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SSP Daily Digest: 4/4 (part deux)

by: DavidNYC

Mon Apr 04, 2011 at 3:45 PM EDT


House:

CA-36: Janice Hahn took 57% of the vote at a Democratic Party caucus on Saturday, just shy of the 60% necessary to win the party's formal endorsement. Debra Bowen scored 39%, while Marcy Winograd took 2%. Hahn did score the backing of the California Labor Federation, a large labor umbrella organization.

On the campaign trail, Hahn has now started emphasizing that she's a lifelong Democrat, alluding to the fact that Bowen was a Republican until 1984. A spokesperson shot back: "Yes it's true, Debra Bowen has only been a Democrat for nearly 30 years." I'm not sure this line of attack is going to work.

FL-14 (?): The question mark is our new way of indicating we aren't really sure what district we're talking about - and it's not because we're clueless morans. Rather, with redistricting afoot, we sort of have a Schrödinger's Seat problem in many states. Case in point: Lee County Commissioner Tammy Hall (R) just created an exploratory committee for the 14th CD... but that, of course, is Rep. Connie Mack's district. Hall says she has no intention of primarying him, but that she just wants to get ready because she thinks a new seat will get created in her area. (I'll also point out that in his "I'm not running for Senate" announcement, I don't think Mack actually said he was running for re-election, so maybe his seat could open up, too.)

FL-19 (?): Hmm, maybe this question mark thing is going to get old very fast. Ultra-right-wing radio nutcase Joyce Kaufman ("If ballots don't work, bullets will," she said at a teabagger rally) says she won't rule out a run for Congress, though she sounds very dubious on the idea. (She was a barker for Allen West and very briefly was anointed as his Chief of Staff, before that idea completely blew up.) She currently lives in Rep. Ted Deutch's very blue district, so she'd have to get very lucky with redistricting to have any kind of chance.

IA-02: No real surprise: Rep. Dave Loebsack says he'd like to represent the new 2nd CD in the map just put forth by the state's independent redistricting commission. The new version of this southeast Iowa district contains a bunch of the same territory as the old IA-02, except for Loebsack's home - though he's not far outside the border. (He hasn't said whether he'd move, though he probably wouldn't have to.) Also of note, Christie Vilsack lives in the new 2nd, though she hasn't commented yet. Bruce Braley says he'll stay in the 1st, but his 2010 opponent, Ben Lange, might move into the 2nd.

In related news, Brian Kennedy, a former state GOP chair, thinks that this won't be the final congressional map (the legislature can send the commission back to the drawing board), in part because the state House and Senate maps also throw a bunch of incumbents together. But columnist Kathie Obradovich thinks that lawmakers might be inclined toward this set of maps because the next batch could be a lot worse. In fact, in 2001, 50 members of the House and 20 senators were placed in districts with fellow incumbents, while only 27 and 14, respectively, are now. So

MI-09 (?): This comes as little surprise (see SSP Amazing Digest #328), but Marty McFly Knollenberg plans to travel back in time form an exploratory committee to undo avenge his father's loss to Rep. Gary Peters in 2008.

NM-01: We're off to the races! Dem Rep. Antonio "Moe" Maestas says he's thinking about running for Rep. Martin Heinrich's now-open seat. (State Sen. Eric Griego (D) announced an exploratory committee last Friday, just before Heinrich declared for Senate.) Also over the weekend, Albuquerque Councilor Dan Lewis became the first Republican to formally join the race. Former state Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones (R) has already filed an exploratory committee.

NY-14: LOL - Reshma Saujani, who tried to convinced voters she was a better Democrat than Rep. Carolyn Maloney, is now a member of the deeply lame "non-partisan" group "No Labels." Good luck ever trying to win a primary in this town again.

NY-26: It's official: Thanks to screwing up his own paperwork, teabagger David Bellavia is off the ballot... and the Federalist Party sleeps for another 200 years.

TN-09: Another member of the extended Ford clan says he's thinking about challenging Rep. Steve Cohen: Twenty-five-year-old Justin Ford (a cousin of Harold Jr.), who was just elected Shelby County Commissioner last year. Jackson Baker of the Memphis Flyer notes that this would be the 4th Ford to face off against Cohen: Harold Jr. (1996), Joe Jr. (2006), and Jake (also 2006). Baker also reminds readers that Harold Ford, Sr. endorsed Cohen last year, which probably means that Justin is just goofing around trying to get his name rec up a bit. (I mean, he conducted this interview while on an elliptical trainer, almost a scene out of Law & Order.)

Other Races:

NYC-Mayor: Marist took another early look at the Dem primary for mayor in my hometown. They forgot to poll DavidNYC, so take this one with a grain of salt:

Anthony Weiner (D): 18 (21)
William Thompson (D): 15 (16)
John Liu (D): 13 (10)
Christine Quinn (D): 13 (9)
Bill De Blasio (D): 9 (8)
Scott Stringer (D): 4 (4)
Undecided: 27 (32)
(MoE: ±5%)

I will also take this opportunity to remind folks about Bill De Blasio's views on Wall Street.

OH Referendum: Gov. John Kasich signed the anti-union bill known as SB5 into law late last week, triggering a 90-day period for opponents to gather some 231,000 signatures to put the measure on the ballot for voter approval (or disapproval) this November. I'll note that in 1958, in an uncannily similar situation, a "right-to-work" law was also placed on the ballot in Ohio (354K signatures were required)  -  and got destroyed, 63-37. Let's hope history repeats.

Redistricting Roundup:

California: Anyone here from the Great Bear Republic? Anyone a redistricting nerd? Well now the next five months of your social calendar are set: CA's redistricting commission is hosting public hearings, starting this week in Sacramento and going all the way through August. Have fun!

Illinois: There are so, so many great maps produced on this site every week that I hesitate to call special attention to any one of them. (I love all my gerrymandered children equally!) But I think you'll agree that silver spring's proposed 14 D, 4 R plan for Illinois is such a wickedly brilliant work of art and science that it deserves a shout-out. If you know anyone in the IL lege, please pass this diary on to them!

Louisiana: The state House and Senate are both taking up federal maps today, with the House considering three different plans while the Senate has settled on just one. These maps have all passed out of committee, so each full body could potentially vote today. However, differences will still need to be ironed out between the Senate plan (assuming it passes) and whichever map the House chooses. The second link contains the greatest detail, including some actual maps and some alternate options that were voted down.

Missouri: The state Senate apparently passed its version of a new congressional redistricting plan, and it's reportedly similar to the House's map that we saw last week, but I haven't been able to find the actual map yet. Let us know if you see it in comments.

North Carolina: Interesting: Rep. Mike McIntyre is reaching out to his constituents, asking them rhetorically if they want their "next Congressman to be from Raleigh, Goldsboro, or Charlotte?" McIntyre wants his southeastern district kept intact, so he's asking supporters to tell members of the state legislature that they want the same thing. I'll be curious to see if other members of Congress try this same tactic.

DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 4/4 (part deux)
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Has anyone else
had a chance to check out what NBC is showing for their 2012 "Battleground" map? They're a joke whoever put it together. They place IL, CA, CT in "likely Democrat" and put AL, LA, MS and AR only in "likely Republican." They're turning out to be a joke.  

19, Male, Conservative, NC-06 (SC-04 college)  

Former Congressman Adler dies at 51
http://www.courierpostonline.c...

Shocker. RIP.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan


Shocking
He was too young.

RIP.


[ Parent ]
Agreed


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Wow
Really shocking. Terrible news.

[ Parent ]
RIP
Way too young to go.  

[ Parent ]
Awful news
Only 51, so sad.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
Very sad and unexpected
RIP

Male, VA-08

[ Parent ]
RIP
It was a staph infection.  

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Really sorry to here this
"His passing is a tragic loss for our state, but his legacy of intelligent and classy leadership will not be forgotten. Every time we breath clean air at a restaurant, for instance, we can thank John Adler."

Nice tribute from New Jersey's speaker.  RIP.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
My
god this is terrible. My thoughts are out to his family right now.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
He was my State Senator before then.
This is so sad and shocking.  I am stunned.  RIP to a very good man.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I'll arrange for a moment of silence
when we commence the College Democrats meeting tonight.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
So sad...
May he RIP.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Indeed
I defended him a few times online to conservadem charges. He was nothing of the sort.

[ Parent ]
Very sad
Thinking of his family and loved ones today.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
So sad,
My brothers fiancée just lost her dad 3 days ago unexpectedly. My prayers are with the family.  

19, Male, Conservative, NC-06 (SC-04 college)  

[ Parent ]
ned mcwherter too
this is a sad day

http://www.wreg.com/news/wreg-...

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)


[ Parent ]
Oh my
Awful. RIP.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Worst part of all
is that he had four kids. Absolutely terrible. RIP Congressman.

19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)

[ Parent ]
That tears my heart out even more......
I have 2 kids, it's one of the things I worry about, being around for them, since my dad and my sister both died before their time because of health problems.

So it's chilling for me when a dad dies with children.  It's just awful.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
RIP
What else can be said..

[ Parent ]
Terrible to die so young.
RIP

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
The other day
While I was cleaning out the barn, I was thinking about all the targets of derision that the 2010 cycle gave us, which did indeed lead to the thought "I wonder what Reshma Saujani is up to, nowadays". I'm not sure if I would've thought that without the stimulus that cleaning out a poultry barn provides, you know?  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

With that NYC Mayor line-up, Thompson would again win the nod
You'd have four white liberals vs. one Asian (who isn't very popular) vs. one African-American (who's actually well-liked among white liberals, too). Unless Thompson failed to clear the 40% run-off mark, I think he'd rather easily win the nomination...and lose to Ray Kelly in the general. I think Weiner's too divisive to even win a Dem primary here. Quinn's beloved by the gay community and has Ed Koch behind her. De Blasio and Stringer are complete non-starters.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

Thompson would lose to Ray Kelly?
I don't wanna say "never," since we've now elected Republicans five fucking times in a row... but that would be quite something.

BTW, why do you say that Liu is not popular? Maybe not well-known, but I'd be surprised if he were unpopular.


[ Parent ]
Anyone would lose to Ray Kelly
but I doubt Ray Kelly would run, at least not as a Republican

[ Parent ]
It's been awhile, but I remember seeing a poll
showing Kelly down by solid double digits against Weiner and the others. And I have a feeling his approval numbers have dropped since then (along with Bloombergs).


[ Parent ]
Weiner's fortunes have dropped substantially here
in the last year.


[ Parent ]
Why?
Some internecine backroom ethnic politics feuding?  I hope that's it.  I eat that stuff up...

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]
Polling to back that up?
Seems like a facile claim - Weiner's become a more outspoken progressives voice on Capitol Hill, hence because the chattering classes don't like liberals who aren't meek, Weiner is less popular back home.

[ Parent ]
yea
Weiner did well last time as a populist, outerborough candidate. He will still get a huge chunk of the outerborough White vote, as well as a huge chunk of the liberal vote due to his recent outspokenness. Seems like the clear favorite.

What I am more curious about is if Liu, DeBlasio + Quinn are all going to be out of their current offices in 2013, who do people see as the favorites to replace them?  


[ Parent ]
If Stringer, De Blasio and Quinn pass, Weiner definitely emerges the front-runner
On the whole, he's popular among NYC liberals, sure. But, when you factor in a whole plethora of other white liberals, Thompson has to like what he sees. There isn't another high-profile black candidate who's poised to run and blacks will make up about a third to a fourth of the primary electorate. For fun, imagine something like...

White - 42%
Black - 28%
Hispanic - 23%
Asian - 7%

Thompson - 12/56/20/15 = 27%
Weiner - 34/22/29/23 = 28%
De Blasio - 18/7/16/12 = 14%
Quinn - 17/7/18/15 = 13%
Stringer - 11/6/13/8 = 11%
Liu - 8/2/5/43 = 7%

Heh. I have to love when my calculations kinda disprove my rhetoric. Still, the fewer the white liberals, the better for Weiner. This is the kind of primary the Republican nominee would love.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
Well, to be fair, Liu was at 54% approval in March's Quinnipiac poll
But, that's with Ray Kelly at a sky-high 67% approval. Let's not forget that Liu won his primary by the skins of his teeth. He failed to cross the run-off mark and won that run-off by 11 points vs. David Yassky, who's about the most boring NYC politician ever.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Yassky had VERY strong Jewish support though


[ Parent ]
My take.
First of all that poll is just name identification.  Can't get too much out of it.  Just remember how far ahead Green was for Public Advocate against everyone including Di Blasio.

But on the candidates.

1) Weiner has name ID, a good populist style, and some remorse amoung Democrats he didn't run.  But we have yet to see how he'll fare against withering attacks in a truly competitive election.  There is a good reason why potential candidates always look so much better than actual ones.

2) Liu performs VERY well in front of any group of Democrats he appears before and has been courting labor like crazy.  Also don't underestimate the Asian community.  People underestimated him in the Comptroller race.  It would be a mistake to do it this time around.

3) Part of Thompson's loss last time around was his inability to get the African-Americans out to vote the way he needed to.  That he isn't a very polarizing figure is a double edged sword.  He both doesn't offend and doesn't excite at the same time.

4) There is a large undercurrent of dislike among Democrats for Quinn being complicit in just about everything Bloomberg has done.  She's going to have a hardtime shaking that off.  I also don't see her doing well outside of Manhattan.

5) While his Wall Street comments open a line of attack a lot of the lefties I know are going with di Blasio.  While not going gangbusters like Liu he also hasn't stopped running since he won office.

6) I don't think Stringer will run.  I do however think Bronx Borough President Ruben Diaz, Jr will.  Yes, son of Ruben Diaz, Sr who was one of the gang of four who helped kneecap State Senate Democrats before they even took office.

Diaz, Jr has been playing up populists themes with his campaign for a "living wage" in NYC.  He's also amassed a pretty impressive political machine in the Bronx that could prove crucial for him in a multi-candidate primary.

Of course if he wins they'll probably be a runoff which could spell trouble depending on how he plays (or downplays) the gay marriage issue.

7) Though there would be some irony in the guy chosen by Dinkins and fired by Guiliani running as a Republican that has been the rumor for awhile.

On paper he's a strong candidate.  But no one really knows where he stands on anything.  And Bloomberg might want to pass off his job to his friend and fellow billionaire Mort Zuckerman to buy.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...


[ Parent ]
What on Earth would constitute as a living wage in NYC?
$30 an hour?  

[ Parent ]
Is Ed Koch out yet?
It's a little O/T but kinda relevant since Quinn's base of support is the gay community + former mayor Ed Koch.  That said.... did Ed Koch ever come out officially, like cover-of-People-magazine officially? Because there was a certain amount of resentment about that among NYC LGBTs at one point in time. And if Quinn is vulnerable to the too-close-to-the-establishment/Bloomberg meme, Koch's support wouldn't seem all that helpful, and he might even hurt her in the gay community.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Did you ever see "Shortbus"?(nt)


25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]
Oh my god.
I watched that movie a couple weeks ago with a girlfriend. Wow.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
It's not to my taste
But the very broadly-played Ed Koch character was kind of amusing.

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]
I'm assuming it was the old guy. :p


19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
.
LOVE Jay Brannan. He was amazing when I saw him live in concert at UT two years ago.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
I will never look at
the star spangled banner the same way again.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Nope
Not my taste, either. And if getting outed on film counted, Outrage star David Dreier would be marching openly in moderate pride parades by this point.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
What was the problem with the movie?
I've heard it's very... daring. It looked interesting, though, so I'm curious what you found distasteful about it.  

[ Parent ]
I didn't find it too explicit or anything like that, I meant my cinematic tastes...
I just thought the direction was kind of flat and that the script seemed too much like a transcript of an improv session, with random half-clever ideas (hey, let's put Ed Koch in it!) that didn't connect with or build on each other.  I did think the lead actress was pretty good, the sex therapist.  But I am notoriously picky, especially about comedies, and a lot of people like it (including the bf).  YMMV.    

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]
Oh yeah, I didn't mean that it constituted coming out
(Good reference, btw).  I just thought it might be of interest.  BTW, why are there so many gays on this site, anyway?  I remember someone on here said they had met more gays on SSP than they ever had in their lives...

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]
My study abroad program had lots of gays too.
add Japan and politics to the list of fields that draw in the gays. (good for those of us who aren't huge fans of theater :P)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
fabulous people do fabulous things


[ Parent ]
"Schrödinger's Seat problem"
heh. Is this part of DavidNYC's Congressional Uncertainty Principle?  

Bowen was about 19 when she became a Democrat
No doubt her parents were Republicans and a lot of children follow their parents in party labels. She may not have even had a chance to vote Republican, it's not like she was that far over the voting age.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

Hell, I was a Republican in college, and in fact active in College Republicans!......
College is a time when a lot of people first pin down consciously what their values really are, in politics and all else.  Hitting someone for their college voter registration is stupid.


43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I'm pretty sure
I pinned down what my values were when I was a freshmen in high school. Oh darn, I hope I don't turn into a conservative in Law School!

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
NYC
Weiner would be a great mayor. Out of the 4 white liberals in the poll I think he would have the best chance to differentiate himself from the pack. I also think he would have the best shot against Ray Kelly in the general.  

Weiner's problem is he's gaffe-prone and non-liberals can't stand him
I suspect Kelly/Weiner would look an awful lot like Bloomberg/Green, where the vast bulk of moderates bolt for the Republican. In all fairness, Weiner's floor is probably in the mid-40s, but his ceiling might well be low for a NYC Democrat.

Thompson, at least, isn't an offensive figure to folks in the middle. He's just not very exciting.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
Gaffe-prone?
Sure he can come off as a arrogant, but I cant think of a single true "gaffe" he's pulled off.

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42

[ Parent ]
Weiner's a loudmouth know-it-all
He's a loudmouth know-it-all, but in NYC, that's a sign he's a hometown boy and I don't think it could hurt him that much, if at all. Being Jewish, being pals with Jon Stewart and ripping various Fox talking heads to shreds isn't going to hurt him, either.

And I agree, I'm not sure "gaffe" would be the right word for any of his past actions. We may be operating under different ideas of what a gaffe is and whether or not some of his past actions were such, but I'm with HoosierD42 on this one... can't think of a single Weiner gaffe that would hurt him significantly among the NYC electorate.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
meh yes it will
People don't want that running the city...they're (barely) ok with it in Congress, but between him and someone a little calmer and pragmatic, he goes down in flames.

That loud, brash, principled stuff died with Eliot Spitzer's political career


[ Parent ]
meh
I don't see it. He went from 5% to 30 % in the 05 race because of his image as a real middle class guy from Queens. None of the other candidates are eating into that support, and now heh as some liberal cred as opposed to just being a pretty no named Congressman like he was last time. Plus he has 5m banked already.  

[ Parent ]
That's before he made himself a national figure
I mean he won reelection this past year by the smallest margin ever against a guy with no money who was a teabagger...I think he even lost the Brooklyn portion of the district, or narrowly won it. No one turned out for him, there was pretty significant crossover Cuomo-Turner.

He's seen differently now than he was five years ago, then he was even two years ago.  


[ Parent ]
I'd rather
have someone loud, brash and principled than a milquetoast, to be honest.

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42

[ Parent ]
yeah well so would I
but I'm in the minority

[ Parent ]
I think the focus on public image is misplaced, either way
Making C-Span speeches and TV appearances is, in my opinion, a really cheap way for a legislator to get liberal/ideological cred.  Unless you have good evidence that said speeches and appearances helped move legislation and policy the way you want it.  What policies are better because Anthony Weiner "takes apart" Republicans in YouTube videos?  (Which, admittedly, I have not watched.  Also, Weiner called Joe Lieberman a dick on "The Daily Show" so that does earn him some Xenocrypt points).  Political junkies get a thrill or get pissed off, no one else notices, the bill stays the same, the vote on it stays the same, and the enactment of it stays the same.  

At least, that's my impression.  If you think there is good evidence that Weiner's public image has helped move policy in a good direction, I'd be interested in being refuted.  I can't find too much about his legislative record at a glance--an amendment to increase funding for the National Park Service, a law to ban cigarette smuggling or something like that--but that's a separate question than the one I'm asking.

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)


[ Parent ]
There's nothing incorrect about what you've said
But its nice at least having him on the record as defending/attacking policy proposals passionately, smartly, and cleverly is a plus, regardless of of how obscure the source.

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42

[ Parent ]
Also, for anybody who's watched his career...
... it's fairly obvious that his latter-day emergence as a progressive champion is a transparent ploy to get the support of Manhattan liberals he didn't get last time around.

I mean the guy was the populist-but-centrist New Democrat for years, known mostly for being bombastically pro-Israel and Neoconish in his foreign policy views, then suddenly he morphed into a single-payer advocate yacking it up on MSNBC. Never mind he played virtually no role shaping that legislation or even the 9/11-First-Responders' bill he memorably spoke about.  


[ Parent ]
Quinn has Manhattan liberals already
What he's doing is costing him part of his base; outer borough white Dems who will probably go to Liu or de Blasio if he runs, or they just won't show up at all and vote for Kelly if he runs.

Weiner won't be able to clear 40 percent if Quinn or Stringer runs and in a runoff, he loses to anyone.

He needs both Manhattan liberals and outer borough moderates, he might end up losing both.



[ Parent ]
his arrogance is the biggest gaffe
I live in his district, he's not popular at all here, because of his loud tenancies.  

[ Parent ]
I respect your firsthand experience
but I can't think of a single instance where being "loud" created a popularity problem in New York.  

[ Parent ]
Eliot Spitzer
that's what people are comparing Weiner too

[ Parent ]
nevermind, too slow
shouldn't keep my comments in preview for more than 15 minutes  

[ Parent ]
MO Map
These new districts look like they are trying to take out, or at the very least make Cleaver's seat a real toss up.


Not really
Cleaver loses the very Republican part of Cass county he had under the old map. The three rural counties he picks up are not that populated and while Republican not as blood red as some in Missouri. I would guess the PVI of the proposed district is about the same as his old one.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
I dunno
I can't see how this helps him any.  Cleaver only got 53% percent of the vote in 2010, he won with 102K votes to 84K.  The three new rural counties he's getting our about 25,000 new voters to him that lean pretty heavily R and culturally they couldn't be any different then downtown KC. I think this is seat the Dems are going to have to play defense on.

[ Parent ]
It's pretty much a wash.
The 5th district loses the part of Cass county it had which Cleaver lost by 6,691 votes (67% to 30%). The 3 rural counties went R in the Senate race by only 5,025 votes.  

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
It shouldn't be a problem
2010 was lopsided, in a more neutral cycle, he would win by more. The additions county for very little to the Republican total in the district.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
Here is a MO map
Not sure if it is the Senate or House Version

http://hosted.ap.org/specials/...

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan


[ Parent ]
I think it is the Senate version
At least it looks like what is described in this article.

http://www.columbiatribune.com...

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan


[ Parent ]
I see absolutely no reason...
Why Gov. Nixon shouldn't veto this. Come on, a 1-6-1? Really? You can't say this map shores up Rep. Cleaver at all, and with that much of the St. Louis exurbs and MO-01 ballooning outward to soak up a lot of the black-majority and blue-collar suburbs in St. Louis County, MO-02 is probably likely Republican.

Even a court-drawn map has virtually no possibility of looking this gruesome for the Democrats. If I were Nixon, I'd roll the dice. Republicans won't be able to override the veto if Cleaver's people aren't on board.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


[ Parent ]
A court-drawn map would be best here.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
How would it go to court though?
If Nixon vetoes and the GOP can't override, then it goes to court?  Such a thing would be nice as the current map is a GOP-favored one and a court would loosen things up.

Of course, to deny veto, no more than 2 Dems in the State House (assuming the vacant seat is a Dem one) can defect.  I hope they can do so.  The MO SC is evenly balanced.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Yes, that would be the process...
But the trouble is keeping those Democrats in line. Republicans will be looking to get those defectors out of St. Louis, and Gov. Nixon is going to have to get Rep. Clay to persuade them that he'll be fine under a court-drawn map.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Well that wouldn't be hard
This part: "Gov. Nixon is going to have to get Rep. Clay to persuade them that he'll be fine under a court-drawn map" should be pretty easy unless Clay and local Democrats are all friggin' morons. Clay's seat is VRA-protected, so there's no way he'd get a district he couldn't win in a landslide.

I'm not sure if there are any suburban Democrats in STL left after the 2010 Red Tide (I don't think there are, actually) but they would seem to be much better targets. Just draw Akin's district to be somewhat more competitive such that they think they could win it and they might jump ship for the chance. Of course, they would be screwing themselves in the long run because they'd be party pariahs (hated by the Gov and the Carnahans) but if I were Republicans, I'd aim at flipping them. Seriously, though, if liberal urban Democrats join with Republicans to go for one of these maps, they have lost their friggin' minds.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
Russ Carnahan represents much of suburban St. Louis
Though he's almost certainly the odd man out here. Though if you include enough of the yuppie-inner-ring St. Louis suburbs, you could make MO-02 a swing district.  

[ Parent ]
It's a 6-2 map, Cleaver will be fine
Cleaver won by 9 points 2010 in a horrible year for Democrats and the proposed map looks like it changes the partisan makeup of the map by only a point or 2 either way.  

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
It also gives him a lot of new territory in which practically every Democrat...
Will be a rural white conservative. That opens him up to a primary challenge. Kansas City voters know him and like him, because he's been a good representative for the community, but I'm not sure people in that new arm eastward will give him the benefit of the doubt when they could have a good shot at getting one of "theirs" - probably a white Blue Dog - the nomination.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
.
The base of support is NOT there for any non-Kansas City Democrat to unseat him.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
Agreed
Turnout would have to be like 5% in Jackson County and 100% in the rural counties for that to happen.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
.
Less. Much less. It would have to be like .1% in Jackson County.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
Oh, they can be from Kansas City...
But I think it would create more impetus for a serious white conservative challenger to Rep. Cleaver to emerge.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
.
No.

There isn't the base for that either.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.


[ Parent ]
not the biggest fan of the ford family
but doing an interview on an elliptical is as epic as it is beneficial to the cardiovascular system.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

That Illinois map
is beautiful. Giving me a major boehner right now just looking at it.

23, dude, gay, IL-13

Southern Nevada Municipal Primaries Tomorrow!
We have so much mayhem in the North Las Vegas and Henderson council races with cross party endorsements, council members and candidates in foreclosure, allegations of physical abuse, and union warfare. Oh, and did I mention Las Vegas has a mayoral election? ;-)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


Wisconsinites! Don't forget to vote tomorrow!
And if you aren't from Wisconsin but know people who live there, remind them!

Get rid of Republican legislature leader and current supreme court judge David Prosser!  Vote for Joanne Kloppenberg!

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


How much influence does Knollenberg have over redistricting?
Peters-Levin is the natural match-up for redistricting, as only McCotter of the other seats would be easy to eliminate and there's not much benefit to the Republicans in doing that.

But if they do that, the Peters-Levin district is going to be as blue as they can make it, because McCotter and Rogers don't want to have to pick up areas like Pontiac or Royal Oak.

Which will make the replacement for the 9th utterly unwinnable for a Republican.

But if Knollenberg thinks it's worth staffing up for a run, that suggests he reckons the 9th will be preserved and kept winnable. Which suggests that McCotter and possibly Miller are going to find themselves absorbing a lot of blue territory.

Does Knollenberg have the juice in the State House to get the rest of the redistricting committee to help him screw over the head of the House Republican Policy Committee?


Re: Thad and Candice
I'll be the first to say it; giving Thad a bunch more blue territory is a death sentence. Thad's one of the 3 Reps I can't believe that they didn't get a top shelf challenger in '06 or '08 (the other two, for the record are Pat Tiberi in the Ohio 12th, and Steve LaTourette in the Ohio 14th, with Tim Murphy in PA-18 getting an honorable mention).

Miller, on the other hand, strikes me as a pretty good political operator who could take on some blue turf and be okay; not a whole lot, but some.


[ Parent ]
Or Walberg
who isn't the first person that comes to mind, but in at least some of the scenarios I've been playing around with on Dave's App, he's actually the one who gets cut out for Knollenberg.

It is worth emphasizing that point though (as you have), that if there's a seat for Knollenberg, it's one that he's taken from another Republican.

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.


[ Parent ]
I'm currently putting the finishing touches on a map
It turns out that with the Detroit districts needing to expand more, it's fairly easy to protect Walberg and Rogers - I replaced Dingell's district with one covering all of Ingham and Washtenaw, plus Jackson City, which makes Rogers very safe and allow Walberg to improve his position, even though he has to absorb bits of southern Downriver.

This also has the advantage of not having to make Kildee's district look horrifically gerrymandered.

I'm now trying to see if this map gives Rogers enough slack that he can swap enough territory with the new MI-9 to give Knollenberg a chance. McCotter too, as this map improves his prospects significantly.


[ Parent ]
Honestly I have to root for Hahn
For two reasons

1.I love Debra Bowen too much and want her to stay as our Secretary of State.
(I saw what happened in Ohio where we had a bomb ass Secretary of state who left an open seat for Republicans to gobble up, I honestly felt we could have held it with her, yes yes I know CA is MUCH bluer than Ohio it still doesn't change the fact that I love Bowen where she is. Hell she still has almost 4 years of office term, that's plenty of time who knows what maybe open)

2. This seat is likely to change after redistricting why Bowen waste her time energy running in a seat that could be potentially different in 2012

So that's my two cents there

Male 21 Dem Ca's 1st  


It's otay
Personally, I'd prefer Bowen to Hahn, who has always struck me as an in-it-for-herself type of politician. Plus, I think political dynasties are as un-American as a landed aristocracy (Hahn's father was a powerful county supervisor and her brother was LA Mayor). That said, Gov. Brown would get to appoint Bowen's replacement, no? And the odds of Republicans winning a low-profile statewide office versus a competent technocrat with a D by their name....un-friggin-likely.

I totally agree with your second point, however. Bowen is a statewide officer and to drop down now for a district that is among the likeliest to be totally dismantled seems silly. Of course, what she's trying to do is to basically call "seat saved" in the inevitable reshuffling that SoCal Democrats are going to go through once the redistricting commission explodes the status quo (hopefully?).

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
That district should stay close to how it is now
It will take on the Palos Verdes Peninsula, but maintain most of the same territory it has now, with very little change in partisan numbers.

Gov. Brown would appoint Bowen's replacement and it would be no doubt someone capable of handling the job right.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.


[ Parent ]
Wha?
"Stay close to how it is now" ... I don't think that's necessarily true at all. Parts of it will stay together, sure: Santa Monica-Venice-Marina del Rey are a pretty natural fit, and I could see them as the base of a West LA district. El Segundo-Manhattan-Redondo-Hermosa-Palos Verdes are fairly connected, (with Torrance the odd man out) but the latter communities are usually more South Bay-centric while the former are more West LA-centric.

I guess there's an argument to be made for putting almost every single one of the LA County beach cities together, but if the commission does that, it's gonna be a really thin strip in some places in order to not be overpopulated, especially adding PV. I mean, Playa del Rey didn't even exist yet in 2000 and now there's thousands of people living there. And I saw parts of Venice and Marina del Rey undergo a LOT of apartment construction. They'd have to move Torrance out for sure, and might have to lop off some interior sections of those cities as well, which doesn't exactly preserve communities of interest, purportedly the overriding concern.

We've got a lot of known unknowns here, in my mind. Too many for Bowen to jump from a statewide office into a shaky congressional seat.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
By staying close to how it is now, I meant it will stay a beach cities district
Yes, some changes will happen, but none that would really be really problematic for Bowen if she won the seat.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
This district is not going anywhere
Of coyurse it might split, and Palos Verdes will be added in with the areas there now, but Redondo beach going north and or south will be a district.

She has to run now, otherwise she has no shot at a seat.  The existing districts in LA need to get a bit larger, and the ones that touch the coast by definition can't "go away".  Something in the middle or eastern part of the city will go away.  

Bowen has made the right move.  The only thing is that anyone running for a seat in LA county will have to face someone from the establishment machine.


[ Parent ]
.
Districts on the beach can to go away if they've not got the level of population needed. Imagine that California has lost two seats and that the beachside communities of L.A. had shrunk a la Detroit. Where would one of those lost seats come from? It'd be a beachside seat. They'd split it in three and give the pieces to the two straddling beachside seats and an inner-L.A. seat. It is totally possible. However, I don't think its likely this census.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
Another political death....
Former Tennessee governor Ned McWherter is dead at age 80.

http://www.deseretnews.com/art...

16, Male, MD-8.


CA-36
is this endorsement like a binding thing that shuts out all other Dems, or is it a Minnesota-style advantage that can be overcome?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


I think it's like Mass
The endorsee has access to the organizational resources of the state party (phonebankers, campaign vehicles, canvassers, voter records, etc.) as well as an upper hand when courting other key endorsers like unions, but the other candidates remain on the primary ballot, and the state party does not spend any money in advertising for their endorsee over the others during the primary.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
I thought Christy Mihos was kicked off the ballot due to
lack of support at the convention?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
That's right
I forgot that you need a minimum of 15% at the convention to make the ballot.

The conventions here are often a turning point. The past two Democratic primaries for governor were free for alls, with 4 candidates making the ballot in 2002 and 3 in 2006. In both cases, the "insider" favorite had struggled to connect with the voters before the primary, with Richard Reich bringing energy to the campaign that Shannon O'Brien did not, and Deval Patrick getting a slow start in '06. But both O'Brien and Patrick won the convention, and then wound up winning the primary going away.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


[ Parent ]
Not binding
But you do get to send out mailers saying you're the official Democratic choice, which matters a lot with primary voters who are usually choosing between a ton of Democratic names. It'd be especially important now that there's a Top 2 system in place--you'd probably coalesce a lot of organizational and institutional support.

Frankly, preventing Hahn from getting that endorsement is a win for Team Bowen. Hahn is a well-connected party stalwart/insider type while Bowen is more of an outsider-y reformist type (though with Bowen at SoS, she's obviously got some insider cred at this point). Battling Hahn to an effective draw among the insiders would still be pretty tough I'd think.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
How does Hahn compare to Harman?
I don't ultimately mind which gets voted in so long as they are far better on privacy and civil liberties than Harman.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Clear improvement
This is more of an establishment/recycled/dynasty/machine vs independent person campaign than an ideological one.  Both Bowen and hahn should be much better than Harman.

The CA Dem establishment is as exciting as warm paste.  It's time to move on from the 1980s.


[ Parent ]
MN 8

Prettner Solon is out, apparently.

http://twitter.com/timnelson_m...

Leaves Fanning, Clark (maybe), Anderson, and Faust.  


Dave's App Question
He now has all states except Alaska up. Before, there were four states that he was waiting on block group data for because voting district data wasn't available. Two of them were Oregon and Kentucky. Does anyone recall what the other two were?

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

One was Rhode Island


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
will there ever be partisan data on Alaska?
I seem to recall that the BoE is centralized and doesn't even release borough results, let alone precincts.

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42

[ Parent ]
One of the reason counting ballots in Alaska takes days
Literally, days. A lot of these rural communities are hundreds of miles away from civilization, and require planes to transport anything, including information. I have never been to rural Alaska, but I have to imagine that it is a very rough place to live.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
Oregon map coming tonight, then
Well, I suppose y'all will see it tomorrow morning...

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
And it's up
Surprisingly easy to do.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Bowen a Republican until 1984?
I was a Republican until 2002! So I better not run in any Democratic primaries then. I'm not a lifelong Democrat either!

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


Imagine if we applied that standard to everything.
Can you envision gay people only supporting politicians who have been on board the gay rights movement all along? We'd probably only be giving our money to LGBT politicians and perhaps straight politicians from a few select areas like New York or San Francisco.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
They did the same criticism
against Hunt Downer in Louisiana.  Landry attacked the fact that Downer was a Democrat (albeit a conservative one in a state where partisan affiliation means little in most cases) until the late 90's.

In fact if anything, I like the idea that she was a Repub-turned-Dem.  It's flattering.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
no zealot like a convert, right? n/t


23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42

[ Parent ]

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