I had several goals here:
1. Knock out either Gardner or Tipton
2. Keep a district that Perlmutter can continue to hold relatively easily.
3. Make Coffman have to actually campaign, at the very least.
4. Create a district that Salazar or another moderate Dem can win and continue to hold.
District 3 (Purple): This is currently represented by Scott Tipton, but he lives in the new 4th, and would probably much rather try to primary Gardner than hold this marginal seat. The seat is now Pueblo-based and adds all the liberal ski towns from the 2nd district. It does add conservative Park and Fremont counties from the 5th, but its loss of all the heavily GOP counties on the Western Slope more than offsets that. It has a little arm reaching back to nab Grand Junction in order to meet population equality. My best guess is this goes from its current R+5 rating to around R+1 or R+2. Salazar probably would have won re-election if he had this in 2010 and could easily win in any other year. Other possible candidates include State House Minority Leader Sal Pace of Pueblo.
Likely D if Salazar runs; tossup otherwise
District 4 (Red): This GOP vote sink manages to combine both Cory Gardner, who lives in Yuma in northeast Colorado, and Scott Tipton, who lives in Cortez in southwest Colorado. It contains all of the heavily GOP counties on both the Eastern Plains and Western Slope. In addition, it loses both Fort Collins and Greeley, resulting in perhaps the most Republican district in the state. It could be anywhere from R+15 to R+20.
Safe R
Metro Denver:
District 1 (blue): This is Diana DeGette's Denver-based district. Other than adding a few Arapahoe County precincts for population equality, not much of a change here. It's currently D+21
Safe D
District 6 (teal): This is Mike Coffman's suburban district, currently R+8. However, it sheds extremely wealthy and conservative Douglas Country, as well as rural Elbert County, and the rural eastern part of Arapahoe County. It adds a bunch of suburban areas in slightly D-leaning Jefferson and Adams Counties. Although Coffman could probably still be able hold it, this would become a toss-up if he vacates the seat. This is probably between R+3 and even PVI.
Lean R for Coffman, Tossup if open
District 7 (gray): This is the other suburban Denver district, currently held by Ed Perlmutter. It basically just trades parts of Adams County for Jefferson County, which is pretty much a wash, and is probably still around the current D+4, but after dismantling Fraiser by 11% in 2010, he's definitely safe.
Likely D for Perlmutter, Lean D if open
Northern Colorado:
District 2 (green): Jared Polis' Boulder-based district sheds the ski towns, but adds liberal Fort Collins and Greeley to remain safe. Probably unchanged much from the current D+11.
Safe D
Colorado Springs:
District 5 (yellow): This incredible GOP vote sink, held by Doug Lamborn, takes in Colorado Springs and a bunch of extremely wealthy parts of Douglas County: Castle Pines, Castle Rock, Lone Tree, etc. It sheds liberal Lake County and swingy Chaffee County to the 3rd, as well as conservative, prison-filled Park and Fremont Counties. It is probably even more Republican than its current R+14, and could be approaching R+20.
Safe R
So, here's a recap:
District 1: Diana DeGette, Safe D
District 2: Jared Polis, Safe D
District 3: likely D for John Salazar, tossup otherwise
District 4: Cory Gardner/Scott Tipton, Safe R
District 5: Doug Lamborn, Safe R
District 6: Mike Coffman, Lean R for Coffman, tossup otherwise
District 7: Ed Perlmutter, Likely D for Perlmutter, lean D otherwise |
