Ugly

But effective.

Wonder if this was inspired by a comment I made in the previous thread about NH. I mentioned in that the towns/cities in the less Democratic 1st that were bluer (particularly Portsmouth, Dover, and Durham) tended to be far from the border with the current 2nd.

I wonder if one could prettify this map a little without changing it much. Those towns in Grafton, Sullivan, and Cheshire County that are in this 1st district tend to be pretty small and I don't think would change a whole lot if they were put back in the 2nd.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

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by: Answer Guy @ Thu Mar 31, 2011 at 01:41:46 AM UTC

This does raise the possibility

of the state GOP throwing Bass under the bus and trying to shore up Guinta a little bit. I doubt they would do anything too ugly, but what if they were to draw something like this?

I would imagine that the 1st district would now have a PVI of R+2 and the 2nd would have a PVI of D+5 or so.  

Male, VA-08

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by: drobertson @ Thu Mar 31, 2011 at 02:08:36 AM UTC

An Elegant Solution

And your estimated PVIs are right. If we remove Portsmouth from your 1st we can get the numbers up to; 1st-50.2% Obama, 2nd-59.2 Obama. Pretty good numbers if the state Republicans decided to consolidate one district whilst still producing a very neat map.

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by: Alizarin @ Thu Mar 31, 2011 at 03:27:22 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

not many states

would the high-density district be the republican district

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

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by: duffman @ Thu Mar 31, 2011 at 18:16:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

if it weren't an at-large district

Alaska would have the smaller district as the republican one, especially if it was a wasilla valley district.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

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by: OGGoldy @ Fri Apr 01, 2011 at 20:38:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

NH's boundaries

have barely changed since it became a state. It's not about to change now.

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by: thematt523 @ Thu Mar 31, 2011 at 03:31:46 AM UTC

It Was A One-Party State For Years

That part's clearly changed in the last decade or two.

A lot would have to happen for the map to change significantly, and I think everyone agrees that it's not going to happen this cycle. It's probably better from a good-governance perspective, but the extreme volatility is going to prevent the state from having its representatives develop much seniority.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

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by: Answer Guy @ Thu Mar 31, 2011 at 03:41:45 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agreed

So long as the Republican party was winning almost all the time there was no incentive to change the congressional district borders, and since they have incumbents in both seats this cycle I'm not suggesting they will change now either. But just because the boundaries haven't changed much since the 1880's (which is some time after statehood) doesn't prove that they never will. If immigration of Democratic leaning voters from Massachusetts continues the state republicans will ultimately have to either concede a district or hold neither seat a majority of the time.

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by: Alizarin @ Thu Mar 31, 2011 at 04:10:50 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The Mass-holes Don't Help.

As much as I wish (as someone who's lived in both states) I could credit the Bay State for having a positive influence on its northern neighbor....

People who leave Massachusetts for New Hampshire often make New Hampshire more Republican, not less. They're fleeing taxes. (And with NH property taxes being what they are, they might not even be saving themselves money, especially if gas prices keep going up and they have to drive a long way to work in Mass.) With the exception of the cities, Manchester and Nashua, the Boston commuter belt towns tend to be among the reddest towns in the state. It's sort of a mini version of the California conservatives invading other Western states...

What has made the Granite State so competitive in recent years is what's been happening in the rest of the state:
* The Upper Valley votes now like its neighbors across the river in Vermont.
* Keene and Concord have gone from light blue to deep blue and have even pulled some of their neighboring towns along.
* The North Country isn't a given for Republicans anymore.
* Even the Lakes Region has shown signs of inching away from their traditional rock-ribbed Republicanism, first by giving Kerry a decent chunk of votes and shockingly giving Obama and McCain almost an identical share of their vote.  

Add that to places where Democrats have always done pretty well (Portsmouth, Dover, Durham, the more urban parts of Manchester and Nashua) and you've got a swing state.  


36, M, Democrat, MD-03

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by: Answer Guy @ Thu Mar 31, 2011 at 04:40:05 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Fair enough

I'll rescind that point then. I'm absolutely not from the area so I'll blame an article I read in the Nashua Telegraph for that. Why should I be surprised the mainstream media led me astray?

Great summary by the way, I understand New Hampshire a bit more now.

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by: Alizarin @ Thu Mar 31, 2011 at 04:47:39 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

A New Wave

Just to confuse you even further....the Telegraph might not be 100% wrong though for a couple of reasons.

1. The Mass exile community are still New England conservatives, meaning that the aggressive religiosity and ultra-hawkism of the national GOP tend not to be especially appealing.  The shift in focus of the issues from those to health care and taxation explains why these folks shifted so sharply back to the Republicans in 2010. (Of course they didn't quite know what they voted for. Little attention is paid to legislative races because there are so many of them.)

2. The newer breed of emigrant might be different. The real estate boom in Greater Boston might have caused people to look at New Hampshire for its lower house prices as opposed to its lower tax rates. While there's an ideological component to "I want to live someplace with lower taxes and lower services," there isn't really anything ideological per se about "I need to live somewhere with lower housing costs."


36, M, Democrat, MD-03

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by: Answer Guy @ Thu Mar 31, 2011 at 13:48:43 PM UTC