4- 12.745/5549/50
CA-10Garamendi (D)417,008,638,23865.3377,698714,75052.8- 12.555/4165/33
CA-22McCarthy (R)426,192638,51466.7432,482797,08454.3- 12.533/6438/60
MD-05Hoyer (D)400,668662,20360.5368,667767,36948.0- 12.457/4165/33
NV-01Berkley (D)342,987666,44251.5322,853820,13439.4- 12.156/4164/34
CA-13Stark (D)244,693638,70838.3174,998665,31826.3- 12.067/3074/24
VA-11Connelly (D)430,091643,58266.8434,526792,09554.9- 12.045/5257/42
CA-03Lungren (R)474,940639,37474.3488,421783,31762.4- 11.941/5549/49
FL-15Posey (R)497,676639,13377.9539,194813,57066.3- 11.646/5448/51

Districts appearing in the 2010 data's top 25 that weren't present in 2008 are VA-10, TX-02, FL-08, CA-41, and NV-01; while the other four are driven mostly by Latino growth, the growth in VA-10 (in Washington DC suburbs, more and more centered on once-exurban, now-suburban Loudoun County) is more Asian. These five replace TX-05, AZ-03, TX-06, TX-03, and NJ-07.

This presents a very different picture than the districts ordered according to the actual raw number of white residents lost. That list starts with GA-13 in first, which fell from 295,107 white residents in 2000 to 202,053 in 2010. This is the southern tier of Atlanta's suburbs and exurbs, which is increasingly becoming a magnet for both Atlanta African-Americans moving outward and northern blacks moving south - in turn driving a lot of white flight, much of which seems to be rearranging itself north of Atlanta, especially in the 9th. The fast-growing 13th is unusual on this list, though; most of the remaining top 10 losers are districts where the overall population is stagnant or going down: MI-12, IL-03, PA-14, OH-10, IN-07, IL-02, CA-13, FL-20, and MO-01. As you'll see in upcoming charts, blacks are replacing whites in MI-12, Hispanics are replacing whites in IL-03 and FL-20, Asians are replacing whites in CA-13, while in PA-14, OH-10, IN-07, IL-02, and MO-01, everyone is leaving, with whites are leaving the fastest.

Much, much more over the flip...

Crisitunity :: Racial Composition Change by CD
Here are the districts with the biggest gains among non-Hispanic whites:

DistrictRep.2000
white
2000
total
2000
%
2010
white
2010
total
2010
%
%
change
2000
election
2008
election
IL-07Davis (D)178,144653,52127.3204,780638,10532.14.883/1688/12
NY-15Rangel (D)106,664654,35516.3133,839639,87320.94.687/793/6
NY-11Clarke (D)140,595654,13421.5161,819632,40825.64.183/991/9
NY-12Velazquez (D)150,673653,34623.1180,232672,35826.83.777/1586/13
GA-05Lewis (D)216,674629,43834.4232,507630,46236.92.473/2779/20
NY-10Towns (D)106,746665,66816.0124,232677,72118.32.388/891/9
MI-14Conyers (D)213,120662,46832.2187,516550,46534.11.981/1886/14
CA-33Bass (D)126,488638,65519.8137,720637,12221.61.883/1487/12
CA-31Becerra (D)62,177639,2489.769,321611,33611.31.677/1980/18
SC-06Clyburn (D)269,215669,36240.2280,474682,41041.10.958/4064/35

While you might expect the biggest white gains to be in the exurbs, that's not the case at all (as suburbs and even exurbs are often becoming a first stopping-point for new immigrants). Instead, most of this list shows regentrification at work, especially in the parts of the outer boroughs of New York City currently under invasion by hipster armies (and also new additions CA-31 and CA-33, evidence of the very recent momentum in the revival of downtown Los Angeles). Similarly, Atlanta is becoming whiter even as its suburbs become much more African-American (which we got a preview of with last year's mayoral race, where a white candidate nearly won). The odd district out is Detroit-based MI-14, where whites seem to be fleeing at a slower rate than everyone else. Only five additional districts had a percentage gain in white residents, for a total of 15 of all 435: LA-02, HI-02, CA-29, PA-02, and IL-04. (HI-02, NY-14, and CA-29 fall off the top 10 list from 2008, replaced by CA-33, CA-31, and SC-06.)

If you're wondering which districts had the biggest numeric gains of white residents, rather than changes in the white percentage, here's where the exurbs come in; the list looks a lot like the list of the biggest gainers altogether, or at least the whiter districts among the biggest gainers. AZ-06 in the Phoenix suburbs (with a large Mormon core in Mesa) had the biggest gain, from 490,359 to 673,881, followed by FL-05, AZ-02, ID-01, UT-03, GA-09, CO-06, SC-01, TX-26, and TX-31.

Now let's turn to African-American populations:

DistrictRep.2000
black
2000
total
2000
%
2010
black
2010
total
2010
%
%
change
2000
election
2008
election
GA-13Scott (D)255,455629,40340.6439,119784,44556.015.457/4371/28
GA-07Woodall (R)72,962630,51111.6196,955903,19121.810.231/6939/60
MI-12Levin (D)77,403662,55911.7133,766636,60121.09.361/3765/33
IL-02Jackson (D)403,522654,07861.7414,414602,75868.87.183/1790/10
MD-05Hoyer (D)198,420662,20330.0281,862767,63936.76.857/4165/33
FL-19Deutch (D)37,821638,5035.991,391736,41912.46.573/2765/34
MD-02Ruppersberger (D)178,860661,94527.0232,194700,89333.16.157/4160/38
MO-01Clay (D)307,715621,49749.5324,711587,06955.35.872/2680/19
MI-11McCotter (R)23,456662,5053.564,239695,8889.25.747/5154/45
GA-03Westmoreland (R)119,766630,05219.0198,089817,24724.25.233/6735/64

The list of the top 10 districts in terms of percentage gains among African-Americans is the same 10 as 2008, although with a few changes in the order. The story continues to be African-Americans moving from the cities to the suburbs, especially in the Atlanta area but also Detroit (with Detroiters moving north into the 12th), Chicago (with the metaphorical South Side now starting to extend south well below the city limits and even below I-80), and Washington DC (with Prince George's County now largely black outside the Beltway, into the 5th, as well as inside in MD-04).

The top 10 gainers by raw numbers has many of the same districts, although also some of the suburban districts that gained a lot of everybody (like TX-22 and NC-09). It starts with GA-13 (from 439K to 629K), followed by GA-07, MD-05, GA-03, TX-22, NC-09, MI-12, FL-19, MD-02, and TX-24.

DistrictRep.2000
black
2000
total
2000
%
2010
black
2010
total
2010
%
%
change
2000
election
2008
election
IL-07Davis (D)402,714653,52161.6322,730638,10550.6- 11.083/1688/12
GA-05Lewis (D)350,940629,43855.8313,302630,46249.7- 6.173/2779/20
LA-02Richmond (D)407,138639,04863.7287,077493,35258.2- 5.576/2274/25
CA-09Lee (D)164,903639,42625.8131,574648,76620.3- 5.579/1388/10
CA-35Waters (D)216,467638,85133.9188,365662,41328.4- 5.482/1784/14
CA-33Bass (D)189,855638,65529.7156,406637,12224.5- 5.283/1487/12
NY-11Clarke (D)379,017654,13457.9335,828632,40853.1- 4.883/991/9
PA-02Fattah (D)392,293647,35060.6355,849630,27756.5- 4.187/1290/10
NY-15Rangel (D)198,915654,35530.4169,460639,87326.5- 3.987/793/6
TX-18Jackson-Lee (D)260,850651,78940.0260,585720,99136.1- 3.972/2877/22

The list of districts with the biggest percentage losses among African-Americans mostly parallels the list of districts with the biggest white gains, where regentrification is changing the complexion (and that it includes the catastrophic regentrification of New Orleans). It also includes several traditionally black districts where the blacks are being replaced mostly by Hispanics: CA-09, CA-35, and TX-18. IL-01 and MD-04 have fallen off the list from 2008, replaced by PA-02 and TX-18.

The top 10 by raw numbers of losses among African-Americans is led (perhaps no surprise) by LA-02, which went from 407K to 287K, followed by MI-13, IL-07, MI-14, IL-01, NY-11, GA-05, PA-02, CA-33, CA-09. Interestingly, because New Orleans in general lost so many people, the 2nd still significantly trails IL-07 in terms of the percentage loss.

Now let's look at Asian-American populations:

DistrictRep.2000
Asian
2000
total
2000
%
2010
Asian
2010
total
2010
%
%
change
2000
election
2008
election
NY-05Ackerman (D)159,491654,25324.4218,275670,13032.38.267/3063/36
CA-13Stark (D)179,681638,70828.1239,434665,31836.07.967/3074/24
CA-15Honda (D)187,198639,09029.3246,832677,60536.47.160/3668/30
CA-48Campbell (R)80,095638,84812.5137,094727,83318.86.340/5849/49
NJ-12Holt (D)58,748647,2539.1104,996701,88115.05.956/4058/41
VA-10Wolf (R)41,846643,7146.5107,583869,43712.45.941/5653/46
WA-08Reichert (R)50,745655,0297.7108,807810,75413.45.749/4757/42
CA-11McNerney (D)55,895639,6258.7114,217796,75314.35.645/5354/44
CA-14Eshoo (D)102,430639,95316.0140,789653,93521.55.562/3473/25
CA-03Lungren (R)36,970639,3745.884,384783,31710.85.041/5549/49

The Asian gains, percentagewise, are concentrated in the Bay Area, although the #1 gainer is NY-05, where the majority of the population is in NE Queens. Flushing is now thoroughly Asian, and that's starting to spill over into Bayside (of Archie Bunker and Jerky Boys fame). That's followed by the East Bay's CA-13, the first non-Hawaiian district to have an Asian plurality. The rest of the list is mostly affluent suburban areas which are starting to become light-blue at the presidential level even as they keep Republicans in the House; will declining white populations in these districts be enough to push them over the edge?

NY-06, NJ-07, and TX-22 have fallen off the list from 2008, replaced by NJ-12, WA-08, and CA-03. If you're curious about the top 10 by raw numbers gain, it mostly overlaps the above list, although with some of the all-purpose growth engines (like NV-03) on there too: NV-03, VA-10, TX-22, CA-13, CA-15, NY-05, CA-11, WA-08, CA-48, and VA-11.

Only twelve districts have experienced any drops in the Asian population by percentage, and most of the drops are small, so there's not much need for a chart for them; HI-02 (28.0% to 24.9%) had the most significant change, partly because of an influx of white retirees but more so because the big rise in "Two or more" as a common choice in Hawaii. That's followed mostly by districts with rapidly growing Latino populations:  HI-01, CA-20, CA-18, IL-02, TX-29, FL-17, CA-51, TX-30, CA-35, NY-16, and TX-16. Only six districts had drops in raw numbers of Asians: IL-02, MI-13, TX-29, FL-17, IL-05, and IL-01.

Finally, let's look at Hispanics:

DistrictRep.2000
Hispanic
2000
total
2000
%
2010
Hispanic
2010
total
2010
%
%
change
2000
election
2008
election
IL-03Lipinski (D)139,268653,29221.3225,298663,38134.012.658/4064/35
CA-25McKeon (R)174,193638,76827.3330,711844,32039.211.942/5649/48
CA-41Lewis (R)150,076639,93523.5277,907797,13334.911.441/5644/54
CA-43Baca (D)371,501637,76458.3510,693735,58169.411.264/3468/30
CA-22McCarthy (R)133,571638,51420.9255,209797,08432.011.133/6438/60
CA-18Cardoza (D)268,586639,00442.0381,039723,60752.710.653/4459/39
FL-20Wasserman Schultz (D)132,575639,79520.7216,352691,72731.210.669/3163/36
TX-10McCaul (R)122,894651,52318.9282,641981,36728.89.934/6744/55
TX-29Green (D)430,980651,40566.2514,861677,03276.09.957/4362/38
TX-02Poe (R)82,578651,60512.7176,196782,37522.59.837/6340/60

As in 2008, the biggest gainer is IL-03, covering Chicago's Southwest Side. (I'm truly not sure if people are moving from the depopulating, closer-in IL-04 to the slightly more spacious 3rd, or if the 3rd is becoming the destination of choice for new émigrés; maybe Chicagoans in the comments might shed some insight into that.) And in second place continues to be CA-25, a Republican-held district linking LA suburbs like Santa Clarita with high desert outposts like Lancaster. Interestingly, the list is pretty evenly divided by Democratic-held districts that already were substantially Hispanic and just got much more so (like TX-29 and CA-43), and Republican-held suburban districts where voting patterns haven't caught up with the Hispanic population (and given the number of kids and non-citizens among those numbers, where it'll take many more years for that catching up to happen).

There's been a lot of churn among districts since 2008, perhaps a result of the difficulty of estimating Hispanic populations: districts falling off the top 10 list since 2008 are TX-32, TX-05, AZ-04, and CA-52. These have been replaced by CA-43, CA-18, TX-10, and TX-02.

The top 10 in raw numbers gain doesn't correlate directly with districts that had biggest white percentage drops or Hispanic percentage gains. Instead, the list pretty thoroughly overlaps with the list of the top population gainers overall; while the Hispanic percentage went upwards in all of those districts, many of these districts were ones with a large Hispanic share already: case in point, the biggest gainer, FL-25 in Miami's westernmost suburbs (which went from 398,986 to 577,998). That's followed by CA-45 (which I certainly would have expected to see in the top 10 Hispanic percentage changes, but where the share increased "only" by 7.2%), TX-28, TX-10, CA-25, AZ-07, TX-15, CA-44, TX-23, and CA-43.

One remarkable thing about Hispanic growth is that it's present almost everywhere. Only six districts experienced any drops in the Hispanic percentage whatsoever, all in urban districts where regentrification is occurring: starting with NY-12 (48.7% to 44.6%), followed by CA-31, NY-15, CA-29, IL-04, and NY-14. Those same six districts were the only ones to report drops in raw numbers, either: IL-04 had the biggest loss (from 486,839 to 442,018), CA-31, NY-12, NY-15, CA-29, and NY-14.

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I am struck by how small the increases in white % are
I don't mean to impugn your analysis, but do increases of 5 percent--at absolute most, over ten years--really constitute "invasions"?  How much does something like that change a district's politics?  GA-05 went from 34% white to 36% white, was that really the kind of tipping point that could nearly swing a mayor's race?

Thanks for crunching the numbers, though--this is fascinating stuff.

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)


Yes, it can...
GA-05 went from 34% white to 36% white, was that really the kind of tipping point that could nearly swing a mayor's race?

Especially if it's concentrated in certain areas, like The City of Atlanta, and it fundamentally changes the fabric of the inner city. While it definitely looks unlikely that Republicans are flocking into Atlanta or into other inner city areas (instead, the reverse continues as "white flight" is helping to keep certain exurban areas in GOP hands), the new residents moving in may want different Democrats than the ones long time residents have become accustomed to.

While the demographic changes in Atlanta are nowhere near as extreme as what's been happening in New Orleans (especially since Hurricane Katrina), the city is certainly changing as more "Creative Class" folks arrive with their own ideas on urban living.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
I'm not sure how much the GA-05 change could deviate from the change in Atlanta
They're not quite coterminous, but pretty close.  Since, as usual, I am on my phone (gottta get a new laptop one of these days) I can't check Atlanta census tract by census tract, but still, I'm skeptical of the impact of a 34%-36% aggregate change.  Of course, that might belie changes at the neighborhood level that happen to cancel out.  

Another thing--how do we know the % increase reflects an influx of hipster/creative types  (or the extent it does) when it's coupled with an absolute decline?  Maybe white residents just left the city (slightly) less?  I don't doubt there's a creative class influx, but I would like more evidence of its impact, both on the overall demographics and on the consequent politics.

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)


[ Parent ]
The increase is mainly white liberals
It could effect dynamics as far primaries and local elections go, but the more partisan dynamics would be unaffected.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
This post brings up an interesting point about VRA districts in Texas
that I have been thinking about for a while.  Could there be a radical change in the composition of the members of the house delegation from Houston?

Sheila Jackson-Lee's district, and central houston in general, is less-and-less dominated by large, centrally located clusters of AA neighborhoods.  Plus, Al Green's district is minority-majority, but with a 36% AA plurarity.  Yes, you see that correctly, a 36% AA plurality.

Would the GOP in the texas state house possibly try to combine these two dems into one district, have TX-8 (far north houston suburbs, sapphire red) swing into Greenspoint (dem suburb represented by SJL) and have Ron Paul swing up into parts of Missouri City (Al Green represents this other dem suburb) and finally have TX-7 (Culberson) swing into acres homes/W. 34th street (also represented by SJL) to neuter these dems.  These three districts would change from something like R+15 to R+10 (TX-7 might go to R+5), nothing special, but would pit Al Green and SJL in a new mega-dem district.

This could be how, technically, the GOP could make the new districts 4-0, by combining even more dems into deep-blue seats in Houston, while still creating one or two new VRA districts in Dallas and the Valley.  You could try to combine canseco and gonzales into one district from central San. An. throughout the far-west valley, but you would put Lamar Smith and whatever new TX-thirtywhatever district into R+3/4 territory, something a Dem could definitely win.


There are a lot of interesting questions about TX.
It's the only large state I've even tried to take a crack at in DRA, and the enormous amount of Hispanic growth EVERYWHERE is an interesting variable. It is now possible, for example, to draw a Rio Grande district for Cuellar (El Paso - Laredo) that is 95% HISPANIC. That is insane.

I can see that sort of plurality black Dem mega district becoming reality, but the lines would be super-ugly, and I don't think they'd throw Culberson under the bus to do it - R +5 is easily winnable by a Blue Dog in a good Dem year. On the other hand, I have no problem with potentially getting rid of SJL - she's long been an embarrassment to Democrats everywhere.

The TX GOP might be stupid enough to try to make all 4 of the new seats Republican - this IS the TX GOP we're talking about here - but they do so at their own peril. At least one, probably two or three, is going to have to be a Hispanic vote sink.  


[ Parent ]
TX GOP certainly might be...
But The RNCC may not. It's been clear their national redistricting roadmap this year is more about incumbent protection and less about screwing over existing Dems. They don't want to repeat the mistakes that turned out horribly for them in 2006 and 2008, so perhaps they'll lean on the TX GOP not to dummymander the map to death (like the PA GOP & OH GOP did in 2001)?

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
WRONG!!!
Archie Bunker was NOT supposed to be from Bayside.  He was supposed to be from the Astoria/Sunnyside area of western Queens -- a more lower middle class area.  

I always thought Glendale
But both would've been in the "Archie Bunker district" of Geraldine Ferraro

[ Parent ]
The evidence is contradictory, apparently
According to the Queens about.com site, the physical house that the show used for establishing shots was in Glendale. It also claims that the show's producer had Corona in mind as the neighborhood Bunker lived in. It also passes along a claim that the show was inspired by a real family that lived in Jackson Heights, although this is dubious, since there's a British sitcom that's usually credited as the inspiration for All in the Family.

Wikipedia and several other sources I won't link to place the show in Astoria, but without citation.

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.


[ Parent ]
I do remember
an episode where he gave his address to someone, and distinctly remember him saying "Astoria, Queens."

Astoria and Glendale are pretty similar anyway, so just northwest Queens would probably be accurate. The Bunkers probably would have hightailed it to Jersey or followed Cousin Maude out to cheaper parts of Westchester soon anyway, as it's hard to find high concentrations of WASPs there anymore.

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)


[ Parent ]
The house in the credits is definitely in Glendale
they probably just shot it there and called it Astoria.  

[ Parent ]
yeah definitely wasn't Corona
even in the 1970s.  

[ Parent ]
I am
sorry if this is a stupid question, but all of these districts have stayed the same over the years, no? If the lines changed slightly in some of these areas, wouldn't that account for the differences?

What's really going to be interesting is to see how the population growth adjusts as these people become second generation and third generation residents. If non-whites keep reproducing at the same rate as they are now reproducing and new immigration keeps up, we've only seen the beginning of an explosion in absolute numbers.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


.
I'm assuming that mid-decade redistricting in Georgia and Texas is accounted for here. All of the other districts are the same as they were in the 2002 election.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
interesting
those two S Fla districts became less blue as they filled up with Hispanics. Is this due more to the new Hispanics being mostly conservative Cubans, or to the whites reacting better to Lieberman than to Obama?

41, Ind, CA-05

It's the Jewish effect
Look at all the South Florida, NYC, North Jersey, and Jersey Shore districts, and (I'm willing to bet) MD-03 as well - all performed better for Gore than Obama.

Cubans are actually becoming more moderate with time.

21, Male, Democrat, MD-02 (home/registered), MD-05 (college)


[ Parent ]
Which specific ones are you referring to?


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I think
primarily it's because of Jewish senior citizens (the 19th has the highest percentage of 65+ residents of any district in the nation) more comfortable with Gore/Lieberman than Obama, yes. Cubans are increasingly moving into the 20th, so I think that's probably also a factor, though much less of one (since there's also a lot of growth among non-Cuban Hispanics in the Miami suburbs). The 20th, interestingly, is not a particularly old district, at least not by Florida standards.

[ Parent ]
Maybe I'm Captain Obvious . . ..
but the critical political question over the next three decades will be whether second and third generation Hispanics become more GOP-friendly (because of rising incomes and/or assimilation) like the Irish, Germans and Italians before them or whether the Hispanic population remains strongly pro-Dem in partisan preference -- like African-Americans and Jews.  

Hard to say.
In a very broad sense, either they will change and go with that party suits them, or the parties will change to get the voters. A combination of both is certainly possible, if not definite, but if it is definite, it seems much more likely that it'll be the Democrats who change slightly rather than the Republicans. Or maybe it's simply because the Democrats are much more willing, it seems, to accept people that aren't ideologues and extremists, whereas the Republicans are the opposite. Indeed, the strategy of the Republicans seems to be betting that the Republicans will come around to them. That's not the most insane notion ever, but there's a world of difference between a responsible, small(er) government conservative, like Mitch Daniels, and someone like Michele Bachmann, who seems hellbent on burning the damn thing down.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
We really
Need to stop talking about the "Latino" vote.  Poli sci research consistently shows that there is much less pan-Latino identity than most Anglos suggest.  Cubans (obviously) are much more Republican than Mexican-Americans, and Mexican-Americans are more Republican than Puerto Ricans.  It is like lumping together someone from Vietnam and someone from Iran as "Asian."  Drives me nuts.

[ Parent ]
Everything I've read
Suggests that three classes suffice for Hispanics in terms of voting patterns:

Cubans - heavily Republican
Mexican - not as heavily Democrat
South American - heavily Democrat

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.


[ Parent ]
This is my view too
And its why I don't think the impending bluening of texas is an eventuality.  I really think Mexicans in texas by the 2nd/3rd generation will be texans more than they will be Hispanics/Mexicans, and Texans are heavily Republican.  It might lead to a more mdoerate TX GOP, but it will still be the GOP running the show there.

[ Parent ]
...
When I said not as heavily democratic, I meant more like

Cubans 80-20
Mexican 30-70
South 20-80

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.


[ Parent ]
I understand
And if the "Hispanic" vote in Texas is 25% for the GOP, it will remain a GOP-dominated state for a long time to come.

[ Parent ]
Not necessarily.
In 2008, the racial breakdown was 63/13/20/2/2 for whites, blacks, Hispanics, Asians, and others. Had Obama received 75 percent of the Hispanic vote and everything else stayed the same (assuming that he received 65 percent of the Asian and other vote; CNN doesn't provide such figures), he'd have 46.72 percent of the vote.

But imagine if the racial breakdown became 60/13/23/2/2. He'd then be up to 48.19 percent. Were he to get to 30 percent of the white vote (over time, probably a lot easier than it looks), he'd be at 50.59 percent. Were he to get 35 percent of the white vote, he'd be up to 53.59 percent.

Of course, this is all just speculation, but getting 75 percent of the Hispanic vote and not getting killed as badly as they do now amongst white voters in the state is great news for Democrats and probably awful news for Republicans.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
So if...
If:

1.  Hispanic vote % increases +3% to the sole detriment of whites...and
2.  Hispanic vote goes from 63-35 Dem to 75-25 Dem...and
3.  the white vote for some reason goes from 26-73 to 30-70

Obama gets to a tie.  

I think you're basically proving my point because:

1.  The increase in hispanic vote % will impact black vote and white vote about the same, and given you're citing 2008 numbers, I'd say the baseline skews overly favorabel to the black vote in terms of proportion (13%) and results (98% D ????)

2.  There is still little proof the so-called Hispanic vote is trending Dem in Texas.

3.  There's no evidence of the white vote trending Dem in Texas.

The white population in texas grew 19.6% from 2000 to 2010, the black population grew 23.9% and the Hispanic/Latino vote grew 42%.  Texas isn't like most states, all groups are growing relatively fast.  

Add to this the fact that Texas state office races are held in non-presidential years where minority turnout is decreased and I think that only further strengthens the GOP's hold on the state level offices.  Senate races held in non-presidential years would be harder to crack.  

Do I think by 2030 Dems might get close to half of texas congressman, maybe, but that's about as optimistic as I would be.  There's no evidence other than conjecture about the future that can be offered up.  I just don't think every 2nd generation Mexican immigrant is going to become a solid Dem vote in all elections.



[ Parent ]
You misunderstand me.
My point was to show that you weren't exactly right when you said that the Republicans could win only 25 percent of the Hispanic vote and dominated. I think I did that.

They could win, but it'd be very close if the Democrats were regularly getting 75 percent of the Hispanic vote and the Hispanic portion of the electorate kept growing to reflect their increasing numbers in the overall portion of the population. Remember that non-Hispanic whites are already below 50 percent in the population as a whole and are overrepresented when it comes to the electorate. And if the Democrats were to see some small increases in support from white voters, combined with the dominance of Hispanics, it's very likely they win the state regularly. Maybe they won't win white voters so easily, but then I don't think I have unrealistic totals.

Basically, the idea of the Democrats winning 75 percent of the Hispanic vote in Texas as the population gets bigger and votes more often terrifies the Republicans, and for good reason. They know it's an uphill battle to overcome those numbers. The politically smart ones are trying to do something about it.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
"Non-Hispanic White"
Is a meaningless word outside of a an arbitrary census term. No one identifies themselves as "non-Hispanic" white, and voting is based on self-identity, not what the government thinks someone is. 53% of Hispanics said that they were "white only" in race, and if they tell exit pollsters the same thing, they will not show up as Hispanics.

While there is some evidence that there is lower Hispanic turnout in off-years, the idea that there is some giant legion of potential Democratic voters is a myth. That 38% Hispanic percentage of the population is voting. Its just that a good portion of them are telling exit pollsters that they are "white".

I mean a bunch of republicans in Texas right now are sitting in seats in the legislature that are under 40% non-Hispanic white.  

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent


[ Parent ]
The vast majority of Hispanics I've met would never call themselves white
they don't identify as such and they usually have darker skin. It's hard to imagine Mexicans in Texas being that different appearance-wise from Mexicans in Chicago.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
I think you're off by about five-ten points
on all three -- you have Cuban-Americans as too Republican and Mexican/South American voters as too Democrat.

When you control for socio-economic status, Latino voters are only about 10 points more Democratic than white voters, although some of that is doubtless due to the generally higher economic status of Cubans. The same is true if you control for ideology, for urban/suburban/rural residence, etc.


[ Parent ]
Race/Ethnicity
When you control for socioeconomic status the difference completely disappears. Race/ethnicity simply is not a reliable predictor of vote intention outside of their socioeconomic status.

Even being black does not matter when you control for socioeconomic status. Everyone knows this... However, it is much easier to get ahold of and use data about race and ethnicity than it is for economic stratas. So the fact that lots of people use race/ethnicity as a proxy for vote intentions is legitimate.

For what its worth, I think you're wrong. If anything, I have all groups too Republican. Hispanics nationwide voted for Obama 75-25. For Kerry it was less, obviously, but we're running on a new baseline after Arizona's bill and Texas's new education plan.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.


[ Parent ]
Where are you getting that from?
Just curious. The CNN exit poll, admittedly not the world's most reliable source, has it at 67-31.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
.
Ah well. Rough memory? Obviously doesn't suffice.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
no
Middle class blacks do not vote like middle class whites. Most blacks are middle class, not poor. They vote overwhelmingly for Dems in all cases.  

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
...
Most blacks are lower middle class. Most whites are upper middle class. There are definitely distinctions between the two socioeconomic groups.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
no
From CNN's 2008 exit poll:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20...

Whites under 50k favored McCain 51-47.
Whites over 50k favored McCain 56-43.
Nonwhites under 50k favored Obama 86-13.
Nonwhites over 50k favored Obama 75-22.

Within the nonwhite group, blacks are much more heavily Dem than other nonwhites. It's true that the lower middle class favors Dems a bit more than the upper middle, but this is a much smaller margin than between blacks and whites controlling for income.

41, Ind, CA-05


[ Parent ]
...
2008 is a distortion because Obama was black...

I direct you to Conway's Political Participation in the United States, Abramson et al's Change and Continuity, and Jacobson's The Politics of Congressional Elections amongst many, many, many others.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.


[ Parent ]
Hmm
Perhaps I should have said when controlling for both socioeconomic status and religion.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
no
Here is the 2004 exit poll.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20...

Whites went 58-41 for Bush, blacks 88-11 for Kerry, a 47 point difference.

In 2008 whites went 55-43 for McCain, blacks 95-4 for Obama, a 51 point difference--about the same as in 2004.

The 2004 poll did not have a poll by race and income, but with the black-white split so similar in both years I'd imagine it would have looked the same as in 2008.  

41, Ind, CA-05


[ Parent ]
Someone else also countered this.
But look at Jews, for example.  Solidly upper-middle class as a group, and far more Democratic than other white upper-middle class groups.  

Culture matters.  


[ Parent ]
Yup
Indians too, I believe they're one of the best-educated and highest-earning ethnic minorities in the country, and their voting habits are similar to Jews.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
...
This has to do with Religion which is a factor that cannot be neutralized even when controlling for socioeconomic factors.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
Actually, that isn't true
There is very little variance in African American voting patterns regardless of how you slice and dice it.  80 percent of black conservatives vote Democrat -- and there are more than you would think!  Same is true of urban/suburban/rural and income.

"Hispanics" are a whole different ballgame.


[ Parent ]
Most people
seem to think it's going to become more friendly to the Democrats, even if it's still pretty friendly to the Republicans. Maybe a slightly better version of Ohio, perhaps? Overall, though, those who suggest it's going to go blue and never go back are the exception. Yet, even if it becomes a fifty-fifty shot state for the Democrats, that's a huge shift in their direction.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Texas
I think Georgia is a much better comparison than Ohio is. In both TX and GA the native white population has been trending red for a long time, and this may continue. Obama did worse than Kerry in much of east TX and rural GA. At the same time, the big metro areas in both states have been filling up with northerners and Hispanics and are  turning purple. Go here

http://elections.nytimes.com/2...

and mouse over metro Atlanta. Obama won 3 outer counties where Kerry got smoked, and made it respectable in Cobb and Gwinnett. The TX metro areas mostly swung 7-9 points instead of 10-15, so they aren't trending quite as fast. (Bush was off the ballot, but Obama didn't contest TX the way he did GA either) GA appears to be a few years behind VA and NC. TX should move in the same direction over time.  

41, Ind, CA-05


[ Parent ]
The future of GA will be interesting
I quite hoenstly have no ide ahow to predict GA.  Atlanta has become such a sprawlign fiasco that I don't know where it ends and gwinnett County begins...but i know it takes about 4 hours to get from Atlanta to gwinnett in rush hour.

I don't know how much GA is filling up with northerners compared to say NC or VA, which I think are ahead of the curve in that way.  I really don't know what the draw is to GA either, as VA is obviosuly driven by jobs related to the govt and NC has RTP and what's left of their banking industry.  

What industries are drawing people to GA?  And why isn't Atlanta's huge college poplulation enough to fill that economy?  Is GA drawing more black northerners than NC or VA (and if so, is it due to the ral Housewives of Atlanta)?  LOL.  So many questions.


[ Parent ]
A lot of it depends on what the GOP does
With guys like Bush running their party, they seemed to be on the path towards becoming competitive with Latinos.  With the current bunch....eh I dunno.

[ Parent ]
That classification
misses Puerto Ricans, Dominicans, and Central Americans, who are probably the three biggest Hispanic groups in the Northeast. Having gone to a middle school and a high school that were around 1/3 Hispanic in the Northeast, I think I only met one Mexican guy, one Cuban guy (actually, half-Cuban, half-Dominican), and maybe one or two Colombian kids. Everyone else fell into the first three categories.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Yeah geographically it probably means different things...
...to different people.

I don't think Cnetral Americans are prevalent in most places outside of urban environments, but I'm sure in NYC Puerto Ricans and Domincans outnumber Mexicans by a pretty huge margin, even in 2011.

On a more technical note, its Domincans & Haitians who are the true Hispanics, right?  Coming from Hispaniola I think those are the only 2.  Or does the word "Hispanic" draw its origin from somewhere else.


[ Parent ]
.
Hispanic comes from Hispania, which is simply another term for the Iberian peninsula.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
So then there are like only 100K real Hispanics in the US
LOL.

Yup, our nomenclature will be very confusing in eyars to come.


[ Parent ]
It might not be technically correct, but it's what people go by.
for that matter, I very rarely hear Hispanic people refer to themselves as such, they usually say they're Spanish.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Agreed
Puerto Ricans are very proud of their heritage, and from what I remember from my college roommate, Dominicans and haitians are the best of friends.  

And the Ecuadorian guy who lived down the hall said the Ecuadorians had a long-ago dispute about land with (I think) Columbia so they didn't like each other.

I miss college.


[ Parent ]
.
Other Islanders and Central Americans are generally lumped in with South America.


21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
First I've heard of that
Especially since they are actually considered North America. But given how they are the dominant group in the Northeast, I can't imagine many of them would appreciate being lumped in with South Americans.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
.
I can't imagine they'd appreciate it either, but they're generally more Democratic than Mexicans.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
Speaking of House races....
PPP poll shows the US souring on the GOP badly.  Let's hope this isn't some outlier.
http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


When will we get an open thread?
Anyway, as far as that poll, it's really strange how Independents are turning on Republicans and on President Obama, at least in some other polls, at the same time. It's almost as if they aren't sure what the hell they want.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
We're mad as hell and not going to take it any more
Independents are like the drunk guy/girl at the bar who is beyond trashed.  Try and tell him/her to stop drinking, or stop yelling (or what not), and watch how s/he reacts.  S/he'll turn on everyone around them and everyone is wrong about everything except him or her.

Anti-incumbency 101.  

And always remember, its probably not the independents who swung hard GOP in 2010, that just sat out due to lack of motivation.  Its not like Indies swarmed to polls and pushed so many GOP legislators into office at all levels, its just they and many Dems didn't vote at all.


[ Parent ]
Isn't it a little bit of both?
Perhaps in some cases, we'd still have losses, but smaller ones.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I guess I was responding to your point
About Indies turning on Obama and Republicans.  i think most of the McCain indies are still with the GOP, and the Obama Indies sat home and didn't vote (as opposed to actively voting for Scott Walker, Rick Scott, John Kasich, etc).  

So I don't really feel like Indies are turning on the GOP< the Indies never really sided with the GOP.  The indies turning on Obama really aren't turnign on him, they're just unhappy but we;ll see when the GOP has its defined alternative how they feel about Obama then.


[ Parent ]
Do you account
For mid-decade redistricting in Texas and Georgia?  I only had time to skim, so forgive me if I missed this.

Yes
I probably should have mentioned that somewhere in there. The 2010 and 2000 data both reflect the current configurations.

[ Parent ]
no need to draw a second Hispanic district in Chicago
IL-3 is turning into one on its own.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

Isn't Lancaster in CA-22?
Also, can a CA expert tell me what's up with CA-41? Its demographic changes seem to match the rest of the Inland Empire, but its partisan changes most certainly do not.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


Great Analysis - Kevin McCarthy Question
As stated elsewhere up thread, I wanted to expand on this just a bit. There are 3 California Republicans that have a lot of Hispanics in their district and they are growing at an incredibly fast rate. For example, Kevin McCarthy is in leadership and went from 21% to 32% Hispanic in just 10 years. While its hard to say what his district will turn out can he continue to lead his party that is so anti-immigration and frankly borders on xenophobic in a district where 40% of the population is Hispanic as it may happen in the not too distant future? While now they clearly don't vote as high as the whites in his district who I assume are very conservative but as those numbers grow it is going to be tougher for people like him especially with him being in leadership. If the Hispanic vote share gets to 30% of the district, which may happen in the not-too distant future and they are 70% Democratic which is plausible in California all the Democrat would need is 42% of the white vote for a majority.

While that is an oversimplified example many districts are becoming much less white to the point that only 40% of the white vote may be needed for victory for the Democrat. Now we just need to work on turning them out!!

Second up-thread others have wondered what future generations of Hispanics will vote. I can speak only for myself but I am first generation (Mexican) and I have 7 first cousins that are of voting age. 5 of us are solid democrats and 2 of us are apathetic. If future numbers continue in that direction it is very, very bad news for the GOP. Over simplified example I know but I rarely see young conservatives whose parents were not conservatives as well. My kids better not turn out that way!!!

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  


I don't know about this sentence
"...but I rarely see young conservatives whose parents were not conservatives as well"

This assumes an oddity, that Dems raise Dems or apathetic or indie and Conservatives raise Conservatives only.  While it might eb the dream model on this site, it hardly holds true in any real way.  

I mean the born-again evangelical movement isn't even that old and certainly brought about a huge new wave of Ultra conservatives, and not all of them were parented by conservatives.

Not to mention that a lot of people who work their way up from humble beginnings and becoem succesful might focus more on the GOP's storng issues (taxes, security, etc) and switch views from their parents.


[ Parent ]
To clarify...
Maybe what I should have said is "young Hispanic conservatives". I don't know what the data is but if both of your parents are reliable Democrats I think that the chances of you becoming a hardcore Republican are a lot less then you becoming a reliable Democrat or left-leaning independent. My overall point is that as the Hispanic population grows (it is becoming a reliably Democratic vote when they do vote) I don't see it becoming a lot more conservative, especially with the Mexican-American vote. People like Kevin McCarthy in his district as configured will increasingly have to hope that the Latino vote share doesn't drastically increase or he is in trouble. I can't see it dipping below the 60-65% range anytime soon especially given the GOP's harsh rhetoric.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

[ Parent ]
That makes more sense
I know so many white "kids of Dems" (KoD's) that are hard-core republican for numerous reasons.

I guess my thinking is that if the Hispanic vote stays under 75% for Dems Texas is just impenetrable in my lifetime, and I'm healthy and 33.  I just think the idea that hispanics are going to vote in these huge portions is lost on me, but then again I live in Philly where the black turnout is tragic in most elections.  

I just don't see why hispanics will evolve into such a high turnout segment in such a short amount of time.  I mean blacks have always had the power to alter elections and have not always done so, so I guess I dont see Hispanics as saving the day.  The sheer growth in overall population won't turn into a huge swath of voters, unless someone knows something I don't.

I also don't thinkt eh Souther white vote in sattes like TX is maxed out at 63% for the GOP either, further complicating the challenge.


[ Parent ]
.
You're right. The Southern white vote in Texas probably isn't maxed out at around 60%. The problem is that Southern whites aren't a growing group. The growth in the white population has alot to do with inmigration from places, like California, who have completely different voting habits.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
We're probably nearing the floor of the white vote.
Counties in rural Texas that used to vote Dem are already starting to vote 90-10 Republican or so, they're going to run into a wall pretty soon. Texas has Austin, and I'm guessing whites in places like Dallas and Houston have enough liberals that they'll never start voting 90-10, maybe 70-30 at worst. I'm no Texas expert but in a state with so many cities, it's hard to imagine that the white vote would resemble Mississippi or Alabama more than South Carolina or Georgia.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
But its a consistent vote
Not as flighty as minority vote, and shows up in all election years for all offices.  Its one more reason as to what makes Texas so hard to crack.

I also always wonder that if whites flee California, is it liberal whites leaving for job opportunity or conservative whites fed up by California's taxes and big government.

Using the California domestic migration argument, we should see Idaho and Utah running blue-r by now too, but there's never an easy way to tell.  I think people just say "the Mormons offset Californians" and move on but I'm never quite sure I can accept that.


[ Parent ]
Well, I don't think anyone's denying
that if Texas does turn purple, it'll first be in a presidential year with an aggressive turnout operation.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Well
A lot of it is conservatives fleeing California - "big government" and "taxes are actually code words that mean "minorities," or maybe more accurately "conservative white men no longer control everything."

We're seeing it in Maryland now too - the state is so diverse that conservatives don't even want to live in conservative counties in Maryland anymore, so the rate of growth for Baltimore exurbs fell this decade, and the state lost white residents for the second decade in a row.

Certain conservative whites need to feel a certain amount of control in order to be comfortable; I think it has to do with white privilege, but that's another debate for another time.

21, Male, Democrat, MD-02 (home/registered), MD-05 (college)


[ Parent ]
Hmm, I agree.
I know plenty of young liberals whose parents were conservative, but I can't think of a single young conservative who's parents were liberal.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male

[ Parent ]
Yeah
I know some who had apathetic parents, but not liberal parents.

21, Male, Democrat, MD-02 (home/registered), MD-05 (college)

[ Parent ]
response
One of the big problems so far as CA-21 and 22 go with the PL94-171 data is a lack of a count of citizen/non-citizens. I've seen validated estimates that up to 1/3 of hispanics in Kern County are not citizens due the large need for unskilled labor in the ag sector.

After playing the the numbers it looks to me like if western Kern County (west of the crest  Sierra Nevada Mountains) is made its own district which it easily could be. By mid decade (2016ish) McCarthy would have serious problem getting re-elected as a republican. Over 60% of the population under 18 is hispanic in Kern County. In the short term, due the jungle primary I foresee a strong challenge to McCarthy from a non-Abernathy republican.

At this point having Kings County under VRA section 5 may actually help the republicans in California because it will either siphon (D) votes out of Metro Fresno or out of Metro Bakersfield.  Also, for those of you working on plans beware that there are 4 state prisons (Delano 1 + 2, Wasco & Techachapi) and a federal prison (Taft) in Kern county.  


[ Parent ]

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