Google Ads


Site Stats

SSP Daily Digest: 4/8

by: DavidNYC

Fri Apr 08, 2011 at 8:14 AM EDT


Senate:

AZ-Sen: So what the heck happened with Trent Franks? The Arizona Guardian is reporting that the Republican Congressman had been promising people jobs on his pending Senate campaign, and that his people had even gone so far as to ensure proper media risers were available at the hotel where Franks was supposed to make his big announcement. Yet it all vanished in a heartbeat when Franks unexpectedly pulled the plug. Says the Guardian: "The good thing is, there's still another year-and-a-half to get the full story before the 2012 elections." Also, in case you haven't seen it yet, Dave Catanese penned a piece explaining the backstory on how he got burned by Franks' consultant. It just adds to all the weirdness.

FL-Sen: Tucked inside that Quinnipiac poll which showed tough numbers for Obama was this nugget:

Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, who like Obama is on the 2012 ballot, is in better shape, with a 47-26 percent approval rating, a 43-39 percent lead over an unidentified Republican and voters saying 43-35 percent that he deserves another term in the Senate.

MI-Sen (PDF): A week or so ago, Republican-affiliated pollster Market Research Group offered some better-than-everyone-else approval ratings for Gov. Rick Snyder. Apparently, they also polled the Senate race at the same time, pitting Dem Debbie Stabenow against Some Dude Randy Hekman. Amusingly, the polling memo says the Senator has a "slim" 11-point lead over Hekman, 45-34. But the real problem is the sample, which is 26 R, 26 D, 43 I - in other words, nothing like reality.

MRG also polled a hypothetical state Supreme Court matchup between incumbent Supreme Court Justice Brian Zahra and former Gov. Jennifer Granholm, which had Zahra up 38-33. (Moving from the statehouse to the high court is not unheard of in Michigan.) Speaking of Granholm, she was supposedly under consideration to head up the Consumer Financial Protection Board but says she withdrew her name (and likes Elizabeth Warren for the job). It sounds like Granholm is keeping pretty busy, and the article notes she's teaching at UC Berkeley, so perhaps she's enjoying the weather out in Cali a bit more than back home. But Granholm is a former state AG and was even supposedly a possible Supreme Court pick, so perhaps a judicial run is plausible.

PA-Sen: Sam Rohrer, the teabaggy ex-state Rep. who got pounded by Tom Corbett in the PA-Gov GOP primary last year, says he's "50-50" on running against Bob Casey this cycle. Rohrer has the perfect pedigree: He runs the Pennsylvania chapter of the malevolent David Koch front group Americans for Prosperity.

VA-Sen: Passed along without comment:

NBC 4's reporter-anchor Craig Melvin is a tall African-American. Which apparently led to this exchange with former Sen. George Allen, according to Melvin's Twitter account Tuesday night:

"For the 2nd time in 5 months, fmr. gov. and sen candidate George Allen asks me,"what position did you play?" I did not a play a sport."

Actually, I changed my mind. If you still don't think George Allen is a racist fuck, read this coda from ThinkProgress writer Lee Feng. And no, Allen didn't apologize - he offered a classic bullshit "I'm sorry if I offended you" response. That's bullshit.

Anyhow, Roanoke College released a poll of the race, showing Allen leading Tim Kaine by 45-32 - a rather different picture than what we saw from PPP. However, the WaPo ran an above-the-item update warning readers to be "cautious" about this survey because "[r]esults were adjusted only for gender, and the resulting sample is not representative of Virginia's racial composition, its age structure or regional population densities." It also looks like the horserace question was asked after about a bajillion issue-related questions (PDF), some of them kind of weird.

Finally, in Some Dude news... some other Some Dude (an African-American minister named Earl Jackson) decided to get into the GOP primary, a race with a lot of Some Dudes already in it.

Gubernatorial:

GA-Gov: PPP did a re-do poll in Georgia, too, and found Dem ex-Gov. Roy Barnes would edge actual Gov. Nathan Deal by a single point today, 46-45. Tom says that this isn't a case of voter disgust with Deal (he has pretty meh ratings, not downright radioactive ones like Scott Walker), but rather a clear sign of last year's enthusiasm gap that will forever haunt us. There's also a smorgasbord of other Peach State odds-and-ends at the link.

KY-Gov: Gov. Steve Beshear (D) is out with his first radio ads of the campaign, touting his small-town roots, a week after his likely Republican opponent, David Williams, also went up on radio. Unlike Beshear, Williams faces a primary on May 17th, so he's also going up on cable TV with a new ad you can watch here. NWOTSOTB for any of these.

MS-Gov: Turns out PPP did in fact test the Republican gubernatorial primary in Mississippi. Click through if you really, really care. (Hint: You won't.)

UT-Gov: State Rep. Stephen Sandstrom, a teabagger fave to challenge immigration apostate Gary Herbert for the governor's mansion, says on Facebook that he has "no plans or intentions to run." (Yes, it would be more awesome if his name were Stephen Sandstorm.)

WV-Gov: In case you weren't sure where all the players in the Democratic primary field stand on the ideology spectrum (something we'll be rectifying with a more in-depth post shortly), this is a helpful guidepost: Acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin was endorsed by the WV Chamber of Commerce. The Chamber also endorsed the only two legit Republicans running, Betty Ireland and Bill Maloney.

House:

CA-26, CA-06: Assemblyman Anthony Portantino is getting some high-profile fundraising help: Steve Israel is coming out to Pacific Palisades this weekend for a breakfast event. The same piece also notes that Assemblyman Jared Huffman raised $120K for a federal account in Q1; Huffman is interested in 73-year-old Rep. Lynn Woolsey's seat, if she retires. Woolsey apparently will decide whether to seek another term by June.

FL-25: Idiot.

IL-08: I'm not exactly broken up by this news: Ex-Rep. Melissa Bean, whose race was the closest in the nation last year (she lost by 290 votes to a real piece of work), says she won't run again. She's now CEO of something called the Executives Club of Chicago, which doesn't really give off a man-of-the-people vibe, now does it?

MI-09: If there's one guy repeatedly written off as a redistricting victim who I'd really love to see find a way to survive, it's Rep. Gary Peters. Despite what must have been an exhausting last several years raising money, the Michigan Dem wasted no time getting right back into the game, pulling in over $400K in Q1. He has half a mil on hand.

NM-01: This Roll Call piece (also linked below in a redistricting item) mentions a few Dem names we hadn't discussed here before: state Rep. Al Park, Bernalillo County Clerk Maggie Toulouse Oliver, and Bernalillo County Commissioner Michelle Lujan Grisham, who lost the 2008 primary for this seat.

NY-13: Ex-Rep. Mike McMahon will join the "government relations" (i.e., lobbying) group at a mid-sized NYC law firm. He's apparently being brought on as "counsel" status, rather than as a partner, so this could just be a way-station to allow him to pay the bills as he weighs a re-match... but of course, he risks getting hit with the lobbyist taint.

PA-17: Activist Sheila Dow-Ford confirms the rumors that she's considering another run against Rep. Tim Holden, against whom she took 35% in the Democratic primary last year. Holden could get a bluer district when all is said and done, so a challenge from the left is a real possibility - but as Dow-Ford herself notes, others are interested, and I wouldn't be surprised if some bigger-name candidates got in if the seat became markedly more Dem.

UT-02: Huh - I can't exactly accuse the Salt Lake Tribune of burying the lede, since they put this in the second graf, but Rep. Jim Matheson says he's waiting to see what the new district lines look like before deciding whether to run again, or instead if he'll seek statewide office. A statewide run doesn't seem like a particularly appealing escape hatch, but both Gov. Gary Herbert (see item above) and Sen. Orrin Hatch could wind up damaged by teabaggers, so you never know. A couple of other statewide offices Matheson could see (Treasurer, Auditor) are up as well.

Also, Some Dude Chuck Williams, an Air Force vet who lost a couple of GOP primaries for Congress... in California... says he plans to challenge Matheson for his House seat, and that he'll run regardless of where the lines get drawn.

VA-11: Via FEC Kenobi, Some Dude Christopher Perkins just filed as a Republican to challenge Gerry Connolly. That's a pretty un-Google-able name, so I can't tell you much about him... though I do know his home is worth $743,130!

WV-01: Freshman Rep. David McKinley (R), who won a close race last year, says he's raised over half a mil in the first quarter. Note, though, that he still has $670K in campaign debt from last cycle.

Other Races:

Allegheny Co. Exec.: PoliticsPA, via Municipoll, has a race out on the Allegheny, PA County Executive's race. I'm gonna admit straight off the bat that I don't know the players here, but click through for details.

IN-SoS: So a judge allowed a Dem challenge to SoS Charlie White's eligibility to serve in office to proceed, but really, you just need to read Bob Bobson's summary of where things stand - and where things will head now. (Bob's been doing an awesome job of staying on top of this oftentimes-complicated story, so pay attention to him.)

Champaign, IL Mayor: Here's a nice little election result that we otherwise missed: The avowedly teabagging mayor of Champaign, Illinois was narrowly defeated by a political newcomer on Tuesday night, the first time, in fact, that he'd ever been opposed in 12 years in office. I'm a little surprised that the university town of Champaign would have elected such a wingnut in the first place, but this is still good news.

Specials: Johnny Longtorso:

Democrat Kevin Johnson won a 5-point victory over Republican Sonny Sanders in South Carolina's HD-64.

[On whether this seat was supposedly a Dem stronghold:]

I took another look at it; it's almost all of a county that Obama got around 56% in along with one or two precincts of an adjacent county, and it's about 50/50 white/black, so black turnout may have been low. So he just did a few points worse than Obama's numbers in 2008.

Wisconsin Recall: Dems filed over 22,000 signatures to recall state Sen. Randy Hopper yesterday. Republicans claim they are close to filing petitions for Sen. Robert Wirch, one of the more endangered Dems on the list.

Remainders:

WATN?: Ethan Hastert, son of ex-Speaker Denny the Hutt and victim of a genuinely impressive teabagger-fueled anybody-but-Ethan movement to deny him the GOP nomination in IL-14 last year, has managed to win elective office this year. He earned a council seat in the village of Elburn, IL, which has a population that is actually a few thousand smaller than my census tract. Don't call it a comeback!

Redistricting Roundup:

Arkansas: Total impasse: The state House rejected the state Senate's congressional redistricting plan, complementing the Senate's recent rejection of the House plan. Some procedural maneuvers may be used to try to get things moving forward again, which lawmakers are probably eager to do, since the legislative session was scheduled to end over a week ago.

California: Look, it's basically impossible to find a law firm that knows anything about redistricting which has never had any prior political involvement. So I don't understand why it's coming as a surprise that Gibson Dunn, the firm hired by the redistricting commission, has a political fund and has used it to make donations. Oh wait, I think I do - it's because most (but by no means all) of those donations were made to Democrats, so the GOP is continuing its plan to do everything it can to "discredit" the entire process. It's especially silly, because the firm specifically tasked one Dem attorney and one Republican attorney to lead the effort... but then again, the GOP is especially silly.

Louisiana: Nathan Gonzales has a good piece untangling the wreck that is Louisiana redistricting, and offering some insight into the behind-the-scenes process. I strongly encourage you to click through the link for the full flavor. (As an inducement, there's a bowl full of cat food inside.) Apparently, a compromise plan is in the works, but Nathan says that if an agreement isn't reached by next week, the lege will have to wait until next year to finish its work. (They can't call a special session?) Anyhow, like I say, read the whole thing.

New Mexico: Though legislators won't hold a special session on redistricting until the fall, apparently a plan is brewing among Democrats to excise GOP-leaning Torrance County from the 1st CD. The problem, though, is that while Dems control the lege, Gov. Susana Martinez is, of course, a Republican - a very similar situation to the last round of map-drawing in 2001, which eventually ended up in court.

Texas: You can play with various Texas map proposals at the link.

Virginia: Two Virginia items. First, the House of Delegates approved the Republican gerrymander for that body, though most Democrats were actually stupid enough to vote in favor of the plan. (Hasn't anyone ever heard of a symbolic protest vote to at least signal to your supporters that you know you're getting the shaft, even if it's for the greater good?) Second, a (the?) congressional plan was released, and it's potentially not as bad as it could be. Have a look-see.

DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 4/8
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

I dearly hope...
Democrats turn up the pressure in Indiana by filing suit in protest of allowing partisan officials to rule on their challenge to Secy. White's eligibility.

The alternate route, perhaps less fun, would be to offer some sort of compromise (don't know how this would work legalistically, but in my experience following political shenanigans, where there's a will, there is often a way) that would acknowledge voters' intent to keep the Republican Party as a major party while disqualifying votes for White and making Osili the secretary-elect by default.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


IDP Chair appoints former Hamilton County Judge Buddy Pylitt to Indiana Recount Commission.
http://www.indems.org/index.ph...

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Cue screaming and wailing from GOP...
About how Pylitt is a "liberal activist judge" and Democrats are trying to "steal the election".

At the risk of jinxing it here, I'm really grateful for Gov. Daniels - not because I really like or agree with him, but because even though he's conservative and partisan, he's not batshit insane and he's not a nakedly opportunistic culture warrior a la Govs. Scott, Walker, Kasich, Daugaard, McDonnell, and LePage. I think he's an honest believer in "good government", and even though he has a completely different idea of what that "good government" should look like than I do, he's at least sincere and relatively consistent in his beliefs.

If it were Walker, Kasich, or Rep. Pence, I'd have no doubt the governor's office would be blasting out condemnations of Pylitt and slamming this "frivolous lawsuit" while using the whole kerfuffle to fundraise and mobilize an army of angry uneducated reactionaries and twisting as many arms as necessary to make sure the commission is preordained to decide against the Democrats. But since it's Daniels, I actually expect he'll be fairly professional in how he handles this situation.

And watch him turn around by the end of the day and do all those nasty things now that I've said he won't, of course...

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


[ Parent ]
Daniels was a Bushie
Amazing how the GOP have driven off an even steeper cliff than those guys did.

[ Parent ]
Indeed
Just when you thought it was safe to come out of the water...

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
I was thinking about this the other day
With each era they seem to get more conservative - Nixon/Ford then Reagan/Bush followed by Dubya and now these guys. Scary stuff.  

[ Parent ]
For some reason
people expect the Republican party to moderate with each passing era. They think this is the peak of their Conservatism, but I don't think their done yet. 2010 fooled them into believing the country likes their move further to the right. They have no reason as of now to moderate.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Well let's just hope this is all leading up to
them blowing up and no longer being a viable party with population growth and demographic changes.  The amount of racism expelled from this latest conservative craze could be the last throes of the modern conservative movement.  The electoral college, with the change of many southern states to Dem (small "s" for a reason), is leading up to the final nail in the coffin.  Arizona will follow CO and Texas isn't too far behind Arizona.  The math just simply won't be there soon enough with Hispanic growth or demographic changes of rural to city.

Obama came a bit too early for his time and to make everything more linear, I think, he would have came after Hillary.  But the tea-party, and now, in part, the GOP as a whole in the macro vision of politics come off very desperate and will go to any lengths to ensure Obama isn't successful and the celebrated for fixing the economy.  Every thing has been an utter shit-show, with the shut-down now looming with a few hours to go.  And I personally think the GOP would have been fine with fucking over the tea-party here, but Boehner and Cantor realized they would have been tossed on their asses in their respective primaries so they decided to shut it down.  (Here's an example of not wanting leadership from a constituency with a solid majority of a certain partisanship.)  Hopefully this makes it so they get blamed for this stupidity and the tea party is their own un-doing.  Come on, which party has people have signs saying "Shut It Down" on them?  Eazy fucking peazy.


[ Parent ]
Mike Pence himself was saying shut it down.
I don't imagine it would go over well in a gubernatorial election season. Even in Indiana.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
I think Daniels is sick of White/the Walker clones in the state legislature/yet another gay marriage ban/etc. getting in the way of his agenda
He put a lot of time and effort into building a strong majority in the state legislature during the 2010 cycle, and now he can't quietly pass education and local government 'reform' bills like he wanted to.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Too comical
My favorite reason same-day registration should be implemented nation-wide; it would have saved the GOP SoS in Indiana and keep the IN GOP from becoming a minor party.  Irony can be beautiful.

[ Parent ]
Agreed.
I won't pretend to be an expert on Daniels' administration, but at least I respect him based on what I know about him. I can't think I feel the same for many Republicans these days.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I just realized
That there is an interesting sentence in Judge Rosenberg's ruling.
The Court is confident that the Commission will act with similar dispatch in trying this matter. In the event that the proceedings below are unduly delayed, this court would have jurisdiction to insure a speedier disposition.

I hadn't noticed that when I first read this. Rosenberg's motivation in returning the matter to the Commission is apparently judicial hesitancy to become too closely involved in resolving a political dispute, but he's still retained the right to intervene if the Republicans on the Commission attempt to stall.

The Indiana Dems have made the full judgement available in .pdf format, for those interested.

Jim Shella has written a new blog post detailing how thoroughly screwed White is, as well. 



Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
VA House Dems
It's quite believable that only eight Dems would vote against the GOP gerrymanders of the House of Delegates. The place is full of a bunch of gutless hacks. Ward Armstrong was one of them but since his district was carved up, he voted against it. Nice knowing you, Ward. Not.

Meanwhile, all the Republicans in the State Senate voted against the Dem gerrymander. It's disheartening that we couldn't do the same in the other wing of the State Capitol but, again, it's really not that surprising.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05


Here's my early take on redistricting.
The Iowa plan I is gathering steam as it now seems likely to pass.  I still think this plan is as good as it gets for the GOP. By the numbers its as close to 2-2 they can hope for pluas as noted Western Iowa is split between CD3 & CD4. Latham will move, IMO, to take on Boswell.

MO's plans also look good for the GOP as the D plan and GOP plan both gave Lacy Clay all of St Louis city.  Past that I don't care if MO has three St louis area seats or two. The House & senate plans may force congressman Lutemayer to move but so what?  

VA-enough said.  This plan looks alot like 8-3.  The democrats are giving up a CD seat for the state senate. Looks like a fair swap as I suspect the judges would do a standpat plan.

AR. The senate plan was certainly standpat.  The Fayetteville finger was mostly standpat but hurt the GOP a bit more then the senate plan.  I look for a compromise on Monday that is standpat in nature.  That's a plus for the GOP.  


The
VA map left VA-02 unchanged.

In AR, they will probably draft up something new.  But as I told you, the Senate map (which was passed by a committee that was split 50/50 for some reason) was a nonstarter.

Also, the MO map can certainly avoid veto override based on the vote total.  It's just a matter of pushing a few votes around to ensure that.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Err, I think VA-2 changed some
It now cuts into Newport News and takes the relatively white areas of that city. Those used to be in VA-01.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

[ Parent ]
Yeah
The past district was 51-49 Obama, the new district voted for McCain by about 200 votes. They easily could have made it more like 51-52% McCain, though.

Male, VA-08

[ Parent ]
Veto in MO is
immaterial if D's have agreeded on giving Lacy Clay all of St louis city.  If Clay has North St louis county plus all of St Louis city plus Cleaver has all of the D parts of Jackson county.  Then the rest of the state is pretty much 6R.  You would have to some sort of spiderweb looking seat to get a third D seat out of the rest of MO.

The rest of the process in MO, IMO, is just seeing what the six suburban and outstate districts look like.  


[ Parent ]
The Iowa plan is a double-edged sword for Republicans......
Latham is no better than 50-50 vs. Boswell, and King's district becomes vulnerable enough that an extremist like him could easily lose.

So yeah it can go 2-2, but it just as easily can become 4-0 Democratic.

The Republicans are considerably less likely to win either of the eastern districts than Democrats are to take the western seats.

King's seat in particular is one where I hope state Dems are scrounging for a good candidate.  Not only is it substantially less Republican than King has ever enjoyed, but it takes in a lot of new counties that have never had to deal with King, and quite a few of them are very Democratic in the first place.  The folks in Story, Boone, Hamilton, Webster, and Cerro Gordo are not going to vote for King against any competent Democrat.  Especially with Presidential turnout, this seat is ripe for the taking.  It would be a tough hold later against a more conventional Republican challenger, but King can be beaten.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Agreed...
State Rep. Dan Muhlbauer might be a good recruit; he's also got two terms as Crawford County supervisor under his belt. He was just elected last year despite the Republican wave, as was Sioux City Rep. Chris Hall.

Their colleague Beth Wessel-Kroeschell, who represents Ames, might be the establishment favorite, as she's on her seventh year in the Iowa House.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


[ Parent ]
keep looking
Muhlbauer deserts the Party on social issues of importance to lgbt voters; I'd be sorry to see that rewarded with a Congressional seat. There are many more progressive and/or populist democrats in the Iowa state legislature if that's where we're looking for Congressional recruits.  

Half the population believes our electoral system is broken. The other half believes it is fixed. Wakeuplaughing.com  

[ Parent ]
I'm sorry to hear that...
Although bear in mind IA-04 will still have a Republican PVI, so the most progressive candidate isn't necessarily our best bet here.

What do you know about Hall or Wessel-Kroeschell?

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


[ Parent ]
Iowa reps
I know nothing about Hall except where she's from. The only thing I know about Beth Wessel-Kroeschel is that she's in her 4th term; one could infer that she represents a pretty safe district as she ran unopposed at least once.  

Half the population believes our electoral system is broken. The other half believes it is fixed. Wakeuplaughing.com  

[ Parent ]
I buy most of those ideas
as there is no doubt King's seat is more D then before.  Does he have enough room to spare?  I think so but I would contend that its a bad idea for the GOP to build their plan for Iowa around protecting King.  Yes he is by far the most conservative congressman from Iowa for years.  Perhaps since HR Gross!!!  Yet I contend you have to weaken King to have chances at the other three seats.

I think Latham-Boswell would be a classic tossup and I freely admit that I don't know enough about DesMoines to handicap that race.  For that matter if there was a shinning star GOP type from there he/she might be a better candidate against Boswell.  I frankly do not know.  My guess is Latham would be best candidate.

As to Iowa 1 & Iowa 2 its clear Braley was the clear winner in redistricting.  His seat stayed about the same and actually did not slip in the rural-urban%.  Loesbeck got the short straw in a lot of ways but his seat was several % more D but that advantage has disappeared.  

Alot depends who runs in 2012 in those two seats and what the political climate is.  In off years Iowa 1 & 2 will certainly see spirited races.  

There is no doubt its a mixed bag in Iowa for both parties but the demon you know as opposed to the unknown seems to be driving acceptance of this plan.  


[ Parent ]
There will rarely be "spirited" races in IA-01 or IA-02......
Last year was as close as Republicans will get in those districts, and that they still couldn't win was telling.

Braley and Loebsack will have their seats as long as they want them.

Republicans aren't looking to "protect" King, it's simply that the state GOP has moved so far to the extreme right that he likely can't be beaten in a primary.  So they're stuck with him.  King is racist and a religious bigot and flaunts these things about himself, in addition to be inflammatory about everything else he chooses to talk about.  So he's going to be permanently vulnerable in a district like this one, even in a midterm, until he loses or gives it up voluntarily to retire or run for another office.  And 2012 will be particularly vulnerable for him.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Your response reminds me of the
Monty Python  sketch about the person who wanted a good arguement.  After a few moments he noticed that instead of a good arguement the other person was just disagreeing with everything he said.

I note that Iowa 1 & 2 had spirited races in 2006, 2008 and 2010.  Iowa 2 is quite a bit more republican, then before, under this map plus Loesbeck's home county is gone.  Braley lost his two of his  best counties plus has a ton of new area.

What makes you think that Braley and Loesbeck will suddenly escape serious races in these districts for the next ten years?  


[ Parent ]
Your first paragraph is really ironic.
Also, spirited races in 2008, what? Braley won by 30 points, Loebsack got a slightly stronger opponent and still won by 18.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
what about 2006 & 2010?
I take your point on 2008. 40% for a foe in the face of the Obama tidalwave might qualify as "spirited"

Yet 2010 was certainly spirited and quite tight.  Given the conditions I spelled out the idea that Iowa 1 & 2 would become democratic locks seems a little far fetched.


[ Parent ]
2006
IA-01 was an open seat, IA-02 was held by a longtime popular incumbent, of course they were going to be "spirited." As for 2010, that was a gigantic Republican wave, even bigger than 1994. That's not a common occurrence and I've noticed that you have a tendency to act as if it's something that happens with regularity.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
what would happen in 2014
If the President is re-elected?  The six year itch hit parties hard in 1938-1946-1958-1966-1974-1986-2006 and so forth.  Would it be shocking to see Iowa 1 & Iowa 2 be highly contested in a six year inch situation?

For that matter we had waves in 1980-1982-1986-1994-2006-2008-2010.  Have we ever had a decade without a wave?  

I guess your thinking is that 2010 will the last year we ever see a wave or maybe just the last GOP wave?


[ Parent ]
Of those waves, only two were second-term midterms under a Dem pres
and if I'm counting right, five of those total were Dem waves anyway.

I find it interesting how you don't mention 1998, which would be comparable to 2014 (Dem president who gets elected by a good margin, spends lots of political capital, loses big in first midterm, [presumably] gets re-elected). I've heard an argument that that was special because of the impeachment situation, but who's to say the Republicans won't do something stupid again? Hell, I'd say they've managed to only get stupider in the past 16 years.

Of course waves happen, but assuming that they will happen again is ridiculous. Even if a Republican wave came in and swept away a D+6 district, it would just come back in the next neutral or D wave election.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
oops
forget the "under a Dem pres" part, I was referring to 1986 and 2006.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Decades without waves
Really, no.  Going back to the 1850's, when Republicans and Democrats became the two major parties, there's been at least one year each decade where one party made big gains, in presidential and/or midterm elections.  

Of course, many of these were "course correction" waves, when many who got swept in due to presidential coattails or by opposing an unpopular president got swept out in a less favorable, or at least more balanced, environment.

35, Male, Democrat, MD-8


[ Parent ]
And Braley actually won by 12 points in 2006......
It was "spirited" as an open seat for a short time early on, but Braley ran away with it.  He'd pulled way in front in polling in the summer, before Labor Day, and stayed far in front right through election day.

IA-01 and IA-02 are competitive only under unusual circumstances, like an anti-Democratic wave as we saw last year.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Christopher Perkins
I looked up his house on Fairfax County's real estate assessment site. It's assessed at $721k now, but he bought it for $920k in 2006 (when it was built), so unless he put down a big down payment, he's underwater. And you thought Sean Duffy had it rough.

Zillow
I looked it up on Zillow, which says it's now worth $780K.

Keep in mind, though, that VA-11 is the richest district in America (and 703 is the richest area code). $780K doesn't get you a palace here. I'm just a schmuck who lives in a cubicle and the value of my house--even now--has two commas in it.

(Re: Sean Duffy. Keep in mind that even if Perkins wins VA-11--Ha!--the cost of living is a lot lower for a metro Washington Congressperson than for someone from the other 429 districts.)


[ Parent ]
I sympathize a bit with Duffy
Well, only a bit--it's politics 101 not to complain about this sort of thing--but congresspeople are expected to a) live in their districts and not basically move to DC (or admit they did) b) not miss votes c) keep up the campaigning and outreach back home and d) maintain a patina of "average joe".  They also probably want to e) see their families.  That means probably two residences and a lot of travelling.  That probably stretches even a good salary.  I mean, there are (much) bigger problems people can have, but that doesn't mean it's not a stressful situation for some.

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]
Of course it's stressful for some people in congress.
But his wife was presumably still employed even when he was campaigning, his family has a vacation home, and he just received about an $80,000 salary increase simply by being elected to congress. I'm sure he's not rolling in money like a hedge fund manager, but to compare him to people that are literally struggling to pay the bills is ridiculous and pretty damn insulting. If he's struggling that badly, he can cut back on his expenses and/or sell his vacation home, or do something else so that he has more money coming in and less going out rather than whining, all the while receiving an increase in salary that is about 1.5 times the median wage in his state.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I didn't compare him to anyone
And yeah, there are bigger problems to have, but I don't like to dismiss anyone's problems because there are bigger ones out there.  However, he's a complete idiot to complain about it publicly or prolong the story by trying to get the video taken down.

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]
I should have said
"for him to compare himself to anyone..."

And no, I shouldn't minimize his problems, but a healthy sense of perspective is needed. I think Duffy lacks that.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
Actually you can minimize his problems.
He chose this path for himself. Now he has to deal with it. Sell his damn vacation home and cut back on non essential expenses, but I guess soon enough he won't have to worry about.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Er,
make that "works in a cubicle."

[ Parent ]
You live in a cubicle worth that much?
Must be a pretty fancy cubicle.

Male, VA-08

[ Parent ]
His house is 4,000 square feet
Maybe not a palace, but it's pretty damn big.

[ Parent ]
Oh, fuck square feet.
As a German, by now I'm used to dealing with feet, ounces, gallons and Fahrenheit. But squaring non-decimal units? Really?

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

[ Parent ]
I just think that square feet are probably the weirdest one
of the non-decimal metrics you guys still use. There's no REASON why anyone would ever use oz, gallons, miles, Fahrenheit inch or whatever, but hey, by now I have a feeling for how to deal with them and convert them in my brain.

But square feet? 30.48cm²? How much is 4,000 sq ft? Is that like a huge residence, or an average middle-class house, or a pitiful hut? I have no mental model for that.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)


[ Parent ]
When you're raised with a system
you get used to it and can picture the magnitude of the units mentally with ease.

Don't worry though, we use the Metric System as the sole system of measurement in the sciences.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
4,000 sq. ft. = 372 sq. meters


[ Parent ]
Not sure what your issue is
but decimals don't make a "square" unit of measure any more sensible or not.  Ten paces by ten paces at a right angle is 100 square paces, wheter a pace is a foot or meter or whatever.

A foot is just under 1/3 of a meter.


[ Parent ]
I mean squaring a unit that's measured in a system
based on tens and hundreds makes far more more sense than squaring something that's like 30.68 cm and probably like 7ish inch.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

[ Parent ]
Why?
You are just multiplying length of a house by width of a house.  The base or structure of the measuring unit isn't relevant to that.

I almost hate to mention it cause you really won't like it, but there is also something called "square acres".... :)


[ Parent ]
That's a pretty big house
Not a mansion by any means, but significantly larger than the median house which I believe is somewhere around 2500 square feet.

NC-06/NC-04

[ Parent ]
4000 is just a five bedroom house
85,000 square feet, now that's big...

http://www.latimes.com/news/lo...


[ Parent ]
George Allen is your stereotypical "accidental" racist
You know, one of those types who says crap and then pretends like they don't know what they are saying. I have a character that's a politician in a movie script I'm writing like Allen, except the characters a women. Politics is just full of material for good writing.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

New Virginia CD percentages
I rouged out the new Congressional plan on DRA and here's what I found using the VA Board of Election data for '08 and Dave's data (there were slight discrepancies so I wanted to have the actual '08 percentages per district):

VA-01
Old: McCain 51.4, Obama 47.7; GOP avg 55.7, Dem avg. 44.3
New: McCain 53.4, Obama 46.6; GOP 56.1, Dem 43.9

VA-02
Old: Obama 50.5, McCain 48.5; GOP 52.6, Dem 47.4
New: Obama 50.3, McCain 49.7; GOP 52.6, Dem 47.2

VA-03
Old: Obama 75.5, McCain 23.7; Dem 69, GOP 31
New: Obama 75.6, McCain 24.4; Dem 70.1, GOP 29.9

VA-04
Old: Obama 50.3, McCain 48.8; GOP 53.7, Dem 46.3
New: McCain 51.4, Obama 48.6; GOP 54, Dem 46

VA-05
Old: McCain 50.6, Obama 48.3; GOP 53.4, Dem 46.6
New: McCain 52.5, Obama 46.6; GOP 54, Dem 46

VA-06
Old: McCain 56.9, Obama 41.9; GOP 59.6, Dem 40.4
New: McCain 58.3, Obama 41.7; GOP 54, Dem 46

VA-07
Old: McCain 53.1, Obama 45.9; GOP 57.7, Dem 42.3
New: McCain 56.1, Obama 43.9; GOP 59.1, Dem 40.9

VA-08
Old: Obama 69.3, McCain 29.7; Dem 65.9, GOP 34.1
New: Obama 66.9, McCain 33.1; Dem 64.8, GOP 35.2

VA-09
Old: McCain 58.7, Obama 39.6; GOP 56.6, Dem 43.4
New: McCain 59.9, Obama 40.1; GOP 56.4, Dem 43.6

VA-10
Old: Obama 52.9, McCain 46.1; GOP 52.6, Dem 47.4
New: Obama 50.3, McCain 49.7; GOP 54.1, Dem 45.9

VA-11
Old: Obama 57, McCain 42.1; Dem 52, GOP 48
New: Obama 60.3, McCain 39.7; Dem 55.9, GOP 44.1

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05


So basically
The GOP managed to make VA-4 a tad safer for Forbes, VA-7 safer for Cantor (naturally), and VA-11 safer for Connolly as per the incumbent protection agreement.

Interestingly, VA-02 is still within reach. Then again, to make it redder would have required poaching southern Chesapeake turf from Forbes, making Forbes' district more Democratic, or moving further into Wittman's VA-01, making his district more suspect for staying in the GOP's hands. With Rigell, a first-termer in VA-02, he was going to get the least amount of help.

Meanwhile, Connolly was shored up by taking some of Moran's old areas and losing the most conservative parts of Prince William County to Wolf's VA-10, thus making that district more conservative. Since VA-10 is the best long-term pick-up opportunity for the Dems, this is unfortunate. When Wolf retires, though, that VA-10 will be a true swing district. Also, Bobby Scott's district is more contiguous now, even with it being based on water contiguity, than it was previously. It also incorporates the very black Petersburg into the district, which helped Forbes.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05


[ Parent ]
Well it sucks for me, I'm stuck in VA-10 after all, contrary to...
...Dave Wasserman's speculation that Moran's district would extend to the Beltway in McLean.

I'm in walking distance of Moran's new district lines, but not quite there!

But I can see one reason why they kept much of McLean with Wolf:  not only does he perform just fine there, but it keeps Barbara Comstock, who lives in Langley precinct, in his district.  She's the Delegate in HD-34 and wants to run for his seat when he retires.  Hopefully Democrat Pam Danner can derail Babs' career this November.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
I'd be surprised if Comstock can keep Rep. Wolf's seat red...
Unless Republicans are having a very good year.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Comstock's one advantage is the election calendar......
The fact that state legislative and local elections stand alone on the ballot this fall, with nothing federal or statewide driving turnout, help her.  We have to work harder to get our people to vote in this off-year elections.

Of course, Comstock barely won last time with a turnout model in a gubernatorial year that was actually worse for Democrats than what we should expect this fall.  That's how badly Deeds hurt us last time.

I'm told Danner is a top-tier candidate, but she hasn't filed yet, and I hope she runs a good campaign.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Well
McDonnell won HD-34 with 53% of the vote; Comstock won with 51%. She was also running against an incumbent and was outspent.

Plus her new district will be a lot safer, improving by 3 1/2 points.


[ Parent ]
Your cited numbers are right, but your take is incorrect......
It's a blue district.  Not dark blue, but definitely blue.  That McDonnell got 53% in a statewide landslide proves the point, his is the GOP ceiling in my district.

And Comstock's district won't be "a lot" safer, it's still Democratic-leaning.  

And "outspent" is badly deceptive, Comstock was only barely outspent and in fact raised and spent more than any Delegate candidate or incumbent except Vanderhye.

The bottom line is Comstock got swept in solely because of coattails and is permanently vulnerable even under the new lines.  She should be hoping for Wolf's retirement soon if she wants a shot at his seat before losing her own.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
I am a bit suprised by this map
Republicans didn't really make moves to shore their vulnerable people up that much, only a couple of points.  I have no idea why they left the 6th and the 7th so Republican.  It seems like it would have made sense to put Charlottesville in the 6th or something, and the 5th could then help other districts.  Hopefully their complacency comes back to bite them.

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08

[ Parent ]
The map I drew...
Would be much friendlier to them.

Fine by me if they don't want to do that, though.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


[ Parent ]
Where reps live is the problem
If Bob Goodlatte (VA-06) didn't live in Roanoke:

1. The 9th could've gone north, taking in Roanoke and areas around it.
2.The 5th could've gone further west and not ended up stretching all the way to Fauquier County near Northern Virginia
3. The 4th could've moved west into some of the 5th's old territory, allowing the 2nd to take parts of Chesapeake and become redder

The fact Bob Goodlatte lives at the southern tip of his district created problems.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05


[ Parent ]
I guess
I figured they'd cut off the northern end of his district and try to give some of it to Wolf and bring the 7th up into more of NOVA.  I haven't tried that on Dave's App yet though, so I don't know how it would work.

For some reason this plan just looks lazy to me.

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08


[ Parent ]
Gotta keep Cantor safe
You have to make VA-07 as safe as any district containing Richmond can be. because Cantor is the power broker in the Virginia GOP and wants nothing resembling a competitive race. And I can't really blame him--if he's on track to be Speaker someday, he deserves precedence over freshmen like Hurt and Rigell.

I do agree that half of Charlottesville should have gone to VA-06 to help Hurt without really bothering Goodlatte. You can't really do much for Rigell though, because of Forbes' Chesapeake residence and the fact that he's low man on the totem pole (freshman + no ties to the state legislature.)

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


[ Parent ]
agreed
I thought they would make VA-02 safer by moving Chesapeake into the district.  Democrats can still be competitive in VA-02.

[ Parent ]
That's not too bad
It doesn't completely take away Democratic chances of being competitive.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
numbers
Those Obama/McCain percentages don't look right. You have McCain's % going up in every district but the 11th. Your "old" %s mostly add to 99 and you "new" ones to 100, but that should only add half a point to McCain all else equal. He goes up by more than a full point in almost every case.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
VPAP also put a chart together
http://www.vpap.org/updates/re...

Unfortunately it uses McDonnell numbers, but the % change should be fairly similar

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08


[ Parent ]
nice graphic
Interesting that they did nothing to help Rigell and only a little for Hurt. Basically they just made it harder for Dems to pick up Wolf's seat after he retires in exchange for making Connolly completely safe.  

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Rigell doesn't really need the help
VA-02 was vulnerable because Thelma Drake was an awful incumbent. Rigell is a lot stronger, he's got deep pockets, and the Dem bench in the district got destroyed in 2009. Hurt is definitely a weaker incumbent than Rigell, but again, there's no Dem bench there.

VA-10 is rather akin to upstate New York. They're willing to vote for Dems for statewide office (they did so for Obama, Webb, and Kaine), but once you get down to lower-level stuff (Congress, state legislature), they're more Republican than the statewide numbers would suggest. Loudoun is probably the best Democratic "base" you can hope for in that district.


[ Parent ]
sound analysis
VA2 could go D in an open election or a wave or if Rigell proves to be a poor candidate.  

[ Parent ]
I like the upstate NY comparison
We suffer from a similar problem in our upstate districts - the lack of a base. The Syracuse district has one, and of course the Buffalo/Rochester districts. The 22nd is full of college towns that make it work along with the liberal Ulster Catskills. But while 19/20/24 are somewhat evenly split, with the first two in particular doing well for statewide Dems, they lack "base" areas. Little cities like Utica and Peekskill aren't enough.

29, Male, Dem, NY-20  

[ Parent ]
I suspect
having a bench is far less important in a House district than most other places. It's always nice to have someone that has experience in government and has run a campaign before, but the sheer number of people whose first job in government is a House seat is an indication it's not a deal breaker.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
VA-02 wasn't just vulnerable because of Drake
Nye only got 1% more than Obama did in that district. VA-02 was as much a case of Obama's coattails as it was a case of a terrible incumbent. Drake being a bad candidate helped, but this isn't one of those districts that Democrats can only win when the Republican incumbent is terrible.

Male, VA-08

[ Parent ]
VA 05
This map makes a Perriello comeback much more likely. I think it was widely assumed Charlotesville would be taken out of the 5th, and thus there was no way Perriello could win. This is really excellent news.

19, gay male, IL-7, MN 4 (college), Dem

[ Parent ]
Because of Dave's App
I used the actual numbers from the VA Board of Elections for the old numbers because if you use the tool coloring in current districts, they still are not exactly right. For example, VA-04 had Obama losing when in reality he won it narrowly. So I used the VA Board's real totals for "old Obama, old McCain" while using DRA for the rest of the numbers.

I figured someone would complain but if I had just used the numbers it produced for the current districts, I'm sure someone would have commented that Obama actually won Forbes' district. Moreover, the trends are evident despite the two sources for the data, which is the important thing.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05


[ Parent ]
Ouch
that really does look like it locks in 8-3 GOP, in a state that Obama will probably win by 5 to 10% next year.

[ Parent ]
I'm just wondering, are you seriously?
VA-05, VA-02, VA-10 and Forbes' districts all remain competitive and swingish.  

[ Parent ]
That Roanoke poll is one of the worst I've ever seen
I mean the "problems" PPP may or may not be having are debatable but to sample AA turnout at just 10% is just nonsense. The last two presidential exit polls peg it at 20% and even in 2009 it was 16% for goodness sake!

10% polled weren't registered to vote
joke

22, male, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Roanoke College
I'm an RC alum (class of 1997) and until recently I found their occasional polling to be very good.  The first poll they conducted that I remember was in 1994, during the Chuck Robb/Oliver North Senate race, when they gave Robb a decisive lead at a time when the other polls showed it even at best.  They turned out to be right as Robb won, much to my satisfaction (the first ever Senate vote I cast was in that race.)

I don't know what happened here (they didn't formerly poll elections nearly this far out), but they really fell down on this one.  African American turnout is not going to be lower than in 2009, with Obama atop the ticket.  And I doubt that nearly a quarter of Virginians are undecided between two recent statewide officeholders.

35, Male, Democrat, MD-8


[ Parent ]
Champaign Mayor
I grew up in Champaign (I currently live in MI-09).  While the UIUC campus is in between Champaign and Urbana, most of the college students live on the Urbana side.  Urbana has the reputation of being the more liberal of the two - it's more of the typical university town.  Champaign is politically more like the rest of downstate Illinois than like Madison, for example.

So the fact that he lost
is even better.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
thanks to rick scott
bill nelson is a lock

Rahm Emanuel to help Carol Moseley Braun retire campaign debt
Newt Gingrich tapped for NAACP press conference
Good move for both sides
While it's a Newt letter being used, the title is slightly misleading,

And so the NAACP has recruited another unlikely ally, Grover Norquist, to its press conference at the National Press Club this afternoon for a report titled, "Misplaced Priorities: Under Educate, Over Incarcerate."


[ Parent ]
Bean
She was perfect for a reddish upscale swing district even if she couldn't hold it in a wave. If Dems want to retake the new IL8 they probably won't be able to run someone much to her left.

41, Ind, CA-05

Certainly depends on redistricting
My main complaint with Bean is that she was caught napping and lost to a mouth-breather who probably needs to use a GPS to find his way around his new congressional office.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
If she's passing up this opportunity then she obviously didn't want to be
in Congress. Her loosing allows Democrats to worry about one less incumbent.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Maybe so
But my point is that we can create a district now which doesn't "have" to have a Melissa Bean-type.

[ Parent ]
And she probably realizes that
So this is just a natural progression for her....

[ Parent ]
Yes!
My point is that we can create a district now which doesn't "have" to have a Melissa Bean-type.

...and let's all thank the baby Jesus for that.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
others
But you also want to make some of the other suburban districts winnable for Dems. You might be able to make Bean's old district bulletproof by taking the bluest parts of Foster's old district, but then that district might be out of reach.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
It's surprising
she didn't either (a) join the Obama administration or (b) become a lobbyist. She must hate living in D.C.

[ Parent ]
Melissa Bean
I like her because, while I'd probably prefer someone to her left, she is a shining example of running the (mostly) right Democrat in a not-particularly friendly district and winning. I won't pretend that every district is up for grabs, but I think we become too narrow in our thinking. We need the resources to devote to winning such districts, but that's arguably the biggest problem we face.

In other words, if Barack Obama can get 46 percent of the vote in an R+10 district like Mike Pence's in Indiana, I don't see any reason why we should try to flip that seat. Maybe they really like Pence and/or were really just liking Obama at the time, but there's certainly no particular aversion to Democrats in the district. We need to ask for their votes and maybe, just maybe, they will actually give them to us.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
Agreed
I'm happy to support Bobby Bright in a R+15 district, while I would say we should primary him if he won a D+5. I would just rather not have a district where we need to run a Melissa Bean, since we control the trifecta in Illinois. Hooray for that, btw.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
New Mexico Redistricting
Putting Torrance county in Pearce's district is a no-brainer. I don't know if Martinez would go for it but it really is a logical plan that most courts would agree with as far as being reasonable. Heinrich is about 21,000 over populated and Pearce is about 15,000 under populated. Torrance is about 16,000 people so it really makes the most sense and Torrance borders Pearce's district anyway. It helps Pearce and with NM-01 going open this cycle it would likely swing it from about D+5 to 6/7 which is more than enough to keep it blue for years to come. It would allow Pearce to go from R+6 to 7/8 (which he'll need for being as conservative as he is) so it helps both districts and parties out.

Also as a side-note I have been able to confirm that the chickens in Heinrich's video kickoff are in fact his sons pets. That was not a prop. I am very excited for Heinrich's campaign. He will make an excellent Senator for years to come and is an excellent choice to fill Bingaman's legacy. Arguably the two best Senate recruits this cycle (apologies to Chris Murphy) have come in the last week from my native and adopted state!

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  


Recruits
Yeah, certainly on the up. At the very least things seem to be evening themselves out after the GOP got a head start. Murphy, Heinrich and Kaine are all top-tier if not the actual cherry. Looks like Shelley Berkley may well be next in NV. Some are suggesting Donnelly is better than 50-50 to run in IN. Hopefully John Sharp confirms a run in TX. Then we need to find someone in ND, MA and ME. I suspect AZ will be the last on the list for obvious reasons. TN and MS are unlikely to get anybody even semi-competitive.

[ Parent ]
Texas doesn't matter, and I'm not optimistic about North Dakota
Sharp will get killed just like any other Dem in Senate race, and since it doesn't look like Pomeroy will run, I'm not sure there's much of a bench in North Dakota. I'd put Texas and North Dakota with Tennessee and Mississippi.

But I think Berkeley will be great in Nevada, and I'm pretty confident we'll get someone good in Massachusetts, and hopefully someone good in Maine, to take on whoever might beat Snowe.

Yeah, Arizona...hard to predict that one.


[ Parent ]
TX
I don't expect to get close. But neither do I think it should be left on the table. I certainly don't think ND should be written-off. It isn't that Republican and they don't have another Hoeven either. Pomeroy wouldn't necessarily be the strongest anyway.

[ Parent ]
You may have some good points about North Dakota...
You're definitely right that I shouldn't be giving up on an open seat this far away from the election, so point taken.

But I'm giving up on Texas - no one can convince me its winnable unless PPP finds a Dem running close - which so far, they haven't. I think it's an utter waste of money.  


[ Parent ]
Thank you
I'd rather put more money in every other race than a penny into Texas.  I'm tired of hearing how the top of the ticket in texas can help us build the bench.  i think that strategy works better in abotu 40 other states than it does in Texas.

[ Parent ]
Why are you tired of hearing about it?
It's an open seat, and while they have a number of strong candidates, there's no clear front runner. It's entirely possible they could end up with a candidate that is far too extreme and/or damaged because of a brutal primary. Meanwhile, we could have our candidate start the general a little early.

The top of the ticket won't be able to seal the deal unless the Republican candidate implodes, but if Obama were to contest Texas, he'd almost certainly help our candidate. Rick Noriega managed to get 43 to 44 percent while being pretty open about his liberal stances--everyone has a right to health care, no limits on Roe v. Wade, and so on--against an incumbent when relatively few resources were spent on his race. Perhaps he could have won had the race been contested like those in other states.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
Nope, no Dem will win anything statewide in TX in 2012
Is there somewhere I can bet $$$ on this?

I'm tired of it because Texas is too big and too expensive to invest in with 100% of a zero return.  I don't care if the Republican primary has 500 candidates, the winner will win the General.  The Dem candidate could have started running in 1980 and still would have no chance in Texas in 2012.

Rick Noriega lost by 950,000 votes to someone with a below 50% approval.  He underperformed Obama (in percentage terms). No amount of resource spending could have bridged the gap.

I just have no idea what people see when they say we should contest Texas.  The burgeoning Latino population doesn't exist in reality as a voting block so its just not relevant yet, if it will ever be (I differ with most people in that I don't believe TX will move decidedly Dem 20 years from now).


[ Parent ]
Are we the same person?
This makes me feel like we are - exactly what I would say.  

[ Parent ]
On this topic, maybe
I'm less policy-oriented than most on here (its why I love the site) so we probably differ in some other way, but On texas, I'm glad to have a kindred ear to my views.

[ Parent ]
.
I agree on some points and disagree on others.

I agree that Texas is not winnable statewide for at least the next ten years.

However, I do believe that Democrats could come quite close to regaining the majority in both the Senate and House depending on the year and the quality of our rural candidates. One of the best ways to accomplish this is to compete federally so as to hold down the Republican margin.

Surprisingly, I do agree with you when you say that Texas won't be a Democratic state 20 years from now. It won't. It'll probably end up being a swing state and stay that way perpetually. Think of it like a larger version of Ohio except with different demographic drivers of its swingishness (Latino and AA voters instead of union members).  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.


[ Parent ]
I personally
think people are being a touch too optimistic when they say it'll be a blue state. Maybe it will be, but only slightly...in other words, very close to purple. Or, as you said, it'll be a swing state. But if that's the case, then the shift in our favor is dramatic. Which is kind of the point.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
It would be massive
Just to turn it purple. People keep saying it will happen but not just yet so it isn't worth the resources. Well, the problem with that is it won't happen on its own. It requires laying the groundwork by running serious candidates who likely won't win but can make things easier for those that follow.

[ Parent ]
You could argue
that there are small signs of it happening on its own. In the bigger counties, there was a clear movement towards the Democrats from 2004 to 2008. Perhaps that was mostly because of a home state candidate not being on the ballot and 2008 being a good year for our side, but it's still happening.

We could go back and forth with how worthy the state is of our attention and dollars in 2012, but before I (re)state my case, let me ask, when will we have someone with Obama's fund raising potential again? I have a hard time imagining a lot of money has been put into developing the party in the state, so getting things up and running probably requires a huge initial investment, as opposed to merely keeping things in shape, which would be a lot less. If that's the case, then there's probably no better time to do it than 2012.

In a general sense, I'd say that will likely see a nice positive return on our investment if only because we haven't done much of anything in the state. There are 600,000 unregistered voters in Houston alone. Certainly, not all of them will end up being registered, and not all of the ones that will be registered will be Democrats. But there's clearly a lot of unregistered voters that could be brought over to our side in just that city. Plus, there are a lot of people that don't vote but could and a smaller but still worthwhile number that are likely to be repulsed by the increasingly extreme nature of the Republicans. No, it won't be easy to accomplish, but the sheer number of voters seems daunting only because the state is so damn big. If you break down, it seems a lot more doable...because it probably is.

Just to prove I am not lowballing anything, let's take Bush's total from 2004:  4,526,917 votes. For the purpose of simplicity, we'll round, but round up, to 4,530,000. Let's say that there was a five percent increase from that total, adding 226,500, bringing the new total to 4,756,000. Then let's also take two percent away from Obama's 2008 total, 3,528,633, which we will round to 3,530,000. That chops off 70,600 voters, bringing his total down to 3,459,400. The difference between the two totals is...1,296,600. That's absolutely massive. It can't be overcome, right? Wrong.

Chopping off 70,600 voters from Obama's 2008 total essentially eliminates the gains he made in Dallas County from what Kerry received there. (It's slightly less, but not that much.) But let's take Obama's total from Harris County, 590,982, and then increase it by 15 percent. (Remember that this is the county where Houston is located.) That alone would bring him about 88,600 more votes, or about seven percent of what he needs. But given that Harris County is so big, it probably wouldn't be out of the question to see an even bigger gain--25 percent, perhaps. That would be a gain of about 148,000 votes.

But let's make this even more general. Let's say that in order to overcome the margin I described---1,296,000--we'd need 1,400,000 votes, just to have a little bit of a buffer. We can break this down into three parts: 15 percent convincing people that usually vote Republican to vote Democratic; 40 percent turning out voters already in the system; and 50 percent bringing new voters into the system. That last part is really important, obviously. Of course, just registering people doesn't mean they will vote. So if 700,000 of those voters are supposed to be new ones, we should set our sights on registering 1,000,000 new voters and turning out 70 percent of them. (This is made easier because a lot of them will be non-whites.) Starting in January of 2012 until October of 2012 would give us ten months, so let's try to register 100,000 new voters per month, on average. If we had a staff of 500 people that did nothing but register voters, that would require them to register 200 voters per month. Not per day, or even per week, but per month. If these people just worked Monday through Friday, that would require them to register 10 voters per day. Does that sound so damn hard? It would certainly be expensive to hire these people, but it'd clearly be worth it.

Well anyway, I meant for this to be short, and that certainly didn't happen. But despite the task being enormous and costing us a lot of money and resources, it looks doable. If we don't succeed now, we will be simply get closer and build for the future. It's an investment worth making.



"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
Perhaps
But growing Democratic strength in the cities is a national phenomenon. I was speaking more of boosting Hispanic turnout and share. That will only happen if when candidates actually show up.  

[ Parent ]
Of course.
The reason we would go after the cities is because that's the biggest source of votes and our area of strength right now. We'd need to build on that. In fact, I remember reading a statistic that about three quarters of the state lives in a Democratic-leaning area, although what that means is entirely clear. But there are huge portions of the state where pretty much nobody lives. We could basically ignore them entirely and not suffer much for it, I think.

But regardless of how look you at it, the candidates do need to show up. Let's hope they do.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
3/4
3/4 of the state lives in the triangle. All this means is that 3/4 of the state lives in the triangle created by San Antonio, DFW, and Houston. These areas are included:

San Antonio
Dallas/Fort Worth
Houston
Austin
Centroplex
Waco
Bryan/College Station

These population areas are not:

El Paso
Corpus Christi
The Valley

The rest of the state is made of vacant rural area and small cities (like Lubbock, Tyler, San Angelo).

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.


[ Parent ]
.
You have to remember that the only three Democratic areas in the state are Travis County, the Valley, and El Paso.

Bexar County, Harris County, and Dallas County are all swing. For all the votes that you could potentially add in those areas, the other side could add votes as well. This is why it is going to take at least 20 years for Texas to become swingy. The Latino vote share in the cities needs to increase before the major counties become truly Democratic.

Tarrant County is Republican.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.


[ Parent ]
Of course.
Nobody is denying that the other side could add votes as well. The point is that the vote rich areas in the state are, at worst, swingy, so we have a shot if we can pump up the vote there, increase slightly in a vote rich but smaller, still daunting county like Collin or Denton, and hold the margins in a place like Wise County.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
...
Collin and Denton count are among the largest counties in the state.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
Yes, they are, but they are still
smaller than the others, like Harris.

I think this is going to the topic for my next diary. I'd love to have your perspective if and when I make it, so stay tuned.

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
.
I'll never notice when you post it, so when you're done with it email me.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
Owens
Owens has done another proposal for Texas, which is the best map by far so far:

http://gis1.tlc.state.tx.us/

See "Owens Draft 2"

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.


[ Parent ]
The math is that Texas>purple requires .white electorate to drop to below 50%......
The Texas population already is majority-minority, but the electorate still is well over 60% white.  This is largely because so many Hispanics are not eligible to vote, partly from being disproporationately underage, and partly because a large minority of adults are non-citizens...and that some percentage are undocumented ensures Hispanics mathematically cannot approach census in turnout.

Whites go 75-25 Republican, per 2004 and 2008 Presidentials.  Nonwhites go 75-25 Democratic.  That would mean a 50-50 white/nonwhite electorate is a tossup.  But nonwhites won't stay 75-25 for us, that will drop, because the lion's share of nonwhite vote growth is Hispanics and maybe Asians who are sub-75 for us, more like in the 60s.
So 50-50 won't get us over the hump, we have to get to where the nonwhite vote is a clear majority.  That will take a looooong time, at least another generation.

In contrast I see Georgia as a lower-hanging fruit.  That's because the black population there is 30% and rising, and they are 9-to-1 Democratic.  Hispanic and Asian populations are rising even more rapidly, but like in Texas with Hispanics in particular the citizenship rate and voting participation lags badly for a long time.  Still, I expect Georgia to be purple by the 2020s.  As in Texas, the white vote is about 75-25 against us in Presidentials, and that was with Kerry and Obama whose draw should be the floor with Deep South whites.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
.
Agreed on all counts. Though Texas will be purple sometime in the future, perhaps 2035-ish, Georgia is definitely the better target.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
Georgia is easier than Texas, but
in both cases, were we to get 35 percent of the white vote, we'd almost certainly win the state, with a nice margin to boot. We could probably do it with as little as 30 percent, in fact. The difference is that we are right on the cusp in Georgia, but not so in Texas. Still, we aren that far away.

Of course, you could also argue that Georgia is a harder state to win, if only because we are close to tapping out non-whites, whereas in Texas, we could theoretically bridge the gap with growth composed entirely of non-white votes.

Even with the limitations you describe, it looks like we can make up the gap now. And the limitations, of course, will go away with time, as people age and become legal.



"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
That's a perfect point...
With the odd demographics coupled with the four new districts, a pair of ridiculous 2010 upsets (blake farenthold's seat is a gimme), and VRA districts, if the economy is below 8% and the Republicans choose a take-a-stand Goldwaterian candidate (say Bachmann, Gingrich, Palin), the Dems could be in line to pick up 6-8 seats from this state and if we find a Dem Senate candidate with some charisma and fire, while he may not win, both he and Obama could hold the race well-within double-digits and both would help the Dems cause in the House.

It wasn't that long ago that Texas WAS a blue state (tho it was before that phrase had that meaning).  Was watching the Clinton 92 election night last night and it was funny to see them talking about Texas as a toss-up (yes, i know that had to do with perot, but still).


[ Parent ]
The big question is whether Obama contests Texas.
At this point, that determines what happens more than anything else. I have no doubt that they will contest at least a few seats in the state, but if Obama decides to make a serious play for it, I can only imagine the target list for House seats would grow and that the senate race would be taken (more?) seriously. After all, why not coordinate as much as possible?


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
.
I meant the state senate and house, not federal.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
I get that you and I will disagree
about this, but let me make a few things clear, in no particular order:

1. I don't think it will be easy. In fact, I think it will be hard, but the difficulty in winning it, or coming close, is worth the payoff, if only because we will be building for the future.

2. I think it's a little ridiculous to say that there's no way that the gap could gave been bridged in 2008. He got kind of close considering that little was invested in the race. If the base in a non-bad or good year is more like 43 or 44 percent, then we are within striking distance. Is it that hard to imagine that actually contesting the state would have earned us a few more points?

3. Getting these voters to the polls won't magically happen. It will require a lot of work, but it seems possible. There's a huge block of voters that never seems to show up and another huge block that is waiting to be brought into the process. Within these at least to six million people, I think we can find the voters we need to win.

4. We will probably need to change a few minds in addition to bringing new voters into the polls. Certainly, some of them just won't budge, but it's insane to write people off without actually, you know, talking to them. People are a lot more openminded than we give them credit for.

Suffice it to say that if I am not willing to bet money now, but if certain things happened--the Democrats contested the state in a serious way, at the senate level and/or at the presidential level (and House level?), running ads and trying to mobilize voters--I'd be willing to place money on the final outcome. Maybe not in July of 2012, but in September, probably--basically, whenever I get a firmer idea of just what the overall condition might be like. Remember this conversation as we get closer to the election and as more information comes out, and if I am not broke at the time, we'll have ourselves a little bet...okay?

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
"a little bet"....I only bet big :-)
I'll take any bet on TX Senate race now or 2012.

1.  I just dont see how losing by 10 points or more each cycle is building for the future.  We've been doing that for voer a decade now.  Ron Kirk got 43% for this seat when it was an open seat.

2.  Bridging a 950K vote gap is quite impossible.  its just an insane amount of votes.  You either need to chaneg the minds of a huge number of voters or bring a huge number of voters into the process.  Getting 43% with 58% turnout would say to me it would have needed to be more the former than the latter, its just impossible to say he could have won.  A loss is a loss.

3.  I really think its over-estimated (a) just how big the pool of voters is compared to the estimated population and (b) just how Dem-leaning they will be.  I still contend that Latino's in texas will be more open to voting GOP as they will be first generation voters who have experienced a better life than they had (mainly in mexico) while living in texas.  People also discount the influx of white voters, which is still growing at a quite healthy rate.

4.  I don't think we're changing any Republican minds in texas.  have you ever met a Conservative Texan who wasn't "proud as hell to be Texan."  So we'll need to bring an insanely huge amount of new voters into the Dem folds from minority populations, which have shown in the past don't turnout anywhere near as high as whites on a regualr basis.



[ Parent ]
Texas
I agree that as of now this race should not be a priority for Dems in 2012. They should put up a serious candidate (John Sharp, Chet Edwards, Bill White, etc) as the race would be winnable if the Republicans nominate a nutball: White lost to Perry by 13 in the 2010 red wave, and a Christine O'Donnell type would likely do at least 10 points worse than Perry. But against Dewhurst or some other conventional Reep, the nominee should not expect any national party money. Better to spend that in MT or MO or NV or ND or even NE.

Over a long term, the Dems should be rebuilding an organization there, but even there TX should be a lower priority than NC, FL, AZ, GA, and maybe SC, all I think the Dems could realistically flip these states before TX.    

41, Ind, CA-05


[ Parent ]
Texas...What's a big bet to you?
$100? $500? $5,000? Like I said, as we get closer to 2012 and have a better idea of just what year it might be like and whether they will devote the resources necessary to win, we'll talk. Seriously. Keep that in mind.

1. Well, Kirk's performance wasn't that bad. I mean, it wasn't really great, but it could have been a lot worse considering Cornyn was elected statewide as Attorney General before. And since Noriega was a mere state representative and Cornyn was the incumbent, I'd argue that 43 or 44 percent is the new baseline, at least in a non-bad year.

2. That's absolutely false. For one thing, in a very broad sense, it's only impossible if there aren't that many voters left. There quite clearly are that many left, and many more than that. In November 2008, while there were 13,575,062 registered voters, only 8,077,795 showed up. That's almost five million voters that didn't turn out. Plus, there were about 4,000,000 more that could have been registered but weren't. Is it really that hard to find the voters necessary just amongst that group?

3. We will need to mobilize the Hispanic, but not just them. I thought this much was clear, but in case it wasn't, we will need to mobilize voters in the  big cities as well. There are 600,000 unregistered voters in Houston alone, for instance. If we can hold down the margins in the redder suburbs and boost turnout in the big cities, we can win.

4. I think you underestimate how small a shift would be necessary to cut into the Republicans' lead. In 2008, McCain received 4,479,328 votes. If a mere ten percent of those voters, or about 445,000, changed their minds and voted for Obama, he would have had 3,973,633 instead of 3,528,633. He's almost at the point of victory.I certainly wouldn't argue that we will flip that many voters, but a small shift can be pretty decisive if we target voters correctly.

And no, non-whites don't always vote at the same rate as non-whites. That much is definitely clear. But that's a separate issue. First we need to get these guys elected. Then we worry about getting them reelected.



"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
I feel like the reason your right is that its to much money with to much else at stake.
Sorry but every senate race is gonna count and there are almost dozen seats on our side that are probably gonna need at least some money plus were gonna probably have to go all in Nevada and Massachusetts along with an opening in Maine/Indiana if we can get one. Texas is just to much money and even when it looks like were close in polling we tend to get creamed. gotta wait for the demographics to get bluer before we make a play. That being said if Obama takes a shot at it because they honestly think they can win it I would'nt object.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

[ Parent ]
For TX
I think we need to win a few state races that are statewide before we think we are ready to jump to federal.  Obama should still throw $20 million at the state for door-knocking just to see what happens, anyway.  Governor 2014 should be a good race if we aren't killed by another enthusiasm gap.

[ Parent ]
The reason
I am eager for the Democrats to contest both the presidential and senate race in 2012 is that we might not have a money advantage like we will probably have then any time soon. We can use Obama's money to get to work on rebuilding the state party for future races in addition to hopefully get some positive results that year.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
DSCC Conference Call
I somehow doubt that this was as special as the e-mail made it out to be, but I got word of a conference call that was being held earlier this week. I wasn't able to be in on it this past Tuesday, but I would have liked to be, because then I could have asked about Texas. My gut tells me that, if the next few months look brighter economically, the Democrats will take the plunge and make plans to contest Texas at the presidential level. If that's the case, then we absolutely should be prepared to contest it at the senate level, too. There's no reason not to.

They've got a decent list of possibilities in North Dakota as well, and if Bresden were to jump in the Tennessee senate race, it should be interesting. The races in Massachusetts and Nevada will certainly be ones to watch, and we are bound to catch a break in at least one of Arizona, Indiana, and Maine, if not all three.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
I would not give Dick Lugar good odds of securing renomination
I could be wrong, given the lack of polling, but at this point I believe it would be absolute political malpractice for the Dems to not have a solid candidate lined up for this race. Mourdock seems very likely to be the R nominee, and he's got to be beatable.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Maybe he's not beatable, but
there are no indications he'll steamroll over the Democrat like Lugar would. That's an opening, if only a small one.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I actually agree with you here bj
It may even be more than a small opening - Murdouck seems like a pretty flawed candidate (particulary compared to Lugar)

[ Parent ]
further agreed
Murdock is statewide elected, but he's no Lugar.  There is an opening and weirder things have have happened.

[ Parent ]
Agreed with everything you said
And I'd add that the biggest problem Martinez has is that she probably doesn't have an alternative that anyone would go along with (Democrats won't allow a map that strengthens Pearce but doesn't let them strengthen NM-01, nor will they allow any type of map that weakens NM-01 at all; likewise, Pearce won't accept any map that weakens him, even if it does result in giving Republicans a better chance at NM-01).

Plus, like you said, a map that moves Torrance to NM-02 is quite a logical plan (from any standpoint, communities of interest, compactness, or anything like that) the courts are most likely to adopt a map very similar to that and Republicans don't really have the leverage to ultimately force the Democrats to accept a compromise.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
RE: PA-Sen
Ugh...can you imagine? A hack from the CoG and a Koch Brothers crony serving as the Senatorial caucus for Pennsylvania? Something I don't want to ever have to think about again.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

To be fair to Sen. Toomey...
He did author an op-ed saying the Planned Parenthood rider has absolutely no place in a continuing resolution this week.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Lets not be fair to Toomey.


19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Credit where credit's due, but...
He's still Toomey.  

[ Parent ]
Seconded for truth


[ Parent ]
Exactly
Knowing that Sestak could be in that seat with just a little swing in the results is agonizing.

From MO-3, college in CT-3, lived in NH-1, NH-2, PA-2, and MA-8 in the 3 years since.

[ Parent ]
Puts a positive light on the Senate, though
A rider amendment would fail miserably in that chamber with probably several GOPers voting against it with KBH, Murkowski, and ME twins.  (Snowe may suck now, but I'd hope as a woman this is where she'd draw a line.)

[ Parent ]
I actually have some resprect
for these four women for being pro-choice in a very anti-choice environment. It's kind of sad that their loosing that cohesiveness with the introduction of anti-choice Kelly Ayote.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
WI Sup Ct: a good take & good advice from a Wisconsite to Politico......
Here's the link:  http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

And here's what Ben Smith quoted from the Wisconsite:

It looks like Prosser has likely won with a comfortable margin. In my opinion, the left should turn its attention back to the recall efforts, but many on the left will resist that and want to keep the focus on the supreme court election. But barring another bombshell it seems that continuing to focus on the supreme court election is a dead end money pit, and I think they'd be wise to double down on the recall efforts. A few points:

1.) Kloppenberg really was a weak candidate as someone who had been passed over before and lacked judicial experience. You can watch her press conference and see that she looked totally unprepared for a close race and I listened to a debate and did not find her impressive at all. She wasn't a very good speaker and obviously owed her success to forces outside of her control.

2.) The left's decision to focus ads on ancient history involving priest abuse (which backfired somewhat when one of the victims came out in support of Prosser) came at the expense of tying Prosser, a former Republican legislator, to Walker. I would question that decision as it allowed Prosser to play the victim himself of a smear campaign.

3.) I still think that the fact that they got this far should be scary to Republicans and the left may still walk away from this vote debacle just as energized as if they had won.

I agree 100% with all that.  For all the frustration people understandably had, everyone completely overlooked the whole time that we ultimately had a bad candidate who ran a bad campaign, in a judicial race against an incumbent with arguably only questionable vulnerability, where even a good candidate with a good campaign would have an uphill climb.

In truth the Supreme Court race was more symbol than substance all along.  It was a morale-driver, not very important in its own right to the state's political future.  Even in the union-busting bill litigation, Prosser even in defeat would still sit on the court that decides the case, as Kloppenburg wouldn't have been sworn in for many months.

So keep the eyes on the prize, which are the recalls.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


I'd argue that it was more important...
Having a non-wingnut supreme court in one's state is probably more important than any other branch.  They can prevent extremism like we've seen in Wisconsin, and the WI Supreme court's terms are very long lasting.

[ Parent ]
The left will be demoralized
But that's why its good the petition drives got going so early on this cycle.  We really did luck out on the timing of that.

Personally I still think the recalls net +2 seats in the Senate, which is at least enough to filibuster any more crazy stuff.

Klop was the Coakley of Wisconsin sadly.  There were a lot of forces at work here so winning was always probably slightly longer odds than losing.  

Still, I think there is a lot to be learned.  For the statewide races in 2014, the WI-Dem party really needs to get work developing their strategy of maximizing votes in Milwaukee County, whatever it takes (GOTV, inroads into suburban swing voters, etc.).  If they don't Walker could end up re-elected in 2014 in another malaise election.


[ Parent ]
That isn't even remotely fair
Coakley was the favored candidate. Klopp did remarkably well, especially considering Prosser had already won 50% of the vote in the primary.

She lost because 1) turnout in Milwaukee was bad, 2) she didn't win Milwaukee by enough percentagewise, 3) she lost in the Fox Valley and Racine/Kenosha.  

All three of these translate into: industrial unionized areas aren't as motivated to do something about public union employees as we'd like.

It's a miracle Klopp got this close, but it's totally humdrum politics as to why she didn't win.  Eastern Wisconsin Dems did not turn out in sufficient numbers, and those that did didn't all vote for Klopp.


[ Parent ]
I agree with your comments except your third paragraph......
I think it's badly mistaken to extrapolate from the results that industrial union members aren't motivated to support public employee unions.

That wasn't what drove voting behavior in areas where Kloppenburg didn't do so well.  Mostly those are more conservative areas anyway, those are places Republicans can be expected to do well in any competitive election.  That's not about unions.  Milwaukee County just happens to have quite a few conservative voters in the suburban areas, and yes turnout might have not been there as needed in some quarters where we're strong, but that's par for the course for Democrats who just have a lot more infrequent voters than Republicans do.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
No, they aren't conservative areas
Those are Democratic areas, in the case of the Fox Valley (outside of Appleton) VERY Democratic.

I assumed Klopp was going to lose (before the Madison turnout was clearly huge) because she was not convincingly winning the heart of the Valley in Outagamie County (which reported sooner than Kenosha/Racine).  This is a heavily unionized, millworker, solidly Democratic territory... it can vote Republican wen turnout is poor or with a hopeless Dem candidate.

To win under normal turnout circumstances in Wisconsin a Dem must win the Oshkosh to Green Bay "metroplex" (not the rural areas in the counties, but the industrial strip of cities along the Fox River), and win the Kenosha to Racine strip (again, not the inland part of the counties, but the cities).

Along with Milwaukee, these are the blur collar Democratic base, which combines with the whiter-collar-ish Dane voters, and the less industrial La Crosse and Eau Claire areas and the blue collar Superior area.  Klopp did not do nearly as well as she needed to to win significantly (meaning more than Kerry).

Similarly, Klopp underperformed in Manitowoc and Sheboygan, where Dems should do no worse than lose by a few points (she didn't break 40%).  This area isn't as industrial as the Valley or Kenosha/Racine, but it does have similarities.

Going forward, Dems have to work on turnout and changing minds of the eastern coast of Wisconsin.  Obama will win every one of these areas (I bet including Sheboygan), but it is a matter of turnout and winning back some of the (mildly) Reagan Democrats who are gravitating to the Republicans over pocketbook issues.


[ Parent ]
Electoral history contradicts what you say about eastern Wisconsin......
Obama way overperformed and still lost almost all the southeastern counties.  He won Racine, Kenosha, and Milwaukee, and lost everything surroudning and in some directions beyond.  Again, that was with Democratic overperformance, the best we've done there in a Presidential in my adult life.

Kerry won narrowly and lost everything except Kenosha and Milwaukee.  Exactly the same result with Gore.  And these are guys who won the state.  And both guys lost Outgamie County, which you cite, by 9-10 points.  Obama won everything in the vicinity of Green Bay including Outgamie, but again, his performance is the extreme outlier for us.  Oh, and one more thing about Outgamie:  it's Prosser's home!  He was an elected D.A. and later state legislator there, not just a staid lawyer who made it to the judiciary.

Regarding Kloppenburg, everything I've seen in the results says that she did win the cities in these counties, but got slaughtered in the rural areas as happens to all Democrats.

I think your key statement that is accurate and applies to this race is that this area "can vote Republican when turnout is poor or with a hopeless Dem candidate."

Kloppenburg in fact was a sacrificial lamb who had never run for anything before and had a campaign staff and operation fit for a sacrificial lamb...that is, poor.  The one ad from her own campaign that I saw was good, but she and her staff otherwise were in over their heads and needed 3rd-party groups to carry her on their backs.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
No, you need to look at a map
I didn't write anything about southeastern Wisconsin inland of the coast.  Those are the Republican areas.

Yes, Outagamie is Prosser's home.  That explains some of his overperformance, but that isn't relevant to what I said.  To win under normal circumstances, Dems need to do better there.  If Prosser had been from Waukesha, likely Klopp would have won because prosser would not have had the strength in Outagamie.

Also, re-read what I wrote as you didn't understand the distinctions.  I said the Fox valley in Outagamie, NOT the whole county.  I said the cities of Kenosha and racine, NOT the inland parts of the counties.

You seem to be thinking about counties as if they were homogenous, and in the areas I mentioned they certainly are not.  The Oshkosh-Green Bay metroplex for example is a strip of heavy industry small cities, surrounded by acres and acres of farmland.  To win, Dems need good results from the Valley, and from the coast.  This offsets voters in the rural parts of the counties.

More broadly, the 1st, 6th and 8th substantially determine how Wisconsin goes.  They all lean red, but they can go blue, and it is all about the margins, and it is mostly about the blue collar, industrialized, city voters in these counties both turning out and also not giving in to Reagan Democratism.  Dane, Milwaukee and Wauwatosa/suburbs are all kinda straight forward.  The rest of the state is much more complex.  For Dems to win, there are a lot of Democratic areas within light red counties, like in the Green Bay-Oshkosh-Sheboygan triangle.


[ Parent ]
So what do you think this means for Scott Walker, if anything?
Is the sentiment against him not as strong as we hope it is?

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Personally I think there isn't much to talk about Walker.
Any recall of him is a looooooooong way off.

[ Parent ]
I mostly agree
The recalls should take priority. Keeping it as close as it was was a solid victory, and Dan Kapanake should be crapping a brick over the results (60-40 Team Blue in his district I believe, with an electorate that should be very similar to one he'd face in a recall). Just one little problem...

Kathy Nickolaus has been the county clerk in Wauke$ha since 2002 or so, and if she's been frauding it up for years, it's worth a full-on investigation to see that she's removed from office. It's one of the state's more populous counties, so Kathy's got a lot of votes to play with on her Excel spreadsheets or whatever the hell BS program she's actually using. This race's importance is rather 'meh' ultimately to me (as someone who will never live in Wisconsin, thanks to its winters) but letting the Republican commit voter fraud and skew every close race in the state is a massive long-term problem for the party in the state.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
The WI "prosser retakes the lead" diary has nearly 500 comments
With apologies to the many excellent posters here, I don't think it's even helpful to read any of them, as it would likely just send me into a funk for the weekend.

[ Parent ]
I'm amazed new comments kept piling up all day......
I figured the thread would peter out the same as all the comment threads peter out.

But no, it just kept going on and on.

I was depressed for a day, but by this morning I was OK.  Relatively quickly I was able to bounce back to realize emotionally, not just in my head, that winning this wasn't necessary to stopping union-busting or keeping Democrats motivated.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Here's some good news...
The Wisconsin Government Accountability Board will not certify the election results until there is a full and complete investigation of Waukesha County's ballot situation:

http://www.reuters.com/article...


Nor should they
Unlike you, I'm not claiming fraud (at least, not yet), but there should be a thorough investigation.  

[ Parent ]
I'm suggesting the strong potential for fraud...
There's a difference...  The ballot situation does need to be gone over with a fine toothed comb, though.

[ Parent ]
Yep, yep - absolutely


[ Parent ]
Wise move.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
There's a draft Vi Simpson
for Governor campaign on Facebook.

http://www.facebook.com/DraftV...

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)


Oh a video of Simpson
being mentioned on Maddow's show. I'm starting to sound like a fan boy, uh oh.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Texas Maps
I haven't looked at them too closely except in regards to San Antonio.

Pate Map, drawn by A.J. Pate. For San Antonio/Bexar County we lose one rep, Henry Cuellar. Charlie Gonzalez' district 20 gets shifted northwest and would include me. Not having looked at the numbers, but off the top of my head, it almost definitely knocks his district down from a safe Democratic seat. Charlie might opt to run in the new 28th and Ciro might run in the new 20th.  Lamar Smith would get a much safer district by cutting out Austin/Travis County and adding Gillespie. 2D, 1R

GRIT Map, drawn by Grassroots Institute of Texas. This is likely a Republican gerrymander map. The current chairman of the TXGOP thanked GRITS for helping him win the chairman's job. GRIT's website states, "The purpose of GRIT is to build a coalition of Conservative groups whose mission is to develop leadership and rebuild the Conservative infrastructure so as to get our message out to the voters and volunteers, and expand the number of Conservative public office holders."

Under GRITS map, I get thrown into the ugly 21st with Lamar Smith. Charlie Gonzalez' district expands a little to take in some Republican areas in NE Bexar County and actually slips into Guadalupe County. Ciro could probably get back his old as it goes further into South Texas. The new 35th would take in a slice of Bexar county and reach the Texas coast. 2D, 2R

MALDEF proposals, drawn by MALDEF. 1) It looks like MALDEF just drew maps that only show majority Hispanic districts. Charlie Gonzalez' district is probably knocked down slightly from a safe seat. Henry Cuellar and Quico Canseco get put into a district together. From the looks of the 28th, I'm guessing it takes in enough of San Antonio to turn the district into a majority Hispanic district. Possibly 3D, 1R or 2D, 2R

2)This one is more like the current lines. This one gives San Antonio a 5th rep. Again Charlie's district is made less safe. Canseco's district gets a lot less Republican by knocking out heavily Republican precincts outside Loop 1604. Cuellar takes in more of San Antonio. And whoever would run in the in 33rd takes in some eastern Bexar County areas. 4D, 1 R

Owens Map, drawn by (I'm assuming) Bill Owens. I think Owens and Pate have been working together on redistricting. Charlie's district moves northwest and makes it more likely Ciro would run in this district. Charlie would likely opt to run in the new 23rd which takes in a lot of his current district. Lamar's district gets more Republican. 2D, 1R

My least favorite of these plans is the GRITS plan. I like the Owens and Pate plans followed by MALDEF 2 and MALDEF 1.


.
The GRIT map is completely unconstitutional for the same reasons established in League v. Perry...


21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
...
Sortof. The map wasn't found unconstitutional, obviously, but it was ordered to be altered. The GRIT map is worse and would lead to the same thing.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
This is a cool way the WI 14 are fundraising for the WI Dem State Senate Committee.
T-shirts!
https://secure.actblue.com/pag...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


West Virginia Primary
Is anyone else excited for this race? I think it's in May, but there's been so little written about it in the media. The primary for the Dems is just a clash of the titans. You have the Acting Governor(former Senate leader) who is a Manchin-style Democrat supported by industry, the young female Secretary of State, the old school labor dem Speaker of the House, the State treasurer and the Senate president.

For people who've been following this race -
Who do you think has a shot of upsetting Tomblin in the primary, if anybody, and could the divisive Dem primary hurt our chances in the general? Also, does the other candidate in the Republican primary have a chance of beating Betty Ireland?


I'm getting the feeling
that the anti-Tomblin vote is too fractured for any candidate to beat him. Tennant would have been the best candidate to do so, but her fundraising has been anemic.

For the Republicans, I have no idea.


[ Parent ]
Not as anemic as Ireland's
http://electionreference.com/2...
I guess armand was right when he/she said that the WV GOP is structurally weak.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I used to think
Tennant had an even shot of beating Tomblin, but it turns out that Tomblin really has enthusiasm in his running and has outraised the whole field.  So much for the whole "seat filler" impression on him.

I don't have a stake or a definite favorite in this race, but I'm interested in following this anyway.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Truly
The Acting Senate President Kessler, the House Speaker, the Treasurer, the former SoS, the current SoS, and the Acting Governor.  Manchin's exit prompted a scurry from all sides to take the throne.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
It's an impressive field
Probably the most impressive primary field I can remember for a statewide office.
Tomblin seems content to ask voters if they are happy with the job he is doing (which is convenient because he has high approvals) leaving the rest of the field to try to find a base of support.
Thompson and Perdue are the only candidates who have done anything resembling that. Thompson has labor and Perdue is making a lot of noise on utility rates but both have a long way to go in order to pull the upset.

http://electionreference.com

Male, 28, R (don't worry I'm not here to fight), WA-2


[ Parent ]
FOX News poll has Obama at 49/47 approval, 44/48 re-elect
http://www.foxnews.com/project...

They find Huckabee barely leading the GOP primary, with only Romney, Palin and Trump also breaking double-digits. Giuliani and Paul are beating Gingrich. Obama beats Trump by 18 in a head-to-head.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


FL-25
Yea, Idiot is right.  As much as I love West in FL-22, I hate that we got stuck with this joker in FL-25.  I"m sure it's only for one term - I can't decide if I want him to quit or if I want him to be beaten in the primary.  Were I in that seat, I would not vote for him under any circumstances.  I might even seek the nomination of the Florida Whig Party just to run against his ass.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

Hopefully West will not be loved in FL 22 for too long
He is without a doubt the most disgusting person in Congress today.  War criminals belong in jail, not Congress.  And this is not withstanding his hatred of the "coexist" bumper stickers :
http://thinkprogress.org/2010/...



21,Democrat, NY-02, male


[ Parent ]
West
I'm quite proud of my congressman and his war record, thanks.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

[ Parent ]
Well that says something quite unflattering about you. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I agree.
When West says I'm a "fifth column", I think it's pretty reasonable response to think they are human scum.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male

[ Parent ]
two points
for DCCyclone

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

[ Parent ]
There are so many other veterans in Congress...
For you to be proud of. Veterans who didn't actually torture civilians or defend war criminals.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
It is interesting to me
that even on SSP, where everybody is usually pretty level headed and about as unbiased as you can get on a political site, where there was no support for Dems like William Jefferson, GOPers are happy to support criminals like West or Scott.  

[ Parent ]
Yup, and that speaks very poorly of Republicans broadly......
Republicans really have no moral compass whatsoever.  Violent criminals like Allen West, corrupt pols like Nathan Deal, and so many racists and religious bigots are just fine with them.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
...
That's really mean.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
It's fair
All I have to see is what kinds of characters they vote for in primaries and generals, and what they admit to believing in telephone surveys and focus groups, and that backs up what I just said.

Hell, even Donald Trump of all people is shooting up in primary polling now because of his racism.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
I'm not comfortable
with you painting with such a broad brush. Sure, there's that 10% of crazies, maybe even 20%, but we also have I'm sure a similar number of crazies on our side.  

[ Parent ]
.
His name is Dennis Kucinich.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
I Disagree completely
Kucinich is not crazy.  Repeat not crazy.  He is just easy to mock because he's ineffectual in his office and has all the political skills of a naive 14 year old.  He's not out there advocating for the abolition of private property or whatever quasi-left wing equivalent there is to war crimes, crony capitalism, and demonizing all your opponents as illegitimate (looking at you Bachmann).

Many liberals I know don't dislike him for his beliefs.  It's because his strategy is ineffective and his rhetoric self-defeating.

NC-06/NC-04


[ Parent ]
...
He saw a UFO. Remember?

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
.
And he's called President Bush mentally ill... If that isn't the left wing equivalent of Bachmann saying that there are duly elected Representatives that are enemies of the United States, you can shoot me.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
Attributing
an affliction to him, however stupidly, and claiming ludicrous motives are not the same thing.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
It's a lot more than that, and there's nothing remotely close to a moral equivalance......
Look at public opinion surveys, a large percentage of Republicans, routinely pluralities and in one PPP poll even a majority, admit to being birthers, which is simply racial code.  Frank Luntz had a focus group of likely Iowa GOP caucusgoers on Fox, and a majority admitted on camara, on national TV, to believing Obama is Muslim...again, racial code.  Look at actual campaigns and elections, and their crowds respond favorably to this stuff, with no dissent.  Sharron Angle airs a racist ad and then says "oh they might have been Asians, not Mexicans!"...and her side reacts favorably.  I already pointed to the Trump example, he's a joke and not someone who can't win their nomination, but he's surging by advocating birtherism.

It's quite clear it's not some small fraction of Republicans anymore with this mindset.  There is a very large portion of Republicans, certainly in the neighborhood of half of them, who are openly hostile to people of color and of minority religions, and aside from that very supportive of some of the worst moral characters they elect, such as Allen West and David Vitter and David Rivera (whose criminal activity, although still only partially revealed, was publicized in last year's campaign and still he runs away with it).  And the rest of the Republicans?:  they're conspicuously silent, no moral backbone whatsoever to speak out against these sentiments or these types of pols.

I'm a man of color and was a College Republican myself in the late 80s, and my experience there helped make me a Democrat.

There's nothing akin to this on our side except in local pockets of the South and perhaps in other small quarters.

If the best "comeback" anyone has more some sort of equivalence is Dennis Kucinich, that's weak.  I don't like his personality or politics, but there's nothing amoral about him.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
...
I'm moving on after this.

Seriously? Lets take the new Mississippi poll for instance:

Yes 46% want interracial marriage to be illegal, BUT 40% are FINE with it. You cannot just paint with such a broad stroke.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.


[ Parent ]
I didn't even remember that tidbit in my previous comments here, but you just further proved my point!.......
There is no "but" about those 40%.  That a plurality, and indeed a near-majority, think interracial marriage should be illegal tells the whole story.  They're not just uncomfortable with it which is racist by itself, they actually think it should be treated the same as they'd treat same-sex marriage!  That remaining 40% surely includes some portion who wouldn't make it illegal but are still very uncomfortable, i.e., they're still racist.

I will add that this example you cite has only fed my growing hostility during the Obama years.  That poll result is distinctly worse than I would have imagined in 2011, even among white Mississipians.

People keep coming out the woodwork like this, in data and anecdotes alike, that I never expected.

Another tidbit is when Trump when on "The View" and spouted his racist birtherism, Elizabeth Hasselbeck backed him up!

And GOP elected officials are increasingly emboldened to advocate or defend birtherism, without any pushback from fellow Republicans.

And don't even mention religion, religious bigotry in the Republican Party is considered perfectly fine.

My takeaway from the past couple years is that the Republican Party hasn't matured or developed any moral backbone at all.  This is the party whose Presidential candidates always have been expected to make the pilgrimage to speak at the white supremacist and religiously bigoted Bob Jones University.  And nothing has changed, it's just that more of their bigotry has become exposed because they think they can get away with it.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
This doesn't even include the fact that the Republican leadership does *nothing* to stop it, even when they know better
John Boehner, who even stated that he knows birtherism is bullshit, won't correct his own fucking party. They allow (and encourage) it to happen, but they'll always try to say "oh, he was born in this country, but it's not my job to try to change anyone's mind".

And to be honest, I'm not sure who is worse, the bigots who really believe this horseshit, or the leadership that allows it to continue for their own gain.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Definitely the leadership.
It's one thing to follow your own beliefs, however implausible or misguided they might be, but it's quite another for the most powerful person in one of the two major political parties to be unwilling to make a simple statement about what a load of horseshit this is. They can't control everything their colleagues do or say, and I don't expect them to agree on much, but it's beyond ridiculous Boehner's such a pussy that he can't draw a line in the sand about this stuff. What a pathetic asshole. It's a sign of how low the bar has fallen for me to respect someone from the other side when I find myself liking Marco Rubio (only a little, however) because it's willing to say the truth.

By the way, aren't you eager to hear what Donald Trump's "investigation" in Hawaii turns up? If he's really serious when he says that there are people in the state looking into Obama's birth, he's so far gone that he should probably be committed. He'd do far more good for this country to simply fly to a economically depressed area, divide up the money he's spending on this "investigation," and hand it out to random people on the street.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
He did say half of Republicans are amoral and the other half are silent.
You kind of proved his point with the Mississippi poll. I guess we can paint with broad stroked because the majority feels that way in Mississippi and a large proportion if not the majority of national Republicans believe President Obama is a Kenyan Muslim.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Wow, I can't believe you brought that up
That illustrates exactly how deranged a solid slice of GOP is.  And it would be one thing if it was just the voters, but the sickness has spread well into elected officials.  I used to vote for Republicans, but the GOP of the past is gone and replaced by a bunch of unethical nuts like West. You may love them, but I don't.

[ Parent ]
...Probably not the best site for this discussion
Although, too late, looks like.

I will say that I find it interesting that I know quite a few Republicans and conservatives, most of them from Oregon (not terribly easy to find Republicans in Prince George's County, which I believe is one of the most Democratic counties in the United States), and none (including the right-wing Christians) are anti-gay and none still supported President Bush by the time he left office.

Then again, young metropolitan Republicans are often a different flavor than old rural Republicans. The vast majority of the few people who live in Eastern Oregon are intensely conservative, both socially and fiscally.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


[ Parent ]
PGCo
Indeed, PGCo's 89-11 Obama margin was matched, county-wise, only by Bronx, NY (89-11) and Petersburg, VA (89-10; technically an independent city).

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Some OR Rs impressed me on a related topic
With their push for immigration reform, ref http://www.portlandtribune.com...

Despite conservative leanings, evangelical leaders welcome those who've crossed the border


[ Parent ]
Louisiana redistricting
Fleming attacks Boustany for supporting the senate redistricting plan that would have hurt Fleming's chances in his district so that Boustany would stay completely safe.

http://www.nola.com/politics/i...

Louisiana is such a weird state. Not much party loyalty on either side(the republicans let a Democrat remain as majority leader after they took control of the senate, I don't think that would have happened in any other state..)

Also important to note is that Boustany is much more influential than Fleming due to being a close friend and ally of Boehner. Fleming had to be really pissed to publically attack him.


Also
Fleming attacked an alternative plan being worked on by a Republican senator as putting two seats in danger for Republicans(his and Alexander's).

Redistricting in the South has been pretty crazy so far. Arkansas Dems shooting themselves in the foot and then fighting with each other, the MS situation and Louisiana.  


[ Parent ]
MRG
MRG is just horrible.  Not only their formula, but that they even did a ridiculous match-up between Zahra and Granholm.  Everyone with any sense knows that Granholm isn't ever going to run for any other office in Michigan.  If they wanted to be helpful, they'd have stacked Zahra up against actual court candidates of the recent past.

BTW, just anecodtally on the ground, it seems to me that Stabenow is looking more like a shoe-in by the day.  The state GOP better pounce very soon because the window's closing on them.  And, they won't be able to count on the "Tough Nerd" turnout in 2012.  They are going to need someone (or something) very exciting to compete if the Republicans keep on keeping on with the insanity they've been on as of late.

25, independent liberal, MI-08



Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?


About the Site

SSP Resources

Blogroll

Powered by: SoapBlox