heh

So 2010 wasn't Kuster's last stand.

41, Ind, CA-05

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by: sacman701 @ Tue Mar 29, 2011 at 21:43:28 PM UTC

lolz

YEEEEA! ::crickets::

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by: Zeitgeist9000 @ Tue Mar 29, 2011 at 21:59:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

rimshot

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

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by: StephenCLE @ Tue Mar 29, 2011 at 23:17:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

nice

22, male, VA-10

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by: Bharat @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 17:29:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Right on!

Considering the 2010 margin, she can and should win in 2012 with a strong campaign.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

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by: LookingOver @ Tue Mar 29, 2011 at 21:46:29 PM UTC

Charlie Bass will give one reason to vote for him in 2012 (if he runs again):

"The terrorists want the Democrats to win!"

(Fun fact: He actually said that before losing back in 2006.)

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

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by: LookingOver @ Tue Mar 29, 2011 at 21:48:36 PM UTC

Sounds like he's a "Big Mouth Bass"

I'm slapping myself for making this comment.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

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by: Tarheeman1993 @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 00:05:40 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Eek.

Bass gets a lot of credit for being "moderate," but it's not a label that really fits him especially well.  He looks like what you'd expect an old-school staid WASP, Dartmouth grad (full disclosure: went there too) New Hampshire Republican in the Hugh Gregg mold to look and sound like; that particular ridiculous statement aside, he isn't especially known for obnoxious rhetoric.

That anyone would even give him that kind of cred is a sign of two things:
1. Abortion is way overblown as an indicia of "moderate" politics. Bass is something less than 100% with the anti-abortion folks (who, mind you, are not especially popular in NH) and as such is persona non grata with large portions of the conservative movement.
2. One could (sadly) at least make a non-frivolous argument that given all the concentrated high-octane lunacy coming out of Concord right now, and the increasing stridency of most of the GOP caucus on Capitol Hill, that Charlie Bass and his ilk really are what now passes for the middle of the road.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

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by: Answer Guy @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 03:07:03 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

That is good news n/t

Male, VA-08

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by: drobertson @ Tue Mar 29, 2011 at 22:06:16 PM UTC

Annie is a great candidate

I did a few days of volunteer work for her last fall, and it was heart-breaking how narrowly she lost. She is at the very top of my list of candidates I wanted to see running again in 2012, so I was thrilled to hear from her that she is going to run again. She'll be a great member of Congress.

--

What is up with candidate recruitment in NH-1? Much as I like Shea-Porter, she always struck me as a weak fundraiser and campaigner, so I'm not sure she would be the ideal candidate for a rematch. Any other names being circulated that people have heard?

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by: terje @ Tue Mar 29, 2011 at 22:40:47 PM UTC

RE: NH-1

Well any list starts with John Lynch, but I highly doubt he'd want to run for an office like this.

I'd like to see Michael Delaney, the current Attorney General to run for that seat, ideally. He seems to be enjoying his job though, and he's young, so he might not want to take a go at it.

Other than that, there's also Terie Norelli, our Minority Leader in the House of Representatives and former Speaker. There's also quite a few talented current and former mayors, such as Steve Marchand, Tom Ferrini (we don't know his party, but he's from Portsmouth so he's probably a Dem), and T.J. Jean (ditto, but Rochester). After that you'd probably have to go with Shea Porter or find someone outside of politics.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

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by: xcave @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 00:16:11 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Marchand

I recall some buzz for him in the early stages of the 2008 campaign against Sununu and nothing since. Would he be interested here and would he be strong?  

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by: conspiracy @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 00:48:26 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Judging from his Fbook profile

He seems more interested in March Madness than politics right now. I remember him holding political events at his home briefly after the 2010 election, though, so I don't think he's out of it completely. He could very well be looking at this race.

In terms of his strength, I'd say it depends. He has extremely strong connections throughout Rockingham County, which is the reddest part of the district. I'm just a little hesitant because Guinta is from Manchester and I guess I'd prefer someone who can run up the score along the traditional Democratic base regions along the 101 corridor.  

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

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by: xcave @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 02:09:15 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Should we be hoping for a Shea-Porter rematch?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 00:49:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hard to say

If I were to put in a guess right now, I'd say Lynch, Delaney, and Norelli are all preferable to Shea Porter, just because they come with around the same name recognition but have a higher ceiling wrt fund raising. I think Shea Porter is better than everyone else I can think of. If there's anyone from NH-01 wants to speak up, it would be appreciated (I'm not as into NH politics as I was before college, and even then I'm from NH-02).

Honestly, given Guinta's unpopularity though, I think Democrats will win this race with any reasonable candidate. It's just a question of doing it with as little effort (specifically from the DCCC) as possible.  

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

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by: xcave @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 02:02:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I remember reading on RRH

(that's Red Racing Horses, or basically red!SSP) something about a Shea-Porter scandal, which is why I'm asking.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 03:36:04 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't know if you'd classify it as a "scandal"

The story with Shea-Porter was that, according to Guinta (so take it with whatever grain of salt you deem necessary), she and her staff did nothing to prep the office for transition, and left Guinta with months' worth of unanswered constituent mail. Nothing against the law, just impolite and in contrast to what the majority of lame-duck congresspeople do in their last couple weeks in office. Take that for what it's worth, I suppose.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

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by: MassGOP @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 03:45:27 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oh, okay

so either just typical lack of preparation or a hearty F.U., depending on how you look at it.

Oh well.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 03:49:09 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oh, okay

so either just typical lack of preparation or a hearty F.U., depending on how you look at it.

Oh well.  Seems like a minor base turnout thing more than anything else (major base turnout, indie convincer, etc.).

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 03:49:47 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Portsmouth Mayor

How about Tom Ferrini? He seems well liked, and he's from the core Democratic stronghold in the area.

24, Gay Dude, Democrat, DC-AL

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by: SpaceCadet23 @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 03:42:58 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

this is great!

Our political action committee endorsed her in 2010 and I did some canvassing for her in Keane the weekend before the primary. She had a really impressive volunteer operation from what I saw. And of course she's great on all the issues.

Students for a New American Politics: the largest student-run PAC in the country. Check us out at snappac.org/blog

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by: Angel Eyes @ Tue Mar 29, 2011 at 22:55:09 PM UTC

also

Vivid illustration of a grassroots campaign: overall, Kuster outspent Bass about 2:1 (much of that during the primary). But Bass only spent about $33,000 on his ENTIRE payroll - the rest went to consultants, media buys, direct mail, etc. Kuster, on the other hand, spent $215,000 on payroll and another $18,000 on paid canvassing.

I can't prove it, but I'd certainly like to think that's the reason that Kuster fared so well while some other Democrats who spent just as much money did so poorly.

Students for a New American Politics: the largest student-run PAC in the country. Check us out at snappac.org/blog

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by: Angel Eyes @ Tue Mar 29, 2011 at 23:00:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

What specific

spending would be included in payroll?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

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by: b.j. @ Tue Mar 29, 2011 at 23:13:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Usually

Campaigns don't specify what people got paid to DO on their financial disclosure. If people are on staff, campaigns itemize the expense as "payroll"; if they're outside consultants, the item will be something like "consulting fee"; if they're one-time paid canvassers, the item will be called "canvassing". So payroll could include everything from the campaign manager to the treasurer, field organizers, etc.

Students for a New American Politics: the largest student-run PAC in the country. Check us out at snappac.org/blog

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by: Angel Eyes @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 15:39:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Democrats +1

If 2012 is in any way a decent year for the Democrats, NH-2 will be a pickup.  D+3 seat with a very strong candidate, in a district where Obama will probably romp.  

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

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by: StephenCLE @ Tue Mar 29, 2011 at 23:18:43 PM UTC

Kick his Bass!

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

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by: xcave @ Tue Mar 29, 2011 at 23:59:01 PM UTC

A rematch just might work

Bass doesn't seem that popular, his narrow margin in a Republican year seems proof of that.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

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by: DrPhillips @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 01:19:28 AM UTC

Exactly my feeling!

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by: DavidNYC @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 01:44:42 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

this

is very good news :)

btw, is it "kooster" or "custer" ?

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

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by: jncca @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 04:03:53 AM UTC

It's pronounced "Custer." (nm)

nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 13:11:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Obviously

- strongest possible candidate. Good pedigree, good race in bad 2010. If 2012 will be at least somewhat better then 2010(and, most likely - it will), and if right-wingers will at least partially sabotage a relatiely moderate Bass (and most likely - they will) - you have an excellent takeover possibility

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by: smoltchanov @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 04:11:06 AM UTC

Nice.

And this is definitely one seat where redistricting is going to have a marginal at best effect.  Making this more Republican makes NH-01, which is already shaky for Republicans, even more vulnerable.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

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by: TheUnknown285 @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 10:00:45 AM UTC

Yup

If it ever gets to a point where the seats are split 1R-1D for a protracted length of time, you may see horse trading to change the districts to reflect that.

It would certainly go against NH tradition, but I don't think it'd be as big an obstacle as one might think.

But in the present day, anything the Republicans could do to help Bass involves throwing Frank Guinta under the bus.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

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by: Answer Guy @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 14:06:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm thinking 2D-0R has a high likelihood of happening.

At the very least, 0D-2R isn't going to last very long, I don't think.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

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by: TheUnknown285 @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 14:40:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Given then near-equality of population between them..

The traditional boundaries of the districts (since 1883!) and the wildly swingy nature of NH politics, I'd be shocked to see a 1-1 delegation.

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42

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by: HoosierD42 @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 14:54:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

1-1

The partisan distribution is such that you can't really turn one district deep red and the other deep blue. But Lord knows people get creative sometimes when they have an incentive.

I haven't tried it yet, but I think you could produce two districts split in a similar fashion that would confer a more significant advantage for Democrats on the western district, and a more significant advantage for Republicans on the eastern district.

What makes this hard is that it'd be tough to get the bluer towns in NH-01 into NH-02 because of where they are. Most of the border between the districts is reddish towns.  

But I can't predict the future per se. The 2nd has been friendlier to Dems since the 1990s, but that would have surprised many people of an earlier era. Nashua is a little more Dem than Manchester; the 3/93 corridor towns have stayed far more loyal to the GOP than most of the Upper Valley or Monadnock area towns have.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

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by: Answer Guy @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 16:22:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The last quoted paragraph is political genius

Bout damn time someone stood up and said, we're fiscally responsible, too, and we are better at yet than the GOP.  ::nods::  Yes, yes we are.

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by: Andrew @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 10:28:03 AM UTC