Elijah Cummings' district can afford to take more Republican areas

Rather than going into Howard County, where the white voters tend to be moderately liberal, you get more bang for your buck by running Cummings's district into Carroll County, northern Baltimore County, and northern Harford County. This way, the extremely conservative whites get diluted in a black majority district (and let's face it: in Maryland, any black majority district is guaranteed to elect a Democrat, even if it goes down to 65% Obama), and the not-so-conservative whites in Howard can be used to strengthen your 7th district.

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by: gs @ Sun Apr 10, 2011 at 14:59:41 PM UTC

I'm curious why you decided the split the Eastern Shore

it's possible to keep the Eastern Shore intact and still make an Obama 53-54 district.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

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by: sapelcovits @ Sun Apr 10, 2011 at 15:24:16 PM UTC

Also

The state legislators from the Eastern Shore do not want the Eastern Shore split.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....

17, CA-06,  

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by: Alibguy @ Sun Apr 10, 2011 at 16:01:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Splitting the Shore

I thought splitting the shore was the best way to get 8 Democratic seats... I made another map with the shore intact with 2 toss-up seats, but the second seat (similar to MD-07 in above map) the numbers were too close to even that I thought a liberal from Montgomery County would have trouble winning in the general.

19,Democrat,MD-07(home),MD-02(High School),MD-07(college)

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by: bmoredem @ Sun Apr 10, 2011 at 20:14:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Silver Spring's map, posted below

offers a great example IMO of how it's possible to get 8-0 (or at least 7-0-1) with the Shore still intact. Of course, there are different ways of doing it past that (for instance, I find myself drawing MD-01 into Baltimore a lot rather than PGCo), but I don't think splitting the Shore is necessary per se.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

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by: sapelcovits @ Sun Apr 10, 2011 at 22:29:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

"Who would be unhappy with this map?"

Me, for one.  You put my dark blue hometown (in mid-Montgomery County) in a district with a bunch of deep red territory along the northern border of the state.  I know that MoCo and Frederick City are supposed to make the district blue, and probably would in most cases, but in a 2010 or 1994 type situation (not that I expect another soon, but you never know), and you may well have a lot of angry folks in the I-270 corridor stuck with a Tea Partier.

35, Male, Democrat, MD-8

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by: MikeinMD @ Sun Apr 10, 2011 at 17:12:14 PM UTC

Has there even been a historical case anywhere

Of voters actually registering their anger about gerrymandering at the polls? I just don't think it's possible.

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by: DavidNYC @ Sun Apr 10, 2011 at 19:21:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

^^

Probably not in the abstract (though that if that were to happen anywhere, it would probably be in the DC metro area.)  I was speaking of dissatisfaction with the ultimate electoral result.

My complaint about this map is that it spreads Democratic strength, particularly where I live, a bit too thin for my liking.  Too much slicing up of areas like Montgomery and Prince George's counties and appending them to the Republican parts of the state might, under a certain confluence of circumstances, end up placing lots of these Dems under hard-right GOP representation, at least for one term.

35, Male, Democrat, MD-8

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by: MikeinMD @ Sun Apr 10, 2011 at 19:36:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ah, that's fair

Politicians (usually those on the short end of the gerrymandering stick) like to complain that voters will be upset, etc., if they are in one district instead of another. Since few people even know who their elected officials are, and almost none know their district boundary lines, I'd be shocked if any normal voters ever got upset at being moved from one district to another. Perhaps on a very hyper-local level with immediate consequences - say, a school zone redistricting that moved your kids from one school to another school - I could see that happening. But not with traditional legislative remapping.

Obviously, "the ultimate result," as you say, is a rather different question.

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by: DavidNYC @ Sun Apr 10, 2011 at 20:52:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

this ugly map

makes the 6th 60% Obama


19,Democrat,MD-07(home),MD-02(High School),MD-07(college)

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by: bmoredem @ Sun Apr 10, 2011 at 21:06:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

!

19,Democrat,MD-07(home),MD-02(High School),MD-07(college)

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by: bmoredem @ Mon Apr 11, 2011 at 03:31:40 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

My favorite Maryland Map

Is still this one by Silver Spring.

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by: davybaby @ Sun Apr 10, 2011 at 18:26:14 PM UTC

My favorite too...

Silver Spring's map is definitely the most effective and the most compact by a mile. In that map I would think Howard County Ex. Ken Ulman would beat John Sarbanes in a primary, and I think Frank Kratovil would not win a primary... as much as the people on the shore would upset to be split, they may be more upset to be represented by a liberal from (probably) PG county... at least in a split map they are likely be represented by Frank Kratovil (Queen's Anne) and Steny Hoyer (lower Western Shore)... I think they would serve as better representation for the Shore in Congress than a PG Co. resident. Silver Spring's map is definitely the map I would like to see too... if I moved to west Baltimore I would still live in Elijah Cummings district :) ... but I can't tell if I live in 2 or 7 in the map.

19,Democrat,MD-07(home),MD-02(High School),MD-07(college)

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by: bmoredem @ Sun Apr 10, 2011 at 20:30:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Silver Spring's map

I like that one too.  Under SS's map, I'd be in District 6, which while extending north to take up much of Frederick County clearly has a majority of its population in Montgomery, ensuring it would still be Democratic even in a bad year.

I'm still not entirely sure that we can make a clear 8-0 map without spreading Dems a little too thin, risking losing several seats in a poor year (though they would probably be easily retrieveable two years hence).  It seems that a safer route might be 7-1, adding more Dems to an Eastern Shore based seat to elect Kratovil or another Democrat, keeping the current 6 Dem-held seats safe (while making them more compact if possible), at the price of one GOP vote sink probably taking in Western MD and the reddest Baltimore exurbs (sort of like the current 6th.)

35, Male, Democrat, MD-8

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by: MikeinMD @ Sun Apr 10, 2011 at 20:46:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sliver Spring's

Is the closest you I think you can get to a safe 8-0 map... the rest seem to have 6 safe and two competitive seats.

19,Democrat,MD-07(home),MD-02(High School),MD-07(college)

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by: bmoredem @ Sun Apr 10, 2011 at 20:53:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Is the closest you I think

Is the closest I think you can get to a safe 8-0 map... the rest seem to have 6 safe and two competitive seats.  

19,Democrat,MD-07(home),MD-02(High School),MD-07(college)

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by: bmoredem @ Sun Apr 10, 2011 at 20:54:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Silver Spring's Map

Kratovil is from PG County. His family was pretty active there (dad a judge, Steny a close family friend etc).

Also the "buzz" is that Ken Ulman is looking at things besides a congressional seat.

20 M MD-01

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by: mahimahi1414 @ Mon Apr 11, 2011 at 18:16:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Governor?

19,Democrat,MD-07(home),MD-02(High School),MD-07(college)

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by: bmoredem @ Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 05:57:41 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Silver Spring's map is incredible

The 8-0 Maryland has already been perfected at SSP.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

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by: duffman @ Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 16:55:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I like it.

It's kinda messy, but it works.  We aren't sure if they'll go whole hog, but we know for sure that Harris is going to be the primary target of MD Dems.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

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by: LookingOver @ Sun Apr 10, 2011 at 19:51:53 PM UTC

2016

If O'Malley wants to be president, he should go 8-0, I am sure people inside the party will be happy if he did

19,Democrat,MD-07(home),MD-02(High School),MD-07(college)

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by: bmoredem @ Sun Apr 10, 2011 at 20:32:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ehrlich-O'Malley 2010 Numbers

As we know, these district Democratic percentages are based on President Obama's 2008 numbers. What about Ehrlich-O'Malley 2010 numbers? Just guessing here, but Ehrlich probably won two or three of these districts. I'm just afraid the Democratic vote might be spread too thin. Maryland does have a recent history of electing moderate Republicans such as Connie Morella, Helen Delich-Bentley and Wayne Gilchrest. Therefore, it's quite possible we could see a rebirth of moderate Republicans by spreading Democratic votes way to thin. On the other hand, most of these newly crafted districts are likely going to have well establish Democratic vote getters except for the the first and seventh-both ripe for moderate GOPers. I hope my analysis is wrong . . .  

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by: 06STS @ Mon Apr 11, 2011 at 03:27:17 AM UTC

True

The districts are ripe for moderate GOPers, but there is very weak Republican bench in the state and few moderate Republicans anymore.  In the 1st Frank Kratovil will bring in votes from the other side.  In the other district, with such red areas in the north, I would bet a far right candidate wins the primary. I think former Frederick County State's Attorney Scott Rolle would make a good candidate; I don't think incumbent Roscoe Bartlett would win in the 7th (current 6th).

19,Democrat,MD-07(home),MD-02(High School),MD-07(college)

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by: bmoredem @ Mon Apr 11, 2011 at 03:55:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Morella, Bentleu & Gilchrist

Couldn't win a GOP primary these days.

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by: davybaby @ Mon Apr 11, 2011 at 05:23:25 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Moderate Republicans

I voted for Connie Morella in 2002 when she lost to Chris Van Hollen (the first MD congressional election I voted in, and the last time I voted for a Republican in a partisan race.)  She was something of a special case, with her personal appeal and being more liberal than many Democrats (including some Maryland Dems; at one time the nearby 6th District was represented by Beverly Byron, a Democrat who was well to Connie's right.)

But the GOP bench in MD, and particularly in once-competitive areas like the DC suburbs, has atrophied and districts that seem like they might elect a moderate Republican would likely stretch into rural areas where the primary electorate would be dominated by rightists who would nominate candidates lacking any crossover appeal.  Plus most new voters in places like Montgomery, PG, and Howard Counties have little memory of moderate Republicans; their image of the GOP is more likely a repellent mix of George W. Bush and Tea Partiers.  In Montgomery, for instance, even in the "wave" of 2010, the GOP failed to win, or even really be competitive for, a single local or state legislative office out of 46.

35, Male, Democrat, MD-8

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by: MikeinMD @ Mon Apr 11, 2011 at 15:50:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I never could stand Connie

Her "I'm independent--once they give me a pass" shtick made me want to barf. The classic example was on the impeachment of President Clinton. She waited until the last possible moment to announce her vote. Only when it became clear that it would pass without her vote did she find the "courage" to vote against it.

Sickening!

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by: davybaby @ Mon Apr 11, 2011 at 19:50:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

What is your opinion of Gilcrest, by the way?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

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by: LookingOver @ Mon Apr 11, 2011 at 22:02:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't have any strong feelings about him

Probably because I'm not in his district. I was pleased that he endorsed Kratovil over Harris in 2008.

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by: davybaby @ Mon Apr 11, 2011 at 23:20:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I dunno, I've made this point before

but I find it reprehensible to try and lock Republicans and conservatives totally out of representation in the state of Maryland; especially when there are a considerable number of hard-right areas along the northern end of the state.

My point has always been that having 6 safe Democratic seats, one swingish, Kratovil friendly seat, and one safe Republican seat, was, while still unfair to Republicans, the least grotesque and most ethical solution to take, (while continuing to be favorable to Democrats by helping them pick up a seat).

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by: jwaalk @ Mon Apr 11, 2011 at 13:27:37 PM UTC

as soon as the GOP ...

draws maps for TX, FL, GA, SC, NC, VA, TN, AL, LA, OH, IN, MI, KS, etc. that respect Democratic representation in those states, I'll be right on board with you ...

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by: silver spring @ Mon Apr 11, 2011 at 13:59:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]