Public Policy Polling (PDF) (3/31-4/3, New Hampshire voters, no trendlines):
John Lynch (D-inc): 57
Jeb Bradley (R): 33
Undecided: 10John Lynch (D-inc): 57
Ovide Lamontagne (R): 33
Undecided: 10John Lynch (D-inc): 57
John Stephen (R): 29
Undecided: 14John Lynch (D-inc): 54
John Sununu (R): 36
Undecided: 11
(MoE: ±3.5%)
John Lynch is nobody’s idea of a partisan progressive fighter, and we don’t even know if he’ll seek an unprecedented fifth two-year term, but after last November’s utter wipeout in New Hampshire, these numbers have to be heartening to any Democrat. Lynch faced a competitive race from John Stephen in 2010, ultimately winning by eight, so it’s pretty remarkable to see Stephen not even cracking 30. The best performance comes from ex-Sen. John Sununu, but at 18 points back and terrible favorables, Bununu doesn’t look so hot, either.
The obvious question to ask here is what does PPP’s sample look like, since they’re showing such a big reversal of fortune. It’s 35 D, 29 R and 36 I, which makes it much more Democratic (and much less independent) than the last two exit polls have shown: 29 D, 27 R & 44 I in 2008, and 27 D, 30 R & 43 I in 2010. However (and this is an important however), respondents say they supported Obama in 2008 by a 51-42 score, very close to Obama’s actual 9.6% margin.
In a number of states, PPP has been showing a 2012 electorate that’s quite similar to the 2008 voter universe, something that’s been greeted with some skepticism given what seemed like record-high enthusiasm for Barack Obama last time out. We’ll see if history repeats, of course, but PPP nailed things last cycle, and unless and until another pollster (who actually shows their work – I’m looking at you, Quinnipiac) comes along to contradict their work, I’m going to give them the benefit of the doubt.
The partisan breakdown is a bit too rosy. PPP should take off their “rose colored glasses” and reexamine this one. Normally I think that people bitching about them having too many Democrats is ludicrous, but this time I think they’d be right.
I hope pop also looked at the generic legislative ballot.
because I’m by no means proficient at this, but wouldn’t the fact that PPP’s Obama numbers so clearly mirror his ’08 victory be more evidence the poll is skewed? We’ve seen universally that Obama’s numbers have dropped, especially in New Hampshire. If he’s still holding that same margin, he’s either seen a huge turnaround recently or the poll includes too many Democrats, right?
Except 57% over Sununu. It wouldn’t make a massive difference to the topline anyway. I would also note their final pre-election day poll of the state last year had Lynch winning 53-44 (he actually won 53-45) with a 28d, 37r, 36i party ID sample which was obviously nothing like the real deal. Once again, they constantly hit the mark even when the crosstabs are off.
The Republican legislature is acting like a parody of what liberals think of when they think of what a legislature dominated by the far right. Every day they are in session generate either a new piece of hilariously impractical legislation or a freshl over-the-top offensive and/or braindead remark.
It would not surprise me at all that Lynch’s numbers shoot up as swing voters are in no mood to risk giving a rubber stamp to that bunch.
I think PPP is going to be the Ras of this cycle. Up to this point, they’ve done a good job, but now they are seeing too partisan of an electorate. I don’t think they are deliberately trying to engage in ‘narrative setting’ but I don’t think they are reading the picture right.