Hahaha

Who are your suggestions for the Great Conservative Hope to take on liberal RINO Jeff Flake?

That's just too good. I sincerely hope someone challenges him and creates copious amounts of cat fud.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

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by: GeoffreyVS @ Fri Apr 01, 2011 at 21:47:51 PM UTC

isn't Alan Keyes the usual go-to guy in these situations

when the GOP needs a Senate candidate...

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by: homerun @ Fri Apr 01, 2011 at 22:51:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

He's needed

in either North Dakota or Nebraska, or maybe to launch a primary challenge against Scott Brown in Massachusetts.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

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by: b.j. @ Sun Apr 03, 2011 at 14:19:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Is it played out to comment that this means Arizonans have slightly less of a chance to finally get their rattlesnake fence?

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

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by: Bob Bobson @ Fri Apr 01, 2011 at 21:54:40 PM UTC

Someone has got to do it...

Can the teabaggers really be satisfied with Flake? Doubt it.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

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by: atdleft @ Fri Apr 01, 2011 at 22:30:26 PM UTC

I think Hayworth will run and garner about 30% at most

I'd wager Arpaio and Quayle pass, though I wholly expect the latter to make some sort of statewide run in this decade.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

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by: andyroo312 @ Fri Apr 01, 2011 at 22:39:10 PM UTC

Quayle

He has zero appeal. He's the Jean Schmidt of the west: he put an otherwise safe seat into play because he's so much weaker than a generic Republican. He won his primary with 22% of the vote on name recognition alone, and then won the general by 11% against a who-dat. His district is listed at R+9 but is more like R+7 because all the AZ districts' PVIs are distorted by McCain's run in 2008. Anyway, R+7 means that all else equal, a Republican should beat a Dem by about 14 points in a neutral year. Quayle fell short of that in the mother of all red wave years.

41, Ind, CA-05

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by: sacman701 @ Sat Apr 02, 2011 at 00:55:48 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hey! Don't insult...

My Sharrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrron like that!

He's the Jean Schmidt of the west

;-)

And yes, like Mrs. Obtuse Angle in NV-Sen last year and NV-02 should she win the nomination next year, Ben Quayle is so intensely polarizing that even some Republicans can't hold their noses for him. Still, if he can unite the teabaggers behind him, maybe we can still hope. After all, look at who's AZ's Governor right now.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

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by: atdleft @ Sat Apr 02, 2011 at 01:11:21 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

PVI calculation

does include a home-state adjustment (but only one for the nominee; for example the AZ and IL PVIs were readjusted, but not the HI or AK PVIs).

überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets

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by: gabjoh @ Sat Apr 02, 2011 at 01:48:37 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

it does?

i've never heard of that before

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

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by: jncca @ Sat Apr 02, 2011 at 02:30:00 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah, source please

Neither Cook's own glossary or mention any account for a home-state effect. And the commentary on Cook's site when they updated PVIs for the 2008 campaign strongly implies that there's no adjustment for home-state effect.

Finally, seven of these districts are in Tennessee, where Gore's performance in non-major metro areas was significantly higher than Kerry's and Obama's. This home-state effect factored into the old PVI, but was not taken into account in the new scores.

Implying that Gore's home-state effect had inflated Democratic PVIs in Tennessee. Without Gore's race in the calculation, the effect went away.

And

Of course, it should be noted that an Obama home-state effect is a major reason why both Hawaii districts and six suburban Chicago districts appear on this list.

Implying that the Obama home-state effect has affected the PVIs in Hawaii and Illinois.

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

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by: borodino21 @ Sat Apr 02, 2011 at 02:51:29 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The one time I don't preview a comment before posting

The first two sentences above were supposed to be:

Neither Cook's own glossary or Wikipedia mention any account for a home-state effect. And the commentary on Cook's site when they updated PVIs for the 2008 campaign strongly implies that there's no adjustment for home-state effect.

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

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by: borodino21 @ Sat Apr 02, 2011 at 02:55:32 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Goshdarn it

I thought it was on Wikipedia or something at some point, but maybe I was just reading an independent analysis someone did where they mentioned they adjusted, and conflated that with PVI in my head. My apologies.

überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets

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by: gabjoh @ Sun Apr 10, 2011 at 00:43:49 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

So how many more times does Catanese have to get punked before he gets fired

or starts revealing the names of the magical elves that give Politico all their information?

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Fri Apr 01, 2011 at 22:39:29 PM UTC

Wow, that's twice in as many weeks...

Catanese has been screwed by Politico's beloved anonymous insiders.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

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by: SaoMagnifico @ Fri Apr 01, 2011 at 23:15:20 PM UTC

Is there any possibility

that instead of Hayworth running for senate, he would instead run in Flakes district?? I think he'd have a better chance to get elected there, if he really wants to get elected in AZ.  

19, Male, Conservative, NC-06 (SC-04 college)  

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by: aggou @ Fri Apr 01, 2011 at 23:53:25 PM UTC

Or at least...

There'd be a better chance of putting AZ-06 in play!

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

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by: atdleft @ Sat Apr 02, 2011 at 01:08:40 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

You mean this Trent Franks?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

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by: LookingOver @ Sat Apr 02, 2011 at 01:37:53 AM UTC

What an asshole

Sure, our country "won't survive" another few years of having a president who is agnostic on same-sex marriage and supports abortion rights. The cracks are appearing all around us as we speak.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

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by: SaoMagnifico @ Sat Apr 02, 2011 at 03:45:15 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

lol prayerfully

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

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by: duffman @ Sat Apr 02, 2011 at 02:42:57 AM UTC

To me this makes it seem as if Matt Salman

really is gearing up for a run. I'm not sure if he'd be a better candidate for Democrats to face, in the sense that Franks was.  

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by: jwaalk @ Sat Apr 02, 2011 at 04:26:09 AM UTC

Bottom line on AZ-Sen is this

And I've stuck to it and will stick to it all the way.  The race for the Democrats begins and ends with Gabrielle Giffords.  If she feels well and able enough to run for this seat, absent a politically toxic environment like 2010, she will win this seat.  

If she doesn't run, then democrats' chances of winning depend on a 2006 or 2008-esque environment.  No other candidate has the individual appeal that Giffords does, perhaps out of any federal race in the whole country this cycle.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

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by: StephenCLE @ Sat Apr 02, 2011 at 04:34:37 AM UTC

Giffords

I don't think she would necessarily beat Flake. Her favorables now would probably be something like 83/12, but people might suspect that she has some serious impairment even if she does well in debates and other public appearances. Absent any polling, my guess is that she would still be the favorite, but not a prohibitive one. (She might have a reverse Bradley effect in polls, as people might be unwilling to admit that they're going to vote against a national hero.) At a hair left of center across the board she's probably about as far from the median AZ voter as Flake, who is a near free-market purist on economic and fiscal issues but center-right on social issues.

I think she'd be a clear favorite over anyone else, though. Salmon came up short against Napolitano in 2002 in a good Republican year, and I think Giffords would do several points better than (2002) Nap even if not everyone is convinced that she's close to 100% again. I think any other random tea partier would be weaker than Salmon.  

41, Ind, CA-05

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by: sacman701 @ Sat Apr 02, 2011 at 14:57:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Good news

I've very happy to hear this.  The libertarian part of me loves Flake - after Ron Paul, he's the most libertarian person in the house and it will be nice to have him in the Senate if he can win.  I do hope Hayworthless tries to run against him in the primary.  After McCain trashed him, he'd never win statewide, even in a primary, so those who don't like Flake can waste their votes on him.  Or perhaps that old fool sheriff will finally run and lose.
Giffords is really the biggest threat to Flake now, and of course, that will depend on her health.  I hope she is healthy enough to run, but chooses not to.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

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by: Zornorph @ Sat Apr 02, 2011 at 05:14:36 AM UTC

The bigger issue is likely not

to be be her physical, but mental issues such as memory and speech functions which may make it a more difficult struggle to run such a strenuous, high-profile campaign, at least, any time in the next few years. I feel more like, if she runs for something, she will run for McCain's open seat in 2016.  

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by: jwaalk @ Sat Apr 02, 2011 at 06:50:09 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Flake is a shoe-in...

...at this point. Giffords is probably the only Democrat that can beat him, but I'd rather her take her time recovering instead of running into a brutal Senate campaign. If she recovers 100% then she's got a free-ride for any statewide seat in Arizona this decade.

I think the Dems best shot is probably Goddard, but Flake will play well to a lot of independents and even some conservative Democrats.  

24 - Democrat - AZ-01

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by: that flagstaff dude @ Mon Apr 04, 2011 at 00:14:11 AM UTC