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WI Recall: Dem Jennifer Shilling Announces Candidacy Against Kapanke

by: DavidNYC

Sat Apr 09, 2011 at 1:23 PM EDT


Great news:

State Rep. Jennifer Shilling (D-La Crosse) announced her candidacy Saturday to run in a potential recall election against incumbent state Sen. Dan Kapanke (R-La Crosse).

Volunteers collected 22,561 signatures in a bid to force the recall in the wake of Gov. Scott Walker's collective bargaining bill. Kapanke supported the measure.

For the election to be triggered, 15,588 signatures must be verified.

Shilling is about as strong a candidate as we could hope for - and it's a great opportunity for her, since she gets to take a free shot at Kapanke while keeping her seat. Hopefully this means we'll have other similarly strong recruits from the state House in our other recall efforts. Also, this is a pretty big vote of confidence by Shilling in the quality of the signatures, which I'm guessing will stand up to scrutiny. Game on!

P.S. Click here for Jennifer Shilling's Assembly campaign site, which I'm guessing will get updated soon.
DavidNYC :: WI Recall: Dem Jennifer Shilling Announces Candidacy Against Kapanke
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WI Recall: Dem Jennifer Shilling Announces Candidacy Against Kapanke | 108 comments
If she wins,
then there's a special election to fill her seat, correct?

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
Yeah, but her seat is pretty blue.
She won by a nearly 2-1 margin last fall.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
So, Democrats will
need to be polling 50 points ahead in order to have a shot to keep it, no?/snark, but not at you.

Seriously, good to hear.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
HEY!
My ears are burning! ;-)
[ Parent ]
When would this election take place?
Since there is a (small but not zero) chance I might be ending up in Wisconsin this summer...

überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets
Not clear yet
The GAB has a certain amount of time to verify the signatures (30 days, I think), but there could be legal challenges to them. And I think it's also possible the GAB will try to consolidate some of these recalls.
[ Parent ]
signatures
What are people's sense of how many signatures groups should aim to file in such situations? I would have thought that having time they'd want to continue a bit beyond 140% of the required signatures, just to be safe, given the threat of litigation.

Twitter.com/Taniel
[ Parent ]
.
The general guideline is to get 30% more than what is required.

So, in the way you've put it, 130% of the required amount.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
I think we'll be good
From what I understand, these sigs have been pre-scrubbed (which is just good standard practice), so they will probably be hard to attack.
[ Parent ]
LOL
For a moment there, I was still in the de-lurkers thread and thought you were talking about HTML scrubbing in the comment signatures!

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
GAB doesn't have a lot of discretion
The WI Constitution lays out the recall procedure in such a way as to make it as self-executing as possible to prevent the officials being recalled from impeding the process. (Thanks, Fightin' Bob!)

There's a month to review the signatures, and then the election is in six weeks. If there's a primary (ie more than one candidate from one party) the primary is at the six week mark and the general is four weeks later.

There might be court challenges, but given how big the cushion is, I'm sure there are enough valid signatures that the challenges would be fruitless, and the recall would proceed unabated.

The only discretion the GAB would be able to exercise, in order to set the recall date, would be to declare the signatures sufficient sooner or later. And I doubt they would care enough to do it. There is a special election in Kapanke's district, but it's in a few weeks, so it's too soon.

[ Parent ]
Isn't Dan Kapanke
in the most Democratic district out of what all the districts Republicans control in the state senate?  

19, Male, Conservative, NC-06 (SC-04 college)  
Yes.
It's either 62 or 63 percent Obama.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male
[ Parent ]
Yes (61-38 Obama)
and the PPP poll had voters supporting recalling him 52-44.

Twitter.com/Taniel
[ Parent ]
Didn't he even vote
against the bill when the Republicans finally voted on it? Guess it didn't really matter for him what happened.  

19, Male, Conservative, NC-06 (SC-04 college)  
[ Parent ]
Nope, he didn't
He was one of the 17 to vote for union-busting.  The lone "defector" was actually Dale Schultz, who isn't even up for a recall (I think he's from senate district 17, which, being an odd-numbered district, isn't yet eligible for recall).

When I heard that it was a 17-1 vote, i presumed Kapanke was the 1.  When I knew he wasn't,...well, nice knowing Assemblyman Kapanke.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Nope, that was Dale Schultz
He's the Cassandra of the Senate GOP.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Woops, 61-38 it is.
But yeah in other words, he's basically dead meat.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male
[ Parent ]
A map from last week
http://ericcompas.wordpress.co...

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
Yeah
Kloppenburg won every county in his district.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I like that map more than the other one that I've seen
The colors make much more sense, and bright-red and bright-blue actually mean strongly R and strongly D.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
That map can be misleading, though
Because it doesn't show population density. Sort of like looking at a map of US-Pres 2000 and thinking Bush must have killed it.
[ Parent ]
.
Looking at any map besides FDR and LBJ makes it look like the Republican killed it.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
Clinton makes it look like a tie, (imo)
here's the 92 election

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/F...

and the 96

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/F...

19, Male, Conservative, NC-06 (SC-04 college)  

[ Parent ]
Its werid seeing the appalachian south that blue heh. n/t


CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
I was thinking the same thing.
The whole south in general is quite amazing. Especially AR.  

19, Male, Conservative, NC-06 (SC-04 college)  
[ Parent ]
.
Only barely.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
I said it in the delurking thread and I'll say it again
between the favorable environment and not having to give up their day jobs, there's pretty much no reason for the strongest candidates on our bench in each district not to run.
That's a great point and thanks for pointing it out......
No reason not to get the strongest pol possible in each district!

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
I think you also made a good devil's advocate point, though
That some state reps could be looking at giving up nice safe seats from something swingier. Not Shilling, though - if she wins, Kapanke's seat ought to be a relatively easy hold for us.
[ Parent ]
One Caveat-Redistricting
If we are taking over seats like Olsen's and Darling's then it is likely that Dems are taking back the Senate.  Since the elections will occur in the summer and since redistricting cannot happen until the fall (because municipalities have to create the wards) it is then likely that we can force at least an incumbent protection plan, or face the courts which is a prospect I think neither side would want.  There are ways that many Senate districts in question can be made safer.  
[ Parent ]
Wait, why?
since redistricting cannot happen until the fall (because municipalities have to create the wards)

Why can't the Republicans in charge of the lege just ram through a map tomorrow?

[ Parent ]
Municipalities need to create wards
Well, if I am reading this timeline correctly:
http://www.wisdc.org/proxy.php...
before redistricting occurs, municipalities have to create wards and the ward database has to be created.  It seems as if that does not finish until the fall, so all the recall elections can take place before the leg actually draws the maps.  
[ Parent ]
Interesting
You are correct of course that the congressional & legislative redistricting comes after "Creation of Ward Database" on that timeline, but it's not clear to me that the former depends on the latter. Would be something for a WI expert to chime in on.
[ Parent ]
glame is right.
Wisconsin state legislative districts have to be composed of whole wards, so they couldn't do the state legislature until the municipalities draw the wards.  
[ Parent ]
Thanks for this info
Very helpful.
[ Parent ]
There are two other Democratic Assemblypeople in Republican Senate districts up for recall:
In SD-08 (Alberta Darling), you've got Sandy Pasch, and in SD-18 (Randy Hopper), you've got Gordon Hintz. The rub is they both represent what look to be the most Democratic parts of each district, so I'm not sure if they'd have crossover appeal.
Why are they being recalled?


19, Male, Conservative, NC-06 (SC-04 college)  
[ Parent ]
They voted for Walker's bill
and are eligible for a recall.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Oh,
my bad. When he said "SD" I took it for South Dakota.  

19, Male, Conservative, NC-06 (SC-04 college)  
[ Parent ]
hahahaha
good as I doubt I was the only who read that and went, wtf, seriously?  I decided to just move along and pretend no one asked that.
[ Parent ]
lol
I'm not that dumb. Idk why I thought SD.... That's why I was thinking what the heck, what happened up there that I didn't hear about?  

19, Male, Conservative, NC-06 (SC-04 college)  
[ Parent ]
State reps aren't the only elected officials, how about county execs and other local pols?......
No, Johnny, I don't expect you to know all that!

I'm just sayin', "strong" candidates, even if one insists on an elected official, aren't limited to state representatives.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
In Darling's case
her district contains parts of Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Washington, and Waukesha counties. As far as county execs go, Waukesha is the now-infamous Kathy Nickolaus, Milwaukee is just-elected Chris Abele, and Ozaukee and Washington are probably Rethugs too.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Abele probably isn't the best candidate for that district
And there's no way Waukesha, Ozaukee or Washington have progressive county execs. They're the most republican counties in the state.
[ Parent ]
Nickolaus is the county clerk not the county executive
I'd imagine though that the county executive is a Republican.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Nickoulas is the county clerk, not the county executive.
The exec in Waukesha is Dan Vrakas, who had nothing but praise for Nickoulas.
[ Parent ]
Oops, my bad
Still, though, little surprise that such a disgustingly Republican county would vote in such a county exec.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
What about famous names
that currently aren't involved in politics?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Hintz has a bit of baggage he'd have to deal with
http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/...

But Patch looks reasonably strong. The good thing is that we don't need the strongest candidate in the world to take out Hopper due to his own issues.

Also, if we're looking for string candidates, I wouldn't discount former State Assemblymen. Our Assembly bench got massacred in 2010, but I could easily see a comeback by someone who got beaten in november from a swingy district.

[ Parent ]
oops
make that strOng candiates
[ Parent ]
Well, if Prosser's re-election is any indication
flipping out at a colleague is not a big deal up there...

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Rumored candidates
Against Hopper, I think we'll see a rematch from 08. His opponent then got within and 150 or so votes and narrowly lost a recount. Her name is Jessica King, and she's an alder in Oshkosh or Fond du Lac, I believe.

Against Darling, it will be either another rematch from 08 against Sheldon Wasserman, or it will be Rep. Pasch, the state rep who replaced him in the Assembly. I think they'll rock paper scissors for it (there won't be a primary at least).

Against Olsen, I've heard Rep. Fred Clark mentioned. Don't know how solid that is.

I haven't heard anything about the rest.

[ Parent ]
How does this work
is this like California where votes say "yes" or "no" to recall and THEN vote for a new Senator?
No, once the recall is validated
then it's just like an election, there are party primaries then a general election.
[ Parent ]
No
It's just a new election.  The incumbent is automatically on the ballot without having to collect any signatures, and challengers have to collect the same amount of signatures they usually would for a November election (which shouldn't be a problem because they can just go get the first 400-800 people off the 18,000+ signatures on the recall petition).
[ Parent ]
I must have missed it in other threads, but...
Is it the plan to do all these recalls separately?

That doesn't make sense to me.  Why not submit all signatures at the same time so all elections (recalling Republicans) can be held on the same day?  This would save a lot of resources, and allow coordinated campaigning.

Basically, I am wondering if some brain trust decided to do them separately, or if nobody really thought about it and that is the way it is coincidentally going to happen?

Basically, the recalls are happening in the order that they get enough signatures for in.
Kapanke and Hopper were the easiest targets, so they're up first.

There's a chance that the Government Accountability Board will try to schedule some of the recall elections for the same day, though.

[ Parent ]
And really, I'm not sure there's a lot of resources that could be saved by more coordination in this case.
Vertical coordination can save resources when there are multiple races on the same ballot, because you can do things like putting everyone's name on the same piece of lit, but horizontal coordination between two people running for different districts isn't as beneficial.
[ Parent ]
.
Waste/saving of resources is not the primary driver of coordination. It'll probably be much easier to oust many of the state senators if all the elections are held the same day. Easier for our side to galvanize voters simply due to lack of confusion about the date.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
I see what you're saying, but I don't think it's going to be that big a deal
These districts will be pretty saturated, but with traditional media and with a huge field push. Any campaign in a special election that DOESN'T repeatedly hit voters over the head with the proper election date is guilty of some pretty gross political malpractice.
[ Parent ]
but = both

[ Parent ]
.
The problem isn't the campaign itself, but the media.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
Yeah, the media will be the primary problem
And I do think there's a chance a couple voters will get confused.

However, unless someone totally drops the ball on these campaigns, most voters will be getting:

-Lots of reminders from television ads about the date of the election
At least 3 pieces of lit featuring the correct election date (at least a mailer, a preelection day canvass, and a pre-election night lit drop)
-Lots of robocalls with the correct date of the election
A canvasser coming to their door before election day (and if they're not home, SEVERAL subsequent attempts these campaigns have collected signatures from somewhere upwards of 30% of general election voters, and are not short on manpower)
-A massive GOTV operation that will include, among other things, lots of calls and several passes of knock and drag canvassing.

The people in these districts will be getting presidential-like exposure. I really don't see a lot of people getting confused about the date with that sort of coverage unless someone totally drops the ball.

[ Parent ]
Wow, didn't realize textile worked on SSP
I really need to learn to start using the preview button.
[ Parent ]
Have petitions been filed for Hopper?
I may have missed it, but I have onlt heard of Kapanke's petition being filed.

Frankly, it is taking awhile to do the others.  I would think labor would be working this 24/7 and already have filed against at least 4 senators by now.

[ Parent ]
Hopper's were filed Thursday.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I think you underestimate the amount of effort it takes
to get signatures from 30% of the people who voted in a general election.
[ Parent ]
The Hopper and Kapanke recall efforts
probably got close to a thousand signatures a day. That's a lot for a small area like a state senate district. The process is going to take a while no matter what.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
FYI...
per this comment, Shilling BEAT Kapanke back in 2000 for the very same assembly seat she holds now.
He did lose in 2000, but not to her
Shilling was elected to the seat in 2000 54-45 over Deb Suchla. That year, Kapanke did run for an open State Senate seat (the one he currently holds), and narrowly lost to Dem Mark Meyer, 51-49. Meyer retired 4 years later and Kapanke won the seat 52-47.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
What about the other Wisc. Republicans?
In another thread, someone said it's not year clear what the effect on Walker will be, whether he will face the same sort of anger that he seemed to be facing a few weeks ago in a few years. Fair enough, I guess. But what about the other state senators? What about the rest of the Republicans in the Midwest? My impression of the court race was that she was a mediocre to port candidate and that people didn't necessarily connect this to the anti-union stuff. In a more general sense, I can't imagine that all of the passion just went away so easily. At least I hope it didn't.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
What would it mean if
Kapanke actually ended up winning by like a percentage point? I'm 99% sure he will lose, so it's not like I'm in denial, but what if he does end up winning and shocking everyone?  What kind of conclusion would that mean could we take away from something of that magnitude?

I guess the only one I could think of is he's better liked than the polls show. Sort of like The former gov's of VT, WY, OK, CT, ect.  Their states voted overwhelmingly for the other party, but they had an appeal with voters in their area that no one could fully understand.  


19, Male, Conservative, NC-06 (SC-04 college)  

I see that as extremely unlikely
He won in 2004 by 52-47, and it was even closer in 2008, I believe.  Barring a complete change of the narrative (and collapse of his erstwhile strong opponent, Jen Schilling), he's gone.  

21,Democrat, NY-02, male
[ Parent ]
But to answer your question..
If Kapanke did win, there's not way to look at it other than disaster for the Dems.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male
[ Parent ]
I think Kapanke and Hopper go down
but the other two in Dem districts get by by the skin of their teeth.

At least right now, but things are flux

Dems aren't even going to get close to recalling the three Milwaukee-area Senators, which is a shame since Darling is in an Obama district.  

[ Parent ]
I think it's awfully dubious to predict them getting by "by the skin of their teeth"......
If you admit it's going to be that close, before we've gotten sigs filed and Dem candidates recruited, you really can't predict Dem defeat!

I have no idea why you think Darling is safe.  Yes I saw the PPP polls including the one that had Darling up 52-44, but SSPers on the ground have reported that contrary to that poll, Republicans are very worried about her, at least as much as Luther Olsen who trailed in the PPP polling.  Besides the PPP poll, the only other reason to think Darling is safe is the complaint about Milwaukee turnout for Kloppenburg.  But that's misleading, that race just wasn't as partisan in reality, let alone on the ballot, to a lot of voters as the recalls will be.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I thought the low turnout in Milwaukee
was in the city, in Lena Taylor's district. Does Darling have any of the city in her district?

[ Parent ]
She does, a few precincts
but the suburbs in her district are also fairly liberal and nearly caused her to lose in 2008.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
She's not THAT safe
But she certainly isn't anywhere near as screwed as Hopper or Kapanke.

Yeah, she has some liberal suburbs in Milwaukee  (although they're nothing like the Dane County Suburbs), but she also has some conservative territory in Waukesha, Washington, and Ozaukee. Obama only won her district by 4 points, which makes it about 10 points more Republican than the state as a whole. While that's about the same margin as Hopper's district, keep in mind that Hopper is suffering from personal scandals.

They'll definitely get the signatures, and it'll be close, but this is probably at best going to be a reasonably close election.

[ Parent ]
That's important, though
if she could barely win while Obama was only winning by 4 points, that indicates her crossover appeal is very limited.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Oh, I definitely think we can beat her
It's just by no means gonna be anything approaching easy.
[ Parent ]
BeloitDem, what about Olsen? How would you peg our chances? And how would you...
...peg our chances at the other two non-safe GOPers?  I can't remember their names off-hand but recall they were the next couple plausible targets after Kapanke, Hopper, Darling, and Olsen.

Are state Dems even still trying to gather sigs for the 2 safe GOPers out of those 8?  I realize signature-gathering in-district is not an opportunity cost for volunteers there, but I hope state Dems aren't spending money there that could be spent elsewhere.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
The other two are Robert Cowles and Sheila Harsdorf (eom)


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Besides the four you mentioned
Sheila Harsdorf up in SD-10 (St Croix and Polk counties) is probably going to face a serious challenge. Hopper and Kapnke are as good as gone. Olsen, Darling, and Harsdorf are all in toss-up territory. My intuition says Olsen is probably a bit safer than Darling because he has more crossover appeal, but the PPP poll contradicts me on that one, so who knows. They'll probably get the signatures for darling first, if nothing else because her district is more compact. I think the other three Republicans are relatively safe.

As for the Democrats, the only one who is really at all threatened in my opinion is Holperin, simply by virtue of living in a swingy district, but he's probably still favored by a pretty substantial margin. I know they're making a lot of noise about Wirch, but but even if they get the signatures, he's probably still favored.

[ Parent ]
There are volunteers, but not a lot of emphasis
Sorry to but in, but I am also on the ground.  I know there have been signature gathering efforts in those district, but the effort is mostly people in those districts.  If you go to WisconsinRecall.net, you would find that there is not effort a contact point in those districts, so I can imagine there is very little money or infrastructure coming from the state party.

As for the remaining ones, I think it is going to be pretty hard to take down Cowles.  He has been in office for so long, is in a pretty Republican district, and unlike Darling, there is little natural base of support.  I know they have been directing people into his district so I can take that as a sign things are not going too swell.   As for Olsen and Harsdorf,  I would not say that they are anything other than tossup.  I think we need to see who their opponents will be and how exactly the whole budget process plays out, as it could potentially piss off even more people.  

[ Parent ]
The Dem party isn't spending much money at all
It's all outside groups.

There is an active effort in Lazich and Grothman's districts, but those are wholly in district affairs, whereas for everyone else, activists from outside the district are being directed there.

FWIW, it's not a waste of time, even if they're guaranteed to lose the election or just come up short. Everyone who signs a petition against Grothman or Lazich is someone who'd sign against Walker next year. So it's good to find them.

[ Parent ]
Two things......
First, fantastic point that every sig even against a safe GOPer is helpful against Walker next year.  That makes perfect sense.

Second, that's interesting the state party isn't spending much on signature-gathering.  I gave the WDP $250, and the WI Dem state Senate committee another $250, all in the span of a few days leading up to and including the surprise vote Walker gamed out.  If they can get a lot of needed work done without spending party money, that's great, I'm all for that, go ahead and save it for the recall elections themselves.  But I hope it's spent then, because that's why I gave!

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Your donations are great
And will be helpful when the actual elections come up.

However there's not much money involved in signature gathering - it's basically all just volunteer labor.

[ Parent ]
There are 8-10 paid organizers in the state
But they're funded by an outside group, Wisconsin Progress.  
[ Parent ]
Where are you hearing that?
If you talking about Lazich (sp?) and Grothman, we were never going to win there. Those districts are incredibly red.

As for Darling, the campaign is on track to get enough signatures.  Yes it is taking a bit longer, but look how many signatures it takes-around 21,000.  That means we have to collect 25,000-30,000 just to be safe.  So it is taking a bit longer.  As for her vulnerability, it will be close.  Obama did win the district, but by less than statewide and Prosser did win her district by 10,000.  While there is not many City of Milwaukee wards in her district, it is enough that it will make the difference in a close election. So working on turnout over the summer will be key.  

[ Parent ]
The three Milwaukee-area Senators
Why won't we get close to recalling them?

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Geographic Proximity to Milwuakee can be deceptive
I'm pretty sure that by "the Milwaukee area Senators," You're referring to Darling (SD-8), Grothman (SD-20), and Lazich (SD-28). The problem: the Waukesha, Washington, and Ozaukee are actually the most republican counties in the state, being full of white flight from Milwaukee. Drotham's district is Washighton and Ozaukee, and Lazich's district is Waukesha. Both went 60-40 for McCain. awhile we have a shot at Darling, the other two are actually in the safest Republican districts of the the republicans facing recall, by a long shot. I sort doubt they'll even get enough signatures for either of them.
[ Parent ]
That makes sense.
I don't feel so bad knowing this. I don't think anybody every expected to have a shot at Grothman's district.

If you don't mind, can you give me an overview of how the entire process is going and what we might accomplish? I've completely fallen behind on this stuff.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Oh I do too,
but in all honesty, I thought Prosser was going to lose by 5 points or so. Now, it's looking like he'll win by a percentage or less. This shows me that even when the narrative appears bleak, anyone can still win, by a fluke in either party every now and then, wether it's 1% chance, or less.  

19, Male, Conservative, NC-06 (SC-04 college)  
[ Parent ]
I think it was wishful thinking on the part of most people to see Prosser lose handily
Just by watching her post election speech, you could tell Kloppenburg was a candidate who would have been Klobbered (heh) in ANY other election cycle.  Did not know how to answer questions at all.  Completely a fluke if she won anyhow.

Prosser was seasoned, a long-time incumbent, and people weren't going to throw him out easily. AND, he's a former politican who knew how to run campaigns. Yes, I was surprised at the margins in the blood red Milwaukee suburbs, but Kloppenburg put up a pretty good performance in the swingier areas.

I see Kapanke losing for sure, I'd bet money on it.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male

[ Parent ]
Not to mention how hard it is to take out an incumbent justice
It's only happened 4 times in state history. The fact that she came so close was amazing. I always thought that if she was going to win, it would be by no more than a couple of percentage points.
[ Parent ]
i don't think
a conservative wished for prosser to lose

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
Of course I don't/didn't,
but I still bought into the narrative from what I had read on multiple political websites, and from the TV shows I had seen that the GOTV effort by the Dems was far superior since they were all pissed off by Walker, and the Republicans were depressed.

So I truely did feel she would win, and I was deffinately surprised by the result.  

19, Male, Conservative, NC-06 (SC-04 college)  

[ Parent ]
I never had the impression you had......
I always thought it was a tossup at best for Kloppenburg.

I always figured beating an incumbent judge would be tough, much tougher than beating a legislator or executive on an expressly partisan ballot, and I always wondered whether the tie to Prosser would really stick with voters.  That 3rd-party groups had to carry Kloppenburg was a worry.  And after the sex offender ad backfired thanks to the response ad featuring a victim defending Prosser, I was worried that would be real trouble...and I think it was.

I always thought beating Prosser was the heaviest lift out of all the electoral opportunties Wisconsin Dems would have this year.

Another SSPer smartly pointed out how important the nonpartisan designation on the ballot really is.  Walker won big in Milwaukee County Exec races 3 times, and yet he got crushed 62-38 last year for Governor in his home county in a GOP wave year!  In California, Steve Cooley won repeatedly as LA County District Attorney, but then got crushed by 14 points in LA County in the state Attorney General's race last year--again, despite a GOP wave year.

In that vein, think the recalls, explicitly partisan, will be better for Dems.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Ahh, you just made a good point.
Isn't the Milwaukee County Exec a nonpartisan position? I think that shows how he was able to win, because he didn't have an [R] next to his name. Then, when he ran for Gov and the R was placed next to his name that's all it took for some ppl, if they have an [R] or a [D] they just will never vote for you.  

19, Male, Conservative, NC-06 (SC-04 college)  
[ Parent ]
Agree Completely
I was thinking that Kloppenburg was well positioned about two and a half weeks ago, but I had a sinking feeling from the moment the third party groups switched from hitting Prosser on his ties to Walker and temperment issues(things that were hard to rebut and likely to mobilize the right voters) and switched to the personal attack on the sex offender issue.

I don't think I can remember a time when an attack like this actually worked. The problem with going after specific cases is that there was almost always more going on than you can put forward in a 30 second ad and you are always extremly vulnerable to a victim/lawyer/judge/mother going up in a response ad and calling you scum for running it. Brad Carson got destroyed when he tried to go after Coburn for performing a "non-voluntary sterilization" on a mentally ill woman only to have the mother and lawyer for the girl go on TV and denounce Carson.

Not even that, it was the wrong message. It was distracting, and no one who was not inclined to already dislike Prosser was going to buy that he was actually guilty of what he was being accused. He had been around too long for that.

So it was a bad move even before it backfired, and it seized control of the media cylce for the second to last week, filling it with stories about how negative the race was. Then the rebuttle came up, and well, Kloppenburg mishandled questions about both at the debates.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

[ Parent ]
Agree 100% with your comment, and a completely unrelated question about you......
What is a "Euro-conservative"?  I can venture my own guess, but why bother when I can just ask you?

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
The
key to this is Democrats shouldn't feel complacent and neglect GOTV. I think what would be Kapanke's best bet is if Democrats think this in the bag and focus on somewhere else.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Considering that none of the other republicans facing recall are particularly close to Kapanke's district
And there's a good chance the elections will be on different days, I don't think that'll be a major issue.
[ Parent ]
That would be dumb
there are only like seven races.

Kapanke's best bet is if Republicans successfully file recall petitions against some of the Dems.  

[ Parent ]
We blame Obama
but seriously, it would mean people are voting against their interests and beliefs...another words, same ol' America.

[ Parent ]
Well, Shilling's website just got updated
But from the look of things, she just slapped "for state senate" on the bottom of her logo in a couple of places and added a tab to the scrolly picture thing on the front page saying she's running.
WI Recall: Dem Jennifer Shilling Announces Candidacy Against Kapanke | 108 comments

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