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Virginia Redistricting Plan

by: mahimahi1414

Tue Mar 29, 2011 at 4:48 PM EDT


Looks like it's up

http://redistricting.dls.virgi...
mahimahi1414 :: Virginia Redistricting Plan
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Virginia Redistricting Plan | 82 comments
Nevermind not quite yet.
The maps now are the current lines... but supposedly it should be ready later today.

20 M MD-01
Supposedly actually out now
But the site is still down...

20 M MD-01
[ Parent ]
Not loading
Seems to be too much traffic or something because it's not loading. And it looks like the site may have actually taken the link down for the State Senate map, perhaps to fix it since it wasn't loading.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05
At least you didn't rickroll us
That was just evil.

Male, VA-08
Yeah, he got me, too
Bastard.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05
[ Parent ]
Site is loading really slowly
but looking at NOVA the Dems really went to town.  My Senate district goes from the Pentagon to Sterling, and is about 2 miles wide and 25 miles long

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08
YES!
I did that to a number of districts up there when I drew my map.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05
[ Parent ]
NLS Tweets
Says that part of Loudon County was combined with Arlington. This is already shaping up to be a good Dem gerrymander then. If they were willing to do that kind of thing, they can solidify their slight majority.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05
Solidify and...
raise the ceiling for winnable districts this year.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
If anyone can view the maps
How about posting some screenshots?
I can't get much of anything to load.
Ugh.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05
[ Parent ]
I'm not seeing where the new ones
are even supposed to be.
[ Parent ]
Good, I'm not the only one
Earlier I saw a link under the plans list to Janet Howell's map, which I'm assuming is the Dem map. I clicked on it and it never loaded. When I refreshed, there was no link for it, just the ones for the current districts. And I keep getting that every time I reload. I've exited browsers, tried different browsers. Nothing seems to work.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05
[ Parent ]
I'm not getting anything either n/t


Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
Here's some music while we wait
Hahahahah good song and excellently themed n/t


24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05
[ Parent ]
I actually heard that song a couple days ago and was reminded of redistricting
It was one of those "You know you've been on SSP too much when..." moments.

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
I have stuff to go do now
That's good news for the rest of you, though. As soon as I leave, the maps are guaranteed to show up.
I hear you
I have an Italian final tomorrow and a 20 page paper due in three days. And it's 11:36 pm local time. This definitely has served as a distraction.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05
[ Parent ]
I have it loaded, but it won't let me save a screen shot
2 other hilarious gerrymanders

Dave Marsden's district borders Dulles Airport and Lake Barcroft

George Barker's goes from Clifton to the City of Alexandria

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08

If you're using Windows
Open up the snipping tool, use that to capture the map, and copy-paste it into Paint.
[ Parent ]
Thanks
but the site just crashed on me.  Now we're all in the dark together.

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08
[ Parent ]
Its back up
Photobucket

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08
[ Parent ]
i still can't view it

Its a TRAP!!!!
There is no way either of these maps can sail into law. There is going to be a public outcry against them, and McDonnell has played this like a master chess player. By building up his commission and its criteria, holding the competition, and then getting the state to publish and the media to report on the maps there are ready made alternatives for both houses. Alternatives that don't require any future commitment to non-partisan redistricting or concessions on the congressional side.

I am starting to think he played both the Democrats and the Republicans for fools.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

Also Note
That the Senate GOP still submitted a counter-proposal while the House Dems didn't bother. That will stand them very poorly when the VAGOP gets some voters to challenge the senate map.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent
[ Parent ]
Trap
Would McDonnell break the gentleman's agreement and veto the gerrymanders. It could very well be worth it for the Republicans since they're pretty close to winning the State Senate pre-gerrymander..

See: Mississippi redistricting

[ Parent ]
He was never party to said agreement
It was between the GOP leadership in the HOD, the Democrats in the senate, and the Congressional Delegation. He can make them all look bad simultaneously. He basically invited them to behave as disgracefully as possible and then they obliged.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent
[ Parent ]
Re: Outcry
I doubt there'll be much of a public outcry.  Worse stuff has passed elsewhere.  Redistricting is consummate inside baseball; lots of grousing about it but it never really seeps into the public consciousness.  
[ Parent ]
People would have said the same thing in MS
But look at it from McDonnell's perspective:

Vetoing,

1. Makes him a hero to good government groups
2. Generates a positive news cycle
3. Gives the Democrats nothing to run on for the fall other than that they tried to screw with the senate maps
4. Sets himself up nice nationally while also maximizing the odds of winning the senate next year. And if worst comes to worst he can still compromise then or go for a court map.

Its utterly win-win for him.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

[ Parent ]
The difference
is that the VA GOP is the one who stands to lose quite a bit should a court end up drawing the map.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
This is very unlikely, IMO
Calling for fair redistricting in the state leg but not for congress would be inexplicably weird. If McDonnell wants to go for fair redistricting, I say let him. I would trade the state senate for 1-2 house seats and a shot at picking up the state house in the future.

As for using this against the Democrats, it doesn't help McDonnell that the Democratic senate has repeatedly passed fair redistricting laws that died because of the GOP.

Male, VA-08

[ Parent ]
McDonnell won't seriously contest a gerrymander
His commission was a sham; he put it together after the time for reforming the process had passed, it was just to burnish a "moderate" image. He won't risk the wrath of the House Republicans by vetoing the map, and if this really is a bipartisan agreement, the veto would easily be overridden.
[ Parent ]
Interesting how he turned out
Since he can't run for another term, I thought McDonnell would spent his governorship throwing red meat to the base in an attempt to build a conservative profile for a 2016 presidential run. Instead, he's had a pretty quiet term, save for the Confederate History Month flap that I think was really some speechwriter's fault. Instead, it's been Christie who's become the national figure, when I figured he would hunker down as a moderate in a blue state.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
I'd always thought that he was waiting until he took back the state senate in 2011
But if this incumbent protection thing happens, that doesn't seem like it will happen. At this point I think he's hoping to be chosen as the VP candidate for the GOP in 2012, but he hasn't really done anything to set himself up for that except for being from a swing state.

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
Um, are you an empath all of the sudden?
Go back to Betazed!

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
For anybody who still can't see it

Here's Richmond. I will try to have more screens up later.

Male, VA-08
Biggest change seems to be the 8th
a new Dem Seat shifted from VA Beach

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08
[ Parent ]
Yeah
That was a good move. Richmond definitely had enough Democrats to support another Democratic district.

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
Just based on a quick scan
I'd say that the Dems did a decent job of drawing a favorable map. Not sure they did enough in NoVA, though.  
[ Parent ]
The 17th

Senator R Edward Houck (D-Spotsylvania) gets safer by picking up part of Ablemarle county and losing the most GOP friendly areas of his old district. If I'm drawing it right in DRA it is now either 49-50% Obama (old district was 45% Obama).

Male, VA-08
The 38th

Phil Puckett (D-Lebanon) gets marginally safer, going from a 39% Obama district to a 41% Obama district. I had wondered if they were going to be aggressive and throw Blacksburg into his district, but I guess they decided not to.  

Male, VA-08
Damn
That's a tough district for a Dem. Hopefully he has a big personal vote.  
[ Parent ]
Damn
That's a tough district for a Dem. Hopefully he has a big personal vote.  
[ Parent ]
It's the best he could do
That area is the definition of "ancestrally Democratic". It still is friendly to some Democrats; Mark Warner actually won it by a larger margin than he won statewide.  

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
They couldn't really
If they wanted to keep John Edwards seat fairly safe, Blacksburg had to stay in it. Dems are writing Puckett's district off in the long run, I would say.

NLS doesn't like things one bit, btw.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

[ Parent ]
Of course he doesn't
He'd rather there be a permanent minority of 15 Senators from inner NoVa and the black parts of Richmond and Hampton Roads than try to maintain a majority.
[ Parent ]
I hear you there
Typically pessimistic assessment, I'd say.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05
[ Parent ]
I'm trying to read NLS's blog on this....
And he says they are "imploding".  He also says that this isn't safe enough (even though the map uses 2009 Gubernatorial numbers) and that they will lose the Senate because of this.  It's quite insipid.

Also, what do you mean?  When has he suggested such a thing that you said about a "permanent minority"?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
The whining about diluting Arlington districts
because apparently "representing young Democrats in Arlington" and having packed-in Democratic districts is more important than keeping control of the Senate.
[ Parent ]
It is comical to read
I mean give it a break. I live in Alexandria and am young and am fine with splitting up Alexandria. Keeping the Senate in Dem hands is far more important to me than keeping a 70% Alexandria district intact. If these districts move to 60% democratic and they are lost it shows the weakness of our candidate if they can't get out and convince their own voters to come out and vote for them; young or old.

I would like to think that lowering some of these Democratic percentages will force these incumbents to go out and campaign and be visible which will help raise their profile and help develop our pathetic bench.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

[ Parent ]
No, they could keep Edwards safe
I drew a map that kept Edwards in a 58% Obama district by taking his district over to take in the African-American parts of Lynchburg. It could have happened, but it would have been ugly. I agree that it is probably a better idea to write off his district, because no matter what you do it is probably going R once Puckett retires.  

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
Ah
Yeah that would work I guess but you're right, it would be vicious, especially when not shooting for a majority-minority district, which is the best excuse for such a move.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05
[ Parent ]
Edwards wouldn't necessarily need Blacksburg or Lynchburg to get reelected
Back in the 90s, his district consisted of Roanoke City and part of Roanoke County.  In both of his elections in the 90s (1995 (when he beat a Republican incumbent) and 1999), he outperformed typical Democratic performance in both the city and the county.  He actually won the Roanoke County portion of his district when he was reelected in 1999.  I imagine that he'd be favored to win reelection in a compact district that included all of Roanoke City and Salem City and part of Roanoke County.  However, in such a district, he'd actually have to campaign for reelection, and I'm not sure he'd be happy with it.  

25, Male, Eurasian American, Democrat, VA-11 (current residence), VA-09 (college)
[ Parent ]
The Virginia Public Access Project
The House of Delegates map
is an incumbent protection one.  Figures.  They won a lot in 2009 and redistricting this year was about trying to find ways to protect them instead of fishing for new opportunities.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Sen. McWaters is going down.
His seat is turning into one that voted for McDonnell by 66% to one that voted for Deeds with a slim majority.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
It would be great if they used a more neutral metric
than the 2009 gubernatorial election.
[ Parent ]
Like the 2006 Senate race?
Kinda far off, but still was down to the wire and fairly recent.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Wow, is Sen. Watkins on crack?
His map draws Dems into GOP areas and Repubs into Dem areas.
http://www.vpap.org/updates/re...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Yeah, wtf?
Four Democrats in 70-74% McDonnell districts and four Democrats in 60-64% Deeds districts? What is he trying to do?

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
maximize Democratic districts
Without regards to residency of candidates.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
Looking at the Dem map
Hampton Roads - the 7th would probably be a swing district. They drew ex-Del. Joe Bouchard into the district, smart move there. John Miller in the 1st gets a much better district; looks like it's Williamsburg, most of Newport News, and part of James City County.

Richmond - The new 8th would probably be pretty solidly Democratic.

Southside - Roscoe Reynolds got shored up, but the 20th is still a Republican-leaning district. I don't know why they didn't try to put some more Democrats in there.

NoVA - The 29th looks surprisingly solid, though I'm still concerned about Jackson Miller (he might not make the jump, though, if he's concerned about the district's lean). All the squiggly Fairfax districts make my eyes hurt, but they all look pretty Democratic.

Now, looking at the Republican proposal
Wow, this is awful.

NoVa - Arlington and Alexandria are packed into two districts. I could see the 26th and 21st fall in a bad year. Houck's district gets carved up. He could still win there, but it would be tough.

SWVA - Edwards' district also gets cut up. Blacksburg is put in with some of the border counties (and Salem), while Roanoke is put in with the heavily-Republican suburbs and Botetourt County. Deeds is drawn out of his district.

Southside - Roscoe Reynolds' district is quite possibly made even more Republican.

Hampton Roads - John Miller is drawn in with Mamie Locke. Ralph Northam is drawn into a district that includes Poquoson and the Republican parts of Hampton.

The Democrats would be lucky to get 15 seats out of that map.

And now, the House map
This is going to be painful.

Hampton Roads - Paula Miller is drawn in with Lynwood Lewis. Robin Abbott gets a tougher district; everyone's saying she's gone, but I think she could still win there. The 64th is gone when Barlow retires, but that was going to happen anyway.

Southside - Ward Armstrong's district is gone. Good riddance. The black wards of Lynchburg are put in one of the most Republican districts in the state. Nice.

SWVA - Bud Phillips and Joe Johnson have been drawn in together. Soon, Onzlee Ware and Jim Shuler are going to be the only Democrats left west of Charlottesville. Speaking of which, Albemarle is again carved up to prevent more than one Democrat from being elected there.

Richmond - Not much to say here, looks like they couldn't draw out any Democrats.

NoVa - It looks like one of the new districts is going to be a battleground; the new 2nd consists of eastern Prince William and northern Stafford. Definitely an Obama district (around 58%), but one where Democrats downballot would likely underperform. Republican freshmen in the 34th, 51st and 67th look to be helped out a bit. I'm not seeing any Democrats drawn out of their districts here, so I guess the Republicans knew to leave well enough alone. New 10th and 87th should be pretty Republican districts.

Overall, it does not look good for the Democrats. I was thinking the numbers would stay pretty much the same, but I'm thinking now the Republicans are on track for around 65 seats, unless the Democrats can pick off any of the NoVa Republicans.

Maps from the Virginian-Pilot
http://hamptonroads.com/2011/0...

Not numbered, but much quicker than the DLS site.

Impression?
From what I'm reading it seems...

1. The Dems failed to make a strong enough map to keep their majority, and likely made a map so weak they will likely not regain it in the next decade

2. The Democrats also failed to not get a House map to McDonell possibly opening themselves to commission redistricting which could be worse.

3. Republicans managed to submit a map that will likely lock in 70 plus seats in the House, and a map in the senate that locks Democrats down to 15 seats?

Is this all true?

29/D/Male/NY-01

You shouldn't read just NLS
The GOP House map locks in 65-66 seats (assuming NoVA Republicans hang on).

This map allows them to attain a 23-17 majority this year, with an outside chance of 24-16.  If they drew the map as ugly as possible to boost their chances as much as possible, the outcry would be deafening for McDonnell to turn back on their deal and veto it.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
Also, although
Puckett's seat is made marginally more Democratic, it is still the kind of district a Dem like him can win handily.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
VA
Ah ok, glad for the clarification.  It still stinks that we will be down 8-3 or 7-4 in the house in such a swing  state, but bad representation in swing states sadly seems normal now (Ohio, Florida, Penn etc.) at least we have the senate in VA.

29/D/Male/NY-01
[ Parent ]
I live here, it sucks, but we live to fight another decade......
We're going to need more nonwhite voters to flood the zone to really change Virginia downballot.

What makes Virginia tough is that state and local elections are off-year.  That really makes it harder for Democrats than if we coincided with the federal races like almost all other states (yes I know there are a very few other exceptions).  We just have a perpetual turnout problem for state legislative elections and also the statewide races.  And that explains why the state is inching blue federally before it does so at the state level; we never get to piggyback our state and local stuff on to the federal elections.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
My reaction is this:
politicians may be stupid about a lot of things, but they understand the consequences of redistricting. This map looks sufficiently favorable to the Dems.
[ Parent ]
Tekzilla, I'd like to know where your point #1 comes from......
The only person I'm seeing make the argument that the Dems' state Senate map is weak is Ben Tribbett over at his blog NLS.  But he has an ulterior motive of wanting to run for state Senate himself which is problematic in the new SD-31 where he (and now I) live.

Everyone here who has studied the state Senate map thinks it's pretty good.

Are you just going by Ben?  Ben is brilliant in understanding the districts and precincts and voting, but his judgment is constantly clouded by having countless axes to grind.  It's awful hard to know when to take him seriously.

Ben claimed on NLS the state Senate Dems could have drawn a map with 16 or so truly safe seats, about 5 more than this map, and still had plenty of swing seats left over to keep their majority.  Some of us there asked him to show his work, which he hasn't done yet...don't know if he ever will.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
NLS
just claimed on twitter that the Republican proposal for the Senate was "fair."  Dems would probably have 16 seats under that plan.  Ridiculous.

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08
[ Parent ]
Uhhhhh....what?
That plan packs Democrats as much as possible and was clearly not made with a serious mind.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
And I had a tweet exchange with him in response to that......
Ben asserts the GOP plan "looks good" for Democratic incumbents.  I replied asking if it looks good for all of them, or at least all but the safest ones (i.e., the safest ones can bleed some Democratic voters for the benefit of more marginal ones).

We have no room for error, we need to hold 22 seats, giving us margin for losing one and still keeping control.

Ben is going to have to make a stronger case than he has, because frankly it's not credulous on its face to suggest the state Senate Dems fucked themselves with their own map.  You gotta prove that, and Ben hasn't come close.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Reading that and other reaction
around the "progressive" blogosphere spouting supposed good government bullshit makes me want to stick my head in a microwave.  I have a sinking feeling this is going to get screwed up somehow.

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08
[ Parent ]
Screw those people
Honestly, I used to be more like them. But politics is an arena of power; if one side (the GOP, at least in VA) has no qualms about shutting your side out by any means necessary, then you must do the same. In politics, if you're not first, you're last.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05
[ Parent ]
VA Pilot
has the proposed maps on google maps here  

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08
When is the Congressional map coming?
I feel like we know, for the most part, what it will look like, but it will be interesting to see the finished product anyway.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
I certainly have a selfish interest in seeing it
I think I'm gonna keep a little scorecard...

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
I have a more selfish interest than most, with a very dramatic potential shift......
The proposal that leaked before would shift my representation in McLean from Frank Wolf to Jim Moran.  A huge and happy shift if it happens.  And it surely will make Republicans in my neighborhood go apeshit, much to my delight.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Virginia Redistricting Plan | 82 comments

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