Google Ads


Site Stats

SSP Daily Digest: 3/30

by: DavidNYC

Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 8:05 AM EDT


Senate:

AZ-Sen: Jeff Flake then:

That's the difficulty of a campaign. I mean, it's easy to just say, "Seal the border and enforce the law." What does that really mean? What does that entail? And when you're able to explain it, then they're alright. And I think for those who don't agree with my position-think that it ought to be something different-at least I think they give me a little credit for sticking with my position because I've always believed this is what we need and I continue to believe regardless of the political environment.

Jeff Flake now:

In the past I have supported a broad approach to immigration reform - increased border security coupled with a temporary worker program. I no longer do. I've been down that road, and it is a dead end. The political realities in Washington are such that a comprehensive solution is not possible, or even desirable, given the current leadership.

In other AZ news, the subscription-only Arizona Guardian says that ex-Rep. Matt Salmon may endorse Rep. Trent Franks, rather than his old buddy Flake (who succeeded him in Congress when he unsuccessfully ran for governor in 2002), something they characterize as a "snub" on their home page. Franks of course hasn't announced a run yet, but Dave Catanese claims he'll do so this Saturday. Just hope whoever told Dave this is more truthful than the dipshit who dissembled about Connie Mack last week. (And I still maintain that Dave had every right-if not an obligation-to burn that source.)

FL-Sen: Adam Hasner has to be feeling pretty good about himself these days. Rep. Connie Mack inartfully bowed out of the race, and Mike Haridopolos has already scored a few own-goals. So the former state House Majority Leader took to his Facebook to declare that "this election still needs a proven limited government leader, who is solid across the board on the conservative principles." Why golly, that sounds just like Hasner, doesn't it?

IN-Sen, IN-02: Rep. Joe Donnelly sure sounds like he's interested in running for Senate. He told Robert Annis, a reporter for the Indianapolis Star, that he thinks his "experience is best served in the Senate." Annis also characterized Donnelly as "leaning toward" a run. A different reporter at the same event characterized him as "leaning strongly toward" a Senate bid if the GOP makes his current district redder.

MI-Sen: PPP has the remainders from their Michigan poll last week, a kitchen sink GOP primary:

Pete Hoekstra is the clear first choice of Republicans in the state for who they'd like as their nominee to take on Debbie Stabenow next year. 38% say he'd be their pick compared to 18% for Terri Lynn Land. No one else cracks double digits, with Saul Anuzis at 5%, Justin Amash, Randy Hekman, and Tim Walberg at 4%, Chad Dewey at 3%, and Tim Leuliette with the big egg at 0%.

Speaking of The Hook, he said he'll decide whether to challenge Stabenow in two weeks. In an amusing side note, Hoekstra admitted he got all butthurt when MI GOP chair Bobby Schostak said in a recent interview that he expects a candidate to emerge who is " head and shoulders" above the current crop of potentials-a group which obviously includes Hoekstra. Of course, Schostak also said of this mystery candidates: "I don't know who it is. They haven't met with me yet, if they're out there." We don't know who they are either!

NV-Sen: Rep. Dean Heller, presumably trying to scare off would-be primary opponents, raised a pretty massive $125K in a single event in Vegas on Monday night.

OH-Sen, OH-12: This is... getting strange. Top-tier Ohio Republicans have all pretty much taken a pass on challenging Sherrod Brown, or at least seem to be leaning against a run. But one guy all of a sudden put his name into the hopper: Rep. Pat Tiberi, who sits in the very swingish 12th CD. Tiberi's spokesman made sure to remind Dave Catanese that he's on Ways & Means, though, so that's a pretty tasty perch to give up. Catanese also notes that state Sen. Kevin Coughlin is preparing a run.

RI-Sen: I guess rich guy Barry Hinckley is running against Sheldon Whitehouse? The founder of a software company called Bullhorn ("the global leader in On Demand, integrated front office software for the staffing and recruiting industry"), Hinckley is apparently trying to burnish his Republican credentials by holding some fundraisers at California yacht clubs. (Not joking about that.)

Gubernatorial:

LA-Gov: 2010 Lt. Gov. nominee Caroline Fayard is starting to sound very much like a gubernatorial candidate... that is, if you can hear her over her foot-stuffed-in-mouth. She didn't do much to help her cause by declaring at a recent even that she "hates Republicans" because they are "cruel" and "eat their young." (Uh, I talk a lot of shit about the GOP, but what does "eat their young" even mean?) Fayard later tried to wiggle her way out of this by claiming "I'm against the president, but I don't need to see his birth certificate." So she's managed to kill her crossover vote and her support among African Americans in one fell swoop. Well, uh, she sure is getting some free media out of this. (Hat tip: Daily Kingfish)

House:

CT-05: I guess I thought that former state Rep. Elizabeth Esty (D) had already announced she was running for Chris Murphy's seat, but apparently she's only just formed an exploratory committee.

MN-06: It's not particularly meaningful, since the funds can be transferred to another federal account, but Michele Bachmann did just file to run for re-election yesterday.

NY-25, VA-02: Dan Maffei apparently says he'll decide on a rematch "in the next two months," while Glenn Nye (I'd forgotten he was still considering) will wait until "sometime in the summer." (That's how The Hill phrased it in both cases.)

RI-01: With the city of Providence's finances imploding, freshman Rep. David Cicilline is taking a beating over his stewardship of the city he used to be mayor of. Among other things, a new Brown University poll finds him with a statewide approval rating of just 17-49. Could Cicilline be vulnerable in the general election? I doubt it, but he could underperform annoyingly and require help that could best be expended elsewhere, like a Paul Kanjorski. I think he might be more at risk in a primary.

Other Races:

Wisconsin Recall: In just the last two months, the Wisconsin Democratic Party reports raising $1.4 million-or, a quarter million more than it did in all of 2010. In other news, a coordinator of the petition drive against Randy Hopper seems to have gone off-message with his intimation that volunteers would have "closer to 30,000 than 15,000" signatures by Tuesday (a month before the deadline). 15,269 sigs are needed for the recall to happen, but a spokesperson for the Democratic Party told the Journal Sentinel that these figures (such as they are) "are not accurate" and wouldn't say more. Quite understandably, t's pretty much been the policy of the party not to talk about where things stand.

Wisconsin Sup. Ct.: JoAnne Kloppenburg is out with TV and radio ads that tout her independence.

Remainders:

WATN?: Artur Davis, douchebag from beyond the grave. This is actually the same link as the NY-25/VA-02 item above; Davis did an event with Maffei and Nye at which he said that President Obama would bear the brunt of the blame for any government shutdown. Davis's claim: "I think that voters always focus on the executive as the responsible officer." That's why Bill Clinton lost so badly in 1996, right?

In other WATN? news, I'm guessing that ex-Rep. Bart Gordon (D) is probably ruling out a run for the seat he voluntarily gave up last year (TN-06), or a Senate bid - he just took a job at the law firm of K&L Gates. (The "Gates" is Bill Gates, Sr., the Microsoft founder's dad, who is now retired.)

Redistricting Roundup:

Indiana: Have an idea for an Indiana state Senate map? Sen. Tim Lane (D) wants to hear from you! (Seriously!) Contact information is at the link.

Louisiana: Even though he had said he'd stay out of it, Gov. Bobby Jindal's been weighing in on the redistricting process-and Dems, as you might guess, aren't happy about it. Click through the article to learn more about the exact nature of the dispute. Ultimately, though, it sounds as though Jindal will get his way, which more or less preserves the status quo.

Funnymanders: What happens when a very careful redistricting job blows up in your face because the state Senate Majority Leader's son being groomed for the new seat tells the media he can't even remember being arrested for getting into a dispute over chicken fingers at Applebee's? Well, I'm calling that a funnymander. Nathan Gonzales has the details on that story, and a few other anecdotes as well, about redistricting gone awry.

Dark Money: On the darker side of redistricting is all the unregulated cash flooding into various coffers, which Politico takes a look at. A big reason is an FEC decision last year which allowed members of Congress to raise unlimited soft money for redistricting groups, and both Dems and Republicans are, of course, going at it full bore.

DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 3/30
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

Cicilline
is probably not in as bad shape as the poll suggests, since it's one of those polls that includes "fair" as an option, which for some reason is automatically grouped in with "poor" as negative, while I would argue it's pretty much the same as saying "no opinion".

Ann Kirkpatrick and Sean Duffy
Ann Kirkpatrick, who lost to Paul Gosar in AZ-01, has announced she wants her old seat back. I'm not sure what to think of this. Someone here said she folded like a cheap suit when she was challenged, but she didn't lose that badly despite the wave.

http://www.azcentral.com/membe...

Now, I wonder how newly-elected Rep. Sean Duffy will be helped in his re-election (there, now it's related :]) if he continues to whine about difficult his life is with a salary of only $174,000. Sure, he went without a paycheck while he campaigned, but his wife didn't. According to Open Secrets, his wife brings in at least $50,000 a year. But maybe, just maybe, he did struggle than I realize. Well, how he's making well above the median salary nationwide. And even if he as a point that benefits in Wisconsin are much better than those in Washington, perhaps the answer is to...improve the benefits in Washington, not reduce those for public employees in Washington.

Read the comments from the Journal Sentinel Online. Most of them rake him over the coals. If I were a Democratic campaign operative, I'd be making this into an ad for 2012 after reading those.

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/...

http://www.opensecrets.org/pfd...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


Kirkpatrick
Ehhh. You're right, she didn't lose as badly as she could have, but that says a lot about Gosar too. I was down south during the last election so I wasn't a witness to much, but I know that she was a reticent to do much actual boots on the ground campaigning. And she sure wasn't making up for it with her pitiful amount of weaksauce tv ads. What I do know much better is that she was rather aloof as a representative. This one time someone else from Flagstaff actually showed up SSP, and we both talked about how, despite the fact that this district has seen a disproportionate amount of natural disasters over the past couple of years, she mostly seemed to ignore them. I argued then and now that one thing that separates soulless politician from a committed public servant capable of crossover support despite a horrible political climate is how one responds as an officeholder to disasters. During, say, the Timberline floods, do you drive all of three miles from your house to spend a couple of hours filling up sandbags, meeting volunteers and relief workers and handing our coffee and sandwiches? Or do you sit in your house in the same town of the floods and watch tv? Kirkpatrick apparently chose something much closer to the latter.

Really the only thing speaking to her favor is that the Democratic base in the district is nothing special, mostly consisting of people in Flag or on the Rez who are probably too liberal. The person who used to be viewed as next strongest candidate in the district after Kirkpatrick, Rebecca Rios, (1) Lost her state senate seat by a surprisingly large margin last year & (2) Is based in Pinal County anyway, meaning who knows if she'll even live in the district next time.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


[ Parent ]
redistricting
Is there any word on redistricting? Maybe Kirkpatrick has heard that AZ1 is likely to be made more blue, or at least not made more red. Gosar seems pretty weak as he beat her by just 6 in an all-time red wave year and I think he would probably lose to her in a neutral year if the lines stay the same, especially if she ran a better campaign. Gosar is probably too far right to hold that district indefinitely.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Oh great
Patrick Tiberi is going to run for Senate, thus vacating a Columbus-area seat and prompting the Ohio Republicans to do the smart and sensible thing and create a central Columbus democratic vote sink, now that they don't have to sacrifice one of their own to do it, thus rendering my beautiful redistricting map posted two days ago officially wrong and into the dustbin of history.

Fuck.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13


Not a chance in a million
we see a Columbus sinkhole for D's without or with Pat T. running.  

[ Parent ]
Actually, they would have to sacrifice someone.
Mary Jo Killroy lost last year, so it's all Republicans in the Columbus area.  Creating a Democratic vote sink in Columbus means a Democratic pickup.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
This makes it much harder for the Republlicans...
They can't just choose to cut Tiberi's district, because that would mean the two other Columbus-area districts would have to take on much of his territory, making them more Democratic.  

The alternative is in some ways worse.  A D-leaning open seat in a state Obama will probably win means an almost certain Republican pickup.  And then they would have to cut one of their incumbents somewhere else, meaning they'd lose a net of two seats.

As I see it, assuming Tiberi vacates his seat, there are only two optiosn.

1.  His seat is drawn into an open seat Republicans can win without endangering the two Republican incumbents in the region.  This probably means splitting Columbus four ways.  

2.  If another Republican retires, they cede Columbus to the Democrats.  Yes, this still means they'd still lose a net of two seats while the Republicans are even,  but it would look to be by design, and not because they were punked, and all Republican incumbents would be safe.  


[ Parent ]
Bart Gordon
Didn't he retire last year, and therefore running again in 2012 wouldn't count as a "rematch" per se.

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42

He did retire, and it's misleading to mention him without pointing out...
...that there should not be any expectation by anyone that he would run again.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Gah
I got him mixed up with John Tanner. My bad.

[ Parent ]
John Tanner
retired too =P

Lincoln Davis was the only incumbent Tennessee Democrat that was defeated.

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42


[ Parent ]
Right
But I also got John Tanner mixed up with Lincoln Davis. :)

(Also, I picked a hell of a week to stop sniffing glue.)


[ Parent ]
Indiana State Senate Democrats are
releasing their first redistricting proposal today at 10:30 EST.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

Dammit
Just when I thought I could go to sleep.

By "their" proposal do you mean for the Senate or for Congress?

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42


[ Parent ]
The tweet didn't say.
Damn not enough characters.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Here's the Democrats plan for
the congressional districts.

http://www.blueindiana.net/?p=...

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)


[ Parent ]
I know next to nothing of numbers...
What does Bloomington do for the 5th and 9th district PVIs?

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42

[ Parent ]
I'm not sure, but their
intention is to make all of the seats competitive. It's purely optics though. They wouldn't propose something like this if they had control.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Roy Moore, officially a "some dude" running for President
http://www.theatlantic.com/pol...
Roy Moore, the "Ten Commandments Judge," is going to pursue the Republican presidential nomination. Apparently, the news broke last week. It's a measure of how far Moore has fallen since days as a controversial national figure that people (i.e., me) are only hearing about this now.

(me too)

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/...

the 64-year-old judge is preparing to launch a presidential exploratory committee and enter the Iowa fray, according to multiple Iowa GOP officials.


He couldn't even win the Republican
nomination for AL-Gov last year, what does he even think he's doing?

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42

[ Parent ]
More people than you think make purely ego-driven runs......
I saw a link a few weeks ago to a list of FEC filings for President, and something like 93 people have filed papers already.  A couple of them are candidates you've heard of, the other 91 or so are ordinary people with extraordinary egos.  Of course, the ones you've heard of also have extraordinary egos, but unlike the rest they at least have name recognition among diehard campaign junkies.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Now by fair
God tells people that aren't George W Bush to run for president too...

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
And Michele Bachmann
God told her to run for Congress so I'm sure there has been some deep consultation lately.

[ Parent ]
NJ - teabaggers redistricting plan
link
A tea party group published what they called the "most constitutional" redistricting plan for NJ's 40 legislative districts. It's compact, but too loose with population equality. Surprisingly it has some gifts to the Democrats, like 18 which is a Democratic district in Somerset County, and 19 which puts Republican-leaning Old Bridge in a very Democratic district.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

Quinnipiac finds Obama down 36-37 to Generic R
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x129...

Both Obama and the Republican garner 79% of the party vote, with Indies going 32-28 for the GOP-er. He's at 42/48 approval and has a 41/50 re-elect. Looks to me like Quinnipiac's perhaps using a GOP-friendly model (like a 35-35-30 split, where it should be more like 40-32-28 D-R-I).

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


I raised this question on Tuesday.
Are we looking at polls today or as they were  in Nov 2008 or how they have  looked in Nov 2010 or how they will look in Nov 2012?

We have seen a slew of polls with party splits that look like a super charged Nov 2008 party split.  We are here in March 2011.  What is the mood of the country right now?  Quinnie's model is close to reflecting what happened in 2010 and we here at March 2011.  Has things changed dramatically in 4 months?  I don't see it.  Polls that look at adults and their views of the country don't show a dramatic change.  So I might suggest that a poll in March 2011 might look quite alot like election results from Nov 2010.


[ Parent ]
So you're suggesting
that the turnout model in '12 will be like that of an off-year election ('10)?

If our system worked with consecutive off-year elections, you might have a point


[ Parent ]
In rdelbov's world, it's still 2010...
but repeating a weak argument dozens of times doesn't make it strong.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Not suggesting that all
but we are in March 2011.  If we talking about buyers remorse for 2010 elections what turnout model do you suggest for March 2011?  Reruning the 2010 elections with a 2008 turnout model in march 2011 seems silly!! That's why I think buyer remorse polls from Ohio, Fl & WI using super charged 2008 turnout models is odd.  Its March 2011 and assuming we would 2008 voter models for a March 2011 redo of Nov 2010 elections is wishfull thinking.

As I said if we are polling in March 2011 for Obama's re-election numbers its an open question as to what numbers we should use.  Quinnie's numbers are close to 2004 and one wonders if turnout in 2012 will not be more like 2004 then 2008?  

I might add that Quinnie is a college poll that is usually finds alot of acceptance at this site.  I for one find it refreshing to see what another respected pollster thinks.


[ Parent ]
Actually they have a sketchy record
And I think you find it "refreshing" because it suits your opinion. It is one poll. Let us see if there is confirmation from other sources before jumping to conclusions. Gallup has swung quite hard in the opposite direction for instance.

[ Parent ]
Response
Reruning the 2010 elections with a 2008 turnout model in march 2011 seems silly!!

While there are doubts about white liberal turnout, the numbers support similar levels of turnout among non-whites.

I believe the way non-whites will defend the President in '12 is similar to what happened with Clinton in '98. A President who supports non-whites who is persecuted -- gets defended by such constituencies. Bottom line, the intensity among non-white voters will be there.

That's why I think buyer remorse polls from Ohio, Fl & WI using super charged 2008 turnout models is odd.

It's the same effect that's boosting Walker as a potential R candidate for President, ref http://publicpolicypolling.blo... It's boosting D enthusiasm even more. Can't find the link at the moment, but it was a conservative-sponsored poll.

Quinnie's numbers are close to 2004 and one wonders if turnout in 2012 will not be more like 2004 then 2008?  

First, '04 exit polls, if they're to be believed, suggests even D/R party ID. From what I've seen, that also happened in '10.

But that's not consistent with current party ID polls, ref http://polltracker.talkingpoin... , which show a 10% D/R gap.

In addition, an '04 type turnout would break historical precedent. I think the last time a re-elect was closer than the original election of a President was '12. Either the incumbent wins by more, or loses by more.

However, the one thing I'm sure of is that the polls will change significantly between now and Nov '12.


[ Parent ]
Errata: as for historical precedent
I was referring 1916 (Wilson-Hughes)

[ Parent ]
Quinnipiac has a generally good record...
...but, when they throw an outlier, they really throw one.  Remember, they were the outfit that had Cuomo as a tossup against Palladino and Linda McMahon within the margin of error to Blumenthal.

Both candidates won with double digit victories.

Since no other poll is giving the same numbers, it's probably another quinnie outlier.


[ Parent ]
I'll wait to see confirmation
Their Libya numbers look upside down in comparison to everybody else. Still, Gallup dropped last week and that tracker has produced a bounce the last two days since the speech.

[ Parent ]
Does that mean
my basic assumption holds?  Quinnie has 35R-35D and naturally that generate different top lines for the President.  What's the right model?  

Even the Presidential approval numbers vary from pollster to pollster because they find a different blend of respondents.  

I guess we will for more polls.  


[ Parent ]
I mean the poll is an outlier at the moment
Even Rasmussen indicates support for Libya.

[ Parent ]
Generic R is Richard the Lionheart
compared to every Rep prez candidate.  

Tied with generic R should mean at least a 10 point lead on any actual Republican.


[ Parent ]
Sounds
like Artur Davis is auditioning for a job on Fox News. Maybe he and Bayh can form the "Democratic concern troll squad."

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

redistricting
last night,I went to a talk with stu rothenburg and asked him if he thought any states might overreach in their redistricting efforts and create dummymanders (although i didn't use that word).  

He said he didn't think many states would dummymander themselves, but that he didn't think they'd gain from redistricting either.  basically he figured they're going to try to solidify their gains from 2010 to maintain the house majority.

He also said that the reports shouldn't be trying to handicap the house now, before the new maps are finished, unless they have a good idea of what the new maps will be.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.


but what if solidifying their gains is a dummymander
like Pennsylvania would be

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

[ Parent ]
This is a small thing
But I keep noting it: Matt Salmon retired in 2000, keeping a pledge he made in 1994 to only serve 3 terms. Jeff Flake succeeded him then. He did not retire in 2002 to run for that years gubernatorial election.  

Interesting result in Rochester Mayoral race
A special election was held for the remainder of Lt. Gov. Robert Duffy's term. Here are the results; no Republican ran, but the Democratic nominee faced a strong challenge from a candidate on the Working Families/Independence lines:

Tom Richards (D) - 12,270
Bill Johnson (WF/IP) - 10,448
Alex White (G) - 2,182

A little research reveals that Johnson served three terms as mayor (as a Democrat) prior to Duffy. Richards was the CEO of a local utility, then became an attorney for the city.


Richards was deputy mayor in the Duffy Administration
He took office after Duffy became Lt. Gov, but resigned after he decided to run in the special election and it appeared that he might be guilty of a Hatch Act violation. (The city clerk took over.)

Richards was the most conservative of the three, but I'm just glad Johnson lost; after the Fast Ferry debacle he doesn't deserve to hold office ever again.


[ Parent ]
Arkansas GOP radio ad against redistricting plan
The dramatic music and frantic tone of the announcer is hilarious http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

Bill Nelson
Tepid job approval, double digit leads.

http://www.publicpolicypolling...


Joe Scarborough
Interesting that his "not sure" number is so high after being on tv all these years. I suppose it's a reminder that, DC love of them notwithstanding, hardly anyone watches the cable "news" shows.

[ Parent ]
Prediction
rdelbov will be skeptical of these results.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
McCain 49-47 sample
There are contradictory findings in the crosstabs. It will tighten when the Republicans get better known. Leans D.

[ Parent ]
The findings that seemed unusual to me
were Nelson's big margins with Hispanic voters, which ranged from 67-22 vs. Haridopolos to 58-25 vs. Scarborough.  In Florida, that vote is usually reasonably close.  Here are the recent numbers on that:

2006 Sen: Nelson (D) 58, Harris (R) 41
2006 Gov: Crist (R) 49, Davis (D) 49
2008 Pres: Obama (D) 57, McCain (R) 42
2010 Gov: Scott (R) 50, Sink (D) 48
2010 Sen: Rubio (R) 55, Crist (I) 25, Meek (D) 20

The Hispanic vote in Florida will probably improve in 2012 because it is a presidential year and more younger Hispanic voters will vote than in 2010 or 2006.  But this looks like a pretty big jump for a guy who won 58% of the Hispanic vote in trouncing Katherine Harris.



34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


[ Parent ]
Because people don't know them I guess
The poll is comparable to Mason-Dixon. Indeed, PPP have Haridopolos and Hasner doing better.

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...


[ Parent ]
Not knocking the poll
It's very possible that Nelson will do better than he did in 2006 with Hispanics given presidential turnout.  Also crosstabs are inherently unreliable.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Me neither
Just getting ahead of the critics on the other side. Check out the M-D "model" too!

D 44%
R 40%
I 16%

And compare it to PPP...

D 41%
R 37%
I 22%


[ Parent ]
I could definitely see Nelson up by 2 to 1 among Hispanics
With Katherine Harris, I think she garnered many of the Hispanics who backed Bush in '04 (Bush won them 56 to 44). I suspect Marco Rubio will stump for the eventual GOP candidate and keep them above the 35% mark, but I'd wager Obama inches closer to 60% among Hispanics here and that probably means Nelson breaks closer to 65%.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
This is where I step in and say "crosstabs are unreliable"......
Of course I say that all the time, because it's true.

In this particular case, besides the fact that we're talking about the typically small subsample any nonwhite group has in a poll, I suspect the poll managed to undersample Cubans.  That's the critical thing in Florida, to distinguish Cubans from non-Cuban Hispanics.  I posted in a comment in another discussion sometime in the past couple weeks that the only poll I've been able to find from recent elections on the Cuban vote was the 2006 exit poll.  That same poll where you show Nelson winning Hispanics 58-41, there was a massive gap between Cubans and non-Cubans, with Cubans still favoring crazy Katharine by something in the range 25-30 points.  Also, Cubans were 40% of Hispanics in that exit poll, a very large minority though not a majority.  I bet PPP this time just undersampled Cubans, nothing more, and the undersampling itself is just random noise.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
MI-Gov
Marketing Resource Group, an in-state R pollster with a long and strong track record, polled Rick Snyder's favorables/job approval and found him still above water, albeit barely:

http://www.detnews.com/article...

42/38 job approvals, personal favorability even a bit above that. Sample is much more plausible (both in partisan affiliation and demographic makeup) than PPP's, and squares much better with what I've seen in reality here. Some people are upset about the budget and the EFM bill (mainly the latter), but Snyder is by no means in Granholm territory yet. People are generally still willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.


Remind me
What was wrong with the makeup and affiliation in the PPP?

[ Parent ]
Oh goodie
You found 1 single poll that is favorable to Snyder.  Now, let me ask you something.  Why are you stepping in to defend the disastrous "tax-and-spend" policies of Rick Snyder and the MI GOP and then adding in a $100 approporation into the pension tax hike in order to protect it from a ballot initiative?

I know we're not supposed to discuss policy, but I can't stand the hypocrisy anymore.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
It is not a more plausible sample.
Here are the exit poll numbers for Michigan:

2004: 39-34-27
2006: 40-33-27
2008: 41-29-29

I don't think an exit poll was done for 2010.

Here are the two polls:

PPP: 41-28-31
MRG: 26-26-43

The MRG data is not more plausible.  In relation to the available data, they have way too many independents, way too few Democrats, and slightly too few Republicans.  Nothing about this sample is terribly plausible in terms of partisanship.

PPP's sample, on the other hand, is pretty consistent with the exit polling, with maybe just slightly too few Republicans and slightly too many Indies compared to the available data.

I know, I know ... 2010 changed everything, except that it didn't.  And unfortunately in the case of Michigan we have no exit poll data with which to factor that in.  

I was certainly guilty of thinking Dems would retain some vestiges of 2008 turnout in 2010, so it's hard for me to blame others for thinking Republicans will retain some vestiges of their 2010 turnout in 2012.  The truth, I suspect, is that one has little to do with the other.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


[ Parent ]
Nice work
People really do dismiss PPP at their peril. I don't know how many times they have to prove themselves.

[ Parent ]
I harbor no delusions that 2012 will be like 2010
But neither should Dems assume that 2012 will be 2008, which is basically what PPP has been telling us. People actually know Barack Obama now, and he can't be all things to all people again when he has a record that he has to run on. If the GOP nominates someone like Palin, turnout for Rs could well be worse than 2008, but that won't happen.

To address LookingOver's point, I didn't add in a $100 appropriation to any bill; I haven't been elected to the legislature. Yet. And to quibble about this is to ignore history. This has been done by administrations both Democratic and Republican. That doesn't make it right, but it does make it hypocritical for Dems to cry hypocrisy only when Republicans do this. Further, I don't support Snyder's policies unreservedly, particularly the pension tax.

Exit polls are not reliable indicators of actual turnout, everybody knows this. They consistently oversample Dems and undersample Republicans. Jensen may contend that his sample matches state partisan numbers, but that ignores who actually turns out in reality. In particular, his sample oversampled blacks by a pretty significant margin, which accounts for probably close to 9 points of the difference in these polls.

MRG has a good state track record and their sample is more plausible in terms of voter loyalties in the state. Consider Nate's post on partisan bases in the 50 states:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n...

Michigan is just about even on party bases; the MRG poll may have each number a bit low, but in general, the numbers would even out. PPP has basically been telling us that 2012 will be another huge Dem year more than a year ahead of time, without evidence. That may be, but at this point, it doesn't square with the facts and sentiments that I've seen in the state. And neither does the PPP poll. I'm not dismissing them, but I am saying that everybody conducts a bad poll now and then (indeed, we should be suspicious if they don't). This was theirs.


[ Parent ]
I never said
that you personally had anything to do with the bill.  Sorry if my run-on sentence confused you.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
The whole anti-PPP thing is confusing me
Yet this poll is meant to be better because it has Republicans improving on 2004 turnout let alone 2008!

[ Parent ]
Quote
"But neither should Dems assume that 2012 will be 2008, which is basically what PPP has been telling us."

Not true. In state after state they have Obama with much smaller leads than he won by in 2008.


[ Parent ]
FL state legislature allows bribery?
Someone found me this article: http://www.tampabay.com/news/p...

The bill in question seems to be this: http://www.myfloridahouse.gov/...

Can anyone say how accurate this commentary is?  And if it is accurate, how many yes votes were Democrats?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


NV-Sen
Berkley internal has her up 4 points on Heller. Harry Reid's pollster FWIW.

http://www.lasvegassun.com/blo...


Which is worth quite a bit.
Reid's pollster got it right, but they wisely hid the results until the end so as to put the opposition into a state of false confidence.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Indeed
In most states I'd be skeptical but nobody seems to poll Nevada properly. Still, even if it is on the generous side the insider quote on Heller is more than accurate.

[ Parent ]
This is actually much better...
Than what I had anticipated. If Shelley is ahead of Heller, even if both are nowhere near 50%, then she has more than a fighting chance... And Shelley may just ask Harry to ask the DSCC folks to back off and let her make her campaign official "decide".

Btw, sorry I wasn't around much these last few days. I was up north in Carson City doing some legislative lobbying. In the next couple of days, I'll have more juicy Nevada political gossip for y'all if you're interested. ;-)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Why has no one made jokes yet about
Flake being a flake?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


david, you're
only allowed to make one if when franks loses the primary, you title it "franks for the memories" or even better, the fall out boy-esque "frnks fr th mmrs"

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

[ Parent ]
WI Supreme Court
Here's a good article from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel about how downticket races will affect the election on Tuesday. Basically both Milwaukee and Dane (home of Madison) Counties will have special elections for County Execs next week,  and they're expected to bring turnout up:

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/...

Anecdotally, there are rumors in Madison that the city clerk is calling in lots of city employees to help at the polls with the spring election, because they're expecting November level turnout. If that's true, Prosser's finished.


In Michigan, Republican Chairman...
Schostak's comment about none of the Republicans being mentioned or running being, in his words, "... you know, contenders," is miffing some of the state's big name Republicans.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballo...

Also, if anyone is wondering why I don't understand the Saul Anuzis-for-Senate chatter.... (I think the Facebook post has been deleted now)

http://www.michiganliberal.com...

20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)


Bobby
I knew when they picked this guy that he'd be so Charlie Sheen "winning!"  Detroit-area real estate moguls (like most real estate moguls) provide unlimited (and unintentional) entertainment.  This guy is going to be a gaffe machine.

25, independent liberal, MI-08

[ Parent ]
First Missouri maps are out
http://ozarksfirst.com/fulltex...

Some interesting territory is added to Cleaver's district.  

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.


I don't follow
What's so interesting about that territory?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
It's a bit rural to be included in with Kansas City
I wouldn't have expected those counties to end up in with heavily urban territory.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
Yeah...
I was expecting it to be all of Jackson County and a bit of the suburbs to the north.

[ Parent ]
MO5, MO2
2 of those 3 counties are pretty moderate. Ray and Saline went for McCain by about 3 points each. Lafayette went for McCain by 15. They may be less red than the rest of Jackson county.

Looks like the new MO2 is a competitive district. St. Louis city and county put together had 411k votes for Obama and 226k for McCain. The current MO1 is D+27, so Obama got about 80% of the vote there. If you assume he got 80% in the new MO1 (probably too high) and that the new MO1 had as many total votes cast as the new MO2 (probably much too high), then the vote in new MO1 was roughly 254k for Obama and 64k for McCain, leaving 157k for Obama and 162k for McCain in the new MO2. So at most the new MO2 is about R+4, and it's probably bluer than that. To me that suggests that Akin is running for Senate, as his current district is R+9.

41, Ind, CA-05


[ Parent ]
So this map is 5-2-1?
Also, why would Akin give up that key chairmanship that's very lucrative for him?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I think so
It's possible to draw MO2 to clearly favor the Dems but the Republican committee chair wouldn't do that. The map didn't have much detail but it looks like the new MO1 is basically the old MO1 plus most of the rest of St. Louis. Akin has mentioned that he's considering running for Senate. Maybe he'd like to move up and think he has a better shot against McCaskill than Steelman or (heh) Martin would.  

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
The non-KC part of Jackson County went for McCain 50-49.


[ Parent ]
Yeah, that's not going to fly
Gov. Nixon would be a moron not to drop a big fat veto on that one. This is the Republicans' stab at a 1-6-1 map, which is a far worse deal than the Democrats should be willing to concede. And anything that substantially weakens Rep. Cleaver isn't going to win crucial support from black state legislators, to whom Republicans are looking for a shot at being able to override Nixon's veto.

I await the Democrats' response.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


[ Parent ]
Ohio house makes SB5 worse, Senate passes worse version...
The new version basically makes Ohio an at work state and prohibits payroll deductions for union pac dues, which is different than total payroll deduction, but still bad.

So, instead of listening to people and weakening the bill, they made it worse, upping the ante for citizen repeal.

Kasich is expected to sign the bill by Friday.  It won't go into effect until the referendum is settled (they only need 1,000 signatures to block it, which is probably already done), so at least we have that going for us.


Second minority-majority district proposed in Louisiana
http://www.nola.com/politics/i...

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

Ugh, methinks he wants a district for himself.
He probably screwed over Caxazyzou (I can't spell it for the life of me) and decided that this is the only way he has an opening.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Is there a map that goes with it?
Hard to make a mental picture of what Jackson wants.  Also, why is he an Indie?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Couldn't find a map for it
And I do agree that Jackson is drawing a seat for himself. He's an Independent because of his spoiler run in 2008 that caused Cazayoux not to win re-election.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
Should have said he stayed an Independent after his spoiler run


24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
Possible 2016 Presidential Candidates in 2016?
Members of Obama's cabinet. Like Hilda Solis or Kathleen Sebelius.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

...
Hilda Solis is not high profile enough. Kathleen Sebelius is from a small conservative state whose popularity there has no doubt plummeted after joining his administration.

Our 2016 nominee will likely be a governor of a moderate or large state. Other candidates will include a few senators and the typical mish-mash of nobodies.

Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer
Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo

There are few former governors on our side that will be young enough in 2016 to still make a run. The only name that jumps out is Tim Kaine, but if he loses a senate campaign you can count him out. Most of our senators are also too old, and younger senates are firmly backbench or uninteresting except for:

Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar
New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand
Virginia Sen. Mark Warner

Personally, my preferred ticket would be Cuomo-Klobuchar/Warner. I'd PREFER Cuomo-Gillibrand, but it isn't constitutionally acceptable.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.


[ Parent ]
(R)2016
I'd also really LOVE to see South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley as the other side's VP in 2016. She's very attractive.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
I'm in the belief that a woman will be the Democratic
Presidential nominee. Democrats have a strong field of possible woman candidates.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Good list
I'm thinking a ticket of Gov. Schweitzer and Sen. Gillibrand, in either configuration (both would make fine presidents or vice presidents), would be the equivalent of a Death Star superlaser to the Republican Party. It would be really, really difficult to run against that; Schweitzer brings rural, moderate cred, while Gillibrand is a superbly well-connected political chameleon from a big industrialized state, and both are extremely charming, personable, and charismatic in completely different ways.

I also really like Gov. Hickenlooper, though he's not as battle-tested yet as Schweitzer; both have the advantage of being from the swingy Mountain West, which will be a key battleground for the next 20 years at least. I do think it will be difficult for Gov. Cuomo to have much crossover appeal, especially after six years of soaking up Albany's political pollution, and he's more of a machine politician than Gillibrand, Schweitzer, Hickenlooper, or Sen. Klobuchar; he's not as affable or telegenic, even if he is a competent executive. He would be, like Sen. Warner, a stock East Coast Democrat who would probably be vulnerable against a Republican who "breaks the mold" like Gov. Martinez, Ambassador Huntsman, or Sen. Rubio.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


[ Parent ]
And I can't believe I forgot to note...
You left out Gov. O'Malley, who "announced" on his Facebook page that Donald "The Donald" Trump will be joining his administration as a goodwill ambassador - if he can pass a background check first. (April Fool's!)

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
I highly doubt Andrew Cuomo would
be our nominee in 2016. Someone like Kathleen Sebelius would have never given us Kansas had she not accepted the job in the administration. I merely suggested a few names from within the administration because they shouldn't be left out, but no doubt we have a strong bench outside of the administration.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Of the administration officials...
The one who I think has the most electoral promise is actually UN Ambassador Susan Rice.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Your so right.
I can't believe I left her out.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Do you think she would replace
Clinton as Secretary of State? That would be interesting going from one Rice to the other. I'd say the better one.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
The way NY progressives are responding to Cuomo's work thus far...
I'd be very surprised to see his credentials play well among grassroots liberals in Iowa. I've spoken to several Working Families Party leaders who want him ousted from their ballot line in 2014.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?


About the Site

SSP Resources

Blogroll

Powered by: SoapBlox