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Redistricting Arkansas: One map! Two maps! Three Glorious Maps!

by: Johnny Longtorso

Tue Mar 29, 2011 at 2:16 PM EDT

Everyone was aghast at the proposed map that came out of one of the houses of the Arkansas legislature recently. The consensus seemed to be that it was a dummymander, as likely to end up with a 4-0 Republican delegation as it was a 3-1 Democratic delegation. I would argue that 2-2 split would be the safest, and sanest, way to draw the map. So I've come up with a few maps that would likely give that split.

Johnny Longtorso :: Redistricting Arkansas: One map! Two maps! Three Glorious Maps!

Map 1: A Bipartisan Compromise

AR-01 (blue) - 65 McCain, 32 Obama
AR-02 (green) - 51 McCain, 48 Obama.
AR-03 (purple) - 64 McCain, 34 Obama.
AR-04 (red) - 56 McCain, 41 Obama.

In this map, AR-01 is ceded to the Republicans, AR-02 is made more of a swing district, AR-03 remains pretty much the same, and AR-04 is made slightly more Democratic.

The problem with this one is that AR-04 remains vulnerable. With Ross exiting the seat in 2014 to run for Governor, it would be a tough seat to hold. On the other hand, AR-02 becomes easier to pick up.

Map 2: Let's Make the White Democrats Unhappy

This map includes the Fayetteville tentacle from the proposed map. AR-02 is redrawn into a black-heavy Mississippi+Little Rock district. I don't have numbers on this one handy, unfortunately, but AR-02 easily becomes an Obama district, probably around 55-44 Obama. AR-04 moves slightly to the Democrats, I'd guess it's about 57-41 McCain.

This would please the black Democrats in the legislature; they've been pushing for a district that gives them a shot of electing one of their own to Congress. Of course, the white Democrats would not be happy with this arrangement, as many of them would be shut out of the chance to go to Congress.

Map 3: Let's Make the Black Democrats Unhappy

AR-01 (blue) - 53 McCain, 45 Obama
AR-02 (green) - 66 McCain, 32 Obama
AR-03 (purple) - 64 McCain, 34 Obama
AR-04 (red) - 53 McCain, 45 Obama

Third and finally is a map designed to elect two Blue Dog type Democrats. In this map, Little Rock is added to Mike Ross's district (putting Griffin in with him, but Griffin could just move to the safe Republican AR-02), while AR-01 is reconfigured by shedding some of the Crawford-friendly counties to the north and adding some Dem-friendly counties to the south. Ross would probably not be happy with Little Rock in his district, but he's only got one more primary to get through until he can go run for Governor and be out of our hair. The advantage here is an open AR-04 would not be an almost-automatic flip to the Republicans; the Democrats would have a good shot at retaining the seat.

Now, as the white Democrats got the shaft in the last map, this map gives it to the black Democrats. AR-01's VAP is only 28% black, and AR-04's is 23% black, which would make it tough for one of the black legislators to win a primary in either district.

So there you go, three ideas, all of which are, in my opinion, better than the one proposed by the actual legislators.

Tags: Redistricting, Arkansas, 2012, (All Tags)

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Redistricting Arkansas: One map! Two maps! Three Glorious Maps! | 22 comments

I think most of us at SSP are pushing for map 2

I, at least, don't have much confidence in the ability of Arkansas Dems to retake either AR-1 or AR-2, if they are both kept close to their current partisan composition, as has been proposed.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

by: Marcus @ Tue Mar 29, 2011 at 18:24:05 PM UTC

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Agree.

Mike Ross is pretty much worthless, as would be his successor. He votes with Boehner more than Pelosi. Probably best to have one progressive Democrat from Arkansas and give up on the rest.

24, Male, GA-05

by: cilerder86 @ Tue Mar 29, 2011 at 22:00:30 PM UTC

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Agreed

Hopefully one of these maps makes it through, or something akin to them. That proposal we saw was awful.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

by: SaoMagnifico @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 00:16:53 AM UTC

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Great maps

and great comments. Thanks for Posting.

The so called "Pigtail map" looks to be grinding to a halt in AR. Fayetteville legislators are catching heck from this plan. Here's the gist of it with the number of votes added to each district from the 2008 results.

1st district roughly more then 1700D under this map
2nd district is roughly more 1000 votes more D under this map

4th district is roughly 2300 more D
3rd district is about 5000 votes more R

These districts had 250,000 votes in them in 2008. The Pigtail map moves less then 1% in each district. Plus the two freshman get less help then Mike Ross and he's a 5 term incumbent. What gives? This is a mighty wimpy move IMO. I think the three GOP incumbents can win under this map and if Ross runs for Gov in 2014 that seat could easily go GOP.

The Democrats need to man up and go with one of your maps if they want to be effective.

by: rdelbov @ Tue Mar 29, 2011 at 18:30:17 PM UTC

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Catching hell from whom?

And why call it the "Pigtail map" as if it were something to disdain? Compared to many partisan maps, this one is fairly clean.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
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by: LookingOver @ Tue Mar 29, 2011 at 18:52:04 PM UTC

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They have until April 1st to figure it out

Rather or not Democrats from Fayetteville will vote for the move to the 4th is not known, so the legislature might pass an alternative map that is 2-2.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

by: DrPhillips @ Tue Mar 29, 2011 at 19:11:16 PM UTC

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Dustin McDaniel

is the perceived Democratic candidate for 2014 gubernatorial race.

by: jwaalk @ Tue Mar 29, 2011 at 19:50:31 PM UTC

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Who?

Never heard of him before.

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by: LookingOver @ Tue Mar 29, 2011 at 19:51:52 PM UTC

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He's the state's Attorney General.

He's the big rising star in the party. He was elected to the state house in 2004 at the age of 30, then was elected Attorney General in 2006 at age 32, and reelected easily last year. He also has a strong local base in Jonesboro, (AR-01), and high statewide name recognition.

The perception I've gotten from people I know in Arkansas, including some ex-associates of Jimmie Lou Fisher (who I got to know from doing an interview as part of a project to document Arkansas politicians, the associates, not Mrs. Fisher), people kind of expect Ross to be a long term house member and hold down that area for Democrats. I haven't heard much about him running for Governor.

by: jwaalk @ Tue Mar 29, 2011 at 19:59:21 PM UTC

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Good.

Sounds much better than Ross already.

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by: LookingOver @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 00:41:10 AM UTC

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He's from Jonesboro

If Map # 3 is implemented, he might go for AR-01.

After all, there is precedent for an Arkansas Attorney General to run for Congress. In 1976, AG Jim Guy Tucker successfully ran for AR-02, opening up the AG race for a young law professor from the University of Arkansas named Bill Clinton.

by: davybaby @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 04:01:35 AM UTC

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He's the state Atty. General

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

by: DrPhillips @ Tue Mar 29, 2011 at 19:59:53 PM UTC

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Yeah, but during the whole flap about the map that got released

it was reported that Mike Ross was telling everyone he was planning on running for Governor in 2014.

by: Johnny Longtorso @ Tue Mar 29, 2011 at 20:12:27 PM UTC

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Weird?

Does Arkansas throw us off so much because of how badly Obama brings down the Dem brand there? As compared to if another Dem was President and white?
Because I wonder if the PVI numbers are not the best measure for the present environment. Like on the state side Mike Beebe is very popular and didn't have to even try to get reelected, perhaps the state dems and national dems have a sharp divide?

by: notifier @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 00:08:37 AM UTC

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It's not an Obama problem.

At least not entirely. Arkansas is just trending away from us. Obama did worse than Kerry, who did worse than Gore, who did worse than Clinton, who did worse (in terms of margin) in 1996 than in 1992. If you take Clinton out of the mix, then the pattern is mostly still there: Kerry and Obama did worse than Dukakis.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

by: TheUnknown285 @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 09:46:32 AM UTC

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I think I am in the minority.

But I really think something like Map #3 is what should be done. Obama greatly underperforms generic-D in this state, at least for now. I think making Ross's seat winnable for a Democrat in 2014 is important, as is making a second district that has good odds at going to team blue. The three-seat map just screams dummymander, but trying your best to get 2 Dem seats, like in map #3 is what the ARDP should do.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

by: OGGoldy @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 00:15:37 AM UTC

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democrats r screwing themselves

Democrats are screwed in the south for obvious racial reasons. These stupid, blue-dog, conserva-dems are ensuring their own destruction. This map is a complete dummymander that will ensure a 4-0 republican map. Who the hell cares about Mike Ross; he is going to retire in 2014 to run for governor, why does he have any say at all? They could have combined Little Rock, Jefferson county, and the delta to create a liberal district to ensure 1 member in the delegation. Now they will have none. The best chance liberals have now is for the black caucus to work with republicans to draw a 1D to 3R map. I cannot believe that I am hoping for republicans to save the democrats from themselves. FML!

by: mjdanish @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 05:18:52 AM UTC

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I don't know if it's racially motivated as much as it is overly ambitious

2-2 should have been the goal, simply for the fact that Democrats need to maximize seats where they have control, as Republicans are gerrymandering in many states. The Republicans actually wanted to create a racial gerrymander, but the black caucus didn't go for it.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

by: DrPhillips @ Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 05:43:30 AM UTC

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I'm sorry, but you know nothing

about Arkansas. You're assumptions are totally off-base.

by: jwaalk @ Thu Mar 31, 2011 at 20:50:14 PM UTC

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Please elaborate.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
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by: LookingOver @ Thu Mar 31, 2011 at 20:53:48 PM UTC

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Just his idiotic

trashing of conservative Democrats and his ranting about how Democrats in the state are doomed and need to give up 3 seats to the Republican just so they can send a "good" Democrat to congress with a safe seat containing Little Rock and the delta and parts of south AR.

I think the current map is pretty good. And if Ross does make a crazy run for Governor, (his behavior during the healthcare debate, mainly the corrupt dealings liberals brought to light out of frustration with him, have severely tarnished him and I doubt he could get get past Dustin McDaniel in a primary. And even if he did, I like the set up of this new map. State Senator Sue Madison would have a place to move up. She's currently the most Senior member of the State Senate. She was elected in a highly contested 2002 special election, and then reelected in a contested 2004 General Election, and easily reelected again in 2008. She's from Fayetteville and has a very strong base there, and is pretty moderate overall. She's currently one of the more powerful women in the state. With Fayetteville in Ross's district now, I feel good about her odds of holding the seat in that configuration should he run for Governor. Especially since Texarkana and El Dorado still have a pretty strong Democratic lean when it comes to in-state candidates. The 1st is a stretch, but I think its unfair to not give the many other strong Dems in the district a chance because the odious insider Chad Causey lost in a terrible cycle after a brutal primary, (but I'm glad he won it, there's no way Woolridge wouldn't have switched parties. The guy was known, in the State Senate, as being the "leader" of the Conservative faction of the Arkansas Democratic party), I think they still have plenty of possible options to take the district, which is much more Democratic on a local level than it appears. The Republican party still, even after this year, has almost no local base or apparatus anywhere in this district. Causey's loss was more a result of the cycle and the primary than the Republican party's actual strength there.

I actually think Griffin will be the hardest person to beat, because his district, besides containing Little Rock, also contains the Little Rock Suburbs, which are, aside from the Bentonville-Springfield area, the area of the state where Republicans are strongest on a local level and best organized. Wealthier, and much fewer crossover votes than elsewhere in the state.

by: jwaalk @ Thu Mar 31, 2011 at 22:50:45 PM UTC

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Thanks

I hope Pryor is in communication with the State Senate on a map that hurts Griffin more if he's such a threat.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
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by: LookingOver @ Fri Apr 01, 2011 at 02:10:05 AM UTC

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