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April 5 Election Results Thread #6

by: James L.

Wed Apr 06, 2011 at 2:19 AM EDT

3:18am (David): Back to Eastern time here. (Nice try, Jeff.) I think we've done absolutely all we can do. I don't think we're going to see any more votes come in tonight, so it's time for a ganja break for the SSP crew. Tune in tomorrow!
2:02am: All of Dane County is reporting, having shown a 4.61% swing away from Prosser and turnout at 2.77x the first round. (This includes Middleton...which quite nicely gave KloJo more than a 1,000 vote margin).
1:48am: (jeffmd here. CENTRAL TIME WILL DESTROY YOU!) Here's where we're at: there are, per the AP, 34 precincts outstanding.  However, Dunn County has all precincts reporting on it website, and it helps KloJo close to a 356 vote deficit.  Crawford and Dane counties are completed reported.

So precinct wise, here's what's left:

6 in Ashland
1 in Jefferson
1 in Juneau
12 in Milwaukee
8 in Sauk
1 in Taylor

Jefferson and Taylor are telling us that their last precincts won't be reporting until tomorrow.

Lake Mills town in Jefferson County gave Prosser 56.1% in the first round, and we've seen a 9.32% swing away from him tonight.

Maplehurst in Taylor County gave Prosser 42.9% of the vote in the first round, and we've seen a 5.4% swing towards him tonight.  Overall, I'm guessing that Jefferson and Taylor will overall be about a wash.  All the other counties listed favored KloJo tonight.
2:40am: My chart's got more significant digits than Picasso got paint!
2:24am: New chart - KloJo won these counties by 62-38 so far tonight:

County Region Percent In Total Kloppenburg Prosser K% P%
Ashland Rest 0.785714286 22 28 2504 1037 70.71% 29.29%
Sauk Dairyland 0.794871795 31 39 7625 6166 55.29% 44.71%
Crawford Dairyland 0.925925926 25 27 2428 1689 58.97% 41.03%
Dunn Rest 0.95 38 40 4649 3790 55.09% 44.91%
Juneau Rest 0.965517241 28 29 2546 2337 52.14% 47.86%
Taylor Rest 0.966666667 29 30 2266 3602 38.62% 61.38%
Milwaukee Milwaukee 0.975308642 474 486 125090 95129 56.80% 43.20%
Jefferson Rest 0.975609756 40 41 9365 12860 42.14% 57.86%
Dane Madison 0.995967742 247 248 133513 48627 73.30% 26.70%

2:21am (DavidNYC): Prosser's lead down to 585 votes. 34 precincts left.

Fresh new thread. (How did I get here?)

Wisconsin: AP | Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel
Chicago: AP
Nevada: Clark County

James L. :: April 5 Election Results Thread #6
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Fingers Crossed
I'm sure Klop can pull this off!

Male 21 Dem Ca's 1st  

Does she call herself that?
I'm pretty sure I wouldn't . . .

[ Parent ]
no I was just tired and wanted to shorten it down

Male 21 Dem Ca's 1st  

[ Parent ]
She also probably doesn't call herself Klo-Jo :)
Bloggers are allowed to take artistic license. :)

[ Parent ]

Male 21 Dem Ca's 1st  

[ Parent ]
I'm feeling like an old hand
at these close elections. One lesson to take to the bank is that being ahead on election night (dawn?) is a Good Thing.

Let's keep counting folks!  

Well, here in Nevada...
It's over. Even though 2 Las Vegas races had margins under 100 votes, no one looks to be calling a recount or suggesting electronic voting chicanery. In the mayoral race, Chris G beat Larry Brown by 15 votes to secure the #2 spot in the June runoff. And in LV Ward 3, Bob Coffin finished ahead of Adriana Martinez by 49 votes (though both will face each other again in the June runoff).

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
585 votes to go. I think we can make it.
I find my statistical prediction of 50.06% for generic D in this race looking better and better.

Looks like we're gonna make it
We know there are 8,000 absentees in Milwaukee County being counted as we speak; those alone should break for Kloppenburg by enough to erase Justice Prosser's lead. Then there's that Dane County precinct that has yet to come in. Six precincts in Ashland County, supposedly, though they may be empty. Two more supposedly in Crawford County, which also delivered big for Klop. Eight more supposedly in Sauk County, where Klop did very well. One more in Juneau County, a swing county Klop narrowly won. And just one precinct yet to report in Jefferson County, which Prosser carried.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

Dane and Crawford empty per county results
Jefferson estimated +100 Pross from precinct extrapolation

[ Parent ]
Who else has uncounted absentees?
Until we know, that "8,000" figure has very little meaning.  

[ Parent ]
Very true
I'm also nervous about absentees since college students and minorities would be less likely to get them for an off-year election

[ Parent ]
Absentee=Early votes
In Wisconsin we have in person absentee voting instead of early voting. A lot of "absentee" votes are just early votes.

[ Parent ]
Did either side push early voting this year? If not, I would think that early voting might be somewhat more suburban than the county as a whole, but I'm not really familiar with MKE.

17, male, (left of) Dem, OH-9

[ Parent ]
Couldn't say about MKE
It was big in Madison. Mostly because the city/county building is a block away from the capitol, and that made it super easy: Come for the protests! Stay to vote early for Kloppenburg!

[ Parent ]
That remains unclear.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Lol doesn't mean I'm not nervous about it
Also the distribution of tonights results suggest that's likely. Look at MKE results

[ Parent ]
Maybe this is too early...
But this seems like it should be in the bag for Klop. She needs to make up ~600 votes, so with a reported 30k outstanding, she needs 51% of the remaining vote. Out of 34 remaining precincts, only two, one each in Taylor (61-39) and Jefferson (58-42) are in Pross counties. Klop still has six precincts in Ashland (71-29), one in Dane (73-27), and more in the pipeline. Plus, Madison apparently has a few thousand absentees.

The only big question mark is the 12 Milwaukee precincts -- anyone know where those are? If at least a few of them are in the city, I think this is over; if they're predominantly suburban, Pross could sqeuak this out.

17, male, (left of) Dem, OH-9

are in Milwaukee, not Madison, sorry.

17, male, (left of) Dem, OH-9

[ Parent ]
I'm hearing Crawford is done
empty precincts I guess.

No one seems to know if Milwaukee and Dane are done or not.

I'm watching Ashland and Sauk, we might be able to make up the difference in those two alone.

Dane is done
County website says complete with same total as AP

[ Parent ]
Dunn is all in as well.

[ Parent ]
Wisconsin recount law

Definitely going to automatic recount.

The SoS is a Dem, Doug La Follette.

Secretaries of state don't do elections in WI
They're handled by the Government Accountability Board.  

[ Parent ]
All 6 board members were appointed by Doyle in 2006. Should be OK there.

[ Parent ]
It's a non partisan board
Or perhaps more accurately a bipartisan board composed of three retired judges from both parties. We can expect fairness, at least, but not a thumb on the scales.

[ Parent ]
> fairness
which is how it should be.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
That was my point.

This isn't Florida 2000 or Ohio 2004.  

[ Parent ]
related to Robert, I assume?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami."

[ Parent ]
Like great-great nephew or something. Before he ran the first time, he changed the spelling of his name to add a space so it would match the way the actual La Follettes spelled it.

[ Parent ]
His great-grandfather was Bob La Follette's brother

[ Parent ]
Of votes cast tonight...
I think the remaining precincts in Ashland and Sauk counties, and Milwaukee County if those precincts aren't either empty or standing in for early/absentee votes, should push Klop over the top.

Either way, I feel things have calmed down enough now that I'm going to go take a nice hot shower and make myself some goddamn quesadillas.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

Quesadillas are delicious.
Darn, now I want some.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
It's a little taste of home
Not as much variety in shredded cheese blends, tortillas, or salsa Down Under, but I make it work.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Dunn done (sorry)
The county website shows that the county is apparently done.  Kloppenburg added 169 votes to her margin there.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

What about Milwaukee?
If those 12 are empty this is going to get interesting.

[ Parent ]
Mayor Barrett said they're hand-counting 8,000 votes...
That haven't been added to their vote totals yet.

No word since then, or if there was, I missed it...

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
With Dunn
Looking at the AP numbers and adding in the Dunn totals (+286 Prosser and +515 Kloppenburg) it looks like Kloppenburg is only down 356.

Or am I wrong?

[ Parent ]
Happy dance!
Share photos on twitter with Twitpic

Share photos on twitter with Twitpic

Dems keep the supermajority in Henderson, and we may sweep 5-0 if Sam Bateman wins the June runoff! :-D

Share photos on twitter with Twitpic

Chris G makes it to the June runoff in Vegas!

Share photos on twitter with Twitpic

And guess who was spotted at Adriana Martinez' party tonight! (Hint: Think Nevada's top cop.)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

So, does Chris G have any chance of beating Goodman II?

[ Parent ]
Look at the results. Carolyn Goodman started last night at 40%, then slipped to 37% once all the votes were counted. And considering the increasing anger towards her from both the right (over unions and her as Oscar's wife) AND the left (over the SB 283/DREAM Act brohaha, being in the pocket of corporate developers, and her as Oscar's wife), Goodman won't magically pick up the 13% more she needs in a flash. It certainly won't be easy, as the big money power players look to be coalescing behind Goodman and Nevada politics is dominated by these very players, but Chris G is one of those rare folks (along with Dina Titus and a handful of others) that manages to survive, and ultimately thrive, despite them.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Great Job on a loooong night guys
seems like 32 of the 34 districts favor our team. We should end up about 2500 votes up. Hope that will survive the recount.

+233 Klopp

585-233 = 252 votes to go...

AP Done for the night

Time for bed.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

252 votes to go
Counting Dunn County.

I think we can get that from Ashland and Milwaukee. Absentees/earlies should hopefully give us a cushion.

252 or 356?
Why does the front page say 356?

[ Parent ]
I might have done the math wrong.
Way too tired. Let's see... yep, I was wrong.

[ Parent ]
Where does the 356 come from?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Dunn added +229 for Kloppenberg
So, 585-229=356.

28, Male, MI-09 (home), MD-07 (school)

[ Parent ]
Dunn County's website has full count
And Kloppenburg netted approximately 230 votes there.

[ Parent ]
No clue
And I'm no math expert, but 585 - 233 is 352. That is somewhat close to 356 I guess.

[ Parent ]
Milwaukee J-S: 1/2 of Middleton still out

That should give +1700 Klopp; question is if it's counted yet or not. Very confusing, hopefully not included yet.

I thought...
We already determined that number is included in the AP Results?  Is that not actually the case?

[ Parent ]
That's the question
Looks like it's included in AP, but J-S says it's not. Weird.

Also, supposedly 25-30,000 votes left. Good news for us if it's true (since it means Ashland/Milwaukee aren't empty!)

[ Parent ]
That was before Eu Claire reported...., it's less than that...

[ Parent ]
That was reported earlier...
...and yet Dane is fully reported never having changed... So, who knows!

Prosser came out and said that they were confident, but still had no idea what was really out and what was empty or not.  Everything they think is out is about 50/50 for them, so they think they should be OK, but they weren't declaring victory.

[ Parent ]
Missing Milwaukee County Wards
Supposedly they're all in the City of Cudahy. If someone wants to make projections from the primary results based on that info, go right ahead. I'm going to bed.

Cudahy went for Prosser by 55% in the primary.

[ Parent ]
There are 7 precincts in Cudahy.
Prosser got 1304 votes out of 2321, so 56%.

That's slightly more than the 54% he got countywide.

But that still leaves 5 precincts elsewhere. And where did you get info about Cudahy?

[ Parent ]
They are saying St. Francis is the other one...
It's rumored on twitter...

[ Parent ]
If it's a uniform swing...
That should put Kloppenburg in the lead, but only by triple digits, according to my sketchy journalism-major (lack of) math skills.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Certainly hard to imagine more than a triple digit lead at this point.
[ Parent ]
I think after Ashland and Sauk counties report...
It could be over +1000 for Kloppenburg, total.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
If true, Cudahy can't possibly have 12 empty precincts

[ Parent ]
Milwaukee is the big question mark
Are there actually any people in those 12 precincts?  Otherwise, looks like Ashland and Sauk are Kloppenburg's last chances to make up the 585 votes, the rest should be a wash.

12 remaining in Milwaukee
My local news station (TMJ4) reported that the remaining 12 Milwaukee precincts are indeed NOT empty. They have been counted but they have not been sent to the AP. Hope that helps.

As someone that's only been watching this race on the margins, in a kind of summary, could someone tell me why this was so close?  From the outside looking in, a person like myself thought this would have just been a referendum on Walker, but it appears to be much more than that.  Is it that Dems simply haven't had enough time to organize?  What are the implications about a much larger gubernatorial recall with how this turned out?

25, independent liberal, MI-08

It's not easy to recall a judge
Partisan affiliations aren't listed and most people will just naturally be inclined to vote for the incumbent unless they feel like his term truly deserves to be cut short.

This wasn't supposed to be close at all. Justice Prosser was supposed to romp to victory. Gov. Walker and his goons in the Wisconsin Senate made it close, and we're very grateful because the Democrats took Walker's old job, with Cty. Exec.-elect Abele winning by a crushing 22-point margin in Milwaukee County, and appear to have flipped the 3-4 Republican majority on the Wisconsin Supreme Court to a 4-3 Democratic majority, though we're still waiting on those precious precincts in Ashland, Sauk, and Milwaukee counties to break our way.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
It looks likes Madison was amped up to turn out for Klop but Milwaukee failed to. Not sure why. If Milwaukee had seen a Kerry-Bush '04 result, we'd be celebrating a win already.

I also think, from what people have said (I'm not from a state that elects judges, that defeating incumbent judges is a difficult task to pull off.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

[ Parent ]
MetroGnome I'm afraid you were just looking at it all wrong......
We had this very debate in SSP comment threads in the last couple days before this election.

One commenter had your perspective, thinking Kloppenberg was a slam dunk.

And some of us pushed back that, no, this was no better than a tossup for us.

You have to keep in mind this is a judicial race, where because by nature it's not nearly as political an office, swing voters in particular are much more reluctant to vote out an incumbent than for a legislative or executive office.

And then throw in that Prosser is the incumbent and no one except diehard liberals had a problem with him just 2 months ago.  This wasn't like the 2010 wave where hostility to Dems built up over many, many months.  When you're trying to unseat anyone who remains popular just a couple months before the election, that's a steep hill to climb.

And then on top of that this is a special election, and in spite of how great turnout was on both sides yesterday, we're going to have depressed turnout among some Democratic-favoring demographics.  I can imagine some minorities and poor people just can't get ginned up for this kind of election, even with all they see in the news.

Marc Ambinder, who is one of the very few political analysts whose analysis I largely trust, tweeted what I share as the proper perspective:

There is spin and there is truth. This close a contest with this high a turnout in that state -- augurs good things for Dems.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Assuming the activists don't get discouraged,,,
This contest was our toughest challenge... and certainly would have been our biggest reward had we pulled it off (seems unlikely at this point).  I hope the folks on the ground see it the same was as Ambinder.  Personally, all I can see is another painful loss.. another race we should have won with dire consequences for losing.

[ Parent ]
I wouldn't get down just yet...
There are still quite a few stray precincts out that favor Kloppenburg, as well as a number of provisional ballots. I'm thinking she pulls this out by just under 1,000 votes by the time the count is down.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
You are quite the optimist!
I hope you are right, but provisionals are very rare in WI, which has same day registration.  I certainly hope that those who DID cast provisional ballots are being called in an hour or so.  They have to be verified by end of business today to count.

We don't know where those outstanding ballots form MKE are coming from.  If they come from where they say they are coming from (the suburbs), it will hurt not help us.  I don't think we are going to make it.

[ Parent ]
Probably not many provisionals...
But here's the thing about those Milwaukee County precincts - they're not terribly likely to break for the Republican in a two-horse race. Justice Prosser carried the county in the primary and slightly overperformed in the precincts reportedly yet to be totaled. He had a pretty massive swing against him on Election Day, though, with Kloppenburg winning the county with more of the vote than Hizzonor did in the primary. If that swing is anywhere close to uniform, Klop should actually net a few hundred votes.

Plus there are the outstanding precincts in Ashland and Sauk counties, which have not reported being done with the count, AFAIK - meaning those probably aren't empty precincts. Those plus one precinct in Juneau County are supposedly still to be counted. Prosser is waiting on two precincts from Jefferson and Taylor counties.

It's going to be close, but I'm thinking Kloppenburg wins it. We'll see.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Meant "done" instead of "down" obviously. Getting late here in Auckland, but I want to stay up to see what happens in the morning up in the Badger State. Hoping for good news.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
I think what you "see" is mistaken given Abele's blowout win and some smaller wins across the state last night......
Those small wins include a couple county exec wins in Republican-leaning areas, mentioned in the results threads but don't ask me to find it, they're buried among what must be a thousand comments total over 6 or 7 threads!  But I distinctly remember them mentioned in the threads by commenters as Dem upset wins.

And here's DailyKos on a little more:

These things are small tea leaves, but combined with Abele's high-profile blowout win, they add up to a significant comfort for me about last night.

Honestly in a partisan election the hardest thing to do is knock out an incumbent judge, because no matter how much it's sold as a proxy for a partisan fight, there are more swing voters who refuse to see it that way for a judicial race than will see it that way for a legislative or executive race.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I understand...
...but will the folks on the ground in WI see it that way, or will they do what liberals typically do when they lose close elections--give up.

[ Parent ]
Isn't it
a little early in the morning for trolling?

18, Dem, PA-7

[ Parent ]
Be nice.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
I'm pretty devastated, even though I knew we had an uphill climb.  We got to the point late last night where everyone was predicting a win for us, and then the bottom fell out at the last minute.  As a Democrat, I guess I'm used to it, but it is still devastating.

Yes, Kloppenburg still may win, but it's going to take a little divine intervention at this point.  I don't see how she makes up those numbers, especially since the Milwakee precincts are supposedly in the suburbs.

[ Parent ]
The media narrative is in our favor (examples)......
I mentioned in another comment that Amy Walter retweeted Dave Weigel's declaration of an Abele victory, with Walter adding commentary that Dems made the race a referendum on Walker.

I mentioned in yet a different comment that Marc Ambinder tweeted this:

There is spin and there is truth. This close a contest with this high a turnout in that state -- augurs good things for Dems.

And now this morning Chuck Todd's MSNBC "First Read" crew writes this:  

In the two Wisconsin races that were viewed by some as referendums on Gov. Walker, Democrats won one of them, and the other is too close to call (which actually is already a "victory" for Dems).  In the contest to replace Walker as Milwaukee County executive, nonpartisan (but Dem-leaning) Chris Abele trounced Republican Jeff Stone.  Abele aired a TV ad comparing Stone to Walker (Stone was quoted as saying that he and Walker share "similar aspirations," while Walker had praised Stone).

...and also this:

Yet no matter the eventual outcome of the Prosser-Kloppenburg race, Democrats appear to have overperformed in these two contests.  Indeed, Yang notes that Kloppenburg seems to have benefited from a very high turnout.  In the liberal bastion of Madison, officials said turnout was about 70%, with Kloppenburg winning 73% of the vote there.  In Eau Claire County -- where turnout was so heavy that polling places ran out of machine-readable ballots and had to use hand-counted ballots -- she won 58%.  And in left-leaning Milwaukee County, where turnout was also driven by the county executive's race, Kloppenburg won 57% of the vote.  Bottom line:  Walker has polarized the state and could be a potential problem with swing voters.

Make no mistake, the media sees Democrats as the winners last night whether Prosser survives or not.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I think there's an excellent opportunity to frame this positively...
Considering Cty. Exec.-elect Abele destroyed his Gov. Walker-allied opponent by 22 points.

"We took back Scott Walker's old job, and now we're coming for his new job!"

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
What was with the vote splitting in that race?
Lots of Abele/Prosser votes in that one... That was the surprise that killed us.  I think our GOTV team thought there would be more coattails.

[ Parent ]
The vote-splitting wasn't much and makes perfect sense to me (numbers)......
Abele won 61-39.

Kloppenberg carried Milwaukee County 57-43.

That's 4% who split their tickets and went for Prosser.

And that fits my argument that there are some share of swing voters who are very reluctant to treat a judicial race as a proxy for a partisan fight, no matter how much it's sold that way.

I argued here the last couple days before the election that I wouldn't be surprised if Abele won but Kloppenberg lost.  And the county results fit my expectations.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I wouldnt be too thrilled about that win
My understanding is that the County is usually reliable Blue territory and that Walker's County Ex wins there was a bit of an upset. The majority of the Govt there are Dems and it looks like it reverted back to form. The reality is Walker holding the county ex post was the exception.

I think what Prosser winning will show that the anger in Wisconsin over Walker's moves is not as great as most people on the Left thought.

To me this does not bode well for sucess of the recalls.

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:

[ Parent ]
Your "understanding" (i.e, your laughably weak spin) is wrong......
Walker won his county exec races by big margins, there was no upset.  He won 55% in the 2002 special, and then 57% in 2004 and 59% in 2008.  The previous elected incumbent had resigned in scandal (an acting interim who didn't run in her own right succeeded him), and Walker took advantage of the opening and ran a good campaign.

The Prosser race always was his to lose, Kloppenberg was lucky to be in the right place at the right time just to have any shot at all.

The smartest people in the political media, people like Chuck Todd and Marc Ambinder, realize this as I posted in another comment here.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
What spin?
I thought Walker was the 1st Republican EVER elected County Ex. I thought all the other Countywide elected officals (like the Sheriff & DA) are Dems and most of the Board of Supervisors are Dems. Am I mistaken in this?

Bottom line was that conventional wisdom was that Walker's budget awoke a sleeping giant, turned most voters against him and that this judicial election would be a referendum on Walker and his policies.

If Prosser pulls it out (which it looks like he is) what does that say?

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:

[ Parent ]
Aren't the recall targets
In places where Dem turnout here was high? We shall see.

[ Parent ]
St. Croix County on the MN border
voted 51-49 Prosser, it was 54-45 Bush. That's in Sheila Harsdorf's district.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami."

[ Parent ]
Think Paul Hackett
By most indications it wasn't a slam dunk. Indeed, before Walker it might well have been a case of flipping the results in the big two races, 60-40 here and a tie in the County Executive election.

[ Parent ]
Well, I was arguing that it wasn't a slam dunk...
...but, the folks on the ground probably thought it would be.  I hope the don't get discouraged.  Losing by a couple of hundred votes would suck big time.

[ Parent ]
What's your basis for claiming to know what "folks on the ground" expected???......
Serious question.

Are you just speculating?  Honestly it sounds like it, I haven't seen you cite sources on the ground in your comments.

All the tea leaves added up to calling the Prosser race a tossup.  And the results proved exactly that, only more so.

Was it you who cited a bunch of tea leaves from NRO online commentary to make you believe Prosser was a goner?  If that's what formed your belief, honestly I thought all along it was probably mistaken.  The NRO people frankly are not that smart and I don't trust them much.  The only hard evidence they provided was Costa's piece that cited internal Prosser polling that showed the race "near even."  And at the time I interpreted that tidbit to mean Prosser might still have been leading in his own polls, but just much more narrowly than before.

Yes a close loss can discourage people.  But this wasn't Kerry losing to Bush, it was "just" a judicial race.  Yes it was the most high-profile judicial race in any state perhaps in my lifetime, but it's still not as important to the state's political direction as the county exec races yesterday and the recalls to come, and I think activists on the ground in their very guts and hearts are going to feel the same way.  I know I would, because I'm always most concerned in politics about who actually legislates and governs, not the judiciary...and I think ordinary people are almost universally the same.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Not An Either/Or election, a Both/And Election
I think this is a both/and election.

Democrats have proven that their voters are motivated, and that there's a real turn against Walker. It bodes well for the Kapanke recall.  If this motivation holds, that's excellent news for Obama's campaign.

OTOH, I would seriously think about marshalling resources to the more winnable recalls because the anti-Walker feeling has not crossed the Kerry/Bush divide.

[ Parent ]
I went to be at 1 EST feelin screwed.
Should I still feel screwed?

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

I'll panic...
If those Milwaukee County precincts break for Justice Prosser (which would surprise me), or if those Ashland and Sauk county precincts turn out to be empty.

Until then, I'm very cautiously optimistic.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
they filled in empty milwaukee counties.  Could still have those 8k votes everyone was talking about

And we're also awaiting...
Ashland, Sauk, Juneau, Taylor, and Jefferson county precincts.

We're looking at a photo finish, unless there are that many paper ballots yet to be added to the vote totals and they break strongly one way or the other.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Didn't add dunn yet, add that in we're behind about 500

[ Parent ]
This is looking over to me

It's over...
If those precincts in Kloppenburg-friendly counties are reported empty and those 8,000 votes Mayor Barrett mentioned fail to materialize.

Right now, we're just waiting with bated breath.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
I still maintain that the 8,000 votes figure
is entirely meaningless without the context of what absentees--if any--are outstanding in the rest of the state. If everyone has to count their absentees, that's bad. The conventional wisdom is that absentees almost never change the election night result.  

[ Parent ]
I'm wondering if absentees...
Were the reason for the huge vote dumps from the suburban counties around Milwaukee. That would be good.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Remember Cantwell-Gorton '00
while not strictly "absentee," they were mail-in votes that IIRC overcame a Gorton 5 figure lead on election night.

[ Parent ]
Washington mail-in ballots...
Obviously then and especially now much more common than in Wisconsin.

But hope remains, at least for now. If those West Allis precincts boost Justice Prosser into quadruple digits, it's probably looking bad, but if Prosser underperforms there (as he has elsewhere in Milwaukee County), then unless those Sauk and Ashland county precincts are empty (my greatest fear right now; worth noting, also, that the J-S still believes that Dane County precinct is out, according to the linked article), Kloppenburg is still in this.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
I hate West Allis!
My grandfather, a libertarian, lives there and I believe Dahmer lived there too. It's a horrible place.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Seems like very different circumstances
I'm not feeling too good about this one.

[ Parent ]
One of the lessons of '00
is that when absentee ballots are easy to get, they should be an important part of the canvassing process.

Since then, I gather that absentee ballots in such states have generally favored Ds.

If I'm reading correctly, WI voters could even request an absentee ballot by e-mail, by Mar 31.

While I don't know what happened on the ground in WI, I'm sure their D canvassers are competent.  

[ Parent ]
Gonna have to call it a night
Hopefully the totals will be updated in Kloppenburg's favor when I wake up, but assuming no outstanding precincts are empty, it's going to come down to quite possibly a double-digit margin, by my count.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

Looking back at the 2008 results
There are a few thousand votes they count later. On Wednesday morning, Obama 1,647k and by the counts were certified, it was 1,674k

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....

17, CA-06,  

Could be very close
robertcostaNRO Robert Costa
by HotlineJosh
A source close to Prosser tells me that the margin is "going to shrink" and that the statewide tally will likely be decided by abt 30 votes

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

Speaking of shrinking
the rest of Ashland just came in. Prosser's lead is now just 419.

21, Progressive Democrat, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)

[ Parent ]
Ashland Co. all in
Kloppenburg 3266
Prosser 1383

Statewide margin down to 190 votes for Prosser with 13 precincts left.  Here's hoping the remaining Milwaukee Co. precincts don't screw us over too badly.

23, male, Democrat, IA-02 (previously CA-26, PA-06, CA-06)

AP now has updated Ashland numbers. Margin down to 419.

Sauk County
No results from website yet, but per Feb primary results, there are apparently 44 precincts there total (vs. 39 from AP.) Hopefully those extra 5 aren't empty.

Sauk Co. done
Prosser 7170
Kloppenburg 9188

Kloppenburg takes the lead! By 369 votes with 5 precincts left.

23, male, Democrat, IA-02 (previously CA-26, PA-06, CA-06)

Dunn county will pad that by ~200 votes.
Dane is empty at worst.

Question is Milwaukee.

[ Parent ]
That count includes Dunn and Dane
per their respective county websites.  But no disagreement that it all comes down to Milwaukee Co.

23, male, Democrat, IA-02 (previously CA-26, PA-06, CA-06)

[ Parent ]
West Allis
Is all in on website. (scroll down for one of the pdfs)

Pross+2352... don't know how much of it is in AP.

Weirdness in West Allis
Looking at local race, Milwaukee J-S is reporting MORE (roughly 3000... but this is school board with multiple votes, so call 1000 actual votes) votes from West Allis than results from city website (which were in at 9:20 AM today.)

Hopefully the AP/J-S are what made the mistake, and they've overcounted totals from there for Prosser too.

[ Parent ]
Whoa, Kloppenberg now UP 130 votes! And the remaining 10 precincts...
...are 8 from counties Klop won, and 2 from counties Prosser won.

Of course, individual precincts are wildcards, county-wide doesn't necessarily mean anything.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

So, AP has Klopp ahead by 140 with
precincts out still in:

Dane (we think this is empty though right?)

Out of those, the only big outstanding # is from pro-Prosser Milwaukee precincts. So, Prosser should re-take the lead shortly then right?

Unclear what's left in Milwaukee
J-S says it's West Allis (pro-Prosser city). But West Allis is all in on the city website, and comparing local results, J-S has MORE total votes from West Allis than city results.  

[ Parent ]
Well, that is odd.
I am not sure it matters since we are in automatic re-count territory.

[ Parent ]
It matters because the leader on the 1st count is likely to survive the recount......
There are exceptions, like when Gregoire and Franken won on recount flips.

But as a rule, recounts even in most of the closest races end up validating the 1st-count outcome.

That doesn't mean it can't flip to Prosser, but the mistakes have to be sufficiently one-sided to make it happen, and those mistakes are no more likely to erase Klop's lead than to double it.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I should've typed (again, need to proofread better)......
FIXING those mistakes is no more likely to erase Klop's lead than to double it.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
It will come down to rejected ballots and voter intent
Similar to MN in 2008. Most of Wisconsin uses "fill in the bubble" and "complete the arrow" hand ballots.

23, dude, gay, IL-13

[ Parent ]
Now Kloppenberg up 369 votes with 5 precincts left! And they are... in Jefferson (Prosser leads county 58-42); one in Juneau (Klop 52-48); 2 in Milwaukee (Klop 57-43); and one in Taylor (Prosser 61-39).

As of this moment, I'd rather be Kloppenberg than Prosser.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

My guess
the Jefferson county is the one to watch, Juneau is probably a wash, and Taylor is a really tiny county.

Who knows about Milwaukee?  People are saying the final town is done there but the vote totals didn't change.

[ Parent ]
Kloppenburg up 447 now
but still the same 5 precincts outstanding.  Totals are being adjusted I guess.

[ Parent ]
Did a few liveblog entries disappear
from this blog post?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

barely any Dem areas left
so lets see what happens now.

23, dude, gay, IL-13

Only one precinct left...
The town of Lake Mills is counting now.  700-760 votes up for grabs.  Prosser one the rest of the county.

[ Parent ]
Reportedly he only nets 2 votes from here

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
Then... we win??? At least for today???
Wow!  Oh, and sorry about my typo above... Prosser WON the rest of the county, not one... Forgive me, I'm really really tired!

[ Parent ]
AP says all precincts are reporting...
And JoAnne Kloppenburg has won by under 200 votes.

Amazing, stellar stuff, just the way I wanted to start my Thursday.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

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