My first stab at Congressional Redistricting in Florida (Part 2: Central Florida)

Tampa Bay Area

FL-5 (Rep. Richard Nugent, R-Spring Hill), Yellow

It now covers just 3 counties instead of all or parts of 8 counties in its current form (removed from Lake, Levy, Marion, Polk and Sumter counties), and is designed as an exurban Tampa seat.  It takes most of Citrus and Pasco counties (minus Port Richey and New Port Richey), plus all of Hernando County (Nugent’s political base, as he’s formerly the Sheriff there).  Safe Republican.  

FL-9 (Rep. Gus Bilirakis, R-Palm Harbor), Cyan

This district is minimally altered from its present form, except that it loses Clearwater and parts of western Pasco County.  It also exchanges some Tampa suburbs with FL-11 and FL-12.  Bilirakis’ home base of Palm Harbor and northern Pinellas County, however, is still here.  Safe Republican.

FL-10 (Rep. C.W. Bill Young, R-Indian Shores), Pink

It gains Clearwater from FL-9, and black parts of St. Peterspurg from FL-11; but loses Dunedin and parts of Palm Harbor to FL-9.  Still totally within Pinellas County, and is the most competitive district in the Tampa Bay area.  Lean Republican with Young, Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic in open seat scenario.



FL-11 (Rep. Kathy Castor, D-Tampa), Light Green

This is the most drastically altered district in the Tampa Bay area, as it is now confined within Hillsborough County.  It loses its arms into Manatee and Pinellas counties, and gains some more conservative suburbs to the east.  It has a lower black percentage but a higher Hispanic percentage than its previous form.  Still plurality white (and 52% white voting age population/VAP).  Castor should be fine if she survives her initial election in this district.  Leans Democratic.

Central Florida

FL-8 (Rep. Daniel Webster, R-Orlando), Lavender

This district is recast to become solely within metro Orlando (Removed from Lake and Marion counties), it also loses its Osceola County portion to FL-12.  However, it gained southeastern Seminole County (Altamonte Springs and Longwood etc.) and eastern Orange County from FL-24, plus bits of FL-3 and FL-7.   As it subsumes most of the conservative parts of Orange County with a slice of traditionally GOP Seminole County attached to it, Webster should be fine here, although the growth of Hispanic population could make the district more interesting towards the end of the decade.  Likely Republican.

FL-12 (Rep. Dennis Ross, R-Lakeland), Baby Blue

Polk County (formerly split with FL-5 and FL-15) is now entirely within this district.  It loses the Hillsborough County portion to FL-9 and FL-13.  It is less white and more Hispanic (about 22%) than its previous incarnation, thanks to the inclusion of parts of Kissimmee.  For now, Ross should be fine, but it seems likely that this district will undergo  demographic changes similar to FL-8 down the road.  Likely Republican.

FL-15 (Rep. Bill Posey, R-Rockledge), Orange

This district now contains all of Brevard County (previously split with FL-24) and most of rural, less Hispanic portions of Osceola County.  It is removed from staunchly GOP Indian River County and takes most of Okeechobee County that still has hints of local conservative Democratic heritage (but votes GOP in federal races).  Posey should be fine here.  Likely Republican.



FL-24 (Rep. Sandy Adams, R-Orlando), Deep Violet

This district now contains most of Seminole County (Oviedo and Sanford etc.) and virtually all of Volusia County, but removed from Brevard and Orange Counties.  Seminole’s GOP heritage should give it a GOP tilt, but a moderate Democrat from Volusia should be competitive here in neutral or Dem-friendly years.  Toss Up/Tilt-Republican.

FL-27 (NEW SEAT, Sky Blue)

The Democratic votes freed up from FL-3 and FL-8 are the basis of this plurality Hispanic (about 33% of VAP) district (plurality white in VAP at about 38%, with 22% black VAP).  It consists of downtown Orlando, black areas in western Orange County, Hispanic portions of east-central and southern Orange County, and the adjoining heavily Hispanic portions of Osceola county (Kissimmee and environs).  Should be a perfect district for State Reps. Darren Soto or Scott Randolph, both Orlando Democrats, if they want promotion to the Congress.  Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer is another solid candidate for this seat.  Finally, polarizing but wealthy former Rep. Alan Grayson may also want to run here if he wants to return to Congress.  A Puerto Rican Republican, however, can make this race competitive.  Lean Democratic.

My partisan count for these seats are 5R, 2D, 2 swing.

Overall partisan count so far are 10R, 3D, 2 swing.

Southwest Florida, Heartland and Heartlands seats (FL-13, 14, 16 and 26) up next.

31, Male, Independent, MS-02 (Hometown FL-19)

6 thoughts on “My first stab at Congressional Redistricting in Florida (Part 2: Central Florida)”

  1. that someone would create a democratic garrymander of Florida ignoring VRA restrictions.  I would like to see what a map would look like if the situationarises that dems ever control the leg, the Fair Districts ammendment is repealed, and the VRA ammendments don’t get renewed.

  2. I like the interest in FL. I kind of find your Stearns, Mica districts as abhorrent. They are too narrow and displace one of the fastest growing areas in Florida into about 5 different districts.

    I do approve of your Tampa and Orlando work for the most part. Are you from Florida?

  3. I think your FL27 is at least likely D if not safe D. The whole county is D+6 (Obama won it nearly 3-2) and you designed FL27 as a Dem sink within it.

Comments are closed.