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SSP Daily Digest: 3/31

by: DavidNYC

Thu Mar 31, 2011 at 8:16 AM EDT


Senate:

HI-Sen: Charles Djou reiterated that he'd wait until fellow GOPer Linda Lingle decides whether to run, which he expects by this summer. (So does that mean until Sept. 21st?)

MA-Sen: This is some... creative spin from the DSCC. Dems, both named and un-named, are saying that the failure of a Democratic challenger to emerge against Scott Brown is all part of a plan, one that involves attacking Brown (by various proxies, it would seem) while giving the Republicans no Dem to attack in response. This plan is so super-genious, it ought to continue right up until November 6th, 2012.

NV-Sen: The Lahontan Valley News, covering a Jeff-Jack dinner up north that Rep. Shelley Berkley just attended, says that the congresswoman " confirmed she wants to run" for Senate - but those are their words, not hers. Please hold the microphone closer to the horse's mouth!

VA-Sen: President Obama showered some praise on Tim Kaine at a couple of fundraisers in NYC on Tuesday night. Is this part of a lengthy marketing campaign, or an attempted kick in the pants?

Gubernatorial:

CA-Gov: A lone unnamed source tells Phillip Matier and Andrew Ross of the SF Chronicle that newly-elected Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) is planning to run for governor... in 2014. That would mean he either expects the Hon. Gov Jerry Brown, who will be 76 by then, to not run again, or he thinks it would be a good idea to challenge Brown in a primary. Given that it's Newsom we're talking about, I wouldn't be surprised if it's the latter.

WV-Gov: Rick Thompson has another ad out. I'm told that several other Dems are on the air, but I checked all of their YouTube accounts and found no other ads.

House:

CA-36: The League of Conservation Voters just came out for Debra Bowen, while Rep. Linda Sanchez threw her support behind Janice Hahn.

NY-26: Dem Kathy Hochul is out with her first ad (NWOTSOTB), in which she touts her accomplishments as a politician... all of which seem to have to do with cars, in one way or another.

WI-07: Sean Duffy is just a total asshole, but my heart really goes out to the guy who questioned him at a town hall. Said the questioner:

I'm a builder. I haven't been building too many things in the last couple years with the economy down. My wife is a teacher. I'm fortunate enough to take a bus driving job. Love it. Just love it. But it's not very much money of course. It's working for us.

He drives a bus, and still considers himself lucky. Sean Duffy earns $174,000 a year as a member of Congress and complains that "I struggle to meet my bills." He also declared that the benefits the builder/bus driver's wife gets as a state employee are "gold-plated" and are better than those he gets as a federal employee. As Steve archly notes: "What, they don't have an Office of the Attending Physician in Marinette or Eau Claire?"

Other Races:

Suffolk Co. Lege: It's some good news... for John McCain! It may also be further down into the weeds than we've ever gone at SSP. A Democrat, Sarah Anker, appears to have won a special election in a deeply Republican seat in the Suffolk County Legislature. Republicans are trying to claim that County Exec. Steve Levy's very high-profile troubles with the law (see SSP Amazing Digest #325) weighed them down in this race... but Levy's only been a Republican for less than a year!

Remainders:

Farm Subsidies: An organization called the Environmental Working Group has a fascinating look at the 23 members of Congress (17 Republicans, 6 Democrats) who have received farm subsidies since 1995. Over the last fifteen years, this group of Republicans has pulled in over ten times as much ($5.3 million vs. $500K) than the Dems. Farm subsidies have been a campaign trail issue - they enrage teabaggers, who savaged the #1 recipient, TN-08 Rep. and agribusiness kingpin Stephen Fincher, in the GOP primary last year over the $3.4 million in federal largesse he's received over the years. The piece also notes that Dems tried to protect rural members by preserving the status quo back in 2008, but that of course has completely failed. With most of those big-age pols now washed out to the hog lagoon, maybe, just maybe, official Democratic policy toward these awful subsidies will change.

Voter Suppression: The AP has a good roundup on the stepped-up Republican efforts to pass voter ID laws - despite the expense caused by these laws, and by the fact that pretty much no one nowhere has ever proven a single one of these overblown charges of "VOTER FRAUD!!!!!!!!111111111". States on the list include Alabama, Arkansas, Kansas, Ohio, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas. Fortunately, in Democratic-controlled Arkansas, the idea died in the Senate after it passed the House.

Fundraising: Today is the first day of the rest of your life. It's also the last day of the first fundraising quarter of the year, so time to start thinking about donations to your favorite Democrats.

Redistricting Roundup:

DC: The District of Columbia doesn't often appear in the digest, but this fits our style: The site Greater Greater Washington has a Google Maps-based game of sorts where you can redistrict the city's wards.

Florida: Republican legislative leaders have forwarded on Florida's redistricting ballot measures (passed last year) to the Dept. of Justice for pre-clearance - an application weirdo Gov. Rick Scott withdrew earlier this year. But Mike Haridopolos (oh, you know him) and Dean Cannon, his counterpart in the state House, drafted their request to the DoJ in a way deliberately designed to undermine the amendments. They claimed they would hurt minority voting rights, but I don't really see how that's possible, since the VRA would trump any state laws. Hopefully the DoJ will see through this charade and clear these amendments promptly.

Iowa: Start hitting refresh! Iowa's first-draft federal map will come out this morning.

Louisiana: The state House voted to accept a new map on Tuesday, by a 70-28 margin. Most of the votes against were from black Democrats and also from Republicans from Jefferson Parish, which apparently loses a seat to Orleans Parish under this plan.

Maine: Maine state law says that redistricting must be done in 2013 - which of course would be after the next round of Congressional elections. Two Mainers have filed a lawsuit challenging this practice on "one person, one vote" grounds, pointing out that every other state (except Montana, where federal redistricting isn't an issue) redraws their maps as soon as they get new Census data in.

New York: Republican state Sen. Majority Leader Dean Skelos declared last night that redistricting reform is dead. He said the Senate would not take up legislation that would create an independent commission.

Pennsylvania: Everyone seems to expect that Dems Jason Altmire and Mark Critz will get thrown into a single district by Republicans. Politico examines what the contours of such a mashup might look like.

Texas: The Texas Tribune did a National Review-style poll of "insiders," asking them what the state's four new congressional districts will look like. 54% said they'll be 3-1 Republican, while 37% said 2-2 Dem.

DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 3/31
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Grasping for straws by the RPOF
Glad they finally resubmitted it, though.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


FL-Redistricting: Is Corinne Brown still suing?
Goodness, how selfish she looks for opposing fairer districts that will benefit her friggin' party.  I guess she fears moving northwards and having to face some Tallahasse-based candidate or something.  Her official complaint (that the Props don't respect VRA) is groundless.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
IN-Sen
"Given the direction of the GOP these days and the public's continued desire of change, it would be a stunning achievement if Lugar were to win renomination next year in a one-on-one race."

http://www.rollcall.com/issues...


I wish PPP would spend the money
and poll in Indiana.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Maybe David can sort something with Markos
I can't see them paying themselves.

[ Parent ]
Can't we donate to them?
I have no idea how much it costs to commission a poll, but if there's a way for them to let us bite the cost of the poll with them, perhaps it can be done. I don't know about you, but I'd be willing to chip in a small sum.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
A good live-caller poll costs in the several thousands of dollars......
The cost varies according to desired sample size and the number of questions, but you can go as high as $10K for a really good comprehensive poll.  Needless to say, robopolls are much cheaper.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
And obviously they can't robocall in IN
They did do one in 2008 and Tom has said they would consider doing something in ND where the law is similar if it looks competitive. That being said, I'm sure there will be a poll at some point from somebody.

[ Parent ]
I received a robo call several weeks
before the election. I can't remember which polling outfit it was.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Really?
Purely a recorded voice? It was probably SurveyUSA.

[ Parent ]
Yep.


19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Strange
Must have found a way around it somehow.  

[ Parent ]
Yeah, the "way around it" is to just do it anyway, kinda like shoplifting......
Law, shmaw!  Just do it and hope you don't get caught!

I wouldn't be surprised if it's as simple as that.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
I suspect you may be right


[ Parent ]
I don't think a reputable pollster could afford that
Because the fines are so huge. But the main way around it, which Rasmussen supposedly uses, is that you can call someone via IVR if you've previously gotten permission from them.

Anyhow, yeah, it's waaaaaaaaaaaaay too early to consider polling Indiana right now. We do include Indiana in our national poll, at obscene expense for just a handful of calls each week. Very annoying. Not sure what we'll do if/when it becomes necessary to do a live interview poll of the state (which I can all but assure you won't be until next year), but maybe passing the hat is not a bad idea....


[ Parent ]
Right,
but if a poll costs $10,0000, you could cover that cost by getting 2,000 people to contribute $5 each. Or rather, figure out the difference between what it would cost if they did it like they do in other states and what it would cost if they did it in Indiana and ask people to pick up the difference. I think between this site and the regular Daily Kos site, they could find enough people to contribute.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I bet it would be harder than you think to get contributions for that, especially this early......
The world of political junkies is rather small, and the subset of campaigns and elections junkies is much smaller yet.

That, plus it's so early that people are not going to have the motivation quite yet to give up their money for a poll of this race.  Honestly, I wouldn't at this stage, I would just wait to see how things develop.

If by early next year we haven't seen any polling, I bet PPP/DailyKos might just do it, without seeking a special contribution.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Yup, I dont care enough to pay myself!
Think of it as a Christmas present you know you want to ask for already on March 31st.

[ Parent ]
The the thing is
Would it tell us anything we didn't already know? Maybe closer to the primary would be a better use of resources once the campaign has developed a little more. Maybe if and when Donnelly or whoever gets in on the Democratic side.

[ Parent ]
It wouldn't be the worst thing
in the world to have some sort of numbers attached to this race. All of the usual caveats, like the race changing as candidates attack each other and as the economic picture becomes clearer, would apply, but it'd still be worth it. Imagine how nice it would be to see the Democratic candidate within single digits.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I can't say I'm thrilled
with the man, but I am thrilled at the idea of keeping the Senate for at least two more years.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Wrong comment!


19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Don't get me wrong
I would love to see some numbers.

[ Parent ]
I just hope the Democrats
in Indiana have a candidate ready. Murdock is not a fringe candidate like Angle, but he's not Lugar, who as earned the respect of most people in the state after decades of service. He can be beaten, particularly if the Obama campaign contests the state vigorously, which it probably will at least at first.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Donnelly seems serious
If the comments from yesterday's digest are anything to go by.

[ Parent ]
True.
He's not that bad, from a glance of his record. I wish there were someone a little more progressive, but hell, if Donnelly would be a strong candidate, we can get him in there now and work on getting someone a little more liberal in 2016 when Coats is up again.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I'd be very happy with Donnelly......
It's Indiana!  It's a testament to Obama's star power and personal appeal that he could win the state, but virtually no one else as liberal as him can win Indiana.

So Donnelly is just fine.

I have no problem with Senators and Congressmen who vote as conservaDems as long as they don't go on TV and step on their own party, like Bayh and Lieberman always have.  There are plenty of people who do as their states and districts demand but still are team players on our side.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Very much disagree.
This might be blind optimism on my part, or it might be some unlikely combination of Obama contesting the state in a very good year for Democrats while being from a neighboring state and people responding positively after never being paid much attention, but I have to think Indiana is more open to voting for Democrats than we think. After all, what's the huge difference between it and Ohio? Why would someone like John Kerry get very close in Ohio but not in Indiana? I have to think it's mostly because he showed up in Ohio but not in Indiana, despite some sort of long-term habitual trends possibly working against him. And perhaps Obama will lose Indiana, even if he wins bigger than he did last time. But if he does, it won't be by almost 20 points. It'll probably be like four or five, and in the process, he will probably have arrested whatever sort of habits against our party voters have at the presidential level.

Anyway, I agree with you last lines. As much as I might bitch about some people, we need the Gene Taylors and Frank Kratovils in our party in order to be the Big Tent party. I just wish some of them kept their mouths shut when it comes to bashing the leadership.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
Someone big needs to declare soon
in Massachusetts. I don't care who. If it's Lynch we can worry about that problem later.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

Clearly they are spinning
But there is some truth to what the DSCC says. It would be nice to have candidates in all these races but we aren't even in April yet. I don't think we should be too concerned just yet.

[ Parent ]
Correct.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Exactly
Plus, Setti Warren was reported to be staffing up, Khazei has an exploratory committee, Massie is in, others are considering (Driscoll, Capuano, Lynch etc). You can debate whether these are the best candidates, but there's no consensus on who that would be anyway, and it's clear that a field is emerging. Put it this way; the MA-Sen Democratic field is as far it it's development as the GOP presidential field, despite being lower profile and requiring less prep comparatively.

[ Parent ]
Mayor Warren is a great candidate
I'd much rather see him in the Senate than the likes of Rep. Capuano, much less the loathsome Rep. Lynch, and I'm glad he appears set to jump in.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
And he's African American!


19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
I'm also glad to see
that unions both public and private are going to work hard to oppose him in the campaign.  They should also make references to Wisconsin Republicans in opposing him.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
More
"But the DSCC received some bad news this week when a poll it commissioned found that Brown's popularity is soaring. The survey, which has been seen by at least one D.C. insider and was detailed for Salon, measured Brown's approval rating at 73 percent -- easily surpassing the scores for Barack Obama and the state's two top Democrats,  Gov. Deval Patrick and Sen. John Kerry. It also found him running over the magic 50 percent mark against every potential Democratic challenger, and crushing the strongest perceived Democrats (Reps. Michael Capuano and Ed Markey and former Rep. Marty Meehan) by double-digit margins. The results only grew closer when respondents were primed with negative information about Brown."

http://www.salon.com/news/scot...


[ Parent ]
I see his support
as being a mile wide and a foot deep.  He's no William Weld.  Weld was more liberal and more charismatic.

That's also why it is important that they tie him to national Republicans.  He needs to be made into the next Linc Chafee.  Finally, that poll on approval seems overly high.  PPP got it in the 50's.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Me too
Once again, he hasn't been directly challenged. Even here it suggests an actual campaign will bring his numbers down.

[ Parent ]
Indeed
They need to go all-out.  Unions need to tell their members that Republicans are not looking out for working class interests (cue Wisconsin imagery) and will sell out the working class at a moment's notice.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
And that his voting record
Compares to Republicans from Alabama and Tennessee.

[ Parent ]
Still, that topline looks too high
PPP's last poll had him in the high 50's.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
That was before his book tour/Being the star of the St. Patrick's Day dinner
He has been getting non-stop good press for the last few months. That tends to have a big impact on one's numbers.

Take a look at this piece by one of Deval's political advisors.

http://www.boston.com/bostongl...

This is typical of the coverage he gets.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent


[ Parent ]
Quote
"This Brown guy knows how to act like a Democrat."

Shame he doesn't vote like one. Yet again, unless he gets a free pass a second time this will be a problem for him going forward. He isn't going to be running in a vacuum. But I have no doubt he is going to be tough to beat.


[ Parent ]
Absolutely.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Contrary to the talk about Presidential Coatails
I suspect he is very lucky to be up in 2012 rather than 2014 or 2016. The prospect of a GOP Senate is a hypothetical rather than an immediate concern, which makes it much harder to run on it outside of politically engaged voters. And as bad as it may seem, this St. Paddies stuff actually matters to people.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

[ Parent ]
It was a hypothetical in 2006 too
Besides, it is only one of a number of issues that can be used against him.

[ Parent ]
No there was George Bush
And the only way to put a check on him was to have a Democratic Senate. That simple logic doomed Chaffee.

Obama is President right now, and the Democrats control the senate. In order to run that argument now it would go "Brown's seat is the only thing standing between us and disaster assuming Obama loses and we lose 2 but not more than 3 seats in the Senate else-ware. Otherwise it doesn't matter."

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent


[ Parent ]
Over complication
Do you want Democrats to control the senate, yes or no? There was no guarantee Chafee would be the decisive seat back then either.  

[ Parent ]
Yes, parade stuff matters for short-term likeability.
But it's a-political (i.e. political issues are left behind and people just have fun being who they are).  When it gets down to political matters, he won't be as lucky.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
what goes up, must come down


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
This far out, it matters little.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
He's going to take a pounding of negative ads
When you are at 73% approval rating, the only place to go is down.  That number will absolutely go down, but enough for him to lose?  I'll reserve that judgement for closer to election day.  And I still consider him untested.  He beat Martha Coakley during the height of Dems looking weak and ineffective, let's see what he can do facing an actual opponent during an actual election day turn-out, with the Democrats no longer looking like flailing children in every news article.  (If only Lieberdouche hadn't retired, seeing him lose would have been such sweet revenge for him bringing us all crashing down on HCR.)

[ Parent ]
There is a serious problem
If Lynch gets in this is the sequence of events:

1. Lynch Announces
2. Setti Warren, whose campaign is managed by the woman who managed the campaign of Lynch's primary challenger runs a blood and guts scorched earth campaign against Lynch.
3. Lynch loses, endorses Brown, and all his voters go to Brown.
4. Brown wins 61-39 while Obama carries the state. Yes thats right, there is serious concern about Setti dropping below 40 in this scenario.

Setti is potentially a decent candidate down the road, but right now he is a one year Mayor of Newton who narrowly beat a long-time state rep whose campaign is going to be managed by one of the most divisive figures in MA Democratic politics. And its hard to think of a worse statewide base against Brown than Newton.

All the hope in mainstream Democratic circles in-state is focused on the hope that Lt. Gov Tim Murray decides to run.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent


[ Parent ]
Indeed
Although I don't see Lynch endorsing Brown, nor the final gap being that large.

Yes, Tim Murray would be good, but if he is considering, they are keeping that hushed up.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Its a worst case
Smulowitz/Harkins version 2.0.

The problem is that their is very very bad blood between Lynch and Setti's people, and Setti's road to a primary victory would be going very negative on Lynch.

Its not necessarily an issue otherwise, but given that Lynch was the member of the delegation most likely to run, its an irritation.

See Dan Payne's piece that I linked to above. Thats an effort to float Tim Murray if I ever saw one.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent


[ Parent ]
Rep. Lynch isn't that powerful, is he?
My impression of him has always been that he has just enough clout in his district to hang onto the Democratic nomination every two years, but he's not terribly popular, especially statewide. That could be entirely off-base.

I don't know much about Lt. Gov. Murray, and I haven't heard his name bandied about at all. Can you say more about him?

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


[ Parent ]
He isn't
But he has a strong following among white ethnic voters, and that would be the weak link in any Setti Warren coaltion.

The primary would be

Ex-union leader Irish Poll from South Boston v. One-year African American Mayor of one of the richest towns in the state

Such a primary would turn on cultural questions of who is a Democrat in Massachusetts - professional and academics or working-class voters. That is not a debate Democrats want to have, especially if the former win, because the latter will happily vote for Brown in the general.

And its precisely because Lynch is approaching the end of his career that he is considering a hail mary challenge to Brown. And why he has little to lose in throwing a tantrum if he loses a primary.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent


[ Parent ]
If Lynch is
anything of a former union leader, he'll know better than to do anything that helps Brown much.  Also, the imagery of a tantrum is funny.

I really hope they cut out Tierney.  He poses no threat at all.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Tierney
Will have trouble enough with his own seat. He has Tisei as an opponent, and a redistricting committee that likes Richard better than they do him. Not to mention quite a few people who would like to run against a Congressman Tisei later in the decade, and therefore aren't particularly concerned with his security.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

[ Parent ]
Quote
"Not to mention quite a few people who would like to run against a Congressman Tisei later in the decade, and therefore aren't particularly concerned with his security."

That was the argument some made about Brown. Very dangerous.


[ Parent ]
The redistricting committee can
cut apart his district and make it the one that is dismantled.  That way, they get rid of Tierney and the threat of Tisei.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Its hard to take apart
Without causing Tsongas trouble. And so far at least, geographical concerns seem to be trumping ideology this year in MA. The Senate chair is from Western MA and wants two districts out there. The House Chair is from South of Boston and wants to preserve Boston, and its minority identity, preferably in separate seats if possible. That leaves very limited options other than moving all of the north of Boston seats to the South-West.

Plus the easiest thing to do for the Sixth is to add Woburn, Winchester, and Stoneham to it. They made sense as communities of interest.

Tierney will not want this, because it puts 100% of Tisei's old Senate seat in the district. Other Democrats will want it however, because it puts Katharine Clark, the new occupant of Tisei's seat, also entirely into the district, and basically gives her a designer seat for later-on.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent


[ Parent ]
Why is Lynch that vulnerable
to Tisei? Is his area of the state trending towards the Republicans that much?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Tierney vulnerable not Lynch


[ Parent ]
Oops, my bad.
But again, why is Tierney so vulnerable?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
His wife went to jail.
And he may have been complicit in the fraud she was convicted for.  I think that's it, but I might have misremembered.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
So it's the candidate
rather than the district itself?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
nt
ethics issues, his wife is in jail right now i believe

[ Parent ]
I understand what you're saying
But there's something more than a little distasteful--even if it's true--about the assumption that a black candidate from a rich suburb is automatically the candidate of "professionals and academics".  AFAIK, Lynch is the only one of these two with a degree from Harvard.  And Warren went to Boston College and seems to be a veteran.  If he was white, would there be the same assumption about him?  

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]
It has very little to do with him
And everything to do with:

Where he is the Mayor of(Newton)
Who his campaign manager is(Deborah Shah)
Who she is going to hire
And how a primary is going to play out

Setti on the other hand has a decent biography with Iraq and BC. His problem will be getting it out there. Bio ads are usually considered a far worse value than attack ads, which is stupid, since they are how Brown won.

I could be wrong. But everything I have seen so far of Setti Warren for Senate, as opposed to say, Setti Warren Mayor of Newton, is not promising.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent


[ Parent ]
Which is precisely why Mayor Warren needs to go up with bio spots
If he doesn't, he doesn't deserve to win, 'nuff said. There are some knock-down, drag-out races where bio spots don't matter, and then there's a race where you need to introduce yourself and get the people behind you because you're a great guy, and then pulverize the guy you're running against.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
The worry
seems to be more about where he's from than anything else, which is understandable. People in Texas think Austin might as well be a part of a different state, if not a different country, or so I have heard.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Brown would never win by that margin
That would almost be equal to what Obama's margin will likely be in the state.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
He also...what?
You forgot to finish your sentence:
HI-Sen: Charles Djou reiterated that he'd wait until fellow GOPer Linda Lingle decides whether to run, which he expects by this summer. (So does that mean until Sept. 21st?) He also


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

What's the point.


19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
He also
...would have about as much chance in the general as Alvin Greene did, since he has an R next to his name in a state Obama won by 45 points.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
I think Djou would be competitive against
Alvin Greene for HI-Sen... or even SC-Sen ;)

[ Parent ]
Hah!
Yes, I left it as an exercise to the reader. :)

[ Parent ]
I don't know if Brown...
Can run for another term, as he was the first Governor to be hit by term limits. He found a loophole to run for this third term, but I'll have to see if a fourth is possible. If not, then there's nothing stopping Newsom from coveting the job... AGAIN!

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


i am pretty sure
The term limits were against more than 2 consecutively terms. That isn't going to be an issue in 2014. though he may choose to hang it up. He has been in the political arena forever.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
He can, but he may not.
Apparently California's term limits law allows for two consecutive terms served after 1990, so Brown can indeed run again... But there have been calls for a one term pledge, and Brown himself has hinted that he might not run again in 2014.

Gavin Newsom can be quite haughty, but does he really want to be shamed again by Jerry Brown?

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
making he can't get re-elected
I was speaking with a professor the other night and he said that as far back as last year political experts in the state expected the next governor to be unable to win a second term.  Mainly because of the severity of the recession, the budget's necessary to fill the deficit and the state's tendency to recover from recessions late.  I'm not sure of California's ability to recover in comparison to connecticut, but it seems that Brown's going to have to pass a lot of contentious budgets filled with cuts and new taxes over the new four years.    

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
the first word should be "maybe"
n/t

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
that makes a lot of sense
Former Gov. Paterson probably could have gotten another term if he got an easy budget to rubber stamp.

[ Parent ]
Newsom's problem is Brown is doing some extraordinary work right now
He's even garnering approval from many California conservatives who, presumedly, weren't Brown's most ardent fans at the start. Granted, Newsom would probably hit Brown from the left, but I'd still be stunned if he managed to even break 30% vs. a popular incumbent. I think, despite his Lt. Gov. victory, Newsom isn't exactly the freshest face, either.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Too much on Newsom's plate.
He's got to lead the legislature, run for governor in a few years, and save Gotham City at the same time? That's way too much on Newsom's plate.

http://www.google.com/imgres?i...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
He definitely can
I looked it up last night when I was writing that bullet just to be sure. In fact, some jokers last year were advocating that he make a single-term pledge, so that he could "regain momentum" against Meg Whitman.

[ Parent ]
Btw, Shelley really does want to run...
But she's faced a whole lot of skepticism from the DSCC. And recently, that skepticism from the DC crowd has been spreading here. (Over the weekend, some folks were telling me they did NOT want Shelley running, and preferred Catherine Cortez Masto instead.) She must be hoping Mark Mellman's new poll numbers will silence the critics and skeptics. She certainly would not have released them been OK with the "leak" if they showed her losing badly to Heller, as PPP did earlier this year.

Again, remember that as good as PPP's national record may be, they have a history of under-sampling traditionally Democratic friendly voters. Mellman, OTOH, is considered polling platinum here in Nevada.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


Do you want Berkley
too run?

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Why?
Is her campaigning lackluster?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Nope. Shelley's great at campaigning.
In fact, Shelley Berkley has a reputation as a tireless campaigner AND prodigious fundraiser.

Rather, the DSCC is worried that a Jewish Las Vegas woman with a New York accent can't win Washoe and the rurals. That's why this poll is so important. Shelley released it so she can silence them and the other naysayers and prove that she can indeed win, even beat "Mr. Golden Boy" Dean Heller himself. The DSCC has made it clear they prefer Cortez Masto or Miller running, but neither will do so if Shelley makes the final jump in (and Ross Miller still seems more interested in running for Governor in 2014 than ever being confined to DC).

So if Shelley indeed jumps in, she can now point to these numbers and get Harry Reid to back her up in telling Patty Murray and the DC folks to back off and let her run.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
I wonder about the internals w/r/t Washoe and the rural areas
Presumably that'll be part of her presentation to Murray, etc.

Or do you think Shelley can sweep Vegas with a big enough margin?


[ Parent ]
Clark County may be enough...
But only barely, depending on how many Obama Vegas voters keep going down the ballot next year. Winning Washoe is quite helpful in securing Dem victory, and holding down the GOP margins in the rurals can clinch it. I've always figured Shelley will run at least somewhat like Harry did last year, so if she's up 4% statewide, it probably means she's winning Clark by double digits, tied or narrowly ahead in Washoe, and not getting slaughtered by 3-1 or 4-1 margins in the rurals.

What may actually be most telling is that Mellman's poll shows Shelley winning NV-03 under its current configuration, and doing so by at least high single digits. The election will probably be won in Green Valley and Summerlin, so Shelley can really win if she romps in the Vegas/Henderson suburbs.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Great point there about Heller
Why didn't he release any general election numbers from his internal?

[ Parent ]
Washoe has tracked the statewide in most recent major elections......
Washoe was the same breakdown as statewide for Harry Reid and Obama.  NV-Gov 2006 was off, Washoe going more strongly Republican than the state that year.  But Washoe is the big bellwether, if margins in the rurals and Clark follow their normal pattern.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Federal, NOT state & local.
NV-Gov 2006 was off, Washoe going more strongly Republican than the state that year.

Nope. Washoe wasn't so much "off". Rather, Washoe still has a strong local Republican culture, so GOPers still dominate in local races and a number of state level races, even as it trends Blue federally.

That's been one reason of concern for Shelley. Even though she's federal, she's "Vegas", and Reno folks don't like anything that's too "Vegas". However because Dean Heller isn't all that liked by Washoe folks either, Shelley has an opening to reintroduce herself to Washoe and let them know she's not some Pat Mulroy or Rory Reid figure who will steal their water and shove Cirque du Soleil down their throats.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
So
Because Vegas is bigger if she can win it big (with the Henderson suburbs) and lose Reno by a smaller margin that might be enough to eek it out statewide?

[ Parent ]
Iowa Redistricting: here's the new proposed map!......
Linky here:  http://www.legis.iowa.gov/DOCS...

Keep in mind Iowa is a nonpartisan commission, with legislative chambers and Governor required to give up-or-down votes and then sign-or-veto.

The commission gets 2 cracks if first map rejected, then to the courts.

Last time they approved a 2nd map, and it's never gone to the courts.

This map throws together Loebsack and Braley, and also Latham and King, while leaving Boswell alone in his Polk-based district.  Loebsack could just move down a few miles from Linn County to Johnson (Iowa City).  Latham and King won't be happy, and I bet this map gets rejected for that reason...no way can I imagine the Iowa GOP going along with giving Boswell a free pass while making Latham and King fight it out.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


Oh, and here's a link to all the redistricting releases, including to state legislative maps......
http://www.legis.iowa.gov/Reso...

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
It looks like Boswell's district would be more Republican than currently.
It looks like there's a net of more red counties.  And Kerry only won one county in the new district versus what looks like six in the old district.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Big suprise
Most all maps I'd seen kept King's district a north to south western based district.  This will be a tough one for the Republicans.  They really don't want King and Latham thrown together but Boswell's district becomes considerably more GOP friendly. All those SW Iowa counties are heavily Republican and even Council Bluffs area leans so.  This new district would look alot like the old Greg Ganske-R Des Moines to Council Bluffs district.  I wonder if Latham might move south into Polk County or even Dallas which he currently represents and is growing fast and is heavily Republican.  

[ Parent ]
I think the state GOP will reject this map, so it's all moot, but I don't think Latham can move and win......
Yes the proposed Polk-based IA-03 would be more Republican than Boswell's district now, but Boswell has represented Polk and 6 of the rural counties at some point in his career.  Latham has represented only suburban Dallas County and a couple rural counties, including Warren which Boswell also has had, in his career.  Polk has about half the voters in the district, and Latham has never been on a ballot there, so I think it's tough for him to move.  He's already moved once in his career to Ames, I doubt he wants to have to move again to keep his seat.

I see some signs, too, that the state legislative districts might make the state GOP unhappy.  The proposed maps pit a lot of incumbent Rs against each other, I think more than they do that with incumbent Ds.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Latham could definitely win
I will have to see what the buzz is but I dont see the congressional or state senate maps being particularly bad for the GOP (haven't looked at assembly maps yet).  Boswell only represented a couple of the SW counties that make up the proposed district and they only have very very low populations.  I dont know if Latham would move and run in this district but he could and I think might be favored. #1 it is not uncommon for these moves...Leach-R and Boswell-D both moved after the last round and won.  #2 Latham didn't move for political reasons before. His old home in Alexander was in the same district as his new home Ames. It's only a 15 min drive from Ames to Polk Co.  #3 the growth in northern and western Polk and in Dallas all suburban and exurban Des Moines benefits Republicans...Democratic Des Moines proper is less and less a share of the vote in the Metro area.  The center of gravity for the state Republicans is more and more Ankeny in Northern Polk over to Dallas County.  #4 Latham currently represents three counties that surround Polk and make up this proposed district...Dallas, Warren, and Madison.  Almost all the SW counties on over to Council Bluffs were part of Greg Ganske's old district not Boswell's and are heavy to lean Republican.  Latham would  beat Boswell in all them.  #5 because Latham represents counties surrounding three sides of Polk he has advertised heavily in Des Moines stations in the past and has pretty high name ID for a Congressman up I 35 in Ames


[ Parent ]
Fair points, but you're wrong about Boswell representing only a "couple" rural counties......
Boswell has reprsented SIX, not "a couple," of the rural counties in the proposed IA-03 at some time in his career.  He's had Warren and also 5 of the SW counties.  That's not counting Polk.

Your other points are fair ones.

I do think 2012 is going to be a tough year for Republicans on the turnout model.  Obama will target the state as a priority and will have the machine going full-bore statewide.  I think Latham desperately would need his party to nominate a competent Presidential candidate; if the GOP has a bad candidate at the top, then Boswell wins.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Ah, I love it
But Steve King is probably going crazy(er) right now.  It looks like the giant GOP district has been made more Democratic too...or is that just me.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male

[ Parent ]
Somewhat
I am a former Iowan 1977-2004.  North central Iowa has some Democratic leaning counties Story, Cerro Gordo but also Republican leaning ones. Overall this is a less Republican district then King's current but is similar to the old 5th the comfortly elected Fred Grandy-R and Tom Latham-R in the 80s and 90s.  Latham if he were the GOP nominee would easily hold this district.  King might have trouble but would still be favored.  I really think the GOP might like this map...despite Latham and King being put together.  The Boswell Polk County based district is drawn about as Republican as it could be and it cracks the Republican heavy western part of the state so that all those voters aren't wasted in one district.  Also...if I am not mistaken the legislature and governor approve all the maps as a package so the State Senate and Assembly maps are really more important to the legislatures than the congressional map.  If they like those maps they won't throw the whole thing out because of the Congressional map.  I looked at state senate map and to me it looks like it would favor the Republicans who only need two more seats for the majority so ifthis is the case the Senate Dems may scuttle this and take there chances on the second map ( this is what the GOP did in 2001).  At no time has two plans been rejected and the while thing gone to the courts.  

[ Parent ]
Duffy may have live in the Real World at one time, but he's far from there now
I know, bad joke, but I couldn't resist. If $174,000 a year plus health benefits isn't enough, perhaps Duffy should find another job, I'm sure a lot of people wouldn't mind that.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

If it's not enough
maybe he should cut back on his expenses. You know what his party supposedly wants to do with the country.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
He's asking every other family to do it
and the large majority of them make a lot less.

[ Parent ]
IOWA! maps...
I want the IOWA maps!!!

Dude, look a couple comments above, I linked them. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Judge declares Wisconsin law NOT published and NOT in effect.
This was declared an hour ago this morning.
http://thewheelerreport.com/re...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


2
Ugh at this... http://politicalwire.com/archi...

And wtf at Democrats apparently agreeing to a 6-1-1 in MO?  Or at least St. Loius Democrats?

29/D/Male/NY-01


Silly headline
"The results only grew closer when respondents were primed with negative information about Brown."

So not "safe" at all then. Unless the Democratic candidate doesn't campaign again.  


[ Parent ]
I think the poll is ominous, Brown has postured smartly......
If he's really at 73% approval, that's the ballgame right there.

Things can change, but I think we'll probably need the Republicans to nominate a poor Presidential candidate to manufacture the coattails to beat Brown.

Problem is, Brown polling so strongly now can cause our strongest challengers to take a pass.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Disagree
There is an abundance of material to use against him. How high did Bush job approval go at an equivalent point in 1991?

[ Parent ]
Also
Linc Chafee was popular and Sheldon Whitehouse wasn't some dynamo political kryptonite.

It needs to be framed right.  As I said, he has to be tied down to the other GOP.  And again, comparisons to the WI GOP are moot and should be used.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Yep
And then-Sen. Chafee was far more liberal a legislator than Sen. Scott Brown. Hell, I'd be shocked if Brown was ever elected governor as the de facto progressive candidate.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
conspiracy/LookingOver, I think your examples either don't apply or prove my point......
Bush 41 doesn't apply.  A Presidential election with an incumbent running for reelection is a referendum on the President, and Bush 41 got caught in the undertow of a recession.  There's nothing comparable that can drag down Scott Brown, a mere U.S. Senator rather than a chief executive.

Meanwhile, the Chafee example proves my point in that Chafee got caught in an anti-GOP wave, and that's the same as my saying we need a poor GOP Presidential nominee to create a similar wave.

If the GOP nominates someone like Palin or Gingrich, or someone else who proves an equal disaster even if not having seemed to be one up front, then you can take down someone like Scott Brown in spite of his best efforts.

The other thing that would help, but that I think is unlikely, would be a strong teabagging primary.  But I suspect enough MA teabaggers know what they've got in Brown and know their state well enough not to offer or support a serious primary challenge.  Of course I said that last year in DE-Sen and AK-Sen and elsewhere, and I was wrong in those instances, so yes one can say all bets are off...but I still think the odds are against any teabagging in MA-Sen.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
They need to
tie him to the national Republicans like they did to Chafee and to others that are unpopular in New England.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
No comparison is perfect
But you suggested a high approval rating now was the ballgame and would keep strong contenders out. There are similarities in both cases.

[ Parent ]
And also
that WNEC and PPP had his approval in the 50's (where I predict it'll hover throughout 2011).

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
The strongest should run anyway
nothing ventured, nothing gained

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I'm willing to admit I could be totally wrong here...
But I don't think it will take a top-tier challenger, and anything that scares off Rep. Lynch is great news as far as I'm concerned. Mayors Warren and Driscoll could potentially win, there are worse black sheep than Massie, and there's always the chance of a surprise Kennedy (II or III edition) entry.

I agree with the above characterization of Sen. Scott Brown's support as broad but shallow. A well-funded campaign run by any competent Democrat will make the race a lot closer than this poll suggests. Brown has cultivated a likable image, but the campaign will do the damage.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


[ Parent ]
Sounds like...
...Martha Coakley! Starts with high favorability and massive polls leads against people with low name recognition...

[ Parent ]
Read my comment here:
http://www.swingstateproject.c...

Also, Kansas City Dems won't agree to that.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Where is this MO news coming from???


21,Democrat, NY-02, male

[ Parent ]
Yeah, Gov. Nixon is going to veto that for sure
It's a terrible deal, and Rep. Cleaver will throw a fit.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
MS-Gov
Nothing to see here. Bryant leads Luckett 53-27 and is up 56-25 on DuPree.

http://publicpolicypolling.blo...


I see
Luckett or Dupree pulling into the high 30's in the end, but no higher.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Approximately equal to percentage of blacks in state?)))


[ Parent ]
Yessss....
Don't remind me how racially polarized MS is. :(

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
NYT update on Gabby
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03...

I don't know whether it's wishful thinking, but the actions of Giffords' aides seem hopeful

"Our focus is on her recovery and what comes after that comes after that," said Pia Carusone, Ms. Giffords's chief of staff.

Despite such protestations, several of Ms. Giffords's longtime aides are whispering behind the scenes that she just might recover in time to run for the seat that Senator Jon Kyl, a Republican, is vacating next year.

But the article goes on to "plan B" concepts, named

Fred DuVal (state board of Regents)
Rep Ed Pastor
"as well as a handful of lesser-known hopefuls. "

I'm surprised that other polled candidates, e.g. Gordon, Goddard aren't named in the article.


"America's Senator"
It's hers if she recovers fully.

[ Parent ]
I think the D's will veto the
Iowa map for congressional seats.  Do they vote seperately on state & senate maps or is it one vote for all in Iowa?

It's one vote for all 3 maps, but you must have a typo in your subject line......
The Congressional map clearly favors Democrats.  Two seats are strongly D, and a 3rd throws together the 2 Republicans, forcing a primary or for one to move.  And rabid crazy Steve King's district is made less Republican, normally not a problem for a conventional GOPer but putting someone as extreme as him at real risk.

This is a map that can go 4-0 Democratic next year with only a few breaks for the Dems, but Republicans can't realistically count on better than 2-2.

The GOP can't like this.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Nah
http://bleedingheartland.com/d...

Boswell is toast under this map.  The 4th is a though slog for the Ds as well.  Realistically this map is capable of of being 4-0 D or 4-0 R. Remember the republicans held those eastern Iowa districts for 30 years up until 2006.  They held all 5 1995-1997 and 4 1997-2007 and Bralely almost lost last year with Loebsack and Boswell having to sweat as well. But all things being equal the current map is one strong lean R, one very slight lean R, one slight D lean, one D lean and one heavy D lean. The new districts are two D lean and two R lean.  The D PVI drops for , Loebsack, Boswell and Braley and the R PVI drops for King


[ Parent ]
LOL, Boswell has a clear advantage under this map......
Boswell has represented Polk (half the votes), Warren, and 5 SW rural counties in this proposed district at different points.

Latham has had only 3 counties, one of them Warren, same as Boswell had in the 90s, and Latham has never had Polk.

Yes I realize Latham is in the DSM media market, but he's never done any work actually campaigning in Polk besides TV/radio ads.

Boswell's entire career has included dealing with conservative southern Iowa counties, that's what made him an attractive nominee back in the 90s when Lightfoot surrendered the seat to challenge Harkin.

And none of this considers it's a Presidential year with peaking Democratic turnout and vote share.

If Latham moves, I very much like Boswell's chances against him.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
No I think they vote on the package
No amendments up or down.  If down a new package of maps is drawn then same process...it's never gone past this stage or to the courts.  Because of this I think the legislative lines for general assembly are of more concern to the the approval.  I also think the Senate Dems may shoot this down. Senate President Jack Kibbie-D was drawn into an unwinable district for one although he is old and may retire.

[ Parent ]
In unrelated news
New York passed an on-time budget...shocking.

They
have nothing on California when it comes to late budgets though!

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
It's because Cuomo threaten a $250,000 pain & suffering cap on medical malpractise suits...
And Speaker Sheldon Silver (D-Weitz & Luxenberg) and Sen Dean Skelos (R- Ruskin Moscou Faltischek) quickly caved.

Cuomo was a genius to tie capping medical malpractice suits to the budget. Silver basically gave in to every other Cuomo demand to protect his paycheck from Weitz & Luxenberg.

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...


[ Parent ]
Will Dennis Kucinich primary-challenge Obama?
He said he wouldn't several months ago.
And he slipped under in the 2008 primaries when everything was wide open, too.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Quote
"But Kucinich has been attracting the attention of media outlets and has found some uncommon Republican bedfellows in the process."

It isn't uncommon at all for him to vote with Republicans.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com...


[ Parent ]
Kucinich is an ardent civil libertarian.
So I'm sure he has some allies in the Paul fandom.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Sure
He votes from the left. But for whatever the reason he still votes with the other side far too often.

[ Parent ]
Fine by me
Makes Obama look more like a moderate and it gives Betty Sutton a better shot at kicking his ass out.  If I ever get a real job, I'll donate heavily to whatever Democrat ends up in a primary with Kucinich.  He votes against us and is the prime example of why we're all viewed as extremist granola flavored latte drinking weirdos.  Totally worthless, and actually harmful to the party as a whole.  (Big reason to love Sanders; he raises his stink yet still votes our way, and he has an "I" next to his name.)

[ Parent ]
Granola and lattes are delicious!
Uh oh.....

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
WI: Walker's Admin. to finally comply with court order.
http://budget.wispolitics.com/...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


A week of bad press days
and thousands of new recall petition signatures later..

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42

[ Parent ]
BTW
What is your opinion of the deal that got the IN House Dems to return?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
the walkout obviously couldn't have gone on forever
And given Democrats' near-trivial numbers in the legislature, they're not really in a strong negotiating position beyond more walkouts. So any concessions from Bosma, I think, are worth it.

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42

[ Parent ]
I
don't want to get too in to policy land but I think my sig tag says what I think about the deal.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Speaking of which....
Dem activists declare they got the signatures to recall Kapanke.

http://lacrossetribune.com/new...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
POTUS in FL
48-47 approve (indies 49-44), leads Romney by 2, Bush by 3, Giuliani by 6, Huckabee by 7, Gingrich by 8, Palin by 13.

http://publicpolicypolling.blo...


Not bad, though this one's about as toss-up-y as it gets
Romney actually does better than I perhaps expected, and there's little evidence that Rick Scott's loathesomeness is hurting other Republicans. I'm intrigued to see how Giuliani fares in the GOP primary here.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Seniors heart Romney in general...
I know my parents do... or did.  They don't like his flip-floppiness now, but probably would have voted for him in 2008.

[ Parent ]
What?
he was flip-floppy in 2008 too...

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Yeah, but not as bad...
My folks feelings for him were revealed in 2007 or so, before the flip flop brigade started...  Now, they hate him for not standing for his healthcare reform package, which they were generally supportive of.

[ Parent ]
It's kind of funny
to think that the Mitt Romney who was governor of Massachusetts could be a formidable general election opponent for Obama, or especially a Democrat in 2016, but he can't get through the primaries without destroying his chances.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
That's the Republican Party today
:)  

[ Parent ]
FL
More evidence that Florida isn't a southern state politically. In all the southern states, Huckabee does better than Romney. In FL, Mitt does 5 points better than Huck.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
FL is the only Romney southern state
except maybe TX.

The really key finding here is Huckabee's weakness.  Losing FL by seven renders his campaign meaningless.  

If Huck can't carry FL, he can't win.


[ Parent ]
Suffolk County race: How much of a deal is this locally?
How red was it?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


I can't do an overlay on daves redistricting..
Because its freezing.  But I'd say the district was probably 55 m 45 o. And even more gop on a local level.  So a pretty big deal.  Certainly can't bode well for the gop in novembers county executive race



21,Democrat, NY-02, male


[ Parent ]
NH protesting budget cuts and a walker-lite intiative
Which would "strip public employees of their union protection when their contracts expire."  

For reference, NH has a democratic governor, but republicans have a veto proof majority in both chambers.  

It looks like NH republicans may be over reaching with this and there could be another election quake here like there was in 2010 and 2006.

http://www.burlingtonfreepress...

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.


That's assuming
every GOPer votes to override.  And the vote on the package was just shy of 2/3rds.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Meanwhile, in Wisconsin, Walker stands down
http://budget.wispolitics.com/...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
That comment in the linked blog post by "thinkingcitizen"
is downright hilarious.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
This would get us a +2 pickup in the house
Welcome Annie Kuster and welcome back Carol Shea Porter.

And I'm guessing it would sew up a 5th term for Guv Lynch if he were so inclined to run.

Hoenstly, I thought NH was a pretty budget-balanced state (linked table below).  I mean $250M is a lot of money in % terms for a small state but for a state with no sales/income tax its not really that hard to see how to fix it without going this route

http://www.cbpp.org/cms/?fa=vi...


[ Parent ]
eh
I'd say it's a lot harder to create a new tax than to tick one up, even if that new tax is equal to raising the other.

[ Parent ]
OH-Sen: Ken Blackwell moving closer to run?
Some supporters have conducted a poll for him.

http://www.nationalreview.com/...

Blackwell - 34%
Mandel - 17%
Tiberi - 16%

Brown - 45%
Blackwell - 32%

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


Lawl!
The OH GOP truly is going to be screwed, then.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
No word on who did the poll
Why should I put any faith in it when nobody will put their name to it?

[ Parent ]
Are Texas
Republican insiders seriously thinking that they're going to  get away with a 3-1 split on the new Texas districts? Ridiculous. They have to create another Travis area district which will be quite Democratic leaning, and the VRA is going to make them create another Hispanic district. They'd probably be smart to make a third Democratic vote sink in Tarrant County. Though I can't complain if they overreach and Texas starts becoming a hotbed of competitive house races over the next decade.  

I agree
I hope they end up dummymandering it. Come on GOP, go for all four districts!  You can do it!

21,Democrat, NY-02, male

[ Parent ]
At least the VRA
won't let them do that.  

[ Parent ]
they'll definitely put a Hispanic seat in the Dallas metro
Be fun if they didn't somehow as by 2020, they probably would have cost themselves two or three seats.

[ Parent ]
Interpretation of the Poll Question
I think people interpret this poll question very differently, and that probably accounts for most of the differences.  Here's the exact poll question:

How will the new congressional seats be split between Republicans and Democrats?

First of all, to describe the change in the map, one needs to define clearly what the map currently is.  Is it a 23R-9D, which is the current delegation?  Or is it a 21R-9D-2S map, which is probably what most political junkies would label it?  Also, there is some question about what map might pass in Texas versus what map might be drawn in a prolonged court battle.  

For instance, it would not surprise me at all nor apparently some folks at RRH if the GOP were to draw a 24R-10D-2S map.  Assuming we believe, as most do, that the current map is 21R-9D-2S, then yes a 3R-1D change is certainly in the cards.

However, I think there is a good chance that such a map would be thrown out in court. Even if it were drawn, then I suspect the 2 swing districts would go Democratic pretty quickly, probably as early as 2012.  So, I think more realistically the Texas delegation might be 24R-12D after 2012, which would be a change of 1R-3D from what it is today.

They have to create another Travis area district which will be quite Democratic leaning...

I feel comfortable saying that this will never happen.  The GOP will continue to create 1 D seat in Travis and crack the rest.  The map maker's disdain for Travis county should be obvious from how they are trying to butcher it in the proposed SBOE maps. Here's the Travis SBOE picture via Greg Wythe.

Unfortunately, because these districts are so big (ideal population 1,676,371), this part of the maps is probably even legal. (Though I have serious doubts about Districts 1 & 2 in South Texas.) Our only real recourse for the Travis split is to draft Chet Edwards to run for the North Travis SBOE district, which includes Waco and Temple.


[ Parent ]
A disturbing poll from NJ
http://www.politickernj.com/46...

Obama: 46%
Huckabee: 46%

Obama: 44%
Romney 43%

Obama: 46%
Christie: 40%

Obama: 52%
Gingrich: 37%

Obama: 48%
Pawlenty: 34%

Obama: 54%
Palin: 34%

The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll of 800 registered voters nationwide was conducted by telephone using both landlines and cell phones from March 21, 2011, through March 28, 2011, and has a margin of error of +/-3.5 percentage points


I'll believe this poll when another one backs it up
No way are Romney and Huckabee doing that well particularly compared to Christie.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Could it be that Christie's name rec isn't high enough?
Obama garners the same vs. Christie as he does against Huckabee. I don't necessarily buy Obama stuck in a dead heat vs. Huckabee or Romney, though it could certainly eventually come to that. My hunch is he's up about 6 over both of them, 10 over Gingrich and 17 over Palin. When push comes to shove, I still think Christie's the best they could field.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
National
Just to be clear, this is a national poll, not a New Jersey poll. I got confused the first time I read it.  

[ Parent ]
Oh, there you have it then.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Here's what was a promising read
"Congressional Redistricting: Is Creating "Safe" Districts A Dying Art?" from Rhodes Cook at Sabato's Crystal Ball.  The title sounded promising, but after reading it you realize he's talking up a lot of nothing because he only goes back to 1970 when analyzing turn-over rate.  He concludes that because the last decade saw so much turn-over, maybe it means the end of safer districts.  No, Bush was really that bad in 2006, and the economy really sucked that hard in 2008 and 2010.

He also says

The current redistricting process is different from the last one in a variety of ways. Republican gubernatorial and state legislative gains last fall put the GOP in a much stronger position in many states to push through maps of their choosing

No, that is not a difference, as they controlled the process in 2000 as well.  And if they didn't, they did it mid-decade like Texas and Georgia.  Yeah, whole thing is just kind of wrong.  Sorry guy, you wasted your time.  Sabato should've hired an SSPer.


WI-SC: Prosser campaign co-chair endorses Kloppenburg!
http://www.channel3000.com/new...

This guy is the ex-governor of Wisconsin as well.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


Would have been better a couple of days ago....
but, I'll take it...

[ Parent ]
Witchita Mayor: Dem looks set for reelection on Tuesday
I had no idea until now that Witchita Mayor Carl Brewer was up for reelection on Tuesday.  If SurveyUSA is to be trusted he should have absolutely no problem winning.  He leads his Republican opponent 70%-25%.  

http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...


21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



WI-Recall: anti-Kapanke activists may have enough signatures!
http://lacrossetribune.com/new...

If you include this with Hopper, that's 2 down.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


Unemployment falls again!
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/...

Payrolls increased by 216,000 workers last month after a revised 194,000 gain the prior month, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Economists projected a March gain of 190,000,


I would take a 0.1 decrease every month
6.9% on election day sounds good.

[ Parent ]
Remember that
the unemployment rate is also determined by people that are looking for work, so a slight uptick isn't the end of the world. Which, by the way, makes all of the proclamations that he needs to be at X.X by a certain point a little less powerful.

But anyway, good news. Not great, but another solid report. Hopefully, we can start inching closer to 300,000.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
Absolutely
The trend is Obama's friend.

[ Parent ]
I'm starting to wonder
when he's going to articulate a particular vision for creating jobs. Is he waiting until the budget battles are over with? I could see that, if only because it's such a drawn out process where the details become unclear as it continues to drag on, and he wouldn't want his message to be overshadowed, especially if there's a shutdown. But I feel as if he talked about infrastructure, and tied it to his theme of winning the future in regards to education and innovation, he'd do very well, if job growth continues as it has been going. If not that, I am not sure what, but he needs to talk about something. I picked infrastructure because it appears to poll well and it's the sort of thing that people could easily get behind. And if red state Democrats can't get behind that, then they are beyond hope.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
You took away the holiday diary from the Brighamaster?
it was getting to be fun! Well, I suppose it was in time to keep it out of the Google cache.


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