great map!

I made it, so I naturally think it is great!!!!

---

by: jscanaz @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 02:38:15 AM UTC

What about the Hopi?

I thought that not separating the tribes into 2 districts is a non-starter in Arizona?

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

---

by: OGGoldy @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 03:27:26 AM UTC

I think you can probably attach her pink district to the Hopi

It's just a matter of picking up the Colorado River, and then the 3000 or so people that live on the reservation itself, so it wouldn't require massive changes to the map. The Gosar/Navajo district would probably need to take a little more of Yavapai to make up for the population loss.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

---

by: MassGOP @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 03:35:51 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

They may have them in the same district..

There has been some interest expressed in it. If not, fixing this map would be easy. But I would perfer them to all be in AZ-01.

What do yall think of my new AZ-07? I like the design of it, but I hate the fact that it will make Raul stronger.

---

by: jscanaz @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 06:38:48 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Nice

I like that you put Yuma in with AZ-02. It's a white-majority, Republican county so it always seemed out of place in a Hispanic-majority, Democratic district.

I think Schwiekert would probably run in your AZ-06, so there would be two open seats for the GOP (2, 9) and one for the Democrats (5.)

How does Arizona redistrict again? This looks like a good commission map. If it's partisan, I'm guessing the Republicans will try for 6-2-Giffords, but if it's bipartisan 5-3-Giffords seems like a good compromise.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

---

by: MassGOP @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 03:28:09 AM UTC

Arizona is a commission.

Thankfully.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

---

by: OGGoldy @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 03:29:08 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

commission

This map doesn't violate any of the commission's standards, but it's probably too favorable to Dems to pass. The current map is 3R-2D-3 swing, but the swing districts all favor Reeps a bit. This map is 4R-3D-2 swing, but AZ1 is more purple and AZ8 will likely be blue in anything but a red wave year. I think it would likely be 5D-4R after 2012 as Gosar beat Kirkpatrick by just 6 in 2010 and she would probably beat him in this version of the district in more favorable year for Dems.

41, Ind, CA-05

---

by: sacman701 @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 05:13:01 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

you are right..

I did design AZ 1 to be a gop district, but gop leaning, but I think it is a bit to favorable to the dems. Any suggestion on how to make AZ-01 more gop but still swingy?

I ultimately hope a 5 gop to 4 dem map comes from this...

But on second thought, my az-05 is swingy, I think.. and my AZ 08 is probably a bit stronger dem then it is protrayed here.. so it may balance out.

---

by: jscanaz @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 06:35:47 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

who knows what the climate is

in az in 2012, but I would hate for it to turn out to be 6 to 3 R or 5 to 4 D...

---

by: jscanaz @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 06:36:45 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

AZ1

To make it more red, just leave 1-7-8 more like they are now. 1 keeps Yavapai, 8 keeps Cochise, 7 gets more of Pima.

41, Ind, CA-05

---

by: sacman701 @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 06:46:31 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Franks is running for Senate

http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

Arizona will now have three open seats.

---

by: davybaby @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 03:39:14 AM UTC

From the article

Franks' Senate announcement will come after a $250 morning fundraiser hosted by Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann and Sheriff Joe Arpaio.

ugh.  Winning this seat should be a huge priority for Dems, especially with Franks probably favored to win the GOP primary.

---

by: skaje @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 23:09:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I personally would love to

see 2010 political data for this map.  I think both  majority minority  seats are apparently lower in hispanic % then their 2010 census numbers.  AZ7 looks to be several % more R then before.  That's jut my eyeball guess.

---

by: rdelbov @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 12:16:16 PM UTC

AZ7

I think Grijalva would be all over that new seat. He got wrecked in Yuma and La Paz, losing 23k-13k. Take those out and he wins 67k-47k. This map has Giffords taking some of his Tucson areas that he likely did well in, but he should make that up with new Maricopa areas that are heavily Hispanic. I think he'd be safe with this map.

41, Ind, CA-05

---

by: sacman701 @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 15:56:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You could be right

and that's one reason I wanted to see data.  Its the Pinal county part that has my attention.  It looks like those precincts went heavy for Gozar in AZ1.  I can't say for sure if I am not an expert on AZ.  It looks like to me AZ7 gave up some good Tucson precincts and that was offset by losing Yuma & LaPaz.  If Congressman G picks up heavily R precincts in Pinal does that offset the few Maricopa precincts?

I believe per the 2010 census AZ7 was currently 57% hispanic (it gained over 2001 numbers) and this seat is 53% hispanic.  I suspect hispanic interests would not be pleased by those numbers and that's why I am curious about 2008 & 2010 numbers for this seat

---

by: rdelbov @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 16:35:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Pinal

Looks like that map mostly has him picking up the Casa Grande/Eloy area which is heavily Hispanic and at least in the past was pretty consistently Dem. The northeast county areas are more typical exurbs and they are going into AZ9. Grijalva would like to be rid of the northwest Pinal exurbs, but those are already in his district so leaving them in doesn't weaken his position any further.

41, Ind, CA-05

---

by: sacman701 @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 17:20:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

AZ7 and AZ4

Are less Hispanic then they were, but I think that is OK. The white population in both is very low.

And counterintuitively, I think the latino community in Arizona is better served being spread out a bit. And AZ Latinos aren't as Democratic as nationally, but that may change in 2012.

---

by: jscanaz @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 18:08:12 PM UTC

Kirkpatrickt

is running again! She will love my AZ-01.

I wouldn't be suprised if the Tucson majority, independent commission creates a map similar to mine.

---

by: jscanaz @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 18:10:24 PM UTC

I'm confused

This is californianintexas' diary but you're saying this is your map. Did she publish it for you?

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

---

by: MassGOP @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 18:28:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

we worked on it together...

she just wanted to publish it. she invited me to this site, and I can not post diaries yet.

---

by: jscanaz @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 18:34:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ah, cool

In that case, nice work!

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

---

by: MassGOP @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 22:25:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Most of the Arizona maps I am seeing

do one of two things

1) Weaken Schweikert to the point he'd probably lose, but make the new 9th district solid GOP and based in a nearby area.

2) Strengthen Schweikert considerably, but the new 9th district is a tossup.

Everyone else seems to more or less tread water, those are the two districts that seem to be the focus of redistricting the most.

I have yet to see a plausible map that assures Republicans of going 6-3 next year.  Whatever happens, it seems Democrats have a good shot at holding 4, or possibly even 5 districts if Kirkpatrick is successful at reclaiming AZ-01.

---

by: skaje @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 23:12:44 PM UTC

I cant really see this happening

, I've had the idea of taking Yuma from Grijalva's district, but that requires his district to grab more of the hispanic area of Maricopa County, and I think the commission would view a southern az district as more in a community of interest than a pima/maricopa district. I could see if they took out some of the most non hispanic areas of Yuma, but not the whole bit.

The two precincts in southern Pinal that are currently in Giffords district will not be broken off of northern Pima as they are considered part of the Tucson msa. It is unlikely that Sierra Vista and the D-M area of Tucson will be split since they certainly are a community of interest.

As noted by previous commentators, the Hopi res will likely be separated from the Navajo. Your cd 1 is also missing a piece of the san carlos res, though that may be a limitation of daves ap.

Your district 6 seems implausible. Eastern Mesa has more in common with other suburbs and exurbs nearby (Apache Junction, Gilbert, Queen Creek) then the far wealthier areas of Scottsdale, Fountain Hills and Paradise Valley.

Although this is an interesting thought, I just can't see it coming to pass.

---

by: azpoljunkie @ Thu Mar 31, 2011 at 05:20:26 AM UTC

go f!ck yourself

who the hell made you god to decide these things. fuc.k you

---

by: jscanaz @ Thu Mar 31, 2011 at 19:44:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

ugh

Flaming is an absolute no-no on this site. The post you're responding to wasn't out of line at all and is very typical of responses to proposed maps.

41, Ind, CA-05

---

by: sacman701 @ Thu Mar 31, 2011 at 20:26:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

i feel

someone will have a short stay here...

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

---

by: jncca @ Thu Mar 31, 2011 at 21:46:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I got comments

like azpolijunkie's all the time on my California redistricting maps, which is not necessarily a bad thing.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

---

by: californianintexas @ Fri Apr 01, 2011 at 01:53:51 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I was drunk..

when I poosted that comment. I apologize!

---

by: jscanaz @ Fri Apr 01, 2011 at 06:48:24 AM UTC

[ Parent ]