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VA St. Sen. Howell Districts in Dave's App

by: TXObserver

Thu Mar 31, 2011 at 5:08 PM EDT

[Ed. note: This is impressive work. I took the liberty of moving the list of demographic & political info into a table. - David]

There was a request for the .drf file that I created for the Howell proposal of the VA State Senate, so why not make a diary.

For the .drf file, click here.

Caution: the Howell plan splits precincts, which I don't think Dave's App allows for. On some districts, it's a judgement call, like on the borders of the 15th & 20th districts or the 7th & 14th districts. The non-ability to split precincts is also why districts will have the variances in population.

And yes, the numbers correspond to the Howell numbers, i.e. District 1 below is District 1 in the Howell plan.

Data table below the fold.

TXObserver :: VA St. Sen. Howell Districts in Dave's App

District	Obama	McCain	White	Black	Hisp.	Asian	W VAP	B VAP	H VAP	A VAP	2000-09 D	2000-09 R
1	58%	42%	55%	31%	8%	3%	59%	29%	7%	4%	52%	48%
2	70%	30%	38%	51%	5%	3%	41%	50%	4%	3%	65%	35%
3	38%	62%	81%	13%	3%	2%	82%	12%	2%	2%	39%	62%
4	39%	61%	77%	15%	4%	1%	78%	15%	3%	1%	38%	62%
5	74%	26%	35%	55%	5%	3%	38%	53%	5%	3%	69%	32%
6	57%	43%	60%	26%	8%	3%	62%	25%	7%	3%	54%	46%
7	52%	48%	55%	28%	8%	7%	59%	24%	7%	7%	52%	48%
8	63%	37%	53%	30%	10%	5%	57%	28%	9%	5%	56%	44%
9	75%	25%	38%	55%	3%	2%	41%	52%	2%	2%	71%	29%
10	39%	61%	76%	15%	3%	3%	78%	16%	3%	3%	37%	63%
11	42%	58%	68%	25%	4%	1%	70%	25%	3%	1%	40%	60%
12	41%	59%	77%	11%	4%	7%	78%	11%	3%	6%	39%	61%
13	43%	57%	66%	21%	4%	6%	68%	21%	4%	6%	43%	57%
14	37%	63%	81%	9%	4%	3%	83%	9%	4%	3%	38%	62%
15	37%	64%	74%	22%	2%	1%	76%	21%	2%	1%	37%	63%
16	72%	29%	35%	53%	8%	2%	38%	52%	7%	2%	64%	37%
17	51%	49%	70%	17%	8%	2%	72%	17%	7%	2%	47%	53%
18	64%	36%	42%	52%	3%	1%	44%	51%	2%	1%	61%	39%
19	37%	63%	91%	4%	2%	1%	92%	4%	2%	1%	39%	61%
20	49%	51%	66%	28%	4%	1%	69%	27%	3%	0	49%	52%
21	57%	43%	73%	16%	4%	4%	76%	15%	4%	4%	55%	45%
22	51%	49%	65%	9%	10%	13%	67%	9%	9%	13%	46%	54%
23	37%	63%	80%	14%	2%	2%	82%	14%	2%	1%	39%	61%
24	36%	64%	88%	6%	3%	1%	89%	7%	3%	1%	35%	66%
25	58%	43%	81%	10%	4%	3%	82%	9%	3%	4%	56%	44%
26	41%	59%	86%	3%	7%	1%	88%	3%	6%	1%	38%	63%
27	43%	57%	83%	6%	7%	2%	85%	6%	6%	2%	40%	60%
28	44%	56%	71%	16%	7%	3%	73%	16%	6%	3%	41%	59%
29	61%	39%	41%	20%	28%	7%	45%	20%	25%	8%	52%	48%
30	66%	34%	62%	13%	16%	6%	64%	12%	14%	7%	64%	36%
31	62%	39%	68%	5%	12%	12%	69%	5%	11%	12%	60%	40%
32	61%	39%	68%	5%	9%	14%	71%	5%	8%	14%	59%	41%
33	59%	41%	48%	9%	20%	20%	51%	9%	19%	19%	52%	48%
34	57%	43%	61%	5%	11%	19%	63%	5%	10%	19%	54%	46%
35	66%	34%	42%	12%	26%	16%	45%	12%	25%	16%	63%	37%
36	64%	36%	42%	25%	22%	8%	46%	24%	20%	8%	59%	41%
37	57%	43%	52%	7%	15%	23%	54%	7%	14%	23%	52%	48%
38	41%	59%	94%	4%	1%	1%	94%	4%	1%	1%	47%	53%
39	59%	41%	54%	17%	13%	13%	57%	16%	12%	13%	54%	46%
40	33%	67%	95%	2%	1%	0	95%	2%	1%	0	38%	62%

Under the Howell lines:
21 Senate districts voted for Obama and have a history of voting Democratic
2 Senate districts voted for Obama but have a history of voting Republican
17 Senate districts voted for McCain and have a history of voting Republican

Tags: VA-St. Sen., Virginia Redistricting, (All Tags)

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VA St. Sen. Howell Districts in Dave's App | 27 comments

Thanks for putting this up

Too bad all of the free download sites are scuzzy, but this seemed to work.

by: andgarden @ Thu Mar 31, 2011 at 21:40:18 PM UTC

by: you @ soon

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This is great!

Thanks.

As a side note, would you be okay with me posting this over at Blue Virginia? I assume you don't have an account there and I believe you have to wait a week after creating an account there to post a diary. Given that some people there seemed to think that this proposal is somehow a bad map for Dems, I feel that having these numbers which show that it clearly isn't would be helpful. I'd give you credit, of course.

Male, VA-08

by: drobertson @ Thu Mar 31, 2011 at 21:49:34 PM UTC

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I might not

You don't want people to be distracted by incidental contiguity or population problems. If people are predisposed to dislike this map, that's what they'll focus on.

Looking at this, I think my biggest disagreement is with the 20th. I would have totally reconfigured it to be more Democratic. Also, I think they could have done a better job with the 7th to make it closer to a sure thing. I do very much like their 8th, though; it's exactly what I would have drawn.

by: andgarden @ Thu Mar 31, 2011 at 21:53:11 PM UTC

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by: you @ soon

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Agreed

It would have been nice to make the 20th more Democratic, but I think they gave into the incumbent's desire to keep more of his older district. The risk is when it is an open seat.

by: FreeDem @ Thu Mar 31, 2011 at 22:12:58 PM UTC

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That's the only explanation

When I was redoing the districts, I got the 20th to nearly 53-47 Obama/McCain. But you have to push the district to the east so I guess Reynolds preferred to keep more of his current district, which is a real screw job for the Dems as Reynolds isn't exactly a young man (67 years old).

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

by: GeoffreyVS @ Fri Apr 01, 2011 at 15:38:57 PM UTC

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Well, with Ward Armstrong cut out of the House map

They at least have someone they can run if he chooses to retire in the next couple cycles.

by: Johnny Longtorso @ Fri Apr 01, 2011 at 15:53:50 PM UTC

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by: you @ soon

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How Many Elections?

How many elections will Ward run in over the next few years? A lost cause against Merricks in the combined district this year, a statewide run in 2013, and then finally a potential State Senate in 2015? Busy man!

by: FreeDem @ Fri Apr 01, 2011 at 16:00:42 PM UTC

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I don't know why he would even bother trying to run against Merricks

He's got maybe 5 or 6 precincts of his old district in that district.

And a statewide run? Yikes, I can't believe he's even considering that. After the Deeds disaster, there's no way a DINO from rural Virginia is going to get the nomination for a statewide office. Not to mention how Puckett got crushed in the Lt. Gov. primary in 2005.

by: Johnny Longtorso @ Fri Apr 01, 2011 at 16:02:53 PM UTC

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Up to You

If you want to, feel free to.

by: TXObserver @ Thu Mar 31, 2011 at 22:14:47 PM UTC

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Okay, done

http://www.bluevirginia.us/dia...

Male, VA-08

by: drobertson @ Thu Mar 31, 2011 at 23:25:17 PM UTC

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By My Count

Of the 17 districts that voted for McCain there are two Democratic Senators. In the 38th is Senator Puckett, and there's almost no way to fix that. In the 20th is Senator Reynolds, who should be fine in his district now. But it's regrettable that they didn't make it more Democratic, but district would be a toss up in an open seat.

There is one Democrat in the Obama-Republican districts, Senator Houck in the 17th. It's more Democratic and contains a lot of areas that should be growing rapidly in the next decade, between Fredickbsburg, Albemarle, and the area around Lake Anna in between. This is actually one seat I'm worried about.

The other Obama-Republican district is the new 22nd, an open seat in Northern Virginia that is one of the Obama-Republican districts. It should be competitive throughout the decade. A win here would be a pickup for the Democrats.

There are two Obama-Democratic districts with significant chances, the new 8th in Richmond and the redrawn 7th in Virginia Beach. Both voted for Obama and have a history of voting Democratic. They would be a pickup for the Democrats.

Among the other Obama-Democratic seats I notice that Chuck Colgan's seat, the 29th, is significantly shored up and could be kept when he retires.

On paper this could allow for three more pickups for the Democrats, for a total of 25 assuming Reynolds and Puckett win reelection. Puckett's seat is a lost cause probably when he retires, but we could keep Reynold's seat and stay at 24. Assuming we can protect everything else.

If I had to pick areas for long term trends, once growth continues, I'd be hard pressed. Maybe the 11th, but I don't think it's trending Democratic and it's size would make it difficult for a challenger. Maybe the 12th, especially with growth around Fluvanna and its fickle swing vote. Maybe the 13th, but it shouldn't be trending Democratic. Maybe the 26th with an open seat and the right candidate? Maybe the 27th and 28th with growth?

by: FreeDem @ Thu Mar 31, 2011 at 22:34:41 PM UTC

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I agree on the 22nd

Especially since Dick Black is the likely Republican nominee. He was last seen parachuting into VA-01 and coming in 4th place at the Republican nominating convention. Now that he's been put into 31st, which goes into Arlington, he's pulling up steaks again and moving to the 22nd. Apparently he was also involved in some debacle about mailing plastic fetuses to people.

Here's a link to his announcement on a local conservative blog: http://www.tooconservative.com...

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08

by: M Riles @ Fri Apr 01, 2011 at 20:15:37 PM UTC

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Yikes

If anyone could lose that seat for the Republicans, Black could. However, it's still a very Republican district. A lot of the territory is currently represented by everyone's least-favorite wingnut, Del. Bob Marshall. It would be tough to find a strong Democratic candidate.

by: Johnny Longtorso @ Fri Apr 01, 2011 at 21:05:57 PM UTC

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Uphill battle, I agree

It is probably a couple points less Republican than the 2000-9 numbers indicate due to the large amount of growth. I have to think (or at least hope) that they had a candidate in mind if they were going to bother making that weird shaped seat. It looks like the only elected Dems in the district are 2 members of the Clarke County Board of Supervisors. I don't know anything about them, but I assume they'd have to be semi-credible.

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08

by: M Riles @ Fri Apr 01, 2011 at 21:30:11 PM UTC

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Well

I would like to think that Saslaw and company would do a good job recruiting them but I have almost zero faith in the Dem Senate leadership. The Democratic bench at the state level is not particularly strong and our leadership is not helping the cause.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

by: GeoffreyVS @ Fri Apr 01, 2011 at 21:56:34 PM UTC

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Table time!

DISTRICT	New Deeds %	Old Deeds %	Change	Incumbent	Party
1	46%	37%	9%	John Miller	D
2	60%	67%	-7%	Mamie Locke	D
3	30%	34%	-4%	Tommy Norment	R
4	29%	29%	0%	Ryan McDougle	R
5	64%	70%	-6%	Yvonne Miller	D
6	46%	42%	4%	Ralph Northam	D
7	43%	37%	6%	Frank Wagner	R
8	52%	33%	19%	Jeff McWaters*	R
9	66%	70%	-4%	Don McEachin	D
10	29%	33%	-4%	John Watkins	R
11	31%	34%	-3%	Stephen Martin	R
12	30%	33%	-3%	Walter Stosch	R
13	34%	36%	-2%	Fred Quayle	R
14	29%	34%	-5%	Harry Blevins	R
15	28%	36%	-8%	Frank Ruff	R
16	59%	64%	-5%	Henry Marsh	D
17	39%	33%	6%	Edd Houck	D
18	56%	59%	-3%	Louise Lucas	D
19	31%	33%	-2%	Bill Stanley	R
20	41%	33%	8%	Roscoe Reynolds	D
21	48%	48%	0%	John Edwards	D
22	35%	32%	3%	Ralph Smith*	R
23	30%	29%	1%	Stephen Newman	R
24	27%	30%	-3%	Emmett Hanger	R
25	54%	54%	0%	Creigh Deeds	D
26	29%	29%	0%	Mark Obenshain	R
27	31%	32%	-1%	Jill Holtzman Vogel	R
28	31%	33%	-2%	Richard Stuart	R
29	45%	38%	7%	Chuck Colgan	D
30	59%	63%	-4%	Patsy Ticer (retiring)	D
31	56%	65%	-9%	Mary Whipple (retiring)	D
32	55%	53%	2%	Janet Howell	D
33	45%	41%	4%	Mark Herring	D
34	47%	48%	-1%	Chap Petersen	D
35	58%	57%	1%	Dick Saslaw	D
36	51%	50%	1%	Toddy Puller	D
37	45%	43%	2%	Dave Marsden	D
38	34%	33%	1%	Phil Puckett	D
39	47%	45%	2%	George Barker	D
40	25%	25%	0%	William Wampler	R

The 8th and 22nd were eliminated and moved elsewhere. I put the current incumbents, but several have been moved around. Wagner and McWaters (and possibly Blevins) are in the 14th district. Smith and Newman are both in the 23rd. Wagner is threatening to move to Newport News to run in the 1st against Miller, while Smith has said he'd move to the 21st to challenge Edwards.

by: Johnny Longtorso @ Thu Mar 31, 2011 at 22:59:28 PM UTC

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Dude 31 is totally at risk now!!!!!11!!11!!

Snark obviously. Looking at the numbers I have no idea how NLS thought that the district is vulnerable. I have been following the redistricting dust up on blue virginia and NLS and have a lot of respect for how you (and DCCyclone and NotJMosby) have been explaining logically why the Dem gerrymander while continuously being met with BS by critics. Great Job!

As a Maryland Republican I wish we weak kneed Dems in the Old Line State like those who are criticizing the Howell plan.

by: Jfindl1 @ Fri Apr 01, 2011 at 00:19:30 AM UTC

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Great!

Marsden and Colgan are really shored up, and, looking at Deeds numbers one can see they really did more than it initially appears to improve Reynolds' district.

by: jwaalk @ Fri Apr 01, 2011 at 01:30:56 AM UTC

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Yeah...

Reynolds' district shed the two counties he did the worst in back in 2007 and picked up Danville and its environs. It's definitely a better district, but it would still probably go Republican in an open seat situation, unless I guess if Ward Armstrong ran.

Colgan is expected to retire, but he hasn't announced anything yet so I didn't make a note of it. The one thing that concerns me with his district is there aren't really any other Democrats of note in Prince William County. They've got Del. Luke Torian, one county supervisor, and the Commonwealth's Attorney who's been in office since 1968.

And I swear to God, if they run Jeanette Rishell for any office ever again, they deserve to lose.

by: Johnny Longtorso @ Fri Apr 01, 2011 at 01:38:27 AM UTC

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Watkins Proposal using Dave's App

So how does the Watkins proposal add up? Again, caution because precincts have been split.

1
48% Obama/52% McCain
64% White, 21% Black, 7% Hispanic, 5% Asian
VAP 67% White, 20% Black, 6% Hispanic, 6% Asian
2000-2009 46% Dem/54% Rep

2
45% Obama/55% McCain
72% White, 14% Black, 7% Hispanic, 4% Asian
VAP 75% White, 14% Black, 6% Hispanic, 4% Asian
2000-2009 43% Dem/57% Rep

3
45% Obama/55% McCain
63% White, 22% Black, 6% Hispanic, 6% Asian
VAP 65% White, 22% Black, 5% Hispanic, 6% Asian
2000-2009 43% Dem/57% Rep

4
70% Obama/30% McCain
36% White, 58% Black, 3% Hispanic, 1% Asian
VAP 38% White, 57% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 67% Dem/34% Rep

5
79% Obama/21% McCain
35% White, 53% Black, 6% Hispanic, 3% Asian
VAP 39% White, 50% Black, 6% Hispanic, 3% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 74% Dem/37% Rep

6
48% Obama/52% McCain
65% White, 22% Black, 6% Hispanic, 4% Asian
VAP 68% White, 21% Black, 5% Hispanic, 4% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 46% Dem/54% Rep

7
74% Obama/27% McCain
34% White, 54% Black, 6% Hispanic, 2% Asian
VAP 37% White, 52% Black, 6% Hispanic, 3% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 68% Dem/32% Rep

8
43% Obama/57% McCain
67% White, 26% Black, 3% Hispanic, 2% Asian
VAP 70% White, 25% Black, 3% Hispanic, 2% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 42% Dem/58% Rep

9
46% Obama/54% McCain
72% White, 17% Black, 5% Hispanic, 3% Asian
VAP 74% White, 16% Black, 5% Hispanic, 3% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 44% Dem/56% Rep

10
78% Obama/22% McCain
33% White, 59% Black, 3% Hispanic, 2% Asian
VAP 37% White, 56% Black, 3% Hispanic, 3% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 74% Dem/26% Rep

11
77% Obama/23% McCain
30% White, 57% Black, 10% Hispanic, 2% Asian
VAP 32% White, 56% Black, 9% Hispanic, 2% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 70% Dem/30% Rep

12
44% Obama/56% McCain
66% White, 22% Black, 7% Hispanic, 3% Asian
VAP 69% White, 21% Black, 6% Hispanic, 3% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 40% Dem/60% Rep

13
48% Obama/52% McCain
64% White, 32% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian
VAP 65% White, 31% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 45% Dem/55% Rep

14
43% Obama/57% McCain
81% White, 12% Black, 3% Hispanic, 3% Asian
VAP 82% White, 12% Black, 3% Hispanic, 3% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 41% Dem/59% Rep

15
45% Obama/55% McCain
70% White, 12% Black, 6% Hispanic, 10% Asian
VAP 72% White, 12% Black, 5% Hispanic, 9% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 41% Dem/59% Rep

16
38% Obama/62% McCain
79% White, 16% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian
VAP 79% White, 16% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 37% Dem/63% Rep

17
46% Obama/54% McCain
69% White, 19% Black, 7% Hispanic, 2% Asian
VAP 71% White, 19% Black, 6% Hispanic, 2% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 43% Dem/57% Rep

18
49% Obama/51% McCain
67% White, 18% Black, 9% Hispanic, 3% Asian
VAP 70% White, 18% Black, 8% Hispanic, 3% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 45% Dem/55% Rep

19
51% Obama/49% McCain
55% White, 12% Black, 22% Hispanic, 8% Asian
VAP 58% White, 12% Black, 20% Hispanic, 8% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 45% Dem/55% Rep

20
63% Obama/37% McCain
40% White, 25% Black, 23% Hispanic, 7% Asian
VAP 44% White, 25% Black, 21% Hispanic, 8% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 56% Dem/44% Rep

21
55% Obama/45% McCain
60% White, 6% Black, 13% Hispanic, 18% Asian
VAP 62% White, 6% Black, 12% Hispanic, 18% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 51% Dem/49% Rep

22
63% Obama/37% McCain
49% White, 18% Black, 18% Hispanic, 11% Asian
VAP 52% White, 18% Black, 17% Hispanic, 11% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 59% Dem/41% Rep

23
69% Obama/31% McCain
49% White, 19% Black, 19% Hispanic, 11% Asian
VAP 52% White, 18% Black, 17% Hispanic, 11% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 67% Dem/33% Rep

24
69% Obama/31% McCain
64% White, 8% Black, 15% Hispanic, 10% Asian
VAP 66% White, 8% Black, 14% Hispanic, 10% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 69% Dem/31% McCain

25
63% Obama/37% McCain
50% White, 6% Black, 22% Hispanic, 18% Asian
VAP 52% White, 6% Black, 20% Hispanic, 19% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 61% Dem/39% Rep

26
57% Obama/43% McCain
60% White, 6% Black, 11% Hispanic, 19% Asian
VAP 63% White, 6% Black, 10% Hispanic, 19% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 54% Dem/46% Rep

27
59% Obama/41% McCain
60% White, 6% Black, 11% Hispanic, 19% Asian
VAP 63% White, 6% Black, 11% Hispanic, 19% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 56% Dem/44% Rep

28
55% Obama/45% McCain
59% White, 8% Black, 16% Hispanic, 14% Asian
VAP 61% White, 8% Black, 15% Hispanic, 14% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 49% Dem/51% Rep

29
50% Obama/50% McCain (49.9% Obama/50.1% McCain)
66% White, 6% Black, 9% Hispanic, 16% Asian
VAP 68% White, 6% Black, 8% Hispanic, 16% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 45% Dem/55% Rep

30
42% Obama/58% McCain
83% White, 6% Black, 7% Hispanic, 1% Asian
VAP 85% White, 6% Black, 6% Hispanic, 1% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 40% Dem/60% Rep

31
42% Obama/58% McCain
83% White, 5% Black, 8% Hispanic, 1% Asian
VAP 86% White, 5% Black, 7% Hispanic, 1% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 38% Dem/63% Rep

32
37% Obama/64% McCain
89% White, 6% Black, 3% Hispanic, 1% Asian
VAP 90% White, 6% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 35% Dem/65% Rep

33
59% Obama/41% McCain
75% White, 14% Black, 5% Hispanic, 4% Asian
VAP 77% White, 13% Black, 45 Hispanic, 4% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 56% Dem/44% Rep

34
47% Obama/53% McCain
87% White, 6% Black, 2% Hispanic, 3% Asian
VAP 88% White, 5% Black, 2% Hispanic, 3% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 48% Dem/52% Rep

35
47% Obama/53% McCain
76% White, 16% Black, 4% Hispanic, 2% Asian
VAP 79% White, 15% Black, 3% Hispanic, 2% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 46% Dem/54% Rep

36
37% Obama/63% McCain
77% White, 17% Black, 2% Hispanic, 2% Asian
VAP 79% White, 16% Black, 2% Hispanic, 2% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 38% Dem/62% Rep

37
41% Obama/59% McCain
73% White, 23% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian
VAP 75% White, 22% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 41% Dem/59% Rep

38
41% Obama/59% McCain
84% White, 11% Black, 4% Hispanic, 1% Asian
VAP 85% White, 11% Black, 3% Hispanic
Avg. 2000-2009 43% Dem/57% Rep

39
40% Obama/60% McCain
94% White, 3% Black, 1% Hispanic, 1% Asian
VAP 95% White, 3% Black, 1% Hispanic, 1% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 45% Dem/55% Rep

40
34% Obama/66% McCain
94% White, 3% Black, 1% Hispanic
VAP 95% White, 3% Black, 1% Hispanic
Avg. 2000-2009 39% Dem/61% Rep

Under the Watkins proposal:
15 districts voted for Obama and have a history of voting Democratic
1 district voted for Obama and has a history of voting Republican
24 districts voted for McCain and have a history of voting Republican

by: TXObserver @ Fri Apr 01, 2011 at 00:40:00 AM UTC

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By my count

The Democrats would have a lock on 13 seats, and would top out at 18, assuming Deeds, Houck, Reynolds, Puckett, and Marsden managed to hold on to their seats. But that's fair, right?

by: Johnny Longtorso @ Fri Apr 01, 2011 at 01:45:20 AM UTC

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NLS would like this one

Snickers

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

by: GeoffreyVS @ Fri Apr 01, 2011 at 16:09:53 PM UTC

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Lowkell sure is commenting a ton on your map.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

by: LookingOver @ Fri Apr 01, 2011 at 05:48:41 AM UTC

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oops, wrong diary

It's late.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

by: LookingOver @ Fri Apr 01, 2011 at 05:53:29 AM UTC

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I've done some refinements of my own

but here are the biggest two:

My 20th SD:

55% Obama, 45% McCain
53% Average Dem, 47% Average Rep

My 7th:

59% Obama, 41% McCain
53.6% Average Dem, 46.4% Average Republican.

No other Democrat needed to be weakened.

by: andgarden @ Fri Apr 01, 2011 at 21:48:41 PM UTC

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The 20th

is really the only major misstep in the plan. I gather it was drawn the way it is because that's how Reynolds wants it, but it could be much better as you show.

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08

by: M Riles @ Sat Apr 02, 2011 at 03:35:03 AM UTC

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FYI

They've posted an updated map on the DLS site. It doesn't look like much has changed; they swapped precincts between the 7th and 14th to put Frank Wagner into the 7th, and they moved most of the Northern Neck into the 4th.

by: Johnny Longtorso @ Mon Apr 04, 2011 at 15:25:35 PM UTC

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VA St. Sen. Howell Districts in Dave's App | 27 comments